₦airaland Forum

Subsidywise20:
Hmmm

I'm going to repost my prediction for 2023 here, that I made on another thread, now that BAT and APC have their cards on the table..along with LP and PDP



To add, it is possible that Atiku could do enough to win without a runoff. Obi and BAT supporters are fighting out a scorched earth campaign , and the Southern vote may be severely divided as a result. All Atiku needs to do is win in the North, take a few Southern states, and that's it.


(Of course playing politcal prophet is a risky game. Most of the time, one is wrong. Remember the 2016 election in the USA, where everyone thought it was Clinton that would beat Trump.)

We both made similar analysis and I love your insight.

From the cards on table, what do you think Peter Obi will have to do to win the election?

adekolaelect:
It too early to mention Rigging for the election not yet conducted. Though that will be your last hope of language when Tinubu become the president. Mere wishes or Imagination can not make anyone a president but level of his political strength and porpular acceptance from Northern part down to the north .

If push comes to shove, I prefer Tinubu to Atiku. The last thing I wanna see now is another Hausa-Fulani president takin' over.

The problem is having 2 of the 3 big horses in the south - they will most likely cancel each other out. There's no magic to be done, at least not next year, the north will choose always their own.

sukieboy:
This is the challenge with the mentality of the youth. Nigerian youth do not think through the process be it politics, business or relationship. Look my brother , winning the 17 states of the south cannot make Obi president, neither winning the 19 states of the North make Atiku. To win , you need majority of the votes in atleaset 24 states and at least 25% in at least 28 states. So you opponent need to win overwhelmingly in just 8 states of the federation without you scoring up to 25%.
With this in mind, the Obi campaign needs to increase 100 fold and campaign must translate into votes. It's a long for you guys.

I think you also need the advice you penned in your first paragraph.

We have to come to terms that there are 3 forces with almost equal odds for the first time.
It has a always been a 2 horse race before, and that is where your analysis work.

It will be a miracle for one of 'em to take 24/36 with the remaining two share just 12.

Zetty177x:
Atiku won that election bro

Okay. All Hail President Atiku.

Who wins a presidential election is not the next president, the next president is the one who won the election.

It's a lil' dicey there, but I hope you got the message.

bnbash:
Your energy seems to be more in South. Southern votes alone cannot make Obi President

I've been thinking hard 'bout it, but that man Obi is not one that can soften the hardened heart of most northerners.

The only hope is to floor the south, scrape a lil' vote from the north and hope Tinubu, Kwankwaso and Atiku cancel each other out in the north.

BluntTheApostle:
The way you people talk, only Obi can prevent wailing.

Please, give us concrete verifiable reasons (with credible links) to vote for Obi.

You cannot tell me that electing Tinubu or Atiku will cause wailing for 8 years and electing Obi will automatically make the country boom, and then leave it like that.

Tell us what is special about Obi, and why he is better than Atiku or Tinubu.

Because we need to be fair to everyone in the race. And if we want to be fair, Obi is not as experienced nationally politically as Tinubu and Atiku. You can't compare managing of personal businesses to presiding over a country, especially a multi-ethnic one like Nigeria.

Both Atiku and Tinubu have better unifying potentials than Obi. Both are very liberal Muslims, and Tinubu has the credit of being the first governor to have a cosmopolitan cabinet, which included an Igbo man.

No one knows Obi's national outlook. And what national political role has he played?

We've really plunged so deep that we're all (myself included) contented with mediocre candidates.

Atiku is another fulanized man. We've tasted what being under a Hausa-Fulani president looks like and it was the most horrible experience we've had in civilian rule.

What matters most 'bout a president is not his antecedents, not his past records and not even what he promises, of course, all these do matter. What matters most 'bout a president is first, his mental well-being and health and then, his personality.

