₦airaland Forum

Sunrisepebble:
What I’m hearing is that GT for sure are clear.

GT, Zenith, and UBA are very strong banks fundamentally. I doubt they have these issues.

KarlTom:
When we add the Petrochemicals and Fertilizer, the effect will enter full swing...

I swear. Some underestimate the benefits of this refinery because they expect it to bring prices down or improve the exchange rate.
I have been saying it that Dangote refinery may not massively boost the exchange rate because of low margins in the refining industry (whether he imports crude or buys in naira from Nigeria) but the chain effect on the economy (especially the petrochemicals), the jobs and energy security it provides and would provide at full capacity is priceless.

Mehn Dangote refinery alone almost single handedly changed the dynamics of our petroleum products exports and imports in 2024/2025. This is a really good one for Nigeria.

https://www.thecable.ng/petroleum-products-import-fell-by-75-5-to-n3-7trn-in-q1-says-nbs/

Payunsin:
How will the market react to Israel striking Iran?

Oil prices are already reacting to just the rumour and signs for now but if it eventually happens, oil prices may shoot to $80 per barrel.

Edit: Oh wait, Isreal is attacking Iran already.

Streetinvestor2:
Na you feel he is losing money from sugar.They pay themselves via many means. Age is beginning to tell on him from direct managerial positions..If na me I for done retire completely to go enjoy my money. Man way no even get official wife with all this wealth and associated stress. Money way you go die leave

Well, since no official wife, my man tried to relax with one of those American baddies, e nor end well as everything just spread all over social media
Na rich people wahala be this. No privacy 🤣.

Streetinvestor2:
This is thr usually stat.Why is it not affecting the value of naira which should be the first place to notice it

Because our exports are still 80% oil and gas of which the NNPC gets only about half of that. So if in a year we get 50 Billion USD from oil exports, what we get would be around 25 Billion USD, the rest are repatriated by the likes of Shell and Chevron to their parent companies. Our exports are not yet diversified so the predominant source of FX is oil which we don’t fully control to some extent.

The value of the naira is also affected by the very high debt servicing (especially foreign) and the budget deficits we have had non stop since 2013.

Deal with China done. Oil prices now clocking $70 per barrel this evening.

SonofElElyonRet:
That's June ending latest.. dangote said fertilizer will be listed first. Meaning we might have both fertilizer and refinery listed this month

Hmm he also said before the end of the year (a tone that doesn’t show indication of urgency). Fingers crossed though. We dey here.

SonofElElyonRet:
Usually when a company lists by introduction, price from first shoots up then falls.. will same scenario play out with dangote oil refinery and fertilizer?

Dangote has applied to list the Dangote petrochemicals.

“Speaking on the impact of Dangote Petrochemicals’ listing, Kwairanga highlighted NGX’s commitment to facilitating growth and investment in Nigeria’s financial markets”.

“Dangote Refinery has already applied for their petrochemical listing, and we are working to ensure their inclusion before the end of the second quarter,” Kwairanga stated.

https://nairametrics.com/2025/06/07/dangote-petrochemicals-listing-on-ngx-to-strengthen-nigerias-stock-market-chairman-kwairanga/

SonofElElyonRet:
The surprise next week obviously isn't listing.. let's wait and see what he's talking about. Perhaps he's going into petroleum products marketing (stations)?

I guess so since he said it’s going to change the downstream sector.
Or perhaps a new deal with NNPC to be their sole supplier again?

Mpeace:
From the video, he intends listing the fertiliser first.
He said the surprise will come next week and it will result in an overhaul of the downstream sector. And that the refinery will come on nse after the fertiliser. Hmmmm.
Make we just dey look sha

Yeah he can list the fertiliser and even the petrochemicals separately.

moneymanager:
Sir, see all the adjectives you used
Comparatively, on the average, seemed, seem that bad.
With all due respect sir, if you will indulge me and not take my response as impertinent, this is a noncommittal tangentially misleading response.

Aight let’s look at loan losses of the FUGAZ for example.

Zenith loan losses

N401 billion in 2023
N594 billion in 2024
N36 billion in Q1 2025

GTCO

N102.8 Billion in 2023
N137 Billion in 2024
N13.4 Billion in Q1 2025

UBA

N154 Billion in 2023
N258.9 Billion in 2024
N11.1 Billion in Q1 2025

First HoldCo

N174.7 Billion in 2023
N371 Billion in 2024
N41.2 Billion in Q1 2025

Access Holdings

N84.4 Billion in 2023
N92.9 Billion in 2024
N70 Billion in Q1 2025

You see that Access Holdings are the only ones having it worse in 2025 compared to 2024 for instance with such a high Q1 data.

