₦airaland Forum

Heishere:
Don't think so. PZ still has a tremendous amount of debt

megawealth01:
PZ and CADBURY go soon rub shoulders?

pluto09:
The new tax law doesn't increase effective rate for everyone. It even reduces the rate for low income earners.
I have calculated my new tax rate and is even lower than what I am currently paying.
It is those in the informal sector that have not been paying before that might eventually have issues.
And mind you some of those taxes are not going to the fg but the state for instance the personal income tax.

orriyomi33:
Ellahlakes has done over 300% since I added it to my watchlist some 90 days ago during the back and forth on the thread.

Agbalowomeri:
Two months distribution loading

sterlingD:
R T BRSICOE

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/44590_R_T_BRISCOE_(NIGERIA)_PLC.-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2025.pdf
Culled from
https://ngxgroup.com/exchange/data/company-profile/?symbol=RTBRISCOE&directory=companydirectory

THE INITIATES PLC

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/44592_THE_INITIATES_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2025.pdf

BRICLINKS

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/44588_BRICLINKS_AFRICA_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2025.pdf

Sunrisepebble:
Do you think any of them can deliver 40-50% capital appreciation by year end or a dividend yield of close to ten percent. That is what I’m chasing in any stock that I buy now. My last loot was used to load Cadbury and Wapco which I believe can

Sunrisepebble:
If it can get here then I am out. I don try

KarlTom:
How do you call taxation a rip off?

Are you aware that some countries pay as much as 40% for PIT...

DeRuggedProff:
My ChatGpt prompt whenever an earnings report is released :
*ChatGpt Finance Prompt:*
Give me a full detailed and forensic financial and investment analysis of the attached results here. Cover in details the income statement, balance sheet, cash flow, profitability, liquidity, solvency, and valuation ratios. Compare it with industry benchmarks and historical performance. Conclude with a buy, sell, or hold recommendation, with clear reasoning. Peruse in details all the notes in the financial statement and indicate all red flags.
Determine the fair price based on this attached result using at least three most standard valuation models.
Include recent corporate actions or capital raises.
Assess dividend sustainability.
Factor in macroeconomic risks like FX and inflation.
Include chart patterns or breakout signals if possible.
Determine if there is any window dressing of this results. Fish out all grey areas.

I applied this prompt to the current Oando results. See below what I got in response:


ChatGpt:
Here's a forensic and investment-grade financial analysis of Oando Plc’s Q1 2025 unaudited interim report, covering the income statement, balance sheet, cash flows, key financial ratios, red flags, valuation models, and investment recommendation:

🧾 1. INCOME STATEMENT ANALYSIS (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

Metric Q1 2025 (₦’000) Q1 2024 (₦’000) % Change

Revenue 932,574 915,420 +1.88%
Gross Profit 85,426 31,409 +171.94%
Operating Income (120,339) 117,202 N/M
Net Finance Income 67,777 (46,855) +244.6%
Profit Before Tax (52,562) 70,347 N/M
Net Profit (Group) 113,058 59,346 +90.5%

📌 Observation:
Despite a higher net profit, this was due to a massive income tax credit (₦165.6bn). Operating performance was actually negative, driven by a large other operating loss of ₦301.9bn, which warrants scrutiny.

🧮 2. BALANCE SHEET ANALYSIS

Key Highlights (Group):

Item Q1 2025 (₦’bn) FY 2024 (₦’bn)

Total Assets 6,834 6,434
Total Liabilities 7,074 6,795
Equity (240) (361)
Cash and Equivalents 303.9 221.8
Borrowings (Total) 3,038.6 2,772


📌 Observation:

Negative Equity (-₦240bn): Highly concerning. Accumulated losses continue to erode capital.

Borrowings increased by ₦266bn, indicating reliance on debt financing

💰 3. CASH FLOW ANALYSIS

Segment Q1 2025 (₦’000) Q1 2024 (₦’000)

Net Operating CF (176,976) +379,289
Net Investing CF (38,992) (1,197)
Net Financing CF +327,153 (157,465)
Net Change in Cash +111,184 +220,627


📌 Red Flag: Cash flow from operations turned negative, meaning the company is relying on financing activities (mostly new borrowings) to remain liquid.

