₦airaland Forum

opaclem:
🏢 Oando Plc – Q1 2025 Financial Summary

Reporting Period: January – March 2025
Prepared by: ChatGPT
Date: June 24, 2025

The "major pipeline vandalism they were battling in Q1" reported by yourself a while back, is obvious in this result.

If they have now been able to achieve 34kboe which was their 2024 exit production rate in Q2, then Q2 should be much better. I assume pipelines have now been fixed. In fact, I expect 34kboe should be a base rate not target.

I could be totally wrong with this one but I'm inclined to think the tax credit might be related to reimbursement of JV infrastructure repair costs. Industry upstream GM is about 50% if I'm not mistaken so reporting a loss is very unusual.

Pennystockwarri:
Hi everyone. For those who have questions on Ellah Lakes, please join this Twitter space on Sunday June 15 by 5pm Nigerian time.

The company’s management will be present to answer questions

https://x.com/i/spaces/1ypJdZODmqpKW

I was pretty impressed that you guys could arrange a Q&A with an NGX listed management. Well done for all the work done behind the scenes to get the management of Ellah to front up retail investors.

Is there a chance you and your team could do the same with Japaul Gold? I believe it would be mutually beneficial for both the company and would-be investors or punters

N.B: Not a recommendation to buy or sell Japaul.

Locotrader:
Do you know why I put more attention at Ellah?
As a veteran in the stock market I know that Ellah is an underpriced asset hence my bathmouthing for corrections.

Cileasing is another underpriced asset.I don't even need chart to confirm it.
Unless the mgt does not want their share price to rise.Cileasimg assets has risen to 113B naira and revenue 37B naira in 2024.
Just a positive Q1 result will push it to 100%.The Q1 result is not yet out but we have the record of activities done in the leasing and marine industries in Q1 2025.Cilleasing as a leader in the industry must have contributed to the sector.We await the Q1 and 2 results respectively to judge.

Wait! You believe Ellah is "underpriced" like C&I? Based on what? Is this position not contradictory to your commentary on Ellah for the past weeks? When did it change? There has been no updated results since the last quarterly.

You realise you just admitted to manipulating unsuspecting NSEMPA members who follow you? It is underpriced so you badmouth it for what reason? Locodemy !!!

Loco, make you dey take am easy o. Money is not everything bro. There is more to life than riches.

N.B: This is not an endorsement of your position on C&I.

nosa2:
We dey here. I am not selling. I will hold the shares into the new entity

There is no "new entity acquiring Ellah".. Ellah is looking to ACQUIRE an entity and it's not even a rumour except a name is being mentioned on the streets. Chuka already announced on live TV (Arise) that an M&A was cooking. He said he will release the news on the NGX first when the interviewer pleaded for the news to be released via Arise TV.

They say "seeing is believing" but blessed are those who have not seen and yet have believed.

2025 - Year of exponential growth. "The young shall grow".

Locotrader:
On CILEASING matters

Peace Mass bought majority of the Cileasing shares at 4.75

Current Share price 4.80.You can see beans is not yet grinded

I hope you won't end up monkey hunting yourself

Convertible loan stock is not the same as ordinary shares. You sef do the maths. 300M+ of convertible loan stock @N4.75 each, translated to 900M+ ordinary shares. What is the cost per ordinary share? Hint: It is multiples cheaper than you are buying now. But to be fair, that transaction is already a few years old so it's as expected.

As for free float, I suggest you wait for the 2024 audited results where all will be laid bare for us to see who owns what.

PuristForest:
Something interesting is happening for those looking for some budding opportunities in....articles are free
https://ewnation.com/apples-low-price-is-a-good-bet/
https://ewnation.com/are-teslas-beautiful-bulls-coming/

Re Tesla: Is this regardless of the sour relationship between E. Musk and D. Trump?

Sunrisepebble:
I don’t agree with No.5. The liabilities on the balance sheet is not a joke

No be attack o and make you no take my post personal. If you can be kind enough to share your thoughts on below queries that would be good.

Why do you think Oando can't get out of their financial mess ever? At least, that is how your response came across.

