₦airaland Forum

Kobojunkie:
It is good that you are attempting to break this situation down to where a primary 6 student would understand it. I would even support the distribution of information of that sort to help educate the masses on the situation. But it is wrong that you do it from a point of ignorance yourself. You need to have a clear and unbiased understanding of the situation to approach it. 😐

nairalanda1:
When you have no means of confronting me with facts, you resort to primary school level type of argument.

I left primary school ages ago, so I am just looking at you, a full grown adult, regressing.

Like I said, companies need to make a profit to run effectively. What you are suggesting was tried in many countries, and it led to their collapse economically.

And in Nigeria we subsidsied sugar, and we lost our domestic sugar industry and it took twenty years for it to find its feet again after the subsidy was removed. Same for phones, and we essentially lost Nitel , and same thing for electricity which is why we do not have light.


You are arguing for nothing, because you know you have nothing to argue against me.

Yinmu all grammar, no substance.

Nairalanda1, you go explain taya. No evidence

That money wey una dey chop na for all Nigerians. We must redistribute it for the benefit of all. You will continue to jump from one thread to the other but the fact be say Nigerians don sabi that thing wey una sabi

Validated:
Many have said Atiku's plan to return subsidies was a desperate plan, specifically to win elections. Yes, to win elections, you must be strategic and I think Atiku may have unwittingly garnered over 5 - 10 million votes by this singular statement.

Let's look at it this way, if Nigerians can be assured that prices will drop by 30-40%, why would they not want that? That is exactly what Atiku's plan offers. Unfortunately, I expected Peter Obi to ride on the same wave, but apparently, he would rather not tackle the backlash as "copycat". My question is, What is Wrong with that?

Many have argued that Atiku's plan lacks management controls and would push us into another round of arbitrage. I say NO. The former subsidies regime was based on import and Port validation. I would suggest that Atiku should base subsidies payment at the PUMP, rather than the Dock and Port.

At the pump, every litre attracts VAT, as such that becomes the benchmark for recovery, not imported or produced volume. As such if you produce or import and send it to Benin or Cameroon, you get 0 subsidies rebates. Simple as that. If your pump does not provide VATable volume, you get 0 subsidies rebates.

The tickling effect would be lower prices that would benefit the common man on the streets, not a few "buzzuers" and big time thieves.

I wholeheartedly support the recalibration of the subsidies process.

Op, I'm loving this your idea a lot. I took the liberty to post the link to this thread to an earlier one I made today just to provide better insight.
https://www.nairaland.com/8735813/primary-six-pupils-guide-fuel/4#140453476

I love the healthy debates it has provoked and I wish the Nlfpmod will take this thread to the front page to further deepen the debate. Frankly I don't care who wins next year's election but subsidy has simply got to come back but in a structured and corruption-free way. Thank you.

Kobojunkie:
As expected, you misconstrue what is said so you can escape with what you wanted to believe all along. 😐😐😐

The former fuel subsidy program benefited the rich more than it did the poor, thanks to your Mother Nigerian being a psychopathic bitch to her children. We all knew this. 😐😐

Why all the bile?
I said have a good day, why griping?

People are now beginning to think 🤔...
I like this.. no, I love it. Read the nairaland link below:
https://www.nairaland.com/8736124/subsidies-recalibration-atikus-masterstroke-great#140453414

Disclaimer: I no know the op and he no know me, but this is what I meant by saying the details of working out a fool-proof and auditable subsidy program can be done for the benefit of everybody.

Gotocourt:
Sheikh Yahaya Jingir don pocket #600M. The next bandits chop 2X2 .

Who no know go know
Dem no dey telli person

Kobojunkie:
1. Your "mother" Nigeria, has been a terrible mother for a long time now. So, the problem hasn't been mangoes or fuel subsidy, but that your "mother" Nigeria has been a psychopathic, selfish arse of a bitch to her kids for a long time now. All of the complaints you have have existed even while the so-called fuel-subsidy program was running, and you only now seem to see it because the distraction that had been keeping you busy has been removed. 😐😐

2. No! "Children shall not live by mangoes alone". Even while the children had some mangoes, the poverty rate, homelessness problems, and debt also kept rising. Mangoes only served to distract the children from the many issues they were saddled with even at that time. So, suggesting that only bringing back mangoes will make the issues stop being issues is nonsensical. 😐😐

Oh wow! Never knew mangoes weren't the problem. Have a good day

9jatriot:
Good.... The opposition must have nothing to campaign with so that they can experience the confusion in policy like the one Atiku and his team are facing about the subsidy issu.

