BabsO2:


Prices also need to correct for improvement in the underlying assets. BVPS and EPS have been growing while prices have not trended in the same direction in the last five years thereby increasing the VPD. (@onegentleguy, I hope I used VPD correctly )

I know not what you are talking about in the latter part of...
But yes, I agree there's been an improvement in the underlying assets of some select names over the years.
Our duty is to permute from the right ones with high value accretive stance after due diligence.

Regards bro.

purity2all:


I don't just understand this market. I set my buy order at 2.59 just before 9:40am . Only for me to log in about 20 minutes later and saw people offering it @ 2:45. I got a little bit angry. And now, boom! it has climbed to 2.84.

You should be happy your approx 10% up then.
...but that's if you decide to sell today though.

Regards

onegentleguy:
I still like them UPDC, UNILEVER, DS, STERLING BANK, UBA, WAPCO, CHAMS and LIVESTOCK FEEDS!
...I just love them!

But hey! NOT an investment advice.
Due diligence still applies as always.

Selah

Ades1:


Bros I respect you, but like I said lets be guided! At 9,900% the market cap of Transcorp will be N1.5 trillion!

Is it possible for me to become a billionaire tomorrow? Yes, very possible, but is probable? NO!

Just because anything is possible does not mean we should be throwing imaginary numbers around

Not sure you got the message from my post.
Am not saying you're wrong neither did I say he was wrong.

The tendency to exaggerate is often driven by expectations and backed by faith, hope or sometimes overconfidence. But where such expectation is perceived to be measurable or estimable, there is a probability of occurrence- however slim. (even if its just 0.01)

There's a reason the pricing of an asset is to a large extent determined by how investors interpret potential future cash flows and less about real value.
...otherwise many coys in the NGX would be trading for far more and others for much less.
Ever wondered why GEREGU is selling for near 4x its EDP at present?

As I said before; It's possible he hinged his forecast on the expectation of some positive reforms and ray of hope in the power sector, so that (or perhaps something else) could've been his yardstick for measurement.
You on the hand may have a different opinion/view.
TRANSCORP can push up to N100, N250 or more in 5 yrs but it can also drop to N1, 20k or even 0.1k in that time.
I just want to accord a good measure of respect to his opinion as I would to yours... because in the financial mkt everything is possible!

Oftentimes, the mkt is no "respecter" of balance and/or fairness. Things can sometimes "go overboard or below the line"... again, implying that everything is possible!

If you can, pls find time to view these 3 movies/documentaries;

Capitalism- A Love Story
The China Hustle
Something Ventured

It might seem tricky to establish a connection to the subject discuss but am sure you'll find the link in between, especially after watching them twice.

Regards

Ades1:


10,000% in the next 5 years? Please lets be guided when PREDICTING the future! I wonder why we did not see all these posts until recently whe Ote$ started his manipulations.

BTW, the UCAP you used as an example only returned 450% to you and UCAP is like the only major triple+ bagger example I see on here but some how Transcorp is goin to do 10,000%.

It would actually be a 9,900% return.

Now that may seem exaggerative and possibly a bit over the line, but it's not impossible.
The growth of a firm can follow an exponential pattern in an unimaginably short timeframe if and where there are the right "square pegs in square holes".

The said coy did deliver near 200% ROI within a space of just 10-11 days you remember?
Assume just 0.1% of that run rate daily, unlock true value with a proactive and efficient magt and TRANSCORP might deliver even more in <4 yrs.

It's possible he hinged his forecast on the expectations of many positive reforms and ray of hope in the power sector, but I also do understand your drive to want to call him to order.
This though is a subtle reminder that nothing is impossible in the financial mkt.


Bottom line; He may not be wrong with his assumption... neither are you!
TRANSCORP can push up to N100 in 5 yrs but it can also drop to 20k.
It can go either way. (value accretion or value erosion) ...everything is possible!

It is well

onegentleguy:


N2.91... using an appropriate blend of valuation model, assuming a very conservative growth forecast in 2023 and attaching an appreciable measure of risk premium.
...otherwise FVE would've been N3.47. (going mild on that part in italics)

I prefer to work with the former though.

Do take care.

STNWAUME:


@OGG
what is UBA fair value?

Using the exact same line as that of STERLING BANK above, just replace that N2.91 and N3.47 FVEs with N18.6 and N21.15 respectively for UBA.

As you'd rightly expect, I prefer that N18.6 FVE.

