I feel that FIDELITY might pay btw 45-50k DPS for YE, 2022.
...just a gut feeling!

I also feel that a UBA run when it begins might see it push to near N15.
Again, just a feeling... could be just a mere excitement after receiving my small (minimum wage) salary yesterday... and the fact that I didn't exhaust it all in servicing my already accumulated monthly debt.
May God help us!

It is well.

onegentleguy:


The truth is that DANGOTE SUGAR will do well!
Save for the low div declaration, everything appears to be super fine at the moment.

Price of raw sugar is also going down (albeit slowly) in the intl market, which is an added positive for the coy.
Had mentioned this as a worry then (when raw sugar price was pushing up) but later highlighted how price could likely drop following the Russian-Ukraine crises.
I also mentioned the strong positive trajectory the company was building on at the time. (refer to the same article above)

It is well.

pluto09:

@ oracle, what is happening to sugar price in the international market.
I need your inputs here please.
Dangote sugar on my mind.

So your still waiting for endorsement till now... it's alright.
Go and accumulate DS like never before!
BUY... ACCUMULATE... HOLD!

I can not come and go and kill myself for nothing!

It is well

I still like them UPDC, UNILEVER, DS, STERLING BANK, UBA, WAPCO, CHAMS and LIVESTOCK FEEDS!
...I just love them!

But hey! NOT an investment advice.
Due diligence still applies as always.

Selah

onegentleguy:
I just published an article with the title:

"A BANK AND TWO FLOUR MILLING COMPANY"
...breaking down the proposed part acquisition of HONEYWELL FLOUR MILLS (HFM) by FLOURMILLS NIG PLC (FMN) following the recent FIRST BANK (FBNH) insider brouhaha. ...the winners, the loser!

It's published on booksie, the UK blog medium and the personal finance section of some select national dailies.

You may wish to read through by using the link below;
https://www.booksie.com/663035-a-bank-and-2-flour-milling-company

Regards.

Ginalex:
Good morning everyone. Please is there something ongoing in HONYFLOUR? This full bid this morning is bidding 🥺

Last time I talked about HONEYWELL FLOUR. (see article above)
Could be anything driving it.

Might possibly reclaim its 52W high... who knows!

Selah

onegentleguy:


I think the rise in the prices of UBA and STERLING will follow an "aggressive pattern" when it begins.

Those 2 are among the cheapest banking coys at the moment.

TA interpreting a thing or two.

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.
Pls do well to follow your instinct.

It is well

One has left the "station" albeit slowly.
...the other will soon leave.
It's only a matter of time. ...just a little while longer!

It is well

Yet another Off Market Trade...

A total of over 5B (5,001,009,920 units to be precise) of TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATION PLC were done as off market trade today April 26, 2023 @ N2.45 in three deals.

The deal was a negotiated one with UNITED CAPITAL SECURITIES LIMITED as both BUYER and SELLER.

ON ACCESSCORP 2022 YE report...

Pls let's not get too excited.
No doubt, ACCESSCORP did well at declaring a mouthwatering dividend and any dividend growth investor will of course embrace it, but can that be said of a value investor? ...not entirely?

Based on their YE, 2022 Nos, I dare say that UBA is still ahead of ACCESSCORP.
The magt of ACCESS need to be more efficient. They do have a strong "war chest", but the focus to build via inorganic growth has been the bane to a commensurate measure in earnings quality in view of the banks asset size. (AsY/AsQ from key ED)

Until 2021, they were doing well at optimizing cost whilst building the necessary synergy, but it appears their foray into some African countries/romance with 1 or 2 lenders has taken more than it has given them.
I was not entirely impressed by their performance in 2021. ...they should've have done more!
H1, 2022 was particularly a deviation in growth trajectory for me given how the banks AsQ relates to some of her VPDs.

