₦airaland Forum

At All, I'm not suggesting anyone to jump into Japaul o. There is a process involved and your investment timeline may be out of sync with the process.

Most importantly, success is not guaranteed. As with all things exploration, time, luck with mother earth and capital are major factors.

Also consider that market revaluation is not done when outcome is known. The market uses a sliding scale method to value a stock/project/company as the project is derisked.

Disclaimer- Please do not buy or sell Japaul based on my posts.

Streetinvestor2:
Haba my oga.You posted hope villa of November 2020.This is even red flag because by now they should have told us how much gold they already have in the market

You read that link but you still believe they should have told us how much gold they have in the market?

No disrespect meant o, you may need to read it again. There is a process to follow. It's not the best to condemn without first understanding.

At All, I'm not here to attack anyone so if I step out of line (which I will from time to time), please call me to order. I'd appreciate if we can engage in intellectual discussions as we are all here to make money and it's more fun that way.

nedu666:
Oga loco. I asked you a question. Pls where exactly is this japul gold mine located

We Nigerians are notorious for answering questions with questions so please permit me to ask:

Are you asking because you don't believe they have a mine? Do you know what stage of Gold exploration Japaul is currently at?

I would have provided a direct answer but I'm not sure of your motive for asking Hope you realise I'm not accusing you of anything o.

I believe you would benefit more if you did some digging of your own. Let's discuss based on your answer.

godlyguy:
So why haven't japaul started mining the gold since 2020?

So you have been fed the name and profile of the "audio investor " but obviously there's more questions from where that came from.

If I may ask, why don't you do this research yourself? There are so many tools you can use to research in this age. You will be amazed at what you find if you even start with Google.

However, I can understand if you can't be bothered researching a company like Japaul because of their antecedents.

If that were the case, don't you think it's illogical to make sweeping statements about investment in a company for which you have not done much due diligence?

Did you know there's a market syndrome that makes you averse to stocks, businesses, sectors, people etc that have caused you loses in the past? It's natural but you can't project your fear on other people.

You may be suffering from market PTSD. Instead what you should do is to actually revisit the source of your fear to see if you can learn from it. What could you have done better? Equip yourself with knowledge and continue to build on it. Also there are different strategies of making money in the market depending on investor profile.

Seek to understand the business, sector, processes, stages, growth catalysts etc. This is also FA ALL OVER THE WORLD. FA is not just EPS, PAT alone

Please answer these questions:

What does Dangote refinery financials look like at the moment? Specifically, revenue, assets, liabilities, profitability etc

How will you value the refinery?

It took a few years to build the refinery. Would the refinery be valued at N0 until completion?

Your views are well appreciated. Please appreciate and accommodate other people's views too. It's not good behaviour to start calling people names and accusing them without proof.

Trust me, the only way to "be wise" is to equip yourself with knowledge and understanding.

If my post appears too blunt or rude, abeg no vex. I tried to be careful as much as possible without you perceiving it as an attack.

Disclaimer - This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock.

2zona:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLjbWIZ9YU0?si=aqF5qcpcrsElIoCA

I said I would only post about Oando if there is official news. Happy to take this one as official.

According to this interview:

1. Okpai IPP supplies 15% of Nigeria's power needs. I believe he meant Nigeria's power consumption.
2. Current Oil production in the JV is up to 40,000bbls per day.
3. Oando has no interest in the O&G downstream.

1. Can we lay to rest the argument about whether the JV Power plant supplies power to the National Grid or not? I believe some assumed it was just for operations and supply to the local community.

2. For context, based on the 2023 report, Oando's daily oil production was sitting at 6,024bbls per day. Currently, it is 8,000bbls/day excluding ENI's portion. That's a 33% growth. Expect that number to increase to 16,000bbls/day (now including ENI's portion) in the Q3 and Q4 2024 results (a 166% growth) ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL. Please note we talking about the Oil component ONLY. It does not include the Natural gas and NGL production. Up to you if you'd like to imagine they would have increased by the same margin.