Tinubu will bombard them with projects so that they will choke. The same people who were opening threads to tell us roads are not enough to define good governance suddenly realized roads are important as soon as they finally found a bad road to reference.

Too little too late. We're tired of your fire brigade approach to solving problems. We want better thinkers who can ANTICIPATE and tackle issues BEFORE they arise. Nigeria deserves BETTER.

I know you will cry but I'm sorry the ship sailed a long time ago. Nigerians are just waiting to deliver the smack down on apc next year. Pele

This your idea bam well well. Supported!!

I was hoping to see pictures of the honey depot only to see picture of person wey dey pose

Kobojunkie:
She is not a bad mother if she sold all the mangoes and then instead used some of the profits from selling all of the mangoes to buy her children necessities such as clothing and many other foods other than mangoes day and night. That way, those of her kids who don't like mangoes or would rather have other things can also benefit some. 😐😐

2. Fuel subsidy should not be sold as the only way to derive direct benefits from those resources. 😐😐

So where are the other things our 'mother' Nigeria has bought for her 'children'?
No be for our eyes poverty dey triple?
No be for our eyes people dey sleep for road due to bad roads?
No be for our eyes debt dey quadruple?
Abeg tell me wetin we dey benefit from our oil money.
Is it not better for the children to eat the mango wey Dem see rather than wait for Mama wey go market go sell and chop all the money all alone?

creativejagaban:
It shows that even you need to go back to primary school to better understand how oil exploration and investment works.

Nigeria has already given out the license to explore the oil to international companies for some years (some spanning decades, so it predates Tinubu. So there is little Tinubu, Obi, Atiku or Sowore can do about this; all their grandstanding is lies only geared to get votes).

So the companies have the machinery and wherewithal to explore for and drill oil and sell it in the INTERNATIONAL market.

As part of agreements, they share part of the profit with us (So we are joint partners on mutual agreement). So technically, we do not own the oil for the duration of the contracts.

Before 2023, we had been using our share of the profit to subsidize petrol and even borrowing to do so often (because there are other public services - roads, schools, hospitals, salaries, etc. - competing for the same share of oil profits). That's why doctors, teachers, NLC used to go on strike in those days, since the bulk of our share of the oil profits had already been spent on subsidies, and we even borrowed to maintain the subsidy.

So now, armed with this understanding, re-explain your theory again.

Tinubu till 2031.

Oga, it's called a production sharing contact. We can well do as we please with our share.
The era of governors and politicians feeding fat on the people's Commonwealth is gone. That money must be funneled back to the people.

A system where the governors sit on the people's money and chop it as they like is over. The government claims it is no longer paying subsidy yet debts keeps ballooning and poverty keeps increasing. E don do, the money from oil should be for all Nigerian.

Eniitan19:
Dangote will just be laughing at your comment if he comes across it. Do you think it is only Crude Oil that determines the price of petroleum products?

It's a broad outline. The details can be worked out. In fact if you go into the nitty gritty, we may even get further discount if you factor all derivatives from crude oil including amonia for fertilizer, polystyrene etc etc. Oga, government dey chop us wetin no good o.

They claim that states monthly share of federal allocation has quadrupled. Abeg, make I ask you: Have the masses welfare also quadrupled? Even double we no see
Where are the monies? Na that money we must divert to subsidy that will benefit EVERYONE not only governors and politicians.

nairalanda1:
Government subsidsing the refineries is also not going to work for the simple reason that government cannot control production costs.

