₦airaland Forum

Is Wapic (Coronation insurance) not delisting again? Any idea why 402M shares exchanged hands yesterday?

SonofElElyonRet:
Not holding brief for Agbaje but this seems personal going by some of his recommendations

...DSS should deal with Agbaje

Regulators should close down the bank

Haba!

ositadima1:
Did you read the ThisDayLive publication whose link was posted by Mcy56? Or do you just want to engage me for no reason? I made it clear that my inputs were from that source. I also made it very clear that I didn't use peak values but 75% of peak values, as shown in my spreadsheet. If the 100,000 barrels per day figure is wrong, take it up with the source. Here's an excerpt from the publication:
"Today, Oando is the largest supplier of gas to the Eleme Petrochemicals. Aside from the issue of insecurity hobbling its activities, Oando's peak production was 100,000 barrels a day last year and 1.5 billion scf in the case of gas."

Hence the reason as stated "should have been reported as".

I see you don't like to be corrected.

Tpharell:
Do you reckon the PIA’s prescription of Nigeria’s rights of up to 60% interest in a JV was violated by Mobil Nigeria’s concession of relinquishing additional 10% to the NNPCL’s 60% stake in the onshore/shallow water assets JV in the out of court settlement to facilitate their divestment to Seplat?

Because as it stands today Nigeria’s stake in that JV is 70%, contrary to the PIA’s spirit and letter, and contrary to common sense as well, as there is almost a consensus that NNPC needs to cutdown (not increase) its JV interests.

I tried to research if there was any legal basis for that but found nothing to support it. Some articles seems to suggest the NNPC sort a waiver in case they wanted a third party participant or investor in the future. Why would the NNPC seek such waiver? Could they be saving the 10% for a third party (if true).

Anyway, I couldn't tell ya what happened there so let me just stop with the speculation.

Streetinvestor2:
On a serious note @ osita.That profit you posted from that revenue can not be right. Which kind baboon dey work monkey dey chop financial statement.And the 15 is not even right for cost.For naija it 45 and above.

Production costs per BOE based on AUDITED 2023 annual reports:

Seplat - $10.4/BOE
Aradel - $21.0/bbls (Reported in bbls so refinery costs included. About 33% of crude produced feeds their refinery)
Oando - TBC

This is the fact of actual production cost. However, there are other taxes and royalties that apply in Oil & Gas production which is technically not included in determining cost of production. It is an industry standard the world over. It is technically incorrect to sum up all taxes, royalties to determine the cost of production.

As for Nigeria's interest in JV especially share of production, the country has the RIGHT for up to 60% as per the PIA.

https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2021/12/nigeria-overhauls-its-oil-and-gas-laws-with-petroleum-industry-act

ositadima1:
Based on the link posted by Mcy56 (she leaked the forward documents not me incase you are prosecutor ), does this make sense? Am I missing something?

Good attempt but unfortunately GROSSLY inaccurate.

* Peak Oil production was not 100,000bbls/day. Should have been reported as 100,000BOE/day. Also, Peak production can't be used for forecasting.
* Based on point above re BOE, you can't multiply this figure by $76 (the price of oil).
* Gas production figure is wrong. Don't know where that came from. Oando produced c. 31,912,680 MMBtu of gas in 2023.
* Average realised price of gas in 2023 was about $2 per MMBtu. Note - Futures contracts are usually used hedge commodity price risk.
* Your annual revenue was therefore grossly overstated which throws off the rest of your calculations.

However, I commend you for this intellectual exercise.

Things to note:

Gas:
1000Scf = 1Mcf
1000Mcf = 1MMcf
1000MMcf = 1Bcf
1000Bcf = 1Tcf

BOE (Barrel of OIL Equivalent)
1BOE = 6000Scf or 6Mcf or 5.8MMBtu (approx 6MMBtu)

Oil
1BOE = 1bbl (basically oil quantity needs no conversion. Unlike gas and NGLs, what you get is what it is)

So when an Upstream company reports production numbers, they usually refer to BOE to capture Oil, Natural Gas and Natural Gas liquids. Also, you would often see Oil companies qualify an oil well or OML by the proportion of Oil it produces e.g OML ABC producing 70% Oil (that is the % of oil in the BOE).

iHaveMadeiT2:
This was what some people kept saying about Oando and discouraged others from benefiting from the massive returns in Oando within a very short period.

