Its clear that among the tier 1 banks, FBN(and by extension FBNH) is the least efficient. From the scrutiny on this thread recently, I have derived the relationship between that and the current management. The only time I attended their AGM, I observed a one-man-centric atmosphere that lends credence to all that.

However, I also like to look at the potentials of companies. We see the potentials in FBNH from their top lines. No doubt, FBNH bottom line is being negatively impacted by NPL issues. I believe the inherent potential in FBNH is the reason the market prices it at a PE that is at a premium to UBA/ACCESS.

Can we try to derive the actual material potential in FBNH, maybe using their efficiency ratios(ROAA, ROAE) before their NPL crisis?

On Access, its important to note that there are yet more benefits/synergies to be unlocked from this merger. I suggest we scrutinize the stock further to stay steps ahead of the market.

If we wait till results surface, we will be acting like every other person. But if we dig deeper and are still not certain the direction we should go, then we can wait for results for more clarity.

meshpips:



One of the "great" technical analysts here trying to make light of my analysis.

Time ALWAYS would tell the whole story.

Oga, we all know why UACN is flying. Tell us, did you know about their plans and factor that into your analysis?

PS: its very possible you don't even understand why its on full bid.

onegentleguy:
With the just released H1 2019 result from ACCESS BANK(which majorly inculcated the risk-adjusted impact of asset deterioration from the merger with diamond), it will be BEST to seriously consider having ACCESS in ones investment portfolio now.(if u are yet to do that)

At 1st glance, the H1 financial print shows an all-touching boost accross all revenue and earnings line with a pointer to margins growing at a faster rate than EM at the back of an improving AsQ and AsY.

One thing that impresses me, is the current ACCRUALS RATIO(an analytical tool that aims to gauge the persistence and sustainability of a coys earnings setting aside the risk of a possible manipulation). ...which is especially useful for companies that have just expanded, following from an organic/inorganic growth or have merged/acquired an asset with a perceived low quality.
With ACCESS, current accruals ratio(both from a cashflow and balance sheet perspective) is HEALTHY.

Other KEY financial indicators also paints of a grossly underpriced asset.
Raking off all feasible risk and assuming zero growth to YE, I have a FVE of N15.7 for ACCESS. ...and quite frankly, that would be me been extremely cautious with valuation.

The same can also be said of fellow 1st tier peers, UBA and ZENITH. ...and tier 2 fellows FCMB and FIDELITY.

CAVEAT: This is no license to any sought of recommendation. ...due diligence should still remain ur 1st priority.
My advise: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

Thank you, God, for picking my call.
Thanks OGG

arduino:

Yes, I have.

I'll advice you wait for some days, maybe till Wednesday and if it has not still reflected, follow up with the registrar.

bigjay01:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/27498_ACCESS_BANK_PLC._CORPORATE_ACTIONS_SEPTEMBER_2019.pdf
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/27500_ACCESS_BANK_PLC._FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_SEPTEMBER_2019.pdf
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/27501_ACCESS_BANK_PLC._FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_SEPTEMBER_2019.pdf

Ope oo!

arduino:


Abeg, them never reach GTBank turn. I get plans for that money oh.

I also use GTB and mine came in at about 10:23am this morning. Have you received Zenith dividend in that account before now?

Chibuking81:

Dangote sugar is heading to #6 junction soon. In this September most good and bad stocks will drop downward from their current price, final year result and dividend news expectation is still far.
Half year news and it interim dividend news has come and gone, and set a ground for investors onwards picking decision.

The stock market moves in circles if there are ideals. Your forecasts for September are taking into accounts the result-reporting cycles of companies but ignoring many other things. In NSE, currently, such factors as these have their roles to play in determining market-direction:

1. depressed prices resulting in enticing valuations,
2. Struggling economy coupled with unpalatable oil prices,
3. Global economic uncertainties due to erratic trade wars with unpredictable direction,
Etc.

There are many things that affect the market on a large-scale or small scale. So, every analyst tries to factor in as many as possible in other to make their decisions.