(It doesn’t seem any of the quarters in 2023 and 2024 were as low or close to the low of Q1 2025, if any were, present the data and I would admit my methodology is flawed).

We do not know what the numbers for Q1 2023/2024 were for instance and this is why I said we would need data of Q2 as well to see where the trend would likely go.

I am not giving you definite predictions since we don’t have all the data yet, I am only looking at the low Q1 2025 numbers. You can counter me by showing that Q1 2023 and 2024 also had low numbers or that it could be as low in any of the quarters of those years and then spike in another quarter. All of these are possible, but I am only giving you a trend here (dealing with probabilities based on the data we have)

Streetinvestor2:
Then the crash lol.
The market is repricing to our new exchange rate of 1600

The reason I’m not that scared about the crash is because for the NGX this time, it would be nothing close to what it was in 2008 due to the dominance of local investors.

The NGX this time is affected more by policies of the Tinubu Government (take the sudden uptick in livestock for example after the ministry was created) and by results/performance of companies. In 2008, it was largely dominated by foreign investors.

I would still say we need more foreign investors coming in though

I mean if Jonathan could kneel as a president before a certain pastor and Peter obi could cry yes daddy, yes daddy to Bishop Oyedepo, why can’t Soludo consult the gods of his fatherland?

Alhaji says he would announce something very soon but he wants Nigerians to know that the Dangote refinery belongs to them.

Could this be the moment we have been waiting for? The listing of the Dangote refinery? Fingers crossed.

Access Bank (Masters of M&A)

moneymanager:
Sell
https://nairametrics.com/2025/06/02/bad-loans-nigerian-listed-banks-incur-n3-77-trillion-in-loan-losses-since-2023-see-top-losers/

When you read the report you would see that comparatively on the average, the bad loans seemed to have reduced significantly in Q1 2025. I think Q2 would give us even more perspective but so far 2025 doesn’t seem that bad compared to 2024.

GboyegaD:
These guys are clowns. They take decisions without thinking through it. One person just have a thought and next thing is implementing it whether meaningful or otherwise.

Okay have you thought through it yourself?

Just30:
Ghana's cocoa production is the lowest it has ever been

But still one of your top exports and you are the second largest producer and exporter in the world.

vaxx:
your case is absurd , Zambia kwacha and Argentina pesos didn't improved despite suspending debt payment , why do you Ghana cedis supposed to improved when she did the same . Debt payment suspension doesn't address structural problem, it only gives breathing space . It is time bound. Nothing significant.

All indices indicate Ghana macro economic conditions to be in good condition .


From the president himelf addressing the Issue ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYMQjjlfi5U?si=2Kz80MEpwn7DNPe3


Ghana new capital City...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rROlr8yQxFw?si=LcE2jkKghXsawriT

Did Zambian and Argentine export increase significantly at thesame time? Gold is your biggest export.

Don’t you know how much gold prices also increased in the past 6 months? If copper prices increased significantly when Zambia paused debt servicing, of course their reserves would get boosted due to both factors happening together at thesame time. Why are you arguing this?

Cocoa also increased four to five fold in 2024/2025 and you are the world’s second largest producer.

So you paused your debt servicing and had two of your biggest exports increase in price by several folds, what then are you arguing?

vaxx:
very absurd. Gold is adding up yes ,but stating that pausing payment also contributed to a stronger cedis is flawed . I have given you Zambia , Argentina case as an example. Your currency cannot skyrocket to 42 percent high against the dollar if your reserved is not strong ( that is just more than enough than what payment pospontment can caused )

Ghana is busy expanding is Gold reserve ( Ghana currently owns the largest gold reserve in West Africa )coupled with increased imf support , the last trenched of the money borrowed will soon hit Ghana bank in the coming month, it will add up to the strength of the cedis again. Do you even know dollars falls in Ghana everyday ( two weeks consequtively now .


Anyway Ghana govt is spending , infact the spending might be more bigger the last regime , it is just that it is a prudent initiative.

Ghana is currently about building a new capital city . Accra has being reported congested and therefore Ghana need a new phase

I don’t know what you are arguing. Pausing payments in 2024 helped you accrue more into your reserves from 6 Billion USD in 2023 to 8 Billion USD in 2024.

Pausing payments gave you space and headroom to boost your reserves. Nothing difficult to comprehend there.

You were buying more gold in 2024, if you had to service debts which were no longer sustainable for Ghana, your FX reserves wouldn’t accrue that much or rise significantly. This is common sense.

Building a new capital city at this stage would be a white elephant project or would take decades. I doubt Ghanaian Government can do that at this stage and it would be ill advised. I doubt the IMF would allow that.

The Nigerian equities market in May 2025

☞ The momentum in the market sustained, with prices up by 6%.