You mean some people saying Oando should focus on their upstream business and not dabble into a risky refinery business led to some others being discouraged and missing the rally? The same upstream business that was the catalyst for the rally?

Zagee:
You might want to see Dangote's last meetings with one of the Caribbean States. Can't remember which in particular. Peep into his insight.

https://nairametrics.com/2024/06/13/dangote-refinery-to-set-up-terminal-in-the-caribbean-for-export-of-petroleum-products/

This one?

In my opinion, still not the best move for Oando. Consolidate your Upstream business and clean up your books first. There is money to be made in Upstream liquids and Gas.

Oando is late to the party. Dangote has some positives - brand new refinery, latest technology, economies of scale, largest in the region. They will just be able to squeeze out their desired margin.

Sometimes it is better to buy a brand new car than buy a very old Mercedes benz. The benz might send you to an early grave.

Read this one too:
https://www.guardian.co.tt/business/petrotrin-refinery-attracts-nine-new-proposals-6.2.2051474.3eb2e1115c

Disclaimer - Please it's just my opinion. May be it's because I just find the refinery business too risky. Operations management must be best in class to make money.

essentialone:
What is driving up the price of Deap Capital Management & Trust Plc? Already gained 110%.

Safe to still buy it now?

In my opinion, it's just TA. The company is dead and decomposing. Best to delist and go into liquidation. There's no point recapitalising the company. That will be throwing good money after bad. Best for the owners to just float another company or start afresh if they have not been sanctioned by the regulators already.

Bagwa:
O

https://trinidadexpress.com/newsextra/3-shortlisted-to-purchase-refinery/article_f82dd1ee-8025-11ef-abf1-af1d54a7aecd.html

Makes no business sense to me. Just focus on upstream and if you must dabble into refining why Trinidad & Tobago? Very small market in that axis. You would have to spend top dollar to turnaround the fortunes of the refinery. In fact, further loses are guaranteed in the first few years following the takeover. Looks like a misadventure about to happen.

Disclaimer - As per usual commentary. All based on personal opinion. Post could be wrong and misleading so please DYOR.

dapix:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42218_UNITED_BANK_FOR_AFRICA_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_SEPTEMBER_2024.pdf

N2 interim dividend

Wow! ShocKED!

Ginalex:
Please I'm trying to "test" Morgan's trading platform but it's not submitting my bid. Am I doing something wrong?

Change the "Fill or Kill" to "Day" under Time in Force.

If you don't, even if you are able to submit but the stock is not available immediately at that price in your requested quantity, the order will expire.

SonofElElyonRet:
My friend, its more convenient for me to use my broker. We discuss real time and she gives on the spot advice. Also I've known her for decades so I'm comfortable with her. If there's any quick opportunity she uses their funds and i reimburse same day or latest the next

Ok. Understood. Cheers.

SonofElElyonRet:
I am more interested in the insurance company, not the bank. Bro, give us the expo

Question - Is it correct to assume your broker trades on your behalf? Lost count of the number of times you have said " I told my broker to buy......"

Is there a reason why you don't do the buying and selling yourself? At least through a trading platform?

Harmless question o. Just wondering.

GeeKudi:
Without any prophecy, from available public info, you can predict what would be in the anticipated results

*inresased revenue (raising crude production from 5000bpd to 50,000bpd no be moimoi)

*no dividend yet (would be over ambitious to expect dividend earlier than late next year)

*Crude production was not 5kbpd it was 20kbpd but if they can achieve 50kbpd it would still be outstanding.

*Late 2025 is too early for dividend payment. Even though they might be back to profitability, sound management requires that they clear their negative retained earnings before they commence dividend payments. I reckon it will take a bit longer to build up reserves and significantly reduce debts before management can consider dividend repayments. Ideally, that should be their priority. I strongly believe the market will prioritise a continuous recovery in finances over dividend payments in the short term.