What is the no-joke liabilities? N6.8T
What is the total assets? N6.4T
Equity? c. (N400B)

A negative equity of N400B is insurmountable for an O&G company sitting on 2P Reserves of 1BBOE with a net cash flow of N16.5T over the life of the producing asset?

P.S. Not a recommendation to Buy or Sell Oando.

BabsO2:
A key summary:
Ellah Lakes converted 3.1 billion naira debt to equity, leading to the listing of 1.1 billion additional shares on the Nigerian Exchange

This translates to N2.82 per share for the conversion. This is likely part of the shares sold between end of January till date at an average price of N3.2 in the market.

Possibly. Also, they will likely raise more equity this current year. Potential headwinds for the SP in the short term but I believe in the business. I understand their strategy but magement just needs to be a bit more transparent or forthcoming with information.

thebargainhunte:
It is ambiguous, they should have stated where the revenues came from.

Not explicitly stated in the report but take a listen to below interview conducted after Jan qtr result.

https://www.cnbcafrica.com/media/6369844572112/ellah-lakes-ceo-dissects-31bn-debt-to-equity-conversion-/

The revenue will continue to grow exponentially for the rest of the year. We are not talking about P/L or dividend yet o so best to stay clear if that is what you are after. Management should be grilled about the Oil mill commissioning. What is going on gan gan?

Mpeace:
Ella no go get much changes in the report. They need to only announce start of production to record movement

I'm inclined to think Ellah will move regardless. I expect increased revenue but from sales of palm fruits. The market SHOULD inteprete that as trees maturing and fruiting. The mill is what ignites the SP though. All IMO.

essentialone:
Afrinvest have terribly bad technical issues. Their I.T. guys are whack. Their network is always Freezing or Unresponsive. Their Customer Care email is hardly ever responded to, but Afrinvest is definitely not a Scam!

I recon it's more a Naija expression but you have interpreted it literally.

When a Nigerian says "that guy na scam", it doesn't mean the guy is a scammer. It means the guy is not who or what he appears to be, so will fail to impress, under-deliver or fall below expectation.

Another example is food with tantalising aroma but disappointing taste......"The jollof rice na scam".

@Mankind2024 - To avoid needless repetitive post, please have a quick read of my previous opinion on Ellah. Revenue is from sale of palm fruits ONLY , and unfortunately, until CPO mill is completed.
@HesInMe - N780k @ FYE '24 vs N18M @ 6mths '25 is a red flag?
@Locotrader - Qtrly report is not due until later this month. It is for the period ended April 2025.
@To whom it may concern - In my opinion, revenue for the qtr ended April is your cue. Q1 N280k, Q2 N18M, Q3 ?? Plus what would the balance sheet look like after the recent loan/debt to equity conversion of N3.1B?

Please do not BUY, HOLD or SELL based on my posts.

Omooloriredade:
Post is not to convince anyone to invest. Just my opinion.

I strive to understand the business or operations of a company before I buy their stock.

You know how Dangote has a big refinery but relies on others for the feedstock (crude)? Imagine if Dangote has producing fields that could provide the feedstock for his refinery. Procurement costs will probably be lower and operations will be much more efficient leading to improved margins in the refinery business (that is, Aradel on steroids).

Now think of Presco and Okomu as refineries with producing fields. They operate a refinery (CPO mill) but also own farms that supply the feedstock (Fresh Fruit Bunches). Also, as a matter of fact, they rely on local farmers for supplementary feedstock supply too. Note this point as I'll come back to it later.

Traditionally, you start with the farm which takes time to mature. In the mean time, you build your refinery (CPO mill) and infrastructure.
Ellah Lakes is doing all of these. They are due to complete their refinery 9CPO mill) Q1 CY25 according to management. I must acknowledge this milestone should have been achieved last year.....so it's crucial they don't miss this target again. Ellah Lakes does not need to wait for fruits to mature to start producing palm oil. Once the refinery is completed, they will source the feedstock (FFBs) from local farmers.

