₦airaland Forum

Trevor012:
Paafin as well but the dumb oleouters did not agree. They kept on writing trash with confidence. Look at some of the clowns below

You must be a clown, like we’ve won a trophy already, right? Heck we have not even played 19 EPL games yet.

Please stop the shitshow and focus on praying that OGS does not bottle the next cup game and the EPL lead.

BARAJ92:
When did we play Leeds, Was Pogba involved? Even in those matches Bruno and Rashford always rescue us at the end

Pogba dey live rent free for this guy’s head o, better don’t kill yourself. Pogba no dey go anywhere o

Main man!

2 red cards?

Leequte:
So... in summary, win trophy with Lingard and Pereira...?

There are cups na, Europa league, FA, Carling, that we can win, but have not won since OGS became the manager.

Lingard, Pereira and co have won trophies.

Thanks Bailly!

Leequte:
Chief. I didn’t imply anything o. I just remember say na you talk am.

Na lie ?

I said the players can win something, use what you have to win trophies. Of course, you cannot have 11 superstars. You can only have good and average players.

Same players amassed 81 points in a season under Mourinho na. Shuuuu

Leequte:
Na nitrogen talk am. I remember

Lol, what’s the diff sef? According to you guys, AWB, Magwaya, James, are still useless..

Unlimited22:
Oga Patrick why now? Why?

Nitrogen, I do not totally agree when you say China are copycats and do not have the tech and innovation yet. This one no be true o.


Unless you're talking about hydrogen fuel cells exclusively.

Look at the story of Nio.

Trust me, China is all about espionage. The country sends scientists/spies to various countries and major companies to steal ideas. The stuff is diverse and multi-layered. Energy, supply chain, manufacturing, IT, defence etc.

I did a study on some of China’s major techs and how they were acquired.

What I like about China though, is execution and speed, even though they sometimes sacrifice safety and quality because they want to quickly dominate markets (esp. emerging ones).

Sniper4real:
that bailly injury is not even a serious one. he sud be able to play next match

Amen o, the guy is very good, but this injury wahala ehn, I dont know o.

Ibime:
Good point but Tesla PPE at cost is $22 bln which can be surmounted. Infact some of these are probably overinflated on Tesla balance sheet, for example he bought solar gigafactory from his cousins at $3bln which was seen as a massive overpayment. Other automotive companies are buying smaller EV companies with technology, same way Elon bought Tesla so they don't need to waste much time in the early stage. With many of them switching production to China, they will tap into much cheaper means of production there and PPE assets will have also become more efficient and cheaper in terms of utility derived per investment. The game is also open for highly capitalised players like Amazon and Google which is more competition beyond the current automakers, plus Chinese cars are reaching the level of quality to pass regulatory barriers to Western market entry so more competition.

Hmmmm, when you say cheaper means of production in China, is it cheap labor or technology or both? My understanding is that cheap labor is no more an advantage, there are more middle-class families than before in China. If it is technology, China imitates, they don't have the tech and innovation yet. A major reason why Tesla has got a factory in China is access to that middle class. China is the world's biggest car market, there won't be the need for Tesla to export cars at high tariffs from the US to China. So, basically, the cheaper production story is difficult to sell these days.

Also, I do understand that traditional players like GM, Ford etc, and tech companies like Amazon, Google have corporate venture capital arms for the acquisition of EV technologies, but then, a major problem is the scalability of those technologies. Commercializing acquired EV technologies (in large quantity) is really tough, that's why they continue to do internal R& D even though they buy a lot of start-ups every year.

Finally French and German Governments aren't sleeping. They take great pride in their automakers performance and French Government own 10-15% of all their car makers. You will see these governments deploy all sorts of subsidies and research from EU research centres to give their companies competitive advantage.

On top of that you have Hydrogen technology which will make EVs obsolete as Hydrogen is carbon neutral. EVs would get tariffed or even banned should hydrogen become viable, and you have companies like Toyota pursuing Hydrogen strategy heavily.

Trust me, those governments cannot match the efforts of the private auto industry in North America.

Hydrogen technology? It is still nascent, and even if huge success will be seen in the next 20-30 years, the issue is, hydrogen fuel cells cannot beat battery tech (VW already confirmed this, Toyota is just wasting its resources). Hydrogen in cars won't be efficient. The reason the world is talking about hydrogen is that it can replace natural gas in industrial and domestic heating, as well as the prospects of using it in trucks, ships, and maybe for electricity storage. Finally, hydrogen is not viable without pipelines for transportation purposes. Existing gas pipelines are not suitable for transporting hydrogen, therefore, huge capex will be required for new or modified pipelines. Also, moving it in small quantities using trucks is very expensive. Implication: Tough to boost the availability of hydrogen (domestically), while it is very easy to have EV charging stations everywhere within a very short time.