All in my opinion. I could be wrong.

Streetinvestor2:
See job men.Even bulaba wife did better with her vegetables farm story.None of them reason the matter it would have been better taking the picture in the palm plantation. This way we for see how big the palm trees don reach and make good judgement.

Very soon it would be Elleh lake who are you as testimony

Who told you the purpose of their visit was to convince you to invest in the company? For all we know, there could have been an NDA (no photos permitted in the farm)?

Touch base with any of "hustlers" and see if you can glean any useful info from them? Or you reckon they are clueless and ignorant? Possibly under Chuka's spell so can't make sound judgement?

Baba how far? Wetin una see for the farm sef? Na audio? Chuka sabi wetin him dey do abi him wan scam us?

To cast aspersions on persons you don't know without doing any tangible research is not the best in my opinion. Like I explained in my post about puzzles, you may prefer all the pieces of the puzzles are arranged before you make your investment decisions which is equally smart and safe but respect people who without seeing yet believe 😄

I hope you don't perceive my post as an attack or defence. I be referee or spectator sef....haha. Please check in with that your chairman to see if he knows anything about Ellah Lakes. I know his opinion is gold to you. For me wey I no get chairman anywhere, my research is gold. It's all I got. 😉

Ellah Lakes is making the right moves both strategically and operationally. Do your own research.

Disclaimer - Not suggesting anyone should buy or sell Ellah Lakes just providing usual commentary. 😉

Omooloriredade:
Na wa for you o.

Until the off-screen seller is done, Ellah is not going anywhere (in the short term) in my opinion.

That said, strong positive news or deep pockets can absorb the shares the seller wants to offload. Until then, the seller is running the show.

You could take the above to the bank until the meeting at the farm happened. Apparently, CBO still has more shares to offload but rather than let it drag on for too long (tight band above N3), arranged an investor presentation with stockbrokers only. How is that even allowed? Next trading day after meeting, SP starts to climb with huge volumes. It's not dumping. Ellah Lakes is attempting to meet free float requirement by distributing its shares. CBO and Brokers will determine how the stock trades until there is significant news. They believe it's cheap due to its higher Net Asset Value per share and the what has been achieved so far on the "audio" farm. Na them sabi.

Roll call of attendees below. Did anyone's face look familiar? Would someone be kind enough to find out the Private placement price please?

I know Ellah Lakes directors opted for a portion of their salary in shares. Bullish!!! Quite a positive except that Mr Chuka is on a very FAT salary for a company with little to no revenue. Anyway, the future appears bright so can be overlooked.

Disclaimer - Not a buy or sell recommendation.

mikeapollo:
I can only place some level of certainty on the Audited 2023 results.
As for Q1 & Q2 2024 results, I can only wait and see if Oando would truly deliver and keep to their promise. Unfortunately, any attempt to delay the H1 2024 results will have negative effect on the share price.

There won't be a dramatic difference (no improvement for sure) between what was reported in Unaudited and Audited 2023 results. So nothing to look forward to in that result.
I expect Oando to release the Q1 and Q2 results shortly after the Audited results. These results will be used to guage the outlook for the rest of the year including the current acquisition. In my opinion, Oando will not release the Audited in isolation as there will not be much to celebrate in it. Q1 and Q2 are unaudited and would have been prepared as soon as the board approved the Audited results late August or early September according to their guidance.

Sunrisepebble:
Their target price is taking into account the current os. But what they want to do is essentially a reverse stock split

Except the proposed consolidation ratio has changed, I don't see Cardinal Stone achieving that feat. Proposed ratio is currently 1 to 4. Pre-consolidation, at N40/share that would be a MCAP of N1.624T with a H2 EPS of N1.74? So results won't be the driver.

Very unlikely in my opinion except there is significant news incoming that can drive the price. If there was, they wouldn't need to task Cardinal stone with that?

Sunrisepebble:
They want to do a share reconstruction. Cardinal stone has a target of almost #40 on the stock.

Before or after reconstruction?

Yemy3m:
oando faithfulls .get ready.

