₦airaland Forum

I think Nigeria petrol ETF or something that is tracking petrol pump price should be listed on NGX. We are missing opportunities here

Sunrisepebble:
The price is rallying due to the impending NGX listing, at time of the dividend announcement it was a 4% yield but that was also influenced by the announcement

What is the likely listing price?

Sunrisepebble:
Aradel at N6,200 now, full bid. He that hath ears to hear, let him hear. Better get in before the shares dilution, do not miss it.

The price is too high compared to their last year dividend.

modupeshow:
Sir please come and buy shares 😭😭🤣🤣

If you go sell am for N10, we will buy

Providus H1 result.

Slight decrease from 2023 but they have gone far in growth compared to 2022.

megawealth01:
Why did you backout?

Regulation...

Omooloriredade:
I wish I had an answer for you. However, a successfully recapitalised bank should fetch a premium to the value of the old bank. Reason for that is that negative equity is wiped, debt paid off and balance is used as Tier-2 capital. Please don't get me wrong. I'm not suggesting Unity bank shareholders will be worse off post-merger, of course not. My point is that Providus, a relatively new private bank on the scene is getting the better deal. Providus shareholders are the ultimate winners based on the merger ratio reported. CBN has given us an indication of how it values Unity bank in comparison to Providus. Why didn't they just bail out Unity separately?

Also note that, the enlarged entity will tap the market/existing shareholders/institutions for extra funds to meet the recapitalisation requirement. There may well be a SP pump post merger......wait is it going to be listed?

I hope I'm well understood. I wouldn't celebrate the merger but wait to see how it pans out except you already knew CBN had flagged the financial state of the bank and you're now relieved the worst is behind you. Then happy days ahead. I don't believe Unity bank shareholders will lose money. I question the merger ratio.

If I have managed to dribble my way out of answering your question directly, no vex o.

I guess this is how CBN rationalized it. I have a bank that wants to upgrade their license. I also have another with a national license that is about to go under, a bank that I have bailed out before, which means they need a new management and strategy. Since this new bank seems to be efficiently managed, why not combine the two, one would have the national license while the other will stay afloat with new management.

unite4real:
Wema Bank is the pioneer of fintech banking in Nigeria with ALAT since 2017.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www./overview-fintech-evolution-nigeria-samuel-muoto&ved=2ahUKEwjF9PPm0u6HAxWVUkEAHUgOKEEQjjh6BAgdEAE&usg=AOvVaw3yNTYZxSeFevZqKdYA1Opr

As at then Alat was a B2C (Business to customer) while that of Providus is B2B (business 2 business). Then, with Alat, customers open limited digital account with Wema without owning a direct account with the bank. For Providus, they onboarded fintech partners with super agent licenses like Monnify who then onboarded smaller agents like Fairmoney who now service individual customers depending on their products. I know this because I initially wanted to float a fintech product.

Omooloriredade:
Providus bank was delisted on 21-03-2022 according to the NASD website.
Reason for delisting - converted to a private Limited Liability Company.

Thanks for the update. They are most likely going to be listed on the exchange.

ojesymsym:
Most of the things you are saying here also applies to Wema Bank that is if they are not better with the digital banking component of their banking.

Wema bank came into the picture when Providus temporarily shut down their NIP services to the fintech partners due to too many fraud related issues with fintech. Fraudsters were opening accounts using victims' details without their knowledge on the fintech platform due to poor regulatory framework from CBN and moving funds with them. I remember the incident vividly on twitter because all fintech customers could not make transfers then. Monnify had to issue a public statement and switched to Wema bank. By the time Providus revamped the service, they had already switched to Wema. So I am correct when I say they are the pioneer. Wema took advantage of a situation to play in that space. What Wema bank had then as a digital product was Alat which is quite different.

.

megawealth01:
What's the current value of PROVIDUS?

