onegentleguy:
https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/7240#125628692

Pls kindly refer to the last post above for my view on PZ.
For those asking if it's ok to align with the coy @ N19, pls I do not know.

By now, any Jack should know am a strong advocator of buying into a coy early enough.
When I see an asset where the combination of price and surrounding risk (often attached with a further RP) deviates widely from what should be an appropriate but conservative intrinsic valuation, but also with... I immediately highlight such coys for folks to align.

That's how we spotted the likes of WAPCO @ N9, NEIMETH @ 38k, WEMA BANK @ 56k, UACN @ N4.5, PZ @ N4, NAHCO @ N3+, DANGOTE SUGAR @ N11+, GUINNESS @ N15 and in recent time... UNILEVER @ N10+, TRANSCORP @ 90k, CHAMS @ 20k, GTB @ N17+, UBA & ACCESS @ <N9/11 respectively (but with a slightly weighted preference for UBA ahead of ACCESS), STERLING BANK @ N1.4, LIVESTOCK FEEDS @ 90k, REDSTAR EXPRESS @ N2.3 and UPDC @ 95k.

Virtually all the coys have risen well ahead of these prices but many still have the potential to deliver more. Note that the last 2 names (REDSTAR EXPRESS and UPDC) are yet to fully reflect my price projection.

As I already told some persons, it'd be nice to add OANDO @ <N8 and JAIZBANK @ N1.5 to that list.
Everyone knows i've always advised for a sell on OANDO and in recent yrs, extreme caution but I now see room to tap into VALUE looking at the company's last 3 financial print.
Infact after an extensive analysis, I can say that that "room" could widen (ref: 2.45--3.7x RM) depending on the extent the coys expected 2022 FYE report aligns with my extrapolations.
Assuming the likely scenario of not proceeding with the previously proposed MTO, OANDO is primed to significantly improve it's intrinsic value if some of the Nos in it's FP is anything to go by.
While the company currently prints a great MoS (ref: approx 59% from Fridays close of N7.7), that margin can expand to near 131% if the coys key R&E line meets just 2/5 (40%) of my projection in 2022. (YoY 2022/2023 in view)

The latter, (JAIZBANK) needs no emphasis... especially when it presently prints a FVE of N3.26 after raking-off an appreciable measure of risk premium and attaching just 10% QoQ GM to YE, 2023.

I repeatedly highlighted the immense inherent potential in PZ at the time it was trading @ N4+.
While it's possible the company will increase their MTO peg, am not so sure I can advice one to buy now if they couldn't do that earlier.
...congratulations to all those who aligned then including the fellow who stated (in his mail) he bought over 1.9M unit at an avg price of N4.6

Again, it's always best to key in early!

CAVEAT: NOT an investment advice. The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

Selah

Congratulations to all those who later aligned with OANDO @ <N8 after the guide above.
Though below N4 would've been a better entry peg, but hey! better late than never!

Let me tell us something else about OANDO...

When you think of the price of industrial gas (LPG) which has gone up by approx 47% in just over 90 days (June to date), then you might begin to have a clue of what's happening.
Aside SEPLAT, OANDO is the only other quoted company that is well positioned to benefit from this.
But then again, there's also the part about some other strategic offshore and retail play that the company is now involved in.

Some folks (HNIs and DPIs if you ask me) are already beginning to position into the future prospect of an improved cashflow and earnings capacity in the coy.
I see their CCC, CGPR and JPBG improving aggressively in the next 1-2 yrs.
There's a reason the banks are now jumping at restructuring their LB after having reservations in the past.

With the just released YE, 2021 report, SCF isn't impressive, but a lot will align for good as they release subsequent reports.

There are a few things am seeing in that coys financial print, and 2 of them can be game-changing!
...on that, my analysis and projection favours a great turnaround for the coy.

While fundamentals are starting to look up, certain key top-down approach to investing makes it a favoured "new bride".
That coy will go places!
As I said before, N20-25 is possible in the medium term.

Elsewhere, JAIZ BANK which is the other coy I mentioned above is yet to really move. (ref: CMP is just <9% CGY from recommended target peg)
Some folks will be steering at the stock now but won't key in until it begins to push up fast.
I have since said that JAIZ BANK is grossly underpriced.
With FVE @ N3.26 the coy is presently offering one 'a bonanza' @ CMP.
...technicals is already looking up!

Well, perhaps some persons are waiting to see it at btw N2-2.5 before deciding on whether to align... or maybe they're trying to follow their instinct which is even better.

CAVEAT: Still not a recommendation. Due diligence still applies as always.

Pls kindly note that my initial plea still stands.
I've only put out the post on the proposed 3-fold merger to DANGOTE FOOD and the coy PZ to help guide all who tried to reach out via calls and repeated messages.
Just can't reply to all your mails and messages now.
...I still need some time off.