Remember my Dangote refinery analogy? So to assume they won't generate any revenue for another 5 to 8 years just demonstrates a lack of understanding of the industry. It's not about when they reach peak production as such. It's about firing up the CPO mill, securing supply of FFBs from local farmers and it's happy days for everyone.

By the way, Ellah Lakes sold N780k worth of Palm fruits as at FYE 24. You can expect sales to increase from here on but hopefully not from selling off FFBs that should otherwise be processed if CPO mill was completed. Already at N249k (Q1 25) from sales of Palm fruits only. Management intends to commence Oil production in H1 25 which is already upon us. CPO mill is optimally positioned where the farms are concentrated.

Personally, I focus on the operations that drive the numbers others want to see. So disregarding other lines of production (Piggery and other cash crops but follow the money on that Piggery o). This is what operations would look like going forward:

> Complete CPO mill (criticial milestone)
> Negotiate and secure supply of FFBs from local farmers (Competitive but crucial to success and can be done before previous step).
> No need to sell your own FFBs either. They can now maximise value from processing them.
> Process FFBs into Palm oil
> Commence sales of Palm oil
> Sell off Palm Kernel fruits
> Acquire Palm kernel mill and start palm kernel oil production and cake etc
> Commence sales of Palm kernel oil etc
> Crops mature and produce feedstock for the mill leading to increased margins.
> Expand milling capacity and acquire more acreage for long term growth.

Why is there sudden increased trading activity? My theory is that the market is positioning to see if Management's target will be achieved. Forecast was for CPO mill commissioning by Jan - Feb 2025, then production commences immediately after.

Hey! Please note that I am not an Agric expert neither am I an investment advisor.

HesInMe:
No nah. You know I read and respect your opinions. My question was, Why invest now?

Okay, let me offer why not now, then tell me where I'm wrong: That the stock is trading on Presco stardust that will dissipate soon; that their most prized assets, oil palm seedlings, are 5-8 years from peak production; and that the company effectively has zero revenue and is burning through cash.

Post is not to convince anyone to invest. Just my opinion.

I strive to understand the business or operations of a company before I buy their stock.

You know how Dangote has a big refinery but relies on others for the feedstock (crude)? Imagine if Dangote has producing fields that could provide the feedstock for his refinery. Procurement costs will probably be lower and operations will be much more efficient leading to improved margins in the refinery business (that is, Aradel on steroids).

Now think of Presco and Okomu as refineries with producing fields. They operate a refinery (CPO mill) but also own farms that supply the feedstock (Fresh Fruit Bunches). Also, as a matter of fact, they rely on local farmers for supplementary feedstock supply too. Note this point as I'll come back to it later.

Traditionally, you start with the farm which takes time to mature. In the mean time, you build your refinery (CPO mill) and infrastructure.
Ellah Lakes is doing all of these. They are due to complete their refinery 9CPO mill) Q1 CY25 according to management. I must acknowledge this milestone should have been achieved last year.....so it's crucial they don't miss this target again. Ellah Lakes does not need to wait for fruits to mature to start producing palm oil. Once the refinery is completed, they will source the feedstock (FFBs) from local farmers.

Remember my Dangote refinery analogy? So to assume they won't generate any revenue for another 5 to 8 years just demonstrates a lack of understanding of the industry. It's not about when they reach peak production as such. It's about firing up the CPO mill, securing supply of FFBs from local farmers and it's happy days for everyone.

By the way, Ellah Lakes sold N780k worth of Palm fruits as at FYE 24. You can expect sales to increase from here on but hopefully not from selling off FFBs that should otherwise be processed if CPO mill was completed. Already at N249k (Q1 25) from sales of Palm fruits only. Management intends to commence Oil production in H1 25 which is already upon us. CPO mill is optimally positioned where the farms are concentrated.

