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Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 10:51am
Harvestock01:


How much fx do we spend importing refined petroleum products?

FG is supposed to be guarding that refinery like Aso Rock though. grin Because if anything bad happens to it, God forbid, it's going to be shattered hopes on a national scale.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 10:48am
essentialone:
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_uddixpYfTueDt2AFSs9DJA#/registration

Next time, I suggest adding the organization behind this (Meristem); it adds more credibility.

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 7:21pm On Mar 27
jideflash:
pls don't judge UCAP by the EPS alone.
Look at the Shareholders fund growth, thats the koko, if they added that into the profit alone (financial gains) , you go know say the company value is grossly underestimated. I expected a bonus offer, and since they didn't that's better for equity value. keeping my cutlass ready while i look for cash to load more. 18-20naira will be a sweet entry point now.



Yes, thankfully, they didn't share that too. It's very good for their Book value. Most financial services firms have that extraordinary growth in shareholders funds. We know where that's coming from. I would prefer to see a higher earnings retention percentage. But, to each mallam his kettle. High dividends payout works for them, at least, for now.

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 4:42pm On Mar 27
yMcy56:
UCAP is here!

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/40624_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2024.pdf

ACCESS
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/40621_ACCESS_HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2024.pdf

ACCESS Corporate Action
Final Dividend: N1.80k
Qualification Date: April 10, 2024
Payment Date: April 19, 2024
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/40622_ACCESS_HOLDINGS_PLC-CORPORATE_ACTION_ANNOUNCEMENT_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MARCH_2024.pdf

Thanks Madam Mercy for always updating us.

UCAP's PAT growth is below my expectation. It appears the subsidiaries returned a net loss. I hope there can be a turnaround in that. Its dividend growth is interesting(20%). Its dividend to earnings ratio is usually high. That makes it hard to grow its equity/reserves. For a company in the financial services sector that naturally has elevated risks, that's surprising.
*Regardless, UCAP's potentials cannot be underestimated.


Good one from Access bank. This seems to point to the big banks releasing very good results with good dividend payouts, relative to previous year (2022). It's also understandable that the dividend yields/payout ratios may not satisfy investors' expectations because they will likely be facing recapitalization soon. Speaking of recapitalization, the urgency around it is suspicious.

Let's hope the results trickling in can feed a bull, even if it's a small one.

3 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 7:55pm On Mar 26
yMcy56:


@Chillykelly8 I understand wetin I dey talk o, not expecting anyone to agree with me as per say I be amateur grin

See the scenario from debee and the response from Agba.......
My response to Agba was a view from another angle because I saw his response as one sided.

** Take note of "The total annual dividend from both portfolio as less than 4M" from Debee

If you say the 50M could become 30 in Equity, isn't there a possibility of it becoming 80 instead too??
* I wasn against diversification here, but saying if he's in profit due to picking those stocks cheaper, he could lock in his profit and move it to fix income asset.
** Truth is: Equity has higher chances of generating better returns than fixed assets**


@bolded, seems I misunderstood your post, then. Sorry about that

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 3:35pm On Mar 26
yMcy56:

Oga mi you know say na joke I dey with ur GTCO o. grin

I however think it depends on the cost price of the stocks in the portfolio..... Except he's insinuating that he bought @CPs
If for instance, he has Sugar @17, SALT @13, Conoil @18, MRS @12, SEPLAT @350, GTCO@17, ZEE @18 cost price, then we can't just conclude it could turn to loss easily like that..
I believed he must have weigh his options not to Rebalance the portfolio at loss sha.

The scenario you're painting is not ideal for that question, Madam. The prices he bought those stocks at isn't relevant to the future gain/loss potential. As at today, he has about 50m worth of value. Equities market should be appreciated for growing his funds. But he should put emotions aside and look at the potential benefits of continuing to hold the stocks at current prices vs the yield from fixed income.