Providus is a growth stock. One of the innovative bank that transformed from a mortgage bank in 2016 with a regional license. They are listed on NASD and I have been trying to buy their shares a while back cos I see them going far because of their innovation and strategy. They can be said to be digital bank in Nigeria. They were the pioneers of fintech integration to banks in Nigeria. While many people were opening fintech accounts, they were actually banking with Providus because their funds were digitally housed and settled in the bank. Great number of fintech partners including major ones like Monnify, Jumia, Fairmoney, Bet9ja (CFO is related to Bet9ja owner) etc were integrated to the bank. The integration boosted them with good liquidity at clearing house and they broke even in 2019. Since then they have been in profit unlike some of their mates. They made around N8Billion in 2022. But their cost to income ratio is high due to expansion drive. Going by their books they couldn't have been able to purchase Unity.

I guess the merger was strategic for them because instead of paying to upgrade their license to national they killed two birds with one stone with the help of CBN.CBN also pumped in bailout funds of over N600Billion to clear Unity bank obligations. If owning a share of Unity bank means automatically becoming a shareholder of Providus, I will grab it immediately. Imagine a bank that broke even just 3 years after they started and by 2022 was making profit that is about 42% of what Sterlingbank that have been in the business for long made in the same year. That is aggressive growth and I want to be part of it. Their niche used be the affluent and HNIs while they serve retail through fintech. I guess they have changes now since they are going national.

aj8:
Common Sense Strategy for Total Energies. Target is N480.00 minimum and if by x5 of EPS = N600 . Hence range is N480-N600. Still has at least 10% upside from current price based on EPS x 4. However if they pay dividends of more than N30.00 , price may attain the upper limit of the range.

The current price is N427.70. Still has about 10% + from lower of the range.

I get it now. I thought the 4 represent current quarter cycle and only multiplied by 2. Thanks for the patience.

aj8:
1. Do you think this system works on other stock markets like say the US? …I have only tried it on the Nigerian Stock Market. Has worked for me for over 20 years. DO NOT APPLY TO ANY OTHER MARKET OTHER THAN THE NGX. I do trade on NASDAQ but limited to Biotechnology where I can apply my medical knowledge. For this, I simply put up notifications on Yahoo Finance to jump in at support for selected companies with huge prospects and FDA catalysts like PDUFA news, etc. The chances of being profitable increase by buying at the right price. And again, no profit is profit until taken and banked.

2. Do you use it to buy to hold or to buy and sell when the time is right.?…..Can work with either. It’s all about buying at the right price. See it more like buying a shirt at a supermarket. Of course, you would like to buy it when the shirt is on sale. Stocks likewise are sometimes on “sales” e.g. when bad news strikes, or simply when the price dips. Look for support and police that point for buy market reactions. Volume most times ticks up if it hits a point that the market perceives as a good entry point. Also when the eps suggests that the stock is grossly undervalued like what I term Common Sense Strategy…buy! I sincerely hope my response helps. Be profitable.

I tried your common sense formular on Total using the current half year EPS. The entry price calculated is N96 which is far below the current price which I think is a good entry price. help me confirm if my calculation is correct. H1 EPS is N60.

SonofElElyonRet:
Thinking of selling a large chunk of my Transcorp Power shares at a discount via a cross deal. About 10,000 units. Any serious buyer can make me an offer and I'll decide if its good enough.. if i accept your offer, you'll have to deal with my stockbrokers who are based in Lagos... send in your bids if interested 😁

N100 per share. Instant payment

Streetinvestor2:
Tony and ucap you guys can do it.The target should be #25 and above.Tony when you are done you move to transcorp plc

I think something else is cooking in UCAP. The staff are buying the stock in droves.

KarlTom:
Does anyone know the QD or/and PD for CORNERSTONE?

Their H1 result is over fantastic. Immediately I saw it I knew I had to go in.

Streetinvestor2:
It is obvious you work in that sector or with mtn.The day mtn decides to leave or government kick them out.That same day you will see plenty that are ready to take over.I don't mind it being Asians or Indians coming in.The SA don't wish nigeria good for anything. They are enemies within which is the worst kind of enemy to live with in this present nigeria economy. They don't wish our economy to surpass theirs that is why mtn is draining our forex to sa instead of reinvestment here.

