₦airaland Forum

By Dipo Olowookere

Former Premier League winner, Claudio Ranieri, has been relieved of his managerial job at London-based football outfit, Fulham.

Ranieri, who won the league with Leicester City in 2016, was shown the way out after just 16 games in charge of Fulham, which was among the three clubs promoted to the senior division this season.

On Wednesday night, the Italian led the club to a 2-0 defeat by Southampton, which left the Cottagers 19th in the Premier League, 10 points from safety with 10 games left.

“Claudio walked into a difficult situation, inheriting a side that gained only one point in its prior eight matches, and he provided an immediate boost by leading our club to nine points in his first eight matches as manager.

“Though we were unable to maintain that pace thereafter, I am grateful for his effort. Claudio leaves Fulham as our friend and he will undoubtedly experience success again soon,” a statement from the club today and signed by its Chairman, Mr Shahid Khan, said.

In the meantime, first-team coach, Scott Parker, has been asked to take charge of the team until the end of the season.

Mr Khan explained in the statement that, “Scott’s immediate assignment is merely to help us stabilise, grow and rediscover ourselves as a football club.

“If Scott can answer that challenge, and our players respond to the opportunity, perhaps victories will follow in the months ahead.”

Ranieri, 67, was appointed manager of the club in November after the sacking of Slavisa Jokanovic.

Reacting to his exit from the club, the former Chelsea manager said, “I am obviously disappointed with the recent results and that we could not build on the good start we made following my appointment.

“Finally, I would like to thank the club, the players and the fans for the support they have given me during my time at the club.”

https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/28/fulham-sack-claudio-ranieri-as-manager-after-16-games/

By Dipo Olowookere

The All Progressives Congress (APC) has been urged to allot the senate president slot to the south eastern part of Nigeria.

This passionate request was made by a group from the geo-political region of the country known as South East Youths and Elders Forum.

The group, which congratulated President Muhammadu Buhari on his victory at the polls last weekend, said south east deserves the position because the President and his vice come from the north and south west regions of Nigeria.

In a statement signed by its Director of Media and Publicity, Mazi Edwin Ikechukwu, the group said Mr Buhari deserved the victory, considering the massive infrastructural developments witnessed by the zone in the past three and half years of his presidency.

The group, which also congratulated the ruling APC for maintaining a clear lead among senators who will make up the 9th National Assembly, noted that since the party maintained its early zoning arrangements, which zoned the presidency to the north, the vice presidency to the south west and senate presidency to the Southeast before the party could not produce any senator from the region in 2015 Presidential and National Assembly elections, should therefore make a categorical statement reaffirming its commitment to the zoning of the senate presidency to the Southeast region since the party now has two APC Senators from the zone.

The statement further condemned the harassment of Igbos living in Lagos State, saying political leaders from the state should come out openly to condemn the undemocratic acts of domestic terrorism against the Igbos.

https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/28/apc-should-zone-senate-president-slot-to-south-east-group/

By Dipo Olowookere

Hours after the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced President Muhammadu Buhari as winner of last weekend’s presidential election, traders at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) embarked on panic selling.

This, according to analysts at Business Post, was further fuelled by the rejection of the poll results by the main opposition in the contest, Mr Atiku Abubakar, of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Mr Abubakar claimed the exercise was marred by irregularities, promising to challenge the results at the court.

Moments after the former Vice President of Nigeria released his statement today, investors begin to dump their stocks to take their cash out of the market, fearing any possible post-election crisis.

By the time the market wrapped up for the day by 2:30pm today, the stock market was down by 0.71 percent after further losing N86 billion.

The market capitalisation, which closed at N12.110 trillion on Tuesday, depreciated by N86 billion to finish at N12.024 trillion.

Also, the All-Share Index (ASI), which closed at 32,473.82 points yesterday, reduced today by 229.58 points to settle at 32,244.24 points.

Nestle Nigeria, which led the losers’ log yesterday, also topped the chart today, with its share value closing N10 lower to finish at N1500 per unit.

Unilever Nigeria depreciated by N2 to finish at N41 per unit, while Zenith Bank fell by 90 kobo to close at N24.90k per share.

Oando dropped 70 kobo to settle at N6.55k per unit, while Dangote Sugar declined by 40 kobo to finish at N15 per share.

Conversely, PZ Cussons was the day’s best performer with N1.15k added to its share price to close at N13.45k per share.

Following were Julius Berger, which appreciated by N1 to end at N27.50k per share, and Union Bank, which increased by 30 kobo to finish at N6.95k per share.

NASCON jumped by 30 kobo to settle at N19.20k per share, while NPF Microfinance Bank appreciated by 13 kobo to close at N1.62k per share.

Despite the selling pressure, the volume and value of shares traded by investors increased by 41.55 percent and 10.07 percent respectively.

A total of 456.1 million shares worth N2.7 billion were traded in 5,416 deals today compared with 322.2 million equities worth N2.4 billion transacted yesterday in 4,069 deals.