15 years ago, I will raise the banner and campaign for Tinubu even when I know he's just as corrupt. But erm... Now?
My man wants us to all go in the military, eating nothing but casavva and agbado.
My man cannot climb a whirled staircase without assist
My man took 2 minutes to flip a simple speech paper
My man cannot raise a presidential flag, and the man we all called "lifeless" was lively enough to raise the flag for him.

He ought to have rested and worked Osibanjo to the seat. Man would'a still have all the influence.

adekolaelect:
This one has becomes Preacher or Cancillor but you forget that" Enuose" No be mouths .your wailing more years is more than what you predicted bcs After Tinubu presidency na Northern Turn it remain .which means you will wail for 16years if you fail to Batify now before it is too late .we have all see now that there is no Biafra and Oduduwa nation now but if any one comes out after election for Biafra and Oduduwa that you all failed to mention now heenn Kanu treatment will be a child play to yours.

Will you bet with me? Except it comes down to a game of rigging, Atiku will win if Obi does not take SW.

Yes, your are right - 16 more years of wailing.

PapaHadum:
A simple analysis will shock you.

A family of 5, a father and mother with 3 #Obieient adult children who are capable of convincing their parents to become @Obidients, who also will vote and stay behind to protect their votes and ensure right results are transmitted to INEC server?

Declare result in such a family and appreciate the fact that the odd favours PO.
Not to talk of average undergrads who are angry because of ASUU strike?

The game is up.

If the obidient children don't preach OBI to their parents, Tinubu will floor the west.

Atiku will win the election.

BabaAgba79:
Under Obi, Nigerians will wail and suffer because of his habit of not spending money. See, Tinubu knows much better than Obi. Nigerians will do better under BAT. Obi's austerity measures will not help the private sector. The economy of a country is driven by the private sector. BAT is the answer!

I look forward to see how much of his stinginess will extend towards naturally curbing corruption.
Given the same scenario 15 years ago, I will go for Tinubu. Now? Nah... Man can't even lift a presidential flag. A "lifeless" Buhari had to help him lift a light weighted flag.

Basher8583:
So you actually believe the parents that brought you to this world are not experienced in politics.

You simply don't have any shame at all. And that's why you guys keep failing in everything you attempt.

It's no shame. Just as my father will admit that he is technically smarter than I am, but I am more intelligent and more aware of politics than he is.

Facts don't give a damn how you feel about it.

nighter:
My parents are not ignorant of politics and are voting TINUBU. No be every parent dey same class.

They are ignorant.

TrackerXL:
Your father n mother have to be mad if they believe Peter Pandora is beta than Bola Tinubu without you providing a single prove to that claim.

One of those you mentioned wants to recruit 50 million of us into the army and feed us with Staples like agbado and cassava.

My father and mother will skip.

seunjungle1:
You think all youths are blind and lack of good vision as you are?
Why should I even vote for Obi when am seeing Jagaban on he ballot paper?
Pray that your life should be rule as obi ruled Anambra now.

Give me 2 solid reasons why I and the many obidient youths should go for Jagaban. If i'm unable to refute or counter 'em, I and the youths that revere me will go for Jagaban.

All I want is a great Nigeria.

Those who win election are not on the net. The winners of election are the commoners, the market women - older working force... (If twitter is where elections are won, Atiku will be president today)

Solution?
90% of southern youths will go for Peter Obi, but 75% of the southern workforce (especially in the west) will go for Tinubu.

The older workforce are not exposed, know nothin' 'bout politics, and will go wherever the wind blows. If Tinubu is, who the others are voting for, then the large mass of IDGAF voters will vote for him with no reasons at all.

However, I CAN convince my mother and father (Who are the members of the older working force) to go for Peter Obi, and YOU CAN too.

OUR parents, who are ignorant of politics will go with US than believe the words of a man in a vegetative state with nothing to give but a small bag of rice and oil.

That is the only way the south may fall entirely behing Obi. If not, we will wail for 8 more years.

#PreachOBIdienceToYourParents

ScamHunter:
And who do you think you can deceive with your reverse psychology?