As I said before; I shall do well to review and revert at the appropriate time.

Do remain blessed and guided by Divine!

https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/7240#125628692

Pls kindly refer to the last post above for my view on PZ.
For those asking if it's ok to align with the coy @ N19, pls I do not know.

By now, any Jack should know am a strong advocator of buying into a coy early enough.
When I see an asset where the combination of price and surrounding risk (often attached with a further RP) deviates widely from what should be an appropriate but conservative intrinsic valuation, but also with... I immediately highlight such coys for folks to align.

That's how we spotted the likes of WAPCO @ N9, NEIMETH @ 38k, WEMA BANK @ 56k, UACN @ N4.5, PZ @ N4, NAHCO @ N3+, DANGOTE SUGAR @ N11+, GUINNESS @ N15 and in recent time... UNILEVER @ N10+, TRANSCORP @ 90k, CHAMS @ 20k, GTB @ N17+, UBA & ACCESS @ <N9/11 respectively (but with a slightly weighted preference for UBA ahead of ACCESS), STERLING BANK @ N1.4, LIVESTOCK FEEDS @ 90k, REDSTAR EXPRESS @ N2.3 and UPDC @ 95k.

Virtually all the coys have risen well ahead of these prices but many still have the potential to deliver more. Note that the last 2 names (REDSTAR EXPRESS and UPDC) are yet to fully reflect my price projection.

As I already told some persons, it'd be nice to add OANDO @ <N8 and JAIZBANK @ N1.5 to that list.
Everyone knows i've always advised for a sell on OANDO and in recent yrs, extreme caution but I now see room to tap into VALUE looking at the company's last 3 financial print.
Infact after an extensive analysis, I can say that that "room" could widen (ref: 2.45--3.7x RM) depending on the extent the coys expected 2022 FYE report aligns with my extrapolations.
Assuming the likely scenario of not proceeding with the previously proposed MTO, OANDO is primed to significantly improve it's intrinsic value if some of the Nos in it's FP is anything to go by.
While the company currently prints a great MoS (ref: approx 59% from Fridays close of N7.7), that margin can expand to near 131% if the coys key R&E line meets just 2/5 (40%) of my projection in 2022. (YoY 2021/2022 in view)

The latter, (JAIZBANK) needs no emphasis... especially when it presently prints a FVE of N3.26 after raking-off an appreciable measure of risk premium and attaching just 10% QoQ GM to YE, 2023.

I repeatedly highlighted the immense inherent potential in PZ at the time it was trading @ N4+.
While it's possible the company will increase their MTO peg, am not so sure I can advice one to buy now if they couldn't do that earlier.
...congratulations to all those who aligned then including the fellow who stated (in his mail) he bought over 1.9M unit at an avg price of N4.6

Again, it's always best to key in early!

CAVEAT: NOT an investment advice. The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

Selah

onegentleguy:


GSK was among the 9 companies I had highlighted as possible candidates for a MTO/buyout or merger/acquisition.

4 coys on the list (UNIONDAC, COURTVILLE, FO and GSK) now done, 5 more to go!
I see a great likelihood of 3 from among the remaining 5 candidate, particularly 2 occurring in the short to mid term.
In fact, there's a near 1 probability that 1 of the said 2 will occur in the near term.

A few days before going on a quiet time, I did an extensive analysis following which a certain company turned up as yet another potential candidate deserving of making the list.
...that coy is CAP.
So yes a MTO/buyout or merger/acquisition is possible in CAP.
Add that coy to the list of 9 (now 5) above and have it on your watchlist!

Again, NOT an investment advice. ...due diligence still applies as always.

https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/4883#82582641

As projected, PZ now joins the list, bringing the No of coys to 5 (UNIONDAC, COURTVILLE, FO, GSK and PZ)

Refer to the part of the 2nd post that reads; "there's a near 1 probability that 1 of the said 2 will occur in the near term"
PZ was indeed the coy I was making reference to and this wasn't the 1st time.

5 from the list done. 4 more to go! (aside CAP)
Recall I recently added CAP to the list.
...keep an eye on them!

On a sidenote, chances are that the company (PZ) may have to pay above the proposed N21 peg, if the rules guiding MTO procedure and pricing still holds water.
According to NGX Prudential guideline, companies proposing a MTO should offer a minimum price equivalent to the highest price the stock has traded in the last 6 months prior to announcement of said proposal.

So by implication, PZ ought to, at the very least, pay a minimum of N23.65 which is the highest price it achieved in the last 6 months. (ref: YtD high) 52 weeks high is N24.
...that peg should be the benchmark.
I hear the shareholders have already turned down the last offer. They should infact insist on an added premium to that benchmark equivalent to the AsQ/AsY position of the coy.

Compliance though will depend on the regulators particularly the SEC and whether shareholders can hold their own at the meeting expected to be conveyed for this purpose.

