₦airaland Forum

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theafricareport.com/48706/nigeria-if-you-thought-2020-was-bad-brace-yourself-for-2021/amp/


We watch and see wetin go happen

S007:
Buy Gtb at 40naira or buy Zenith at 36naira.
After few weeks you will find out that you have paid some tuition

Who is holding this thing

RealityShot:
thank you for that.

Ask him also,
So because of negative rates in MMF, I will go and buy GTB at N37 or more baa?

(when their last final dividend is N2.50k which will give me a poor 6% profit mtchewww)

Senior men have finally said the truth about my question on GTB.

Redoil:
the CBN has refuse to provide forex to foreigners and importers who then decided to invested heavily in the stock market making it difficult for them to repatriate their money and to import so most of them are left with no choice than to keep it in the stock market.

the economy is dying and the CBN will be left with no choice than to sell forex to them and importers.

if we can time and know the time CBN will sell forex to importers to import and foreign investors t repatriate their money out then we should start seeing a drop in the stock price

Yea, this was what I was told as well by a friend in the Fin Sec. He gave this as the reason GTB was so high. That why one has to be cautious cause once the forex comes in, heaven only knows what will happen to the stock afterwards.
Thanks for the details Mehn ������

Mcy56:
You guys have tried with various aspects of viewing the topic at hand......Recession ........and I particularly love your perspective.

Let me remind us that Nigeria entered into recession before now........but worsen in Q2 cos of Covid-19 pandemic.
In quote: "Nigeria economy shrank in the 2nd quarter of this year as GDP fell by 6.10% compared with a growth of 1.87% in Q1".
The question is: Did banks/coys made profits during this period despite the global events? Did some people made fortune out of other's panic selling (at loss)?
The same Q2 when the economy plunged into recession, some still made considerable profits. Most stocks appreciated by +100% or more in the said period.
in essence, there's always opportunities presenting itself in any of these events.

I think you needed to re-assess your reasons for being in this market and not just be there because someone encouraged you to do so.
Let's remember that during recesion, investors tends to look for safe haven to hide.........and this is mostly in dividend yielding investments such as stocks, bonds, money market funds or any of such.

While I'm not saying you should not do portfolio re-balancing, remember not to panic unnecessarily if you're in good dividend yielding stocks. You know why? Some bargainers such as Peter are already lurking in a strategic corner with their sharpened cutlasses to make a kill from your panic.

When there's recession, efforts seems to be in top gear to stem or find solutions to it, this may in turn be followed by a recovery in which stock market especially won't be left out.

If you are sitting on a good profit, you may sell to re-enter at much lower prices SHOULD stock prices fall beyond expectations. Bargain investors always make good use of the opportunity too.......as could be seen in March/April 2020 when prices were very low but appreciated when activities picked up in the economy,coupled with reduced fixed income rates, etc.

If you're not in profit, try not to sell at loss. Dividends will take care of things till economy recovers or things normalize.
If you have steady flow of income, it could be a good time to wait for bottom prices and average down......good example is Zimams Zenith holding up here.

The much noised recession might not even be as worst as portrayed, social media has a way of blowing things out of proportion......and may not be as simple/good as it may seems.

This is Mcy's perspective too. Make Una no vex for the epistle.

Mehn no vexing at all Oooo rather kudos
This has benefited me greatly (100%) and am sure many newbies like me have picked up a thing or two as well.

I thought this year alone was the year for greater analysis and calculations based on events but it seems next year too will be the same if not requiring more looking before leaping

Thanks a lot ����

zimams:
You know how the Democrats in the US say Trump's policies favour just his friends and cronies? For now.... in this our country, policies espoused by the CBN favours this market..... for now o!