In reality, it's not all black and white. I don't believe in leaving the market totally. If stocks are overvalued, I recommend you sell down and get assets with better potentials and vice versa. Of course, this is my perspective.

10 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 9:11pm On Mar 24
yMcy56:

There are rules and regulations that guides every aspect of the operations of the NGX......as contained in the 2015 Rule Book of the NGX.

However, there were amendments to some of the rules in January 2018.
So, when going thru the Rulebook, also bear in mind that some amendments were made to some sections of the book.

In the case of Insider restrictions, kindly note that it applies to all listed Companies on NGX and in their closed period notifications, they always reference Rule 17:15 or 17.18 as the case may be.
You may do well to check out Rule 17 of the Rulebook.

Just to add to what Madam Mercy has already highlighted, every listed company is supposed to declare such closed periods regardless of whether the result is good or bad. Because, someone privy to a bad result before its disclosed to the market can as well sell off.

So, bottomline is: closed periods, ordinarily, only mean results are about to be released, nothing to deduce from it.

4 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 3:54pm On Mar 21
Druss:


One only makes profit or loss when one sells.

Or when the company goes bust. Abi I should off the mic 🎤 ? lipsrsealed

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 3:42pm On Mar 21
megawealth01:
CBN Settles All FX Backlog As External Reserves Rise To $34.11 Billion

https://thenationonlineng.net/breaking-cbn-setles-all-fx-backlog-as-external-reserves-rise-to-34-11bn/


This is really good news. I hope it translates to improved confidence in the Nigerian market.

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 10:00pm On Mar 20
Streetinvestor2:
Dollar gang how market. Panic sell about to be triggered if you no believe go ask aboki for street. Dey no gree buy #1500 as of today ....wahala

If this turns out to be true (panic selling of forex), it should augur well for the market. But, it might also drive inflation higher.

Beyond that, the major question will be if the government has deciphered means to keep forex speculation in check. Else the cycle is bound to repeat.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 7:50pm On Mar 20
Streetinvestor2:
It is not extreme if truely you have been in this market for long.I have seen zenith touch #70 when dollars was less than #200 , Fbn #60 etc.Then I had only 20,000 of zenith. I kept regretting not selling and making my first I million in stock market..I bought 10,000 units of fbn during PO at #33.00 which is part of my holdings till date before averaging down

You shouldn't ignore the near general consensus that the high prices you're referencing were part of an unjustified bubble from an FA point of view.

The tendency for the market to repeat errors reduces overtime.

We should rather focus on why the current prices are justified. I can think of 3 or 4 justifiable drivers: lockstep improvements in FA, stocks were previously highly undervalued, excess cash in the system, substantial net-positive forex inflows into the economy. Please if there are more, Ogas, please help point out.

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 7:39pm On Mar 20
BabsO2:


My average for FBNH before I started selling small small was N5
Due to devaluation, the so called high prices of banks is not real. As the prices are better underpinned by book values and EPS unlike previous peaks. So there are probalilities for further upsides if impairment charges do not create much damage. Also if all these examinations do not turn up something bad. https://moneycentral.com.ng/exclusive/article/panic-in-banks-as-cbn-sends-special-examiners-over-n20trn-owner-related-loans/

Good one. I think revaluation should be based more on Forward EPS(earnings potentials) than book value. Like you pointed out, wildcards like impairments should be given serious consideration especially with the impact of high inflation and high exchange rates on businesses.

1 Like

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 7:24pm On Mar 20
Osamabinla:



I think there may be a rate hike albeit marginal. Just my opinion.

A rate hike for the ffg reasons:

1. Inflation figures released for Feb 2024 shows that inflation rate rose to 31.70%, up from 29.90% in January 2024, marking an increase of 1.80%. Also, month-on-month headline inflation rate in February 2024 reached 3.12%, an increase of 0.48% from January 2024’s rate of 2.64%. The inflation demon is still on its heightened mission.

2. The CBN Governor has made his stand known that achieving monetary and price stability is a major priority of his regime. Though, inflation figure is not the only yardstick used by the MPC committee to make MPR decision. There are several other factors.