3. As previously explained, company's strategy and vision was to divest from low margin downstream operations. There was no sense in all the street rumuors but you can't control how people speculate so you just allow their imagination run wild in an endless loop of speculations. Makes no business sense to continue in the marketing of petroleum products. In fact, there is no company operating in the Upstream that would be keen to supply a local refinery as they would have to do it in Naira as per the PIA. They are all after the petro-dollars. Hence the reason why the NNPC will have to supply local refineries (Dangote et al) from their own share of JV production.

Disclaimer - Not suggesting anyone should buy or sell Oando but just providing commentary

yMcy56:
Unbelievable!!
So I haven't seen or handle money of such size or handling money of more than x10 of such size?
Naturalflow, you're just unbelievable!

These allegations are heavy you know!
But I'll let it slide. We are on faceless forum, so you're free to say whatever you like.

My online warmth towards those monikers you mentioned is just to assist myself as well as others.
.

When are you going to realise you need to restrain yourself from carrying on about this matter before you post something you shouldn't post yourself? She has not even had chance to respond to your queries yet. Please let it go. We all make mistakes. Your own might land in your next few posts.

Bovali could have stuffed up with that comment but she is still one of us and could well be your sister. When you correct someone be graceful about it because you are imperfect yourself.

Bovali is unique and appreciated regardless. She brings something to the group no one else can perfectly replicate. Same as everyone that is a member here. We are all unique and add beauty one way or the other.

Emir01:
Oando may Land @ 1000 if care is not taking, people will turn it into crypto. Wait and see.

Would you kindly look up the meaning of Market Capitalisation and how it's calculated?

Pulling out numbers out of thin air when forecasting SP without consideration for MCap is a sign of sheer ignorance of the stock market and company valuation. Howelse can we get everyone to understand this elementary concept?

No vex o. It's just mind-boggling.

yMcy56:
The news of NNPC being the sole buyer of PMS from Dangote is a positive news for O&O.....
Just my opinion.

Pls where is @DeruggedProf ?
He predicted these moves earlier before this!
Let me search for the post....

How is it a positive news for Oando? Oando has divested from the downstream business?

Good pickup with Aradel @Sunrisepebble

Streetinvestor2:
The only bad I did is I decided to share information I got from someone here.who I had equally shared information on japaul from him here long ago.I never said buy hold or sell oando. I said he said I should not worry that oando will do 100 and I refused to mention the second figure so that it does not look I am marking oando.
And the only reason he gave me was because of the strong political will in support.
Infact he mentioned the kind amount I could not believe chasing oando. And because I want to be 100 % immune. I said I will pull out all money I did put in the gamble which is not even big.And if you go back in my early days in oando. I mentioned the amount and said it is what I can afford to loss if wale decided to delist at #7 plus and later increase it when I went for second batch.

I have integrity.And for my friend who want to bet.I will share all my oando dealings when I go and get the remaining print out to date here.If you have another request do make it

I believe you Mr Street. Why would you buy at N85 when there were countless opportunities to buy in the teens? I recall your buy-out expectation was N20 back then so you must have already taken position.

Did you accuse chairman of monkey hunting and manipulation when he gave you that information? I guess you didn't.

Why did you think everyone was monkey hunting here? Was it the aggresive rise in SP that made you think so or the non-stop chatter about the hotest stock in the market? What did you expect? I suppose you were just comfortable to state your bet naija strategy at N10 until it started taking down your SP targets one after the other. Then you became aggresively vocal about how some people were manipulating the SP. Then, out of the blues, story changed after speaking with chairman. It might be the reason some people assumed you sold out and just got back in. Nothing wrong in selling o but I believe you haven't sold sef.

Please don't bother proving anything. We plenty wey just finish NYSC like your son here. You don't need to drag anything with us.

MARKETJJC:
Senior! Point of correction, it is no longer 19mil but 30mil and still counting ..