Before 2021, ACCESS was well ahead of UBA in view of how risk relates to VALUE... and rightly so seeing how the former outperformed the latter in CGY YoY. (I recall writing an article to compare both lenders at the time)
But in recent time, UBA has no doubt been the more efficient bank. ...it has done better at delivering more comparative value with less.(liquidity)

By my several estimate, ACCESSCORP earnings quality is relatively fair.
An EPA analysis shows that accruals contribute less than 47% of earnings delivery, so we can say that it's ok.
But Yes, they can and should do better.
Using the same approach pegs UBA @ less 31% on accrual basis... which currently makes her a more efficiently run banking entity than ACCESS (a few other P2P comparative analysis also lends credence to this fact)

With that N1.3 dividend proposal (which of course triggered the excitement and interest in the stock), I expect ACCESSCORP to rise and perhaps hover around N12-13+ in the short term.
However, unless the overall mkt/sector assigned sentiment remains positive, am not so sure about the sustainability in cap appreciation post ex-dividend.
But for that dividend, there could've been a near 1 probability that the price will drop even if it will later rise.

I like ACCESSCORP Q1, 2023, but I also do have some concerns. It's nice to see that they've started the yr in good light but hey! it's not the 1st time they'll have a good quarter performance and follow it up with a material deviation 90 days later.
I'd love to see them show some great measure of consistency.

Before 2021, I had advised for a 70-30% fund allocation in favor of ACCESS (ahead of UBA), but in view of recent guide from their financial print (particular in the last 3 quarters), that portfolio weighting is now 60-40% in favor of UBA.
...I still do.

Bottom line: ACCESSCORP is good, but UBA is better. ...well, for now!
If the share price of the former can push up because of its proposed div cash flow, the latter will because of its slightly better fundamental stance.

CAVEAT: NOT to be inferred as any sought of recommendation. ...the need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

It is well.

Teeonly:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/38273_ACCESS_HOLDINGS_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2022_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2023.pdf

N1.30 Dividend

I must confess; ACCESSCORP surprised me!
...will take an in-depth look at their report later.
Likely going to open on full bid.
Anyway, It needs to drag UBA along.

It is well.

Ginalex:
Please anyone?🥺

Impact will definitely be positive but not far-reaching.

That said, exiting FIDELITY @ N6 ought to have been a logical thing to do.
As I said then; inherent risk didn't leave much room for feasible reward in view of how the coys FVE relates to it's pricing. (RRM/MoS from intrinsic valuation in view)... so exchanging Fidelity for the duo of UBA and STERLING wouldn't be a bad idea.

Fidelity is still ok but it has already delivered above 200% return to those who keyed in @ </=N2.
The banks Q1 and by extension H1, 2023 will help give more clue going forward.

It is well.

yMcy56:

Thanks boss. God bless you.
Didn't know they update the news so promptly like that.
Thumbs up to Morgan Capital!!

Don't mention dear!
Regards

IYGEAL:


Thanks for this info Chief.

Funny enough, I get news from my foreign brokers but never bothered about Nigerian brokers. This feature has been there but I've never bothered to use it.

PS. I am in Transacorp with some tangible units. The good thing is that I am willing to let the stock do what it wants. So fingers crossed.

My Pleasure!

yMcy56:

Boss, pls how or where do you get this Off Market Deal Info?

I believe you use Morgancapital.

Just login to your A/c, go to Menu and click on NEWS. (the last option under Market)
You can always surf around all the news for any given month/period but to see the latest news, click on the small drop-down arrow under the current month.
You get highlights of info/news for the day at the extreme right under DETAILS.

The news for the said cross deal is right there.

Hope this helps.
Regards

onegentleguy:


Some persons will leave and maybe wish they can reenter.
People will exit the door... but more people will enter/come in!

Perhaps, there's an anaconda-money-bag snipping on all offers.
Maybe Mr TRANSCORP might visit that N3 arena or somewhere near it. ...just maybe!

CAVEAT: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of investment advice.

It is well

OFF MARKET TRADE

A total of 787,500,000 units of TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATION PLC were done as OFF MARKET TRADE today APRIL 18, 2023 @ N1.85 in THREE DEALS.
The deal was a NEGOTIATED one with UNITED CAPITAL SECURITIES LIMITED as BUYER and REWARD INVESTMENT LTD as SELLER.

This might be the reason for the quick price volatility today.
So by implication, TRANSCORP traded over 1.6B unit today alone.
Bought by Ucap securities... TE link... It's alright!
Sir FO no go gree oo!

Meanwhile, the stock still managed to close on bid at the day high of N2.03.

We'll see how things play out tomorrow.

onegentleguy:


Some persons will leave and maybe wish they can reenter.
People will exit the door... but more people will enter/come in!