The most active stock at the market on Wednesday was Diamond Bank, which sold 17.4 million units for N466.7 million.

Fidelity Bank followed with 45.1 million units sold for N108.2 million and Access Bank, which traded 33.1 million equities for N204.7 million.

Transcorp exchanged 23.5 million units worth N32.1 million, while UBA transacted 20.9 million shares worth N166.4 million.

https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/27/investors-panic-on-re-election-of-buhari-as-stocks-further-shed-0-71/

By Dipo Olowookere

Africa’s richest man, Mr Aliko Dangote, has explained one of the main reasons he cannot risk taking a shot at politics.

Mr Dangote, who is very influential in Africa, Nigeria in particular, has over the years stayed away from politics.

Instead, he has remained focused on growing his business, romancing successive governments in power to ensure their policies don’t affect his investments in the country.

By doing this, the 61-year old has been able to get good deals from Nigerian governments, including a recent tax rebate after agreeing to rehabilitate one of the roads leading to his company in Apapa, Lagos.

Speaking with Bloomberg recently, Mr Dangote said it was difficult for him to leave his business aside for politics.

According to him, “If I exit from business and go into politics, nobody can actually sit in Dangote Group and take the kind of risk that I can, because I’m the owner.”

He said further in the interview that, “My real job is to see how do I transform Nigeria and Africa and to take this kind of risk.”

Four of the companies under Dangote Group are listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), contributing a huge size to the market capitalisation of the local bourse.

These firms are Dangote Cement, Dangote Sugar, Dangote Flour and NASCON Allied Industries Plc.

The cement arm of Mr Dangote’s business is one of his main sources of revenue and controls a market share of over 65 percent in Nigeria.

The businessman is presently building a vast oil refinery project in Lagos. This project is reported to be gulping $12 billion.

The oil refinery, which is also said to be Africa’s largest, should finally start to dispatch oil from next year.

https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/27/why-i-cant-risk-joining-politics-dangote/

By Dipo Olowookere

The board of Dangote Cement, one of the companies owned by Mr Aliko Dangote, has announced the audited financial statements of the firm for the year ended December 31, 2018.

The results, released today, showed an improvement from what was recorded in the 2017 financial year.

For example, the revenue generated by the company improved by 11.9 percent to N901.2 billion from N805.6 billion achieved in the 2017 financial year.

Also, the profit before tax improved to N300.8 billion from N289.6 billion, with the company getting a tax credit of N89.5 billion during the fiscal year to shoot its profit after tax to N390.2 billion in the period under review.

Dangote Cement said in the 2018 FY, its production cost of sales increased to N383.3 billion from N351.3 billion, while the administrative expenses gulped N52.5 billion in the year against N45.3 billion a year earlier.

Furthermore, the sum of N136.9 billion was spent on selling and distribution expenses in 2018 fiscal year versus N109.9 billion expended in the 2017 FY.

In the brief analysis of the financial statements by Business Post, Dangote Cement recorded N10.2 billion for other income in contrast to N5.2 billion posted in 2017 FY, with N517.9 billion declared as gross profit in the period under consideration compared with N454.3 billion 12 months earlier.

The board said profit from operating activities was N338.7 billion in 2018 versus N304.2 billion in 2017. In addition, the finance costs declared by the firm was N49.8 billion against N52.7 billion a year earlier.

An analysis of the balance sheet showed that while the total assets stood at N1.694 trillion against N1.666 trillion, the total liabilities reduced to N707.9 billion from N781.4 billion.

The earnings per share (EPS) of Dangote Cement stood at N22.83k in 2018 FY against N11.65k in FY 2017.

https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/27/dangote-cement-generates-n901b-posts-n390b-profit-in-2018/

Dangote Cement Generates N901b, Posts N390b Profit in 2018
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/27/dangote-cement-generates-n901b-posts-n390b-profit-in-2018/

Why I Can't Risk Joining Politics—Dangote
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/27/why-i-cant-risk-joining-politics-dangote/

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The rejection of the yet-to-be announced results of last Saturday’s presidential election by the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) weigh on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) on Tuesday.

The equities market, which had closed positive on Monday, went down by 0.69 percent today as the PDP’s poll rejection triggered fear among traders on Tuesday.

Though the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is yet to officially announce the eventual winner of the election, results trickling in suggest that the coast is getting clear for the re-election of President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Business Post observed that during trading today, investors were being watchful, trying to sell off some stocks so as not to be caught unawares.

At the close business, Nestle Nigeria, which topped the losers’ chart, went down by N70 to settle at N1510 per share.

It was followed by Union Bank, which lost 60 kobo to finish at N6.65k per share, and FBN Holdings, which declined by 30 kobo to close at N8 per share.

Zenith Bank depreciated by 20 kobo to end at N25.80k per share, while GlaxoSmithKline reduced in value by 20 kobo to settle at N11.80k per share.