3. Furthermore, while delivering his keynote address on Nov 24, 2023 at the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) 58th Annual
Bankers’ Dinner, the CBN Governor stated this - "the CBN is confident that with continued tightening measures for the next two quarters, we will be able to effectively manage inflation." In essence, we are yet to see the last of the rate hike if we are to go by this statement. These two quarters being referred to here are the 1st two quarters in 2024 (Jan to Jun, 2024).

4. Infact, when the last MPC meeting was conducted, Cardoso himself voted for the MPR rate to be hiked by 425-basis-points to 23 percent. However, the 12-member committee instead settled for a 400-basis-points hike to 22.75 percent. Cardoso’s rate target was the biggest after Aloysius Ordu, who voted for an increase of 450 basis points, confirming him as one of the most hawkish members of the MPC.

Source: https://businessday.ng/business-economy/article/for-cardoso-nigerias-jumbo-rate-hike-was-not-big-enough/

5. Furthermore, despite the outcry on rate hike, this is not the highest rate hike in the history of Nigeria. In 2001 when we experienced similar situation, the MPC committee did a 650 basis point hike, jacked up 1year TBills to around 22% from 15%, increased CRR drastically, etc. Same orthodox methods being used back then is being used now. Cardoso is of that era, time and age so he knows what he is doing. Its deliberate.

There are some other reasons that I can give that points to a further rate or why it should be increased but make I stop here.

6. On flipside, the worst case scenario is to keep the rate flat as Cardoso and Aloysius Ordu are not the only members of the MPC committee. Other majority members may vote flat. But lets wait and see as the next MPC meeting is now scheduled to hold on Monday and Tuesday next week (March 25 and 26, 2024).

These are just my hypothesis.







Thanks for this.

The CBN's aim seems to be to restore confidence in the Nigerian market. Whether they are able to do that, we wait and see. But in the meantime, we can read "determination". The effect is under probability. So, if FPIs and FDI investors are convinced, it will spell good for the market generally and NGX in particular. If not, we are left with local investors who are spending more (due to inflation) on basics and business (high interest rates) with the CBN also mopping up excess cash with an increased CRR. That's bad for the market. This is my simple view of things. Unless you are 100% certain that CBN's measures will work to attract foreign investors, you will all the more appreciate as many views as possible being aired here.

** @Osamabinla, the "you" doesn't refer to you personally but to all forum members generally.

1 Like 1 Share

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 7:09pm On Mar 20
thebargainhunte:
Never in the history of Nigeria has everything skyrocketed in price as we presently have. Everything is increasing in price, yet some people are complaining high price of stock market. Our market capitalisation is still below Egypt and South Africa market capitalisation. Una tink sey 1 trillion market capitalisation na child's play.

Please can we allow divergent opinions on this platform? Even if you're 100% certain the uptrend will continue (of which no one can perfectly predict market direction), listening to divergent arguments and counter-arguments only strengthen your position making you a better decision maker.

Fundamental Analysis has become so shallow here and I am wondering. TA and FA are important but FA is more important for long term investors and value investors. They are needed in both bull and bear markets. Don't let your desire to have your short term calls right make you degrade the value of FA from diverse perspectives.

6 Likes 1 Share

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 7:26pm On Mar 17
Agbalowomeri:


Laughing keh
With my garri ijebu here
Mercy no allow me see garri buy again
We left indomie for them, they still came after our garri

And I was thinking you were the one hoarding the garri. cheesy

2 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 3:24am On Mar 17
kolaish:
How is it unrealized? Some of the banks have already included it in their EPS. That is what probably makes UBA to have EPS of about N12.93 in Q3. I stand to be corrected on this assertion though.

On the face value, UBA's Q3 2023 'Net trading and foreign exchange income' of N450b is more than its PAT of N449b. Don't expect too much for YE 2023, especially with the CBN reiterating that dividends can't be paid from forex revaluation gains.

