Omooloriredade's Posts
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vacanci:You sure you read the report? Interesting! The goal of my post is not to confuse or convince you to buy Ellah Lakes. I'm drawn to point out a few things so you have a better understanding when looking at reports like this. In fact, I encourage you to not touch Ellah Lakes with a long pole. It may not be good for your portfolio or health. They are still haemorrhaging. Pretty sure you are smart enough to know this anyway. * Sitting on N3.9B in retained losses. * N260M loss in the October quarter alone * Possibly on track to reach N1B by year end. Well, change in financial year end to December in play here so may be restated......... Let's leave it here.* Private placement to raise capital is still ongoing. For how many months na? O gi ni? So instead of CNTRL+F to find "PIGS" in the report, maybe try "biological assets"? Permit me to provide a summary of the farm related items of interest to you. No photo o so e fit still be scam or audio. ![]() Plantation value as of 31st October * Palm - N594M (A N109M addition in the October quarter) * Others - N80.5M Livestock value as of 31st October * Pigs - N51.2M (Wait! What! It's in there? A N31.8M increase in the Oct quarter. Plant and PEN construction as of 31st October (You may need to look up the meaning of the bolded. Please let me know what you find) *N256.5M (A N48.5M addition in the October quarter) * Safe to assume CPO mill construction is included in "Plant". Hey! If you are free on Thursday say about 11am, while not jump on the Zoom link that will be shared by company for their AGM. It will be live streamed. I hope shareholders that receive this link will be kind enough to share it here. At the very least, it could provide some comic relief for you? The scam shouting fit go next level after the meeting sef. ![]() Disclaimer - Not a buy or sell recommendation. Ellah fit be just lake o as we no see any photo. DYOR. |
If I say I'm not confused about the SUNU's continuous rise, I lie. Surely, it doesn't have the best of results in the sector. So what is the koko? Congratulations to those holding it o. No be bad belle o. |
Raider76:Maybe more information will be released/mailed/emailed to shareholders next week?? Not making excuses for Oando o. Just trying to reason the matter. |
mikeapollo:I see. Makes sense. Not contesting your position. I'm not making sense any longer sef so make I rest small. ![]() |
Final thoughts on this Oando announcement. As far Oando is concerned, this debt for equity swap is no biggie. They have been doing it for years except you have not been reading their annual reports. The only thing that is different now is the pro rata allocation of the shares of these UNKNOWN entities to existing Oando shareholders. @Mike please note no where did the announcement mention a cash consideration. The shares in the entity will be distributed according to your percentage holding in Oando shares (in layman's terms otherwise look up pro rata). Ideally, an email or letter should be sent to all existing shareholders prior to the AGM. That's the only sensible thing to do. How do I vote or instruct my proxy to vote if I'm not there and you did not already provide details? |
mikeapollo:No it doesn't work that way. While preparing report for Q3, all business transactions for that quarter will be reported. Also, note that Oando takes over the assets and liabilities of NAOC so results will be consolidated eventually. If I buy your business, I buy everything you own including your account balances, debt or liabilities, everything except anything that was already excluded in the negotiations. Next year, after the consolidation, Q1, Q2 that were standalone in 2024 will be restated in 2025 quarterly reports. Disclaimer - I no be accountant o but this is my understanding of how things work. |
HesInMe:Just in case you missed the first part of my post. I started by asking what was huge in the announcement? Investors can not make informed decisions based on the info provided. Have a read of my questions again. The part you quoted is "for benefit of doubt". What would you say if management already considered some of the questions posed and have answers to them? Striking a balance in your analysis especially when you don't have all the facts is a good practice. I am in no way deluded about a special dividend being handed out. No cash payment is proposed. I have always maintained and even opined in the post you quoted that Oando should focus on paying off debts before anything else. However, management proposal could be a reward of some sort even though the ultimate goal is an accounting abracadabra. Balance sheet makeover. My questions already addressed the reward........what is my gain if I can't monetise it? So please read my post very well. Pretty sure I covered most of the issues if not all based on the available information at our disposal. As for the Asset rich entities, again we don't have enough information to make a determination. Hence the reason I started with IF, again condition for it to be considered a positive. I don't know if it is. If you were wondering if it is possible for an asset rich entity to struggle with payment yes, it is. I recall quite a few gas-powered Gencos struggled with settling their debt to the Gas suppliers at a time because Discos were unable to pay them for energy supplied. The system was so broken the FG had to step in (possibly a problem they can't be absolved of in the first place). Not going into the details of what they did or if it resolved the issues. That's another long story. Also, some JV partners in O&G are well known to struggle with meeting cash calls yet they own appreciable Working Interest in lucrative oil blocks. It could just be sheer mismanagement or inidividual management prioritisation of capital allocation may not align with JV interests. Look up NAOC vs Oando debt case that only got resolved as part of the acquisition. Summarily, read my post again. I tried to be as balanced as possible. I didn't go off maybes. My thoughts are based on announcements released by the company and annual reports. |
