₦airaland Forum

fstranger1:
Nah, I plan on going back once i am done paying my ridiculous student loan. I havent given up on project Nigeria. I still want to be a senator some day, milk the ND of its oil.    .     .   you know what i am talking about!

Yeah those student loans are a b1tch. Bleh. Very much worth it, though.

^-- So you've given up on Project Nigeria? 

You will while away your days in luxury and splendor in the US? Never to return to the land of your ancestors? Proly grab yourself a redbone too and name your son Tyrone, or something   

Alas! 

[size=4pt](i'm mostly joking)[/size]

^-- My homie @kalokalo has taken up the baton

Do you plan on doing your youth service, @fstranger? Or skipping out?

@Jenifa: You teach ESL? Pretty cool!

^-- You got knocked out already, dude. Or maybe a better analogy is the Black Knight from Monty Python:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhRUe-gz690

Are private security men in Nigeria allowed to carry guns?

If so, then no big deal.

If not, then really sucks for the banks, doesn't it?

Projects like this make my heart glad.

When Danladi Verheijen has to attend an important meeting, he doesn't know whether getting there will take 10 minutes or three hours. "You're going to upset someone," he says. "You're going to arrive very early or very late. It leads to massive loss of productivity."

Verheijen works in Lagos, one of the world's fastest growing megacities – and one of the most congested. The simplest journey here can be a trial of will. Such is the snail's pace of morning traffic that hawkers patrol the queues selling socks and phone chargers, McVitie's digestives and shaving kits.

But Verheijen believes he can do something to break the deadlock. The 34-year-old venture capitalist is leading a group of investors in Lagos's first city railway. He believes the multibillion-dollar project could transform daily life for millions of people in this uniquely challenging metropolis, and potentially expand west from Nigeria to Ghana.

"I think it will dramatically change the face of Lagos," he said. "One of the lines is in an area people come to in the middle of Lagos island to work. To get to work at 8am, they probably have to leave their house right now about 5.30am or 5.45am. When our trains start working, they can probably leave their home at 7.25am. It's a difference of two hours. If you're saving between two and four hours a day, it's a dramatic effect.

"It's cheaper than the alternative, it's faster, it's safer, it's more reliable, it's more environmentally friendly. So it's very exciting."

Many railways laid during Africa's colonial era have decayed due to neglect, leaving Cecil John Rhodes's Cape-to-Cairo fantasy more remote than ever. In large parts of Nigeria, overgrown tracks and abandoned stations testify to the triumph of cars and planes.

But Lagos is badly in need of mass public transport beyond its recently introduced bus rapid transit system. Nigeria's commercial capital, built on a swamp and a series of islands, will overtake Cairo as Africa's biggest city in the next five years with a population of 12.4 million, according to the UN.

Urban expansion is one of the biggest challenges facing Africa as people migrate from rural areas in search of a better life. With its cities set to triple in size over the next 40 years, overcrowded slums, choked roads and pollution are already big problems.

It is hoped that a rail renaissance can be part of the solution. Last year, South Africa launched the R24bn (£2.17bn) Gautrain, linking Johannesburg to its international airport at speeds of up to 100mph, with further expansion to include the administrative capital, Pretoria, a notoriously busy route for motorists.

Lagos's EkoRail – Eko means Lagos in the Yoruba language – is the biggest public-private partnership in Lagos state and will eventually comprise seven railway lines, each costing more than $1bn (£630m). Two lines are already well advanced. The red will run north to south from Lagos island to Agbado through 13 stations. The blue will run 17 miles from the island to Okokomaiko in the middle of an expanded motorway.

It is hoped the lines will carry 1.4 million passengers per day. They will be powered by electricity rather than diesel but, with the national grid notoriously unreliable, EkoRail is building its own 30-40 MW power station, with excess power benefiting the motorway and local communities. The trains could begin test runs late next year.

Reflecting a growing trend in Africa, the project's infrastructure is being built by a Chinese contractor. Verheijen said: "They're much more competitive and aggressive about doing business. They're working Saturdays, they're working Sundays, they're working at nights. They come here and have big housing estates for their staff and just seem to work like armies. It's very focused and things go up very quickly."

Asked who was benefiting from the construction jobs, he said: "A lot of Chinese, some Nigerians as well. I'm not averse to that.

"We need infrastructure. We need toll roads, we need airports, we need rail, we need water transportation systems, we need power. That just allows entrepreneurs to take off from there."

Verheijen said the first goal was to silence the sceptics and show that rail transport was a viable option. But then, encouraged by wider signs of recovery in the national railway sector, he has ambitions to go further in Nigeria and beyond.