Oga Agba may still have the last laugh.

3 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 1:16pm On Mar 16
As at H1 2023, UBA's African operations had contributed close to 50% of the group's earnings. The Naira has depreciated further since then, implying the percentage contribution from its African operations should have improved.

UBA, Ecobank(other factors to be considered), Access(riskier expansion drive should be factored in), GTBank, Zenith, etc, who had a substantial percentage of their operations outside Nigeria before 29th May, 2023 should be given a closer look, in terms of the improved topline and bottomline these operations will translate to, as Group results are reported in naira. And this has nothing to do with forex revaluation gains/losses which are one-off.

Caveat: The converse will be the case should Naira strengthen, as expected.

1 Like 1 Share

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 5:17pm On Mar 15
Willie2015:


D rate is a plus for the banks..
Q1 2024 should look nice..
My portfolio is leaning towards Banks...

The rates increase is the upside, the CRR increase is the downside.

**Above are for the banks. But, I believe both are good for stabilizing the economy and even putting it on better footing.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 3:10pm On Mar 15
Streetinvestor2:
Gtbank will touch #60 and zenith #50 after another round of revaluation by first quarter of 2024 results.
The only problem is cbn restrictions on what the banks can do with the gains.Going forward they will be allowed to use them when naira appreciate and long time stability is achieved in forex
And some of this gains are nolonger paper gain as banks whr force to sell off a ratio of thr forex holdings

The CBN is in order not to allow banks use forex revaluation gains to pay dividends or for opex. It should be in a reserve account. This is because the exchange rate is not fixed and when naira stengthens, such reserves will come in handy to avoid rocking the boat. It's still part of equity and can be used to make money but shouldn't be seen as profits attributable to stakeholders.

9 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 8:26pm On Mar 14
Adinije:



For people that are always advocating, "Convert your naira to dollar and invest in US stock", This will shock you. I was playing around my trove app and decided you use the small $$ I have there to buy random stock. I just checked the app this evening only to discover that my portfolio is down by 100% $0 left. E shock me.

Naira might be shit but this kind of thing can't happen in NGX. Even dead stocks on NGX won't drop to #0


Probably you traded with a leveraged account. It can happen on NSE too. I think some stockbrokers offer margin loans. However, they may not liquidate your position without first giving you the opportunity to refinance when your position goes red.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 3:24pm On Mar 13
chillykelly86:
I decided to write this epistle this morning:

I started investing in stocks while in university, around the time of the banking sector consolidation (2004-06). There was a very helpful forum then, stockmarketnigeria.com (SMN for short) and I used to frequent it. Due to the lessons and regular updates from that forum, my major stockbroking manager then actually confessed that my account had better returns than his. That's not the crux of this post. I was only trying to point out that his perception of me as a better portfolio manager didn't have much to do with my expertise as it had to do with my association with the distinguished members of that forum.

There was one occasion I asked for clarification on an issue from one of the Ogas in the forum and his response was a surprising rebuff. I didn't remember offending anyone at all on that forum and not this Oga in particular. However, following conversations shed light on his disposition: apparently someone or some persons who followed his opinion to trade and lost came back at him. So he probably decided to refrain from airing his views or even offering any tips since no one was paying him in the first place. I think that or similar occurrences are what led to the common disclaimers that follow expository posts here. That Oga's contributions were valuable to the forum as well as those of other Ogas. If any of them chose to recoil into their shell, it may not be obvious immediately but on the long run, you would have poorer arguments and a generally narrower perspective. And who loses more? The Oga or the newbies?

I told this story to buttress my assertion and, if we read and interpret well, the assertion of many of our Ogas in this forum, that the broader the perspectives, the better for all of us.