On the flip side, Guinness Nigeria topped the gainers’ table with N2.05k added to its share value to close at N67.15k per unit.

It was followed by Dangote Flour, which rose by N1 to finish at N12.05k per share, and Oando, which appreciated by 65 kobo to end at N7.25k per share.

Newrest ASL Nigeria improved by 60 kobo to finish at N7.05k per share, while Africa Prudential increased by 44 kobo to finish at N4.84k per share.

Business Post reports that the volume of shares traded at the market today improved by 46.59 percent to 322.2 million units from 219.8 million units yesterday, while the value of the equities reduced by 57.14 percent from N5.6 billion to N2.4 billion.

Sunu Assurances Nigeria recorded the highest volume of transactions, trading 50.8 million units of its shares worth N10.2 million.

It was followed by Access Bank, which traded 32.3 million equities valued at N203.1 million, and Diamond Bank, which exchanged 28.6 million stocks worth N70.1 million.

UBA transacted 19 million shares for N153.7 million, while GTBank exchanged 17.8 million equities worth N677.7 million.

An analysis of the major market indices showed that the market capitalisation reduced by N84 billion to close at N12.110 trillion, while the All-Share Index (ASI) went down by 226.30 points to finish at 32,473.82 points.

https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/26/pdps-rejection-of-poll-results-triggers-stocks-0-69-fall/

FBN Holdings Restricts Trading of Shares on NSE
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/26/fbn-holdings-restricts-trading-of-shares-on-nse-as-board-meets/

NSE, FMDQ Admit Sterling Bank’s N33b Bonds
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/26/nse-fmdq-admit-sterling-banks-n33b-bonds/

By Dipo Olowookere

Former Commissioner of Police in Lagos and Benue States, Mr Fatai Owoseni, has disclosed that what an average police station in Nigeria gets as allocation per quarter for its operations is not more than N30,000, amounting to N10,000 per month.

Mr Owoseni, who retired from the police force in December 2018, made this disclosure in the early hours of Monday, February 25, 2019.

The retired cop was a guest on Channels Television’s popular election programme, The Verdict, which was monitored by Business Post.

Speaking on the pathetic nature of things at the security agency, the former Commissioner said the poor funding has made it impossible for the police to perform well like they do when on foreign missions.

“What an average police station receive as allocation is not more than N30,000 per quarter. How do you want them to perform excellently well?” he asked on the programme.

“Yes, I was a Commissioner of Police in Lagos and before then, I was in the Operations at the Force Headquarters and I know how the funding of the police is.

“Sometimes, the N30,000 allocation for the first quarter of the year may not come until the third quarter; that is the condition the police operates under.

“Let me make it clear that this is not a case of the Inspector General of Police (IGP) embezzling the money, but it is what is allocated to the police by the government.

“When you take what is budgeted to the Force to the police stations in the country, what gets to each is just too small to work with.

“This is making enforcement of law very difficult in the country. Nigeria is the most difficult place in the world to enforce any law. I want anybody to challenge me on this.

“When it comes to investigation and prosecution of cases in this country, the police spends a lot of time to investigate a case and when it comes to prosecution, because the law says you must prove beyond reasonable doubt, your key witness will run away and when your principal witnesses are not available, there is nothing much a policeman can do,” the former police chief said.

https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/25/average-police-station-in-nigeria-gets-n30000-per-quarter-as-allocation-owoseni/

Zenith Bank Won't Seek Fresh Funds After $500m Eurobond Expires
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/25/zenith-bank-wont-seek-fresh-funds-after-500m-eurobond-expires/

T-Bills Market Bullish as Overnight Rate Rises to 20.25% on Liquidity Squeeze
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/23/t-bills-market-bullish-as-overnight-rate-rises-to-20-25-on-liquidity-squeeze/

6-Month T-Bills Yields Gain 1.23% Amid Further Absence of OMO Sale
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/21/6-month-t-bills-yields-gain-1-23-amid-further-absence-of-omo-sale/

Newrest ASL Provides Funds to Pay Minority Shareholders
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/20/newrest-asl-provides-funds-to-pay-minority-shareholders/

T-Bills Yields Weaken to 14.06% on Absence of OMO Auction
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/20/t-bills-yields-weaken-to-14-06-on-absence-of-omo-auction/

Sterling Bank Secures $65m Loans from Arab Bank
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/19/sterling-bank-secures-65m-loans-from-arab-bank/

Diamond-Access Bank: A New Dawn for Investors, Shareholders
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/19/diamond-access-bank-a-new-dawn-for-investors-shareholders/

How’s the Nigerian Insurance Industry Changing?
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/19/hows-the-nigerian-insurance-industry-changing/

Access Bank Risks Negative Pressures After Merger—Moody's
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/19/access-bank-risks-negative-pressures-after-merger-moodys/

Zenith Bank Earnings Drop 15%, Proposes N2.50k Dividend
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/19/zenith-bank-earnings-drop-15-proposes-n2-50k-dividend/

Stocks to Buy, Sell, Hold This Week
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/19/stocks-to-buy-sell-hold-this-week/

Yields Drop 0.11% as CBN Snubs Investors' Demand for OMO Bills
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/19/yields-drop-0-11-as-cbn-snubs-investors-request-for-omo-bills/

By Dipo Olowookere

Stock market indices depreciated on Monday following the postponement of the 2019 general elections by one week last Saturday.

