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Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 7:15am On Jan 08, 2025

Makanjuola89:
100,000 is the minimum

Righto!!! I wasn't sure of the minimum quantity required. Once upon a time some were 50,000 and others 10,000.

I stand corrected. wink

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 6:46am On Jan 08, 2025*

bastardson:
Does it make sense investing in SEPLAT presently?

The stock price feels super high already.

It depends on your investment goal. What kind of stock market player are you?

In my opinion, Seplat (the company) is one of the best managed companies on the NGX. They seem to have a culture of corporate excellence.

Sound management - Yes
Consistent positive financial performance - Yes
Consistent dividend income - Yes
Growth - Yes

What then is my answer to your question, YES if you are an INVESTOR with a bias for dividend income and gradual growth.

NO, if you are like me who is only after capital growth on the NGX in the short term.

Why? In my opinion, Seplat (the stock) is not favoured by the NGX Price movement framework. A minimum of 100,000 units in a single trade is required to move the price. 100,000 x N5,000 = N500,000,000. How many times do we see this kind of trade? I am more likely to multibag on other stocks than in Seplat (recall my investor profile?)

Seplat no vex. My loyalty is to my portfolio.

Disclaimer - All in my opinion.

#Edited

7 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 12:08am On Jan 08, 2025

Meerahbel:
It's now known as 11plc and they are in NASD.

Different companies.

Seplat just acquired the upstream business (of Exxon Mobil). You are referring to former Mobil Plc (downstream aka petrol stations) now known as 11 Plc.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 11:33am On Jan 07, 2025

emmanuelewumi:
So the current owner is not ready to pocket the purported $300,000 profit in 10 years.

If possible get loans to buy more properties.

By the way this is a stock market thread, let us discuss the stock market and real estate marketing should be taken to real estate threads

Ok, stocks only. cheesy

So the people selling you Nahco, Presco, Okomu and all those your juicy stocks don't want to enjoy dividends and price appreciation like yourself? Na joke o

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 11:28am On Jan 07, 2025

courage89:
Why is that?

Teragro is still audio for now and has been for years. They tried out some businesses (e.g juice concentrate making) in the past that didn't work out.

Transcorp oil bloc (OPL 281) is still in the exploration phase. A capital intensive and risky phase. Nothing is guaranteed. It can take years to go from exploration to production, if you're lucky otherwise na to plug and abandon if your find is not commercial. The subsidiary is owing Transcorp sef. By the way, that oil bloc is more than 10yrs old and counting.

All in my opinion, please do your own research. I could be wrong o cheesy

4 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 11:21am On Jan 07, 2025

emmanuelewumi:
Even at that a 20% down payment at $50,000 is advisable. Residential real estate is not a passive income as such.

Better to buy REIT that will pay dollars to the investor.

I think the guys doing this seminar should target people earning dollars.

My opinion though

Pretty sure the investment thesis is not "passive income".

The idea is to purchase a property that is positively geared (the rental income exceeds the costs of owning the property).

That way you don't have to spend a kobo to meet your mortgage obligations (na die be that if your earning power is in Naira) if not positively geared and especially with an unstable Naira.

Their sales pitch will include providing the growth profile of area in terms of rental growth and house prices over a period along with the projection for the next few years.

To make the maths easy:
So say, you buy the property now with a 20% down payment ($50,000). Mortgage amount is $200,000.

If the property is projected to double in the next 6 to 10 yrs. You will be pocketing at least $300,000 if you sold then. Assumption is that the rental yield (and growth) will support all associated costs.

3 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 10:40am On Jan 07, 2025

courage89:
Team Transcorp all the way. We will start seeing real value In Transcorp when Tony decides to start unbundling all the Transcorp mini assets, and list them on the stock exchange in a similar fashion as Transpower, Transhotel. Or when all these assets start contributing significant cash flow to Transcorp bottom line.

In addition to the listing valuation power of Transpower, Transhotel… other notable invisible Transcorp assets includes; Afam Power (~2000 mw power plant), Teragro assets (Agriculture), Transcorp Oil blocs (Energy) and others. These invisible assets when unbundled, will be worth Trillions in valuations.

