Angelfrost:
Good move... Lessons must be taught.

This report gladdens my heart.

You online riff-raffs need to be disciplined by the law... You imbeciles have abused this "freedom of speech" thing for too long.

He's technically threatening them through the law enforcement to get them to withdraw the statement.
Why is he not suing for defamation instead?

folake4u:


And who told you he will lose in court?

How will you feel if you birth a child and someone jokingly says the child looks like your best friend.

Put yourself in his shoes and answer truthfully.

He'll lose if he can't prove they're lying.
Stop using scare tactics.

maxiuc:
A case that he will loose woefully

I said haaaaa this boy really looked like you so what's crime in that

He's using intimidation tactics... That's what the rich do in 3rd world countries.

He's alerting the police to go after them as a means to get them to retract their statement instead following the civil-legal means which is suing for defamation.

He knows in a defamation trial, the case would be blown open and garner attention which may lead to the judge ordering a DNA test.

Notice the pattern... None of them sue the poor/lower class they scare them.
That's what we see in authoritarianism.

Cc: raumdeuter

raumdeuter:
Since Obi chose to attack and react to everything like concentrated acid



Tinubu merged his ACN with CPC to form APC. Today there is nothing like ACN anymore

Unlike Obi who abandoned APGA to PDP to LP all 3 parties are still in existence today

You're wrong on this one.

Nigerians are used to asslicking and being sycophants for the affluent and powerful... Which is bad.

Obi is in the opposition so he's doing a modest job acting as a check and balance as it's meant to be in a democracy.

Political prostitution (carpetbagging) is the norm in Africa especially Nigeria so Obi isn't the first but can he be the last?

Obi shouldn't be attacked for not being supportive of the government after a brutally contested race with all the shenanigans and brouhaha therein. The country has been in bad shape even more than the ruins Buhari left.

Tinubu should appeal and bring together those who didn't vote for him and not further ostracize them.

Good governance and effectiveness should cap it all.

raumdeuter:
Laurene
Florida abortion law, won't this put a safe red state into play?

Not really.
Florida has nearly 1 million more registered Republicans and they'll be out-voting the Dems by 2:1...Dems have to get 15 to 20 percent of Repubs to vote for Biden in that 2:1 advantage in order to put it in play and we all know it's not gonna be possible. Yes significant amount of Rs would vote for the proposal but it won't hurt Trump or Rick Scott because they'll split their ballot to vote for them.

Trump is facing Biden and not some popular or charismatic democrat and Trump is more moderate on abortion than Haley and DeSantis (he spoke out against the 6 weeks law while supporting 15 weeks ban).

Democrats would be coping. No house seat or legislative seat is competitive. Yes Dems would try to galvanise their base to vote but the problem is their base is shrinking in Florida.
It'd have much effect in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania...Not that it necessarily helps Biden much there too. Biden's biggest dark huddle this fall would be his "weakness and 3rd partiers".

It'll just be like 2004 when same sex marriage ban was on ballot in states like Michigan, Ohio PA, Wisconsin etc. Bush thought he'd capitalize on the unpopularity of same sex marriage then to win Michigan and PA.

It may fail though because it needs 60 percent to pass in Florida (I think). If it's 50% threshold then it likely passes. High turnout of low propensity voters that support Trump may hinder it from passing.
Kansas measure got 59 percent and Ohio got 57 percent.

Florida is gone for the democrats... Roe v Wade in 2022 didn't impact in Florida at all. The state would move more to the R federally this cycle.
Trump would be beating Biden by at least 1.25 million votes (approx. 9 to 11 percent).

IamGreen1:


The last statement isn't necessary

was a typo... Not not now

shortgun:


I rest my case

He proves your point.

ignis:
Tinubu is working.

President of the most populous black nation of the world is sponsoring a supporter's medical trip to overseas... Of course he's truly working.

IamGreen1:


Heal old man

He has a point.
He should be president for all and not his supporters only.

basilico:
I have a story. I will validate it when I get receipts.