EV is the way to go, other auto players will play catch up for years, but they will eventually get there. However, don't forget that Tesla is not just about cars, other segments of the business will pick up big time in the next few years. Investors believe that the platform is ready for growth and efficiency, and they also think that the other segments of the business will make up for grounds lost by 2040.

Ibime:
That's a red herring. CoC is cheap across the board right now and applies to all the automakers, and they will all be producing exclusively EVs in 2040 so those environmental costs won't be a factor. You can just predict future cash flows by applying a market share percentage. Forget the time-value discounting and just assume they increase gross with inflation to arrive at the same CF each year in Present Value. If we use 38 years which is the current S&P PE ratio and is a consensus number that allows you to forget discounting, like I said Tesla needs to hit 40+% market share to justify current price.

True, however, have you considered the fact that many of Tesla’s competitors will do a lot in terms of capex to get to where Tesla is today, for example, they need to convert most of their manufacturing and assembly sites to ones suitable for EV manufacturing, they need to do lots of inventory disposal, what about capex for innovation and technology?

Tesla’s platform is top notch and well integrated, the company just needs to build on existing platform for growth, while others would need to transition slowly before they even talk about growth. Designs and feel of Tesla’s products are special, which can lead to customer loyalty (highly valuable, even though it’s intangible), a very good example is Apple and their products.

Agree that by 2040/2050, most players will probably be at the same level, but, what happens between now and then? Maybe that’s what investors are considering.

In addition, I believe that investors are looking at some level of operational and manufacturing efficiency in the nearest future for Tesla, which means improved margins and free cash flows.

gameboy727:
That injury wasn't his fault. Henderson kneed him in the head. How could he have avoided that?

Not this particular one. We all know how stvpid Bailly can be on or off the ball.

Smellymouth:
Wondered why bailly even started this game

When you know what his injury record is, surely you'd want to rest and protect one of your best defenders..

Question is, when are we going to stop protecting him? He should use his sense when playing na. Which kind Wahala be this?

Ibime:
I just did something comparable to a DCF methodology up there without the discounting to show that Tesla needs 44% of future market share to justify current prices. This has gone past DCF into madness and greed.

Well, cost of capital assumption is very key. Also, there are other factors. E.g. Emission levels expected from other manufacturers can result in lower cash flows (in form of fines and/or ESG capex) or slightly higher cost of capital, since they may not be able to borrow at competitive rates.

Ibime:
Belief must translate into numbers in the long run. SpaceX and Boring company ventures will not bring any numbers to Tesla. I think people are conflagrating both. Teslas primary business is storage of electricity in small quantities and sale of cars and car technology which is a finite market that can be quantified and valued.

When a stock price starts behaving like Bitcoin, you know you have gone past rational analysis into the territory of wild speculation driven by cult of personality. Who knows, e fit be newly minted Bitcoin millionaires pumping up Tesla price with their new found cash.

Agree with you sha, current valuation is speculation driven. What I know is, most analysts don’t care, they will continue to look out for business plans that justify new high stock price.

Low interest rate is also a major issue, when rates are low, assets are generally overpriced.

I see that stock at 1k by year end.

Beorn:
I doubt you're watching the game or else you won't be making the statement in your last paragraph.

Did you even watch how he got injured? He was clashed into during an aerial contest between our keeper and a Watford player. He had no choice.

I am watching it. We can’t continue to keep a player that gets injured every time, I don’t care how he got the injury, how many matches has he played this season sef?

Comparable, precedent transactions and net asset valuation methodologies are out through the window. The world is doing a DCF for Tesla, and I believe they will continue to update their analysis with Elon’s big plans until he messes up.

Ibime:
This is their revenue breakdown so as far as I can see, they are an automotive company with a 6% side hustle in low KW electricity storage, unless you are talking of something that hasn't materialised yet.

Well, valuation is the present value of future cash flows. If you have big dreams and the world believes you can achieve them, they will factor that into your market capitalization.

Smellymouth:
So United went to the championship and overlooked Benrahma and Eberechi Eze and ended up with Daniel James..

Ryan Giggs really though he advised man utd correctly with James.. Smh

Nepotism and favouritism.

Bailly injured? Nawa o, he should fuvk off!

Ibime:
Tesla is not getting 35% of any market. They will be lucky to get 10%.

Let's get to some numbers to see Teslas potential slice of the pie. Total yearly revenue of all auto companies last year was $1.03trn. Net margin is 4-5% so let's assume $50bln net margin. To get to valuation, let's multiply by S&P500 current PE Ratio of 38 which is $1.9trln. Tesla valuation is already 44% of that.

When we start talking of $25k cars, Tesla Net margin will drop to Industry standards. Ford makes $2.2k Gross profit per car for example.

