₦airaland Forum

delvzy:
TRUMP; Like him or hate him but the fact remains that the current state of servicing debt in America is currently unsustainable. Forget the hullabaloo that some of these MSMs are painting and ask yourself this, “What other approach would force the world to the negotiation table than this?”

I try as much as possible to watch the intent here rather than the tantrums being thrown by some world leaders back and forth.

Sometimes what appears to be a stupid idea is worth more than nothing at all.
The World Economy can't continue to kick the cans down the road.

We wait and see. No matter what the world does, the major players in this game are China and the EU. If they don’t bow and instead decide to retaliate, then it may not go as planned for Trump.

NothingDoMe:
We are going around in circles. Now we are back to the Naira value again without considering the value of each profit based on the USD to Naira in 2023 and 2024. 😆

It's like a merry go round. lol.

The point is that Total did not lose in dollars.

NothingDoMe:
So how does apply to the topic: "Totalenergies Reports 140.35% Surge In Profit As Revenue Surpasses ₦‎1 Trillion"?

Where does the 140.35% come in between $26.9m and $28.13m?

140.35% in naira from 17 Billion naira to 42 Billion naira. My argument is against those saying they didn’t make profit in dollars. I am saying that’s wrong, they still made a little profit in dollars.

NothingDoMe:
Someone will look at this and say hey he has a point but will forget that you didn't use the actual income in your calculation. This is how people lose money to scammers.

So, let's apply your Naira value to actual figures:

N635.9b/N650 = $978m in 2023
N1.04T/N1500 = $693m in 2024

Your own calculation is even worse than mine as it puts the loss at $285m.

I’m looking at their profit which is what matters most to them not their revenue. Use their profits in 2023 and 2024 to do thesame calculation.

17.5b/N650 = $26.9 million
42.2b/N1500 = $28.13 million

NothingDoMe:
IOCS take their money back to their country of origin. They don't send Naira back home. 🤣🤣🤣.

You can as well show us your calculation of how they made profit in USD. That's the currency that matters to them.

They made 140% profit. Average naira value to the dollar in 2023 was 650 naira. Average naira value to the $ in 2024 was 1500 naira. That’s 130% depreciation.
Therefore, 140% profit beats devaluation.

Agbegbaorogboye:
How
Didn't you see a $70m loss

The oil market is dollar denominated

They made over 140% profit before tax right? Devaluation was 130%.

Dougad:
The Naira lost 233% of its value over the past years. An increase in revenue by 140% only shows that they didn't even make as much as they did last year.

No, the naira moved from an average of 650 in 2023 to 1500 in 2024. That’s 130% depreciation not 233%.

NothingDoMe:
The value of dollar to Naira at December 2023 was N850. So their income was roughly $750m in 2023.

Now, Dollar to Naira closed at N1700 at the end of 2024 but I'm going to use N1500 just to be nice.

This brings their 2024 income to $680m representing a $70m loss from the previous year of 2023.

What matters is their profit which beat the dollar devaluation no matter how you calculate it

Penguin2:
Change that money to dollars and you will see they are probably doing worse than they did in 2015.

Meanwhile the increase is driven by Nigerians’ blood who now have to pay more than double for the energy products that Total is selling

Any company with a profit above 120% in 2024 would still do better in dollar terms over 2023. Do the calculation yourself.

chimex38:
May be true..
But at least our own dangote's export go hear am.

I heard refined products are not affected by the tariffs so Dangote refinery would do fine.

Raider76:
Talking about Dangote. How will the changes at NNPC affect local refining? It is being said that some of the key people coming in are from Renaissance Group. I believe Aradel is in the group, and it is said that they have a refinery
Will they help local refining against imports?

Dangote’s deal leans more on the FG committee and NMPDRA than NNPC. In the end, NNPC would only do what the regulator NMPDRA tells them to do.