For now, please scratch Teragro and Oil blocs from that list. cheesy

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 8:02am On Jan 02, 2025

BullBearMkt:
Nice insights. Since 2022, Qatar and US are now the major LNG suppliers to Europe after Assad (Syria) and Russia initially frustrated Qatar-Europe pipeline project to transport natural gas from Qatar’s largest gas field - North Field. Now that Bashar is completely out of the picture, Europe will be delighted to resume the project…

Wondering what’s the position of Nigeria’s train 7 project. Its been long I read about it

I believe Train 7 is still under construction and may remain so for the next two years. I don't see it being commissioned earlier than H2 2027 or 2028 in my opinion. You know how projects drag on forever sometimes huh

2 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 7:57am On Jan 02, 2025

Raider76:
On the bolded, how does one know if one is qualified?

No one knows. Initially, 17/12/24 was proposed but it has since changed following the carried amendments at the AGM. New qualification date is yet to be announced.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 4:51am On Jan 02, 2025*

Heishere:
Anyway does anyone know if there is any partnership between NLNG and Aradel or Seplat regarding gas supply to Europe? How does NLNG source their gas? Do they explore or they buy from companies like Aradel or Seplat?

My opinion only:
I think I see where you going with that question. cheesy

However, the US and Qatar will be filling the void created by the exit of Russia following the expiration of gas transit agreements with Ukraine. US and Qatar will be supplying LNG to Europe along with existing suppliers including our very own NLNG.

To answer your question, Oando via the NAOC JV is an existing supplier of gas feedstock to NLNG. Aradel will be joining via the acquisition of SPDC JV assets by the Rennaisance consortium.

Unrelated to your question, imo I expect Oando to deliver a minimum 200% (x3) appreciation to a current holding or position (not SP) provided you qualify for the share distribution and barring any unforeseen significant disruption to field operations.

Have I made wrong calls in the past? You bet!

3 Likes

Travel › Re: Living In Australia/life As An Australian Immigrant by Omooloriredade: 2:51am On Jan 02, 2025

The hustle to secure prime real estate (best spot) for viewing the NY fireworks starts more than 24hrs before the event.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 3:46pm On Dec 30, 2024

HesInMe:
Hear me out. You shouldn't invest in a company/industry that only makes money by doing what you can do yourself as an investor. It is a fundamental rule of capital allocation. I can invest in the same equities and fixed income instruments that make up those "interest and investment income" you are referring to. The insurance companies do not have a unique advantage over me in that respect. Why pay salaries, bonuses, and office rent for people to do what you can relatively easily do for yourself?

I dey feel you. But who made this rule sef? If I may ask, do you invest in banks? UCAP? Afriprud et al? How do they make their money? They also invest in equities and fixed income instruments? Or do they not?

Also, a well structured insurance company can have access to investments you as an individual (and maybe not a company) do not have access to. It goes beyond listed equities and fixed income instruments. Consider there are barriers to entry for some investments, except you're Dangote, you won't get a seat at the table.

3 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 1:47pm On Dec 30, 2024

Jaiz bank is trading at N3 but raised capital via private placement at N1 only a few weeks ago. Why didn't they just do a RI to existing shareholders? Haba, that discount to the private investors was excessive. Surely over 50% since Jaiz has not traded below N2 since June. Crunch your numbers properly come result time o.

1 Like 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 12:42pm On Dec 30, 2024

There's been an appreciable influx of FDI into agriculture particularly livestock farming and meat processing. Good for the industry and Nigerians at large.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/brazilian-meatpacker-jbs-agrees-invest-25-bln-nigeria-build-six-factories-2024-11-22/

https://punchng.com/chi-farms-plans-2-5bn-livestock-investment/

https://punchng.com/saudis-1-2bn-investment-to-create-more-jobs-for-nigerians-fg/

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 11:14am On Dec 30, 2024

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42779_JOHN_HOLT_PLC.-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_DECEMBER_2024.pdf

This Johnholt result looks cooked. Which one is "parent company support"? huh

Anyway, make una dey chop the money dey go. wink

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 10:07am On Dec 30, 2024

HesInMe:
If only that were the problem. The main challenge in insurance in Naija is the topline: Industry premiums are not growing fast enough compared to the market potential. People are just not insuring insurable risks. It's hard enough to compel car insurance, talk less of coverage for homes, businesses, life, and health.