CAVEAT: NOT to be infered as any sought of recommendation. Due diligence still applies as always.

onegentleguy:
Good day all,

My sincere apologies to all those who've been trying to reach me.
I cannot reply to all your messages, mails and/or even calls at the moment due to some personal issues.
...it's a really difficult time for me right now.

I'll try to review and revert in due course.

I do hope you'll understand.
Regards

Again PLS note that the above still stands.
The decision to quickly put out the posts on GSK was only informed by a candid desire to help guide all those who sent messages and put out calls to me, some, repeatedly to get my view on the matter.

I really can not take your calls at the moment.
...I still need some time off and I hope you understand.
Pls kindly respect my wish on this for now.

Remain blessed and guided by Divine!
Regards

onegentleguy:
There has been a reoccurrence of mergers/acquisition or takeover/buyout and follow-up delisting of some quoted companies on the NSE bourse.

Over the yrs, the likes of NBC, BAGCO, IHS, CAPPA & D'ALBERTO, OASIS INSURANCE, CRUSADER INSURANCE, 7-UP, ASHAKA CEMENT, AVON CROWN CAPS, DIAMOND BANK, NEWREST ASL, DANGOTE FLOUR, CONTINENTAL RE, 1ST ALUMINIUM and most recently AG LEVENTIS to mention just a few, have either undergone a merger, acquisition or takeover/buyout, with the last 6 all brokered in less than a year !!
I think we might see a few more in the not-so-distant future.

Given the current position of their financial print (ref: SCF & BS position) in relation to their present equity prices, the following coys could be future candidates for a merger/acquisition or take over/buy out;

NEIMETH PHARMACEUTICALS, CHAMS, FO, GLAXOSMITHKLINE NIG, COURTVILLE, TRANEX (trans-nationwide express), UNIONDAC, PZ and BERGER PAINTS PLC.

Why?

1st off, is to ascertain if there are doubts surrounding the survival of these companies, so one doesn't lose their money taking (early) positions in them. And next, is to look in on their current earnings capacity, then gauge their relative sustainability over time.

On that line, keeping a tag on their OHLSONS O-SCORE (a key financial tool used to forecast whether a company could go bankrupt), I see them remaining a going concern... which makes them attractive candidates for 'external forces' (investors) who could bid to take them on at a cheap and turn them around.
...and using the EPP (earnings persistence approach; a valuation technique used to predict how often the earnings return of a coy will likely continue to reoccur over time after raking-off risk), I see a higher probability that any take over/buy out (should they occur) will be priced @ great premiums to their current market prices.
With some, at potential premiums of near 105% ROI !!

I particularly like the 1st 5.

On a side note, a few coys in the financial services sector, particularly the INSURANCE segment could also be up for grabs... so watch that space !!

CAVEAT: This piece is only intended to look at quoted coys with chances of a merger/acquisition or takeover/buyout.
...it is NO licence to any sought of recommendation.

My advise? Always do well to follow ur instinct.

GSK was among the 9 companies I had highlighted as possible candidates for a MTO/buyout or merger/acquisition.

4 coys on the list (UNIONDAC, COURTVILLE, FO and GSK) now done, 5 more to go!
I see a great likelihood of 3 from among the remaining 5 candidate, particularly 2 occurring in the short to mid term.
In fact, there's a near 1 probability that 1 of the said 2 will occur in the near term.

A few days before going on a quiet time, I did an extensive analysis following which a certain company turned up as yet another potential candidate deserving of making the list.
...that coy is CAP.
So yes a MTO/buyout or merger/acquisition is possible in CAP.
Add that coy to the list of 9 (now 5) above and have it on your watchlist!

Again, NOT an investment advice. ...due diligence still applies as always.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/gsk-nigeria-calls-an-end-its-business-return-cash-2023-08-03/

Someone sent the above link on GSK's planned delisting to me on telegram earlier this evening and since then, I've had way too much messages and calls (which I couldn't pick up) asking for my view on the company.

Pls my opinion on GSK hasn't changed.
No point repeating previous guide so I'll just give a brief;

Following the release of the coys previous year guide (FY, 2022), I had pegged a FVE of N21.6... and that, using a blend of valuation model that compares inherent reward to the combination of risk and asset pricing, including but not limited to the possibility of a MTO/delisting. (which I had mentioned nearly 2 yrs ago)

With their just released H1, 2022 financial print, there is now room for an added 11-15.8% premium to that FVE (ref: approx N24.4)
While I'd prefer to go with a conservative value of N20, a N24-25 reward is feasible.

That FV peg compares favourably with the likely value a GSK Nig shareholder can reap looking at the collective of cash, equity and debt (zero for the coy) position and discounting for what should be a fair MEP. (EV & SoAP technique in view)

I find this part of the press release quite interesting, especially the part in bold;

"The Board is conscious that shareholders will have many questions; we have been working assiduously with our professional advisors to agree on next steps and we will be shortly submitting to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) a draft Scheme of Arrangement which may, if approved, see shareholders other than GSK UK, receive an accelerated cash distribution and return of capital."

