₦airaland Forum

Was he under the spell of his associates when he said that "everything is fair in politics"? He also accused his associates of desperation, but he has shown more desperation than anyone else. At least we heard him charging his associates to "grab power and run with it" please he should go and sit down.

Ofunaofu:
https://www.thisdaylive.com/2026/10/12/inec-your-desperation-affecting-my-administrations-image-tinubu-warns-close-associates/

The 2027 presidential election is increasingly shaping up as a three-way contest between Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar. But the more I examine the emerging political structure, the more I believe that one of the most important features of the election may be this:

Atiku Abubakar remaining in the race could substantially improve Peter Obi's chances of defeating Bola Tinubu.

This may sound counterintuitive. After all, Atiku remains one of Nigeria's most experienced politicians and has a strong following, particularly in the North. But elections are ultimately about the distribution of votes, not simply the popularity of individual candidates.

Atiku's northern strength may work against Tinubu

The APC currently has a formidable political structure across the North. It controls many state governments and has an extensive political network at federal, state and local levels.

If Atiku were not contesting, a significant proportion of his northern supporters would likely have to choose between Tinubu and Obi/Kwankwaso.

Given the APC's organisational strength in the North, it is reasonable to assume that a substantial portion of those votes could move towards Tinubu.

Atiku's presence therefore creates a third pole.

Instead of having a straightforward Tinubu-versus-Obi contest in which the APC could consolidate much of the northern vote, Atiku can retain a significant portion of the traditional northern opposition vote.

That could prevent Tinubu from converting APC's enormous northern political structure into an overwhelming presidential advantage.

In other words, Atiku does not necessarily have to win the election to influence who wins it.

But Atiku's 2023 southern advantage is no longer guaranteed

This is where the 2027 election could be very different from 2023.

Atiku's strong performance in states such as Akwa Ibom, Osun, Bayelsa and others in 2023 cannot simply be transferred to 2027.

He was running under the PDP, which had substantial political structures in those states. The political landscape has since changed considerably, with prominent PDP figures and structures moving elsewhere.

Atiku is now running under the ADC.

Meanwhile, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso are contesting as a single ticket.

That matters enormously.

In 2023, Obi and Kwankwaso competed separately. In 2027, their political strengths are being combined.

The implication is that Obi can potentially retain his strong southern base while gaining a significant northern constituency through Kwankwaso.

The Obi-Kwankwaso combination changes the equation

This may be the single biggest difference between 2023 and 2027.

Peter Obi's major weakness in 2023 was not a lack of enthusiasm or support. It was the absence of a sufficiently strong political structure outside his strongest regions.

He also had no major northern political figure on his ticket.

That has changed.

Kwankwaso brings an established northern political network and demonstrated electoral strength, particularly in Kano. In 2023, he won almost one million votes in Kano alone.

Those votes are no longer competing with Obi.

They are potentially part of the same presidential ticket.

The combination therefore gives Obi something he did not have in 2023: a credible national coalition with significant strength in both the South and parts of the North.

The South-South could become a major problem for Atiku

I would also revise the assumption that Atiku will automatically retain much of the South-South because he won several states there in 2023.

Consider Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Osun

Atiku won the three states in 2023, but the political circumstances are now different.

Atiku will not be running under the PDP, rather, under a weak structured and relatively unknown ADC.

At the same time, Obi remains highly competitive across the South-South.

My current assessment therefore gives Obi/Kwankwaso the advantage in Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta and Edo, with Rivers remaining a major battleground.

If that happens, Atiku's southern vote could decline significantly from 2023.

And that creates a serious problem for his presidential ambitions.

The three candidates now have very different electoral coalitions

Bola Tinubu

Tinubu has the strongest existing political machinery.

His advantages include incumbency, APC's national structure, strong Southwest support and substantial northern organisation.

His biggest vulnerability is that he is the incumbent at a time when economic hardship and insecurity are major concerns for voters.

