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Fineguy11's Posts

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Foreign AffairsRe: Russia's Newest Fighter Jet Is 5th-generation 'in Name Only' by fineguy11(m): 4:22pm On Feb 26, 2016
ValerianSteel:
Are you implying that Stealth Jets are meaningless in Modern Warfare.That's cheap coming from you.

Are you also saying ADS are a replacement to fighter jets in the skies and thus countries should invest on ADS rather than on capable Stealth jets?

Last I checked,the S-400 doesn't fly sorties.Wake me up the day they doundecided
S-400 dont fly sorties coz they're designed to dectect and shoot down jets like the f-22 and the future f-35's.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia's Newest Fighter Jet Is 5th-generation 'in Name Only' by fineguy11(m): 9:45am On Feb 26, 2016
Why should any country pour in resources to produce ''STEALTH JETS" that can be detected and shot down?the 112million dollar F-117 nighthawk(bomber), shot down by a ''1962'' russian air defence system comes to mind!
Foreign AffairsRe: Propaganda Against Saudi Arabia by fineguy11(m): 9:37am On Feb 26, 2016
Propaganda against saudi arabia?even their ally the WEST know them for who they really are i.e THE NUMBER ONE SPONSORS OF GLOBAL JIHAD.,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/12035838/German-vice-chancellor-accuses-Saudi-Arabia-of-funding-Islamic-extremism-in-the-West.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/iraq-crisis-how-saudi-arabia-helped-isis-take-over-the-north-of-the-country-9602312.html

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/05/wikileaks-cables-saudi-terrorist-funding
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/03/swedens-feminist-foreign-minister-has-dared-to-tell-the-truth-about-saudi-arabia-what-happens-now-concerns-us-all/
SAUDI=ISIS,go to RAQQA the de-factor capital of ISIS and see how that place is being runed..all the books being used there to teach comes from saudi arabia.,so where does propaganda come into play?it wld be fooly for anyone to say there's a propaganda against saudi arabia...i am against Trump being president of the US,but when i see some ANGLO-ZOMBIST commentators like the one above me,i begin to understand why some americans wants this man.if the US has being serious abt fighting terrorism,countries like Saudi arabia shouldnt even be existing.#SueMeSaudi.
BusinessRe: Speculators Get Their Fingers Burnt, Naira Strengthens To N310/$ by fineguy11(m): 9:24am On Feb 24, 2016
plaetton:
You can't eat your cake and still have it.

First, let me repeat it for the hundredth time; the Naira has already been devalued by the market forces. That's why we are talking about it right now .

The on thing left is the for the government to acknowledge it by stoping the SUBSIDY called official rate. Their refusal to end this subsidy to banks, government agencies and select importers is penny wise, pounds foolish.
They are just delaying the inevitable.

Currency devaluation is a bitter pill we must swallow.

During the decades of sanctions, Iran's currency lost most of it's value against foreign currencies.

But it made them more self reliant in almost all areas of national life.

There are no miracle solutions to save the Naira.
We must focus on agriculture, infrastructural development, balance of trade with our trading partners, and, explore gold and solid minerals.

We should, as a matter of urgency, encourage rail links with our West African neighbors to facilitate trade.

Nigerian should take the lead in promoting crypto currencies like bitcoin for international transactions to help ease the demand for physical dollars.

Last , but not the least is that the CBN, as a matter if urgency, should once again allow Western Union and moneygram to pay out in dollars.

This would encourage Nigerians in the diaspora, who remit $23 billion yearly, to flood the economy with more dollars for both investments and support it would give to the Naira.

Paying out remittances at $200 while the Market is $375 is a GRAND THEFT that should not continue.
Trash.
BusinessRe: Speculators Get Their Fingers Burnt, Naira Strengthens To N310/$ by fineguy11(m): 9:21am On Feb 24, 2016
erico2k2:
What of the UK.vanuzila. Angola and China?
UK and CHINA are minor oil producers,,Angola and Venezuela are major oil exporters/ core opec members,and will support any move to curtail supply in the global oil market..
BusinessRe: Speculators Get Their Fingers Burnt, Naira Strengthens To N310/$ by fineguy11(m): 8:00am On Feb 24, 2016
RichYoungNigga:
Kid.
You were there when they agreed to cut oil supplies ??
How foolish are you ??

Iran just came back from sanction and they are in serious need of money, they want to be calling the shots in oil sales.

Go gets some education
exactly how much does iran tend to make by selling below $30?Iran's oli minister stated uncategorically,that his country will support ANY MOVE taken by both opec and non-opec players in a bid to increase/stabilize oil price.http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/16/russia-saudi-arabia-output-freeze-helps-oil-price-higher-in-asia.html..
And yes they'av agreed in principle.,OPEC's next general meeting is holding in MARCH with russia in attendance.the meeting will be centered around slashing supply or if possible,,re-introducing quota system among opec members with support from non-member states..
BusinessRe: Speculators Get Their Fingers Burnt, Naira Strengthens To N310/$ by fineguy11(m): 7:45am On Feb 24, 2016
RichYoungNigga:
Analysis from uneducated people.
So, because naira gained 60 naira, you have the courage to dance around ??