Once production costs rises, the N300 would not be able to cover everything it was meant to cover, so either the government stops paying it and allows dangote to set its prices, or the government borrows to pay the increased costs...worsening our debt

The major driver in increased costs is crude oil prices, as well as the costs of maintenance, upgrades (remeber that grades of fuel change from time to time, meaning refinery has to upgrade from time to time to meet standard), costs of expansion, and costs of salaries, pensions and even taxes to the same government.

The matter is made worse by the fact that Nigeria is not earning enough from crude to fund its budget adequately without borrowing, AND because of decades of borrowing due to chronically low oil prices the costs of servicing the debt are growing, which makes subsidy payments difficult.

(For example, Nigeria has a subsidy on electricity. And in the year ending April 2026, out of 1.1 TRILLION Naira subsidy owed, government was able to pay N75 billion naira. I guess they can afford to pay a much higher costing fuel subsidy...not).

Also, if oil prices fall, the monies available for paying for subsidy are going to fall, meaning government would have difficulty paying the N300 PER Liter (plus the value of the naira would fall, further raising subsidy costs)..which means again, more borrowing.

Goverment may also have to charge more tax, either way it goes.

See the problem. A refinery has to make a profit to run well, and government subsides don't let it run well.

Oga, the refinery is not losing ANYTHING.
I cannot help you reason if you cannot. The refinery will recover all its costs fully. That money wey una dey thief na him government go take subsidize the fuel for the masses.

nairalanda1:
Yep, come and invest in drilling for oil in NIgeria...as a local investor. The catch is that you will sell your crude at 50% of the price.

It's like me saying that all mango sellers in nigeria should sell the mangoes they sell in nigeria at half price to make life easy for the common man. Ya think they go do am?

Everyone does things for money and everyone wants to make a profit. You damage that, you go see palava.

Again, we tried it in the 1980's Crude at half price. It did not end well.

Okay, lemme explain it in a roundabout way since you just don't get the gist. The government will subsidize the refiners ( I have been using dangote since because he's by far the largest refiner) so the masses will get cheaper fuel. For instance, if refiners are selling for, say, #1000, the government may decide to pay #300 DIRECTLY to the refinery for every litre of fuel supplied to Nigerians. That way, the masses get to pay only #700.

This process is not prone to abuse since dangote now supplies directly to retailers. There are no importers or middlemen involved. The process is auditable and government only pays for petrol delivered directly to Nigerians at the pump.

callthefred:
Where will govt get the 500k bbls to give Dangote? We produce 1.6m bbls daily, govt is entitled to about 1m bbls and we've collect like advance money from like half so we have like 500k left. If that means, it means we won't have money to share again. The koko is govt must do more to bring competition to the industry that's the only organic solution that is sustainable.

The government has been doing a song and dance about production being up to 2m barrels what suddenly happened?

Anyway, whatever it is, our portion of the daily production can be used for this program.

nairalanda1:
The problem is you cannot sell crude at lower prices.

Drilling for oil is very expensive business.Add the fact that most of the machinery used is imported from abroad, which adds to the expense. Selling crude at cheaper prices would mean that the owners of the oil rigs would not make a profit to pay for their running costs and their worker costs as well as taxes. The result would be a decline in crude production.

Expecting the revenue from the 1.5 million bpd to pay for the expected loss is an exercise in futility. Right now, our budgets since 2016 have been funded more by borrowing than by oil. This year's budget is just 59% oil funded. Most of the rest is loans, and we have debt servicing. And it is all for 230 million people.

Also, if oil prices rise, the cost of paying for subsides rise. If oil prices fall, the amounts available for paying for subsides fall, and either way more borrowing is needed.

That's why your plan is problematic, and as I have said, it won't work. It may even drive away investment in the domestic crude sector, because no one is going to sell crude at half price, and having a government whose revenue is largely from borrowing assume the cost is a recipie for more borrowing

You do not have to agree with me, and you are free to abuse me and assume I support APC. I don't I support your right ,and their right to make a profit that is enough to cover your running costs, and pay for future expansion, which means more jobs and which guarantees more productivity and more revenue overall for our country.

Good morning.

