₦airaland Forum

Parachoko:
I can still remember when Obi kicked the likes of Soludo out of APGA primary election cause he knows his candidate Obiano can't defeat Soludo in the APGA primary election

https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/142930-fresh-crises-in-anambra-as-apga-disqualifies-soludo-others.html?tztc=1

Obi single handedly imposed Obiano on APGA and Anambra State.

The governorship candidate of the Action Alliance (AA) in Rivers State, Dr. Dawari George, and his campaign organisation, the Bridge Campaign Organisation (BCO), have endorsed the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Mr. Peter Obi, for the February 25 election.

In a statement co-signed by George and Prof. Kiikpoye Aaron, in Port Harcourt Wednesday, the campaign director-general noted that prior to reaching the decision, a lot of issues were thrown up.

The BCO equally noted that it weighed the capacities of the leading candidates in the upcoming presidential election and the clarity of each candidate’s plans for the country.

The campaign organisation said: “Mr Peter Obi is distinguished as an experienced leader who has demonstrated his ability to create positive change in the lives of Nigerians.

“Ethnicity, religion and power rotation have topped the issues under consideration. Whether we consider ourselves, logical/rational or emotional/sentimental, these issues have occupied our thinking spaces significantly. Consequently, whatever we decide is informed by what these issues portend for us.

“For us in Rivers State, the decision on the direction we should go is impacted partly by these issues and by our understanding of equity and justice for our people. We believe that the concept of power rotation is an equitable and justifiable means of guaranteeing the inclusion of all parts of our country in determining the leadership of our nation.

“We also believe that by virtue of the multi-religious nature of the Nigerian society, political inclusion ought to accommodate members of different faiths in a relationship of mutual trust and singleness of purpose.

“Against the backdrop of these considerations, deciding who to support in Saturday’s presidential election, in the best interest of Nigeria and Rivers State becomes less ponderous. Having regard to the issues above, we are irresistibly and attractively drawn to Mr. Peter Obi for president. Consequently, we are endorsing his candidacy for president in the 2023 Nigerian general election.

“We do not deny that the other candidates boast experience. However, Mr. Peter Obi is distinguished as an experienced leader who has demonstrated his ability to create positive change in the lives of Nigerians.

“As Governor of Anambra State, he made significant strides in improving healthcare, education and infrastructure at reasonable costs. He communicates his plans with clarity, and boasts a demonstrable track record of putting the needs of the people first. Most importantly he ticks the equity and justice ticket with a balanced running mate that is both humane and urbane.

“As Rivers people, we have a great opportunity to support Mr. Peter Obi. We, therefore, strongly urge you to go to elections and vote for Mr. Peter Obi for president.

“We strongly believe that Peter Obi is the right candidate to lead Nigeria to a brighter future. We urge you to join us in supporting his candidacy, and let us work together to build a stronger, more prosperous Nigeria.

“The Bridge Campaign Organization therefore supports Peter Obi for President, Dr. Dawari George for Governor, and all AA National and state Assembly candidates.”

Aboki99:
Peter Obi's supporters are cock-a-hoop about what they see as the highest chance of their hero winning Nigeria's presidency next Saturday.

Are their optimism and excitement factually/statistically justified?

Let's do the arithmetic.

PO's strongholds are the SE and the SS, two zones with the least number of votes!. Granted that PO can scavenge some votes in the SW, but it's crystal clear that Tinubu will carry the day in SW eventually.

In the north, the Obidients rely on pockets of votes from northern xtians. But are these enough? Not at all. Since 1999, the northern xtians have never voted along the same line as the Muslim core North. For example they have never voted for Buhari. Yet, in 2014 and 2019 Buhari was able to win signifying the political insignificance of this voting bloc to a candidate that can garner votes in the core north and other parts (Tinubu?). Similarly, PMB was able to win elections without the votes of the SE and SS in both 2014 and 2019, which also trivializes the importance of these two Obi's main strongholds in determining the ultimate presidential winner.

So, for Obi to win the presidential election, he would, as a matter of necessity, need votes from Muslim voters in the north. But does he look set to get it? The truthful but bitter answer for Obidients to accept is No with a capital N. Problem is, the Obidients want to market Obi in the day as a pan-Nigerian candidate but brandish the news of Obi's endorsement by popular pastors/Churches whose altars Obi has turned to campaign platforms. This, rightly so, confuses the average northern Muslim voter and makes them pause to ask some legitimate questions[ Imagine Buhari going to the mosques to campaigns in 2014 or even 2019, what with the reaction be like from voters in say the SE?)