Austin Avuru cofounder of Seplat also appointed. I love this.

pluto09:
So, it was actually true that our net foreign exchange reserve was about $3.9b at the end of 2023.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2025/04/cbn-reports-23bn-net-foreign-exchange-reserves-strongest-in-over-three-years/

Reduced from around $14 Billion in 2021 to around $8 Billion in 2022 and then $3.99 Billion in 2023. Remember we also had foreign debts to service which increased to an average of $400 million monthly in 2023/2024.
All of these explains why Q1 2024 was a crazy quarter for the CBN.

RodgersAkpafu:
Another stupid policy from an idiotic leadership
When the banks bore the brunt of their recklessness, did the FG give them tax rebates ?

Now they have made money because they were smart enough to hedge, using but not limited to Derivative instruments
Now you want 50% of it

When they call them animals and dummies now, people will complain

Manufacturing sector that have borne a lot of pain due to the FG, what tax rebate were they given ?

Sheethole

Banks are really trying if you also consider the 50% CRR.

Dum20:
You have a very valid point.

But you know at the end of the day, after school, you will not be carrying textbooks around. if you need any information you either google it or check AI.

So i guess AI will replace textbooks as you get what you are looking for faster

If they don’t develop the capacity to focus on details and use textbooks for rigorous research now, there is the danger of them not becoming thorough enough in the work place and may have short attention span.

popizaino:
I don't know about east African bloc,but i can tell you for free that movements of goods is not easy across west africa countries. Benin Republic is an impediment to what should have been smooth movements of goods across the sub region. I am even planning of writing to the Nigerian embassy in Benin Republic of how much of stress we undergo to just transit goods through Benin 🇧🇯. How could you require duty for transit goods?

I heard Liberia - Ivory Coast border is worse. Infact most of the borders. They demand lots of bribes especially the Francophone countries.

African countries which have companies with revenues above $1 Billion .

Nigeria punching way below her weight. Kudos to Morocco and South Africa.

AskiaHarem:
It’s wild how there’s a Balkan esc war going on in the middle of Africa and The East African Community is essentially warring between it’s members. How is little o’l Rwanda causing such a ruckus right smack dab in the center of the neighborhood committee so causally and unchallenged? Not to mention the possibility of another South Sudan civil war breaking out.

I remember only a few years ago when this was speculated to happen in the ECOWAS neighborhood because of the junta alliance which has moderately calmed down the past year.

The EAC never should have expanded.

Thoughts?

People accuse ECOWAS of many things especially of being puppets to the likes of France but I would say despite the French influence, ECOWAS is the most active African regional bloc.

zendi:
20 Japanese refineries import all their crude oil in the petro-currency, dollars.
Japan has no crude oil.
But they sell refined products to the domestic market in the local currency. They must also be exporting, but I assume that all operations are done at profit to the refineries..

Nigeria's private refineries should pay for every drop of our crude oil in the petro currency, dollars.
To do otherwise would deplete our external reserves and subsidize the export trade of private entities.
It will also be subsidizing, unfortunately, both land and sea smuggling of cheap refined products out of the country.

Nigerian refineries will operate even more profitably than their Japanese counterparts because "importing" crude oil from home will eliminate freight (shipping) and Maritime insurance costs from the landing cost, than would be the case if importing crude from abroad.
The same advantage for Petroleum marketers, than if importing products from abroad.

Summary, private refineries should procure crude oil from wherever found, or pay for our own at the international price and currency, then sell products to domestic offtakers at whatever conversion rate that makes them profit, but not in foreign currency.

Competition should checkmate monopoly and excessive price hiking.

I'm just an ordinary citizen observing the Oligarch and the Cabal at each other's throats for control of the nation's petroleum fortunes.

Finally, someone seeing things the way I’ve been seeing them on this matter.
Except the Government intends to use the crude for naira deal to subsidize petrol slightly.

Raider76:
Alhaji has really gone global. The import cabals and NNPC will be unhappy to read stories like this:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-jet-fuel-imports-surge-nigerias-dangote-refinery-pushes-barrels-west-2025-03-24/

Nice. More dollars for Alhaji.

