₦airaland Forum

techWriter3:
not the party operatives and their immediate family members I mentioned above robots, goats or birds

Are you a bot?

Hmm

Mikeloo:
Answer to your question: NONE. I disagree on the bolded except you prove with statistics. Times have changed. Many Nigerians now demand accountability over gratification. If you have been to the Northern part of the country recently you will understand this

Lol, you're still emotional.


For example, below is a delegate donating what he made from this years PDP convention to his community. He has paid school fees for them. Even if its a cup of rice, his community knows he has given them something.

There are indigent families in his community that are hoping that he will buy JAMB forms for their children by March 2023 or April.

They've never seen their Governor or even Local Government Chairman before. This ordinary PDP delegate there is their own government and know that their happiness lies in helping him return pdp in his community.

Bro, fvck it, there's no grammar on earth you'll speak to make those loyal to him vote another party. Same happens in the case of APC.

Call this man by 11pm this evening to give you 500 young people from his community before 8am tomorrow morning and He will deliver.

Politics is local.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanguardngr.com/2022/06/pdp-delegate-donates-proceeds-to-community-members-pays-sch-fees-for-students/amp/

Mikeloo:
I understand your analysis which is simple and straightforward. But it is not a sure-bet that APC or PDP will have over a million votes from the agents. Do you think all card carrying members including agents will actually be loyal on that election day? I would expect you build an assumption like half of the agent are able to do their work well to get voters on their side

Who is more likely to be loyal on election day ?

A Card carrying member who worked for the Party for 10 years, invested everything in the party? Stepped down on one instance for an older member to be awarded the office of ward councillor in 2020 and has been promised to become a ward councillor in 2024 during local government elections.

Or

a 21 year old who has subscribed for Netflix and is not sure of going out if it rains?


There are hundreds of thousands of career politicians across Nigeria's grassroot politics whose entire hope of getting their next meal, building a house and feeding their children depends on returning their party's candidate.

Betraying their political party is like dropping out of school of medicine for no reason at 600 level.

Mikeloo:
I think your analysis is based on a two-horse race election. But as it seems we may have a four-horse race presidential election next year and the language from everyone is to defend your vote i.e. vote and stay for the count. Social media has help a lot to reduce any mago mago from the election officials

I believe when the campaign start proper and any party that can maintain the momentum till 25th February, 2023 for campaign and sensitization as well as good policy will naturally build a structure without any agent.

As it stands, we have over 96m registered voters. If half of these come out to vote with an average of 200 voters per PU, any party that garners one-third vote from each PU with or without agent is sure to go for runoff election or win out rightly.

Next year Presidential election likely to be a replica of 1979 election

You're missing the point. The post does not talk about new voters or even ordinary voters. It talks about APC and PDP card carrying members and their immediate family or friends.

Akpabio will give Tinubu 25% in Akwa Ibom State.

That's all that matters.

If he wins his Senatorial bid, he'll battle Senatorial seat with Uzor KALU. If he doesn't, he'll still return as a Minister. A win/win for him!

These are the middle belt and northern Christians that will vote Labour Party abi?

Tinubu will win the middle belt/North Central before 6pm on election day. That is certain.

Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa and Niger States as it stands today are on lockdown for him!

NotBeenPaid:

---

A myth. It's what you've been made to believe. The people are the structure.

---

Are the party agents and their immediate family members I mentioned above robots, goats or birds?

Are APC and PDP structures in Nigeria a myth or reality?

There are 176846 (One Hundred Seventy Six Thousand Eight Hundred and Forty Six ) polling units across Nigeria.

As it stands today, APC and PDP have at least one agent in each of the polling units.

If that agent brings just "5" (five ) people who may be his friends, community neighbour, or family member, it would be 6 people to vote for either APC or PDP in those places.

176846 * 6 = 1,061,076

As it stands today, if INEC announces this evening that there will be Presidential Election across Nigeria by 8AM tomorrow morning, APC and PDP are sure of at least 1 million votes each without campaign, preparation or even buying votes.

That is what party structure means.


This is not a permutation. It is a straightforward analysis. Counter it with superior arguments.