"The blue line goes to Badagry [west of Lagos]. It just makes sense to take that on to Togo and to Ghana. It will create trade and move people and also goods across west Africa. It probably sounds ludicrous, it might not even work, but we need to think about expanding in these ways.

"I understand it costs more money to take a container from Lagos to Abuja [the Nigerian capital] than it does to ship one from China to Lagos. Unbelievable. Rail, hopefully, will change a lot of that."

Verheijen hopes that one day Lagosians will find the railway as indispensable as Londoners. "I think as businesses get more competitive, people care a lot more about their time. Ten years ago we didn't have mobile phones and every time you had a message, you literally had to send somebody. We've become a lot more efficient now with the proliferation of mobile phones and can't even imagine ourselves living in that era. I'm sure rail transportation will be the same here.

"Ten years from now, we will not be able to imagine how we were able to slug through traffic every day."

Some veterans of Lagos's go-slow traffic arteries have welcomed the new scheme. Tolu Ogunlesi, a journalist and author, would leave home at 5.45am to reach his office at 8am. "It's not unusual to find Lagosians waking at 4am so they can be sure of getting to the office at eight," he said. "It's a crazy life.

"I'd definitely use the Lagos rail. I think it's pure insanity for anyone to assume that Lagos's traffic problems can be solved without a means of moving large numbers of people between the mainland and the island with minimum delay outside of the existing road system. And what would that be if not a rail system?

"So far the government has tried buses and bus lanes, but clearly something more imaginative, and drastic, is required. Imagine what London would be without the tube – and Lagos has more people than London."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/14/lagos-railway-change-lives-nigeria

@kalokalo: You carry on the good fight. Been here all day on this stuff, when I actually have work to do, lol.

ola olabiy:
Don't tell me 50 billion is too big for our country. In fact, we can easily raise the money. But, the money will surely grow wings.

Where will we raise the $50 billion from? More importantly, how do we prevent it from being stolen?

@tensor777: There is a pretty good slide I read a few months ago which is a good pointer to the issues in the power sector. Of course, there is a lot more than this to it, but it is a good start:

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=1&sqi=2&ved=0CBYQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbcglobal.org%2FCBCG_Library%2FAYO%2520Gbeleyi%2C%2520Power.ppsx&ei=WRMxTdLBCsaqlAfB0sjNCg&usg=AFQjCNHat4X8FgC4Qpx4oXEsByCstWYT8A

(The above is a 4.9 MB powerpoint presentation, so do not download if on a slow internet connection! And if you are hesitant to click the link above, you can get the same document by just googling "Ayo Gbeleyi."

The two Lagos Discos (Ikeja and Eko) look as if they'll be pretty attractive to investors.

ola olabiy:
Baseless, I must say.

So, they are subsidize there already rich populace.

But, you want the poor of Nigeria who can't afford tuition fees  to go it alone?
I said, you guys have been catered for by your parents. Hence, your jaundiced analysis.

Offer a solution. If you want massive subsidies, then where will the money come to pay for it? More shakedowns of the Niger Delta people out of their oil wealth? Or is there some other idea you have in mind?

So the generator cabal is going to destroy Reliant Energy's equipment if Reliant Energy is sold the Ikeja Distribution Company?  

Somehow, in a fight between Reliant Energy and the generator cabal, I'll put my money on Reliant. If you f.u.ck with their money, you'll die. They'll probably hire the OPC boys in Lagos to provide security for them. Or bring in their own security outfit, with orders to shoot on sight. Who knows what they'd do. . . but needless to say, the gen cabal wouldn't be able to do a thing.

SapeleGuy:
Nigeria is too fragile for the removal of subsidies. How can you justify the removal when Europe & America subsidise their farmers so heavily. Is this not double standards?

THey are rich, we are POOR!

Rich man sends his son to college for free, poor man tells his son he doesn't have money, so the poor son takes loan or finds another way to pay.

SapeleGuy:
Forget the investors for now, you are trying to run before you have crawled. Only FGN can make the massive fianancial investment that is required.  
Your theory didn't work for the steel industry. Why will it work here?

I don't get it. First of all, the FGN doesn't have the cash to do the job, especially if it spending so much on subsidies. So in a very real sense, we absolutely need foreign investment, if we want power working. Foreign companies have no problem spending $500 million, $6 billion at a time on the power sector.

BTW, the capital requirements for Nigeria won't be just 500 mil or even 6 billion. You should be thinking on the order of $50 billion, $100 billion.

Would you trust the Nigerian government to spend $100 billion properly?  