Everything I said is public knowledge. I am just an investor. I keep hearing draining forex. What percentage of forex exported from the country in a year goes to SA? How much of your forex are your politicians exporting? Interpol reported it's hundreds of thousands flown out every hour. Other international companies that reinvested theirs, what happened to them?

Has Tinubu signed this bill?

SonofElElyonRet:
No one is indispensable .. there will always be a way. Na den u go know say money bags are always ready for acquisition...

To purchase their shares at today's price you will need over N3Trillion Naira. They will also likely sell it at a premium. You will also need roughly about N2Trillion to start running it. How much is Nigeria's budget again?

Mankind2024:
Oh, ye defenders of MTNN, you forgot to mention the truth - that MTNN is now being run on depositor loans taken from Nigerian banks despite the huge revenue figures. Where were you when MTNN siphoned $15 billion from the Nigerian economy? Nigeria did not collapse. Nothing will happen; no one is indispensable. MTNN remains a forex guzzler. I have never seen a company that loves our forex reserves like your beloved MTNN.
Long stories change nothing. I accept the truth that MTNN is undesirable yet unavoidable.

Bro I am not defending MTN. You are dispersing incorrect information regarding the company and I am simply correcting them. Is running on depositor loans taken from Nigerian banks a bad thing? I would argue it is the opposite instead because they pay interests on those loans, which means generation of income for the banks, depositors and tax collectors. That the Nigerian banks choose not to distribute the income to the real owners of the money is not MTN's fault. Out of all the banks I have account with, only FirstBank pays me interest on my savings account. The rest just use my money and then pocket the interest. Besides, if you understand how telecommunication's operational environment, you would know that no individual or group of individuals can provide the kind of cash they need to run the business, hence their reliance on loans.

As for the 54Billion dollars, I don't know where you got the figure. Are they repatriated over period? How long is the period? Is if for dividends or payment of liabilities or both?

Nigeria will collapse if MTN collapses because 80% of businesses, homes, government parastatals, telecom providers and over 70Million individuals depend on MTN infrastructure for their daily operation. Who will absorb such number and with what infrastructure?

KarlTom:
0%

Eh! Person wey dey follow you done miss road o

Mankind2024:
MTNN has no justification for declaring any form of loss. They generated more revenue than some banks in Nigeria. This was a deliberate move by this Nigeria-based company, notorious for draining the country's Forex reserves.

I don't agree. MTN is a goldmine. Their issue is not peculiar to MTN alone. It affects the entire industry. Look at the Airtel Nigeria financials (Not the group) and you will notice similar trend. If others publicly publish theirs, you will see it as well. I will attempt to breakdown what the issues are and then you can make your own decision:

1. Colocation contracts: In order to prevent proliferation of masts across the county, the government mandated that telecom providers should stop erecting masts and colocate with others. So as to comply, the companies sold their masts entered into long term contract with the dominant TowerCo (IHS) at the time and the payment was charged in dollars. I think IHS played a fast one on them here. Now, most of them are scrambling to get out of the contracts.

2. Forex scarcity: Almost all the equipment, support, maintenance procured in the industry is imported and therefore heavily reliant on forex. For instance, to rollout 5G requires millions of dollars in CAPEX because to a large extent you have to redesign or replace equipment, which is why there is a slow down in the rollout now and indigenous companies can't compete. During Emefiele's tenor, the industry could not access forex to purchase equipment and services. What they did was that their Group and sister companies helped purchase some of those equipment for them and recorded them as liabilities in their books. They also used LCs that are backed by restricted cash balances in Naira. These LCs were not also settled because of the forex scarcity. When Naira was devalued last year, they took advantage of the increased liquidity to settle most of those LCs at a very huge cost, which they recognized in their books. I believe this is also the reason the indigenous ones have very poor service. There is no group or sister companies to support them with Forex for procurement of necessary equipment.

3. Diesel cost: Vastly all their data centers, masts and other infrastructure run on generators and you know the price of diesel now.