Perhaps, there's an anaconda-money-bag snipping on all offers.
Maybe Mr TRANSCORP might visit that N3 arena or somewhere near it. ...just maybe!

CAVEAT: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of investment advice.

It is well

ZikkyChops:
Back to 2.03

Only few passengers drop for Ojuelegba.
Who knows! maybe we can now proceed to VGC.

Back to full bid!

IHelp:
They will soon change what they said.
Just watching 👀

Keep watching.
...we are with you bro.

_{I pray you won't be the one to later delete your post}

Frangel:
Transcorp o
Transcorp o
Una fi run take cover

Relax bro!
...no need to fret.

Some people need to exit at Ojuelegba, so we can proceed and maneuver our way to VGC.

It is well

onegentleguy:


Mr TRANSCORP already opening with a bid size that's almost 2x that from yesterday's close.
Indeed there was a reason for the huge but often "opaque" vol in TRANSCORP in recent weeks.
There's also a reason the vol movement has now followed a less "aggressive trading pattern" even with a maximum price rise.
...Implying less availability.

Carefully observe the coys trade book.

Something is going on!

Again, NOT to be inferred as any sought of investment advice.

yMcy56:

Honestly!
Retailers are at their Mercy.

Unless you were following through with a trade plan, you shouldn't have exited.
As I said then; something was playing out in the coys trade book and it's still playing out. And by the way, that thing is positive. (see one of the post above)

There's been a sniper-kind-of-accumulation in days and it appears to have gained momentum.

But hey! there should be no regrets whatsoever... you can always align with other value accretive coys.

Let's wait and see where the price gets to.
Regards

onegentleguy:


Who owns what shouldn't be much of a concern.
Our goal as investors is to align accordingly and tap from what would be in it for us.
...this should take higher precedence.

The rise in the price of TRANSCORP could potentially set it off to N2.
I foresee the likelihood of a "bidding war" with a positive would-be impact on the investing public. (shareholders)

Remember what happened with FBNH btw Sir FO, the folks @ LEADWAY INS and Sir Oba Otude**
The bidding war actually helped propel the price... because everyone wanted to ...
They may not even be done with FBNH yet.

Expect something similar (perhaps even more) with TRANSCORP.
A lot is going on at the background in the power and oil & gas sectors.

Again, NOT to be inferred as an investment advice.

Lion123:
Elumelu/Heirs Holdings are the ones behind the massive bids on Transcorp today and not pension funds or institutional funds. Also, Transcorp rushed to publish their bad results yesterday in an attempt to drive down the price but retail investors no dey gree sell. E dey sweet.

yMcy56:
TRANSCORP
Battle of billionaires.......
Chains of 50M single bids on queue.....
Let the man with the highest doe wins.......
More wins for retailers......

** This thing pained me for Loco sha.
He waited so long and decided not to sell........what pushed him against his decision? Chai!
Even me self don sell d tashere unit I get.

Am honestly not surprised!
...the usual disposition of a capitalist!

It is well

yMcy56:


* I deleted the post cos I don't want to be insulted or blamed for anyone's exit/entry decision.

Just ensure to include a caveat to your post where and when necessary, and you should be just fine.

You have been doing a good job at helping to update on happenings around the market (particularly to the new ones in our midst) and to the best of my knowledge, you've also been very open and straightforward.

So it'll be unjust to have you do them with fear.
Just keep doing your thing my dear.
The ultimate decision lies on every individual after due diligence.

Regards

BabsO2:


You left this out again. I think Google finally helped me out for the meaning.
VPD - Value Price Divergence (Not anything to do with Vapour Pressure. Though Google had more on Vapour Pressure Deficit on my initial searches. Perhaps it thought I was doing a Physics search )

VPD - Value Price Divergence
Looks like language of top (Technical and perhaps Fundamental) analysts. My layman understanding is it is helpful in quantifying how far off asset is over priced or under priced.

Amongst the load of info. This is enough for me for now.
Summary
Divergence compares the patterns between the price of an asset and a technical indicator. It is most apparent when the asset price is moving in the opposite direction of what the technical indicator states.
Positive divergence signals potential positive uptrend in price momentum, which can be bullish. Negative divergence signals potential slowdowns and an increase in downtrends in price momentum, which can be bearish.
As divergence is present in only some price reversals, it should not be the sole tool in making trading decisions – it is important to use a collection of tools to substantiate one’s decision.
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/capital-markets/divergence/

Not exactly.... but you are doing great.