Bill Barr prevented investigations of electoral fraud in 2020 to after he received credible proof of malpractices in Detroit and elsewhere. In Michigan? he called an investigator and ordered him to drop his investigation.
After 4 or 9 days he stated there was no proof of blatant fraud. That was a lie.
Trump wanted to replace him. A WH Counsel started rumors that they would all resign if Trump fired Barr and appointed someone else who was ready to investigate joe Biden"s theft.
Trump was surrounded by snakes.

I always thought Michigan was shady especially John James' senate election.
I really hope Trump campaign would have a strategic ground game to battle these shenanigans because Dems would keep finding votes from Detroit until they're satisfied.
They should sue to limit VBM... Any undated ballot, ballots not submitted before poll closing should not be counted.
Or
He wins by up to 50 thousand or more... So insurmountable.

Ben Carson would be good for Veep!
No to Tim Scott or Rubio.

I think he chooses a someone out of the box probably a woman.

God1000:
A country founded on christian values shouldn't be doing this but Oyibo way of life is different from black man

Hypocrite like you. Condemn Biden, no.
This is literally what Democrats support.
I wonder how you can be a devout Christian and support Democrat.

raumdeuter:


Talking about Joe Lieberman
News of his death just filtered in

Yeah... I mean his kinda boomer voters makes up Kennedy's base.

RIP to him.

raumdeuter:


You sound very well grounded in these local elections kudos

You know for the presidential elections the battle will be in 5 states Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan Arizona and Wisconsin. If I want to really expand I will push to 8 by adding Minnesota and Ohio (both are more predictable than the other 5)

I was thinking if RFK mission was to torpedo Bidens chances or help Trump the thing he could have done was pick a local popular guy from one the the first 5states. A local boy like Ventura can steal a lot of Biden votes in Minnesota, or Aaron Rodgers can steal a lot of Biden votes in Wisconsin

Picking Shanahan means he wont likely do much harm on the national level besides scraping a few thousand votes here and there but not enough to make any real damage to the final result

I see 3 toss up Senate seats (Montana Ohio Arizona ranked from most likely to least likely)

Montana Tester vs Sheehy. Given that Trump is on the ballot same day in a reliably red state I say Republican flip this

Ohio I will say it leans Republican too but I am not as certain as Montana

Arizona - I was hoping that Sinema would run as an independent, but given that she is not running, this race favors Democrat Gallego the advantage over Kari Lake as Sinema would not be taking votes away

Pennsylvania - This is an example of where I have the beef with Trump for interfering with the GOP nomination in 2022 by bringing and propping up Dr Oz who was from New Jersey vs McCormick a reliable Republican. I believe if McCormick has run vs Fetterman he would have flipped the seat given Fettermans struggles and health issues but Dr Oz was just not it and cost the party bigly. The chance to take PA senate seat might have gone with the Trumps Dr Oz gamble

I think the GOP did a better job at recruiting this cycle than in 2022. Getting Larry Hogan in MD into the race was brilliant, even if he doesnt win, he forces the Democrats to divert money into this race instead of it being a Blue walk over, Also getting McCormick into Pennsylvania was a good move though 2yrs late IMO

They should have convinced Sununu to run for the NH seat in 2022 to unseat Maggie Hassan instead of Bolduc who lost feebly

Its left to be seen how the state votes in Presidency given they are at the forefront of the immigration like Texas NM and Cali

- Michigan I dont think Trump wins Michigan. He lost by 150K votes there in 2020. I dont think 150k people have changed their minds nor 100k flipped over. I know there is a lot of noise about Moslem votes but I dont see them voting for Trump either, while by election day many will hold their nose and vote Biden

The states Trump has a chance of flipping will be those he lost marginally, Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Flipping these 3 wont be enough to get Trump the win which is why I think Biden still wins the election

Unless something massive happens between now and Nov that makes Trump wins Michigan Nevada Wisc and Pennsylvania. I think its still Bidens to lose

Nicole Shanahan definitely helps Trump... She's a progressive. The ticket would be considered too liberal for right wingers and palatable for leftists.
Aaron on the ticket with RFK jnr would have been considered too right winged... Remember Rodgers was attacked as a conspiracy theorist (due to the Sandy Hook saga) when he rumored to be the running mate.
Kennedy-Shanahan ticket is exactly what Trump needs. Liberals that don't like Biden would vote the ticket.
Remember Gary Johnson got about 2 to 3 percent in swing states enough to change the outcome. Johnson was even a former republican governor of New Mexico.
Shanahan has money and would convince a chunk of young liberals to vote for the ticket while Kennedy convinces a chunk of Boomer Dems to vote for them too.