It will not drive a single investor away. Remember, this subsidy will be applied to our own share of crude production contracts. The balance will still be exported at prevailing international prices. Secondly the refiners are not incuring any extra costs since they get the crude at a lesser price and hence distribute at lesser prices to reflect the discounted price they got from government. It is government revenue that will take the hit, but that is okay because the revenue is supposed to be for the people. Since the politicians are chopping the revenue alone as it is, it therefore makes sense for the people to benefit from the revenue by diverting it to subsidies q.e.d

I'd not have a problem if increased revenues were being used for the people, but they are not. So the sensible thing to do is to return the money to the people through subsidy. Na politicians go cry 😢😭

femi4:
You are not in charge. It is not in your control

MY SHARE is in MY CONTROL.

fmlala:
Nigeria economy and how things work in a situation like this is broader than this primary school analysis you are dishing out to the people.

They know you cannot take the rigor to distill their 'complex' analysis, that is why they keep confusing you with technical jargon. Ask them to explain it to you like they will to a 10-year-old and you'll realize they've been coning you all these while.

femi4:
When the Mango tree is too tall n you rely on the third party to help you pluck them, I am afraid, you dont have the final say on the basket of mangoes havested

Agreed. But I'll get them at far lower prices than someone who hasn't got a tree of mangoes.

Besides I have total control over my own share of the 'mangoes'. Why should I hoard our share of the 'mangoes' and ask my children to go and buy in the market like everybody else if they want mangoes?

nairalanda1:
I have,. let's start from it point by point, shall we




For your analogy to work, it would mean that
1. Either you were selling your mangoes to your family and household at 50% of the price or
2, Nigerian refineries like Dangote are using the 500000 bpd of crude for free.

This is where the flaw is in your analogy. You equate your household using mangoes for free, with dangote using crude oil at 50% of the cost price.


Also, it is impossible for crude to be sold at 50% of the cost price. That means that a loss would result which has to be paid for. It is like me telling you as government that you must sell your mangoes at half the cost price. Not only would you lose money, but when the cost of producing your mangoes goes up due to hard economy, rise in costs associated with farming mangoes, and expansion costs, and other business costs, it may be difficult for government to cover your losses via any subsidy payments.


It is the same thing with crude. Putting aside the fact that sales for 1.5 million bpd is gonna yield enough revenue for NIgeria..it won't , let's not lie....the fact is an increase in crude oil prices , is going to increase the amount of money that government would spend covering the losses resulting from selling crude at 50% of the price. A reduction in oil prices would reduce the amnount of money that government would spend covering the losses that result from selling crude at half the price. The result is government would borrow more, and debt would rise.

We did what you are suggesting in the 1980's and as someone who lived during that perioid, it created hardship for most nigerians, including high debt, food price increases and the need to accept SAP which made things tighter.


Oga, the problem here is that you cannot afford to sell crude at 50% of the price, just as you cannot afford to sell mangoes or any foodstuff at 50% of the price to make domestic consumption cheaper, not in a country like Nigeria where oil income is too low, income from other sources is also too low, meaning that borrowing is happening. And then there is the problem of corruption which this government is not solving at all atall. As a result, even without corruption, there just is not enough cash for any subsidy without massive borrowing.


Again, ya analogy is very very flawed.

Anybody telling you that this model is not possible is simply trying to deceive you so that they can continue sharing and chopping our money.

The only thing the common man benefits from Nigerian government is subsidy. A mother that harvests her mangoes and takes everything to the market without setting some aside for her children is a bad mother. As oil producers, we must derive direct benefits from our resources. Anything Short of this is corruption and grand deception.

Yikes! This thing is as simple as abc. If you don't set aside something for your family, won't you still spend money to buy it in the market at even higher cost? Countries that don't produce oil don't they buy petrol? How can someone producing oil be buying at similar prices as someone not producing?

I have already told you. We won't be dashing crude to dangote. We'll sell to him at lower prices and also buy refined products at LOWER PRICES. Understand?

Mccullum:
You're wrong by your explanation. It is illogical and a repeating of previous policies which will later suffer the same failure experiences in the past.

Centralize subsidy cannot work in Nigeria except decentralizing of it in areas like building of standard public schools, free health care for some sickness, well organized subsidy transportation on train, vehicles, etc. this can be executed by state government or assigned FG agencies.