Atiku Abubakar

Atiku has enormous political experience and a strong northern network.

But his biggest challenge may be that he has lost much of the institutional advantage he enjoyed as the PDP presidential candidate in 2023. And also, zoning arrangement does not favor him at the moment.

He now has to build a national coalition under ADC while competing directly with Obi-Kwankwaso for voters opposed to the APC.

Peter Obi

Obi appears to have the strongest growth trajectory.

He has retained the enthusiasm and loyalty of his core supporters while expanding his political network.

More importantly, he now has Kwankwaso on his ticket, giving him access to a significant northern political constituency that was outside his coalition in 2023.

His major remaining challenge is converting political enthusiasm into a sufficiently strong polling-unit and grassroots organisation across the country.

My current state-by-state assessment

My latest central scenario has Obi/Kwankwaso winning approximately 19 states plus the FCT, Tinubu about 12 states, and Atiku about 6 states.

The states where I currently see Obi/Kwankwaso strongest include:

Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Benue, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Nasarawa, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba, plus the FCT.

Tinubu remains strongest in much of the Southwest and parts of the North, including Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Borno, Jigawa, Katsina and Zamfara.

Atiku's strongest remaining territory is concentrated largely in the North, particularly Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kebbi, Sokoto and Yobe.

These are projections, not polling results, and several of these states remain highly competitive.

The most important point

Nigeria's presidential election is not won simply by having the largest support in one region.

A candidate must obtain the highest number of votes nationally while also satisfying the constitutional requirement of at least 25 percent of the votes in at least two-thirds of the states and the FCT.

That makes Obi's growing geographical spread extremely important.

If Obi/Kwankwaso can maintain their overwhelming advantage in the Southeast, dominate much of the South-South, win significant parts of the North-Central and Northwest, and cross the 25-percent threshold in enough additional states, they can defeat Tinubu without winning the majority of states.

My current prediction

After considering the changing party structures, the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket, Atiku's movement from PDP to ADC, the APC's northern strength and the changing political landscape in the South, my current assessment is:

Peter Obi/Kwankwaso — 50% chance of winning

Bola Tinubu/Shettima — 36%

Atiku/Amaechi — 14%

These are analytical probabilities, not opinion polls.

My central vote scenario is approximately:

Obi/Kwankwaso: 8.9 million

Tinubu: 8.2 million

Atiku: 6.3 million

The projected margin is therefore relatively narrow.

But the deeper conclusion is more important than the numbers:

Atiku may currently be the candidate least likely to win the presidency, while simultaneously being one of the most important factors determining who does win.

His presence could prevent Tinubu from consolidating the northern vote, while his loss of southern political machinery could prevent him from converting that northern strength into a national victory.

That leaves Peter Obi with a potentially powerful combination:

a loyal southern base + Kwankwaso's northern strength + an expanding national political structure + an anti-incumbency environment.

The big question between now and 2027 is therefore no longer simply whether Peter Obi can repeat his 2023 performance.

It is whether Obi-Kwankwaso can turn the coalition they have assembled into a genuine nationwide electoral machine.

If they can, the 2027 presidential election could be the first Nigerian presidential election in which Peter Obi enters as a genuine national favourite rather than simply a strong third-force candidate.

Chijioke Nwankwo, PhD.
Writing from Enugu.

I guess you meant to say not to be rigged out.

God don too suffer in the hands of criminals.

Questionnairae:
https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/02a4-2063e22b19d9-14f7369cb6fd-1000--champions-league-semi-final-ties-and-dates-confirmed/

Sorry Arsenal! 😞

fergie001:
Bola Ahmed Tinubu
President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria

Tinubu de craze.

The All Progressives Congress, APC, is set to "sacrifice" the Speaker of the Rivers State House of Assembly, Hon. Martin Amaewhule, a source close to the insider deals has told The Neighbourhood Newspaper. Though still an unfolding development, however, the source, often precise and constant in his disclosures, said that it is all part of high-class political re-arrangements to secure Rivers State as the party would leave nothing to chance against 2027.