FO gearing for full bid while FBNH is accelerating downwards...

Could it be that CBN did not allow Access to declare Interim dividend? Just thinking; the result is supposed to be out. They were one of the first to have board meeting to approve their results.

If my theory is correct, could that be why MSCI is offloading? Still thinking oo; drop that stone

dipoolowoo:
Stanbic IBTC to Pay Highest Interim Dividend in Banking Sector
https://businesspost.ng/2019/08/29/stanbic-ibtc-to-pay-highest-interim-dividend-in-banking-sector/

This kind of news sha, ignoring the huge drop in profits.

meshpips:


When a kid born in 1986 gets behind the keyboard, him must exhibit his childish nature by typing rubbish.

If you know how many years I take senior you ehn!

It is better for you to just keep mute when elderly people are talking.

Sincerely, I didn't mean any insult Sir. I am sorry it came across as such

meshpips:


When a kid born in 1986 gets behind the keyboard, him must exhibit his childish nature by typing rubbish.

If you know how many years I take senior you ehn!

It is better for you to just keep mute when elderly people are talking.

By your standards, Mark Zuckerberg should not sit where you're sitting Sir.

Don't be offended oo

meshpips:


Do you know exactly what I do? If you see a simple 2 - way logic gate decision making as a thing of probability, how then can you boast that you know what I do? Just by the way sir, I developed this stuff from the scratch so bear this in mind next time when you openly make such bogus claim.

Thank you.

My dear, humble up. deleted text Every sphere of life is larger than you can exhaustively learn in a lifetime. You're so new into stocks and despite accumulating a disproportionately larger volume of failed/failing predictions made with uncouth confidence, you seem not to see that this field is different from where you're coming from.

Like you seem to know of spiritual principles, one of them is "God humbles the proud". Either you humble yourself or He will do it for you eventually.

Northeastern:


The guy does not have any model, him just dey blab. A model that would recommend a buy on Access at 5.80 (12% discount) and a buy for GT at 19.42 (34% discount), what sort of model is that?

Someone that doesn't own a stock is the most busiest on this thread. He has gone to form a kangaroo group where he is the only member.

Me I don't have a model oo. But it was Access bank(post-merger) specifically that brought me into the market this time. Should I go back into hibernation?

swilo:




I am beginning to see similarities between Access and Transcorp.

Abeg, what are the similarities you're seeing?

meshpips:


I checked your profile. You are selective with your posts. I think I like that.

I can count the chickens before they hatch because my analysis covers the whole of year 2019.

Numbers never lie.

Volume is same as QUANTITY or NUMBER OF UNITS transacted.

The same NUMBERS are accessible to everyone globally as there is a centralized exchange.

I simply check the difference between the NUMBER of buyers and the NUMBER of sellers.

This Net NUMBER is what I use as the input parameter for every other process I perform.

I have been at this for about 3 years and have not come out in the open since that time because it was still in R & D stage.

The PRODUCT is now ready.

The "stress test" for this product was done using the currency market as its environment (this is the most "unwise" place to try to use volume computations). The product performed excellently well with surgical precision in that environment.

My logic is this, IF the product can be so accurate in the currency trading space THEN it will undoubtedly do same (or even better) in the equities trading space.

The market is welcome to try to fault my logic.

In my usual method of driving points home sir. Take this case in point:

You found yourself in the White House with President Trump.

You left Nigeria many years ago and have not been home eversince.

One of your relative sent you GARRI (in your own eyes, it looks like some yellowish - granular stuff which he told you is obtained from cassava).

Your relative said IF you heat water to boiling point and you pour this yellowish - granular particles into it, THEN you will have EBA.

Now, you are about doing this "experiment" in the presence of President Trump.

Shebi the GARRI is supposed to respect itself and not disgrace you by turning to hamburger because President Trump is there?

What gives you that quiet confidence that IF the water heats until it boils THEN you pour in the GARRI , you will have eba?

I await your answer sir.

Thank you.