So you will have all these companies with all these new shares demanding a return on investment, but the investment opportunities are just not there yet. Which rational investor would buy knowing that?

I agree insurance penetration and limited bouquet of insurance products continue to be a challenge for the insurance sector. However, I disagree the main challenge is topline growth. Don't get me wrong....it is still a challenge but not the major challenge. If you grow your topline because more Nigerians take up car insurance, do you think it will improve your bottomline? No, (imo), that business is not a profitable one in Naija. I assume everyone should know the reason why.

The key to an insurance company's success (particularly in Naija) is the ability to evolve and diversify. You would still need more capital to do this. There is a blueprint to follow. Custodian, Mansard are already leading the way. A few others are now following by establishing a "holdco" structure and diversifying. You don't have to focus on traditional insurance alone. NAICOM regulation stipulates the portion of your capital that must be reserved for "reinsurance", "reserved in a deposit money bank" and available for investment. A well capitalised insurance company can veer into virtually any profitable businesses (including banking, pension fund administration/custodianship, venture capitalism, fund management etc) provided they follow the regulation including relevant organisational structure.

There are examples of insurance businesses in Nigeria that one can understudy to understand what to do and not do inorder to succeed.

Aiico - Grew premiums massively over the years but struggled with bottomline. That company should not be where it is today.
Custodian - Evolved and diversified and is now the poster child of a well run company for the sector. Aiico was not Custodian's mate once upon a time.
IEI - Started off with a bang. Entered the O&G insurance sector to chop money but they didn't know what hit them there. Fighting for survival now.

Have a look at the results of insurance companies. You will find they make money (margins) from interest and investment income not their core business of insurance. Difficult operating enviroment as many have found. There's still opportunity for growth in traditional insurance space but that is a topic for another day.

#Evolve and diversify so you can thrive!!!

Disclaimer - Just an opinion. I could be wrong.

4 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 6:23am On Dec 29, 2024

BullBearMkt:
MY 2024 INTERESTING STORY!
This my true life story is to encourage those who still see stock investment as nothing but gambling.

Compliment of the Season, Wishing Everyone Very Best of 2025!

Well done!!! You are making a positive impact in your friend's life. Just looking over the past year myself and I can say a life has been significantly impacted positively.

Omooloriredade:
My sister has a portfolio with FBNH as the major stock. She bought it during the N30 public offer some years back. Imagine, FBN offered shares at N30 years back. Understandably, she has an emotional attachment to it because of that. I decided to help her. The only rule is, I can't touch that FBN. The portfolio is looking so much different now (multiples of where we started from) despite the fact many withdrawals have been made. Life changing for her. FBN is not even up to 10% of the portfolio any longer.

I had a very low bar set in 2023 when I decided to assist my sister with investing in the stock market. She always needed help with "BIG" ticket expenditure like renewing IDs or licences, repairing or changing her phone, replacing her glasses, shopping etc so I would often have to step in to assist. I have always wondered if there was "a solution for her case".......japa not being an option. Her total asset was roughly N2.5M so I thought I'd invest it in the NGX with the hope that she could make 20-50% yearly to fund such "BIG" ticket expenses. I had stopped following the NGX for some years so my expectations were pretty low. I had a lot of catching up to do. NSEMPA, Meritrade research, Cardinal Stone research, NGX website, Twitter, LinkedIn et al brought me up to speed.

Fast forward to today and her portfolio is almost x10 of the original seed capital even though roughly N3.5M has been withdrawn between 2023 and 2024. Life changing!!! For context, she is a bloody teacher expecting her reward in heaven. She doesn't even earn up to a pathetic N1.2M a year......SMH angry

. I don't know what she receives exactly - notifications, portfolio summary, trade alerts, she sends me "ku ise" meaning "well done" out of the blues. Now, the bar has been raised tongue

. Her portfolio will fund real big ticket expenses as we march towards 2026 by God's grace. May God send helpers our way that won't rest until they see us prosper. cheesy

One of my 2024 highlights for sure.