Oga, the people want the subsidy to be on fuel. Return it there where it will make maximum impact on the masses. Simple. The deception cannot work again. We cannot continue to subsidize the politicians feeding fat on the people's resources.

tnerro1:
Good analysis, I have always said government is wrong to impose 100% subsidy on the masses.

The so called money they said they saved from the subsidy that was given to governors, are they not more corrupt now. And they are all in APC, so no agency can hold them accountable. The one that stole 90 billion from his state , is he not contesting for senate and the EFCC can’t touch him because he belongs to the ruling party. No APC governor will be held accountable for chopping the subsidy saving giving to them. If that 90 billion had been used to partial subsidized fuel for the people of that state, it will benefit thousands of families than only one man and his family chopping 90 billion.

I am voting for Atiku for this policy of subsiding production of fuel locally.

Thank you very much. Watch how politicians will be falling over themselves to contribute to tinubu's reelection with the same billions they have stolen.

Mynd44:
Sebi it is only politicians that use the roads or the students getting NELFUND are children of politicians.

You should return to primary 6

Which road? Where was your minister of works yesterday?

fmlala:
Nigeria economy is broader this primary si analysis you are dishing out to the people.

If you cannot explain it to a primary six pupil, then you're hiding something. Make us understand it.

Mynd44:
We have oil in the ground, we don't have the tech, machinery and investments to bring them out.

So Mobil, shell, Chevron comes to invest billions to drill for oil and then pay taxes and share the profits with us.

So the oil doesn't belong to the government, what belongs to the government is the shares NNPC have, taxes, royalties etc.

Good. Let's use that our share to ameliorate the suffering of our people. It's only politicians that are currently eating that 'our share' right now. This cannot continue.

nairalanda1:
The problem with your analogy is that Dangote selliing fuel at 50% of the current prices of petrol means he is going to lose money, and thus not be able to run his refinery properly

Read my commentary again. We will sell to dangote at 50% of international oil prices. He will in turn give us refined products at 50% of what we're currently buying. He loses NOTHING.

callthefred:
Where will govt get the 500k bbls to give Dangote? We produce 1.6m bbls daily, govt is entitled to about 1m bbls and we've collect like advance money from like half so we have like 500k left. If that means, it means we won't have money to share again. The koko is govt must do more to bring competition to the industry that's the only organic solution that is sustainable.

Those who collected loans with our oil should account for the loans. There must be consequences for actions. Something is wrong somewhere if we're collecting loans and we're not seeing results. Again, a country that produces crude cannot, and should not, buy petrol at similar prices as other nations who do not.

Let politicians who have mismanaged those loans go to jail otherwise this suffering would never end.

I fully support a return of fuel subsidy to Nigeria. Here is how I'll explain it to a primary six pupil. If you don't understand this, then our politicians will just keep sharing our wealth amongst themselves while we wallow in poverty.

Imagine that you had a big Mango tree in your compound and that tree produced much mangoes. You decide to pluck and sell the mangoes but you have kids and family members living with you, you'll definitely put some aside for your household consumption and then take the rest to the market for sale.

In the same way, Nigeria produces about 2m barrels per day of crude. Government should remove say 500,000 barrels for local refining and consumption and sell that to dangote at 50% while they export the remaining 1.5m barrels at international prices for foreign exchange.

Dangote then refines the 500,000 barrels set aside for local consumption and then sells/distributes it locally at 50% of the current prices of petrol and other products derived therefrom. Simple.

Anybody telling you that this model is not possible is simply trying to deceive you so that they can continue sharing and chopping our money.

The only thing the common man benefits from Nigerian government is subsidy. A mother that harvests her mangoes and takes everything to the market without setting some aside for her children is a bad mother. As oil producers, we must derive direct benefits from our resources. Anything Short of this is corruption and grand deception.

EgbeAbali:
Y'all saw a gym instructor and here y'all are busy saying shit....what if it's a chiropractor?y'all think everyone is as dirty minded as y'all are?.

Wetin e dey chiropractice?

werisetogether:
This has to be "content"

What exactly is he "listening" for in that pic?

Ukwu music