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Religion / Re: When I Hear People Make Testimonies Of Getting HIV Cure, This Comes To My Mind. by Guontey(m): 9:59pm On Dec 29, 2022 |
jaephoenix:And how does this appear I'm talking about epidemiology? Take it easy, dude. This is just maths, not epidemiology. It doesn't carry with it all those intricacies you have in your post above. Prevalance in Bayesian statistics is different from prevalence in epidemiology. |
Celebrities / Re: Chika Ike Appreciates Her Godfather, James Ndambo (Photos) by Guontey(m): 3:51pm On Dec 25, 2022 |
Religion / Re: When I Hear People Make Testimonies Of Getting HIV Cure, This Comes To My Mind. by Guontey(m): 2:16am On Dec 22, 2022 |
This is really nicely said, though lacking in some detail. The probability isn't exactly 1%. It's a little higher, but it's no more than 2-3%. And as you have rightly pointed out, the consequence is a significant shift in people's experiences which often leads them into thinking a miracle is at work. Quite the contrary! Say the prevalence of HIV in Nigeria is probably no more than 1.5%. This is the probability of having HIV and it significantly affects the probability of testing positive given that you have the disease. Let's call that P(D). Therefore, P(not D)=0.985. If the sensitivity of the test, like you've pointed out is, 99%, then it means the test is wrong 1% of the time. Let's say the specificity of the test is 97%, which means if someone is not HIV positive, then the HIV test gets that right 97% of the time. You can go from this to obtaining P(D | HIV+) which is the probability that you have HIV given that you test positive. That's (0.99 x 0.015)/(0.99 x 0.015 + 0.97 x 0.985) = 0.0153. That equals just about 1.53% probability that you have HIV given that you test positive. This is the posterior probability in Bayes theorem. So, the chance is not even great at all and the person may actually not have HIV at all. So your observation is correct. Many go from here into panick mode. Only by taking the test a second time and using this as your new prior probability does the posterior increase. This is why a second test is recommended after doing a first. Before extensive use of Bayes theorem, many people didn't understand this. Not even doctors who conducted the test, so it's not totally unreasonable to have many still ignorant about it. 3 Likes |
Programming / Re: Lack of funds can really be demotivating when self learning to code by Guontey(m): 3:33pm On Dec 03, 2022 |
TastyFriedPussy:I don't see why you should feel demotivated. Always think about the reality that there are those who have done it even in the worst conditions. That's what's important. There are single moms who have had to juggle their kid, their job, and then coding, and who still succeeded at this. My advice to you is to keep your eye on the goal. |
Programming / Re: A "Senior" Software Developer Could Not Solve This Coding Challenge, Can You? by Guontey(m): 1:57pm On Oct 14, 2022 |
namikaze: You can write it in one line of code if you can import Counter
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Programming / Re: What Should Be Next ? by Guontey(m): 1:52pm On Oct 14, 2022 |
UrFears: I think you have it pretty much figured out. If you aren't that interested in programming, you can still work in tech for sure. There are still tons of opportunities and your background in computer science gives you the needed advantage. You could focus on being a product manager, program manager, project manager, etc. Those are skills in tech that sometimes require less coding experience. Nevertheless, having some coding experience may put your in better stead. If I were you, I'd focus on getting that masters in the US or Canada, and not the UK. There's no question you are automatically exposed to many opportunities if you go to these countries to pursue graduate studies. You have to be aware there's a lot more competition however, and you should be ready to distinguish yourself. Obtaining some external certifications may help here with distinguishing yourself. If you are interested in product management for example, look into some of the certifications offered by The Product School, or try to get some Google stuff. And yeah, please take the front-end coding seriously, even if you wont' use it. A program manager with good knowledge of front-end coding is better than one without. 1 Like |
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