Regards.

onegentleguy:


Mr TRANSCORP already opening with a bid size that's almost 2x that from yesterday's close.
Indeed there was a reason for the huge but often "opaque" vol in TRANSCORP in recent weeks.
There's also a reason the vol movement has now followed a less "aggressive trading pattern" even with a maximum price rise.
...Implying less availability.

Carefully observe the coys trade book.

Something is going on!

Again, NOT to be inferred as any sought of investment advice.

yMcy56:
TRANSCORP
The big guys are cashing out big @2.03......
Over 380M bids within 5mins of market opening...
So also more bids are joining......

Some persons will leave and maybe wish they can reenter.
People will exit the door... but more people will enter/come in!

Perhaps, there's an anaconda-money-bag snipping on all offers.
Maybe Mr TRANSCORP might visit that N3 arena or somewhere near it. ...just maybe!

CAVEAT: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of investment advice.

It is well

rahjan:

Glossary: SPL- Statement of Profit and loss, SCF- Statement of cash flow, BS- Balance Sheet, FCFE- Free cash flow to equity, FCF- free cash flow, NCP-net cash position, NDP- net debt position.
This is the ones I have learnt so far.

You are doing well.

CGPR- Cash Generating Power Ratio
CCC- Cash Conversion Circle
EFIR- External Financing Index Ratio
etc

I believe I've highlighted most of these acronyms and even more on many occasions here.

Regards

onegentleguy:


Mr TRANSCORP already opening with a bid size that's almost 2x that from yesterday's close.
Indeed there was a reason for the huge but often "opaque" vol in TRANSCORP in recent weeks.
There's also a reason the vol movement has now followed a less "aggressive trading pattern" even with a maximum price rise.
...Implying less availability.

Carefully observe the coys trade book.

Something is going on!

Again, NOT to be inferred as any sought of investment advice.

BabsO2:


This bad Q1 result can slow the price climb . Topline Revenue dropped instead of the increase of prior quarters, while expenses increased. Leading to bottom line profit cut in half. Room for those acquiring major stakes to ramp up more shares cheaply or what. Let's see what Mr Market will do.

Most folks are always in a hurry to make bold assertions from a coys SPL.
Again, look beyond the SPL and take a deep dive into the SCF and BS.

Only if you saw the massive/triple digit growth accross key VPD including but not limited to the coys NCP, FCFE, CCC, CGPR, FCF and JPBG
with the 1st 2 determinant printing a 107% and 297% positive line.
For a company operating in a broadly capital intensive sector, TRANSCORP managed to achieve all this with just 4% increase in NDP from lower EFIR (debt stance) despite the jump in capital allocation... yet even lower CBR.

Hear this bro;
TRANSCORP did well at delivering value!

The days of <N1 TRANSCORP may we'll be behind us!
Perhaps there's something Sir Tony and FO need to tell us.

It is well

yMcy56:
*Modified*
GTCO declared N2.80k final dividend

Total Dividend for 2022 FYE = N3.10.
A good one.

rahjan:

VPD,MOS/RRM, SPL, SCF and BS position. Haba,
Oluwa mi ero. Show us lesser mortals some mercy

I have highlighted many of these acronyms in time past.
These ones are even much more popular.

MoS- Margin of safety
RRM- Risk-reward margin
SPL- Statement of profit & loss
SCF- Statement of cash flow
BS- Balance sheet

Btw, I am also a learner like you... and quite possibly, an even lesser mortal.

Regards

leparj:
Qualification and payment dates for
GTCO?

GUARANTY TRUST HOLDING COMPANY PLC:

Proposed Dividend: N2.80 (final)
Qualification Date: May 1, 2023
Closure Date of Register: May 2, 2023
Payment Date: May 11, 2023.

Mfunkynation:

What!
N35 billion in 2022 as against N760 million in 2021.
This RED flag is bigger than Nigerian Flag ooo

Relax my dear. ...there's absolutely no cause for alarm.
What if I tell you that GT did slightly better than ZENITH on more VPD in view of their YE, 2022 Nos?
What if I tell you that GT currently "carry a bit more value with it" than ZENITH? (MoS/RRM from FVE)

Both coys are ok, but I have a slight preference for one ahead of the other.

