Happy New Year everyone. May 2020 be blessed for you and I, in Jesus' Name.

A quick question, house: Access & GTBank, which is faster with United Securities' E-dividend processing?

I would prefer GTBank, but I don't know if Access bank's association with United Securities will bring any benefits to the table ...

Please, if you have processed United Securities' E-dividend with any of them, kindly let me know how long it took to be credited with outstanding dividends.

Thanks in advance

fxuser:


FUGAZ (example)
A 200-ema Check (40week –ema)

200 -ema is a long term moving average and a strong indicator of trend . Above is bullish , below is bearish , very slow as its represents the average of the last 200 days closing prices (for nse the 50 is a solid indicator , due to low volume nature etc). Price have been below for months.

Banks Above 200-ema proper
- UBA (golden cross)
- Access (golden cross tey tey)
- FBN (golden cross loading)

Just Under testing the 200-ema (but above the 50-ema)
- Zenith (needs to close abv 19, but abv 50-ema)
- GTB (needs to close above N30)

Trend Analysis
- All bullish with further upside to come , sit tight font get shaken out by daily NOISE
- When price is above long term MA’s , poor entries are forgiven , just stay put esp long term holders
- Pull backs above long term EMA are entry opportunities
(like dis week, if ur selling now , u will likely buy higher , snr ogas will explain better in normal language lol)


RISK MGT / STOP
- A close below the 50-ema is a big warning (take all profits, no story) , a break below 200-ema is get out for long term holders

A blessed month ahead

Thanks Boss. Please which site do you use for technical analysis of the NSE?

Heishere:


Here you go. Line 3 - 6 is in billions

FY 18 CCNN OBU Enlarged OBU
Energy Coal & LPFO Gas Gas, Coal & LPFO
shares 13,143,502 40,000 33,864,354
Revenue 31,721,962 87,290,610. 119,012,572
EBIT. 7,874,575 35,149,843 43,024,418
PAT 5,731,320 58,585,867 64,317,187
COGS per ton (N) (23,592) (19,727) (20,757)
Gross margin 45% 54% 51%
EPS (N) 0.44 1,465 1.90
ROE. 2% 68% 15%
Debt to Capital 0.16% 4% 0.93%
BVPS (N) 25.37 2,150.37 12.39
P/B (x) 0.65 0.01 1.32
P/E (x) 37.61 0.01 8.63

Thanks a lot. This is very helpful.

Safe journey to those on the bus.

Heishere:


The table comparing the two financials could not be pasted here.

Anyway I'm in already at N15. If I die I die

*Modified

Heishere:
For those looking for analysis of CCNN and Obi merger, you can peruse below:

We recently received the scheme of merger document showing details of the proposed merger between CCNN and sister company, OBU Cement (“OBU”), as announced in late October. The merger entails absorption of all CCNN’s assets, liabilities and undertakings by OBU Cement and consequently a delisting of CCNN’s shares from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) on January 8th, 2020 and listing of the enlarged entity on same day. Upon conclusion of the merger, existing OBU and CCNN shareholders will hold 61.2% and 38.8% of the enlarged OBU which will have total of 33.8 billion shares. For context, pre-merger, OBU held 40 million units of shares (100% held by BUA Group) which is being reconstructed in a 1-for-518 exchange ratio and increased to 20.7 billion units, while CCNN’s 13.1 billion shares, was included in the enlarged entity on a 1-for-1 exchange ratio.

Going by the valuation provided in the scheme document (See here: CCNN_Obu Scheme Document), the additional shares to be created by OBU to integrate all shareholders of CCNN, is valued at N460,022,533,810. This translates to a per share valuation of N35, which is at a premium to CCNN’s current 9M 19 BVPS of N25.6 and market price of N16.4. The merger consideration is at a 74% premium to our FVE of N20.14 for CCNN. At the end of the merger the equity value of the enlarged entity will settle at N1.2 trillion.

Unlike the previous merger of CCNN and Kalambaina, we see some value accretion for existing CCNN shareholders from the merger. Combining the published FY 18 numbers of both CCNN and OBU (which is yet to reflect the additional 3 MT launched in November 2018) and also adjusting for the increase in the enlarged entity shares to 33.9 billion, we note that the combined entity’s earnings per share and ROE would have settled at N1.90 and 15% respectively (excluding the impact of prior years’ cumulative tax benefit of OBU in 2018, EPS and ROE would have been N0.80 and 6.5% respectively), compared to reported N0.44 and 2% respectively by CCNN. However, the higher EPS and ROE are still below the respective level reported by CCNN as a standalone business in 2017 of N2.57 and 22%.

Table 1: Key Financials Pre and Post-merger

Upon conclusion of the merger, total production capacity of the enlarged entity will increase to 8MT, comprising CCNN’s 2MT plant in Sokoto and OBU’s 6MT in Okpella, both of which include new 1.5 MT and 3MT which came on bard late 2018, respectively. Based on CCNN’s price per ton, we estimate that both entities produced 2.8MT in 2018 which translates to a utilization rate of 80% – CCNN on an adjusted basis: 59% and OBU: 68% on 3MT. Interestingly, reflecting the improved energy source at CCNN (now largely coal) starting Q2 2018 and a largely gas powered plant in OBU, by our estimate, the enlarged entity’s gross margin of 51% inches closer to DANGCEM’s leading margin of 57.5% and above Lafarge Africa’s of 31% (Ex-South Africa).