Raider76:
For what?

mikeapollo:
If you have any information that could help folks, kindly release it so we can place higher premium on it.
This ''Oando faithfulls get ready'' get as e be

Did you not know the Audited 2023 results, Q1 and Q2 2024 are due on or b4 Monday 30/09? At least that was the guidance Oando management gave the market.

#Moment of truth

Yemy3m:
next week.
uba|oando|eterna are hot
Buy more Do. Not. Sell until news is out.

a bamk want to buy majority stake in a insurance. be alert

Is the bank Fidelity?

@Bagwa @Sunrisepebble @yemy3m or anyone that has access to this info.

If I'm not mistaken, Ellah Lakes is currently raising capital via a private placement. Can anyone of you please help confirm the SP?

The RI late 2023 was at N2.90. I'd like to know if the PP is at a premium. Thanks.

Streetinvestor2:
Abeg make owner leave that matter. All this rich men and so called celebrities do it on social media physical and we celebrate it with them.How many have been kidnapp. When I post mine.Make sure you come welll prepared for the kidnapp. Na only government I fit fear on that bases .The government can decide to send his people after the money. Apart from that nothing they happen

Apologies please. Sometimes I dey suspect say my own dey dey too much at times. Making a mountain out of a mole hill. So maybe na one of those instances be this.

Streetinvestor2:
Oga it is just figures he posted.Thr is nothing specific thr to use in tracking anything

Mr Street, you know say you na street man. You no dey into IT. The first thing I did was to check his posting pattern on Nairaland. Did you read my post well sef?

It is more about what he is posting elsewhere on Nairaland not the portfolio. I was happy for him when I saw it too. If he was my brother, I'd sit him down and educate him about the dangers of putting out too much information about your personal life on the web. Most rich people we know with their details in the public have a security ring around them. They are difficult to reach.

He shouldn't be too comfortable asking for some things on Nairaland. All good sha, maybe it's just me. Make una no vex o.

stcool:
You dont need to attack anyone here for expressing themselves in ways they deem fit.

What is wrong with you?

I'm more concerned about his security. A quick check of his activities here shows it might be a careless act.

If you can take steps to cover your online tracks, then all good. In the world we live today, we don't know who is monitoring us. Make God help us.

Princkez:
nothing ooo but the way they are parking the stock...got to #3.30 this morning

Na wa for you o.

Until the off-screen seller is done, Ellah is not going anywhere (in the short term) in my opinion.

That said, strong positive news or deep pockets can absorb the shares the seller wants to offload. Until then, the seller is running the show.

OakPearl:
Now that Honeywell flour mill has followed FMN in entering full bid, could it be the turn of NNFM?
A quick check shows NNFM is on full offer, even though they have a net asset per share of N36.90.
At today’s lowest offer price of N39.15, might not be too bad an entry for the FA purists.
The risk in it is that it’s on full offer, no bid at the moment.
But there are offers higher than the least price.
Meaning once the least price is cleared, there’s a tendency for attention to be drawn to it.
Flour mills (FMN) that is on full bid now actually owns 59.6% of NNFM.
BBM the great, what sayest thou thine charts on NNFM?

Speaking of contagion effect. I see an unrelated stock that could follow FMN. Maybe the manufacturing industry relationship is the connection?

Disclaimer - TA or charting is not my forte so please do not make a buy or sell decision based on this post. Not sure I really understand what I posted sef.

ololufemi:
I am not comparing them in the way you insinuated. What I just shared was to show that the territorial nature of their business is different.

Etranzact processes transactions for financial institutions across different countries especially in Africa, while the Chams seems to be more related to the local territory.

We both quoted Choiceguy?

Choiceguy:
Etranzact will soon touch N10 and Chams is sold for N2 considering they are both doing almost the same business.

You can't compare stocks that way. Comparing SP in isolation is a very misleading way to evaluate stocks. This applies to the Oando/Seplat/Aradel or Geregu/Transcorp Power etc SP comparisons too.