The oil sale is only source of Nigeria income, what happens when the top dogs like Saudi Arabia and Iran floods the market with excessive oil ?? and they also sells way cheaper.

This your jubilation will turn to sorrow soon.
Let's watch and see.
Next month, $1 will exchange for 500 naira.
f.ool..Saudi and iran and russia has agreed on the need for oil supply cuts,Oil price cant sink futher than it is presently..
Foreign AffairsRe: US Has Plan B Option If Syrian Transition Fails by fineguy11(m): 1:26am On Feb 24, 2016
How can u have a plan B when u dont have a plan A.
Foreign AffairsRe: Did Russia Just Threaten Turkey With Nuclear Weapons? by fineguy11(m): 4:56pm On Feb 23, 2016
ValerianSteel:
Dollop Head Liars(DHL's).
Congrats..u'av finally deciphered my message after two days of suffering from ACD(acute comprehension deformity).mazeltov!
PoliticsRe: We Never Congratulated David Mark – APC by fineguy11(m): 8:31am On Feb 22, 2016
Useless people...is it bad to congratulate the winner of an election even if its the opposition?
Foreign AffairsRe: Did Russia Just Threaten Turkey With Nuclear Weapons? by fineguy11(m): 8:22am On Feb 22, 2016
scully95:
'Most fighters in the Donbass are foreigners as well (Most of them are from Russia) '

are you ok ?
just to quickly correct you here. donbass or donetsk was russia for over 300 years until after it was broken by the west agenda.. this date back to kievian-rus.. the city of kiev is even older than Moscow front. The first front againt the intruders was kievian-rus before the Moskovskiu front...

where am i going to here.. ukraine is only 21/23 years and has violated the Budapest memorandum. i am sure you know nothing about this.. Well i wont go into much details..

but my point here is.. There is no difference between Donbass and Russians. They are the same thing and you can't even spot any difference between the two.. Even as we speak.. russian language is the widely speaking language in kiev.

The original Ukainians were nothing but the kossacks, also russians but long term fought against Russia to form its autonomous republics.. and Kossacks are mainly in Zaporozhy...Dnieper.. those were the original ukrainians before the same west agenda added and support many part of hungarians, polish and so added more nationalities that formed today's ukraine..

my pt here is kiev and Russia no matter what.. no matter the provocation by those western ukrainians. Russia will never go into war with Kiev. Except if attacked and u will only give Russia a reason to uninstall the Western puppet in kiev. Just as they did to Georgian western puppet president in 2008 and that president is now a governor in Odessa Ukraine..
u're just so Generous..u just gave free lectures to the Transgender without collecting peanut,all thanks to u,the Transgender is now enlightened!
Foreign AffairsRe: America Is Now Fighting A Proxy War With Itself In Syria by fineguy11(m): 8:00am On Feb 22, 2016
What exactly is US POLICY IN SYRIA?it seems the moderate rebels are as confused as their western partners..this is what happens when u classify terrorist as GOOD OR BAD TERRORIST.according to the US

Al nusra/isis/=Bad Terrorist

Jaish Al Islam/Islamic Front=Good Terrorist.
Foreign AffairsRe: Did Russia Just Threaten Turkey With Nuclear Weapons? by fineguy11(m):
OBAGADAFFI:
Russian troll talking about paygrade, if you really know what it means.

What happened to Russia when, Gaddafi and Mubarak were going down.

Can you tell me Russian adventures in Syria started?

I thought by now the Russians will be shooting down every Turk's around Syria, after the SU attack.

But It seems Putin is not taking any advice from you self-hyping NL trolls.
OMG,why are convulsing on this thread,is this the best u can come up with?Nikki can construct a better reply than this,she may have little problems in writting but she knows how to make her point,and most importantly,when she has none,she shuts up and learn..u should take a cue from Nikki.


NB:nikki is my 6 months old turkey.
Foreign AffairsRe: Did Russia Just Threaten Turkey With Nuclear Weapons? by fineguy11(m):
NairaMinted:
Sigh! You like to disregard someone's points sha and to twist things which in the end leaves a trail of a convoluted and incoherent point you are trying to make.

In that brilliant head of yours a motley crew of head chopping, liver eating, foreign backed and mostly foreign originated fanatics - who have refused to attend peace talks by the way- and who are fighting to unseat a legitimate government EQUATES to armed insurgents (backed by Russia or not) in Ukraine who are asking for constitutional reforms and greater autonomous recognition?? So much for logic! Lol!

Ok, I'll ask Putin to stop bombing these ISIS collaborating Turkmen and rather focus on Al-Nusra, ISIS, Jaish Al-Islam, Ahrar Al-Islam and the likes exclusively. There! Happy?

You are still in support of Putin's actions in Syria I hope?
Stop replying that TRANSGENDER.dont let (him/her) confuse u with (his/her)illogical infantile maradona analysis.
Foreign AffairsRe: Did Russia Just Threaten Turkey With Nuclear Weapons? by fineguy11(m): 7:19am On Feb 22, 2016
ValerianSteel:
Russia has been making threats against Turkey for two months now and hasn't actualized a single one.
OBAGADAFFI:
LOL,

Just look at what Russia has been reduced to in Syria.