4. Regulatory bottlenecks: Despite all the operational cost, the industry cannot increase their tariff cost like other industries without the regulatory approval. Their tariff has remained the same in the past 10 years and the regulatory is yet to grant them the approval to increase it. Yet, this same regulatory charge them exorbitant prices for the purchase and maintenance of spectrum licenses.

In conclusion, imagine the future where they have effectively tackled these issues, which they are currently doing. Where do you think they will be. Also, given the size and importance, MTN is now a national treasure and security. Do you know what a collapse of MTN would mean to Nigeria? You cannot nationalize such a business because the government lack the skills and capacity to maintain it. You can see what they did with MTEL. Even indigenous ones are struggling.

Caveat: I am heavy in MTN.

KarlTom:
I am not good with TA/FA/SA.



You can refer to this post by BB or contact him for entry points...

What is your level of certainty regarding the rumors?

ositadima1:
You want to commit more money to a company that has clear issues? This looks more like an emotional move to me. If I were you, even if I wanted to average down, I would wait to see positive financials or corporate disclosure. Even if a merger is planned, how do you merge a company that is carrying negative equity? It will surely significantly reduce the controlling ratios of DS (I maybe very wrong).

Anyway, Mcy56 said the loss has already been priced in. The experts have spoken, sha.

it was an emotional investment in the first place. Normally I invest in stocks with at least >=10% dividend yield. I was averaging up on DS because of the merger. I still believe in the merger and will average down like Ogg advised...

KarlTom:
It is well...

Soon...

Thanks for the comfort. So I should average down?

SonofElElyonRet:
Jeremiah 30:7 'Alas! for that day is great, There is none like it; And it is the time of Jacob's, sorry Dangote's distress, But he will be saved from it." i hope the bolded happens soon for your sake and gina's

Willie2015:
Dey calm down...
Nestle & MTN had the same issues...
some quarters back...
But they are still holding up..

My brother, if you see the loss in value you sef no go calm down. I am also in MTN but I am not in a loss and that's different.

PETERiCHY:
DANGOTE SUGAR made a HUGE LOSS of 144B in their Q2 2924 results compared vs 28B loss they made in Q2 2023.

SHARPEN your CUTLASSES and WAIT for it @ circa #10

BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Chai. Na serious haircut this stock dey give person. Already down by 34% loss. I wonder how low it will go from here. By the way, someone mentioned to expected good news on Dangote foods soon.

Streetinvestor2:
The results from OKOMUOIL is still good based on H1.i was thinking the insecurity they are facing was going to hit them hard though the first quarter in isolation is better than the second quarter. I guess they are handling the insecurity well.
And for APR i was expecting the bonus in near future but not this yr since the OS is just 2B.i wast expecting it when eps begin to hit like #1.50 for the yr.
Tony it looks you are considering your shareholders as per the hunger in the land.And to make cash available for them to pick uba RI too

Will it be a good buy at current price of 9.35 given the bonus?

SonofElElyonRet:
It does not belong to oando. No evidence to that effect. Don't even think its an oil refinery or blending plant.. whoever alleges or asserts bears the burden of proof... those saying it belongs to Oando should adduce evidence!

They didn't say it belonged to Oando. They said Wale and other board members are majority shareholders of the company. However, if it means more revenue for Oando, I don't have a problem with it.

Hogwarthtrades:
Chances of repealing this bill or fighting this in court is very slim. The banks have no choice but take this sucker punch for the team. if the populace could bare sharp increase in cost of living from subsidy removal and readjustment of currency rate, onetime shakedown of banks Forex sharp practice by IRS is not ideal but understandable. 30% leftover is enough to work with for re-investment.

A cynical view of the 70% levy been misappropriated is valid, hopefulyl it's allocated to capital infrastructural development for the good of the populace.



Slowly but surely this new Abbey mgt group is working, more gas in the cylinders available to fire for rapid growth in it's space. It's a marathon not a sprint.

It is double taxation. They have already been taxed 30% CIT and part of it is from foreign exchange gain. The tax has also been paid already. You can't make a tax law and then apply it retrospectively.