bovali:The 27/11 to 29/11 closure does not affect the special resolution regarding the distribution of shares. Register will be reopened after 29/11. It may because the company needs to send out notices, proxy forms etc. However, if you are interested in the share distribution, then you gotta be a shareholder on the day the resolution is passed which is the AGM day (assuming shareholders vote in favour of the deal). Also note that shareholders will not be alloted the shares on this date. It may well be months after so it won't matter if you sold after this date (same way dividends are administered).
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BullBearMkt:Wetin man for do na? ![]() |
Locotrader:NGX Loco index |
megawealth01:Q3 is coming up. Hopefully we see the NAOC acquisition effect in full force. I believe this is the market expectation. Deal completed within the quarter, so it should be included. I'm not sure why a lot here were waiting so eagerly for the audited 2023 results. Were they expecting a marked improvement from the unaudited one? The good thing is that audited 2023, Q1 and Q2 have been released and they were .......erm! The market sent the price from N90 to N60. N55 to N60 seems to be a floor until the next FA event (the release of Q3 result). IF the NAOC acquisition reflects positively, I am (as do many here) inclined to think the SP will go on a run. Ah! I don't know o. |
yMcy56:It is impossicant. It won't happen. NNPC will never cede shares to Oando or settle debt owed (if any) to Oando in shares. Also, NNPC can not be classified as a related entity so NNPC is out of the equation in my opinion. The pool of likely related entities is quite a large one. It's too much work to list them here but if you comb through the annual report you will see the possible culprits there. Debt owed is about N215B. Disclaimer - I have been wrong many times before but this is my own understanding. Please note that the flag I'm raising here is white, not red nor green. Money can still be made and lost. It is the market afterall.
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KarlTom:Sorry to say, it is highly unlikely. NNPC a state-owned corporation will settle debts to a private company by alloting shares in the corporation owned by Nigerians? Oando and Tinubu would be looking for trouble be that. Disclaimer - Chai! For me, hard to reason am that way but anyway make we dey watch. |
Yemy3m:No be attack o. Just an opinion which has no bearing on how the market will react to the news. So here goes: What is huge? Make we know first. The information in that annoucement is slightly insufficient to make a sound investment judgement. There's not enough meat on the bone.Resolution 3 Summary: * Related entities owe Oando subsidiaries in the course of doing business together. * A special resolution is being proposed to have the debt owed transferred to Oando the parent company. * Debt due date will be brought forward and renegotiated (with or without modifications). * Further to above, Oando is proposing to have the debt settled by accepting shares in the debtor entities (i.e Debt for equity swap deal). * The debt for equity swap is intended to help reduce the overall Trade receivables (not payables o) at the group level. * Shares allocated from the debt to equity conversion is then distributed to existing shareholders of Oando on a pro rata-basis. Questions: 1. Who are the related entities owing Oando subsidiaries? 2. What is the status of the financial health of these entities? 3. Why are they unable to settle their debt as and when due? 4. Trade receivables are revenue owed to a company from the sale of goods and services. Is buying shares in these onigbese companies the best use of company resources? 5. Can Oando reveal the related entities and if possible provide a brief summary of their financials so shareholders can make informed decisions before voting on these resolutions? 6. Would it be better to instigate an asset sale by these entities and the proceeds used to settle Oando loans or Trade payables? 7. Do these related entities pay dividend? 8. If not, are they listed on the NASD or NGX to provide an exit platform for shareholders should they decide to leave? Or at least convert their own portion of the shares to cash. Don't give me something I can't monetise. 9. Oando has quite a number of subsidiaries and related entities. Which ones are we talking about here? ![]() 10. Bonus question - Is there a subsidiary or related entity Wale and Boyo are not shareholders of? Hmm, Wale why are you not paying up for for good and services rendered? Positive: 1. If the related entities are Asset rich but just suffering a temporary cash crunch. 