I thought they were bragging at the US government.

Now the US has handed them over to the Turk's and Saudis.

This is exactly what the Arab League wanted.

I just pity that man called Bashar al-Assad.
pathetic bunch!
Foreign AffairsRe: Did Russia Just Threaten Turkey With Nuclear Weapons? by fineguy11(m): 8:51pm On Feb 21, 2016
Missy89:
If anyone believe in Russia's right of protecting her interest in her near abroad and supported what Putin did in Ukraine and is against Turkey doing the same in Syria then you are nothing but a Russian shill.

What is Good for the goose is good for the gander.
hahahaha...who is aginst turkey invading syria?all pro-russian commentators are hoping and praying that turkey invades syria and in the process strike russian assets in syria,and see how the turkish military will be decimated in a conventional war against russia..Russia is prepared for war,their military has being placed on high alert.Russia has also moved some fighter jets and bombers to the Amenian airbase just 40km from the Turkish border.Tell Madman erdogan to stop delaying the party and command his troops into syria..
Foreign AffairsRe: Where Can I Get A Dvd Documentaries On Wars by fineguy11(m): 8:23pm On Feb 21, 2016
Lumiere91:
where u dey bro?
im currently based in benin..
Foreign AffairsRe: Saudi Arabia Admits It Has NUCLEAR BOMBS; Will Test Within Weeks! by fineguy11(m): 4:37pm On Feb 21, 2016
Finally,a joke to laugh off this heat from my body..
Foreign AffairsRe: Where Can I Get A Dvd Documentaries On Wars by fineguy11(m): 4:34pm On Feb 21, 2016
Lumiere91:
let me hear ur price 1st
if only i were still@onitsha,i wld have transfered my war documentary collections to u for free...
Foreign AffairsRe: Where Can I Get A Dvd Documentaries On Wars by fineguy11(m): 4:31pm On Feb 21, 2016
If u have a PC ,downloading should be very easy...
Foreign AffairsRe: NATO Worried About Possible ''turkey-russia'' Hostilities. by fineguy11(op): 4:06pm On Feb 21, 2016
romme2u:
grin grin grin grin grin grin grin grin grin grin grin grin

mehn, i am enjoying myself here. u guys in this section are better than those mofos in politics whose only mandate is to spew hate and sectionalism.

PRO-NATO = APC

PRO-RUSSIA = PDP

meanwhile thumbs up to zoharariel for perfectly mirroring the death of Ahab with Erdogan. but wait a minute do u notice the common denominator among them.

AHAB teams up with JEHOSAPHAT to invade SYRIA --- 4000+ years but failed

ERDOGAN teams up with SALMAN to invade SYRIA again.

only time will tell whether they will succeed but from the look of things it seems that they failing and they refusing to cut short their losses as good investors would. But instead they are throwing all their resources into an investment that is already heading south with no hope in sight if it will make a u-turn.

Anyway Goodluck to them as a new world order may likely emerge
this is foreign politics section,lets keep APC AND PDP out of this section..
Foreign AffairsRe: NATO Worried About Possible ''turkey-russia'' Hostilities. by fineguy11(op):
Turkey has gone to NATO for protection guarantees in the event that they invade syria,and NATO's answer was an emphatic NO!
Foreign AffairsRe: NATO Worried About Possible ''turkey-russia'' Hostilities. by fineguy11(op): 8:30am On Feb 21, 2016
Zoharariel:
Erdogan Dies In Syria



And the Lord [Zoharariel Underscore Obatala] said, ‘Who will persuade Erdogan into attacking Syria so that he may die there?’

“One suggested this, and another that.

Finally, a spirit came forward, stood before the Lord [Zoharariel Underscore Obatala] and said, ‘I will entice him.’

“‘By what means?’ Zoharariel asked.

“‘I will go out and be a deceiving spirit in the mouths of all his Nairaland's Pentagon Propaganda Prophets,’ he said. grin

“‘You will succeed in enticing him,’ said [Zoharariel Underscore Obatala]. ‘Go and do it.’

But in the third year, Saud Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud [king of Saudi-Arabia] went down to see the President of Turkey.  

The President of Turkey [Erdogan] had said to his officials, “Don’t you know that Syria belongs to us and yet we are doing nothing to retake it from Bashar Al-Assad?”

So he asked Abdulaziz Al-Saud, “Will you go with me to fight against Syria?”

Abdulaziz Al-Saud replied to the President of Turkey, “I am as you are, my people as your people, my army as your army.” But Abdulaziz Al-Saud also said to the President of Turkey, “First seek the counsel of NATO.”

So the President of Turkey brought together the Propaganda Prophets [Missy89, Mazeltov, ValerianSteel, Obagadaffi, Vedaxcool, Lucasbalo] and asked them, “Shall I go to war against Syria, or shall I refrain?” grin

“Go,” they answered, “for NATO will give it into thine hand.”