Btw, I hope you're still aware that UBA doesn't trade in US dollar but in Naira.
Wondering if your reason for asking is driven by an intent to buy or take position, seeing that you've always been a strong advocate of the conversion of any and all Naira-backed asset to $ on many occasion in the past.
What changed?
...just kidding bro.

Regards

BabsO2:


Ah Nah Billion. Better then.
And Nah Madam Buy am. Much Much Better Then

Yes.
Infact the said purchase (2,063,484,991 units) implies that she (Dr. Awele Elumelu) now holds an approx 5.067% stake in TRANSCORP... making her a key stakeholder of the coy.

I have since said that Sir TE might be up to something.

#thatdiamondintherough
#immensehiddenvalue

CAVEAT; NOT to be inferred as any sought of investment advice. ...due diligence still applies as always.

eziokwunwoko:
Good morning OGG
What is the fair price of STERLING BANK.

N2.91... using an appropriate blend of valuation model, assuming a very conservative growth forecast in 2023 and attaching an appreciable measure of risk premium.
...otherwise FVE would've been N3.47. (going mild on that part in italics)

I prefer to work with the former though.

Do take care.

A breakdown of the revenue of different coys and how their cost line impacted earnings delivery.

Pertinent questions;
1) What companies were (more) efficient at optimizing cost? (an offshoot of better CIR and improved AsY)
2) What companies were better at earnings delivery? (ref: higher NPM, ROIC/ROCE, CROIC, CCC, CGPM etc)

A focus on the banking sector and any Jack will clearly see the logicality in choosing GTB ahead of ZENITH and UBA ahead of ACCESS at present. (portfolio weighting in view)

ZENITH amassed over 87.9% more RM (revenue margin) than GTB, yet GT delivered over 1,020bps in NPM than it.
Similarly, ACCESS amassed near 78% more RM than UBA, yet UBA delivered about 1,132 bps in NPM than it.
...a clear indication of their efficiency at utilizing less capital to deliver more!

Notice the wide margin btw UBA & ACCESS. ...even more than that btw GTB & ZENITH.
Again, notice the slight difference in key VPDs (NPM, CGPM, JPBG, CBR/CRM, AsY/AsQ etc) btw ZENITH and UBA.
UBA is doing something right!

GTB has the highest NPM. ...a clear indication of her prudence, efficiency and moat-like position at delivering higher value among the key banking names.

There's something STANBIC is also doing right!
The lenders NPM is only battered by that of GTB despite having the least RM therein. (just approx 1/5 that of ACCESS)

It is not surprising that UBA, GTB and STANBIC currently has the best well diversified and effectively assigned loan & investment driven portfolios amongst DBMs.
The EM and EFIR weighting (a make-up of FL) of those 3 is yet another solid reason we prefer them ahead of their peers.

Inference: GTB, STANBIC & UBA in that order were miles more efficient amongst the top banking names.
Little wonder why they have a better AsY/AsQ in view of key VPDs and EDs in their financial print.
ZENITH and particularly ACCESS performed below par.

I love those 3 in bold but am especially fond of the last name (UBA) in view of its CMP.

A similar analysis on other (tier 2) DBMs and one can easily peg FIDELITY, STERLING BANK and FCMB as the 3 best placed coys on value accretive stance from LtR in that order.
But then again, I have a much higher preference for STERLING BANK in view of its CMP.

It's only but a matter of time before UBA and STERLING BANK reprises to reduce the wide margin of disconnect btw their CMP and intrinsic valuation. (RRM in view)
...just a matter of time!

We have said this much in the past.

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post. Due diligence still applies as always.

BabsO2:
Good to see relatives of Tony loading up Transcorp shares. Here a relative is reported to have bought 2million shares at N3.12 earlier this month.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/170_Executed_Insider_Dealing_Notification_-_Dr._Awele_Elumelu_(_12th_May_23).pdf

I guess you meant to say over 2 billion.
...it's actually 2,063,484,991 units @ N3.12 to be precise.
By the way, the said relation is Sir TE's wife, Dr. Awele Elumelu.

It is well

9free:


Which one be French kid again?

Think he's referring to ACCESSCORP.

It is well

Lion123:


Tuale baba! You be maths genius! Yes, that's the exact amount of shares I had as at the close of share register. I bought more after markdown sha, and might buy more tomorrow with some of the dividend I got today.

I thought as much!

Oya come and offer your tithe to the boys.
...you know we have to continue to move the ministry forward.