Like I said before, Hot money will always head towards favourable conditions. As at March/April lows, Dividend yield for Zenith Bank , UCAP were 20%+ if I'm not wrong... currently, even with our ASI where it is there are still a number of stocks with Dividend yield btwn 9% - 12%. This is out performing rates from some other investments or risk assets. When this condition changes.... then I will expect a big Bear just before and after. The challenge is how to see it coming..... Our gurus in the house with more experience fit sound the alarm for boys to jump out...
There is a difference between drop in share prices due to panic sales and drop in share price due to poor performance of a Coy and drop in share price due to a significant change in govt policy that makes the market less attractive. We need wisdom to decipher.

And again.. everything is largely built around perception, objective and risk appetite of the investor.

Let me share a short story from my experience 3 months ago.

Where I come from in the east, the PHC - Maiduguri Rail line crosses right in front of my father's house. It's about 100 meters from the house. That rail was built by the British in the early 1900's. The bars in between the rails are all made of steel. I grew up seeing that rail everytime we travelled home for holidays or events.

Fast fwd to August 2020, I accompanied my Mrs to Yaba market to do some shopping. And for the first time I came in contact with the new standard gauge rail being built by the Chinese. Alas... Those steel bars in between the Rails are made of reinforced concrete. I do not know the terms or the deal the FG has with the Chinese. But I would be surprised if they are importing cement being used to build these rails. And there are new deals for Standard gauge rail virtually all around the country.

So taking our Cement industry into consideration, I will be more concerned about the sustainability of these sort of projects rather than a recession. Unless of course, the recession threatens the project. Which is unlikely because the FG has loan agreements in place covering the projects for which they've also provided counter part funding as per turn-key contract terms.

Now this is no recommendation o! I'm just sharing an experience to highlight how I choose to look at some of the issues that concern us. Ultimately, your portfolio is 100% your responsibility.

Thanks for this analysis Bro
Greatly appreciated (100%) ����
Will do more research and DD on my end also
��������

zimams:
True ...you are very correct. Entry price is very important. But my point is that your entry price and whether you should buy at all should be driven more by financial health of the company and its ability to make profit.

Everything is cyclical... hot money comes and goes. If you bought right and you have medium to long term objectives.... you wont worry about hot money leaving.

Your perspective and objective is everything.

In 2007/2008 I bought Zenith at 47.60/share... it turned to dust in my hands when the market crashed.
The same Zenith is a substantial part of my portfolio today with average entry price at 13.37. We still dey hold....


People wey dey fear recession..... make I remind una say.... na inside this recession wey some stocks don deliver 100 % - 200 % to some of us here....

Just know your objective in the market and buy right.... then allow nature (time + forces of demand and supply/market ) do its thing..

Again this is me o! Strictly my opinion.

Very true...
The only thing that baffles me is how GTB is just defying logic in this recession because it didn’t behave like this in 2008.

Someone mentioned that it’s because rates on bonds and fixed deposits have drastically fallen and so investors have no choice but to run to stocks.

If this is true I wonder how long this trend can last. Especially given the group said Q2 and Q3 was bad for financial sectors.
I see GTB as the fin Sec leader and a good stock but not sure if this rise is sustainable or if it’s downtown from here
So I say make I ask make I no go blunder as a newbie

Grateful for all advice and ready to do due diligence based on them (100%)

megawealth01:
GTB go do reach 40? Me don waka sha I go comeback later sha... When it gets to below 25 anyways

Okay I think I’ve got my answer. ����

Good day Smart Investors,
Pls can someone help explain to me how our economy is in a recession and GTB stocks just keeps going up and up?
My plan was to wait for it to go down and then buy next year but it’s gone so high as not sure what’s going on.

Also if you could in any way also forecast what’s likely to happy to it next year it would be highly appreciated.
Thanks ��

https://businesspost.ng/economy/webinar-to-help-retail-investors-achieve-financial-goals-holds-monday/
Its already started but mentioned there would be a youtube recording available afterwards

rebekah2011:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/29549_OMOLUABI_MORTGAGE_BANK_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2020.pdf
So this is where Morgan Capital is keeping their funds.