Note the clause; "accelerated cash distribution and return of capital"

Needless to highlight that the company has a huge pile of cash in her BS which also witnessed an astronomical growth of 8,000bps from N12.8B to over N23.2B in the period under review. (ref: H1, 2023 against H1, 2022 report)
...I honestly really do like what I see and can infer from the coys present BS position.

The fact that it makes sense to hold on tight to your stake in the coy (if your in) should already be taken for granted.

To all those who tried to reach out to me; here lies my candid view which by the way, is still very much in tune with my past analysis and review of the company.

CAVEAT: Not to be inferred as any sought of recommendation. ...the need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.
My advice? Pls do well to follow your instinct.

onegentleguy:
On FBNH's huge volume of cross deals and intra-day mkt trades, I've been informed that the name behind the deals is Sir Femi Otedola.
A total value of over N87.8B was put in the bank yesterday.

...Likely scenarios;

• Current positioning may likely take his stake to within 10% or above and ensure broader board control.
On that backdrop, there's a possibility some select board members of FBNH appointed by the former CBN Gov, Mr Godwin Emefiele will be dissolved with names loyal to him brought in.

• He's mopping up additional stakes to wade off competition from fellow BoD rep Billionaires, Oba Otudeko, The Odukale's of Leadway Ins... but particularly Sir MA the Conoil/Globacom chief.

• He will likely take up the position of new BOD Chairman of FBN Holdco when all of this is over.

CAVEAT: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of recommendation. The need for due diligence should always take higher precedence ahead of this post.

Selah

My source was probably misinformed. (on the actual identity)
It looks like it's one of the other billionaires... Sir Oba Otudeko.

Some of the likely scenarios stated in the post above may still play out but this time, in favor of Sir Oba Otudeko... though that would be on the assumption that current status quo is maintained. (no further change in shareholding structure from fresh positioning by other majority holders)

But then again, we may not have seen the last of "their power tussle".

https://businessday.ng/news/article/flush-with-honeywell-cash-otudeko-snaps-up-record-first-bank-shares/

Again, NOT to be inferred as any sought of recommendation.

onegentleguy:
Good day all,

My sincere apologies to all those who've been trying to reach me.
I cannot reply to all your messages, mails and/or even calls at the moment due to some personal issues.
...it's a really difficult time for me right now.

I'll try to review and revert in due course.

I do hope you'll understand.
Regards

Pls kindly note that the above still stands for now. ...I really need some time alone.
I shall do well to revert to all concerned at the appropriate time.

Until then, remain blessed and guided by Devine!

On FBNH's huge volume of cross deals and intra-day mkt trades, I've been informed that the name behind the deals is Sir Femi Otedola.
A total value of over N87.8B was put in the bank yesterday.

...Likely scenarios;

• Current positioning may likely take his stake to within 10% or above and ensure broader board control.
On that backdrop, there's a possibility some select board members of FBNH appointed by the former CBN Gov, Mr Godwin Emefiele will be dissolved with names loyal to him brought in.

• He's mopping up additional stakes to wade off competition from fellow BoD rep Billionaires, Oba Otudeko, The Odukale's of Leadway Ins... but particularly Sir MA the Conoil/Globacom chief.

• He will likely take up the position of new BOD Chairman of FBN Holdco when all of this is over.

CAVEAT: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of recommendation. The need for due diligence should always take higher precedence ahead of this post.

Selah

Good day all,

My sincere apologies to all those who've been trying to reach me.
I cannot reply to all your messages, mails and/or even calls at the moment due to some personal issues.
...it's a really difficult time for me right now.

I'll try to review and revert in due course.

I do hope you'll understand.
Regards

https://businessday.ng/sponsored/article/chamsswitch-is-certified-for-unionpay-card-issuing-and-processing-to-drive-financial-digitalization-in-nigeria-and-beyond/

Explosive news on CHAMS as it's subsidiary ChamsSwitch announces a partnership with UNIONPAY INTERNATIONAL, a Global card payment solutions provider with presence in over 75 countries and clientele of more than 180 million card users.

According to the Nilson Report, UnionPay ranks first among all card schemes in card issuance and transaction volume worldwide.

I recall advising folks to accumulate CHAMS, highlighting its solid inherent value following an extensive analysis at the time the company was still trading for 20k.
...well, the coy already prints a CGY of approx 240% with CMP closing @ 68k on Tuesday.

Does it have the potential to deliver more?
There is indeed a near 1 probability!

Fundamentally, CHAMS is primed to trade above N1 in the short to mid term, with FVE/CIV pegged @ N1.37... using a mix of valuation model that assigns a conservative approach (just 5% QoQ GM to H1, 2023) but attaches a RPM 10% above current surrounding figure.