📊 4. RATIO ANALYSIS

a. Profitability

Gross Margin = 9.2% (vs 3.4% in Q1 2024) ✅

Net Margin = 12.1% (vs 6.5%) ✅ (but driven by tax credit)

ROA ≈ 1.65%

ROE = N/A (Negative Equity)


b. Liquidity

Current Ratio = 1.17x (1,235bn / 1,054bn) ✅

Quick Ratio ≈ 1.0x


c. Solvency

Debt-to-Equity = Negative (₦3.04tr debt on -₦240bn equity) ❌

Debt-to-Assets = 44.5% ❗


d. Valuation Multiples (Estimates; needs market cap):

P/E: Assuming ~₦5/share EPS (quarterly annualized), P/E ~1.5–2x — appears low, but driven by tax credits.

EV/EBITDA: Likely elevated due to poor core earnings.

🔎 5. RED FLAGS & GREY AREAS

1. ₦301.9bn "Other Operating Loss"

This is unusually large. It may relate to FX losses, derivative losses, or asset impairments. Needs clarity from note 4.

2. Tax Credit of ₦165.6bn

Not from core operations. Likely from deferred tax adjustments. Not sustainable.

3. Negative Retained Earnings

Group: (₦181.2bn)

Company: (₦560bn)


4. Window Dressing Indicators

Strong net profit contrasts with poor operating and cash performance — suggest accounting gains.

Large deferred tax asset increase (+₦36bn) and impairment reversals hint at aggressive assumptions.

📌 6. FAIR VALUE ESTIMATION (₦)

Using conservative trailing/forward metrics and industry multiples:

a. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assuming:

EBITDA ~₦60bn (normalized)

WACC = 18%

Growth = 2%

Enterprise Value = ₦360bn

Debt = ₦3tr → Equity value = Negative


b. Relative Valuation (P/E, EV/EBITDA)

P/E of 4x on sustainable EPS of ₦3 = ₦12 fair value

EV/EBITDA = 5x on ₦60bn → EV = ₦300bn → Negative equity again.


c. Book Value Multiple (P/B)

Book value is negative, so P/B is not usable.

📌 Estimated Conservative Fair Price: ₦8–₦10 (if normalized EPS is sustainable)
📌 Aggressive Valuation: ₦12–₦15 (if full tax credits are repeatable)

📈 7. CHART PATTERNS & BREAKOUT SIGNALS

Do you want me to analyze current NGX price action for OANDO with chart patterns and Ichimoku/Keltner/Volume breakout setups?

🧾 8. DIVIDEND SUSTAINABILITY

No dividend paid

Dividend Payable of ₦1.65bn on books from prior years

Negative equity and cash burn = unsustainable for dividend resumption.

🌍 9. MACRO RISKS: FX & INFLATION

Naira depreciation significantly affects cost of servicing USD debts (Oando has material FX exposure).

High inflation pressures margins and borrowing costs.

Crude oil price volatility remains a core business risk.

🏁 10. INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION

✅ Verdict: HOLD with High Speculative Risk

Pros:

Revenue stability

Positive tax-driven net profit

Operational asset base with growth potential


Cons:

Negative equity

Cash flow issues

Highly leveraged

Masked core profitability (possible window dressing)

🧠 Strategic Play:

Only for speculative investors betting on oil recovery, asset sale, or restructuring.

Strong activist or institutional moves (like recapitalization) could rerate valuation.

Agbalowomeri:
If I fit see Zenith for 30, I fit manage am

SohSoh:
Executive Summary



Conclusion



Mecure Industries Plc presents a solid investment opportunity with strong fundamentals, strategic debt management, dividend income potential, and medium-term growth outlook. For investors seeking exposure to Nigeria’s pharmaceutical sector, Mecure offers a compelling mix of value, yield, and expansion capacity.



We assign a BUY recommendation, supported by stable financials, expanding operations, and disciplined capital management.



⸻



This recommendation is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors are encouraged to conduct independent analysis or consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

yMcy56:
We are awaiting Oando results by tomorrow Friday according to the document uploaded on NGX...... all things being equal......

There's one other stock on watchlist now....
A popular stock that has disappointed many here..
Maybe the time to compensate is approaching who knows...