This triggered sell pressure on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), forcing it to close 1.61 percent lower in the first trading day of the week.

Investors had hoped to start getting a clear picture of who will likely be the President of Nigeria by the time market reopens on Monday, but that expectation was dashed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which shifted the polls in the wee hours of Saturday.

By the time market resumed yesterday, most investors began to sell off their holdings due to the uncertainty caused by the shift.

It was observed that losses were recorded by some big players in the stock market, with Total Nigeria suffering the heaviest, losing N15 to close at N190 per share.

Mobil Oil fell by N14 to settle at N170 per share, while Nigerian Breweries declined by N8 to finish at N75 per share.

GTBank lost N1.45k to end at N36.50k per share, while CCNN went down by N1 to settle at N20 per share.

At the other side, Nestle emerged the biggest price gainer, going up by N35 to close the day at N1600 per share.

It was followed by Beta Glass, which rose by N6.70k to settle at N79 per share, and Presco, which appreciated by N6.60k to end at N72.60k per share.

CAP appreciated by N2.20k to settle at N34 per share, while Dangote Flour increased its share value by 45 kobo to finish at N9.60k per share.

During transactions yesterday, the total volume and value of shares traded by investors decreased by 71.13 percent and 48.15 percent respectively.

A total of 233.5 million equities worth N3.4 billion were traded in 4,135 deals on Monday in contrast to the 808.6 million shares worth N6.5 billion transacted last Friday in 6,177 deals.

Access Bank was the darling of investors yesterday, trading 25.3 million units of its shares valued at N160.2 million.

It was followed by Chams, which sold 21.7 million units worth N4.3 million, and UBA, which transacted 20.5 million shares for N157.2 million.

Zenith Bank exchanged 15.7 million shares worth N375.3 million, while GTBank transacted 13.9 million equities worth N519.1 million.

An analysis of the major market indices showed that the All-Share Index (ASI) depreciated by 525.13 points to settle at 32,190.07 points, while the market capitalisation reduced by N196 billion to close at N12.004 trillion.

https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/19/nigerian-stocks-crash-as-polls-postponement-triggers-fresh-fears/

Investors Resume Trading in Goldlink Insurance Shares
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/18/investors-resume-trading-in-goldlink-insurance-shares/

Africa Prudential to Pay Dividend to Shareholders
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/18/africa-prudential-to-pay-dividend-to-shareholders/

Monitor These Four Stocks This Week
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/18/monitor-these-four-stocks-this-week/

Newrest ASL Increases Dividend Payout by 11%
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/18/newrest-asl-increases-dividend-payout-by-11/

What to Expect at Equities Market This Week
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/18/what-to-expect-at-equities-market-this-week/

Transcorp Assures Shareholders More Significant Yields
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/18/transcorp-assures-shareholders-more-significant-yields/

Market Expects Liquidity Boost as N578.99b OMO Bills Mature
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/18/market-expects-liquidity-boost-as-n578-99b-omo-bills-mature/

Notore Suffers Free Float Deficiency, Risks NSE Sanction
https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/16/notore-suffers-free-float-deficiency-risks-nse-sanction/

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The board of Axa Mansard Insurance Plc has announced the suspension of the massive hospital investment project it plans to establish in Lagos.

In 2017, the firm informed the investing community of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) that it was planning to construct a 150-bed hospital and two 10-bed clinics in Lagos.

According to the notice released by the firm then, the project was expected to gulp about N28 billion and was due to be completed in 24 to 30 months from commencement of construction.

The firm had said upon completion, the project would be one of the largest and best resourced private hospitals in Nigeria and will provide a variety of inpatient and outpatient healthcare services.

The project was to be funded through an equal mix of equity and debt, with Axa Mansard already reaching an agreement with IFC, Africa Capital Alliance (a Private Equity fund) and other strategic investors to finance the project.

However, at the 77th meeting of board of directors of Axa Mansard Insurance held on Wednesday, February 13, 2019, it was unanimously agreed to put the project “on hold due to unforeseen circumstances.”

In a notice to the NSE on Thursday, the board, which did not give any details of the “unforeseen circumstance,” noted that it has already directed the management of the firm “to embark on further studies in order to determine an appropriate structure of intervention within the Nigerian healthcare delivery system.”

Also during the meeting, the board approved the company’s financial results for the year ended December 31, 2018, authorising the management to submit the Audited Financial Statements and Accounts to the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) for its approval.