2. Deal is done at favourable valuation for Oando shareholders i.e entity shares are not overpriced at conversion. 3. OODP (Wale and Boyo) will not be voting. Outcome lies solely in the hands of minority holders (same as the delisting in case anyone didn't know that). 4. Huge positive - converting trade receivables to shares in an asset rich company and transferring same to existing shareholders could be the company rewarding existing shareholders. Basically, the company is proposing to pay out a portion of its income to shareholders. A dividend of some sort. In a way, Question #4 could be a blessing even though Oando still needs to address its huge debt too. 5. Qualification date for this distribution is the date the resolution is passed. Note this one. 17/12. 6. The directors might be seeing light at the end of the tunnel, hence their decision to go this route. Otherwise, it shouldn't be the near-term course of action. Settle your own gbese first before thinking of rewarding shareholders (that is if it's a reward o. It might well be a curse especially if it could have been better spent for the overall good of the company and to reap the reward latter). Disclaimer - My 2 kobo. My post could be grossly misleading so please DYOR. Not a recommendation to buy or sell Oando. |
I wouldn't touch BUA Foods with a long pole at current price. Just not worth it in my opinion. In terms of Portfolio growth and income, it just doesn't cut the mustard. The chart tells the story - reeks of SP manipulation. Excessively high PE relative to sectoral peers (I didn't really do a comparism. Just off the top of my head ni o). Disclaimer - I do not have a crystal ball and i could be wrong. SP may well rerate from here if the forces responsible for the last rerate so desire. ![]() |
chimex38:I went back to correct my post again. I knew the per share data in the Q3 result was misleading but didn't remember how I arrived at the result. PAT - N1.524B OS - 2.949B EPS - N0.52 (Q3 didn't factor in the additional shares but the market is well aware I suppose). |
Heishere:Correction taken. Thank you. I think I'm getting things mixed up with another stock. OS has truly increased from 780M to 2.95B. So the additional shares have been alloted and may well be the cause of the over supply from a large holder. Current per share data is still not correct though. EPS is not 90k as per Q3 result but 0.52k. @Chimex et al, please take note of the correction. |
Health3: Omooloriredade:Been digging to see if I overlooked anything in my assessment. Now I'm inclined to think the market actually knows what's up ![]() Factors to consider: 1. There is a willing/motivated off-screen seller at anything below N4 maybe down to N3.60? Them get am plenty and are letting some go probably because of point #2. 2. The effect of a generous bonus. 2 for 3 for declared in November 2023 and with a January 2024 qualification date. One year after bonus declaration, additional shares are yet to be issued. Who does that? While the market appreciates bonuses, this one excludes 2024 buyers. What stops a beneficiary of the bonuses from doing a yard sale if they know they will still get 2 for every 3 they sell anyway? Points back to #1. 3. Current per share data and valuation doesn't include bonus shares which introduces some uncertainty. Will the additional shares be awarded and included in FY 24? If yes, then real eps is about 52k. Off-screen sellers are to be feared and respected in the market. There's no telling how much stock they intend to dispose off. One chairman has been selling Chams for months now. You get too excited or impatient and you drive up the price to N2.1x and he just supplies the market like....calm down with the gragra. It was interesting to watch yesterday but keen to see the Locotrader magic when the market opens later today. The Calvary may well have arrived to overwhelm this off-screen seller. I can see he is rallying the troops. I hail o.Disclaimer - All in my opinion which is not gospel so please dyor. Also, my assessment of trading activities in Chams could be wrong. |
Locotrader: ![]() You are one crazy fella. Laugh wan burst my belle. You're one unrepentant monkey hunter. In fact to follow you sef odikwa very risky. A caution to those that will end up jumping into your picks at the peak. I'm a secret admirer of your attitude to life particularly how you treat criticisms or attacks. They are like water off a duck's back. Your reactions (if any) are humorous. No bitterness or salty responses. No pretentious replies. A likeable personality you are. Keep it up. Disclaimer - Not a pass to continue MH. ![]() |
Raider76:https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/Tantalizers_Plc_-_New_Appointments.pdf No idea if there will be another market reaction to the news. However, the board appointment is a tell tale sign of what to expect from Tantalizers. Definitely not the same fast food joint synonymous with love/dating proposals. Google "blue economy" and see attached snip from the announcement.I expect the "power board" to rebrand. That Tantalizers name won't fly any longer. Change name kia kia. Disclaimer - It remains to be seen if them be audio board o so not a buy or sell recommendation.
