https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=orL5GXO0fqg

The core functions of the CBN are not different than any other in the EU, UK, USA, Asia, etc. Perhaps you may have to open the link:

https://www.cbn.gov.ng/AboutCBN/

to understand that monetary policy formulation and price stability is the No. 1 goal. Regulating financial institutions is definitely part of the responsibilities and that is why you have a Deputy Governor for FSS charged with accomplishing that. Any banker can lead that directorate. Central Banks (or Federal Reserve in some countries) have similar functions all across the world and it is typical to appoint experts with a strong monetary policy background to lead the bank. That most Nigerian leaders appoint retired bankers does not shift the core functions of the CBN away from monetary policy formulation and price stability to only regulating financial institutions. It is a tradition that we need to do away with.

This tradition is akin to going in for a brain surgery and the doctor that is assigned to perform the surgery on you tells you he is a gynaecologist. Both are doctors and experts but in different fields.

Gajagojo:

What is the definition of

Economist?

Is there any universally acknowledged and accepted definition?
Is any person with a Bsc in economics an economist ?

At any rate it is clear your understanding of what the CBN of Nigeria does or the job of the governors is limited

The CBN in Nigeria regulates banks and financial institutions.

That is not the case everywhere
Regulatory function is often separated from monetary function e.g.
in
The European Union
The United kingdom
The United States

Combining the two into one body means we have an institution that is very different from many others . That is discussion for another thread.
Even if that were not the case There is no logical basis to conclude that an "economist" whatever that means is the best person to head the central bank. Even so called economists never agree on what should be done often advising opposing courses of action. Reflecting the reality that they are not involved in mathematics but a social and political enterprise

Apart from being "traditional" you have not given any reason why an economist would down better job as CBN governor than a lawyer ,politician or doctor.
It is an assumption with no objective basis

This tradition of nominating retired bankers to lead the CBN is not the best way to go. In most of the leading economies, the tradition is to nominate an economist with deep knowledge, expertise, and experience in monetary policy, normally a well-grounded economist ideally with a Ph.D. in Economics, and some private and/or academic experience. The only exception was former President Obasanjo who appointed Prof Charles Soludo, a PhD economist. Retired bankers can make good ministers for finance and not CBN governors.

Until any Nigerian president embraces the reality that managing the complexities of the macroeconomy requires an expert we will continue to see a Central Bank that is derailed from its core duties and unduly influenced by powerful politicians and senior bankers and bureaucrats.

If we really want to grow and move forward just as most countries are progressing, we need to start to do things the right way. Growth and progress at the individual and entity level is a result of consistent and cumulative decisions taken over time most of which are right.

This tradition of nominating retired bankers to lead the CBN is not the best way to go. In most of the leading economies, the tradition is to nominate an economist with deep knowledge, expertise, and experience in monetary policy, normally a well-grounded economist ideally with a Ph.D. in Economics, and some private and/or academic experience. The only exception was former President Obasanjo who appointed Prof Charles Soludo, a PhD economist. Retired bankers can make good ministers for finance and not CBN governors.

Until any Nigerian president embraces the reality that managing the complexities of the macroeconomy requires an expert we will continue to see a Central Bank that is derailed from its core duties and unduly influenced by powerful politicians and senior bankers and bureaucrats.

If we really want to grow and move forward just as most countries are progressing, we need to start to do things the right way. Growth and progress at the individual and entity level is a result of consistent and cumulative decisions taken over time most of which are right.

This tradition of nominating retired bankers to lead the CBN is not the best way to go. In most of the leading economies, the tradition is to nominate an economist with deep knowledge, expertise, and experience in monetary policy, normally a well-grounded economist ideally with a Ph.D. in Economics, and some private and/or academic experience. The only exception was former President Obasanjo who appointed Prof Charles Soludo, a PhD economist. Retired bankers can make good ministers for finance and not CBN governors.

Until any Nigerian president embraces the reality that managing the complexities of the macroeconomy requires an expert we will continue to see a Central Bank that is derailed from its core duties and unduly influenced by powerful politicians and senior bankers and bureaucrats.