Without a look into the financials and books of OBU, this is a dangerous venture. Forget all these premium this, premium that.
At least, we can see from the little information here that CCNN seems to be more profitable than OBU. There are better bargains to choose from. I don't like any semblance of a poisoned chalice.

Limited Time Offer!

MTN 10GB for #3,300 only!

Offer valid while stocks last. Chat me up for yours.

https://webtrendshub.com/sme-share-data-plans/

MTN 1gb still sells for #500

(Please rebroadcast) ��

Limited Time Offer!

MTN 10GB for #3,300 only!

Offer valid while stocks last. Chat me up for yours.

https://webtrendshub.com/sme-share-data-plans/
MTN 1gb still sells for #500

(Please rebroadcast) ��

chillykelly86:
MTN 2gb = #995

https://webtrendshub.com/sme-share-data-plans/

Uchetoba:

I am not intrested in how good they do later. Mine is to accumulate CCNN @ 17.10 or thereabout now and selling @ 35.11 on 8th January when Obu is listed..

Are you sure you will find a buyer at that price? If you have done your due diligence and you're satisfied with your findings, go ahead.

onegentleguy:


...and if u understood the part in bold, u would know that buying into the stock @ any price above 30k would be tantamount to paying a premium(overpaying) for LASACO INSURANCE.

Simple math;
N1.20/4 = 30k (potential N1.20 price projection over a 1 for 4 share reconstruction)

The interpretation of this is that unless there is more to what the company(management) has put out in public, the current mkt price of 27k only presents a 3k(approx 11%) upside potential in view of the reconstruction and recapitalization plans by the firm !!

Always best to look before u leap.
cc: Mcy56 and others.

Regards.

Yes Sir, I understand that.

However, I also intend keeping an eye on the company for their return on investment (EPS, DPS, etc) before the capital raising exercise.
That seed na im go help me keep tabs on it and not lose sight of it. A time may come when I may need to start a plantation there, who knows?

Mcy56:
Lasaco Assurance has been consistent with dividend payment for the past few years now.
A stock selling for 25k as at now paid 5k to shareholders for YE 2018.
Plan for Private Placement to 'strategic/selected investors' at 1.20k per share is ongoing.
Watching this one. Time will tell.

Caveat: Not monkey hunting, just trying to get more details about it.

I have had to take a look at this company based on your hints (thanks). Though I have sowed some seed here, everyone should note that there is a one-for-four share reconstruction brewing here on existing shares, as well as a diluting 9.25b share issue at #1.20k per share:

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2019/10/14/lasaco-assurance-secures-shareholders-approval-to-raise-n11bn/

Your PERSONAL due diligence and subsequent decision is advised.

PETERiCHY:


All I'm saying is that OANDO worst DAYS are OVER they've done aggressive RESTRUCTURING & DOWNSIZING which means things can ONLY get BETTER.
Buying @ sub N4 is a VINTAGE POSITION ..QED.

OK. I hope I can find time to look closely at Oando to see what has changed, if any. I classified it as a no-no a long time ago.

PETERiCHY:


It's such ANALYSIS that leads to PARALYSIS which made alot of folks miss on DIAMONDBK & DANGOTE FLOUR windfall.

"BECAREFUL NOT TO BE TOO CAREFUL"

HISTORY is about to repeat itself.

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

With due respect, Sir, if you're comparing Oando with "Diamond & Dangflour", then you're accepting the company is troubled and needs rescue. And unless you're privileged to have preknowledge of such rescue plans, any position in Oando is speculative.

You cannot, on one hand, use companies that were obvious going concerns before a "saviour" showed up to justify a buy recommendation on Oando and on another hand, argue that all is well with the same Oando. Its like speaking from both sides of the mouth.

DeRuggedProf:


If you spot my Barber among them, tell me let me know what to do. I cant shout.....

pluto09:



And if CBN liquidates unity tomorrow those who are buying now will be blaming SEC, NSE and every other person except themselves

It appears the CBN has lost appetite to intervene sef. That's may be why they are making regulations more stringent. This Unity own go don tire them; over #200b on the surface. We never consider the quality of the remaining assets oo.

On a serious note, nobody on this forum should be playing in Unity stock with any money they can not afford to lose without batting an eyelid; its just too dangerous.

Valueinvestor:

OK noted,i just guess, all i do is check, a few indices on the quarterly report,however i find it hard to take my eyes off,a troubled stock showing some improvements.Getting the stock at the right price,will surely pay off.i narrowly missed it at 0.54 (limit order) some weeks back.

My Oga, I think you should seriously consider the fact and size of negative equity resulting in a negative net assets. That's a very dangerous one that may take several decades to correct, except they get fresh capital to inject or get another bank to acquire them(I doubt any bank will be interested by the way).

meshpips:


Show me just one person on this thread that gave the buy call on ACCESS before I did.