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Sunrisepebble:Just to be clear, my post is not an attack and not entirely addressed to you. You may find my comment to be unrelated to your post:I wouldn't read too much into it. CBO capital has been selling down their holdings for a while and gave the reasons why. Most importantly, they are not selling to retail (as such) but to instos (that's how MBC securities came on board). That's the difference between flooding the market with sales leading to drop in SP. You would observe Ellah Lakes SP has been in an upward trajectory inspite of this announcement by CBO earlier in the year. Volume and price action tells a story. Also, Chuka Mordi is not selling down his stake per se. He is actually increasing his stake via Blackman & Co where he is a director along with his brother Emeka Mordi. DYOR. Additionally, there is no greater vote of confidence in a company than for a director to sacrifice a portion of his salary for shares in the company. It demonstrates passion, commitment and confidence in the prospects of the company. Like I mentioned in my previous post on Ellah Lakes, the company is on the right path Operationally and Strategically. Photo #1 - Audited report 2024. Photo #2 - Unaudited Q4 2024. Disclaimer - This is still not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. I could be sincerely wrong so anyone is welcome to fact-check my post. I have no issues with anyone that has something against Ellah Lakes either . No emotional attachments to companies I post about.
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SonofElElyonRet:Pretty sure the private placement is yet to be completed. |
Raider76:Pretty sure it's T+3 |
Agbalowomeri:Possibly! Keenly following this one. What is your target SP? N50? *yinmu* I wish I knew for sure what will happen in the next three weeks before their dividend qualification date. I like to convert the NGX price to the NASD price, then assess the buying or selling pressure back then to give an indication of what to expect now. N200/N250 was N4000/N5000 on the NASD, was there supply back then? Anyway, directors jumping in suggests there is value under N400 and could potentially set a floor for the SP. Except ACA decides to go against the norm. |
Sunrisepebble:Highly unlikely directors and their families would trade this kind of insider information. It's one of the market infractions that's clearly black and white. Insider's have a blackout period where trade is restricted. If approval was imminent AND KNOWN TO INSIDERS, I doubt directors and their families will be trading the stock. *Please take note of the bolded. My theory is that Aradel was oversold based on fear that a major holder was going to flood the market. However, ACA only sold over two days according to the link you posted. Over those two days, a total of 43m shares (including ACA's) exchanged hands. 4m exchanged hands the third day possibly marking the end of their sale. The sell down to N360 was just retailers selling out of fear which explains the characteristic relatively low volumes accompaning those susbequent trading days (some as low as 400k units). Retailers could also have been crystallizing their paper profits carried over from NASD. From day 1, I doubted the possibility of a major holder flooding the markets with 700m shares. It's just unheard of as far as I'm concerned. Usually, such high volume trade is carried out via crossed deals between a major seller and a willing buyer. Management simply took advantage of the FUD to increase their holdings and possibly encouraged their families and associates to not let the opportunity slip by. Trading pattern in subsequent weeks will confirm if management and their associates made the right call or not. Disclaimer - Personal opinion only. I could be wrong. |
Locotrader:E be like say your jazz don expire teh teh. Go check am. Na joke o ![]() Locotrader: |