Technically though, there may be bumps along the way as certain key indicators slow down to build up/reproduce a fresh momentum for another push up.
But it's safe to say that a period of HL and HH is likely in the near term.

By the way, congratulations to all those who aligned with STERLING BANK and LIVESTOCK FEEDS @ N1.4 and 92k respectively following our guide here.
Both names already delivered ROI of over 160% and near 130% before the slight pull back in price.

Anyone can still earn a great return from taking position now, but like I always tell folks; It's always best to key in early.
I repeatedly called for a buy in CHAMS @ 20k.

What to do now?
Pls follow your instinct.

The good thing is; there are still a few coys we also highlighted here that are yet to record appreciable returns, including some select names in a certain sector which though has printed a bit of gains, still has a lot of POTENTIAL TO DELIVER MORE!

CAVEAT: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of recommendation. The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

Saleh

Getting filters of an imminent increase in CUSTOMS DUTY.
...on this, my source is quite reliable.

Elsewhere, there's also a plan to raise VAT in the near term.
This though will among other factors, depend on the successful implementation and follow up review of the planned hike in electricity tariff (removal of subsidy in power) beginning July 1, 2023.
...my source here isn't as reliable as the former.

From an NGX mkt perspective, there will be losers but there will also be winners.
Stay ahead of the curve!

Selah

Congratulations to all those who bought STERLING BANK @ N1.4+, LIVESTOCK @ 92k, REDSTAR EXPRESS @N2.3 and the select other coys we highlighted here.

STERLING already delivered over 135% ROI while LIVESTOCK FEEDS has returned near 85%.

Fortunately, it's still a bit early to align with the many other names we've also mentioned here.
I also highlighted the immense potential inherent in a certain sector... it will be explosive "when the time of reckoning comes"!

But no point repeating previous guide. ...so you may wish to surf through my past post should you require further guidance.

Selah

Geovanni412:


Chief,

The market is bullish but it is unsustainable

It is a market similar to the COVID pump that happened in cryptos, shitcoins and us stock markets.

JUMIA did a 14x during that period...it has since returned to it's price pre COVID.

Solution is to look for stocks that haven't pumped that meet your investment reqmts. (Some of these stocks include intbrew, npfmcrfbk, nb, flourmills, uacn, livestock feed, unilever)

A word is enough for the wise.

See image of jumia 👇

It's obvious you missed the very essence of the post you quoted.

Perhaps, it might help if you could read it again, but this time, read between the lines and try to relate it to the recent views of the recipient so you can infer what should be an appropriate revert or advice to them.
...would also be nice if you could take out some time to read through previous posts before given a feedback.

Thanks for the guide but we already hold many of those coys.
Most of the asset you mentioned were among the select names we recommended here in times past... at least 5 of those names (FLOUR MILLS, UACN, INTERBREW, LIVESTOCK FEEDS & UNILEVER), and over 80% of them did deliver btw 70--230% ROI/NPM.

My previous guidance and follow up recommendation on FLOUR MILLS was @ N14+ at the time I gave a brief on it in one of my article.
UACN was @ N4.5 to N5
UNILEVER was @ N10, INTERBREW @ </=N5 and most recently, LIVESTOCK FEEDS @ 92k.

I don't give recommendations when prices are high.
I give such guidance, oftentimes with fact-driven explicit analysis and/or highlight when prices are ridiculously low and there's a near 1 probability that RRM already trumps IV. (infinitesimal or near zero risk)
...something I sometimes describe as; when an assets potential reward derivative makes a mockery of the combination of price and inherent risk.
And because it usually involves very complex financial analysis and modelling, some buy-side analyst may not see it... because some of the Nos they crave for in the coys financial print would either be hidden or not there.

I don't give recommendations just for the sake of it!

As for your comparative view with Jumia; I think @ l bullbearmkt has given you a valid and near perfect response.

Regards

Too many post to read from, but I can't keep up with them all for want of time.

Kudos to all those who strive to keep the platform alive with meaningful input/contributions.
...great job you all are doing!

And thanks to all those who reached out while I was away. ...I do appreciate all the show of love and will try to revert to all pending mails and messages as soon as I can.

Really trying times, but it is well.

Selah

YoungBuffet:
Opportunity to buy more of Fugaz comes again and for those looking for Total opportunity to buy again

I get the feeling that you're having plenty of fun seeing how most of your recent posts appears to describe one who lives in cloud cuckoo land and largely deviated from reality.

I like the way you seem to have built a pie in the sky representing what is clearly a broadly bullish market trend as a bearish and manipulated one.
I once told someone that those who try to fight the trend (whether positive or negative) never win against the mkt. ...it's either they're crushed, often lamentably, or they get left behind.