Tester is much more stronger than Brown and also has higher approval ratings. Montana is a very small and rural state and less polarized too compared to Ohio.
IMO, both candidates lose this year for sure.

Arizona is gonna be a long shot for Kari Lake but we'll see what happens. If Trump wins by 2 or 3 points and over 50 percent then she wins by 1 point.
Gallego ain't no Sinema or Mark Kelly and he's even worse than Hobbs. He's a progressive... He'll have a far left voting record.

Truth is Mccormick wouldn't have won too...Oz lost by 5 but He'd lose by 3 or 4. No one would have overcame that amount of mail-in votes. He would have lost to Fetterman and will still lose to Casey.

Hogan would lose by 10 to 15 instead of the usual 30. And that's worth funding by the GOP?
So you'd rather the GOPe fund Mccormick, Hogan and Hovde instead of Lake that lost by less than 1 point or Bernie Moreno that stands a greater chance of winning?

Trump lost PA by 1 point and you think he win it now?
I think you're just regurgitating establishment talking points of blaming Trump for 2022 losses. You're also thinking that's gonna reflect 2024.
Those candidates lost on their own accord and abortion too, not Trump. He only endorsed a candidate just others do.

I've explained Trump could win cos of Biden's unpopularity and strong 3rd party candidates.
RFK jnr would get 6 to 9 percent nationally...
5 to 6 percent in Michigan,
4 percent in Arizona
3 percent in PA
4 in Wisconsin
5 on Georgia
9 to 12 percent in New Hampshire
7 in Maine
6 in Utah
6 in Minnesota
>Bookmark this and come later.

Kennedy would get the highest number of votes since Ross Perot.
We still have stein and West... Biden is fighting for his life. You can take it to the bank.

Trump endorsed Glenn Youngkin and he also won but no one gave him such credit (not saying he wholly won because of Trump) but he wasn't a never Trumper and he united Trump factions and others but promising to pass laws and audit voting machines to curtail fraud.

Roe v Wade made Republicans underperform 2022 and not Trump. EOD!

ijebosb:


Kennedy being a raging liberal is right wing blather.
The themes in this post are 'a lot'.
Are you planning to vote for Trump in 24?

Check Kennedy's previous posts and positions, he's a full blown liberal... He's only kinda moderating cos of election.
He's running as an independent today because of how DNC treated him... If his candidacy jeopardizes Biden... Then it's a big L to DNC.

I'll watch who Trump is picking for Veep before I make my decision. I'll support a Trump/Gabbard, Trump/Stefanik or Trump Noem ticket.
I don't mind Ben Carson or Tim Scott as VP.

But I want a woman as VP not because of DEI or sentiments but I just like the aforementioned peeps.

raumdeuter:


Maybe the never Trumpers and Lincoln project guys can vote RFK instead of adding to Bidens vote

Republicans who don't like Trump can vote RFK, Democrats who don't like Biden can vote RFK
What's RFK stand on the Gaza war? If anti Israel Maybe he will get some youth and Moslem votes too from Biden

The VP pick of Shanahan will fund his campaign I'm guessing

I am more concerned about down ballot Senate and Congress

Some never Trumpers would vote for Biden while most would vote for RFK jnr.
Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins has signalled they wouldn't vote for Biden inasmuch they won't vote for Trump. Democrats like Joe Lieberman would definitely vote RFK jnr.
Never Trumpers have never voted for Trump but they sour on Biden now and they're the part of the coalition that brought Biden to power but they'll be splitting their votes this year.

Shanahan is a progressive so I think he chose her to balance his ticket... The Dems has already been calling him right winger because of his covid stance but he's still socially liberal and supports green new deal. And yes Shanahan would help fund his campaign and help him garner signatures to be on ballots.