Personally, I focus on the operations that drive the numbers others want to see. So disregarding other lines of production (Piggery and other cash crops but follow the money on that Piggery o). This is what operations would look like going forward:

> Complete CPO mill (criticial milestone)
> Negotiate and secure supply of FFBs from local farmers (Competitive but crucial to success and can be done before previous step).
> No need to sell your own FFBs either. They can now maximise value from processing them.
> Process FFBs into Palm oil
> Commence sales of Palm oil
> Sell off Palm Kernel fruits
> Acquire Palm kernel mill and start palm kernel oil production and cake etc
> Commence sales of Palm kernel oil etc
> Crops mature and produce feedstock for the mill leading to increased margins.
> Expand milling capacity and acquire more acreage for long term growth.

Why is there sudden increased trading activity? My theory is that the market is positioning to see if Management's target will be achieved. Forecast was for CPO mill commissioning by Jan - Feb 2025, then production commences immediately after.

Hey! Please note that I am not an Agric expert neither am I an investment advisor.

Youngzedd:
BUAFOODS is overbought at the current price. As you highlighted, it's just a portfolio balancing.

Based on the new facilities they're working on, I believe the future is bright for BUAFOODS.

It's for a long term by the way, although I am currently in profit.

Copy that. Cheers.

Sunrisepebble:
In what direction. I think UACN is fairly priced, not Unilever

I haven't really done any indepth analysis of their results. Unilever TA seems to indicate investors were keen post Q4 results. Please take my TA with a pinch of salt. Which implies the market likes the result possibly indicating a resurgence in business growth. I didn't study historical results either. Potentially, SP won't retrace (taking your opinion about its current SP into account).

If the above holds true, I expect the market to reprice UACN. Incoming demand that may drive up the SP.

All in my opinion.

Youngzedd:
Their EPS is usually low.

Oh, I see! So what then is the investment thesis for this one? Just curious

The reason I ask is that my loyalty is to my portfolio so my decisions are usually based on investments that offer the best returns, whether dividend income or capital appreciation. Not really a fan of "billionaire" owner companies except they offer exceptional portfolio returns.

By the way, I do understand the concept of balance/diversity/mix of stocks in one's portfolio so I'll just cherry pick stocks from sectors that appeal to me.

Not having a go at ya mate. I have just always wondered what the attraction was in this one. I could be missing something here.

Mpeace:
UAC OF NIGERIA PLC.- Q4 UNAUDITED FINANCIAL STATEMENT FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 31 DEC 2024
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/43034_UAC__OF_NIGERIA_PLC.-_YEAR_END_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2025.pdf

The market will most likely correct the Unilever vs UACN SP with this result.

Sunrisepebble:
Both can be true
The business is good
The stock is overvalued

Well, I assumed every investor's goal is to buy good undervalued businesses. In other words, invest in good businesses at a bargain.

When choosing whether to buy a stock or not, you want to consider if the business is good and if the price is right among others. Paying the future valuation for a stock because you believe it's a good business is not best practice in my opinion.

Back to BUA, I'd compare with other companies in the sector and work if it's the best use of my capital before buying. From where I stand, it is not but it's just an inconsequential opinion. Everyone is the master of their portfolio.

Cardinalstone forecast was quite close sha. Not my kinda stock.

Youngzedd:
BUAFOODS

Impressive

Really? You reckon an EPS of N15.27 is impressive for a stock trading at N415?

That's a whooping PE of 27.18 at FYE. Why don't you compare with other companies in the same industry/sector to see if it's actually impressive or not? #Sector analysis o.

You send N415 on an errand and it returns with N15.27 earning. The bar has really been lowered sha or am I missing something?

Sunrisepebble:
I’m exiting my Seplat Position to port to Aradel and grow my holdings there. Far more upside considering the valuation

Hmm......Seplat is a very good company. Worth holding for long term in my view. It's good for an income focused portfolio I just don't like the stock.

In terms of bvps, Aradel is trading at a higher multiple though.

Disclaimer - This is a personal opinion, may be misleading and it's subject to change.

#Musings only

If Oando goes ahead to buy the refinery in the Caribbean or anywhere else, it will be a terrible decision in my opinion. They are not exactly known as an exceptional or efficient management yet. Even if they are, it's still a bad business decision at this stage.