Long story short, I trust Reliant Energy (the local power company here in Houston) a helluva lot more than I trust the Nigerian government (for example.)

But all of this is a moot point until the subsidies are removed, anyway.

Regarding the steel industry, I don't know that business very well, so I cannot say.

duplicate

tensor777:
The problem is if I were a foreign investor I would not touch the power supply market in Nigeria with a barge pole.
The reason is that NEPA has so distorted the market and given people the idea that electricity is something to be enjoyed almost free of charge.

Great point.

Also where are the industries that would serve as customers to the power companies.?

This isn't an issue. The 5,000 MW (or I guess 2600 MW, from what @Kobojunkie says) is much smaller than that actually consumed. I'm not sure off the top of my head what the figures is, maybe 10,000MW from gen? Something enormous.

If it were me, I'd buy the Lagos grids and start there. At least with Lagos, you know what whatever improvements and energy you generate will be quickly snapped up. Even if you want to sell at $0.20, people will pay. My uncle runs gen for his business in Lagos and has told me that roughly 20% of his business costs are on fuel. Anybody who offers to cut his costs by 2/3+ will be a hero to him.

I don't like OBJ. . . but dude his hilarious

ola olabiy:
I acn't even see the said subsidy o.

Expatiate, please!

For the 3 or 4 hrs per day you get light, you pay roughly 4 cents or so per kWh.

If you fix the regulatory environment and allow people to set their own price for electricity, you'll see substantial investment in power generation.

It makes no sense to complain that no investor wants to come and bring money, when you make him sell the thing for less than it costs to produce.

Or are you going to invest in rice farming if the government forces you to sell your rice for less than it costs to produce

Fix this and privatize and you can get to 100,000 MW within 5 years.

Finally, when did selling something for fair value become punishing the consumer?

Aren't we punishing the consumer more by giving him 3 hours a day of electricity at 4 cents and then another 21 a day at 30 cents+? Me, I'd rather pay 20 cents per kWh.

Anyway, with that, I should proly prepare to bounce. Cannot waste my entire day on nairaland, lol

ola olabiy:
Is the 'small' pie being applied at all. Is it being used for the statutory purposes?

Use judiciously the 'small' pie and let's see the outcome. Don't pilfer the 'small' one.

We have a small pie which 10% of is stolen. But even if the pie is perfectly shared, it is too small a pie; I'll still be hungry. Wouldn't you rather have a big pie in which even 15% is stolen?

lol, I knocked you out on the previous page. I'm being generous by even continuing this discussion.

@ola.olabiy: Well, right now, despite the I'm sure noble attempts of the FG, I am my own government. The electricity it wants to for some reason provide, it cannot do, so my dad has to buy an expensive gen/inverter setup and keep running that gen, paying $0.30+ per kWh for his power.

Why don't you want him to be able to buy it for $0.20 from some private party? Why does the government need to be involved, period?

The pie is too small. There aren't enough resources to allocate. Pie needs to be made bigger. That in a nutshell is my argument.

ola olabiy:
^^^Eku beaten to stupour

He wants to run away.

My brother, we can let the judges score the match. I don't think you will like the results

@ola.olabiy: My brother, you've been thoroughly trounced.

My post on the previous page pretty much did this to your argument:

[img width=250 height=250]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e5/SingletonBox-knockout.jpg/800px-SingletonBox-knockout.jpg[/img]

There is nothing really more to be said 

On a serious note though. Kogi and Enugu have lots of coal. If we privatize electricity and remove subsidies, it will revitalize those states too. That gas that is being flared in the ND would instead be captured and sold, rather than destroying the environment.

There is so much good that would come out of this. This is why I keep saying that whoever privatizes and deregulates power in this country will easily be the best President Nigeria has ever had.

Actually, rather than finding oil in the North, why don't we just shake down the people of the ND for more of their oil wealth?  

Oya, Beaf, give me your oil so I can fund my subsidized electricity needs! With enough subsidized electricity, we could dominate China even in manufacturing  

Lord Almighty. Should we do a quick calculation of the energy consumptions of Nigeria and see why subsidies are not reasonable?

OK, current production is what, 5,000ish MW?

24*365 = 8760 hours per year?


6 cent subsidy per kWh = $60 subsidy per MWH?

octave:15> (5000*24*365*60)/10**9
ans =  2.6280

So $2.6 billion in subsidies per year for 5K MW. Nigeria probably needs 50,000 or 100,000 MW. . .


If you think the slovenly and poor Nigerian FG can afford this, then. . .

You'd better hope that we find strike oil in the North and the amount of oil there turns out to be more than that in Saudi