Trump has strong coattails. I don't see how Trump carries state like Ohio, Montana and maybe Wisconsin and Michigan then the Democrat candidates gets elected... Remember those are not even Susan Collins type in bipartisanship or even Manchin. Polarization is also far greater now than in 2016.

I'm predicting:
1. Trump wins Ohio and carries Moreno (we can see it from the primary result). Moreno won every county... Besides Sherrod Brown is a far left liberal dem in a state that is moving rapidly to the right. He voted 97 percent of the time with Biden and Schumer. He ain't no bipartisan moderate.

2. Trump wins Montana by 19 to 20 points then Sheehy wins by 2.5 to 3 points. Montana is less polarized than Ohio because of how rural it is... No big cities like other highly populated states. And Tester has this rural, working class and farmer demeanour that appeals to the small populated State but this time around he'll be defeated. He'll share a ticket with Trump whom he voted to convict twice and he has voted 93 percent of the time with Biden. He won't deceive Montanans that he's a moderate because his opponent would be well funded too to run ads against him. He has high approval ratings for now (it'll go down before election day) but it won't translate to much votes for him... Ask Steve Bullock.

Brown and Tester has never actually being elected on a red year now they'll even be sharing a ticket with Trump... How do you convince significant over Trump voters to vote for Trump then vote for you??

3. I believe if Trump wins Michigan, Mike Rogers would win too. It's an open seat.

4. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin has incumbents defending their seats. Bob Casey is squaring off against a well-funded Candidate in Mccormick and not some Oz moment ... He's in a fight for his political life. He won by 8 points back in blue year 2018... I think he wins by 2 or 3 this time. Trump can win by 1 point if Casey wins a very close election.

Wisconsin has the same scenario as Pennsylvania but I think Baldwin has higher chance of losing to Casey's. The Caseys' is a traditional family name in PA just like Beshear in Kentucky but difference is Beshear would definitely lose a federal race in Kentucky... He's father was a popular pro life governor that fought against abortion (remember planned parenthood v Casey) but Bob has flipped his positions on abortion over the years... Now he's a reliable rubber-stamp progressive. He isn't even bipartisan.

House races would be a bit unpredictable but statewide is different ballgame....Different coalition of voters to offset district races.

LordAdam16:


I'll admit Trump's chances look so good right now, but I still can't bring myself to accept that he'll be allowed to return to the WH.
In March 2020, he was on track to an easy re-election... And then COVID hit.

I am impatiently waiting for the other shoe to drop.
That development that makes you go, "Here we go again."

But if somehow he pulls the W, his face should be added to Mt. Rushmore.

-Lord

Trump was being trounced in the polls all through the 2020 election cycle by Biden but I agree he had higher chances of reelection until covid struck.

I'm quite confident Trump is in a better position even better than 2016 especially when faced with Biden... In 2016 pundits and commentators predicted Trump didn't stand a single chance against Clinton but in this election cycle the case is totally different.

Let's not act like Biden is Clinton or even Obama... He has lots of things going against him too but we'll see how it goes as we approach Labor and enter the falls.

raumdeuter:
Laurene

RFK picked Nicole Shanahan as his VP

What does this mean for the main election

Any conservative that votes for Kennedy at this point is either demented or simply a Trump-hater.

raumdeuter:
Laurene

RFK picked Nicole Shanahan as his VP

What does this mean for the main election

I'm lol-ing here. I told IjeBos that Kennedy is a raging liberal and would definitely be taking votes away mostly from Biden and not Trump.

Watch Dems try to block or circumvent his ability to get on ballots especially in swing states. They've already started to sound the alarm about his candidacy... I've read something like that from a columnist on The Hill.

I don't see how Biden wins this election...especially with these third "partiers". Biden's coalition is very very fragile so he can't afford to lose any of those that brought him to power. RFK jnr obviously voted for Biden in 2020 but now such demographics that soured on Trump but voted Biden would go to Kennedy.

Democrats are ironically communists now... They'll come with lawfare and baseless accusations to try to weaken or take him off completely.
Trump is predicting they'll bring environmental charges against him probably Ecoterrorism.

I continue to say Democrats are not defenders and upholders of democracy... Don't be deceived.
They're getting desperate.

This election season would be scandal-plagued and probably the most controversial since 2000.. Brace up for a very long ride!

