₦airaland Forum

rvp2018:
Quick look of 2021 local election in South Africa
https://elections.timeslive.co.za/results?type=1091&mapType=results
It appears to me that apart from Eastern and Western Cape where Afrikaans & colored are the majority; ANC pretty much dominate South Africa - and will continue for the forseable future. EFF has better chance that DAF - because it can grow it support - the white party has no prospect amongst the majority black. But hope springs eternal.

well obviously you did not look properly because the ANC only got 46% of the national vote, secondly the EFF didn't grow, they have reached their ceiling and their policies especially those on open borders has kept them from growing, ActionSA on the other hand only contested 6 municipalities... Only 6!! And it already got 2.5% of the national vote, the DA has recently lost white votes not black votes, neither is it a white party, simply looking at SAs demographics will prove that the DA isn't a white party you ignorantly call it, the DA has also done well in recent by elections and is currently controlling 4 of 7 major metros in Joburg, Tshwane,CT and Ekurhuleni.... They might have not grown in support but they have increased the number of metros they are controlling and they are doing very well at running those metros.

My predictions for 2024
ANC: 41%
DA:25%
EFF: 12%
ActionSA :7%
Others: 5%

Unless the EFF go into a coalition with the ANC which is very unlikely we will see a coalition government led by a DA president.

rvp20182:
I know English can be a little confusing but I meant these parties unite against ANC.Once ANC is no longer a threat.They have nothing to unite against or coalesce against.Therefore you get endlessly catfights.Parliamentary systems are a dime a dozen.Kenya runs on presidential system like Nigerian or the US.Totally different systems.South Africa post ANC domination will be like Europe .. very unstable gov without the sophistry of a developed world or a kingdom

No! What's confusing is that you think the ANC will dissappear after 2024....the fact is they will still be the largest party in SA, the opposition will still be united against the ANC until at least 2029.....what happens then is anybodies guess, either the ANC will be renewed under a new anti RET leader and will seriously challenge again in 2029 or will die a slow death if a RET leader is elected at the 2022(not likely) or 2027(very likely) national conference...

Imo if the ANC does fade into obscurity the two biggest parties in 2029 will the DA and ActionSA... Both have very economically progressive policies and either can lead SA to great things

rvp20182:
Withdraw ANC bogeyman such coalitions will not last.ANC is giving you stability but robbing you competent leadership.Small regional or tribal parties with secretarian interest will rob you stability.That is your future as parliamentary democracy in a divided country

the ANC aren't part of those coalitions my bru... Those coalitions are run successfully by opposition parties.

Also all three of South Africas major parties are led by people from minority ethnic groups, Cyril is venda, Julias is pedi and John is English.... Our political parties are not tribalistic in anyway, in fact the only party that one could consider are more a traditional ethnic party is the IFP... And how many votes did they get? In fact there are much more Zulus voting ANC and that voted for a Xhosa or Venda president than for an IFP candidate.

South Africa is not Kenya bru... Hence we don't rank as low as you in the fragility index

rvp20182:
Without ANC south Africa will go Kenya way ethnic and racial politics.We had KANU before and after competitive politics we went tribal completely.Democracy in heterogeneous society accentuate division.ANC might be corrupt & incompetent but it's holding together the fabric of South Africa black tribes . What might help is your parliament system but it will become very unstable because no part will command ANC figures..so it will be annual coalitions

my bru SA ain't Kenya... They ANC ain't holding anything together, we have already seen coalition governments successfully running SAs major metros like Tshwane, Joburg, Ekurhuleni ect ect

Excluding the IFP none of our parties identify with a certain ethnic group or tribe.... All three of South Africas biggest parties are led by people from minority ethnic groups, Cyril is venda, Julias is Pedi and John is english

rvp20182:
South Africa is hellhole of runaway crime, racial divide, unemployment, immigration and now ANC corruption.The political risk of meltdown or civil war is low but xenophobia and looting remain.Kenya as promising as it see remain one of most fragile nation on account of it's ethnic politics and corruption. South Africa last had a transition in 1994..real transition..the rest has been Tanzania or China type ANC.Kenya is therefore slightly ahead.ANC is likely to rule for your entire lifetime

cool story bro... The ANC has already lost just about every major metro and not once have we ever heard of vote rigging or unfair elections... Ever... In fact 95% of SAs believe our elections are fair and free... This is supported by WB research.