My trade recommendation on that stock was given openly on this thread and suffered almost zero draw down.

If you can't give more precise entries that my VAP model, then you stand in no place to try to correct my model.

You should in actual fact respect the fact that the model is better than yours then seek how you can learn it before attempting to correct anything about it.

As it stands right now sir, you do not know a single thing about what I do so quit trying to correct what you do not know.

Oga, your time for GTB to hit #19.xx has elapsed. Any new date?

In your own words, “you do not know a single thing much about what we do (on NSE)” so either humble yourself and learn or quit trying to conjure up a nonexistent universal formula/model.

meshpips:


Oh! Yes I am sir. The role allows me to impart people with proper knowledge about the financial markets.

Nothing gives me more satisfaction than seeing people hitherto clueless about the market become enlightened.

I am doing my bit as regards changing the narrative of Technical Analysis in the Nigerian financial market space.

All these people using methods that have been too long due for a change would soon be kicked outta the industry by these young ones I'm gonna be raising. If you aren't ready to improve upon the old knowledge base that you have, watch your back 'cos the new kids on the block are gonna unseat you.

Enjoy your day sir.

Please may we know the stockbroking firm?

Toluway:
Please sirs, is there any prospect for Cornerstone Insurance to move forward? I tried in vain to sell it in the past!

Cornerstone price has been on the rise on recent. You should be able to sell now. If you are heavy in it, you may need to watch the bids carefully so that you can offload in bits without halting the bullish run on the stock.

OBAGADAFFI:

Wealth.ng( Sankore Securities Limited) is a Stockbroker like investnow.ng(UCAP) .

Nigerian entrepreneurs need to learn that one of the best ways to grow a startup is by hyping the association with an established business, if any.

Nothing wrong with including something like "investnow.ng, from the stables of UCAP".

dejoesky:


Does it last.. �

How long it lasts depends on your usage. But you get your full data which you can always crosscheck with your phone's data usage setting.

Please can we be more sensitive to the female folk in our midst? I don't think the silence about it means consent.

Mcy56:

which favour oga migiet? We that have entered since nko, you want make we still dey wait for Agba ni?

Be careful; you inviting the mace. Just call him Oga Mendes oo

nna777:


Thanks. But the 0.75 is it inclusive of both broker commission and sec fees or just broker commission alone?

Also is it both for buy/sell (I mean 0.75)?

0.75 Lead capital is broker's fees only on both buy and sell orders placed on LeadTrader. If you send in a manual mandate, say by e-mail, I think they still charge 1.35

locodemy:


Oh I see.Let prices come down a bit to trigger volume.some stocks prices are not right now and that's why volume is not seen.

I need to learn something on this price and volume.

It works both ways Sir.

Buyers of volume want the prices down so they can buy volumes, while sellers of volumes are not satisfied with the current bids and want the prices up so that they can supply volumes.
At any point in time, the market price is a fair price(give and take) for the stock...

RHO65:
Please has any one notice of incomplete dividend payment in UBA 2019

Mine was complete. Are you sure you don't have some shares that are not captured in your e-dividend mandate?

MTN 2gb = #995

https://webtrendshub.com/sme-share-data-plans/

NSEMPA index indicates the bulls are back...

How many posts/pages already today?

ukay2:
A beg who has seen UBA interim dividend alert. .....? Or No be today?

You also planned to reinvest yours too?
I never see alert too

Final boarding call ...

onegentleguy:


Bro, u have probably taken too much 33.
...Pls just wait when it clears from ur eyes, u do the calculation again.
There's no way OS will be near the figure u've put out now.

onegentleguy:


How?

The proposed right issue will effect an increase from the current 10B to 18B units of OS(an 8B units addition)
Which implies 16B units of 50k each.[16x0.5= 8]

According to the notice;

“That the authorized share capital of the company be and is hereby increased from N10 billion to N18 billion by the creation of 16 billion ordinary shares of N0.50 Kobo each, ranking pari passu in all respects with the existing ordinary shares of the company, and that the capital clause of the Memorandum and Articles of Association of the company, be altered accordingly."

Pls kindly point me to the contradiction.

Have u taken an overdose of 33? ...today is Thursday, not Friday oo.

OGG, from the text you quoted, Agba's numbers are correct. If they got approval to increase the authorized share capital to #18b, it technically means they can issue up to 36b units of shares at a nominal value of 50k.
So, if they increased authorized share capital from 10b to 18b, they simply created room to be able to issue an additional 16b units.

Abeg, help us factor the new numbers into your calculations make we know whether na forward we dey go abi na dismiss.

Edit: https://nairametrics.com/2019/09/12/aiico-insurance-to-increase-share-capital-by-80/

Excerpts from the link: In a statement that outlines the EGM’s agenda, the company made known that “the share capital will be raised by the creation of 16 billion ordinary shares of 50 kobo each, ranking pari passu in all respects with the existing ordinary shares of the Company, and the capital clause of the Memorandum and Articles of Association of the Company, will be altered accordingly.”

Mpeace:
Where everybody go this morning.

Don't be caught sleeping on judgment day?

They are assimilating the GTBank alert which came in this morning.