Trump again 😆

“The recent U.S. sanctions targeting Iran's oil industry have contributed to a notable increase in Brent crude oil prices. On March 20, 2025, the United States imposed sanctions on individuals and entities involved in purchasing and processing Iranian crude oil, including the Chinese refinery Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd.
Reuters

In response, Brent crude futures rose by over $1, reflecting market concerns about potential disruptions in oil supply due to heightened geopolitical tensions.

This development underscores the sensitivity of global oil markets to geopolitical events, particularly those affecting major oil-producing nations like Iran. Traders and analysts will likely monitor the situation closely, as further escalations could lead to additional volatility in oil prices”

Zegra:
Trust me ,all these back and forth na because them no allow ALH to game the system.
typically when you import something with dollar ,you sell it to the local market in naira and still make your profit.
Chinedu import computer in dollars ,will you now say chinedu should sell his computers to local users in dollar ?
Baba is doing all these because he's becoming too big for the goverment to manage and that along na risk to the country.

This doesn’t correlate with Dangote though. Dangote is a producer and his raw material is in dollars. The marketers who buy in dollars are the ones who fits perfectly to your analogy. Those marketers cannot sell to retailers in dollars but naira.

ositadima1:
Ok, lets watch and see, I don't like arguing unnecessarily these days, when the issues starting coming up I will quote you again. It wont be long.

The FG may resume the crude for naira deal though. I’m not against it, I’m thinking broadly from all angles.

ositadima1:
That is not entirely correct. Avoid using the word "we." Dangote Refinery produces many byproducts. If I am correct, it is situated in a free zone, meaning Nigeria will not benefit significantly from taxation. Taxation itself is a sensitive topic, as one could argue that much of it is mismanaged or embezzled.

The primary benefit is the use of naira for both crude oil and refined products, reducing dependence on foreign exchange and driving prices down. But the situation has changed—you (Marketers) now need to source dollars as before. And where do these dollars come from? Your guess is as good as mine—Nigeria’s foreign reserves.

Most of the foreign exchange revenue generated by Dangote will likely go toward cost recovery in the next few years. I also heard that Dangote plans to list on the London Stock Exchange, which means more forex will flow out in the long run. It makes no sense that a resource available in abundance locally is still being sold in foreign currency.

That it’s situated in a free trade zone doesn’t stop the FX from coming to Nigeria, does it? If not, what would be the purpose of a free trade zone if not to export and get FX? Also, if it sells more than 25% of its products to Nigeria it would be taxed based on the new tax reforms.

I have told you that Dangote himself at a point would need adequate foreign exchange to run the business, wouldn’t he then be converting all those naira back to dollars and then put pressure on the FX as well? Why don’t you also look at that angle?

If marketers put pressure on FX and then give the FX to Dangote who would then use it to buy crude from Nigeria, wouldn’t that be almost equilibrium?

Dangote would list on both the Nigerian and London stock exchanges like Seplat and Airtel.

The real advantage of Dangote refinery is not because they would sell fuel and diesel in naira (except the Government decides to subsidize with Dangote by subsidizing crude in order for us to get cheaper fuel).

The real advantage of Dangote refinery is that we are now producers of so many by products used for various manufacturing which can be sold in naira and that we would also become major exporters of refined products in Africa.

KarlTom:
This is where the issues lie

1. The crude-for-naira deal is "NNPC supplies DR in ₦, and DR supplies the Nigerian market in ₦". This will eliminate any and every FX requirement for servicing Nigerian market.

2. DR gets a sizable stock from foreign markets so I don't think he is illiquid in FX.

3. I choose to read between the lines and I make bold to say that all this is the working of the 'cabal' and those hellbent on taking us back to pre-PIA era.

4. Finally, we should ask ourselves how the importers get their FX since they sell their stock to Nigerians in ₦.

I struggle to see the difference here. Official reports I’ve seen puts Dangote’s current supply at around 400k bpd as at January 2025 (although Edwin now claims it is at 500k bpd).

The Nigerian market on average consumes over 330k bpd which means presently at least, he his selling mostly to Nigeria and all in naira at probably 250k bpd worth of petroleum products and exporting just a little.