But Abdulaziz Al-Saud asked, “Is there no longer a reliable & honest Nairaland Prophet with integrity like Appleyard, Cyprus000, Nairaminted, Scully95, Shymm3x, Capip120, Underground, Tkester & Seunny4lif here whom we can inquire of?”

The President of Turkey answered Abdulaziz Al-Saud, “There is still one prophet through whom we can inquire of the Lord, but I hate him because he never prophesies anything good about me, but always bad. His name is Fineguy11.”

“The President of Turkey should not say such a thing,” Abdulaziz Al-Saud, replied.

So the President of Turkey called one of his officials and said, “Bring Fineguy11 at once.”

Dressed in their royal robes, the President of Turkey and Abdulaziz Al-Saud king of Saudi-Arabia were sitting on their thrones at the threshing floor by the entrance of the Syrian Border, with all the pentagon propaganda prophets prophesying before them. grin 

Now, Missy89 had made iron horns and she declared, “This is what NATO says: ‘With these, you will gore the Russians until they are destroyed.’” grin

All the other prophets were prophesying the same thing. “Attack Syria and be victorious,” they said, “for America will give it into the Erdogan’s hand.”

The messenger who had gone to summon Fineguy11 said to him, “Look, the other pentagon propaganda prophets without exception are predicting success for Erdogan. Let your word agree with theirs, and speak favorably.” grin

But Fineguy11 said, “As surely as the Lord lives, I can tell him only what the Lord tells me.”

When he arrived, Erdogan asked him, “Fineguy11, shall we go to war against Syria, or not?”

“Attack and be victorious,” he answered jokingly, “for America will give it into thine hand.”

The king said to him, “How many times must I make you swear to tell me nothing but the truth in the name of the Lord?”

Then Fineguy11 answered, “I saw all Turkey nuked & obliterated by the Russian Topol-M’”

The President of Turkey then said to Abdulaziz Al-Saud, “Didn’t I tell you that he never prophesies anything good about me, but only bad?” grin
i just laughed out my intestines..creative and funny..
Foreign AffairsRe: Breaking: US Election 2016: Hillary Clinton Wins Nevada Caucuses by fineguy11(m): 8:25am On Feb 21, 2016
Why are u guys disturbing yourself about an eletion that has been won and lost?..i have stated this several times on this forum,,America's next president has been decided.The powers behind the scene has picked HILARY.whether she has popular support or not,she'll be president come november...while TRUMP will be the president of PLAYBOY magazine..
Foreign AffairsRe: Will There Be Wwlll Or Not ? ( Must Read) by fineguy11(m): 8:11am On Feb 21, 2016
jnhmaxxwell:
Comment by Larchmonter445


To all who predict the inevitable war, wherever your mind thinks it will transpire:
It is a requirement of that prediction to tell us what the Order of Battle shall be.
For instance, China attacked by the US.
Or, Turkey and US/NATO/Arabs with oil attacking Russia.
Or, Turkey and the nazis of Ukraine attacking Russia.
Or, some Israeli (Zio-whatever you want) false flag attack that results in attacking Russia.
Please tell us how the war gets going with planes? with missiles? with sub? with carriers and destroyers?




And lay out the first 5-10 hours, then day one in full, and then the next day.
And tell us, dear friends of the next inevitable war, how many men, how many planes, how many ships are involved on the attacking West’s side.
See, that inevitable stuff is nonsense in the nuclear age.
The kind of war we are seeing now in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen and earlier in Ukraine and what we saw in Iraq, Kuwait and Afghanistan are very deadly to be sure. But they are small conflicts.
They have wide impact on civilians mostly. Somehow the armies rarely clash in large formations.
At most, only Ukraine has given us enormous impact because the Ukies are especially ignorant and horribly led. Yemen is a bloodbath, but it is amongst minor players.

But what you predictors of inevitable Russia attacked by the West in any form say is a fiction.
And attacking China is even more so.
One, you do not understand military doctrine. And the most important national military doctrine is Russia’s. It openly states that they will use nuclear weapons in many situations. They have a clear fast path of first use.
The West does not intend to state its first strike use, but it would strike first in full fashion if it could.
It does not because it does not want to be totally destroyed.

Russia does not much care if it gets hit by nukes under the situation of saving its troops from destruction or warding off a massive ground attack, or suffering some attempt at EMP attack or even Cyber or Space (by laser or hypersonic weapons).
What this business of nuclear is really doing is down-scaling the ‘war” between giants. There simply cannot be a war, a grand war anywhere, by proxy or by principals. The big wars are over.

No nation is going to stand still today and watch 300 ships form off its coast ready to send 4000 cruise missiles into its ports, airports, urban centers and industrial sites, and all it military installations and defenses.
No nation will be able to assemble the armor and vehicles of 90,000 men anywhere near a major nation and threaten an invasion.
No nation can send 100 or 1000 or 10,000 sorties of bombers or cruise missiles or IRBMs or ICBMs into another nation without suffering total annihilation in return.

So, there won’t be WW3.
There will be many more Syrias if Russia does not prevail. And more Ukraines if Russia does not prevail. There will be some more Yemens, probably.
But there won’t be WW3. You simply must understand the Order of Battle to form such a war is impossible today. No large nation (or tiny one like Israel with 350 nukes) will stand by and take that sort of preparation and first strike hit. The threatened nation will use their nukes to destroy the formation.