I will put 19mil you asked for if you will put you trade history on Oando here at least one year. I am game on this one, please appoint arbiters

I'm inclined to think he hasn't sold his Oando. You should know that. Don't gamble your sweat away just like that.

I reckon he has just been fighting a few unnecessary battles.

1. His conscience pushing him to fight for what he thinks is right - protecting newbies.
2. The fight to prove he is right - Oando don cast.
3. The fight to prove he can't be silenced - He perceived some persons didn't want him to share negative views about Oando.

Unfortunately or fortunately depending on which side of the fence you sit, his respected contact confirmed what some people saw at below N10. As far as he was concerned, it was manipulation and monkey hunting until chairman confirmed what it. Now he believes something is truly happening.

Everyone is gonna be alright.

megawealth01:
2024 Q1: VFD Group reports N3 billion in pre-tax profits

https://nairametrics.com/2024/05/27/2024-q1-vfd-group-reports-n3-billion-in-pre-tax-profits/#:~:text=VFD%20Group%20Plc%2C%20a%20leading,the%20same%20period%20in%202023.

Just in case someone sees Q1 EPS of N10 for a stock selling for N40 and was wondering:

Since that result was released. There has been a significant change that anyone looking to buy should consider.

There was a stock split (x5). So the N10 EPS in Q1 is more like N2.

As at Q2, EPS was N2.45k.

Disclaimer - Not a buy or sell recommendation.

Sunrisepebble:
Aradel is the one that's increasingly promising, they're due to list on NGX next month with a share dilution of 20x, so if you enter now on NASD, could still see very good returns, the price is high sha, best offer is N5,815 right now but when it comes to NGX I think the market will try and price it near Seplat.

It doesn't work that way. The market will not price it near Seplat. If it's diluted 20x like you stated, it's share price will not come anywhere to close to Seplat's. It's all about the MCAP. You can't look at SP in isolation.

naturalflow:
I no dey chop this kind fish oooh,no vex.fish wey dem don point and kill since.

Fair enough! There was no point saying it can't be C&I when you didn't even bother to check.

It is C&I.

naturalflow:
It can't be cileasing,cp will never touch it.if loco said ogg talked about it,then we know.

Them give you clue, we give you answer you still dey question. The time you took to type your response could have been used to do a simple research that confirms the answer.

It's time to start fishing yourself o.

Locotrader:
I don come again.
Point & kill

There is one stock which 3 persons here has hinted on but has not gbe body.

This stock has 64% presence in Nigeria
25% presence in UAE
11% presence in Ghana.

The stock is currently trading at 3.00
About 1.3B OS and 24% free float.

My oga cp used to hint on the stock in those days before it embarked on reconstruction.

The stock is back on its feet with a strong balance sheet.They recommended 5kobo dividend recently.

If you decode.......the time is now.Enjoy

C and I Leasing.

Disclaimer - Not a recommendation to buy or sell

crownprince2017:
I believed future is predicted based on past, is there any listed companies that have done farming on paper and run away with investors money? Am just curious, may be am missing somethings.
Those pushing big big money into the company are fools that did not see reasons to put their money beyond wills..

Well, time will tell in ogg voice.

I can confirm 100% the farms are not audio. A combination of the 3rd qtr result and news out there indicates the farms are in operation though not at full capacities. Some of these may be subsequent to the end of the quarter ended July 2024 so may reflect in the October 2024 quarterly. Crops details will include Palm oil, rice, Piggery and possibly Soya. Certainly not full scale yet. Baby steps. Further share dilution involved but I like the story developing here still.

ndept:
Good to see your take on Ellah/Elijah Lakes This are the things we want to see on this forum, not the posts of the sadist/juvenile above. It is always the sweetest to get into a stock before the stock's upward journey begins. But then, it is worthy to note that Elijah lakes activities are always characterized with "WILL", yet no practical activity to suggest reality on ground. That is why someone classified them as AUDIO FARMERS. The most recent discussion we had on Elijah lakes on this forum was to the effect that someone promised to visit their farms physically to assess their work and feed us back, which we are still waiting for. We are missing some people like Sir wanajo, he would have given us the inside and off the street analysis on Elijah lakes.