The mkt is on a positive part, and that, for good reason.
Unlike in previous seasons, there's a reason the rise has been a bit selective/seemingly rotational and not spread across all coys (mkt wide sentiment) at a go.
So I'd like to think it will not be a straight line push up, but yes a period of HLs and HHs as certain assets reprise to reflect their intrinsic valuations is feasible in the near term.

We can not "fight" the mkt! ...we can only seek to "play along with it" having in place a workable strategy that's unique to our investing personality and target objectives.

But it's always nice to see folks like you who put out cautionary statements time and again so mkt players can limit their expectations and not drop their guard as it relates to investment planning, particularly in an uptrend like the one we have now.
That said, when you repeatedly do the same thing for so long, you create a justifiably moral ground for others to question your motive/intent irrespective of whether they might be true.

You've done really well dishing out statements of caution so folks can weigh things in perspective in their investment decision making.
I personally welcome and respect that and quite frankly, am being very honest!
But if I were you, I'd take a well deserved break now. ...'cause i'll be worried that some persons might already think i've got a foot-in-mouth disease.
Again, you have done noble but i'll advise you take a break.
...you deserve it!

By the way the phrase; "concept of neutrality" as used in one of my Nuggets below relates with "trend following".
With the financial mkt, it's always best to "live in the present" and where necessary, seek to take advantage of what the future holds.

It is well

"One of the finest similarity between a bull and a bear market is that both OVERCONFIDENCE and UNDERCONFIDENCE can be punishable offences.
...'the jury' tends to vindicate those who understand 'the concept of neutrality' where necessary and are swift enough to act on it!"
~Sinclair

"I know of a man who was 'drowned in the vicissitudes of the stock market'. ...his pathways was built around the PAST than the FUTURE, until the PRESENT left him behind!"
~Sinclair

Agbalowomeri:
Short term traders Thursday is a good time to take profit

GANDALF1:


When you see this type of advise from Agba, it means he wants to dump on you tomorrow (that's if he is not dumping on you already). Be wise

Your post appears to speak from a line of boldness and certainty than plausibility.
But if indeed the only intention was to "dump" on others as you put it then his post should have read;
"Short term traders Thursday is a good time to BUY" ...and NOT with the use of the clause "take profit" as he clearly stated.

Although the application of logical reasoning could mean that he probably plans to sell tomorrow/Wednesday with less volatility (competition from other likely holders), which is why he's supposedly advising others to sell the day after. (Thursday)
But then again, there's also a chance that this may not be the case since he followed up the said post with this;
"...short term approach is not the best for the current market"

So there's a much higher likelihood his posts wasn't driven by personal motive but simply dolled out from having a random thought after some sought of due diligence.

In any case, anyone who did their homework well shouldn't necessarily rely on someone else to tell them how or when to exit the mkt. ...not Agba, not Onegentleguy, not emaewunmi, or anyone else.

If one gets an early guide on when to buy like we often try to do here, then that's great... but the decision on when to exit, which usually depends on several factors (risk tolerance, investment horizon, personality etc) should solely depend on the individual.

Waiting for someone to notify you on when & how to align and also exit a coy is akin to wanting to be spoonfed.
No one is paid for anything here. We all should be appreciative of the services, however little, that anyone decides to give.
...that might spur them to want to do more!

Pls let's be guided.
Regards

Ladasha:
Experts in the house, please what would be the likely impact of President Tinubu's speech;

“The central bank must work towards a unified exchange rate…they should direct the fund from arbitrage to meaningful investment”

“Interest rates need to come down, currently too high, anti-people, anti-business, we have to work on all of those”


1. How will a unified exchange rate impact USD/NGN?
2. Is it wise to hold cash in NGN and watch events unfold?
3. How will the President statements affect NGX and stock prices?

Straightforward answers;

On 1, Positive for the Naira and Naira-backed assets.
How?
• All mkt players will now have a near equal access to the currency at a presumed fair rate which should drive more acceptability, create less volatility (less margin for arbitrage), hence better exchange pricing over time.

• A fair playing field for export, hence improved FX flow as the govt will no longer indirectly subsidize imports.

• Increase in diaspora remittances, FPI/FDI inflow given that a convergence will create exchange rate clarity and boost the much needed mkt confidence.

It's imperative to state that this policy alone can not achieve a hit-off-kind-of desired result in isolation.
For an all-touching impact, several key policy decisions will need to be proficiently implemented and effectively managed accross the fiscal and monetary end of the economy as a collective.

2) A RIGHT BLEND of asset mix is advised until we can see how effective a policy implementation it is.
However holding a higher portfolio weighting in Naira-backed assets should be a logical thing to do NOW and in the near term.
I'll advise a 60-70% position in Naira backed securities, and 15-20% each in FX-related assets and real estate.