This post has only nuisance value.

The unknown maker of statement to an unknown blog even stated that Obi has not crossed the River Niger yet in terms of politics.

BlazinGlory40:
Who wins NE and NW?

.
Tinubu will win Borno and Yobe States Convincingly with landslide. He has given Kanuri people the highest shot at National politics in the History of Nigeria.

Tinubu will also have reasonable votes (40% above) in

Kaduna State
Katsina State
Gombe State
Zamfara State
Jigawa State


He will score above 30% in :

Kano State and Kebbi State.

MrFinbarr:
There's something you fools are forgetting, 2023 election isn't about the big politicians playing their usual games. It's about the common masses going for someone who they've believed in and bought his message.

I've been on this platform and monitored so many cycles of elections in this country. You can all deceive yourselves that social media have no impact, but we've seen in clear practical terms the power of social media in controlling the minds of people.

Look around you, look around the political movements so far even without campaign being officially open, and you still sit in your junkyard and lie to yourself that Obi stands no chance? I don't know how you APC minions think at times, I really don't understand it... Such shallow minded set of people.

Enjoy your delusions and dreams, while we see who gets the last laugh. And oh, this will be my first and last quote for you.

Below, 2019 Presidential Poll:

MrFinbarr:
There's something you fools are forgetting, 2023 election isn't about the big politicians playing their usual games. It's about the common masses going for someone who they've believed in and bought his message.

I've been on this platform and monitored so many cycles of elections in this country. You can all deceive yourselves that social media have no impact, but we've seen in clear practical terms the power of social media in controlling the minds of people.

Look around you, look around the political movements so far even without campaign being officially open, and you still sit in your junkyard and lie to yourself that Obi stands no chance? I don't know how you APC minions think at times, I really don't understand it... Such shallow minded set of people.

Enjoy your delusions and dreams, while we see who gets the last laugh. And oh, this will be my first and last quote for you.

Thank you, for your response.

Below, are PDP and APC presidential primaries polls on social media this year.

Betanaija42moro:
Here in Jos, the Obidient movement is stronger than what you have in most Southeastern states.

Thank you, let's start from there.

Talk about the 5 local governments he will win in Plateau State and two Senatorial Districts he will win in Plateau State and why he will win them.

JASONjnr:
You started off by trying to address tribal and ethnicity issues about this forum...Then proceeded to write trash and all was just about tribal...

You really need to know that the North will be divided...But the south will massively stand behind Peter Obi...

Obi will not win :

Bayelsa State
Delta State
Cross River State
Akwa Ibom State
Rivers State


Mention one prominent politician in any of those States in his campaign team?

DaddyFreeze2020:
Like most BAT supporters, you wish Peter Obi was not a reality.
In order to reject the reality, you will keep lying to yourself

You've not answered the question.

Mention one Northern Christian or just one Middle Belt politician in Obi's campaign team?

DaddyFreeze2020:
This your myopic permutations are being fondled by your wishes

Mention one Northern Christian or just one Middle Belt politician in Obi's campaign team. Let's start from there.

Do you know why I love and use Nairaland?

It's because it is largely an anonymous platform. People call it a tribalistic forum when compared to Twitter

Nairaland is not tribalistic because its users are tribalistic, but because people have the opportunity to bare their minds and what their communities feel.

Take this to the bank: Obi will not win Bayelsa, Delta State, Cross River State, Akwa Ibom State and Rivers State.

When you guys deceive yourselves that Northern Christians will vote Obi, I think Ayu that said he would resign if Atiku does not win PDP primaries is a Northern Hindu from Benue State? Yakubu Gowon, Danjuma who led the war against secession in 1967 were Northern Buddhists? These people know Obi's people can never like them. When the likes of Yakubu Gowon die they will spit on his grave like they did to Queen Elizabeth II.

Who were the past military leaders that Wike was talking about today who supported Atiku during the primaries? Are they not the same people that Obi snaps with?

The likes of Lawal and Dogora will work for Atiku when campaign starts. Imagine the bulk of Southern PDP Governors giving Atiku the condition of sacking Ayu a Northern Christian from Benue State yet he swears to maintain him over his dead body. Wasn't it the same Northern Christians that promised to zone it to the South in January that went back to give it to Atiku in May?