Sapasenator:
Who cares what the orange bufoon has to say. Let him face his legal troubles.

You're calling someone that just increased his networth over 6 billion a buffoon?
And you're living in Nigeria?

GAZZUZZ:


The advert is not targeted for the poor masses .

So being rich is buying a 2008 mercedes s class for 12 million? What happened to 2023/24?

Obrigardo:
The user caught red handed is benalvino3 incase anyone is confused.

Are you jobless? Go and look for job

raumdeuter:


Manchin and Sinema voted in line with Democrats 90% of the time just like Liz Cheney voted with Republicans 90% of the time.

Its the pretense about liberals, we are the good people the others are terrible

The Dems will probably look towards Newsome next election cycle. I was actually hoping we would see a Newsome vs DeSantis sometime soon thats if the extremists don't cancel them

Newsome is seen as a California liberal not even in the like of Jerry Brown... He's progressively in line with Warren and AOC but he'd run for the presidency some time in the future. Andy Beshear or John Bel Edwards would fit a national profile but they can't win a national primary in today's democratic party.

raumdeuter:


It will be disingenuous to blame one side when Democrats have ruled white house for 12 of the last 16yrs and voters dissatisfaction is this high. The easier thing for me to do is to lay the blame solely at the feet of Democrats but you are even doing worse and trying to blame the Republicans solely who have ruled white house for 25% of the time

And where is Manchin today? He is leaving the Senate, where is Sinema he is leaving the senate, the leading voices in the Democratic party are the AOC, the Sanders, Warren who some of their positions would have been treasonable 40yrs ago yet you claim the Democratic party is moving right? No the Democratic party is moving way to the left

What was the Democratic policy on LGBT say 30yrs ago and what is it now? What was the democratic party policy on crime 30yrs ago, what of on immigration? Does that look like its moving right or left?

I understand middle and it means compromise, no policy is as white and black as baby live or cut in half. There are compromises to be made
to make progress in any situation else we stall and nothing moves at all


On your thoughts about remain in Mexico. What is wrong with "bribing another country" We have been bringing countries for decades in the past to achieve stability in our homeland? The bribe of Mexico vs the chaos we have in the land now which is worse.
So we first break the system that is controlling the situation and now go to find a solution to what we spoilt

Abraham accord basically is to broker peace between Israel and their neighbors so we don't have to be bugged down with never ending ME crisis and deaths. It gives the responsibility to control to the neighbors culturally similar and familiar with Palestine.
There are many Arab countries who are opening up Saudi Oman Bahrain UAE Qatar are now embracing liberal ideas. Women can drive, as an example, These countries need Western money in form of tourism money and oil money. To get these money flowing and mutually beneficial, control the extremist and terrorists(Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Al Aqsa) on your side and US on our side we ensure flow of business, You get to host fights, you host world cup, you make more money. Make money instead of hiding in bush to be throwing bombs and strapping your kids with suicide vest

Now compare to where we are today. Since then how many have died. Is that ok for the Palestinians? over 35k people dead, 80% of their land destroyed, On the Israel side 1500 killed on October 7 over 200 many rockets flying in everyday

Is this worse than the Abraham accord? Will Palestinians prefer their current situation to the "terrible Abraham accord"

That dude makes it seem as though only Republican Party is dysfunctional. There are Manchin and Sinema aren't running for reelection partly because the Dems forced them out. They basically voted 90 percent with Joe Biden but it wasn't enough.
After Joe Biden the Dems would start nominating AOC, Warren and Rashida to top positions.
Kamala is a creep and would be farther to the left of Biden.

IjeBos:


The problem is your party isn't against extreme abortion measures. That's why it's an issue. Some are talking about a Fed. abortion ban. IVF ban. Birth control ban. Pretty nutty stuff. And they are abusing the Judicial system to do so.

Trump single handedly lost them a lot of seats by picking very nutty candidates like Herschel Walker.

Which Republicans moderated? Trump forces everyone to ride the crazy train with him. He has taken over the RNC and put in charge his daughter. He also elevated a 2020 election denier as their Election lawyer. lol. This is Trump's party and you're either onboard with his brand of crazy or you're off the train.