Obi cannot win. It's Atiku or Tinubu who are both restless at the ongoing tsunami that would win? We know your tricks, but it has already failed.

Peter Obi is your next president so get used to it.

Try dey read post before you comment.

jhydebaba:
Because your parents are political illiterate does not mean you should come to a public forum and label all parent same.

Because your parents are political literate does not mean you should all parents as same.

...

This is the very first election where most percentage of the youth are actively interested in choosing the next president. The massive force he heralds is actually scary. Tinubu and Atiku will have to strategize against an unforseen opposition.

But erm... These are 2 reasons why Peter Obi cannot win

1. The northern population, as it is, remains dumb, and at the expense of dying of malnutrition, will still pick Buhari's 3rd term over any southern candidate.

Solution? I don't have one.

2. Those who win election are not on the net. The winners of election are the commoners, the market women - older working force... (If twitter is where elections are won, Atiku will be president today)

Solution?
90% of southern youths will go for Peter Obi, but 75% of the southern workforce (especially in the west) will go for Tinubu.

The older workforce are not exposed, know nothin' 'bout politics, and will go wherever the wind blows. If Tinubu is, who the others are voting for, then the large mass of IDGAF voters will vote for him with no reasons at all.

However, I CAN convince my mother and father (Who are the members of the older working force) to go for Peter Obi, and YOU CAN too.

OUR parents, who are ignorant of politics will go with US than believe the words of a man in a vegetative state with nothing to give but a small bag of rice and oil.

That is the only way the south may fall entirely behing Obi. If not, we will wail for 8 more years.

#PreachOBIdienceToYourParents

ajerimitan:
Arbitrage fiat to dollar to crypto back to fiat. Eg . from bank card to skrill, skrill to binance, binance back to bank.

I sent you a mail, please respond.

Bonesbreaker:
My worry is Peter obi should get more security.. Is going to be bloody soon

I've also calculated OBi being assassinated. If that happens, the light at the end of the tunnel might be farther than anticipated.
He ought to hire securities that can't be swayed by Nigerian politics, for that is what I would have done.

Okoroawusa:
Anakogheri

If I were a member of the APC, I will go for Tinubu, just like you did, no matter what. Why? Because it is in my best interest as a member of his party.

But i'm with the masses who've suffered for years. I'm part of the masses who were denied their own palliatives and called "looters" when they fought for what was theirs. I'm with the masses who thought Buhari was some hope because we were deceived.

Thus, we look to OBIdience because it is better than the sacrifice of going for a fellow Yoruba man who should take a deserved rest or remain as a kingmaker.

This is the very first election where most percentage of the youth are actively interested in choosing the next president. The massive force he heralds is actually scary. Tinubu and Atiku will have to strategize against an unforseen opposition.

But erm... These are 2 reasons why Peter Obi cannot win

1. The northern population, as it is, remains dumb, and at the expense of dying of malnutrition, will still pick Buhari's 3rd term over any southern candidate.

Solution? I don't have one.

2. Those who win election are not on the net. The winners of election are the commoners, the market women - older working force... (If twitter is where elections are won, Atiku will be president today)

Solution?
90% of southern youths will go for Peter Obi, but 75% of the southern workforce (especially in the west) will go for Tinubu.

The older workforce are not exposed, know nothin' 'bout politics, and will go wherever the wind blows. If Tinubu is, who the others are voting for, then the large mass of IDGAF voters will vote for him with no reasons at all.

However, I CAN convince my mother and father (Who are the members of the older working force) to go for Peter Obi, and YOU CAN too.

OUR parents, who are ignorant of politics will go with US than believe the words of a man in a vegetative state with nothing to give but a small bag of rice and oil.

That is the only way the south may fall entirely behing Obi. If not, we will wail for 8 more years.

#PreachOBIdienceToYourParents

V up

Big2bore:
MEN ; this World without the WOMEN how would it be?