3) Absolutely positive for the NGX and I think the reason should already be taken for granted at this time.
That said, it's important to also permute from the fitting names/coys with high value accretive stance and which are well positioned to reap from the take-off of these policies.
...we already highlighted a select few of them here!

It is well

My inference from Pres. Tinubu's inaugural speech.
...what to expect from his administration;

1. Birth of a unified exchange rate aimed at redirecting/channelling excess arbitrage gains from different multiple window rate into real sector driven investments.

2. Policy mechanisms targeted at reducing interest rate to curb the pressure on cost-push inflation, improve purchasing power (<<PPP) and supplement the collective objective as highlighted in item 1 above.

3. Possible review of the currency swap deal by the previous administration.

I have a slight concern here but will prefer to wait to see how they intend to go about it.
Am guessing the concern should be around the lack of pragmatic impact on the greater No of Nigerians particularly the unbanked and it's attendant impact on Naira-backed assets.

4. Removal of petroleum subsidy with allocated/entitled resources directed towards investment in key sectors of the economy.

Long overdue! However, I expect this to further put pressure on cost and exacerbate current surrounding risk.
...this is why I think item 3 above is in order. (to absorb some of that pressure following full implemention)
Notwithstanding, a few key decisions will need to be taken at the fiscal end to get this to work.
Whatever happens though, there will surely be short term pains.

5. Planned reforms in the power sector aimed at boosting the accessibility and affordability of electricity via aggressive generation & transmission networks and the decoupling of power at the center by encouraging the development of additional sources of power at State levels.
...I like this!

6. Reforms in the Agricultural sector aimed at increasing production and ensuring long-term food sufficiency through the CEB to regulate pricing & secure/insure the income of farmers/Agric players... creation of Agric hubs to engage value-added processing & improve production... and the exposure of the livestock sector to modern technology to minimize usual bottlenecks & maximize gains.

7. Tactful job creation via infrastructural initiatives that are labour-intensive... industries that are labour-driven... and the provision of social welfare related services targeted at the poor & vulnerable in society.

8. Boosting of GDP growth through stringent fiscal policy measures that reduce import dependency and encourage domestic manufacturing as well as budgetary reforms to reduce surrounding risk and stimulate the economy.

Efficiency with item 5 is needed to mitigate the challenges that would come with implementing item 4 and getting it to work.
Item 4 will pose a challenge towards achieving item 8, but line 1 & 2 can lend a helping hand if proficiently and effectively managed, particularly with the Dangote Refinery billed to begin production in a few months.

I must admit that some of the items were hastily given but overall, it's a market friendly speech.

Are these great plans? Yes
Do I believe they're achievable? Absolutely!
But notwithstanding, it will surely come with many thorns & pains in between.

The problem is that with Nigeria, "belief" and expectations tend to be synonymous to dissatisfaction and disappointment.
Talk is cheap! is unfortunately a very familiar term when describing our leaders.
I sincerely hope it won't be business as usual this time!

Well, we know that Nigeria a "portfolio county" for now, so I'll prefer to focus on what's in all this for me?
Likely sector winners from this speech...

• DBMs... already highlighted the names we like here.
• Coys in the oil & gas space... ARDOVA, OANDO, SEPLAT.
• Coys in the health sector.
• Coys in the Brewery sector... also highlighted the names we like here.
• Some select names in the Insurance sector. (I see a connection)
Elsewhere, UNILEVER, DANGOTE SUGAR, TRANSCORP, UPDC, CHAMS, LIVESTOCK FEEDS, NAHCO, RED STAR EXPRESS...

CAVEAT: NOT an investment advice. ...the need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

ositadima1:
If I were the one calling him a clown, nobody would mind. But you are like a celebrity, so your words carry more weight.

Of course, I would mind!

And pls let's leave out that tag. ...no one is a celebrity here, INCLUDING ME.
Some persons are just more privileged than others, and that, ONLY by DEVINE GRACE!

Just because Mr A & B has it going on well in life doesn't mean that Mr X & Y should be treated tactlessly, sloppily or indifferently.

At the risk of sounding a bit too modest, we are all here to learn, relearn and help each other grow. ...and if that's still what this honourable platform stands for, then WE ALL should endeavor to address each other in a responsible and respectful manner.

Regards

Agbalowomeri:


Why are you bothered about his comments? Provide the guy a solution to raising the 5M unsecured loan with a 6-year tenure

Agba pls read my 1st post to @ emaewunmi and the 2nd one you just replied to.
...read them again and try to make sense of the words; APPROACH & MANNER and how both relate to and can infact impact on the efficacy of a counsel or advice given to someone.

Need I remind you that one of the most effective way of dishing out advice/guidance is by putting oneself in the recipient's shoes and NEVER being JUDGEMENTAL.
Where these 2 are lacking, chances are that your counsel/advice will less likely be taken or have little or no impact when taken.