Not even the votes in Plateau and Benue, two states Obidients have also placed high, convoluted hope on can do anything to offset the bloc northern muslim votes. Here, the Obidients will conveniently bring up the issue of Kwankwaso who, as they argue passionately, will magically divide these votes for them to conquer and win the race. In making this highfalutin assumptions, the Obidients forget two crucial facts: 1) the muslim northern voters are never known, throughout Nigeria's political history, to cultivate the habit of wasting their votes. The average northern voter might not have gone to school but they're the most sophisticated; 2) Despite pulling some intimidating crowds in a couple of states esp in the nroth, the truth is Kano is Kwankwaso's main sphere of influence. Even there, I can't bet a penny that he'll win a simple majority for reasons adumbrated above.

Now, my only concern is what the reaction of the Obidients will be when the bubble of their alternative reality finally bursts. I hope they'll peacefully pick up the pieces, lick their wounds, move on and say "better luck next time".

Personally, I do not see any credible candidate worthy of my votes among the current pack of wolfs, but I know for sure that this 2023 election is a contest between Tinubu and Atiku. Yet, while I know this for a fact, I also have to admit that the outcome of this contest is highly unpredictable. Tinubu has 22 APC governors behind his back, huge war chest, media control and so on. Atiku has the support of some powerful members of PMB's kitchen cabinet, considerable war chest, and some current public angst to latch onto.

If you press me hard to rate the chances of the major contenders, I'll come up with something like these:
1. Tinubu 35%
2. Atiku 34
3. Obi 20%
4. Kwankwaso 9%

May God choose the best candidate for us.

Kyase:
But you believed Ortom, will determine the pattern of voting in Benue
All this millennial self

yarimo:
Hehehe frustrations mode activated ooo

leketon:
"Igbos should not waste their vote on Labour Party, i see it as a waste of vote"

~ Ngige

"I have carefully studied and re-studied the agenda of the Presidential Candidate of the Labour Party, Mr Peter Obi ahead of the 2023 election and found nothing other than a mere packaged deceitful strategy to deceive Nigerians.

"Both Labour Party and PDP should tell Nigerians what they are coming to do that we have not done. These are bunch of PDP looters aimed at coming back to power just to continue inflicting pains on Nigerians through the instrumentality of corruption and looting.

"We are talking about political structures here and Labour Party are out there spreading lies upon lies against the ruling of President Muhammadu Buhari who happens to be the best President Nigeria has ever produced.

"A vote for Peter Obi based on the Nigerian political calculation is just a waste of votes and time and will definitely amount to nothing. The earlier our people realize that Peter Obi's agenda represents everything fraud and deceit, the better for them all.

"Nigeria can't afford to go back to the era of looting and 419 political system again. We are progressives now and progressive we shall remain even after 2023 because Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, will take over from President Muhammadu Buhari."

~ Ngige

naijapips04:
Which major?

ryloy:
“I did not step down for Peter Obi.”

- ADC Presidential Candidate

ebenezary:
we all know that the stronghold of the three top presidential candidate are there region

#1. challenge of PO is sit-at-home by the bad boys

#2. the polling agent, if you have been an agent before, you know how they do run it for a party without agents and don't be deceive by BVAS, it is still human that will operate it
LP has less than 25% polling agent according to inec release

#3. Northern influence, LP has no strong formidable presence in the north, let's be sincere with ourself against APC or PDP, even NNPP will defeat LP in the north

Pierced:
I am an indigene of Enugu State .......so
I know what I am saying.

SpatialKing:
I'm patiently waiting

Where is Tinubu expecting to get votes from?

Pierced:
South East and South south.

Obi and his fans claim he will win the whole of South East......I want to see how he will win it when his party is practically non existent over there.

Forget the hype on social media......Obi and his party only exists in urban areas.......but u see those rural areas......what they know is PDP.

In Enugu State...... people in rural areas don't even know that there is a party called LP.....what they know is PDP and APC. With APC being hausa's people party.....while PDP is their own party.

Obi may be popular in South East......but his party is not popular and that will be his down fall.

CutieKing:
Some of LP members are mostly illiterate and love to grandstand..
Inec came out publicly they have no business with mc oluomo as a person,they are only dealing with Lagos state park and garage management.
So how does this judgement affect inec position??.