Again, PAT does not always tell the whole story.
Look beyond the SPL and consider deeply their SCF and BS position.

I currently do not hold any of the 2 at the moment but if I were to consider an entry, it would be a 60-40% fund allocation (portfolio weighting in view) in favor of GTB. (ahead of ZENITH)
...of course, using an appropriate trade set-up.

As with ZENITH, the match in div pay from previous year (for GT) might be management's deliberate strategy to calm any expected sell off that may have otherwise built-in from the drop in NPM.
Could also be a way of telling us that the banks growth trajectory could be sustained in 2023.
(Q1, 2023 Nos will give us a clue though)

No thanks to the many structural deficiencies in the system, these banks appear to have built themselves in a manner that gives them the needed shock absorber to take in these sought of loses. (impairments in view)

On the share price, I think that dividend hunters (div growth investors) might want to hold... perhaps until post ex-dividend.
I expect a drop in price thereafter.
Again, I think Q1 and possibly H1, 2023 Nos will to a large extent determine the share price movement.

We'll see how the market reacts to this.

Agbalowomeri:
Emeliefele no wan allow GTCo to give us our dividend

Have it!

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/38231_GUARANTY_TRUST_HOLDING_COMPANY_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2022_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2023.pdf

N2.80 final DPS... as usual, 10k shy from that of ZENITH.

onegentleguy:





"In the stock market world, a cheap/undervalued asset isn't just one whose price is low in terms of VALUE or high in REWARD... but also one whose price is lower in terms of RISK and even higher in peace of mind.
...a wining investor must know how and when to relate in between !!"
~Sinclair

"If you want to KNOW if you can SUCCEED in the stock market, then 1st find out where you fall in between SMART, INTELLIGENT and DISCERNING.
...but remember that the market has been CONFIGURED to have and work with all 3 attribute as a collective."
~Sinclair

"One of the most powerful weapon of SUCCESS or failure within the stock market is in the ability to take advantage of the 'gap' between current perception and REAL VALUE.
...knowing how and when to align with that 'gap' is the core 'survival mark' of a WINING INVESTOR!"
~Sinclair

#uncoveringtherealchams

OFF MARKET

A total of 281,278,802 units of CHAMS HOLDINGS COMPANY PLC were done as OFF MARKET trade today APRIL14th, 2023 at N0.22K in ONE DEAL.

The deal was a negotiated CROSS DEAL with CAPITAL EXPRESS SECURITIES LIMITED as both BUYER and SELLER.

NGX...

onegentleguy:
UBA Q1, 2023 fine print.

That coy needs to reprise to cover up for the wide margin of deviance from intrinsic valuation.

It is well

I think the rise in the prices of UBA and STERLING will follow an "aggressive pattern" when it begins.

Those 2 are among the cheapest banking coys at the moment.

TA interpreting a thing or two.

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.
Pls do well to follow your instinct.

It is well

onegentleguy:


Who owns what shouldn't be much of a concern.
Our goal as investors is to align accordingly and tap from what would be in it for us.
...this should take higher precedence.

The rise in the price of TRANSCORP could potentially set it off to N2.
I foresee the likelihood of a "bidding war" with a positive would-be impact on the investing public. (shareholders)

Remember what happened with FBNH btw Sir FO, the folks @ LEADWAY INS and Sir Oba Otude**
The bidding war actually helped propel the price... because everyone wanted to ...
They may not even be done with FBNH yet.

Expect something similar (perhaps even more) with TRANSCORP.
A lot is going on at the background in the power and oil & gas sectors.

Again, NOT to be inferred as an investment advice.

Mr TRANSCORP already opening with a bid size that's almost 2x that from yesterday's close.
Indeed there was a reason for the huge but often "opaque" vol in TRANSCORP in recent weeks.
There's also a reason the vol movement has now followed a less "aggressive trading pattern" even with maximum price rise.
...Implying less availability.

Carefully observe the coys trade book.

Something is going on!

Again, NOT to be inferred as any sought of investment advice.

beejay1:
Oga onegentleguy, thank you, but please easy with your big english for those of us who are newbies...

So you are the newbie?
It's alright... Quantinue.

Regards bro