In the unfolding high-wire deals crafted in the highest political hatchery, the current Speaker, considered a protege of Nigeria's Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Mr. Nyesom Wike, is said to have lost his position as a result of the dwindling fortunes of the Minister. The source revealed that the Minister, once considered indispensable in the Administration of President Bola Tinubu, had, in recent times, suffered serial political mishaps, perpetuated by his personal actions. The source, who revealed that Wike's favour quotient before the President had suffered sharp decline, added that the Minister's push to have the National Democratic Party, NDP, a de-listed political party in Nigeria, to be re-registered by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, triggered more suspicion within the Presidency and among those who have the President's ears. "Maybe, Mr. Wike thought he could walk around it in absolute secrecy, he did not realise that every bit of his movements were monitored. Or, maybe he assumed that he was invisible that his actions were also invisible."

Part of this bargain, this source volunteered, includes sourcing for a replacement for Amaewhule. "The Presidency prefers to work with Governor Sim Fubara, whose second tenure the party, at the national level, has secured. Except the Rivers State Governor declines the first right of refusal, his ticket to seek re-election is already in his pockets. We cannot risk President Tinubu's re-election in 2027, and allowing the current Speaker will jeopardise the party's plans for Rivers. Much as we cannot trust Wike, APC cannot trust the Speaker. When once we are done recruiting his replacement, we shall make the move. Our goal will be to secure Rivers State for President Tinubu, and of course Governor Fubara shall be a primary beneficiary in this."

Source: The Neighbourhood Newspaper

They are gradually edging Wike out.

The National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, has praised Rivers State Governor, Siminalayi Fubara, for his responsible leadership, describing Rivers as one of the most peaceful states in the country.

He also noted that President Bola Tinubu is happy with Fubara’s leadership style.

Ribadu stated this when he led a presidential delegation comprising the Ministers of Works, David Umahi, and Environment, Balarabe Lawal, and top officials of NNPCL on a courtesy visit to the Rivers State Government House in Port Harcourt on Monday.

Ribadu said the federal government delegation was in the state to consolidate ongoing peace efforts in Ogoni land.

He noted that a new chapter was unfolding in Ogoni, stressing that Nigeria “will no longer be what it used to be,” with the transformation beginning in the area.

According to him, President Bola Tinubu specifically directed him to thank Fubara, expressing happiness with his leadership style and coordination of the discussion on resumption of oil exploration in Ogoni.

Ribadu also conveyed the President’s appreciation to the people of Ogoni for their support, patience, and understanding.

The NSA further commended the Rivers state government for providing a campus for the University of Environment as well as accommodating the South-South Zonal Office of the Office of the National Security Adviser.

On his part, the Minister of Works, Senator Dave Umahi, described the Ogoni peace initiative as strategic to the renewed unity of Nigeria, noting that the President takes a personal interest in the well-being of the Niger Delta people.

Umahi assured that all sections of the East–West Road affecting the Niger Delta would be completed to standard.

He disclosed that on Ogoniland, the 15-kilometre Eleme axis of the East–West Road includes five flyovers, one of which is being constructed by the Rivers State Government to support the effort of the President.

He said the over ₦200 billion project is scheduled for completion in April next year.

The minister also revealed that, with presidential approval, designs are ongoing to dualise the Bonny–Bodo Road from its starting point to the East–West Road, including the construction of two flyovers.

Umahi added that the President has ordered a redesign of the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway to pass through Ogoniland.

Also speaking, the Minister of Environment said the Ogoni clean-up project remains a priority for the ministry.

He explained that projects recommended by the United Nations Environment Programme are progressing well, including mangrove restoration, healthcare delivery, human capital development, and women empowerment initiatives.

NNPCL’s Bayo Ojulare said the national oil company is fully committed to the Ogoni dialogue process.