The amount of Republican House resignations are a sign of things to come.

Some are talking about a 15 weeks abortion ban which is moderate.
Ironically, nobody has abused the justice system more than the democrats... We've seen it countlessly.
There are hardliners in both parties. So don't make it seem like the Republicans only have the crazies.

Ronna McDaniel was Mitt Romney's niece so did he elevate her to same position too? Does it matter as long as they deliver? You guys would find fault in anything.

Resignations are from Uniparty Bush Rinos that are dying off and are afraid they won't be recognized again. Republicans only had 2 resignations.. Bill Johnson and Ken Buck.

You guys are entering this election with so much confidence of which may backfire... You're reading so much meaning to 2022.
November would be a true and final test of voter's stance on Trump and Biden.
Dems are election deniers too. I hope you'd blame Biden and not Americans if he loses?

You're trying to make it seem like Trump's a walkover. Those Trump endorsed candidates that lost are not Trump and I'm confident Trump stands a chance against Biden. Your peeps really hoped Trump would be convicted this year so you guys can have talking points.

We'll see how it ends!

IjeBos:


Abortion's just not an issue that people will forget. Roe v. Wade touched on issues like IVF and even birth control. And unfortunately for Republicans people like having sex. And the draconian laws and stories resulting from the overturning are nuts.
In some states a 13 y.o. girl who is raped by say her uncle, must deliver the baby and to make matters worse, if/when the uncle gets out of jail he can get parental custody of that child. Nuts.
Also there was a story of a woman who needed and abortion to remove a fetus that wouldn't survive birth and delivering that baby could cause life threatening issues for her. Texas wouldn't allow her to so she had to leave the state to do it. Nuts.

As to Youngkin, that was pre Roe v Wade ruling. So, you're making my point about abortion.

I'm against extreme abortion measures but I think there should be limitations.
I only referenced Youngkin because you're trying to make it seem why the red wave didn't happen was because of Trump.

I still believe the red wave failed to materialize because of Roe V Wade... Some candidates running in swing states were hard-core prolife anti abortionists. Abortion moderate district and statewide Candidates won.

Lots of Republicans has moderated in this cycle. They won't be seen as nutjobs again.

raumdeuter:

From your username I am guessing you are female and probably black
I have spoken to a few black female and I think they are the most anti Trump demographic. And the abortion thing is the first thing they all mention.

Even if I like Trump policies, I can't support him because of personal reasons. For example in my county GOP, Trump has started endorsing people for local elections some that he probably didn't know theor antecedents just because they came to him or kissed his ring harder. Some of them don't even have conservative principles, never attended meetings locally, never shown up to the constituency just that they met with Trump and he endorsed them. By election time they just flash their Trump endorsement No background on them or whatever they did in the past. A few of them Won primaries in my state and are likely going to win election without checking their bonfides

You can't just run a party based on having your loyalists everywhere

I love George W Bush. You can say he went to war but that was a war forced on him the moment 911 happened and he did everything to defend America

You cannot have prosperity if enemies think they can attack your country at will. The few times ISIS was running riot circa 2015, many cities in Europe had to shut down for a few days cos people were scared

I also supported Bush and Obama. I was even at Grant Park in Chicago the day Obama won in 2008

If Romney or Bush contest now, I will vote them. America needs real conservative leadership we are a country right of center and those men fit the bill but I understand those who won't

I think black women are actually every republican's lowest appealing demographic... It's not just a Trump thing. We keep seeing the result with other candidates since Reagan 80'. A quarter of young black men are more likely to vote republican than their women. Young black women also tend to be more liberal and uncouth than their male.

Conservative black women like Candace Owens, Kimberly Klacik, Winsome Sears, Diamond and Silk and Loretta King would vote for Trump.
There are more conservative black men than conservative black women. I can't really name a popular conservative black man that won't vote for Trump. If Tim Scott that's establishmentarian would vote for Trump over Haley that appointed him to the senate then it proves Trump's strength. Trump is on track to get the highest number of black vote for a republican presidential candidate since Dwight Eisenhower.