It resolved that upon receipt of the approval of NAICOM, the results should be filed with the NSE and upon obtaining regulatory approval, summary of the financial statements must be public.

https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/16/axa-mansard-suspends-n28b-hospital-project-in-lagos/

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has announced the postponement of the 2019 general elections.

Chairman of INEC, Prof Mahmood Yakubu, made the announcement in the early hours of Saturday that the polls have been shifted by one week.

This followed an intensive meeting Mr Yakubu held with the 12 national electoral commissioners on Friday in Abuja.

The INEC chief said the decision to postpone the polls was reached to allow the commission conduct a credible exercise.

The presidential and National Assembly elections were scheduled for Saturday, February 16, 2019, but INEC said these polls would now take place on Saturday, February 23, 2019.

Also, the governorship and state houses of assembly polls earlier fixed for Saturday, March 2, 2019 have now been shifted to Saturday, March 9, 2019.

https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/16/breaking-inec-postpones-2019-general-elections/

By Omoshola Deji

Election is the recruitment of persons with the largest percentage electorates feel are capable of actualizing their imaginings of an ideal nation.

Nigerians elect their leaders every four years and the time is here. Parties have campaigned; candidates have promised; sociocultural groups have endorsed; observers have arrived; and Nigerians are preparing to elect their President and federal lawmakers on February 16. This piece appraises the election winning determinants to foretell the outcome of the presidential poll.

A brief introduction and clarification is essential at this point. The writer, subsequently titled Pundit, is Nigeria’s election result Nostradamus. Foretelling election’s outcome is a reflection of his political analysis prowess, not an endorsement of any party or candidate. The accuracy of his past forecasts has attracted the media and many Nigerians, home and abroad, to look out for his prediction during elections.

Foretelling an election outcome doesn’t mean the pundit has access to one sacred information or the election winning strategy of any candidate. Assessing candidates’ fortes and flaws to foretell the winner is a common practice in developed nations. This doesn’t mean the pundits are demeaning the electoral process or influencing the election results. Nigerians have already decided who they’ll cast their votes for and nothing – not this prediction – can easily change their minds.

The Candidates

The 2019 presidential election is going to be the most keenly contested in the history of Nigeria, not because there are many contestants, but due to the rise in power struggle and the personality of the top candidates. 73 persons are running, but the election is a two horse race between incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

Other leading contestants are Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress (AAC); Fela Durotoye of the Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN) and Kinsley Moghalu of the Young Progressive Party (YPP).

Sowore, Durotoye and Moghalu are ‘young’ vibrant newcomers, but their political structures are too weak to win a presidential election in a plural nation like Nigeria. Power and greed made coalition efforts that would have made them a formidable third force fail. Teaming up to support a fellow candidate shouldn’t cause disaffection, if their main desire is to rescue Nigeria from the old order.

The similarity in the background of the two main candidates, Atiku and Buhari, renders ethno-religious based predictions impotent. Unlike in 2015, when a Christian southerner contested against a Muslim northerner, the two leading presidential candidates in 2019 are both Northerners, Fulanis, Muslims and septuagenarians. Both candidates are veteran contestants and have crisscrossed parties. This election is Atiku’s fourth attempt. Buhari won on his fourth attempt in 2015 and wants another term.

Buhari’s Performance and Obstacle

Buhari, like every other incumbent, is contesting against two things: his performance and his opponents. His main opponent, Atiku, has far-reaching networks and has been campaigning vigorously. Unlike candidates who are running for the fame, Atiku’s rigorous campaign is a testimonial that he is running to win. He is leaving no stone unturned, knowing this opportunity may not present itself again as he is aging and power is expected to return to the south, if Buhari wins. Atiku has been working on the electorates’ psyche, reconciling with foes, getting endorsements, and turning his major liabilities into assets. His recent visit to the Unites States (US) was a political masterstroke that revived his diminishing electoral value tainted by corruption.

Nigerians are sharply divided on Buhari’s performance. In all sincerity, both the praise singers and condemners of Buhari’s performance are right. The praise singers are rating Buhari based on the achievements of his predecessors, many of whom score low on the provision of basic amenities, security and socioeconomic development. Buhari has performed satisfactorily when compared with his predecessors. He is reviving the railway, constructing the Second Niger Bridge, building a number of roads, and combating Boko Haram. Buhari has also paid the defunct Nigerian Airways’ pensioners and introduced social incentives such as school feeding, N-Power and Tradermoni, which the opposition has criticized as vote-buying.

The presidential election is partly a referendum on Buhari’s performance. He would earn the votes of people who think he has performed, while those who think otherwise and mindful that the second term of governments are often not better than their first would vote other candidates.