If we really want to grow and move forward just as most countries are progressing, we need to start to do things the right way. Growth and progress at the individual and entity level is a result of consistent and cumulative decisions taken over time most of which are right.

With the exception of Uganda which was colonized by Britain, it appears these were former French colonies. Something does not look right here.

Are we this poor? Hell No! Nigeria is like a profligate rich man spending his wealth on concubines and wasteful indulgence leaving his family with crumbs and struggling to make ends meet...Very sad!

Are we this poor? Hell No! Nigeria is like a profligate rich man spending his wealth on concubines and wasteful indulgence leaving his family with crumbs and struggling to make ends meet...Very sad!

Dreal1247:
Do we believe them?

Believe them at your peril...

Sammy07:


Lol. Voting is the problem bro.

Tabulations is never the problem.

In my polling unit, ward, and Ratech.

We make use of Excel. we've already put the formulas and recorded it ourselves. I we only transmit them to our SPO
though other wards na manual dem use.

It is because they want to rig, that's why you think tabulating is difficult or is our problem

You may be right to some extent but I still believe election results tabulation and transmission is a problem, else we should have results available in a very short time after votes are cast. What is available are uploaded pictures of results for all pooling units. Rather, after the results are uploaded into the BVAS, the public should be able to see the summary or total of votes for the candidates beyond the polling unit. At the least, we should see the total at the local government level if not the state level and this is what I am talking about.

Sammy07:


Lemme tell you the honest truth.

It will take hundred of years before we can make use of electronic voting.

It's not as if we can't do it. But we gave to consider some factors

1. More than 70% of Nigerians are illiterate

2. No working economy

3. No basic amenities like stable light

4. Many villages in Nigeria don't even have networks.

5. We don't have database of all Nigerian citizens. It will take hundred of years to do that.

If you've been to Niger state.
In Niger state, majority of some towns and villages, they don't even know where their local government starts or Ends.

It's toooooooooo big with scanty villages.

And that's how it is in Northern Nigerian.

The BVAS system as it is currently outputs pictures of uploaded results, not raw numbers. It becomes difficult to use any web API to pull the data or other forms of ML/AI technology so tabulation of results is a very difficult manual process for anybody or an organization to do.

And who says we cannot adopt electronic voting in addition to the current manual system for those who have access to the internet? Voting is not the problem though, but election results tabulation. So, the focus of this post is not about how we vote but how votes are tabulated and made available for public consumption.

Sammy07:


Lemme tell you the honest truth.

It will take hundred of years before we can make use of electronic voting.

It's not as if we can't do it. But we gave to consider some factors

1. More than 70% of Nigerians are illiterate

2. No working economy

3. No basic amenities like stable light

4. Many villages in Nigeria don't even have networks.

5. We don't have database of all Nigerian citizens. It will take hundred of years to do that.

If you've been to Niger state.
In Niger state, majority of some towns and villages, they don't even know where their local government starts or Ends.

It's toooooooooo big with scanty villages.

And that's how it is in Northern Nigerian.

You may have to read between the lines. There was nowhere I mentioned online voting. What I said is an electronic tabulation of results which the BVAS is also built to do but the entire system can be enhanced.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/30/americas/brazil-election-polls-open-intl/index.html

The Brazillian election system is arguably one of the best in terms of who can vote and the speed of getting election results. Two key things stand out: speed and who can vote.

I followed the presidential election results online on Google last 4 weeks and barely 3 hours after the polls closed, the results were out. The speed is breathtaking and faster than any large democracy I know. You only need to refresh your Google browser to watch how the results were unfolding. The run-off election is taking place as I type this and you can verify this today.

In addition, all adults 17 - 70 years are required to vote, meaning it is mandatory.

We need our national assembly to change laws for us to go fully electronic in election results tabulating beyond just BVAS. Don't forget Brazil has over 150 million eligible voters. I also think voting should be mandatory in Nigeria so we don't sit and wait for others to vote only to criticize when the wrong leaders are voted into office.