Mehn how this you do this great research and greater discovery?
I am ready to learn O

RabbiDoracle:
Not in Nigeria.

Firms in the hospitality, tourism, airlines, small businesses (restaurants, tour company and affiliated services) could go under in US, EU and Asia. However there are palliatives for them by their countries to tap from.

There are other companies that will have exceptional revenue this quarter (Q1). Supermarkets chains, pharmaceutical and medicals, telecoms, online educational firms, couriers,

Thanks a lot for this Chief
Its greatly appreciated.
I guess there are some benefits to be investing in a country like naija

Hello All, I am a new member here and had a question for the senior men here.
Based on Mohammed EL-Elian's evaluation, companies are gonna be going under. My question is is there a way to know private companies that will go under? so for publicly traded companies you know their books but private companies like investment houses. Lets say one invest with an investment house or a micro-finance bank, how do you know their strength.

I ask because say an investment house gives 9% annually, given the volatility of the market its smart to keep investing in such a house but one must be sure its not gonna go under. Is there any way to be sure of this?
Any advice would be greatly appreciated.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/30/mohamed-el-erian-markets-stocks-investment-strategy-squawk-box.html?fbclid=IwAR0B8415TV9CsRAScUV9x4qGrZmVP4X3EoDjODOrgbQllEUcH_cuLqrLZ_w

Godisfaithful:
No sane investor will buy that stock for now

Or any for that matter now.
One should be seriously evaluating and checking to see what is going on and how things will shape in the next 3-6 months before doing anything else other wise its a falling knives game that's being played.

Chibuking81:
https://www.gtbank.com/investor-relations/other-information

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnsa/zenith/dividends

https://nairametrics.com/2019/11/05/list-of-dividends-announced-in-the-nigerian-stock-exchange-in-2019-november-2019/

https://nairametrics.com/2019/03/25/nse-list-of-dividends-announced-so-far-in-2018/

Mehn it seems this dividend is well worth it in some cases.
To the drawing board for comparison
Thanks Oga @Chibuking81

moneymanager:
Hello Sirs
I am a newbie here
Pls where can I know the total dividends for the last five years for companies like GTB and Zenith
Thanks Bosses

Any pointers on where to find it would be highly appreciated
The reason for asking is if such statistics is available.
A long term investor with moderate capital can evaluate between this and OMO bills, T-bills and investment houses fixed deposits
Sure I have asked an investment house but just wondered if there was a already existing data for it

Hello Sirs
I am a newbie here
Pls where can I know the total dividends for the last five years for companies like GTB and Zenith
Thanks Bosses

Does anyone on this forum trade with short selling on the NSE?
I previously thought it was not possible but found a link on the NSE site : -
http://www.nse.com.ng/products/equities/short-selling

Asked a few of the stock trading firms and they all said they don't do it and instead offered the option of Margin lending which is very different
Any advice/Info on the matter would be greatly appreciated
I brought it up because without short selling the market has an advantage of 2/3 against the investors 1/3 for profit opportunity
Thanks Sirs

thebargainhunte:
I never witnessed this with other stock brokers I have been using. I bought a stock using morgancapitalgroup, the other was filled and I got debited from my account after everything. It surprises that the stock I bought vanished after the whole process, only for them to leave meagre units for me.They refuded me back my money, but the money they refunded is not complete. I feel cheated and deceived by morgancapital. I have tried to contact them, but they refused to honour my emails. This is very bad of them to be ripping off people in a coded way.

Easy fix, write an email explaining this clearly, attach screenshots, go to their about us page and get their senior members emails, cc compliance at Nigerian stock exchange and other email addresses from the NSE
Send the email
Next go to their Facebook and twitter page and complain.
If you don’t get a response in 24 house call contact at the NSE to complain
Then wait for your solution
They will surely resolve it for you
Sorry you are going thru this
But before doing all this make sure you are in the right and that the fault is not yours
Good luck