The condemners of Buhari’s performance are rating him based on his inability to fulfil some of his 2015 campaign promises. They are berating him for performing below expectations after raising hopes of Nigerians. Buhari promised restructuring, but backtracked. His appointments were lopsided northwards. Insecurity is rife as bandits, insurgents and herdsmen are carrying out genocidal bloodletting at will. The fight against corruption has been incredibly selective, making Transparency International rank Nigeria the 144 least corrupt nation out of 175. Buhari has serially flouted court orders; persecuted activists and journalists; tolerated the massacre of unarmed IPOB and Shiite members; harassed the legislature and judiciary; ruled in a dictatorial manner; and hounded critics. Basic amenities are either dysfunctional or unavailable, the exchange rate is high, consumables are costly and unemployment is at an alarming rate. Buhari’s performance is unsatisfactory if he’s assessed by the oversweet promises he doled out in 2015. His misrule and incompetence is winning hearts for Atiku.

Atiku’s Challenge

Buhari has reiterated his resolve to further tackle corruption, insecurity and revive the economy, while Atiku boast of capacity to provide jobs, eradicate poverty and resuscitate the economy. One major minus for Atiku is the comment of his former boss, ex-President Olusegun Obabsanjo when their relationship was not cordial. In his book titled My Watch, Obasanjo said “what I did not know, which came out glaringly later, was his parental background which was somewhat shadowy, his propensity to corruption, his tendency to disloyalty, his inability to say and stick to the truth all the time, a propensity for poor judgment, his belief and reliance on marabouts , his lack of transparency, his trust in money to buy his way out on all issues and his readiness to sacrifice morality, integrity, propriety truth and national interest for self and selfish interest”.

Though Obasanjo has reconciled and endorsed Atiku, many Nigerians are still using the statements in ‘My Watch’ to discredit Atiku.

Endorsement Effects

Endorsement still influences voters, even though political parties belittle its effect when they are unable to secure it. People living in the rural areas and traditional societies where the recommendations of leaders are highly revered largely vote based on endorsements. Candidates also use endorsements to convince dissenting voices and undecided voters. Atiku has gotten influential endorsements than Buhari. Leaders and elders of notable regional sociocultural groups, including the Middle Belt Forum (North-Central), Ohanaeze Ndigbo (South-East), PAN Niger Delta Forum (South-South); and the prominent faction of Afenifere (South-West) have all endorsed Atiku. The most shocking endorsement Atiku got was that of the Northern Elders Forum, which has a significant influence on the conservative Muslim Northerners who are largely supporters of Buhari. The Arewa Consultative Forum however gave a counter endorsement in favour of Buhari.

Ruling parties are always the most favoured on endorsements. The opposition PDP’s numerous endorsement is a pointer that the regional leaders distrust APC, or the party simply choose to connect the people directly through the distribution of business aid such as Tradermoni. The latter may not earn Buhari votes. The beneficiaries of Tradermoni are largely sympathizers of their various sociocultural groups which have endorsed Atiku. An Igbo trader who’s aware that Ohaneze Ndigbo endorsed Atiku to end the marginalization of his ethnic group under Buhari would most likely vote Atiku, despite receiving Tradermoni. Sociocultural groups have a way of awakening the ethnic sentiments that’ll make people vote their endorsed candidates. The culture is gradually changing as people are increasingly voting based on personal convictions.

The Generals Influence

When getting less, the APC discredit endorsements, but applaud same when persons or groups back Buhari. 71 retired Military Generals endorsed Buhari for second term. This is a coming against some of the prominent Generals and former Heads of State’s opposition to Buhari’s re-election. Generals Olusegun Obasanjo, Ibrahim Babangida and Theophilus Danjuma are against Buhari, General Yakubu Gowon has been apolitical, while General Abdulsalami Abubakar is the head of the National Peace Committee. Buhari’s rejection by his powerful and influential contemporaries may hinder his win as the Generals, especially Obasanjo, have always determined who becomes President.

The Generals have vast political structures as they were the ones who nurtured almost all the leading political actors in Nigeria presently. Obasanjo is one of the ruling APC’s major nightmares as he is determined to end Buhari’s reign and install PDP’s Atiku. His choice candidates have always emerged, including Buhari in 2015. Obasanjo is well-respected by the international community. His global weight and networks can ruin Buhari, if he’s declared winner based on electoral fraud and post-election conflict arises. Obasanjo is doing his best to ensure Buhari doesn’t win as such will diminished his relevance and retire him from politics.

The Aso Rock Cabal

Aisha Buhari’s statement that her husband’s government had been hijacked by a cabal would make Buhari lose votes. Aisha disclosed at the National Women Leadership Summit that two powerful individuals have been commandeering her husband and preventing him from performing. Buhari denied the allegation, but many Nigerians believe his wife’s statement is a revelation of the goings-on in Aso Rock. The President’s failure to regain public confidence by rejigging his cabinet would make many people vote against him to end the cabal’s reign.

Health Factor

Buhari’s deteriorating health and failing memory would also diminish his votes. Many Nigerians believe Buhari would spend most of his tenure receiving treatment abroad, if he wins. His inability to remember basic things and serial gaffes such as forgetting the year he was sworn-in, referring to the APC gubernatorial candidate in Delta State as senatorial and presidential candidate, as well as lifting the hand of the wrong candidate in Cross River State makes many Nigerians see him has mentally unfit to continue ruling.