To keep it simple in this particular case and using their FY'23 audited results, just find out their EPS and work out their PE. You will find that Etranzact is still cheaper. They are running their business more profitably based on FY'23 result o. Chams has got work to do to improve their financials. A recovery may well be in play but I haven't done any DD on them.

Disclaimer - I'm not suggesting a buy or sell in either stock.

phadriz:
Watch out for ELLAHLAKES, something is about to be cooked!

I am still conducting due diligence on Ellah Lakes. The 2024 annual report should put some meat on the bones of the recently released Q4 results. It should be out in about two weeks or so.

CBO capital is looking to meet the free float requirement of the NGX so that has put a damper on the SP lately. Debt for equity swaps and equity distribution to their shareholders mean they can come to the market to convert to cash which is what I believe has been happening. SP is not my concern or focus though.

For me, it's about putting the puzzle together. So please give us something to play with.

I like to think of the stock market and investors this way: A set of Photo Puzzle

1. Some of us don't know where to search for the parts.
2. Some of us know where to search but can't put them together. We need a photo guide which often doesn't exist.
3. Some of us can put them together but don't have the complete set. I'd say it's practically impossible to have a complete set.
4. Some of us prefer that the parts are put together by management, then we assess the outcome to see if we like the final picture.

Whichever category we find ourselves largely informs our investment decisions and timing.

I love me a game of puzzles. I feel like I have made considerable progress but some parts are missing and in some cases I need clarifications which the annual report might provide.

Disclaimer - Please do not buy or sell Ellah Lakes based on my post. You could lose your hard earned capital.

Streetinvestor2:
I will rather tell someone to buy sugar if it is only based on future hope villa of 2025 and beyond. Alhaji hope villa still has facts as per the backward integration on ground and expanding farm.Have you consider the insecurity in the North whr this major gold sites are located. And you think 20B can make significant impact with any company trying to provide its own security thr.Let me tell you the truth. This is why I want to sell my okumu oil because of what that level of insecurity can do to a business .why is tompolo being the one handling the insecurity in the delta oil region. Did you see the cost to provide such services. The one in the North is not child's play bro.If they ask you to go to those states to work.will you agree. Na which foreigner go agree go do the mining in 2025 when even the state governors are helpless. Make owner just dey use japa oil dey do jijo for now...lo.
As it stands now as person way stated over 40yrs for North. I dey fear to drive from abj-kad-zaria-katsina-zamfara-sokoto-brinin kebbi which use to be my route as per grain/car business



Note.i maybe be talking based on the fact I am invested in sugar. I added more yesterday at #33.50 and will likely buy more today

I understand where you are coming from. I must confess I can't tell if they are on site today for two reasons:
1. The insecurity you mentioned.
2. They needed this placement finalised to make progress both with drilling and completion of the acquisitions (H&H and Covenant Gem).

I have a question for you though. How about O&G companies that are still operating in the Niger-Delta? How do they organise security for their staff? I have been reading reports of military operations in Mines across the country at the instance of the FG. Is it possible companies also arrange security for their staff working on sites?

They have 12 sites across the country but appear to be working on only 4 at the moment. I think they have ongoing GOLD projects in Osun, Benue and Niger. Taraba is the other state but for a different mineral. They acquired H&H Mines and Covenant Gem but it appears H&H's projects are more advanced than CG's. CG is at Eti-Oni, Atakumosa LG Osun state.

I can confirm to you Japaul had staff on site just a month ago. But like I said the fund raised is important for their next steps so I can't tell how significant their current on-site activities are.

And I understand your Sugar call. It's a safer bet. I put it to you that IF Japaul is successful with their exploration activities, Sugar/Nascon/Rice returns will be child's play (I can't believe I typed that. Totally out of character ). Everyone please go for Sugar that is less risky o.

Disclaimer - Exploration carries huge risks so please be guided.

cocolacec:
https://punchng.com/sec-approves-japauls-n20bn-capital-raise/

“We are excited about the prospects that this special placement brings. The capital raised will enable us to begin gold production by the end of 2025 and target a turnover of N20bn-N30bn. Our focus on mining aligns with global trends and positions us to capitalize on the sector’s potential,” he asserted.