Secondly the ANC only got 45% in the previous elections.....they are polling less than 40% as we speak and basically losing and/or dropping significantly in every by election to date.... So yeah, they ain't going to be around after 2024 mate we ain't Kenya, you can't rig elections here... And as I said before our problems are mere blips, once the ANC is out of power SA will be on the path to becoming Africas South Korea

rvp20182:
I don't joke.This stuff that makes civil war.. deputy president has promised to do zuma on the exiting president..to investigate state capture by Kenyatta & moi families and the guy know Ruto doesn't joke either.Normally the gov would be controlling the election body but this time it's Ruto who does.So gov has little legroom in rigging except now brute force of seizing election technology.The numbers don't look good for them.So the only card left is to try sabotage the election and that what they are doing now.Ruto is going to respond to sabotage by waging war.

great!! So you admit Kenya is just another fvcked up African sh1thole

Say what you will about SA but our elections are one of the most fair and free in the world.....this is why our problems like load shedding and state capture are only blips in our history and said party will be voted out no questions asked

Funny enough as well is the fact that both Raila and Ruto are corrupt motherfvckers.... So it really doesn't matter who wins your country is fvcked either way.... At least in 2024 our most likely president doesn't have a single blemish to his reputation

rvp20182:
Kikuyu, Kenya political risk of a meltdown just increased.You might want to evacuate your love ones before it goes down.The economy unlike 2007 is limping so it won't survive a political crisis.It appears gov or uhuru aware that they losing are trying to sabotage the election.They know they are headed for a dog beating and then liquidation by Ruto.They don't have IEBC as Chair is Ruto guy and so are three other commissioners.This may go down into a civil war.Ruto is not one to backdown from a fight..he has crazy millions of young kalenjin warriors ready for war, Museveni and Salva kiir ready to assit.Within a week Kenya security forces will split into tribes.It could go down easily into civil war meltdown.We could join Ethiopia soon.Drunk Uhuru has to sober and realizes he has been beaten by smart Ruto.If he goes to ICC he will find Ruto lawyer Khan waiting for him.If you're in Kenya be careful this coming weeks and at least get a passport ready to escape to exile.https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-07-22-chebukati-police-confiscated-all-electronic-items-demanded-passwords-from-3-foreigners/

you joking right

Omofaye99:
According to Israeli report? Israel have been caught pants down falsifying reports, I don't believe any shit they say but the fact remains that an older s300 shotdown F16 fighter still stands.



Also straight from Syrian officials : "In 2020, Syrian military officials criticized the S-300 air defense systems supplied by Russia, saying they failed to protect Syrian sites from the Israeli strikes."






Was s300 used in Angola how



Please show me.

- luckily it isn't a game of what you believe or not

- i'm just quoting actual reports from Syrian officials and you are just stating your opinion.... See the difference

- unconfirmed reports they did....however I won't be hypocritical about it....Cuba,Angola and Russia did however deploy there most advanced SAMs systems at that time in Angola, unconfirmed reports state the S300 was deployed however nothing confirmed.

- Google fyi


P. S don't want to derail the thread to much... You are more than welcome to respond to this post of mine with your last reply...... But thanks for the debate bru much enjoyed

Omofaye99:
I am also talking about F16 been downed by older S200 Sam in Syria both Su35, Rafael and F16 are not stealth jet so S300 will rape them hard!!!!



report with no evidence common man



Are you sure...

- According to Israeli reports it was pilot error and not taking the right evasive action that caused it to be shot down... Also fighters have several counter measures, they don't need to be stealthy to avoid radar detection or to evade Sam's.

Also straight from Syrian officials : "In 2020, Syrian military officials criticized the S-300 air defense systems supplied by Russia, saying they failed to protect Syrian sites from the Israeli strikes."