Atiku has shown more mental alertness, but his pledge to enrich friends is making him lose public trust. Nigerians may decide to return a sick, dictatorial and incompetent Buhari to power because of Atiku’s corruption tendencies and embracement of crony capitalism – enriching friends through privatization.

Elites Gang-up

The APC intraparty crisis across states and the exit of influential persons from the party may deny Buhari a win. APC was formidable in 2015 than it is now. The party immensely profited from the mass exit of political heavyweights from the then ruling PDP. This largely helped President Buhari defeat then President Jonathan. Most of the heavyweights are back in the PDP and are determined to unseat Buhari. Some of them includes the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar; Senate President Bukola Saraki; Governors Samuel Ortom and Aminu Tambuwal of Benue and Sokoto States; House of Representative Speaker, Yakubu Dogara; and ex-Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State. The exit of these bigwigs from the APC would certainly not make victory easy for Buhari. The ruling APC tried to make up for this by winning over ex-Governors Godswill Akpabio and Emmanuel Uduaghan of Akwa-Ibom and Delta States. These former governors cannot garner many votes for Buhari. Their influence is limited to their states which are PDP strongholds and majority of the people in the Niger-Delta region are anti Buhari.

The array of political elites that Buhari have been persecuting and prosecuting would also unleash their arsenal to ensure he never gets re-elected. Those affected by Buhari’s unfavourable economic policies and others not profiting from his government would likewise do all possible to make him lose.

The International Community

Atiku’s entry into the US and the foreign condemnation of Buhari’s anti-democratic actions are crucial pointers that the international community would prefer an Atiku Presidency. Buhari’s imperfection must not make one take the international community’s preference as best for the country. Buhari is not getting their support, not because of his underperformance, but because he has resisted dependency and neocolonialism; hindering them from exploiting the nation. The western nations are only friends with governments that allow them have their way and they are renowned for going the extra mile to remove uncontrollable leaders. Kwame Nkruma, Patrice Lumumba and Julius Nyerere are credible lessons. Buhari’s shortcoming is creating an avenue for the West to have their way through Atiku. The PDP campaign to ‘get Nigeria working again’ is coming at a time when the majority is complaining that virtually nothing is working.

INEC and Security

An excellent professional conduct should not be expected from the security agencies and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The secret midnight meetings allegedly being held by the INEC leadership and Buhari’s henchmen may lead to intentional misconduct by the electoral umpire. The security chiefs would try to appear neutral, but their partisanship would manifest if the election is a tight race and Buhari needs some misconduct to pave way for a rerun or make him win. The heads of the security agencies, especially the police commissioners in many states would most likely turn a blind eye on wrongs done to aid Buhari’s win.

Voting

There are 84,004,084 registered voters in Nigeria. By population ranking, the number of registered voters and persons who have collected their permanent voters card (PVC) across the six geopolitical zones are as follows:

North West: 20,158,100 registered voters, 18,882,854 PVCs collected.

South West: 16,292,212 registered voters, 12,444,594 PVCs collected.

North Central: 13,366,070 registered voters, 11,849,027 PVCs collected.

South South: 12,841,279 registered voters, 11,574,944 PVCs collected.

North East: 11,289,293 registered voters, 10,402,734 PVCs collected.

South East: 10,057,130 registered voters, 9,071,939 PVCs collected.

The above data shows that out of the 84,004,084 persons who registered to vote, only 74,199,092 can vote having collected their PVCs. 9,804,992 are yet to collect theirs. APC’s Buhari comes from the Northwest, while PDP’s Atiku is from the North-East. Both candidates would garner huge votes in each other’s zone, but Buhari would come top. This is largely due to the cult followership Buhari enjoys in the North. Majority of the northern voting population supports Buhari blindly; they believe PDP’s 16 years of misrule is responsible for Buhari’s failings.

Another plus for Buhari is that his party, the APC, controls the largely populated states – Lagos and Kano. Out of the 36 states of the federation, APC is the incumbent government in 23 states, while PDP is the incumbent government in 13. APC is also the incumbent government in majority of the Northern states and the entire 6 states in the Southwest. Atiku would likely defeat Buhari in the North-Central. He would defeat Buhari in the South-South and South-East. Atiku would earn substantial votes in the Southwest, but Buhari would earn more.

Vote Buying

Agents of the two prominent candidates will induce voters with money. People thinking Buhari’s anti-corruption stance would make his team desist from inducing voters would be disappointed. As it is before now, the party stalwarts would utter untruths that the money being shared is not from the Presidency, but from supporters who are passionate about the continuity of Buhari’s government. There would be several I-love-you-more-than-God behaviours during the election. People will voluntarily commit electoral fraud, threaten supporters of rival parties, cause mayhem, and kill to ensure their favourite candidate wins.