Thus, Saudi Arabia’s invasion threat and Turkey’s invasion threat are by necessity small threats.
Russia and Syria and Iraq can handle these.
The only dominant force the US has left is its naval power. And no nation is threatening it on the seas. So they can’t win anywhere. No one to fight on the oceans.

Where and how they want to fight is blocked. They want to fight the Russians and the Chinese with planes, drones and missiles. But they can’t. The S400 and S300 and next year the S500 will stop them. And if they somehow broke through in a few places, they would be nuked by missiles Russia and China have that they can’t find, can’t see and can’t stop.

The US has to get relatively close with its cruise missiles to fire them effectively. China and Russia can hit the US ships and subs from 3x the distance.
There simply is not a feasible Order of Battle for victory.

There is not going to be a WW3.
There might be a deadly clash. Jets shot down. Troops and defenses blasted.
But it won’t accelerate too widely. Even if a few hundred died, the reaction would be scaled to the region where the clash occurred. It would be over before the whole thing was reported. An hour.
And the window of war is closing. Americans are rising up. They want no more, except with Terrorists. - See more at: http://nigeriaproperty-real..com/2016/02/who-needs-war-with-peace-like-this.html#sthash.hV46eeiP.dpuf
your analysis wld have been perfect if all men were rational.
Foreign AffairsRe: Did Russia Just Threaten Turkey With Nuclear Weapons? by fineguy11(m): 5:43pm On Feb 20, 2016
mazeltov:
One of the most intellectually ignorant cum dumb and illogical human behaviours I see on internet is to see some midgets is to automatically resort to claiming victory for Russia or America. War vs. anything Russia or China will never be won or determined by anything conventional. What "nukes" during Cold War era is mutual destruction while some military industrial complex in the war always want us to believe that some war can be war with conventional weapons. I can't go further than this.
i agree with u to a large extent,becasue your reasoning and perceived consequence on the use of nukes is from a RATIONAL VIEWPOINT.but u need to know one thing,,if all men were as rational as u wld want them to be,earth wont have experienced two world wars..as i type this,there are men who are schemming 24hours a day on how to stage and win a nuclear war...as long as man exist,the unimaginable can happen..
Foreign AffairsRe: Did Russia Just Threaten Turkey With Nuclear Weapons? by fineguy11(m): 11:17am On Feb 20, 2016
NairaMinted:
And as deadly as the Grads are, they are even smaller compared to the Uragans or Smerchs
Turkey as a whole isnt worthy of a "SINGLE RUSSIAN BULLET".MADMAN ERDOGAN has already put plans in place to destroy his country,all russia needs to do is to guide him tactifully on achieving his goals.. After the su-24 shooting,i stated emphatically that one of PUTIN response wld be to ARM THE KURDS with intellegence/armaments which is exactly what russia has done..currently the syrian-kurds backed by RUSSIAN airstrikes,are currently staging an OFFENSIVE to take control of the TURKISH-SYRIAN border,an action that has provoked Ankara into firing and striking kurdish positions from turkey into syria..it seems Russia has promised the kurds that they will back a proposal to create an autonomous kurdish region in the syria-turkey border, an outcome that wld put an end to MADMAN erdogan geo-political ambition in the middle east into a permanent coma..i also predicted late last year,that in a few yrs time,TURKEY wld be embroiled in a deadly civil-war that wld be sparked by armed confrontation between the turkish military vs virtually all the kurds in the middle-east..as for turkish blab about sending troops to syria...........a ''poorly'' acted stunt to scare russia..even if this s.hit escalates futher,i dont see it spreading beyond syria which is what NATO is praying for,so they wont be forced into making a choice between supporting turkey or not..
Foreign AffairsNATO Worried About Possible ''turkey-russia'' Hostilities. by fineguy11(op): 10:45am On Feb 20, 2016
The danger of a war between Turkey and Russia is on the rise. Officials in Berlin are worried that the situation could become an uncomfortable test case for NATO while Moscow seems intent on sowing divisions within the alliance.

...

It was a year deep in the Cold War, a time when the world was closer to nuclear war than ever. There were myriad provocations, red lines were violated, airspace was infringed upon and a plane was shot down.



The situation was such that an accidentally fired missile or a submarine captain losing his cool would have been enough to trigger World War III. It was 1962, the year of the Cuban Missile Crisis -- an incident the current Russian prime minister finds himself reminded of today. At the Munich Security Conference last weekend, Dimitri Medvedev invoked the danger of a new Cold War. "Sometimes I think, are we in 2016 or 1962?"

Officials in Berlin have likewise been struck recently by a strange sense of déjà vu. The mood is similar to how it was at the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, a time when everyone was reading the new book from historian Christopher Clark, "The Sleepwalkers," about how Europe stumbled into World War I.