- my bru how many impala were shot down in Angola?

- yes very sure

Omofaye99:
You actually overrate Egyptian jet like they are invincible.
Shooting down of Su35 jets defeat your argument already, because Ukraine have nothing better than S300 yet they shot it down the F16 have been shot down by older S200 in Syria Iran Bavar and different kind of SAMs ready to take out anything in it airspace.

And please show me where impala evade s300




I never said ballistic missile will sink a sub, but it will definitely sink a ship, and Iran has it Egyptian navy will bleed.




Egyptian airspace is not half protected has Iranian airspace.

And yes fight between them will never happen, we are just having fun.

- my bru we talking about 4.5 gen Rafael, Su35 and F16 vs old Soviet era SAM....have at least some logic!! And again not even Ukraine has not confirmed any Su35 being shot down

- I said there are reports of SAAF impala evading S300 I didn't say there is video evidence

- Egypt has more Sam systems and better radar coverage than Iran

Stormtrooper11:
Is it the same Isreal that destroyed Iraqi nuclear reactors you're talking about!!?!

People don't know Israel

Omofaye99:
You mean same s35 that are been shot down in Ukraine even f35 got hit by Syria s200 but Israel denied it which they are known for, mig29 are not invincible either they will be shot down by Iranian Sam systems. The f16 have not confronted s300 yet in combat, until it does..the f16 is not better and won't survive Iran airspace.

impala common I will shoot down those impala with Ak47 rifle



.
Egypt has no submarine armed with subsurface or ballistic missiles, Iranian subs will rape Egyptian subs samr with ships.



How will Egypt do that?

Iran can hit Egypt with a distance of 1000+km, Egypt on the other hand will have to fly close to Iran to achieve that and they will be overwhelm and shot down by Iranian SAMs.

-You act as if the S300 is some kind of juju weapon that can't be defeated, the reports of 2 Su35s being shot down by S300 are unconfirmed even by Ukraine itself....the S300 has failed many times and has been evaded by much less advanced aircraft like the Impala....Also let me just remind you that Iran doesn't have the latest version of the S300 like Egypt.

- you cant sink subs with ballistic missiles bru you need torpedoes or depth charges to do that!!

- Iran don't have nearly enough radar coverage or SAM systems to protect there entire airspace....be realistic bru!! however this is hypothetical since neither country poses the necessary power projection to invade one another.

Omofaye99:
Iran possess different kind of SAM including S300 and it home built Bavar missile similar to the S300.

Khordad missile defence can also intercept stealth jet and cruise missiles. Egypt jets won't survive Iran airspace.



Iran have Ships armed with antiship cruise missiles and are capable of confronting Egypt ships heads on, their subs are well armed with subsurface to surface missiles which will make Egyptian ships an easy prey the missile capability of Iran is enough to make Egypt think twice.



Iran won't nuke Egypt, they don't have nuclear warhead yet. But they can hit Egypt with ballistic missiles if there is war between both nation.

- Egypt have some of the most advanced fighters in the world including Rafael, su35, mig29m, f16s.... And the s300 is from the cold War, you think modern fighters can't beat the S300? There are even reports that old SAAF impala were able to stay undetected from the s300 just by flying low.

- i'm guessing you think Egypts ships and subs are unarmed hey? ..... My bru just Google Egypts fleet and then Google Irans fleet..... No comparison, Egypt has them beat in quality and quantity

- and then Egypt will bomb the sh1t out of them with there much more advanced Airforce

ivolt:
The fact that you used SA as an example shows how ignorant you are of international affairs.
SA did not develop nuclear weapons, Israelis were mostly behind it.

Moreover, if isolation is good, the apartheid which boast of highly skilled professionals will still be in charge of SA today.

In fact, a lot of struggle against apartheid involved pressuring the west to isolate them.
Every smart person knew that the apartheid was on its last leg when the west unanimously cut them off.

Cuba's regular propaganda is that America is not allowing it to develop due to isolation.