Which county is that? Regarding the issue, I don't think Trump do meddle in local elections that much. He only tried after the 2020 election brouhaha to change the trajectory of state politics in order to avert what happened prior... Of course he didn't succeed in all.
For instance, this cycle he has only endorsed few loyal state legislators that aren't being facing serious challenges. He only endorsed David Covey in Texas 34 against the speaker Dade Phelan because he impeached Ken Paxton even though it failed in the senate. Ken Paxton faces same lawfare that Trump is facing... If the people of Texas didn't like Paxton they'd have voted him out.
So the notion that Trump endorses in local elections to assert control is farfetched... That's liberal talking points. He mostly endorses those that seek it. Bush endorsed and campaigned for loyal candidates too... So no wrong in that.

I can never support Neocons again, they're out of touch with the current republican party. Bush and Cheney left office with abysmal approval ratings. He can't even influence his district race in Texas right now. The Republican Party has been undergoing changes since 2016 with the rise of the tea party, Trump only tapped into the disaffection. That's why George. P. Bush lost his primary for Attorney General and Liz Cheney was soundly defeated. Romney is retiring too... More would follow suit if Trump wins.
Likewise can be said of the Dems... Once Biden is out they'll start nominating far leftists like AOC and Jamal Bowman.

Alot has changed in American politics since the last 20 years... If Trump leaves tomorrow or dies, the movement continues.

benalvino3:


Abortion is indeed a serious issue. People are voting based on that.

Can I see any data that shows abortion is a top tier concern for voters?

raumdeuter:


I think abortion vote is a real issue especially among women. But the thing is Trump abortion plan is a 16weeks grace period which is the middle ground and common sense place which most sensible people can support

Having a 0 day/6weeks ban is as crazy as saying you can abort till 9months

If Trump campaigns on his 16weeks proposal, I wonder what the Democrats will say against that.

Even liberal Europe has a time limit when you can legally abort. Its 12 weeks in Germany and Italy, 14 weeks in Spain/France. UK and Holland are the most lax which is 24weeks
So 16weeks fits right in the middle

The appeal of Trump to his supporters is that he is not a real hardcore conservative, He is very much pro life, pro LGBT, Don't forget he lived in New York all his life. He is anti war unlike most Republicans While speaking to the heart of what many middle class people care about which is Economy stupidd

And if the Democrat plan is the same scare tactics of Trump will kill you, he will deport you, he will crash the stock market etc, Well many voters have experienced 4yrs of Trump and are immune to those attacks

I don't like his persona and wont vote him for personal reasons. I am writing in George W Bush though my state is not really a swing state and wont matter anyway

The abortion issue is real but overblown...and yes Trump is moderate on abortion.
Your analysis is spot on until you said you won't vote for him. If he fits your narrative, why can't you just close your eyes and vote for him?

I also have personal reservation about him but I'd never vote for a warmongerer in Bush. I'd have voted for Bush in 2004 and Obama 2008 but I won't vote for either Bush or Romney if they ran now. I hate forever wars.
Trump promises peace regardless of his flaws. I believe if he wins, Ukraine would be forced to make peace with Russia which is good for world stability.

People don't know that Trump is one of the most moderate candidate in today's GOP... He's actually liberal on social issues but conservative on policies.

raumdeuter:


I think the 3rd party candidates wont have as much traction this cycle like the times of Ross Perot which robbed HW Bush

I think they'll... Not necessarily a Ross Perot kinda performance but a strong performance too.

Gary Johnson got 3 percent of the votes and Jill Stein got 1 percent but they got it higher in states that mattered and that offseted things.
People are gonna vote third party in this cycle especially when both leading candidates are highly disliked.

I believe RFK jnr's support would collapse a little due to polarisation but I think he'd get roughly 5 to 8 percent of the votes at the end. He may even make it to the debate and lay down his case more.

He'll get the highest number of votes since Ross Perot 1996'... I place my money on 6 percent. It'll be enough to alter the final result.

I estimate third partiers to get within 10 to 11 percent of the entire votes cast.

raumdeuter:


Totally enjoyed your analysis. I am also a conservative voter as well.

I hope you post here more often

Thanks... I'll try to post. Work schedule is tight.
I've been on nairaland quite some years but I rarely comment.