Ojulare stressed that going forward, the focus would be on the people rather than oil.

He disclosed that the employment of 30 Ogoni indigenes by NNPCL has reached the final stage, with appointment letters already issued and resumption scheduled for January 2026.

He described the developments in Ogoni as a model for a new Nigeria.

In his response, Fubara thanked Tinubu for his intervention, saying it reflects the actions of a leader who genuinely loves Rivers state.

The governor noted that resolving a crisis that lingered for over three decades in Ogoniland was not an easy task.

He said with the President’s intervention, residents can now drive with ease along both ends of the East–West Road, connecting Bonny and Bayelsa.

Fubara emphasised that beyond physical infrastructure, the President’s administration is rebuilding confidence in the region.

He reaffirmed his commitment to supporting the peace process and managing emerging conflicts, noting that development cannot thrive in an atmosphere of crisis.

He added that adjustments and compromises are necessary for sustainable development to take place.

The governor also appealed to Ogoni leaders to engage the youths to allow oil facility operators access to repair faulty equipment, in order to prevent fresh oil spills while environmental restoration is ongoing.

ebukal67x:
Make I no talk wetin dey my mind about this judge.

Talk am.

Jonathan, though performed woefully while in the office, but he will easily win Tinubu or anybody APC presents in 2027.

Honestly speaking, coaches who coach Real Madrid, Man city, Bayern and few others are not supposed to be counted as best coaches. If you want us to know your capability, come and coach Wolves and the likes. Use such teams and win leagues then we will sit down and talk.

immortalcrown:
An idiotic statement.

How much Dollar have those women spent on organ enlargement?

How much Dollar does each politician carry in one briefcase?

It's not only organ enlargement, if you know the amount of dollar Nigerian women spent daily buying artificial hairs and other beauty products, it's quite high.

On this Jagaban issue, every 4 years people come on social media to yell and castigate the man over his political decisions. There are over 18m people in Lagos, over 1000 Politicians yet they cannot unseat him. Is this his fault? Are you expecting him to raise his legs and say "Hi guys come and Screw me over"?

He left the AD, formed the AC then ACN, Afenifere, Obasanjo could not unseat him. He lost two Deputy Governors, Kofo Bucknor, and Femi Pedro to the opposition party, Lost Obanikoro, a man he single- handedly made a Senator to PDP, he lost Jimi Agbaje, a close ally also to the PDP. They tried to unseat him, they failed. Obasanjo and GEJ tried, they didn't succeed. Lagos State had the Minister for Works, Ogunlewe, PDP BOT Chairman - Bode George, Minister for Defence - Obanikoro, Olusegun Aganga - Trade and Investment, but while these notable men go to bed at night, Jagaban stays awake scheming and planning his next move at Bourdillon, rallying the grassroots and then he comes with either the stick or the Carrot. Obanikoro his sworn enemy is back, Pedro is back, Salvador former PDP Chairman is back to his Camp.

He did not put a gun to anybody's head to wine and dine with him. Why can't they form an alliance to finish him off? We have a Choice not to associate with him, don't we?

He has successfully built a battalion of loyalists from 1999 till date. From Fashola to the Councilor in the smallest Ward in Lagos. Fashola, Osinbajo, Fowler, Lai Mohammed, Ben Akabueze, Ojudu, Ade Ipaye, Rauf Aregbesola, Hamzat, GOS, Gbajabiamila, Faleke, Yayi, Ashafa, Opeifa, Tunji Bello, Leke Pitan, Jide Idris, Dele Alake, Mamora and a whole lot of other young brilliant minds. For every one person he empowered, he got thousands more in return. He identifies the best and uses them to his advantage.

Can Bode George or Ogunlewe roll out a list comparable to Tinubu's list? Why haven't they been able to create a formidable opposition to kick him out? They had the federal might for 16 years to their advantage.