Which one is Elijah again? What's the stock code make I check am out?

As far as I'm concerned, while having palm trees growing on their farms will be a good thing, supply of feedstock for their CPO mill is more critical. It doesn't have to come from their own farms FOR A START. Palm trees take time to mature. Ellah needs to hit the ground running. You can't install a CPO mill and live it to rust away for 2yrs while waiting for your trees to mature.

Okomu and Presco even with their farms spanning hectares of land still integrate supply of Fresh Fruit Bunches from local or commercial farmers. Ellah needs to start their own input/supply scheme.
So the deal for me is for them to have completed the installation of the CPO mill and locked in supply of FFBs. As at last report, this should be completed by now. Fingers crossed.

Crownprince2017 made a good point about the other crops with much shorter maturity and cycles. Yes, I hope they made a start on those ones already and it's not audio still. You know it will be poor financial and strategic planning to spend millions to procure a CPO mill now then wait 2yrs for your crops to mature before you could put it to use. You could as well push those funds to cash crops with shorter maturity and cash out until your palm trees reach optimal yield stage.

My strategy remains the same, root for the underdog, watch them actualise their dreams and when the market comes calling, collect good dowry.

I like the unfolding story here. Business not difficult to understand either.

Disclaimer - It's obvious a lot is yet to be confirmed and this is just my personal opinion so please don't rely on my posts/sentiments to make your buy or sell decisions.

@Crownprince2017

They said you should go and learn how to quote someone o

Yes, they are targeting a few cash crops too.

Palm Oil, Soyabean (Soya oil), Cassava and Maize.

"Ellah Lakes Plc. currently owns 2400 hectare Greenfield palm plantation in Edo State (on which planting has commenced and mill installation is to take place before end of Q1 2024), 5,000 hectares in Ondo State (to be used for planting of Cassava, Soybean and Maize), and approximately 3,700 hectares, located in Enugu State which is being developed for the cultivation of Soybean, and Rice. The company went into a public private partnership with the Enugu State government, taking over a strategically positioned business in the state. Three leading FMCG companies in Nigeria have already been signed up as off takers for our produce."

This one too na hope level o - #green shoot. Keen to read their next report.

As for Ellah, another company I'm following, their FY'24 result is expected first week in October.

At the very least, I hope they have completed the installation of their CPO mill in Edo state and onboarded local farmers to supply Palm fruit bunch. They were well behind schedule for planting of their own crops as at the last update. Also, I hope the MOUs/JVs with partners or State govts have kicked off.

My expectation is that the market will look kindly on this one considering the industry in which it operates if it can show some progress. They are cashed up and ready to go. Major concerns are security, farm encrouchment and availability of palm fruit bunches (they will be competing with Okomu oil for supply of fruit bunches in Edo state).

Disclaimer - Please do your own DD. I wouldn't encourage anyone to make investment decisions based on my posts.

megawealth01:
Talk joor... You know I don't bash people... I'm too matured for that

Haha.... But I don't know the future nah!

If they announce a gold discovery, chances are the SP will rerate. I listed the possible SP catalysts in previous post.

If they are unfortunate to not find gold in commercial quantities which is also a probability, yawa don gas be that.

Unfortunately, unlike other market jurisdictions they don't report exploration progress so investors can act early.

They intend to acquire some assets and develop them, so the future still looks bright. They are also sitting on one or two discoveries but not sure how substantial it is. Looking forward to the near future for this company.

megawealth01:
In summary it will increase or decrease?

Unfortunately, I couldn't tell ya. I suppose we all sit back and watch as things unfold in the coming months?

Omooloriredade:
I don't know about buying a stock and going to sleep o. If it's to make money and get out, 2025 is Japaul's year in my opinion.

IF they can successfully complete their gold exploration activities, commence refinery operations (or at least be close to starting it).
They will be back to positive equity off the back of the recently concluded placement.