Syria is the Cuba of 2016 and the risk of an international confrontation there is growing by the day. For five years now, the country has been engaged in a brutal civil war, but the conflict could now develop into a larger clash between Russia and the West. Moscow and NATO member state Turkey are squaring off in the Syrian conflict, and the potential consequences for the trans-Atlantic alliance are impossible to predict.

Officials in Angela Merkel's Chancellery in Berlin are concerned about how close NATO has already come to a conflict with Russia. Indeed, Syria could become a vital test case for the military alliance. But the situation is complex: In order to thwart Putin, NATO must make it clear that it stands behind its member states in their moment of need. Yet NATO also wants to avoid a military conflict with Russia at all costs.

Officials at NATO headquarters in Brussels view the situation between Ankara and Moscow as being extremely volatile. "The armed forces of the two states are both active in fierce fighting on the Turkish-Syrian border, in some cases just a few kilometers from each other," one NATO official says.

Intensifying Conflict

Since Russia became a party to the war in Syria at the end of September, there has been a significant risk of open confrontation between Moscow and Ankara. Russia has thrown its support behind the troops loyal to Syria's unscrupulous dictator Bashar Assad while Turkey is supporting the rebels who would like to topple his autocracy.

The conflict intensified at the end of November when Turkey shot down a Russian warplane and now Putin has forged an alliance with the Syrian Kurds, Erdogan's archenemies. The Turkish president holds the Syrian Kurds responsible for the attack on Wednesday in the Turkish capital, which saw an explosion in central Ankara kill 28 and wound 61. Syrian Kurds have denied responsibility, but the bombing has ratcheted up tensions between Ankara and Moscow even further.

The NATO alliance is not always united, but in this case, nobody is interested in an escalation. How, though, can it be prevented? Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan both have few scruples when it comes to wielding power and the two have previously demonstrated that they are more than willing to use force against their own people in an emergency. Both have likewise experienced the frustration of failed rapprochement with the West. How rational are they? How far might they go?

Turkey too has done its part in recent weeks to ratchet up the escalation. Turkish troops are now firing artillery across the border at Kurds in Syria and Ankara has also been thinking out loud about possibly sending ground troops into Syria to take on the Kurds.

That would be a nightmare for the West: Direct fighting between the Kurds and the Turks could mean that Russian troops would be soon to follow. What, though, would happen were a NATO member state to fire at Russian soldiers? Officials in the Chancellery hope that the alliance wouldn't be directly called on to get involved, as long as the fighting was limited to Syrian territory.

But German Chancellor Merkel is concerned that Putin is doing what he can to provoke Turkey as a way to test NATO. Which is why the German chancellor wants to do all she can to prevent Ankara from realizing its threat to send ground troops into Turkey. "That would likely be tantamount to doing Russia a favor," says one Chancellery official.

Putin's 'Hybrid War'

Putin's aim, the official says, is that of driving a wedge into NATO and destabilizing the alliance. A military federation that openly debates whether or not to support one of its members would quickly lose its credibility -- and that would be a significant triumph for Putin, the official says.

Russia has shown no signs of letting up, either. At the end of January, Turkey reported that a Russian jet had once again violated its airspace. It's a pattern that NATO is familiar with from the Baltic countries, where Russia likewise engaged in a series of pinprick provocations. In Berlin, officials have begun talking of "Putin's hybrid waragainst Turkey."

One element in that conflict is the economic sanctions that Putin slapped on Ankara after the Russian jet was shot down. That is also when he began supporting the Kurds. "That is Turkey's Achilles heel," says Moscow military analyst Vladislav Shurygin. "By helping the Kurds, we unsettle Turkey to such a degree that it can think of nothing else."

The confrontation is also taking place against the backdrop of a personal feud between Putin and Erdogan. The two used to be friendly with one another, but sources in Moscow say that Putin felt deeply and personally betrayed by Erdogan following the shooting down of the Russian plane. Erdogan sought several times to personally apologize to Putin, but that wasn't enough for the Russian president. He wants Erdogan to make a public display of contrition.

In an effort to prevent further escalation, NATO has made it exceedingly clear to the Turkish government that it cannot count on alliance support should the conflict with Russia head up as a result of a Turkish attack. "NATO cannot allow itself to be pulled into a military escalation with Russia as a result of the recent tensions between Russia and Turkey," says Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn.

Should Turkey be responsible for escalation, say officials in both Berlin and Brussels, Ankara would not be able to invoke the NATO treaty. Article 4 of the alliance's founding treaty grants member states the right to demand consultations "whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened." Turkey has already invoked this article once in the Syrian conflict. The result was the stationing of German Patriot missiles on the Syrian border in eastern Turkey.


NATO Gets Nervous

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The decisive article, however, is Article 5, which guarantees that an "armed attack against one or more of (the alliance members) in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all." But Luxembourg's Foreign Minister Asselborn notes that "the guarantee is only valid when a member state is clearly attacked."

Ankara was already rebuked following the shooting down of the Russian warplane, with NATO diplomats speaking of a Turkish overreaction. "We have to avoid that situations, incidents, accidents spiral out of control," warned NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg.