Are these former military generals and northern oligarchs still relevant in modern day Nigerian politics? How many votes can they give Atiku? What's their followership? We were told Bukola Saraki was their preferred candidate alongside Aminu Tambuwal and Bala Mohammed coming third according to their votes, yet with their so called support these candidates didn't win because primary elections are determined by the state governors not by some generals or oligarchs or cabal.

The political horizon is gradually shifting away from the grip of these so called former generals and oligarchs. Atiku does not need their support to win. He is facing a formidable candidate and political general which implies he needs to play the match as if his very existence depended on it because BAT might pull a win if Atiku thinks it's the usual campaign and politicking. He needs to build strong alliance with personalities who command strong followership and communicate his message properly to the electorate.

The 2023 election will be very interesting to follow because the incumbent is not on the ticket and it's a fight between a tiger and a lion (no idea who is stronger) and we hope PMB does not interfer in the elections just as he did in the primaries. The race can go either way: Atiku or Tinubu. At this point I can't see any third force.

This significantly captures the history of how the presidential flag bearer of the ruling party has always been chosen and who eventually has won in the general election.

I have written earlier on this platform how the most popular and most powerful has always lost out citing the case of Alex Ekwueme and Peter Odili as examples. I cannot agree more with the writer. Perhaps, the power brokers at any point in time are never comfortable with an imposing personality, rather going for somebody they think they can exercise some level of influence.

I will not be surprised if history repeats itself. Will it be different this time? No one can be sure. We are curious and watching.

tunjijones:


Was Buhari not on the ballot in 2011 against Jonathan? How come he didn't win.

North can not win the pool alone unless they form alliance with either South West or South South.

South East no too get mouth for election in this country. And with ipob and kanu still in prison, the turn out of South East wld even be worse than 2019.

While I agree with your last two sentences, don't forget in 2011 Buhari still pulled significant votes but not enough to defeat Jonathan. In 2015 the coalition with the SW was critical to his winning. I absolutely agree you need a coalition to win.

2023 will be a bit complex. If the PDP presents a southern candidate, they will need a very popular candidate from the north as a running mate to get some of the northern votes. On the other hand, if they field a popular northern candidate as the flag bearer, they will secure a good chunk of the northern votes but may face backlash in the south. So, it may come down to fielding a candidate that will lose the least votes. The APC is also in a very difficult situation and under pressure to retain power. A mistake can cost them the election.

Given Buhari holds sway in the NW which has the largest chunk of votes and also has a decent following in the NC, the APC should consider seriously whoever PMB adopts as he only needs to campaign with the candidate to sway his mammoth supporters in the north. If they fight him and push a candidate he doesn't endorse, they may struggle in the general election as he may decide not to be actively involved in the campaigns and that may not go well for the APC. He is almost completing his second term and doesn't have much to lose so why bother to be involved in the campaign if his party refuses his candidate (an average person will not think differently). I think he may have his way just he did for the party chairmanship inspite of the noises before the convention.

It appears no candidate from the NW may flag either the APC or PDP ticket, so we may not expect as large a turnout from the NW in 2023. That turnout was driven by PMB who had a cult following in that region. No matter who PMB endorses, the turnout may not be as large this time around.

The PDP may have an upper hand if the APC makes the mistake in who flags its ticket. A key consideration for the APC should not be the most popular in the party, but rather who is widely accepted and can go on to win the general election. I'm not sure if there is any credible poll for the APC but speaking from sentiments I would think Osinbajo remains the strongest candidate even against an Atiku/Obi ticket though he still needs to be able to extricate himself from the government in his messages and campaigns which will be a tough job but not impossible.

The PDP is supposed to have an upper hand in this coming election for several seasons. First, Buhari is not on the ticket. Second, the economy is in bad shape. Third, insecurity is clearly a big issue. Fourth, they can field a popular candidate from the north and capture huge voter numbers.

Given the above reasons, the APC is in a vulnerable position and needs to get it right, else they will lose the election.

467 responses is too small a sample to draw valid conclusions or generalizations.