The growing norm, here, of calling out people who are proved by the market to have been on the wrong side of arguments after every bull or bear run is, to say the least, shortsighted, ill-informed and dangerous for this forum. In fact, like in my case then, its the newbies that will still suffer it because the older folks generally know how to synthesize market-relevant information from posts and marry with the information they already have to arrive at their positions. While nobody can claim to predict market direction correctly 100% of the time, the more relevant information you factor into your decisions, the better your chances of being right. (Just to add too: the longer your timeframe, the more likely you are to make correct decisions too: this is why its agreed that long term investments are generally less risky than short-term investments).

So, we must resist the urge to criticize and talk down anyone either because their opinion does not allign with ours or we think they are not in touch with reality, especially if its with the benefit of hindsight. The ideal thing to do is to put in your submission(s) and point out why you think their submission is irrelevant or not too relevant. In the end, we are all here to learn from one another and the larger the pool of knowledge, the better for us all.

God bless you all

I thought to refresh our memories. I also use this medium to appeal to all our Ogas who may have refrained from making inputs about stocks to please reconsider, for the sake of the innocent ones. Your inputs are invaluable.

9 Likes

Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 12:16pm On Mar 13
yMcy56:

The report was for Q2, I even thought it's for Q4....
Merger discussion was mentioned there (With Providus Bank as we've learnt), no update yet on this.


Can providus bank afford to take in 400b plus in negative retained earnings and the impact it will have on their equity? There are few banks that can afford that. Except that value of -N400b+ negative retained earnings in the article is erroneous. Me, I no dey look that kind stock.

3 Likes

Phone/Internet Market / Re: Tips To Identify Genuine SME DATA RESELLERS On Nairaland by chillykelly86(m): 9:59am On Mar 08
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Technology Market / Re: Web Trends Hub - [MTN 1GB = #340] We Sell Phones, Accessories, IT Products, etc by chillykelly86(m): 9:57am On Mar 08
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Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 1:42pm On Mar 07
Please who has the NAFEX exchange rate on 31st December 2023?

If you know how I can get such historical data, I'll be grateful if you share it.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 10:21pm On Mar 04
I picked an info that their tower contract is priced in dollars as a reference and that's responsible for part of the profit erosion. Unfortunately, I can't pinpoint the source and veracity of that information now. Does anyone have reliable info on this? Because if that's true, then that part of it is not one-off and will even grow.

Though I expect a turnaround as I expect the Telcos will meet with NCC and raise tarrifs to pass the costs down to the end-users eventually.


ositadima1:



* MTN's exposure: MTN has foreign currency-denominated liabilities (e.g., dollar-denominated debt) and local assets and liabilities (e.g., masts, office equipment, and naira-denominated debts).

* Impact on financials: With the naira's devaluation, the value of MTN's naira assets and liabilities remained the same, while its foreign currency liabilities increased when converted to naira. This difference resulted in a reported foreign exchange loss.

Also, MTN's operational performance was very good, but the currency fluctuation adversely impacted their financial statements.
Investment / Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by chillykelly86(m): 4:12pm On Mar 04
That EPS value can't be with the current 7.5 billion units listed and the results provided. The likely explanation would be that the shares outstanding was much less than 7.5b but to create liquidity with listing in view, they did a bonus issue.

Bottomline is: recalculate your EPS with the current shares outstanding as you would be making a mistake to think that the Transpower listed today has an EPS of #218.

KarlTom:
I understand some might want to give up on getting TRANSPOWER @ below 500.
Let me fuel your determination:

GEREGU SP on 04.03.2024. 1000
TRANSPOWER SP on 04.03.2024. 264

GEREGU. 435MW installed capacity. 270MW generated capacity.
TRANSPOWER. 1000MW installed capacity. 500MW generated capacity. ( TRANSAFAM POWER not included)

In 2022, TRANSPOWER had a EPS of NGN218 (yes that is correct).

What you make of this info is up to you... grin

4 Likes

Technology Market / Re: Web Trends Hub - [MTN 1GB = #340] We Sell Phones, Accessories, IT Products, etc by chillykelly86(m): 6:53pm On Nov 21, 2023
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