Omooloriredade:Going back to one of my posts on Japaul (a potential MH stock just like Oando so please be guided). I'm not suggesting anyone should buy or sell o. Oando has quietly veered into Solid minerals mining (Lithium, Bitumen and Gold). They refer to it as "Mining & Infrastructure Development". This unit is led by Ayo Ajose-Adeogun. Currently carrying out community consultations in Kwara in the lead up to Lithium exploration in the state. They were silent on the results of their 2023 drill campaign in Ogun state. How dare you withold such detail from shareholders, Oando? 2022 - N0.6B spent on exploration related activities. 2023 - N3B spent on exploration related activities. 2024 - N1.6B spent on exploration related activies as at Q2. On track to surpass 2023 expenditure. It is good to see the Majors dabble into solid mineral mining and increasing budgetary spending YOY. It augurs well for an underdeveloped industry largely dominated by artisal miners. You need to spend big money to really gain traction in this industry. Like I mentioned in an earlier post, luck from mother nature is not to be underestimated. This is just a "Watch-this-space" kinda post and in no way suggesting anyone should buy or sell Oando / Japual. By the way, speaking of Oando. Y'all should check out their revamped website. Could the change be real? DYOR o. They are also venturing into Solar, Wind, Waste to energy, Bio fuel ati bebelo ![]() They also won below award on Tuesday at the Africa Energy Week. https://www.oandoplc.com/media-releases/oando-wins-deal-of-the-year-award-at-africa-energy-week-2024 |
Alright, just realised there's been some off-market trading in other Insurance stocks this month. Sovereign Trust, NEM and Consolidated Hallmark. Disclaimer - Not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Just an FYI.
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Locotrader:Not really NSEMPA wonder. Make una dey watch what the money bags are doing. Cardinal stone paid a premium of N2 per share for it. the more you look, the less you see. They came like a thief in the night. No one saw them. At least, I didn't see the volume pass through on iTrade *** sorry "off market" trade they said, so obviously it won't show. *Actually, it could well be that CardinalStone carried out that transaction on behalf of one of her clients* NSEMPA member? Disclaimer - Not a BUY or SELL recommendation. Just watching proceedings from my balcony.
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https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/252_Notification_of_Dealing_-_Temitayo_Ogunbanjo.pdf Two of Aradel's top management purchased shares on the floor with one of them being significant. Temitayo (GM Refinery) acquired #570,352 units at N372 per share on Tuesday for a consideration of N212M. Disclaimer - Not suggesting anything. Just FYI. |
debeey87:Construction is impacted by wet weather. Managers or companies try to line up most projects for the drier seasons, if possible. Where progress has been impacted by weather events, it's normal to see them playing catch up the following drier months. So expect to see a much better Q4 in my opinion. Obviously, I have assumed that they had weather disruptions on their projects. Disclaimer- Just an opinion. No sentiment or position held. |
There's a school fee paid in the insurance sector. Some have probably never paid this before. When a company declares a good result one quarter/year, don't assume there will be a repeat in subsequent quarters/years. You might say it's normal but wait, it's actually more pronounced in this sector. Veritas 9mths vs 6mths results is a clear example of this. They can get hit by claims that wipe off previous gains. Some insurance companies are just perennial under-performers in this regard. Not saying Veritas will or won't break out of the rat race. My point is to be cautious with their results and not make unrealistic projections based on one report. Personally, I'd only take short term positions. A few companies like Custodian, Nem and Mansard have found a way around it with diverse and well structured insurance products, sound investment portfolios and business diversification. There's a perennial under-performer that should actually be the leading insurance company in Nigeria but has failed to deliver good returns to shareholders over the years yet it controls a large market share. They are restructuring now and hopefully a new dispensation is dawning. This phenomenon is not the same as the complaint from some regarding GT and JB results. Personally, I don't see any issue with those results. Not all quarters are the same and both companies are on track to surpass previous year's earnings. You can't simply multiply Q1 by 4 to derive earnings for some companies. JB should not be expected to have equal earnings per quarter. Historical earnings pattern should be considered? Disclaimer - This should not be considered as investment advice as I'm not qualified to give one. |
Let's leave it here.