Berlin agrees. "We are not going to pay the price for a war started by the Turks," says a German diplomat. Because decisions taken by the North Atlantic Council, NATO's primary decision-making body, must always be unanimous, it is enough for a single country to exercise its veto rights, the official says. But, the official adds, it won't get that far: there is widespread agreement with the US and most other allies that Turkey would get the cold shoulder in such a case.

Nevertheless, NATO alliance members are monitoring the Turkish-Russian confrontation with concern. There is, after all, always the risk that Russia at some point might attack Turkish positions on Turkish soil. "Were the Russians to carry out a retaliatory strike against Turkey, we would have a problem," says a NATO official. In such a case, Turkey could very well invoke Article 5. Were the North Atlantic Council to fail to achieve unanimity, Putin would once again have split the West, the official says.

Either way, the 28-member alliance is not of a single mind when it comes to Russia. The question as to how one should approach Putin's aggression is a matter of significant debate. Moscow's intervention in Syria has simply intensified that discussion.

On one side are those countries that once suffered under Russian hegemony: Poland, the Czech Republic and the three Baltic countries. They are in favor of a tough line against Moscow and have been building up their militaries on NATO's eastern border with the help of the US as a deterrent to Putin.

A second group is more pro-Russian, primarily out of individual -- mostly economic -- interests. That group includes Bulgaria and Romania, but also Slovakia and Hungary. On Wednesday, for example, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán demanded an end to European sanctions against Russia. The Greek government, under the leadership of Alexis Tsipras, also leans pro-Russia.

Refraining from Provoking Putin

And then there is the special case of Paris. France is openly flirting with Moscow, with French Prime Minister Manuel Valls demonstratively praising cooperation with Russia at the Munich Security Conference. "We welcome France's constructive role," said Russian Prime Minister Medvedev, returning the praise.

Germany leads the group of moderate critics of Russia, but it is a group to which most other Western European countries belong. They are critical of Russia's geopolitical ambitions but are also wary of breaking off contact to Moscow. Berlin's role here is key. The German government sharply criticized Putin's actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, but has also urged that Russian concerns be taken seriously and has refrained from provoking Putin.

The dispute between the hawks and the doves within NATO primarily focuses on the arms build-up on NATO's eastern border. At the beginning of February, the Pentagon announced that it would request €3.4 billion ($3.8 billion) for an expanded presence in Eastern Europe. The Americans plan to station equipment for an entire tank division in the region, including battle tanks, artillery and other heavy weaponry. In an emergency, a unit of 20,000 combat-ready troops from the US could quickly be deployed. In addition, a brigade is to be stationed in NATO's east, rotating between bases.

Not coincidentally, Poland is planning a large maneuver together with the US ahead of the next NATO summit, to be held in Warsaw in July. The joint military exercise, named Anaconda, will involve 25,000 troops and 19 additional alliance members, but it is not an official NATO exercise. The Americans have pledged 90 tanks for the maneuver, which is to simulate a land invasion of Poland -- a classic Article 5 scenario.

Germany isn't particularly taken with such posturing. In the coming months, Berlin intends to do what it can to prevent the stationing of additional NATO troops or materiel in the alliance's eastern member states. The German military is not prepared to send additional troops to the Baltic countries or to Poland.

For Berlin, it is important to avoid calling into question the 1997 Founding Act on Mutual Relations between Russia and NATO. According to that agreement, "additional permanent stationing of substantial combat forces" in the former Eastern Bloc is to be avoided. It is exactly this agreement, though, that new Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski declared to be "invalid" at the Munich Security Conference. The security situation, he argued, has fundamentally changed and Russia terminated the agreement on its own by virtue of its actions in Crimea.

'Masterful Tradecraft'

Moscow, for its part, reacted immediately to the US armaments plans. Andrey Kelin, the Russian Foreign Ministry official responsible for pan-European cooperation, announced that Russia would respond by stationing three new divisions, a tank army and 50 strategic, nuclear-compatible bombers on Russia's western border. Moscow, he said, would also equip its Caspian and Black Sea fleets with cruise missiles of the kind Russia launched into Syria from a distance of over 1,000 kilometers on Putin's birthday.

From the perspective of power politics, officials in Berlin and elsewhere are willing to concede, Putin's intervention in Syria has thus far been a great success. "It is masterful tradecraft," a close Merkel advisor says admiringly. Russia, he says, not only stabilized the regime of its ally Assad, but has also done everything in its power to make the situation more difficult for the West.

Chancellery officials believe that Putin is deliberately trying to trigger a new wave of refugees to further divide Europe. Furthermore, they believe that Putin would welcome a further evaporation of support for Merkel among the German electorate.

The chancellor has promised to solve the refugee crisis together with Turkey. The country is to ensure that refugees can no longer stream into Greece across the Aegean. But the more people escape the violence of Syria into Turkey, the less inclined Ankara is to tighten up its western border to Greece. Erdogan already has enough problems. Why should he expend even more effort to help Merkel?

The chancellor is doing her best to entice the Turkish government with pledges of money and an easing of visa requirements. But she now finds herself in the dilemma of being unable to offer Turkey assistance in its conflict with Russia even as she needs Ankara's help. Knowing both Putin and Erdogan as she does, she is aware that neither is exactly a model of equanimity. She is extremely wary of encouraging Erdogan in any way to start something with Russia.