The upstream and power segments remain the cashcows management should focus on while growing other business segments. Margins in refinery operations are thin. Dangote might be able to squeeze a slightly higher margin than Aradel refinery because of economies of scale but it still won't be comparable to upstream business. Refinery business is not as profitable as a lot of people imagine it to be.


The segment reporting is simple and clear enough to buttress my point. Aradel is focusing on the upstream and experienced the highest growth and margins in this segment. It is an open secret. 13,751 bbls/day in a $82.3 per barrel market. Take advantage of the stable and high prices now by channelling your resources to the business segment that offers the best returns. Good company. That production figure is ahead of Oando's FYE 23 and Q3 24 results. How? Not good enough on Oando's part.

Oando just needs to ramp up production. No excuses.

Omooloriredade:
There's a school fee paid in the insurance sector. Some have probably never paid this before.

When a company declares a good result one quarter/year, don't assume there will be a repeat in subsequent quarters/years. You might say it's normal but wait, it's actually more pronounced in this sector.

Veritas 9mths vs 6mths results is a clear example of this. They can get hit by claims that wipe off previous gains. Some insurance companies are just perennial under-performers in this regard. Not saying Veritas will or won't break out of the rat race. My point is to be cautious with their results and not make unrealistic projections based on one report. Personally, I'd only take short term positions.

Na so. Poor Veritas.

Same care should be taken when considering IEI. If you want to JIJO, please by all means do so. You can make good money. Look up their segment reporting to understand what is driving their income. Motor insurance is not a profitable and enduring insurance business in Nigeria. The profit you see today will be gone tomorrow. Diversification is the key to survival and the secret to thriving in the industry.

All in my opinion, I have been wrong many times in the past. Also, if you hold Veritas or IEI, this is not an "attack" o

Omooloriredade:
Reactions to results released so far have been interesting.

For those that have been condemning Aradel's result, can you please do a comparison to that of Seplat and share your findings? Best practice is always a like-for-like or industry comparison.

Aradel is currently outperforming Seplat in my opinion and it's still very much cheaper too.

Please note that I didn't consider the potential impact of Seplat's acquisition of Mobil assets in my assessment.

Disclaimer - This could well be one of the many occasions I overlooked critical factors. Please do your own research.
Disclaimer -

I still maintain Aradel is a better buy.

emmaodet:
Valuation of your Ellah Lakes -
Many stock traders and even short/medium term investors mostly shy away from stocks like ellah lakes because it is hard to value or measure due to little or no revenue and profit but the good news is that anything and EVERYTHING has value and can be measured.....ANYTHING .. from accidental cars, scraps, rags, feaces / human waste....anything, just anything.
Ellah Lakes falls into stage 1 or 2 of corporate/business cycle and the characteristics are - little or no revenue, no gross profit down to negative or expanding operation loss and loss after tax plus expanding/diluting outstanding shares.
This is the terrain of Venture Capitalist and not traders or investors until it starts declaring revenue and profit.
So how do we value a non-profitable company/stock? or a stock not generating income? One out of the best valuation tools in our valuation box that fits this class of stock is TAM - Total Addressable Market

Your head is correct .......well done!

HesInMe:
Don't take it personally na. If it helps, pretend that you're educating the group.

Ok, I took the bait....haha. So like I mentioned in my initial post, I am still doing DD. In fact, I'm yet to study the company as a whole. Something I must do before I consider buying except I just want to Jijo.

I was not impressed with their Q3 24 result despite the YOY growth in metrics but I have been studying the INDUSTRY they operate in.

My reference to Moneypoint was because they have virtually the same licences to conduct the nature of business Moniepoint does. However, does Chams' management see and understand this market? Do they have plans to tap into the potential in this market? They have been around for a while so what is their problem?

Again the market potential is massive and it is still at a nascent stage in Nigeria and Africa at large. Transaction switching, mobile banking, fintech solutions etc

There are opportunities for growth so Chams remains on my watchlist as per my initial post. Not suggesting Chams is going to a $1B valuation but highlighting the market potential if they get it right in the fintech space.