Most of the views and feedback that was given to the fellow (@ Thazd) were absolutely in order!
...I was infact typing to advice him along a similar line before I stumbled on emaewunmi's post.

In trying to give or offer advice, we should try even more to be HUMAN.
I am NOT against the message/guide, I am against THE WAY IT WAS GIVEN.
Again, guidance can always be given without been OVERINDULGENT or HARSH.
@ Pa emaewunmi can do better!

And if you still nurse the same views as earlier or still see nothing wrong in the way he addressed the said fellow, then am sorry I can not help you.

Do take care bro.

emmanuelewumi:


It is clownish to expect an unsecured loan of N5 million for 6 years for a new business, the founder has not exhibited a track record of success in business or his personal finance, the founder does not have tangible asset to contribute to the equity of the start up business. The founder is also a known gambler


The bank manager will walk him out of his office immediately

So you are confidently saying you couldn't have passed your message WITHOUT using the word "clownish" or that that word is a fitting one to help him assimilate and appreciate your guidance?

One would've thought that you'd easily comprehend the point I was trying to put out there.
...you ought to know better bro!
But there's really no point going back and forth on this.

Do take care.

emmanuelewumi:
Don't get me wrong it is very possible to work for 3 years without savings, but one would have used part of the money earned to buy things that can be sold to raise money.


But that clown does not have savings and does not have anything to sell in order to raise money for his proposed agric business

Every other guidance/thing you stated is very much in order except for that part in bold and a bit of what I consider immoderate bluntness here and there.
...we can always guide others without appearing to be overindulgent or harsh.

Our spoken words/guide can either make or break someone.
Even the scriptures advises us to "keep a tight rein on our tongue" so we do not use it to incite or make others stumble. And at Prov 12:18, the wise king Solomon gave a classification to what forms of speech/advice can infer a "stab" or connote "healing or proper guidance".

Ask yourself; What if the situation where to be turned around... what if I was he?
Did other folks guide or address me in a similar manner in my early beginnings?
Even now that am doing well, would it feel normal/ok if I sought advise from someone and they addressed me in that manner?

As I always tell folks; whatever life offers us is only but a PRIVILEGE made possible by GRACE from DEVINE!
...which is why we should rather treat people with compassion, graciousness and nobility.

If there's anyone that ought to know this, it's you!
Many folks here hold you in high esteem. Saying that you should be noble and exemplary should already be taken for granted.

...just offering a piece of advice.
Regards

yMcy56:

Think what Ecobank is paying is around 0.50k
Result not so fantastic.

For ETI, FA doesn't look encouraging. ...@ CMP and based on the coys last financial print, intrinsic value leaves a slngle digit % peg btw RRM and inherent risk using a conservative estimate.
...now that's not too nice.

Elsewhere, TA also doesn't look good.
...lots of key indicators seem to suggest that price could drop from current peg.
- Appears overbought on key time-frames with SRSI, OBV and ADL supportive of that stance.
- Yesterdays AWP and eventual close was below the coys 15D MA and that with an AMtD vol, suggesting that the stock might witness increasing selling pressure.
- Price still trading below the T-line on key time-frames (DWM) and drifted from the cloud indicative of bear grip on the coy. (see BBP, DMI...)

Only slight positive is that it isn't a sector wide sentiment but specific to the stock (FA possibly lending a hand), so perhaps price may not drop that much from here.
It could even push up in price but ETI is not a coy to consider now if one is seeking for TRUE value. ...well, for now.
I see <9 as a good zone to snipe but then again, there are better coys out there.

JAIZ and UNITY are the only other 2 banking names with similar but less notable negative sentiment, but the former could ...
UNITY is a no no for me, but JAIZ is a better option if one can do their homework well. (trade set-up in view)


There are better coys with healthy/sound FA and quite promising TA. ...quite a No of them looking really bullish.

It is well

Mpeace:
The publication is confusing but this little quote might shed more light: Also speaking, the Chairman of TransAfam Power, Stanley Lawson, said the agreement was instrumental to the company as a commitment that government would pay for the power they generated and transmitted to the national grid, while pledging the company’s commitment to drive power generation in the country
It might be positive in the sense that government will pay for the electricity generated by the transcorp plant, it might also be negative in the sense that Nigerian government sabi owe money.

It is a POSITIVE development for TRANSCORP.

I don't really have much time to put out a lengthy post now, but just know that a few great reforms will play out in that sector which the coy is primed to benefit from.

TRANSCORP might visit the 5th boulevard this year.

CAVEAT: NOT an investment advice. ...the need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

IHelp:


I want to believe that the world's money bags get to know some information before they come to public domain.
If the above statement is correct, it will reflect on TA based on the action they take.

You just might be right you know!

Regards

Agbalowomeri:


Why Una dey convolute unrelated matters? Wetin COVID-19 gat to do with TA

Apparently you didn't get the drift.

It is well