Ortom is a member of the PDP and complains about insecurity in Benue State. Isn't he Ayu's brother in Benue State that conspired to return Atiku? So Benue State PDP which Ortom controls will vote for Atiku then Ortom will support Obi?

Northern Christians are going to vote for Obi abi? Don't attack me o, just mention 1 Northern Christian politician in Peter Obi's campaign team?

Obi will come a distant third in the Middle Belt/North Central ( if Kwankwaso does not play his cards well). Tinubu will win the middle belt/North Central. Tinubu will win Kogi State, Kwara State, Niger and Nasarawa State. Atiku will win Taraba State.

Plateau State will be close between Tinubu and Atiku. It has a good number of Muslims and majority of the christians there will never vote an Igbo person. That's Yakubu Gowon and David Mark's state. David Mark was the head of the PDP convention that returned Atiku this May.
Plateau State Governor heads Tinubu's campaign team. Benue may go to either Tinubu or Atiku because he has held unto Ayu despite calls to let him go and promised them SGF.

Those from the Middle Belt already know that their son will be made SGF if Atiku or Tinubu wins. Will Obi give Vice President to them that they will vote for Obi? Are Senate President and SGF not the highest positions they have occupied since the inception of democracy in Nigeria?

Do what ever you like with this information.
Obi will not will North Central/Middle Belt or the South South.

Nigeria is a tough country to survive with a minimum wage of 30,000 naira (less than $ 100 USD per month).

To cater for one's family in Nigeria as a civil servant, one has to increase their income through begging or sharp practices while engaged in the civil service.

Go to Universities and Polytechnics, lecturers are selling handbooks to students. Some of these lecturers will teach you well and mark your papers well whether you buy their handbooks or not. Other lecturers will not teach well and score you low if you do not buy their handbooks. We don't spit on the lecturers because education is important.

Go to Immigration offices across the country. Staff are collecting huge sums to process passports. People even beg them to collect bigger amounts to process their passports faster. We don't spit on the staff because traveling is important.

Go to file court processes even in the court registry, you have to pay the staff extra money so that they can handle your files happily. We don't spit on the registrar because getting justice is important.

Try to book an appointment with a prominent person who has a busy schedule. You have to appreciate his P.A or secretary with money and airtime. We don't spit on the them because seeing the big man is important.

It is same at every government department in this country.

When the student returns from school and the lady leaves the immigration office to encounter a police officer at a checkpoint, he/she spits on the police officer because security is not important and the police was standing under the rain sun unlike the others.

Just like almost every lecturer sells handouts, most police men just beg for 100 naira or 200 Naira to complement their 45,000 naira a month without seeing their families. Not all of them are like the lecturers who victimize students who don't buy the handbooks.

Ask the drivers whose cars were auctioned in Lagos Last week, they'd be praying a police officer had asked them for 5000 naira or 10,000 naira at the spot instead. Ask G-boys wey dey EFCC custody, they will tell you they wished a police officer asked them for little at a checkpoint instead.

When e reach police officers we dey form sane clime. If police dem follow form sane clime tow people car wey default go station, car for finish for Naija. Though there are bad officers, let's appreciate the good ones please.

Double standards everywhere.

Period007:
Wheres Thiefnibus Primary school certificate
Wheres Thiefnibus secondary school certificate

Do you know Thiefnibu is the only presidential candidate without a primary and secondary school certificate?

Go low before Peter Obi is arrested for forging certificates

Obi doesn't know what green energy means so his cut and join certificate doesn't surprise me.

Obi would not be able to debate comfortably against JSS1 kids.

Argue with the video of Obi disgracing himself when he was asked a question below.

How will a GCE holder end ASUU strike? God forbid bad thing!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62ePU-selWQ

So we should all troop to ENUGU to "verify" which year he dropped out or what?

He could have saved us the stress by just submitting a university certificate to INEC if he had one.