SP catalysts to look out for:
* Commencement of their N25B dredging contract in the Lekki/Ikoyi axis. This remains their major source of revenue for now.
* Successful completion of their diamond drilling program that could lead to a gold discovery and increase their reserve.
* Completion of their gold processing plant, refinery and other acquisitions.
* Ramping up of their mining business.
* Bonus is if private placement was to institutional or foreign investors. I don't think so though. The new shares represent 57% of the issued share capital.

These are all FA events but not what most here are familiar with. Same situation with Oando.

Disclaimer - This is not a recommendation to buy or sell Japaul. I have been wrong many times before.

So I have been banned from posting about Oando I'll take the back seat on that one.

Shey I can sha post about Japaul.

Let me start with this news first:

https://www.prweb.com/releases/japaul-gold-secures-20-million-capital-commitment-from-global-emerging-markets-gem-302228359.html

A Share Subscription Agreement with GEM (a $3.4B alternative investment group). Japaul draws down on this facility as needed and issues shares to GEM. Not a bad deal.

If anyone is keen, go have a look at their new look website:
https://www.japaulgroup.com/

Apparently, Mining of solid minerals is the new focus and they have since established a new team to run with it. MD/CEO started early 2024. Team in place to manage the business.
https://www.japaulgroup.com/executive-member#

Pretty sure they still have a multi-billion NAIRA dredging contract to execute but I'm keen to see how they go with their mining experiment. Hilarious that they referred to their dredging business like it's past tense now
I'm inclined to think they have completed some sort of drilling at one of their sites in Osun state. They are currently prospecting for Gold in Osun state. Result collection and lab analysis maybe the next step. I'll be looking out for their results. A sizeable gold discovery will be a company maker on its own.


I wish them well and hope they find something economically viable.

Disclaimer - I may be posting my findings or providing commentary to news but they are in no way recommendations to BUY or SELL Japaul. There is no guarantee they'll succeed in the mining business.

emmanuelewumi:
I just love this fine print, smart guys who don't want to be involved in any risk or litigation, but ready to corner the profits


1. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the contingent resources.

2. There is no certainty that any portion of the prospective resources will be discovered. If discovered there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources.

Haba!!! These are industry standard way of reporting things nah. Please take a moment to read through bank prospectuses and financial statements to see how banks also protect themselves when they make projections.

As for the O&G sector, this is how it is worded all over the world. Forward looking statements are NOT a certainty and you don't provide probabilities IN FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS.

That said, let me explain what Oando released there:

Oando has released their Reserve estimates to the public. Seplat also did same. Please note it is usually a combination of 1P, 2P and 3P. Pretty sure it's mostly 1P and 2P. Fact!! You can look it up too.

Reserves are not individual company projections. They are certified estimates.  Internationally recognised and licensed bodies in the O&G industry provide these estimates based on data acquired from well exploration and appraisal activities. These are well known industry data. Neither Oando nor Seplat generated these reserves themselves. They can come up with their own in-house estimates but it won't be accepted across industry or by financial institutions.

Did you know Oando is in Joint venture with IOCs and FGN? They are reporting their own fraction of the internationally certified JV reserves.

When an oil well is appraised (oil was already discovered so they want to confirm quantities and flow rate), the outcome is that you book contingent resources. Further appraisal activities lead you to book Reserves.
Now see below classification of Reserves:

• 1P = Proved reserves with at least a 90% probability of being economically extracted.

• 2P = Proved + probable reserves with at least a 50% probability of being economically extracted.

• 3P = Proved + probable reserves with at least a 10% probability of being economically extracted.

For exploratory wells where you are still seeking to confirm that the field actually contains oil and gas, prospective resources are the numbers released. The well may well be dry but you can't confirm until you drill.

Now see below classification of Prospective resource estimates:

• 1U(P90) = The prospective resource estimate has been set with 90% confidence.

• 2U(P50) = The prospective resource estimate has been set with 50% confidence.