To be honest, is he at fault? What do we expect him to do? Crawl under his Duvet at Bourdillon or watch African Magic? Why can't other Politicians form a Consensus?

He is the Lion of Bourdillon and when he roars, his Lionesses and Cubs will respond. Unless a stronger pride emerges, he will continue to rule this jungle. It is the law of nature, sentiments don't matter. He is already Scheming for 2023, 4 years ahead of these Docile Politicians.

Meanwhile, there is still room to challenge him, please go ahead and vote against his Aspiration if you feel aggrieved.

Except from: BabaBabajide Kolade-otitoju.

Useless antichrist. I have always known that you guys representing; America, Israel, France and UK are the worst human beings the earth has ever inhabited. That's why I keep saying that if you remove, America, Israel, France and UK, sanity and morality will return to the world.

It's obvious this mad man created Twitter to create crisis. Otherwise I don't know why he won't focus in sensitizing users to ensure that whatever they twit must be verifiable and correct information.

People should be made to take responsibility for whatever they post, and not to encourage them to just twit and get back up and protection from litigations, not minding if they constitute nuisance, libel, slander and defamation. Look at the case of Dr Tunji as a case study.

1/15. Though I took a break from social media for I am convinced it has outlived it's usefulness. But the break has to be called off solely to convey my gratitude to @MBuhari as he concludes his 2nd term in office, since I don't have another platform to do so.

2/15. and so, mr president @MBuhari I sincerely extend my gratitude to you, for your sincere leadership which has seen Nigeria make giant strides in many fronts. No doubt, many who supported you pre 2015 withdrew their support along the line for various reasons.

3/15. There were those who expected quick fixes, so were others who didn't understand the magnitude of the mess we were in before you took over, and lastly, there were those who lacked the wisdom to understand that it takes longer time to rebuild than to destroy.

4/15. Some of us stood firm, not because we were 30k/month crew, as alleged nor were we benefitting larger share of your good policies than other Nigerians, it was because we saw in you, true sincerity and commitment to reposition the country, despite the quantum challenges.

5/15. I must also commend those fellow Igbos who gave their support from the inception of your office and perpetuated the support till this moment, not because of any personal gain, but out of conviction on your sincerity to reposition the country.

6/15. We're the outstanding heroes of all your supporters, given that we came from a zone where, at the time, it was seen as a taboo and sacrilege to support you. But my gratitude is that, you made us proud after all. We could hold our shoulders high and point at your numerous achievements, which is in sharp contrast to what we had in the unfortunate 16years that predates your tenure.

7/15. Ironically, those who squandered the 16 years tried to cajole us to believe they were better. When they saw their message was not yielding fruit, they unleashed; IPOB, yoruba nation, Endsars, fake news, religious and ethnic opposition, all to make your government appear worse than their pitiful regime.

8/15. Thankfully, as they were dancing naked shamelessly with those things, you were responding with; completion of 2nd Niger bridge, Lagos Ibadan express way, Lagos Ibadan rail line, retrieving Ajaokuta steel industry from the Russians, mambila power plant, national school feeding program, federal airports, bailing out 27 states that went as low as not being able to pay salaries under their watch, 16 constitutional amendments, cleaning Ogoni oil spill, rebuilding our foreign reserves, improving agriculture such that majority of Nigerians no longer remember foreign rice, improving ease of doing business which helped to berth Dangote refinery and other private investments, petroleum industry act, equipping all shades of our security architecture which has made it possible that you will be handing over a better secured Nigeria than the one you took over in 2015. Space will not allow to mention all.

9/15. Mr President, posterity will be very kind to you. No doubt, children born in 1999 who are already 24 years today, will not understand what we as a nation went through in the hands of those who are presently saying they are the ones that can fix the country, and that they want to take back the country.

10/15. That's why, when they split into; G5, obidients, red cap chiefs( Kwankwasiya) and the later day saints( Atikulooters), we saw it as a divine providence to save Nigeria from them, hence, it was obvious that God needed us to consolidate on the gains of your administration.