Mankind2024:
Happy workers' Day!. Take time out to celebrate your journey. You deserve it : :
Here is mine
My investment journey has been a marathon, and I've learned valuable lessons along the way. As a student of legendary investors like Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett, I've read over 50 best-selling books on investing. One key takeaway that has guided my strategy is Warren Buffett's advice: "Never buy a stock that you're not ready to own forever." This principle has been instrumental in shaping my portfolio on both the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX) and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
During the challenging period of the Donald Trump tariff war in April 2025(Black days of massive sell off) my portfolio faced significant losses, and I had no new funds to invest. I took a step back, and focused on the local market. Today, days after my birthday, I decided to review my portfolio, and I was pleasantly surprised to see it had recovered from a loss of $22,000 to a gain of over $19,000. I also noticed that my portfolio had surpassed the $100,000 mark, a milestone that indicates a diversified portfolio can rebalance itself even without new investments.
The old adage "Sell in May" seems outdated, as investors now prioritise fundamentally healthy companies and adopt a long-term approach. As the saying goes, "Never kill the goose that lays the golden egg." The principle of delay gratification 👍.
My portfolio's growth from bar $116 to over +$19,000 (May 1st 2024 to 1st May 2025) in gains is a testament to the power of long-term investing. A similar trend is evident in my NGX portfolio, where the gains appear sustainable.
I believe that long-term investing triumphs over short-term gains.
To fellow investors, I say, stay committed to your strategy and focus on the fundamentals (If marrying the fundamental is possible, don't hesitate)
May our investments continue to flourish, and may we reap the rewards of our hard work, and may the fruit of Tinubunomics reforms (T-pain) turn to T-gain in our lifetime. Amen.

oyewole123:
Same here … I have not received Zenith dividend yet … I believe the next step is to email/call veritas to find out what the issue is

Agbalowomeri:
Serious o, these consumer companies are set to outperform the market especially NASCON and NB. This is from my FA instinct

emmanuelewumi:
UBA dividend received

yMcy56:
If we look at the population and the growth of Fintech in recent times, they may still have more headways.
Also, strategies differs
Long leg differs
Management matters, and
Being listed should give them some edge too.
Just my opinion.

nosa2:
Some clowns will Sha buy

vanvickie:
Primary market auction calender...

megawealth01:
ARADEL is too expensive at current price in my own rating

emmaodet:
The whole oil and gas industry is really experiencing a cut back in finance and budget.
Many oil rigs don't run night shifts again, just day duty alone thereby dropping half workers.
Even ports have reduced so many workers and night crew and few and in some areas, none.
I observed this at kizomba alpha, bravo at block-15 at Soyo, Angola, same in Luanda sonils port, likewise cabinda.
From Congo to Gabon to Nigeria, the story is the same.
Honestly, being in the industry, I am not really bullish on the long term of the industry.

vanvickie:
Yes, it did, however, I do not have the rates...

currentprice:
2025 year Big fish searching..... activated

May God help us

_{^{back to my hole}}

Mpeace:
You do not know what agreement Tinubu had with Wike that made him "deliver" Rivers state in the last election the way he did.
Having delivered in the last elections, be sure that Tinubu will want to retain Wike for the next election inespecially as it concerns Rivers and FCT

GeneralDae:
The truth is that if the president just watched and allowed the House of Assemblies impeach Fubara, that would have been more problematic.

Also, as a president you don’t cower to those blowing pipelines and issuing threats. You get firm else we are just a banana republic and the state would be surrendering her power to those people whose first response to the Supreme Court order was to threaten to blow the pipelines.

If the sponsors of the militants sense fear as a response to their threat, that’s the end. It would mean they have the power to always threaten or demand more. Other political sponsors would not hesitate to also use the militants against the president.

Tinubu understands these things having been in the political arena in Nigeria for long. To Tinubu, it wasn’t the militants speaking or issuing threats but their political sponsors testing the waters.

The appointment of the retired naval chief to head the state in response is a clear statement.

Agbalowomeri:
You will still get it cheaper

KarlTom:
Explosion on Trans-Niger Pipeline.

Operated by NNPC/Renaissance JV...