Besides, we would like to see the demographics of the participants in terms of age, sex, region or participants' geopolitical region, tribe, education, state, religion, income level, geographic location, party affiliation etc.

Basic statistics teaches that to avoid sample bias you need not only have a reasonable sample, but you also need to sample across demographics as highlighted above so the sample represents the population, in this case, Nigeria. Then, you can draw valid conclusions.

While I'm not ruling out the conclusions of the survey, the pollster could have done a better job using standard rules of polling.

AKAyomide:

I hope so! All that will need is a candidate to give us a good government not to unite the nation because the national peace of the nation is very negotiable but to create a strong economy base for all to get our daily breads with easy mind. Great Ecinomo!

Whoever emerges from the APC needs to place the economy and security as priorities as quite frankly, the APC government has never had the economy as priority and that partly explains why unemployment rate has been rising unchecked. If people are struggling and can't find jobs and the state of the economy is harsh, it will make fighting insecurity a difficult task as a ready pool of candidates will willingly join all sorts of agitation and insurgency to destabilize the country.

Between Osinbajo and Amaechi whom the odds seem to favor to pick the APC ticket, I'm not sure any of them is capable of fixing the economy to be quite frank. The PDP on the other hand appear to be always focused on the economy in spite of perceived weakness in other areas. All the more reason why the APC needs to put their best foot forward else the PDP may just win considering the nation is drifting. Ideally, the APC ought to be punished by the electorate in the 2023 elections but as humans most times we are not rational but sentimental.

While I am not sure about the veracity of the mystery claim around his age, state of origin and education, most of what the writer stated are basic facts.

For the purpose of analysis, let's assume there are no issues with his age, education and state of origin, basic political analysis reveals he may not secure the APC ticket.

First, the president influences the choice of the flag bearer for the ruling party. Therefore, despite being the most popular candidate, BAT may not get ticket if PMB has a preferred and different candidate. Going back in time, ask Alex Ekwueme who lost out to OBJ in 1999 despite being the most popular candidate and a founding member of eminent and powerful Nigerians known as the G33 (not exactly sure of that no) that later metamorphosed into the PDP. Ask Peter Odili who was so popular and powerful having visited every state, consulted and built a winning political machine and could not be stopped even by OBJ but only by Ribadu, then EFCC boss on the nite of the primary in 2007 after Ribadu presented damning evidence of corruption in Rivers State as governor. Eventually, the late Yar'Adua was chosen instead.

So for those of you who think the ticket always goes to the most popular in the ruling party, think twice. This may be the case for an opposition party that wants to capture political power but for the ruling party, the president is a big influencer. In addition, if the Northern oligarchs or ruling cabal from the north are not comfortable with a candidate they can pressure PMB.

The decision about choosing a party flag bearer for the ruling party is a complex one. Aside from picking a candidate who can go on to win the general election, a lot of interest groups are involved in this scheme and horse trading.

The message is who PMB, the cabal (decision makers in APC) prefer will emerge, not who is the most popular.

bahaushe1:


I am sure you are not a novice in politics. They will produce a consensus candidate that will be 'ratified' by delegates at the convention.

True! This is how politics is done mostly in Nigeria. The moment the party decides who the flag bearer is, they ask delegates to vote for the person at the convention.

JustExposeIt:
I thought this man said he will go home and rest after 2023?

Maybe he is the chosen one. We don't know yet. In about 60 days, we will know.

BlazinGlory40:


The dangerous thing about this strategy is that if PDP succeeds with defeating APC with a northerner, when PDP would want to field a southerner APC will adopt this very same strategy to field a northerner. Then the cycle continues perpetually. People from the south who are celebrating it don’t see the long term danger of this strategy.

While your fears is a possibility, this is a gamble that can be a 2-edged sword. Either they win or they lose. Don't forget that OBJ won re-election in 2003 running against then Buhari as a candidate and Jonathan also won against Buhari in 2011.

APC only needs to present a candidate acceptable to most people. APC has a strong following in the North so with Pres Buhari and a host of other popular figures, I don't see PDP winning with a northern candidate. There's a high chance that most Southern votes will go to the APC and the northern votes can be split almost evenly.