By the way, I'm really intrigued by the growth Moniepoint has experienced since inception. So I ask what did they do so well? What is spurring their growth etc. One of the founders happen to be someone close to home .......family friend, Staff school, Odogbolu, Ibadan ati bebelo.

Finally, one key market announcement that provides a clear direction of where management is headed or indicative positioning signalling business intention is what the market needs. I alluded to this in my very first post on Chams.

HesInMe:
Pee. Let me give you the floor. Tell us more about this Moniepoint-size potential you see in Chams.

Unfortunately, I can't seem to find a justification for engaging further on Chams and on said potential. To what end I asked myself? If you read my initial post but didn't seek to understand the first time, what is the guarantee you will see my perspective no matter how hard I shalaye.

I can't match your energy today. Chams na pig abeg.

* No comparisons mentioned.
* Clear disclosure including that Chams was on my watch list, not held yet and not being recommended.
* Didn't say I was going to buy.
* No mention of any short term rally.
* Didn't equate potential to Moniepoint. That was your interpretation. I had addressable market potential in mind and didn't suggest Chams was going to attain such valuation.

#Edited

HesInMe:
Comparing Chams with Moniepoint is so wild, I'm not even going to bother to say why.

Buy Chams if you want. Maybe if they nab a big government gig, the stock will rally. But please stop calling a pig a unicorn.

Chai!!! Too much zeal. Be calming down......haha.

A single sentence that says next to nothing about the exact potential in Chams I refer to led you to these conclusions my disclaimer notwithstanding?

Sunrisepebble:
I asked it again because I didn't get an answer the first time. The "FA" I was given is that the Market Cap will soon be 40-65bn but I wasn't told why.

NB: I genuinely have no opinion of the stock if it is coming across that way. I just feel there should be a justification or investment case for the stock alongside the marketing

Ah! All good then. I agree with the bolded.

Sunrisepebble:
Does FA tell us to buy Chams?

Pretty sure you have asked this question before and I infer from your posting you don't see value in Chams. Apologies if that's a wild assumption.

Loco, the Chams ambassador, has been overwhelming us with his "FA' for a while. I suppose you are yet to be convinced.

Unfortunately, I don't have an opinion on the FA yet but Chams remains on my watchlist.

Moniepoint Inc, now valued at over $1B, does remind me of the potential in Chams though so we continue with DD.

Disclaimer - I do not hold Chams (yet) and I'm not recommending a trade.

October 2024 assessment of Chams.

Omooloriredade:
The next news Chams releases must be a good one otherwise ........

There's a seller that needs to be taken care of (or sorted) and a liquidity event is needed to achieve this. It could also be the MM running the show.

November 2024 assessment of Chams.

Omooloriredade:
One chairman has been selling Chams for months now. You get too excited or impatient and you drive up the price to N2.1x and he just supplies the market like....calm down with the gragra. It was interesting to watch yesterday but keen to see the Locotrader magic when the market opens later today. The Calvary may well have arrived to overwhelm this off-screen seller. I can see he is rallying the troops. I hail o.

Disclaimer - All in my opinion which is not gospel so please dyor. Also, my assessment of trading activities in Chams could be wrong.

Same story in January 2025. Will it change at some stage? 100%. If I were an investment advisor (unfortunately, I'm not), I'd say buy or hold but don't expect a SP rerate immediately.

But NEVER fight a motivated deep pocket off-screen seller. You don't know who the entity is and how much they've got to sell or how long they are willing to play the game for.

Reason I wonder why people get into TA vs FA arguments. FA tells you WHAT to buy, TA tells you WHEN.

Omooloriredade:
There's been an appreciable influx of FDI into agriculture particularly livestock farming and meat processing. Good for the industry and Nigerians at large.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/brazilian-meatpacker-jbs-agrees-invest-25-bln-nigeria-build-six-factories-2024-11-22/

https://punchng.com/chi-farms-plans-2-5bn-livestock-investment/

https://punchng.com/saudis-1-2bn-investment-to-create-more-jobs-for-nigerians-fg/

Follow the money, they say.

Disclaimer - I do not hold and I'm not recommending a trade. Just observing.