When he tries to import the extra 300k bpd to ramp up the refinery’s capacity he needs dollars and taking all of those naira sales to the Banks to get dollars also puts pressure on the naira. So I don’t see the major difference at least until Dangote gets to full capacity and can export the other half comfortably.

With this new method, marketers would first put naira under pressure by searching for dollars to buy from Dangote but the dollars is recycled because Dangote takes those dollars to then buy crude from Nigeria (mostly from NNPC at 300k bpd approximately and note that the refining margin is low so the difference with his total sales to marketers is not that much). NNPC then recycles the dollars back to CBN, so it remains at equilibrium. Dangote on the other hand can then export $1 Billion worth of polypropylene yearly while saving us $260 million of annual polypropylene imports simultaneously. I believe the polypropylene and other raw materials for manufacturing may likely be sold in naira still.

HesInMe:
Modern and properly operational ports are a critical asset for a $1 trillion dollar economy, but mehn....

https://saharareporters.com/2025/03/18/tinubus-lebanese-ally-chagoury-awarded-700million-lagos-ports-contract-despite-lacking

Please don't make this about tribe or religion. Only losers and suckers fight about such distractions.

This is wrong if true.

chimex38:
I guess they were smart enough to think of that.
But the FG via NNPC chickened out at only 7% stake like Chickens 🐔 🐔


Probably they felt their refineries will also be a game changer as well.

The initial deal which was made in 2020/2021 assumed that Nigerian NNPC would be able to supply Dangote about 300k bpd crude for the first 2 years of operations (during test runs and start- ups) to form the remaining 12.5% stake.
At that time, crude oil production still hovered around 1.8 million bpd comfortably and it seemed easy to get to 2 million bpd again which it was in 2019 before COVID. But in 2021/2022/2023 it had fallen gradually to an all time average low of 1.2 -1.3 million bpd. NNPC cancelled the former contract and eventually settled for 7.5% stake which they still had to borrow for.

ositadima1:
You're asking me a leading question. Not only did they handle it terribly—as if they had better solutions to the economic implications the refinery was supposed to bring to Nigeria—but they are still handling it badly. Currently, Dangote has ceased selling to Nigeria. Is this acceptable to you, or do you want to ask another amateurish question?

Did Dangote cease selling to Nigeria or he ceased selling to Nigeria in naira?

Well, I look at this from a different angle. The Government made the crude for naira deal for 6 months as a head start but the crude for naira deal while brilliant, also has its complications.

1) It doesn’t make Dangote liquid enough in dollars (which his business requires). The volume of naira transactions Dangote would then have to convert to dollars to import parts of the remaining crude he needs to run the refinery operations and service his debts also makes the whole exercise somewhat redundant.

2) Oil prices are now around $70 per barrel. At this point, the upstream sector wants all the FX they can get (and NNPC is not an exception) while the large refiners love it because they can purchase crude easily and get better margins (refining is a low margin business generally). In that sense, NNPC and IOC’s would easily supply Dangote if they get dollars. This is also good for us because not all the FX from Dangote’s exports comes to us because Dangote (at least for the moment) would have to send some out to service his debt to Afrexim Bank. While NNPC on the other hand, have a special account with the CBN, so dollars to NNPC flows to the CBN first before anything else is done with it.

3) There may be options of cheaper crude out there which importers can buy and which NNPC knows about due to their long years of connection and experience.

4) Dangote himself can import WTI crude from America which is cheap and his refinery can refine it which gives him the advantage.

Given all of these points, I can see why the Government paused the scheme for a while to study the loopholes if any and to see if it can be better.

RodgersAkpafu:
It's such a disgrace that Dangote is not being supported to the max like should have been the case

If this was a Chinese company
The CCP will give Dangote EVERYTHING he needs

How is he not being supported? Oil prices are low and this is the time NNPC needs all the dollars it can get. If NNPC can give Dangote 70% of the crude he requires in dollars and then be the sole buyer of all of Dangote’s PMS, Diesel and AGO to at least 70% of Nigeria’s capacity, would that be a bad deal? Dangote would export up to 60% of his products as well when at full capacity.