• 3U(P10) = The prospective resource estimate has been set with 10% confidence.
U means unrisked or not tested yet.

Contingent Resource sits in between Prospective resource and Reserve. Once well is drilled and oil and gas is found, you book Contingent resources meaning recoverable O&G has been found but they are not able to be pulled out of the ground economically. This status can change if there are no infrastructure or regulatory barriers to extraction AND after a successful flow test i.e oil flowed out of the ground at quantities or rates deemed commercial and at acceptable well decline rate.

Now see below classification of Contigent resources:
• 1C = The contingent resource estimate has been set with 90% confidence.

• 2C = The contingent resource estimate has been set with 50% confidence.

• 3C = The contingent resource estimate has been set with 10% confidence.

Below snips are for your reference too - Reserves classification and Seplat's FLSs

Disclaimer - This is an opinion based on company and industry facts. Everyone is encouraged to fact check them regardless. However, please do not make a buy or sell decision based on my posts. I'm not skilled enough to make SP projections. Just here to follow developments in listed companies.

Bagwa:
Today marks a historic milestone for Oando PLC as we proudly announce the completion of our agreement with Eni for the acquisition of 100% shares of Nigerian Agip Oil Company Limited (NAOC Ltd).

The signing ceremony, held at The Peninsula Hotel in London, cements our position as Nigeria's leading indigenous energy solutions provider. This strategic acquisition aligns with our commitment to driving Nigeria's energy transition and bolstering our portfolio.

We are excited about the growth opportunities this presents for Oando PLC, our shareholders, and the Nigerian energy sector.

We look forward to leveraging the acquired assets to further our goal of providing efficient and sustainable energy solutions for all.

Stay tuned for more updates on this game-changing development!

As expected, Oando will come out firing on all cylinders to sell what this means and the outlook for the company. This is the way it is done. WT intends to mint this opportunity. Hopefully the long-suffering shareholders are the major beneficiaries.

One other thing that caught my attention was the fact that the signing ceremony was done in London. Pourqoi? My eyes lit up when I read that. Eni is Italian, Oando is Nigerian and there's Transcorp Hilton in Nigeria's capital Abuja. Are they eyeing a LSE listing? A path to carbon neutral upstream production will be essential to getting the Londoners on board. I find they are pretty switched on in the O&G space. The LSE has stringent listing rules too. You have to release financial results as and when due. Disclosure rules are not what I think Oando can cope with. I may well be getting ahead of myself here. Pure mindless speculation maybe.

Disclaimer - I'm not suggesting there will be a SP rerate so if you're looking to grow your portfolio, please don't make investment decisions based on my post.

Raider76:
I am sorry but I can't find your bolded statement anywhere in the text. No mention of SHAREHOLDERS but only STAKEHOLDERS seen.

Please look up the meaning of "stakeholders" first, then read the entire paragraph and you will understand why "stakeholders" was used. Not having a dig at you at all. Responding because of innuendos that could arise from this so don't take it personal

Looking to the future, we will continue to pursue strategic diversification opportunities within the broader energy sector that provide enhanced growth and value creation for our stakeholders, particularly in clean energy, agri-feedstock sector, as well as energy infrastructure and mining.

Oando is diversifying into certain sectors as part of their "clean energy" strategy in partnership with other organisations or governments. For example the CNG (compressed natural gas) buses being rolled out in Lagos. I encourage you to google CNG buses. You will find that the FGN also met with Innoson for the manufacture of CNG buses and they may also be looking to import some.

Agri-feedstock - Oando's role here is the provision of the gas required to produce fertiliser for use in the agric business. Look this one up as well. They claim to have substantially reduced their gas flaring as part of their Clean energy strategy instead harnessing that energy for power production.

Considering these projects are not being done in isolation but in partnership with other organisations, governments and agencies, STAKEHOLDERS was the most appropriate term to use.

Also, note that Oando's upstream assets are in JVs with different entities including the NNPC and IOCs. Being an operator in the upstream sector for such high-level entities is a big deal. The use of the word "stakeholders" was apt.