Omooloriredade:
I don't know about buying a stock and going to sleep o. If it's to make money and get out, 2025 is Japaul's year in my opinion.

IF they can successfully complete their gold exploration activities, commence refinery operations (or at least be close to starting it).
They will be back to positive equity off the back of the recently concluded placement.

SP catalysts to look out for:
* Commencement of their N25B dredging contract in the Lekki/Ikoyi axis. This remains their major source of revenue for now.
* Successful completion of their diamond drilling program that could lead to a gold discovery and increase their reserve.
* Completion of their gold processing plant, refinery and other acquisitions.
* Ramping up of their mining business.
* Bonus is if private placement was to institutional or foreign investors. I don't think so though. The new shares represent 57% of the issued share capital.

These are all FA events but not what most here are familiar with. Same situation with Oando.

Disclaimer - This is not a recommendation to buy or sell Japaul. I have been wrong many times before.

You have an edge over the rest of the market if you know or understand what they do not. That is not to say the yr 2025 is guaranteed. They must hit the ground running now that some funds have been raised and hope that mother earth favours them. Let me not bore you with details of what they will need to do regarding their Gold exploration activities. They haven't really provided much update. As at last annual report, Diamond drilling was the next stage.

By the way, they are prospecting for other minerals too.

Some of their reporting is inaccurate but I can forgive them. On their website they claim their target is to achieve 30 million Gold ounces by 2028. That is just a pie in the sky. Silly forecast. Start somewhere first. Previously, they claimed they have 650,000kg inferred reserves of Gold. Likely incorrect too. Now according to this article, they have 637,000 ounces inferred resources of Gold which is more likely (an ounce of Gold is about USD2500 if I'm not mistaken). Maybe it's the reporters and secretary writing rubbish sha. 100 million ounces in this article again ? They need to convert it to "Indicated" resources then Proven reserves with further drilling. Before the Gold even gets to market, the day Japaul announces successful drill results (if they are successful ni o), leave story.........your eyes will see something.

Disclaimer - Please do not buy or sell Japaul based on my post. I'm just here to provide commentary as news is released. Nothing is guaranteed in this space.

ololufemi:
No be today or this current period this Oga don hate Oando PLC. Na since pre Covid-19 era o! 😳

Oga OneGentleGuy and Oga MegaWealth's friend, Mr Time, has clearly shown us wetin dey as per having hope. 🤷🏽‍♂️

I don't think it's about a particular stock.

From what you have shared so far (Mr FBI/CIA/MI6/Mossad Person no fit cross your path o), I see a positive progression.

He was probably younger with youthful exuberance. He was reckless and overconfident. His sign off (Big Smart Guy) confirms this?

Today, he's a changed man. Cautious and more risk averse. His current sign off (Be Wise) confirms this? Which may suggest he learnt some bitter lessons from those days and does not believe in taking unnecessary risks any longer. You can't fault that.

However, emotional reaction to a problem pushes you to extremism. You fit hate mosquito so teh, you go wan bomb the room so you can be sure none escapes.

I prefer a measured approach to issues. Ask the right questions. Determine the cause(s) of the problem. Define a solution. Apply solution. Review and reapply. The world is dynamic. You can't stay static. What worked yesterday might not work today. If you want to stay traditional, all good but know that there are other business ideas or ways of doing business springing up everyday.

Sorry to digress a bit, reminds me of the guy that was asking for advice regarding his kids who are not interested in stock investments. I recognise my view may not apply in your situation so apologies if I'm off the wrong tangent. Who says your children must follow the same path? For as long as they are not irresponsible, kids should be guided to discover their purpose or calling in life. Your portfolio might be what will get them going when the time comes though

Many of the Owner/MD/CEOs today didn't get there because they believed in stocks. They simply followed their entrepreneurial dreams and some had the financial backing of mum and dad to start something. Investment doesn't necessarily translate to stocks, it could be investment in your passion. A parent's role is to provide guidance to ensure it is financially viable and support the child. I have seen companies built from scratch this way. Summarily, my point is that no be by force make your children join NSEMPA

I could be wrong just my 2 cents.