11/15. Mr president, posterity will be very kind to you, I want to advise, if tomorrow is the judgment day and the lord ask you why he should grant you eternal life; show him Nigeria where boko haram seized some local govts and instituted their own govt, show him how they were bombing churches and mosques, in Abuja and different states, such that before one enter public places, he or she must queue for a search, show him how the Niger Delta avengers took control of the mainstay of our economy immediately you came in, how him that you took control of a country when 27 out of 36 states could not pay salaries, yet, you quenched all these problems and made these commendable achievements.

12/15. And above all, tell him that you never discussed bribe with anyone throughout your tenure.

13/15 Mr president, the last one which borders on corruption is the major issue that endeared me so much to you. Even your worse enemy will never accuse or prove that you ever discussed bribe with anyone, despite all the power you wielded which put the entire country's resources at your disposal. posterity will judge you kindly.

14/15I am happy I existed in your time. Judging how accumulation of wealth has made even the most expected holy ones to derail, and how you dammed the consequences and remain contentment in what fate gave you.

15/15. I have instructed my children that if they ever say my story, while I am still alive, or after I have joined my ancestors, they must say I lived in your time.

Thank you @MBuhari

Yahoo things.

Divoc19:
I pity whoever has a case with Nigerian dignitaries because, the chances of being framed/having no fair judgement is 99.9%

Shut up, you supporter of evil. What do you know about the case that you are already taking sides? Whoever commits crime should face the music regardless of who he committed the crime against.

You Will hardly see results from southeast as early as other regions, their focus is always what's happening in Lagos and other places.

ThiefnubuBandit:
I believe they are still 50 times better than Nigerians in terms of living standard.

She goat. Go there na.

Xscape1993:
Another waste of time and resources. The evil party should not be allowed close to power anymore.

You are a fool. So you think that the inability of any leader to perform is a factor of the party he belongs to? Tell me the name of your governor, his party, the states the party is ruling, and what the party is doing uniquely in their respective states that stands them out.

I doubt if you are still a virgin. Most of you girls will always make the mistake. You visit a man or even a fellow woman, after romancing, you still consider yourself a virgin simply because you didn't have penetration. No, virginity is a thing of virtue and chastity, your hymen is just a mere flesh and not what defines virginity.

Tinubu is already the next president.

All these just to kill human beings?

gaby:
The grief and gnashing of teeth by citizens from every corner of the country shall be yours and your entire lineage's.

May you all get deleted from the face of the earth, you bastard.

Get back on my mentions you slowpoke.

Aschlock

I wish you same my dear.

PrinceOfLagos:
I keep telling people that the reason why you still see some few Northerners around Tinubu is because of the money he throw at them. once he stop giving them money, they will dump his ass .

Tinubu is a very bad market that nobody wants to buy. he's corrupt, old and misfit.

I hate to admit this, Kano state is in firm control of Dr Rabiu kwakwanso who happens to be a true friend of Mr Peter Obi as seen in the picture below

Tinubu is just wasting his money in paying people to mobilise crowd for him in Kano

You have been seeing reasons why Tinubu will not even come second in the primary election. He won, you are still postulating why and how the North will dump him in the main election. He will still win come February, and you will have another reason why this or why that. Don't you people ever know shame?

gaby:
When is he going to speak on the genocide currently going on in Southern Kaduna?

Oh, na this one wey everybody dey talk about now dey reign so let's jump on the wagon.

Where is Adeshina?

Garbage Lawal don give him opinion carry lie put for Bubu head.

Ewu. To you now, you have made useful contribution.

auntysimbiat:
Nice one,
There is always need to have scapegoat to curb indiscipline

Go and change that your profile pic. Your sagged boobs is not supposed to be your selling point.

Promicah:
The value is not measured by how they are being squeezed.

Even if it's valued one naira to one billion dollars, animals like you will still treat it the same way.