The Clean energy mantra is what all IOCs use now to attract capital. Some funds, banks, portfolios will not invest in projects that are not environment friendly.

Disclaimer - Please do your own research and don't take my posts as gospel.

Bagwa:
OANDO FULL BID TOMORROW SIGNING CEREMONY FOR ACQUISITION

@mikeapollo

I failed to convince you this was an industry trend and that it was going to happen. Guaranteed!!!

After this, Oando releases a formal announcement on the NGX and JSE. I expect the markets to respond positively off the back of this event/announcement. The JSE investors don't read Naija newspapers as a basis for their investment decisions. I suppose they rely on official JSE regulatory news services for that. Needless to say the NGX leads the JSE though in terms of sentiments towards the stock so the NGX will be the driver.

Further to the signing ceremony signalling the official conclusion of the acquisition, Oando may opt to hold an investor presentation/webinar/Press conference. It is usually a follow-up on the ceremony. What happens here is that the company provides some more details on the outlook of the company with an opportunity for industry analysts, institutional investors, Press to ask questions. However this is not compulsory so not guaranteed. Or it could well be combined with the ceremony who knows. Most companies are strategic, they will keep them as separate events.

Oando settling above N40 before the next set of SP catalysts augurs well for punters. It's a good base to launch from.

Disclaimer- I have been wrong many times in the past. Please don't take my opinion as gospel.

Agbalowomeri:
@Omooloriredade you are loaded with too much secrets o and you say you no be old man😂

I am a young man please. Still learning.

Apologies for the back to back posts. Make I just get this one out.

The stock market throws up some rare opportunities every now and then. It's not regular. Totally random.

If you are lucky to identify and key into them, they transform your life. It's like a lottery.

I have a story with Nascon. When Dangote was going to buy into Nascon, I stumbled on that information and bought some. Nascon was selling for some ridiculous amount back then may be something like 20k or even less. Same price as Afroil (if you know this one you don see life...haha). I no be old man o , just started way too early for my age in that era. Nowadays, everyone knows about stocks, crypto etc.

Just relying on hope ( not a reliable strategy) I loaded up Nascon with all the money I could gather. After Dangote bought Nascon, something I had never witnessed happened. Nascon entire shares were RELISTED on the NSE at a ridiculously high price. I don't remember exact figures any longer. Maybe something like N8. I remember waking up to see my portfolio was in millions. I nearly went crazy that day.

Please don't assume I'm suggesting you buy stocks like Afroil with the hope you wake up one day and it has multi-bagged. Afroil gave me the ticket to the millionaires club back then. I was a reckless boy. SMH.

Wapco also did something similar when it fell from c N80 to N15 some years back. Julius Berger another recent example.

These days, what I like to do is to follow the stories of companies to see where there could be such opportunities. I have different portfolio strategies so please be guided. They may deliver much more than the average returns.

There are largely four categories:
1. Companies with good history but going through a rough patch and now showing green shoots. (NGX) - Oando Japaul
2. Companies just starting up but in a very rewarding sector. (NGX) - Ellah Lakes (New owners)

3. Companies in the resources sector at their exploratory phase and looking to make a discovery. This one na 50-50 but there is a way you trade them - buy early and free-carry before drilling starts. There is usually a SP run just before the drilling campaign starts( Not really on the NGX).
4. Tech/Biotech/Healthcare companies on to the next big thing or working on a novel idea. Very risky this one. Again, learn to free carry before results. (Not NGX).

Disclaimer - My personal stratety will most likely not work for you so please do you own DD and follow advice provided by your financial adviser.