The APC and PDP supporters boasting their candidates would win by landslide are just being over emotional. Both candidates have major flaws that can’t make that happen. Atiku is widely considered corrupt, while Buhari is broadly seen as nepotistic and unfit. These negatives limit their chances of winning by landslide. Such win is often earned by candidates with minor flaws.

The Pundit’s Verdict

Buhari’s shortcomings will affect, but can’t hinder his win. The three main determinants of electoral victory in Nigeria are the votes cast, the conducts of the electoral umpire (INEC), and the security agencies, especially the police. Buhari apparently has INEC and the security agencies on his side and would get many votes as a popular candidate, but may need a push. His henchmen will not hesitate to do anything, licit or illicit, to retain power when the chips are down.

Notables like Dele Momodu and prominent institutions such as Williams and Associates, and the Economist Intelligence Unit predicting Buhari would lose did not consider something crucial – recent happenings and Buhari’s arbitrariness. Up to the minute actions of Buhari are pointers that his government would stop at nothing to retain power. The intimidation of voters and staggering electoral fraud that was allegedly perpetrated during the Osun governorship and rerun elections; the reported secret meeting with INEC heads; the alleged political removal of Chief Justice Walter Onnoghen; the untoward display of force by the military across states; and the politically motivated transfer of police commissioners and other top officers are not for nothing. An incumbent government that is obsessed with power cannot put all these strategies in place in an undeveloped democracy and lose.

Nigerians are worried that a partial conduct by INEC and the security agencies may lead to a rerun, the Venezuela situation or foist the Odinga-Kenyetta model on Nigeria. Except God touches the mind of those occupying Aso Rock, relinquishing power to the opposition doesn’t look like what the ruling cabal is willing to do, except Atiku wins by a landslide, which is almost impossible. Against the predictions of Williams and Associates and the Economist, the Pundit foretells that the APC candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, would be declared President-elect.

Omoshola Deji is a political and public affairs analyst. He wrote in via moshdeji@yahoo.com

https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/16/2019-presidential-election-foretelling-the-outcome/

**Says GDP Still Below 3% Population Growth[i][/i]

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has described the growth path of the Nigerian economy as still weak, vulnerable and fragile.

This was made known in reaction to the release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures of the Africa’s largest economy for the fourth quarter of 2018 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) earlier this week.

The stats office said in Q4 of last year, the nation’s economy grew by 2.4 percent in contrast to the 1.8 percent recorded in the third quarter of the year.

According to the LCCI, this growth mirrored the performance of the non-oil sector which improved by 2.7 percent year-on-year, with the full year GDP improving by 1.9 percent better than the 0.8 percent growth achieved in 2017.

For the LCCI, this performance is still weak and fragile because it is far below 3 percent annual population growth, emphasising that this remains a cause for concern due to its wider on inclusive and sustainable growth in the country.

Taking a look at the sectoral contribution to overall GDP in 2018, crop production, trade and telecoms were the major contributors.

Agriculture expanded by 2.1 percent in 2018, recording the lowest growth since 1993, with crop production emerging as the major driver of this sector performance, accounting for 88 percent of agricultural output in 2018. In terms of contribution, agriculture accounted for 25 percent of real output in the year.

Also, the Crude, Petroleum & Natural Gas sector contributed 8.60 percent to the GDP last with average daily oil production at 1.91 million barrel per day in fourth quarter 2018. This was lower than the 1.95 MBPD recorded in same quarter 2017. The oil sector grew by 1.1 percent as against 4.69 percent recorded in 2017.

In the GDP numbers, the manufacturing sector recorded an annual growth rate of 2.09 percent in 2018, marking a significant improvement of -0.21 percent in the previous year, contributing about 9.20 percent to overall GDP.

Furthermore, trade sector contracted by -0.63 percent in 2018 from -1.05 percent and -0.24 percent in 2016, contributing 17.16 percent in 2018. The declining performance of this sector signifies that Nigerian consumers are still under severe pressure in terms of weak purchasing power, as trade is a major consumer facing sector.

However, Telecommunication and Information services sector grew by 11.33 percent in 2018 from -2.04 percent in 2017 and 2.03 percent in 2016, contributing about 10 percent to overall GDP.

In its notes, LCCI said the growth was far below the country’s population growth of 3.0 percent, with wider implications for poverty, inclusive and sustainable growth.

It pointed out that sectors such as Trade, Manufacturing and Agriculture recorded low performance, signifying weakness on the part of the consumers purchasing power.

“The growth in the economy is also tagged a ‘Jobless growth’ as unemployment keeps on rising. The latest report by poverty world clock also suggests that the number of extremely poor Nigerians has risen to 91.6 million.

“We suggest that policies and reforms that will attract investment into the key employment elastic sectors should be implemented,” the LCCI said.

https://businesspost.ng/2019/02/16/nigerias-economic-growth-jobless-growth-lcci/

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