26 Likes 2 Shares

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 10:59am On Dec 27, 2024

ndept:
The truth is that it will take ellah at least 3 years from now to achieve this feat. Palm plantation don't grow overnight, it takes at least 4 years for an average oil palm to reach fruition. The crucial question to ask is, when did ellah planted their oil palm plantation? This will help in determining when to buy the stock for capital appreciation.

https://businessday.ng/companies/article/ellah-lakes-eyes-palm-oil-production-in-2025/

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 1:40pm On Dec 20, 2024

Sunrisepebble:
RENCAP is a financial institution. It’s different

Oh! My eyes just lit up when I saw Renaissance. I didn't read what followed after....haha.

Yes, you are correct.
@street no vex o. Incorrect information

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 1:32pm On Dec 20, 2024*

Streetinvestor2:
What you shared is not about aredel.i no understand again

Unrelated company in attachment, sorry.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 1:21pm On Dec 20, 2024*

Aradel will surprise many on the NGX. cheesy

Unrelated company in attachment, sorry.

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 11:33pm On Dec 17, 2024

Streetinvestor2:
I don't have time for your noise.I believe I went into oando before you did and made the call then.iThe evidence is thr on this thread. I didn't need your validation for it.I made it clear it was based on wale relationship to the president then and called it betnaija stock. I am calling it out today based on FA which never existed. You maybe interested in likes here I don't have single value for likes in any of my post

Haba! E no reach like that. Just seeing the humour in the whole thing. Got nothing against you.

Na Pa Emma remain now. Na joke o.

7 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 10:58pm On Dec 17, 2024

KarlTom:
In recent times, most of the news from/about OandO are not easily understood...

I put it to you that most of the shareholders that voted didn't really understand what they were voting on. I questioned why shareholders were not given enough details about the special resolutions before the AGM.

Interestingly, when Osakwe was going to provide some details about the proposed share distribution, you could hear some people shouting "it's okay", "let's proceed". What that guy read out was invaluable for us to know what the detail entails. Yet some wanted to shut him down.

Anyway, make I let the sleeping dog lie. Let's accept the offer and move on. We will still make money. Wale is the real winner though. He shafted Oando big time. He would throw a party after that AGM to celebrate the outcome.

3 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 10:41pm On Dec 17, 2024*

Agbalowomeri:
E reach Oando turn, bonus becomes calculus

If the company has indeed determined the ratio will be 1 for 2 as reported by some here, then that would lead to the cancellation of some shares.

1 for 2 is mathematically not possible unless they intend to cancel the leftover shares. Means nothing in the grand scheme of things though ( for example it can be considered a share buy back).

We are talking of 202,632,022 not being distributed if a 1 for 2 ratio is used.

Exact ratio is 0.5248 to 1 or 5.2 to 10 (or something like that).

No vex o. Please jump and pass if my exercise is not your thing. Playing with numbers is a pastime or hobby for me. tongue

3 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 10:35pm On Dec 17, 2024

Oando should absolutely make a move for 100% of Okpai IPP 1 & 2 and list the company on the NGX. Now, that will be better value for shareholders.

To the matter at hand, proposed share distribution will deliver an instant minimum 50% profit to shareholders if the SP stays the same. If the SP doubles, you make 200%.

5 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 10:26pm On Dec 17, 2024

Chai!!! Street turn Oando believer?

Impossible is nothing........haha. We suppose make t-shirts of "Oando don cast 2024". cheesy

7 Likes

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 5:25pm On Dec 17, 2024

Omooloriredade:
Notwithstanding, Oando might not be trading at these levels for long. Here is why, balance sheet is being cleaned up and may flip to positive in subsequent quarters with profitability increasing too. Market will likely begin to apply Aradel/Seplat PE to determine SP. A quick maths indicates a triple digit figure of c. N143 based on Aradel current PE and Oando's reported EPS.

If the share distribution is done this FY, the flipping is happening this Q4. This is coupled with the fact that NAOC's asset will contribute to the bottom line in Q4. The write-back alone wipes off the negative equity. Abracadabra!!!

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 4:42pm On Dec 17, 2024

Wale's proposal is almost a debt pardon but let bygones be bygones. Na so all these directors for banks too dey do. Debt was impaired but it's coming back in the form of a share distribution. Hooray!!! Wetin us simple retailers sabi? cheesy

Make I no too talk sha cheesy

So them sha say make we #BetOnOando (caveat - Na Wale talk am o).

Let's see what the market thinks in the coming days. Hopefully, market no go reason am too much like me.