Another point I'd like to make is that there is so much diversity in the market. If you went to Oshodi market today, it's not possible that everyone in the market will have the same mindset, strategy, goals, product to buy or sell etc.
There is no one-size fits all strategy in the market. You need to consider demographics, individual goals, environment etc.
An elderly person approaching retirement will be more risk averse than someone just starting off his career.
A high networth individual will be more concerned about capital preservation and stable income than a low income individual seeking a big break.
A trader will be more active in the market than an investor.
Portfolio or position sizing will determine stocks that an individual can trade. It doesn't matter if a stock will double in two months, it's just too illiquid for some to trade. They won't go there.
Some people just need to buy once or twice in a year and sell once or twice the following year. It may appear they are "missing out" when they are not following your own strategy but investing N200m in one or two highly liquid stock at the right season (after corporate actions or usual yearly lows) and selling at just 50% gain the next year is N100m without any dramas.

Believe it or not, some are not even after growth as such again. They are contented with their portfolio size and just want a regular dividend income to meet their needs.

When you understand this, you would respect people's decisions with their portfolios.

Owoblowblow:
Oga, I'm one of your fans oo but it seems you were not patience with OandO when you exited. I love you analysis and when you share positive outlook of NGX

It's all about making money. You can take sell when you are satisfied with your gains. It's not a loss.

Choiceguy take note as well re Eternal.

My opinion re Oando and not wanting to pay the dreaded school fees

STOP here if you're an INCOME investor with long term views.

If you have an aggressive growth portion of your portfolio, you may continue.

It applies to trading in all markets actually - learn to take profits and free-carry your position. For example, you invested N5m in Oando at N10. Oando got to N49, you could have sold off N5m worth at N20, N30 or in the N40s. That way you have preserved your original capital leaving your profits to run. If Oando fails to reach the lofty heights you thought it would reach, you stand to lose nothing because you are free carried.

If you're lucky you could even sell off N10m worth at N40 so you have original capital and profits from the trade. Your profits are diverted to stocks with low risk, income generating stocks or investments. Anything that happens after that has little effect on your portfolio. Oando is high risk, high reward as we have seen already. It's likely to outperform the market if the turnaround is confirmed. Tread with caution.

It's perfectly normal for someone who has had their fingers burnt in the past to be terrified by a candle. It doesn't mean stocks that have failed in the past can't transform other people's portfolios. You just have to apply learnings from the past for future trades. For me, I'm constantly reviewing what went wrong? What could have been done better? Then I apply. If it works, all good. I'll do a review again. If it doesn't, I'll review my actions. Pretty much like AI. Refining and fine tuning your strategy until you have mastered it.

My sister has a portfolio with FBNH as the major stock. She bought it during the N30 public offer some years back. Imagine, FBN offered shares at N30 years back. Understandably, she has an emotional attachment to it because of that. I decided to help her. The only rule is, I can't touch that FBN. The portfolio is looking so much different now (multiples of where we started from) despite the fact many withdrawals have been made. Life changing for her. FBN is not even up to 10% of the portfolio any longer.

After all is said and done, we will all be alright. Goodluck to everyone.

Disclaimer - You're more likely to win some but lose more if you don't get your strategy right. Consult your financial adviser for your investment decisions.

megawealth01:
You don't know JEGEDE... Who are the new investors? What are their names?

Anyone buying JAPAUL and Firstbank for long term at current prices eh under JEGEDE and OTEDOLA is trying sha

I don't know about buying a stock and going to sleep o. If it's to make money and get out, 2025 is Japaul's year in my opinion.

IF they can successfully complete their gold exploration activities, commence refinery operations (or at least be close to starting it).
They will be back to positive equity off the back of the recently concluded placement.

SP catalysts to look out for:
* Commencement of their N25B dredging contract in the Lekki/Ikoyi axis. This remains their major source of revenue for now.
* Successful completion of their diamond drilling program that could lead to a gold discovery and increase their reserve.
* Completion of their gold processing plant, refinery and other acquisitions.
* Ramping up of their mining business.
* Bonus is if private placement was to institutional or foreign investors. I don't think so though. The new shares represent 57% of the issued share capital.

These are all FA events but not what most here are familiar with. Same situation with Oando.

Disclaimer - This is not a recommendation to buy or sell Japaul. I have been wrong many times before.