Period007:
Wheres Thiefnibus Primary school certificate
Wheres Thiefnibus secondary school certificate

Do you know Thiefnibu is the only presidential candidate without a primary and secondary school certificate?

Guy make I rest abeg.

Peter Obi get certificate, he no submit the certificate give INEC?

Highest Peter Obi can get outside the South East is 10 votes per polling unit.

In places like Ekiti and Oyo it will be 10 votes per ward.

In places like Zamfara, Yobe , and Borno it will be 10 votes per local government.

Go an verify

Chnbanc:
It's
No big deal..
It doesn't stop you from munching Agbado this morning.

You never chop Corn flakes or Golden Morn before?

Coolbreeze1988:
This people mumu sha, so you people think INEC has not confirmed this results before clearing him?

He submitted GCE and Affidavit.

Amarabae:
Stupidity and dumbness should not be combined, my dear you need to pick one struggle.

The Saturday stuff(is the convocation date) and is when the certificate was issued,
For instance if unn is about to have its convocation on Saturday 24th sept, and they are signing it today being 22nd
What will be written today is that this certificate was issued on 24th September 2022.

I know genetically that you are not smart but atleast pretend that you are not a walking hazard.

Stick to ashewo and pedophilia, you dunce!


A University certificate is not signed on convocation. It is signed on the day the Senate approves that students should be issued with certificate.

This usually precedes the convocation.

2018 convocation at UNN held on the 1st of December 2018 which was a Saturday.

The certificate you guys brought above was signed on the 30th of November 2018 , A Friday.

The Senate cannot sit on a Saturday or convocation morning.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanguardngr.com/2018/11/convocation-unn-churns-out-11681-undergraduates-post-graduates/amp/

plusfield:
Let's assume there us nothing called Degree. Ibwant to assume am talking to an unbiased and reasoning mind. So please what did inec see that they classified as Degree for him?

Probably an affidavit

Chidibe212:
Me too

APC and other parties making something out of Nothing. Please help me ask them, the results submitted and published by INEC is it credible for presidential race or not?

.

He didn't submit any university qualification to INEC, that's what raised the issue in the first place. He chose to publish it on Twitter instead.

The Senate of University cannot sit on a Saturday.

It is the date the Senate of a University approves that graduates have distinguished themselves in character and learning that is inputed on university certificates.

The samples above were issued on a Friday which is a working day.

All university Certificates I have seen were issued on working days.

Do you go to the office to do formal work on Saturday and Sunday?

Why did the Senate approve Obi's certificate on a Saturday?

These are genuine questions that beg for answers!

Officialgarri:
All of a sudden, paper qualification don't measure wisdom

These guys tried for 8 years to pull down President Buhari (GCFR) because you claimed their was misspelling in his O'level. At the same time, you claimed he didn't even have a result.

These same set of guys successfully pulled down Kemi Adeosun that she has an HND and her NYSC certificate is invalid.

Then you come here today to tell us Peter Obi's result doesn't matter and result is not a measure of wisdom.

Explain double standard to me abeg...

Did it start today?

As the Chief Security officer of Anambra State, 100s of Anambra men who were in police custody were gruesomely murdered and their bodies dumped in a River.


Peter Obi absolved the commander of the defunct SARS in the State and placed a bounty of 5 million for anyone that can reveal those responsible for the extrajudicial killings even though the community and Anambra people were pointing fingers at the OC of SARS in the state who would later be incorporated into politics in the state until the Endsars riot of 2020.

When we asked for the Probe of Peter Obi, they said that a Governor is not in charge of policing in his state despite monthly security votes.


Soldiers dispersed protesters in Lagos more than a decade after Tinubu completed his tenure as Governor.

The same people said that a former Governor has power to order soldiers (not police o ) in his state.

Until this past Monday they were still questioning the paper qualification of Buhari who had military training in the United Kingdom.

Until this past Monday they were still questioning the paper qualification of Tinubu who graduated summa cum laude from an elite American University.

Boom! INEC released its list and and it was revealed that Obi had no proper university qualification to submit.

The music changed to "Paper Qualifications Are Not Important".

Nigerians do not need a GCE holder to lead the country. Obi will fail woefully!