Using NATO to Pressure Turkey

That's what makes the situation so complicated. Thus far, when addressing the need to tighten the maritime border in the Aegean, Turkey has talked a lot but done little. Which is why Merkel brought in NATO to patrol the border between Turkey and Greece. Officially, the alliance has been charged with providing surveillance and combatting migrant smugglers. In reality, though, the presence of the Standing NATO Maritime Group 2 is to increase pressure on Turkey by making it impossible for government officials to continue claiming they don't know where on the coast the refugee boats were launching from.

With the German shipBonnleading the way, the NATO fleet is to determine the starting points of refugee boats and the routes they take. The data will then be used to force the Turks to block off the launch points, say NATO officials. Ideally, the ships are to have real-time contact with Turkish coast guard vessels.

Moscow has realized just how touchy the game is that Merkel is playing. The German chancellor's refugee policies have made her dependent on Erdogan, a man who has not traditionally been particularly concerned about human rights. Not that Putin himself much cares about human rights either. But the Kremlin is happy to take advantage of the situation for a small propaganda victory.

"Apparently, Merkel has suffered from a short-circuit in her brain," wrote the pro-government tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravdaa few days ago. "A lamb is flirting with the jackal. One would like to ask Merkel: Do you share Erdogan's values? Are you happy about all of the journalists sitting in prison?"
#copied
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia Warns World Is Fighting A New Cold War by fineguy11(m): 4:27pm On Feb 17, 2016
ValerianSteel:
The truth only reeks of bias because you refuse to accept it as fact.
Nonsence!!''Screeming russian aggression everday doesnt make the west right or wrong,it only depicts them as WEAK against the bear''!
Foreign AffairsRe: U.S. Vs. Russia Meme Thread by fineguy11(m):
so hilarious

Foreign AffairsRe: Russia’s Secret Weapon: Undercover Chechens Inside Daesh Guide Aerospace Forces by fineguy11(m): 12:02am On Feb 16, 2016
NairaMinted:
Razman Kadyrov's alliance with Putin and Chechnya's allegiance to Russia in the bigger scope of things is an invaluable asset.

Appleyard, cyprus000, zoharariel, scully95, fineguy11

Russia’s secret weapon: undercover Chechens inside Daesh guide AeroSpace Forces strikes (MUST SEE!)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtFc175UT4E
''destroying them from within'',a grand strategy i must say'.
Foreign AffairsRe: Russia Warns World Is Fighting A New Cold War by fineguy11(m): 7:42pm On Feb 15, 2016
ValerianSteel:
Russia's presence in Syria has always been a militarized one.Syria gave Russia access to it's territory allowing it have a naval base,in return Russia equips Syria with meagre weapons that has not succeeded in keeping Syrian airspace safe.Israel carried out Operation Orchard and Moscow's weapon and manpower could not do sh*t to Israeli fighters.

Russia's permanent strategic interest in Syria has only been to protect it's military aggression against the West.If Russia were Syria's big brother I don't think today,Syria would instead call on Russia to help fight her battles,rather we'd see a Syria equipped with weapons supplied by Russia to take out it's enemies.

SIPRI states that Russia's military exports to Syria is about $465million while Moscow Times claim its $4billion-a freaking lie that is so glaring.If Syria did purchase weapons worth $4billion from Russia why then did the Assad regime fail woefully to defend itself.Russia's relationship with Syria after the Soviet era is loopsided,at least in the Soviet era,Russia was gracious cancelling billions of Syrian debt.Post Soviet era not much as a loan or economic aid package to Syria,not a single donation of military equipment to the Syrian Armed Forces.If Russia has always been there to defend Syria,Syria would never had fallen to ISIS or moderate rebels and opposition forces in the first place.

Face it,Russia's interest in Syria has never been in the protection of Syria but a facade to keep her presence.

It's an insult to compare Israeli-American co-operation with Russia and Syria,a big insult.

The US sees Israel as a strategic ally whose territorial defense comes first under their relationship.Israel receives yearly military aid package from the US,Obama has revealed the US would be increasing the amount from $3billion to $40billion between now and 2018 in response to Iran's access to money following the lifting of sanctions.

A very formidable unchallenged Israeli Defense Force would grow to become stronger than all other Middle-East countries and will be readily equipped to counter new threats from Iran and elsewhere.

US relationship with Israel sees to it that Israel remains a self-sufficient nation that can defend itself against threats.US has a joint military partnership with Israel covering development of several programmes from missile technology to drone technology,avionics and sub systems and software,something Russia has never had with Syria.With America's support for Israel and Israel's skillfulness,Israel has become a force to be reckoned with in the Middle-East and it would take nukes to bring Tel-Aviv down before it bows to terrorists as compared to Syria.
i mavel@the seriousness with which someone can type this false, loopsided,junk piece about russian-syria patnership..u cracked me up with this though,[''Russia's permanent strategic interest in Syria has only been to protect it's military aggression against the West''].this statements sums up your bias and pettiness regarding the russian state..there's no point arguing with u..

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