☞ All the sectors bar the Oil & Gas and Power closed in green for the month. The sector has been marking back-to-back losses after initially feeding fat when the fuel subsidy was removed.

☞ The Agricultural sector did best, propped up by Presco. The Consumer Goods and Telco sectors also did very well, notching double-digit returns.

☞ The market is up 9% year-to-date. The USD-equivalent return is 11%, which is higher than the S&P 500's YTD return of 0.2%.

Copied.

Good one Fidelity Bank.

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/promoted/797898-fitch-upgrades-fidelity-banks-national-rating-to-anga-affirms-long-term-idr-at-b.html

chimex38:
@Bolded
Govt has heard your plea..
Say no more.

https://www.energyreforms.ng/publications/putting-every-barrel-to-work-nigeria-s-new-presidential-directive-on-cost-efficiency-/


Tax waivers for production efficiency.

Yeah, I saw this some hours ago. This is a strategy to ensure we get more from our crude oil production because Nigerian cost of production is the highest in the world at around $48 per barrel sometimes.
So we get little to nothing (especially offshore) at this time where crude oil prices are now $63 per barrel. The president is bringing out policies to help reduce the cost of production in the face of low crude oil prices.

KarlTom:
Comparison with "the world" is what turns me off especially when we fail to consider other metrics

We've lived through successive tenures who promise one change or the other but at the end of the day little or nothing changes.
Our natural and human resources are being 'wasted and pilfered' before our very eyes.

Let's advocate for [and institute] good leadership, we'll see that all these seemingly great issues will vanish...

The truth is that while great leadership is crucial especially the leadership that cuts wasteful spending, no Government can do much without increasing revenue consistently especially with our population growth.

If the Government doesn’t increase taxes, they would print massively or borrow massively. When they print massively, it is always beneficial short term but mid to long term the inflation and currency devaluation resulting from it takes more from the people eventually. When they borrow, the external debt servicing puts pressure on the currency mid to long term while domestic borrowing crowds out the private sector and hinders growth.

We can increase taxes but give incentives to manufacturers and those in the agric value chain. This is what the tax bill was proposing.

The only thing I have against this Government when it comes to this is that they self sabotage by some wasteful spending from time to time which is not good for the optics.

But they have been more deliberate in trying to solve our problem from the roots by increasing revenue.

Mpeace:
If so, then the borrowing should have slowed down now that the subsidy is gone but the reverse is the case.

We have to increase revenue tremendously for the borrowing to slow down. In my opinion, we should have increased VAT from 7.5% to 10% as proposed by tax reforms but law makers turned it down. Our VAT rate is one of the lowest in the world if not the lowest.

This Government has done more of domestic borrowing. In terms of external debts, they have only increased it by approximately 2 Billion USD to 45 Billion USD at the end of 2024 from 43 Billion USD in May 2023. It seems they are yet to access majority of those World Bank loans approved in 2024.

But, the optics is bad with some wasteful spending and the NASS keep padding budgets like they’ve always done since 1999.

pluto09:
MTN has done over 2b naira in just 5 minutes of trade....

Sign of a good day already.

Mpeace:
That was the official exchange rate

I know. CBN rate/Official rate, same thing. I am just saying companies would only quote the official rate. Whether or not that rate was increasingly becoming accessible or less accessible is another thing.

Streetinvestor2:
Why did you choose 750 and not present reality of 1600

I used 1600 to calculate May 2025.

Mpeace:
Lol. When Tinubu took over, the rate was 465/$ not 750.
See below our seplat dividend exchange rate at the time.
Even Tinubu knows that his regime has been terrible. He and Buhari should compete for the worse economy managers.

Because companies use the rate set by CBN but that rate was not real because even big businesses were struggling to get it at 465 which is the reason the backlogs continued to pile.

jonnysessy:
I really wouldn't have made any comment again. Because you have said it all and i quote "Let me talk like one of JAGABAN praise singers". So which just goes to to imply that you are just jiving and catching cruise. If you convert the so called gains made on NGX in dollar terms we are actually retrogressing. But, all the same we move. Any movement is a movement so far you are not stagnant.

In terms of total market cap, we have only retrogressed if we use the official exchange rate set by Emiefele’s crawling peg of 450 naira/USD as at May 2023.

NGX market cap (as at May 2023) - 28 trillion naira (62 Billion USD) using 450 naira/USD

NGX market cap (as at May 2025) - 70 trillion naira (43.75 Billion USD) using 1600 naira/ USD

However, if we use 750 naira/USD for May 2023, we have actually still gained in USD terms from 37.3 Billion USD in May 2023 to 43.75 Billion USD in May 2025.