Please when did you make the 4-6 weeks prediction for GTB hitting #19-#20 again? So that we can prove your prowess once and for all

RabbiDoracle:


I have asked those questions. But what confuses me is the inflation to use knowing that these monies are not going to be used in Nigeria.

So the real yield should be = Yields(returns) from stock - inflation in their own country - % of currency depreciation .

You can't use Nigerian inflation because the monies they bring are not spent in Nigeria but abroad. This is what I think.

If a Nigerian invests his naira, you should consider inflation when calculating real yield because after everything you get, you still spend it here at home where a high inflation takes the gains away from you.

I'm summary, where is there zero exchange rate and their home country has negative to below 2% inflation, the yield will be around 12%

That's actually very true; I never thought of that.

RabbiDoracle:


You made mistake.

There are more negative bond yields in mature markets(developed economies) than others in the same mature market.

All Emerging markets have highly positive yields compared to the mature markets.

There is currently $15trn of negative yielding debts.

To get a clearer picture, if you buy 10 year bonds in some European states, you will get the same amount(or most times lower) of money you invested after 10 years. As in X amount of money invested for 10 years produces X or lower amount of X money.

Austria, like 1 month ago, sold 100 years bond at 1.5%. Read what I wrote well o: One hundred years and not ten years o!

Then imagine the kind rush they will give stocks with yields of 15% after Withholding tax.! They will buy it till the dividend yield reaches 3% sef.

They also need to discount for inflation rate/currency valuation risks. Though after discounting these, yields in Nigeria(special case), are still better. Whatever made them stay away for so long has to be from within.

Agbalowomeri:


Remember it pushed ASI by nearly 3k

How is the ASI calculated Sir?

So, with all the greens everywhere, MTN did not allow the ASI to close positive? Its all good. We don discount am finish

Eku MKT oo

Truly a demo is quite different from a real account. There are many risks I take on demo that I can not try in my real account. I have experienced that practically.

meshpips:


Regardless of it being a demo account and one in which the trader might need to increase his risk so as to outperform others, you should look very carefully at the parameters in summary :
Profit factor
Absolute draw down
Recovery factor
Win rate etc

Also kindly note the huge advantage of the leveraged nature of the currency market once the trader has precision.

The past winner of the stock trial did about 104% profit.

I have so far done over 1300% profit and the one month duration is not over yet.

I hope you now understand my sore distaste for an unleveraged asset class?

You guys should please stop pretending to be blind and say the truth unabashedly.

You will not tell us when you do over 1300% loss. That's the issue: selective disclosure. So, let everyone do what pleases them with the resources at THEIR disposal. That your sore distaste is pure honey to some other people; one man's food is another man's poison.

DOLLARTEX:
OK,I am aluta defending champion!we are going to displace badmus at that no1 spot!

It seems he is in a cash position all through. Because his portfolio has not moved in a long while.

currentprice:
EKUUU mkt o

ekuu zenith result this week o

Ati Access oo.

DOLLARTEX:
are you the same chillykelly at easykobo stock trial?

Yes Sir

@RabbiDOracle, thanks for your efforts. Its sacrificial of you to have gone to those lengths. I was getting concerned that some persons were beginning to take a price call of a marketing strategy seriously because of a general bearish trend.

maishai:
https://www.nairaland.com/5349552/dangote-refinery-suffers-supply-hiccups.................


Nigerias solution to subsidy ayment and CBNs solution to Naira stability would now be completed in 2020 to kickstart full operations in 2021............... Anyway peetroleum marketers are still on point this year and 2020

Putting it this way actually puts things in perspective; which way Naija?

OBAGADAFFI:


what is happening on Aug 22?

The day after swearing in of Ministers, I guess

meshpips:

Ehen, because you have given me an opportunity to post let me update the house on the progress thus far on my currency trading account today.

No matter what, its not helping your cause that you continue posting forex stuff here. Please stop it. If you will stick to the topic in question, you're welcome.

lancee:



Sis Mercyllicious eku ise oo

That reminds me, what of Hispy?