Another anti-globalization country is Zimbabwe, it has been ejected from the "world order" for decades
and ended up not being able to feed itself.

it was a joint program, both parties benefitted.... It is a well known fact that SA back then and now have some of the most advanced missile technology in the world.... Especially when it comes to seeker tech..... The icbm were based of the Israeli Gabriel however the Seeker and warhead was South African

kwametut:
Unmask yourself the only people who don't know you are those who Waste their time entertaining a fool like you. Everyone knows who you. Your spelling errors popp up and expose you sometimes. Fake Boer!

why do you come here and make us look bad bra

Omofaye99:
First no doubt that most of Iran military equipments are old, but when it comes to war Egypt got nothing on Iran..I mean nothing at all.

1. Egypt despite it modern fighters can't get 1km near Iran airspace without getting shot down.

2. Egypt clear lacks the navy power to go against Iran with ships and subs armed with antiship- cruise missile.

3. Iran have ballistic missiles with 2000km range that can hit Egypt, and Egypt have no counter for even cruise missiles.

How do you fight N enemy that can hit you without even getting close, while you are completely restricted from it own airspace.



But I may be wrong though.

1. How did you get to that conclusion?

2. How did you get to that conclusion?

3. Iran isn't just going to nuke Egypt... That would be suicide for them....please be realistic

You are wrong

kwametut:
Illiterate fool spotted Zimbo pls get tired of lying here about SA.

wtf are you even doing bru??

Exnavyboy62:
Although Egypt's equipments outnumber that of Iran's but yet Iran has its own ideginious weapons which puts them off the hook of lack of spare parts in a scenario of sanctions or arms embargo being placed unlike Egypt that imports almost all their weapons.

Speaking of modern weapons, they have; Iranian made Moudge class frigates, Bavar 373 SAM system, modern UCAVs, just to mention a few.

But all the same, Egypt and Iran butting heads is not likely to occur. Let's set our sight on a more probable Israel/Iran stand-off

- that is an advantage yes, however even their own systems are just recycled cold war era weapons

- The Moudge class frigate might be knew but it isn't modern and still uses very outdated systems, Iran have decent missile tech I would agree!!

- Israel will demolish Iran

Buschlaid:
Facts!

I'd say Iran is capable of making very impressive weapons and I wouldn't underestimate them. We cannot also say that either Egypt or Iran is stronger, because A) different doctrine and tactics (e.g. Iran puts a lot of emphasis on drones and ballistic missiles, something Egypt doesn't do as much and rather focuses on conventional weapon systems) B) luck (under this term I imagine a lot of things that are not entirely based on "luck", such as bad choices of enemy) C) different weapon system we often know little about because, and this might be surprising to many, most militaries keep specifications secretive. In fact look at Ukraine x Russia right now. No matter on whose side you are, you have to admit Ukraine is putting up hell of a fight for a country, that most predicted, would fall in 3 days. Contrary to this, many predicted Afghanistan would last a lot longer than it actually did. So unless this conflict happens, we might never know and let's hope we never find out. We can of course guess, but with questionable result.

However, despite Iran producing some weapon systems they mostly built on their own, majority of weapon systems come from abroad or are reverse engineered. For example tank force compromises mostly of T-72S tanks (export version of T-72B1), Safir-74 (T-55 with upgrades like 105mm gun, new engine and Kontakt-1 derivative ERA - i.e. something Egypt also did with T-55E MkII Ramses), Chieftains (upgraded with T-72 engine), M60 tanks... There are of course many prototypes like Karrar, T-72 Rakhsh (only in a few pieces in service) and Zulfiqar. None of which entered service in greater numbers or at all. And this is common phenomenon in many fields, where most of the equipment is license copy/reverse engineered/old and upgraded to some extent/prototype that didn't enter service. Of course I'm not denying that there is some very succesfull and mass produced fully Iranian equipment, like Safir Jeep or Mohajer-6 UAV.

On the other hand, Egypt is either procuring from abroad, building under license production (most of the quipment), upgrading old stuff or producing some of the local equipment, though only a portion compared to other approaches. Egypt is though, just like Iran, capable of producing some of the technologies/equipment on their own without any/with little help from outside.