This will be interesting to watch, though.

But this shouldn't be surprising to anybody who follows Nigerian politics keenly without clouding your thinking with emotions.

Aside the issues laid out in the article his candidacy will be tough to sell to Nigerians given he is from a minority group in the South and will more likely choose from another minority group from the north as running mate (a Christian from the north).

I don't think the APC is ready to gamble with his candidacy having been in power just for 8 years.

As usual, another surprising Yar'Adua from the South who is a Christian will be chosen as the consensus candidate. Who the person is, is what most of us are busy trying to conjecture. I will suspect an Osinbajo or an Amechi. Maybe he's even somebody outside the duo. Time will tell.

goshee:
In what ways is Osinbajo better than Obi?

I wouldn't say Obi is better than Osinbajo nor will I conclude that Osinbajo is a better candidate but each in my opinion is the best bet for their respective party.

kingscare1:
My top 7 presidential choice for 2023 and their choice significance in order:

1) Osibanjo (Best Choice)
2) Peter Obi (Good Choice)
3) Amaechi (Fair Choice)
4) Wike (Audacious Choice)
5) Tinubu (Best From The Worst)
6) Atiku (Northern Cabal Choice)
7) Tambuwal & Saraki (Worst Choices)

Spot on! If the APC wants to excite voter turnout and significantly increase their odds of winning, Osinbajo remains the top choice and the only strong challenger in the PDP is Peter Obi. But I feel the northern oligarchs and Buhari himself may prefer an Amechi over Osinbajo. Both (in APC) have not publicly indicated any interest but I know when the time comes, whoever is the preferred candidate will be made to pick the form.

I would think the north will be more comfortable with a SW politician who in their assessment is not an imposing or strong personality. Perhaps, if they can find a SS politician, they will not hesitate to throw their weight behind.

SlyDev:



I'm very happy to hear this, the good times is near

Just curious. Let's take out emotions from this discussion. BAT is a strong politician trying to make connections across the country. But between BAT and Osinbajo (or let's just throw in an Amechi), who do you think Buhari and the northern oligarchs will be more comfortable with to secure the APC ticket?

Well-spoken! Sometimes, the best way to predict the future is to look back when we are not sure. Look at the last APC convention last weekend. There was so much noise about consensus but the moment Pres Buhari voiced his preferred candidate, despite all the noise, everyone eventually queued behind. I will not be surprised if the same scenario repeats in the APC primaries for the presidential ticket. Buhari already has a preferred candidate but he is yet to reveal who this person is. While at this point Pres Buhari has kept the person close to his chest, I have a feeling this person may not be the most popular among the candidates.

BSdetective:


Lol..... anybody buhari backs in 2023 will get the support of the northern voters and everyone else would fall in line.....and you talk like buhari or those in the party really care about the party's survival; buhari, tinubu, ameachi and everyone in the party are all in for their own interest(and tribal interest), the party is just a vehicle to get what they want and once they get it the party can burn for all they care just like buhari has shown......the only interest they have is their personal interest.

Lol..... anybody buhari backs in 2023 will get the support of the northern voters and everyone else would fall in line.....and you talk like buhari or those in the party really care about the party's survival; buhari, tinubu, ameachi and everyone in the party are all in for their own interest(and tribal interest), the party is just a vehicle to get what they want and once they get it the party can burn for all they care just like buhari has shown......the only interest they have is their personal interest. [/quote]

[quote author=BSdetective post=111593997]

Well-spoken! Sometimes, the best way to predict the future is to look back when we are not sure. Look at the last APC convention last weekend. There was so much noise about consensus but the moment Pres Buhari voiced his preferred candidate, despite all the noise, everyone eventually queued behind. I will not be surprised if the same scenario repeats in the APC primaries for the presidential ticket. Buhari already has a preferred candidate but he is yet to reveal who this person is. While at this point Pres Buhari has kept the person closed to his chest, I have a feeling this person may not be the most popular among the candidates.