1 Like 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 1:27pm On Dec 17, 2024

What was the amendment to the share distribution that was adopted? Did shareholders opt for cash distribution instead?

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 9:53am On Dec 17, 2024*

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42714_OANDO_PLC-OANDO_PLC__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_DECEMBER_2024.pdf

22kboepd to 30kboepd post acquisition and after the reporting period. Not good enough if that includes NAOC assets. I expect this value to be much higher this Q4. At least double according to OER's MD's tweet below. So this 9M results was affected by interruptions to operations but they have had 100 days of uninterrupted operations, doubled production etc which should reflect in Q4 results. We are watching.

Again a lot needs to be done with keeping costs and expenses down and get someone who can fix that trading business. All IMO.

Abeg link to AGM please. Previous link shared not working.

1 Like

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 1:21am On Dec 17, 2024*

Bagwa:
Receivable over 3 Trillion Oando

You can't look at Receivables in isolation. Payables nko?

Did I miss the context? If so, apologies in advance.

For me, I'd wait for an official press release on the results before I comment. The operation numbers that would drive the turnaround will be in the press statement. These are the numbers I'd like to see to understand the Q3 and where Oando is headed. Also, make we hear wetin Wale wan talk for AGM. Hopefully, the shares to be distributed are known by the end of the meeting.

The segment reporting provides the best perspective to understanding Oando's business. The E&P remains the cash cow. Trading & Corporate bleeding the company as usual. Oando needs to put its house in order and rein in expenses.

Notwithstanding, Oando might not be trading at these levels for long. Here is why, balance sheet is being cleaned up and may flip to positive in subsequent quarters with profitability increasing too. Market will likely begin to apply Aradel/Seplat PE to determine SP. A quick maths indicates a triple digit figure of c. N143 based on Aradel current PE and Oando's reported EPS.

Hey! I didn't say Oando's result is comparable to Aradel's but that market will bet on a sustained recovery to push valuation to this level.

If you haven't already realised, the market loves Recovery/Turnaround/Underdog stories.

Ah! And I said I'd wait o. See epistle. Sigh!!! cheesy

Disclaimer - Just an opinion. OYO.

8 Likes 1 Share

Investment › Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Omooloriredade: 1:09pm On Dec 14, 2024

BabsO2:
This for all of us abegi. Nice interview with Wale. Make him just grow Oando to beat Seplat for us

I struggle to see how Wale will fail to turn Oando at this juncture. He has the wind at his back.

Stumbled on a report that an extra 300MW is now ready to hit the grid from Okpai phase 2 leaving just 150MW till Q3 2025.

A back of the envelope calculation of Power companies using only one metric - market capitalisation.

Let's look at the Market valuation of listed Power companies on the NGX.

Geregu > OS x SP = 2,500,000,000 x 1150 = N2,875,000,000,000
Geregu Name plate capacity = 435MW
Otedola factor and free float influenced valuation so grossly unreliable.

Transcorp Power > 7,500,000,000 x N360 = N2,700,000,000,000
Transcorp Power Name plate capacity = 2000MW (approx)
1MW = N2,700,000,000,000 / 2000MW = N1,350,000,000

Asssuming we can rely on this figure as an industry metric;
Okpai IPP (1 & 2) Name plate capacity = 1000MW (approx)
Okpai IPP (1 & 2) market valuation = N1,350,000,000 per MW x 1,000 MW = N1,350,000,000,000
Oando's share = 40% of N1,350,000,000,000 = N540,000,000,000

Since the FG has been keen to privatise power plants lately, I say Wale should whisper in Uncle's ear that he wants to buy the FG's share in the JV. Take bank loan and buy up the remaining 60% (FG will sell cheap cheesy

) , transfer to existing shareholders and list Oando power (Okpai IPP 1& 2) on the NGX.

OR

After buying up FG's stake, list on the NGX, either do a share sale to the public or a PP to strategic investors (instant profit) and pay down some of the outstanding bank loans.

Oando's situation is unique in the sense that, not only does it Oando a stake in the IPP, it also supplies gas to the IPP as part of the JV.

Disclaimer - Na just speculation levels o. Options suppose dey sha. A lot of irons in the fire. Wale say make we #BetOnOando

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