- Iran makes frakenstein weapons out of left overs from old soviet and American systems, don't get me wrong it is impressive what they have been able to achieve wrt their defence industry despite sanctions however those weapons just by looking at them one can see they are not world beaters.

A) Actually its very easy to see that Egypt has the superior force not just in terms of quality but quantity as well.

B) ....

C) Don't know which people expected Ukraine would fall in 3 days but I for 1 didn't.....I've seen Russian tactics, weapons and Doctrine get Destroyed by much smaller forces during the border war

bjdon:
Please go and read your history. SA had a functional nuclear weapons programe in the 80's. They never tested a bomb, but they had all the components ready

See the below from Wikipedia
...
From the 1960s to the 1990s, South Africa pursued research into weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear,[2] biological, and chemical weapons under the apartheid government. Six nuclear weapons were assembled.[3] South African strategy was, if political and military instability in Southern Africa became unmanageable, to conduct a nuclear weapon test in a location such as the Kalahari desert, where an underground testing site had been prepared, to demonstrate its capability and resolve—and thereby highlight the peril of intensified conflict in the region—and then invite a larger power such as the United States to intervene......

Actually South Africa did carry out tests with Israel and had 12 complete bombs

Omofaye99:
Well Iran is self sufficient when it comes to military, Egypt on the other hand relies on import.

I am not using the global firepower rating.

Iran self sufficient? My bru all there major equipment is imported.... However only difference is Egypt has imported some of the latest and most advanced equipment on the market and Iran has mostly cold War era equipment that have been obsolete for decades..... They have 0 modern fighters(Mig29s are from the late 80s), 0 modern gunships, 0 modern tanks,0 modern artillery(besides the G5 which they only have 50), 0 modern ships..... They literally have nothing

P.s there tanks are frankenstein monsters, just old T72s mated to M60s....

Omofaye99:
Israel won't dare strike Iran, if they have the balls to do it they would have without ranting. They know the consequence that follows it heck they are waiting for Uncle Sam to give the green signal for a go ahead which will never happen.



Iran is not Egypt or Syria. it is far stronger that both nation. Iran will give Israel a bloody nose any day anytime.

Iran stronger than Egypt??

samorobo:
- like i said untill you deal with your power shiit i would sit my ass down to be lectured on anything in about power from a country like SA.

- yes.

- i'm pretty sure its negative , check again .

- we are dealing with it, hence we back to almost no loadshedding as we speak.

- nope

- see

samorobo:
yeah spelling error. Like i said go back to school and how to spell 6 letter words.

you can't spell Afrikaans so yeahhh...

samorobo:
No you are full of contradictions, Look in the mirror .

jezeez what a comeback

samorobo:
you said its yourself, 1.5m in a country of 200m. Now that doesn’t speak influence now does it?

only a small portion of your country actually has satellite TV bru.... And that market is dominated by DSTV

samorobo:
No one speaks afrikaan here, go back to School hol and stop heckling

Afrikaans not afrikaan....and you are the one going on about spelling

samorobo:
- it’s been going on for a while now(years). So until you fix it which I doubt don’t lecture me on permanence or it being short lived.

- yes.

- Are you sure.

- loadshedding is on off sometimes we have it but the majority of the time we don't.... You however are permanently in the dark

-nope

-positive

samorobo:
Except yours had a lot to do with spelling,go back to school sir.

no actually a typo my bru

samorobo:
Because they do,or would you deny that.

I for once think dangote can employ competent Nigerians in that position but well.
Anyway this case is different,they are employed not controlling. He can sack them whenever he likes. They work for him not the other way round.

this post is so full of contradictions it's actually fvcking sad

samorobo:
20m African subscribers is nothing close to the amount of global audience that is hinged on Nigerian content. Get off your high horse.[color=#006600][/color]

and yet you are one of the 20million that can't go without DSTV

samorobo:
No one told you to speak afrikaan.
That’s not typo error but spelling error. Go back to school.

My bru I constantly type in two languages....sometimes I type the word in Afrikaans spelling instead of English, especially if they are similar