It would be a pain in the ass.

We love women, they are indispensable.

ACallForHelp:
UPDATE will drop in a couple of minutes.

Been following. Please drop the update ASAP.

Jeromejnr:
Is that your rebuttal? When your post actually showed immaturity of mind.

Faceless forums now allow kids to even talk to their elders anyhow.

In your lil' mind, you are a redpiller cringing at a simp's post.

NeckingNgulping:
I was thinking that girl Kelly was being over hyped until I searched for her videos. That girl is really a baddie.

She literally kills all her steps. My kinda girl..

There's something special about her that will make you to never get enough of her.

If I see a girl who rocked my fancy, I'd sing her praises to the sexy skies too.

Ignore the lil' ones who call you "simp", they are the real simps because they tryin' too hard to fit in the red pill, macho family.

Offline, most of 'em fare no better.

FERNANDEZISBACK:
Something need to be done about men and rape..
Getting outta hand..

Who should do something 'bout it?

B

WatchYourSix:
Once upon a time when sex was a private matter...

We straff ourselves in private and just lockup..
If not for pregnancy...nobody will admit they are having sex in those days...

But now....the world has gone mad and suddenly cant stop rambling about who or what they are sleeping with....

I bit hard at this.
So truee!

To start with, I found it hard to keep up with your write up. Your sentence structure should be simplified in future write ups.

chingle5:
Question 1
Now with all this does it mean that the developed countries are just more understanding and practical in their decision making and the African societies are just nonunderstanding and too religious in their decision making ? regarding the perception of the LGBTQ group.

Y'all have this bias of believing a developed country is an evidence of "everything right".

Yea, they could be right in science and technology but not in morality.
Our law in Nigeria isn't perfectly at work, what still keeps everything holding is our way of life. The respect instilled in us by our culture, the morals and all.
If we were as mannerless as the western world, most of Africa will be a failed state.

Culture is shaped by religion, experiences, affiliation with nature and the common desires within human.
Before Christianity and Islam, men are marrying to women (not fellow men) in almost all part of Africa. That should tell you that the new found religion isn't the reason.
Christianity and Islam frowns at fornication, but we fornicate regardless.

Question 2
Let think about a country where the LGBTQ group is the majority and the heterosexual is the minority now I am not saying that you should start thinking there are more gay men there coz LGBTQ group means there are other type of different sexualities.. Me for 1 I can tell you that atrocities will be committed but we have also seen atrocities committed in the heterosexual communities where father's sleep with their daughters and mother's sleep with their sons so I will place it in a equal standard and I will tell you why.. if it is an uncivilized country with little regard for human lives such as we have seen terrorists, herdsman, unknown gunmen and others it will be very high but if it is a civilized country with a very high regard for human lives in developed countries it will be very low.. I am not saying it will not be there but it will be very low.. But thinking deep what other things will happen?

Can you imagine? Are you seriously characterizing humans by their sexual orientation?

Wherever humans are, regardless of sexuality,
vawulence will reign.

Question 3
Using the rule of double standard
This miraculous change/behavior of Africa people to not tolerate the nature of the LGBTQ group in developing countries and to tolerate the nature of the LGBTQ group in developed places is it a Natural behavior or a Learned behavior because most people tend to draw a religious view or opinion towards the LGBTQ group for that behavior but it is the same holy book that teach we should love thy neighbor as yourself or how is it been put but in this situation they are human being like you and i. In philosophy it is the Golden Rule we use, which is similar, which says .. you should treat others the way you want to be treated yourself.

Why not just put it like this: Let's IGNORE God, if God isn't in the picture will you be okay with LGBTQ+?
Say it that way instead of cutting corners.

If a reference for "morality" doesn't exist, then nothing is good and nothing is bad. A good man is the same as a bad man. A straight man is no different from a gay. A killer is no different from a doctor. Hitler is no different from Mandela.

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