Take another approach - About 65 million new cars are sold per year. Going by Ford's average Gross profit per car of $2k, that is $130bln per year. Again we can assume after overheads, $50bln of that is net profit. So once again, Tesla would have to control around 44% of the total car market in the future with a payback period of 38 years to justify it's current valuation ignoring inflation.

The current behemoth of the auto industry, Toyota has a market share of 10% and we still have other players to come such as Google, Amazon, NIO, other Chinese and many Euro consolidations and buy outs of smaller EV companies with good EV technology in Europe. So putting Tesla at 44% market share is nuts.

Tesla is not just an auto industry player, business model is quite unique. Maybe you should consider including potentials of other aspects of the business in your analysis/valuation.

Of course, current value is not justified, but focusing only on one segment of the business for your analysis won’t work.

Good goal!

Unlimited22:
We're saying the same thing. Wework were a landlord masquerading as a tech company, bamboozling investors with buzzwords and having a greedy idiot as a CEO.

Tesla, on the other hand, actually have a product that people want to buy. And they are working on growing and monetizing their Network of charging stations for other EVs, which is why they want an industry standard charger across board. That will give them a signifucant first mover's advantage.

Plus the work going on, on hydrogen fuel cell technology.

IWG are a landlord too with a billion dollar valuation, and they are PROFITABLE.

Tesla's valuation is excessive and it will definitely ride a few lows, but their tech can actually carry them to even more highs. It's not just cars.

Wework, on the other hand, sold a dream and had a cash injunction that made those valuation ridiculous.

I agree with you that Tesla has products (aside cars) for customers. Most solar+storage developers like Tesla battery packs, most municipals prefer to have Tesla charging stations (to enable them achieve their smart city goals).

Elon has got big dreams, and he is an execution guy. That is what people are buying. Investors believe that he can achieve the other big stuffs he has in his pipeline because there is low execution risk. Ambition and execution ability are very important.

My fear is that Elon is going to break the conglomerate into several public companies. Check out Brookfield. Conglomerates typically trade at discounts, so he might want to have the companies listed. Of course, it will affect those currently invested in the holding company, except there will be some sort of compensation.

Oasis007:
Solskjær: "Odion [Ighalo], it's special for him against Watford, he will be involved, he's in the squad, he's been training really well, he was the top scorer in round robin we just finished."

Ode!

So, he wants Ighalo involved because he was at Watford? Hopefully, the poor man performs well. We just wasted money and time!

The loss pain me small o. Same team took us out of the competition last season, even though we won them 3 out of 4 times.

We go ever win any trophy with OGS so?

Leequte:
I don’t know about others but for me, Bruno sometimes make some decisions which, if not rushed, would’ve gotten us a goal or a good chance at least.

That’s my beef with him.

I don’t care if he loses possession trying to make an adventurous pass inside a crowd. I won’t berate him for that- as long as we don’t concede from it.

However rushing decisions when there’s still time, space, and options won’t go unnoticed by me. There was an instance yesterday where we were like 3 on 2 and Bruno attempted a one-time, very difficult to execute pass to Rashford. He miscued it and we didn’t score. That was the wrong move to me, not gonna lie.

You don’t have to be a Zidane or Iniesta to figure that out.. Why rush and lose the ball when you could still make magic happen 2 seconds later?

That’s the ish I’m gonna criticize him for. Not gonna spare him in that regard.

Tenkyiu

Thanks for this.

chineduisaac:
Isn't it possible to get a direct flight to Mauritius?

Closest to a direct flight is SAA. Lagos to Jo’burg, then Jo’burg to Port Louis.

I was in Mauritius about 2 years ago, return trip was mad, SAA gave me a business class ticket. A six hour flight (from Jo burg to Lagos) became a two hour flight sharp sharp...

^^^^

GloryIsaac:
That’s one of the numerous advantage defenders like VVD have over him. Maguire can easily hit 5+ goals a season if he learns to nod accurately.

Magwaya should stop nodding when we are attacking jare....Baba will now hold his head after nodding nonsense, like say he almost scored. He should stop the sh1t!

I don’t think we’ve won any big game this season, maybe PSG. Something is wrong o

Uniquisite:
The same team against Aston villa with 5 day rest play slightly changed City with 3 day rest..

Why the team chop 2? Na coach? Who he suppose use? Start James?

We must learn to accept opposition tactical superiority.. What City played today, majority of our player no fit.. See the calmness, crispiness, transition here and there and energy. We have our strength though but... Ole is the problem

It took 2 extra days for OGS to come up with this shyte performance against City. OGS used same players to beat City last season na, abi I lie?

Be there deceiving yourself!

airmark:
Na this period afrodoc2 will be busy injecting wrongly malarial patients with Vancomycin injections.

Holy sheet!