Regards

dapix:
Dear OGG,

I want to believe he has upto 2,000,000 units in order to earn such dividend.

No I don't think so.
...if he had up to 2M unit of GTBANK, his div cash flow would've been over N5M (somewhere in the range of N5,040,000)

Look at that calculation again. ...it's quite simple.

That estimate of 1,686,542 unit may not be his exact holding, but it sure will be in that range...
the discrepancy (if any) will only be in the last 2 or 3 digit. (that 42 or 542 unit)
Might be btw 1,686, (540-550) unit.

It is well.

emmanuelewumi:



240,000 units bought during the IPO in 2001 for N1.2 million would have grown to about 1,700,000 units through bonus shares.


Check the share capitalization history of GTB

You have spoken well.

Indeed it is an indisputable fact that dividend cash flow from a well articulated investment in equities (possibly DCA with an efficient trade set-up) is a great way of building/generating solid passive income and laying a strong foundation to financial freedom.

May that be our lot!

Regards

Lion123:
GTCO dividend don land. Ask me for a bottle of beer when you see me at Pekas in Ikeja tonight
I wan do Zorya before, but lemme save money. So Pekas.

With this we can do a quick estimate to determine your portfolio holding in GTBANK.

A quick math...

Assuming that V is the vol you hold in GTB, then V x N2.80 (ref: YE, 2022 final div cash flow)= GDA (Gross dividend amount) paid.

Let GDA= y
Then y--0.1y= N4,250,086.04 (Note that 0.1y connotes 10% WHT on the value of y)
So 0.9y= N4,250,086.04
Hence y= N4,250,086.04/0.9= N4,722,317.82222

Therefore y (GDA) which is your Gross div amount= N4,722,317.82222.

But V x N2.80= y (GDA)
So V= N4,722,317.82222/2.80= 1,686,542 unit approximately.
...while you may have bought some of your equity stake in GT post ex-dividend, this gives us a clue of your holding.

1,686,542 unit of GTBANK.
...now that's quite a lot!

I dare say that you have built for yourself a great source of passive income... especially if you also hold similar stakes in other 1st tier banking names and/or blue-chip companies.

Do enjoy your dividend but try not to get intoxicated.

Kudos bro!

onegentleguy:


Mr TRANSCORP already opening with a bid size that's almost 2x that from yesterday's close.
Indeed there was a reason for the huge but often "opaque" vol in TRANSCORP in recent weeks.
There's also a reason the vol movement has now followed a less "aggressive trading pattern" even with maximum price rise.
...Implying less availability.

Carefully observe the coys trade book.

Something is going on!

Again, NOT to be inferred as any sought of investment advice.

Meanwhile, Mr TRANSCORP is still doing the work...
Another maximum gain, another huge unfilled vol of over 120M... with a few snipers here and there.

Still playing out that part in italics.

Let's see where it heads to from here.

Again, NOT an investment advice. ...the need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

It is well.

onegentleguy:


Got us some more INTEBREW @ the day low of N4.3 & 4.35 today.
...the 2nd of our 5-batch structured entry trade set-up, but not enough to complete the target. (we need to accumulate a bit more)
So technically, we still have 4 more batch to go.

Like the last time, only problem is the relatively low vol available for exchange at our target peg.
Not much difference in AEP btw our 1st & 2nd batch... so it appears some folks are afraid to sell.

We wait again at below 10% (or a peg we perceive appropriate looking at the pattern of the coys trade book) tomorrow to load more.
As I said before; we shall continue to load more until...

TA should not come and spoil things for us... price has to drop.
You people should sell this INTERBREW I beg of you. ...it's fundamentally unhealthy.
Pls kindly sell more... and I mean it!

Btw, CHAMS tried to close shop today.

It is well

Got us some more INTERBREW @ the day low of N4.45 today.
...this completes the 2nd of our 5-batch structured entry trade set-up so ideally, we now have 3 MORE BATCHES TO GO!

As always, the challenge has been the relatively low vol available for exchange at our target peg, but we are never gonna give up!
I really don't understand why people are refusing to sell.

Well, tomorrow is another day.
We wait again at below 10% or a peg we perceive appropriate looking at the pattern of the coys trade book.
We shall continue to load until price drops to 0.1k.

We love that man Mr TIME!

It is well.

onegentleguy:
I still like them UPDC, UNILEVER, DS, STERLING BANK, UBA, WAPCO, CHAMS and LIVESTOCK FEEDS!
...I just love them!

But hey! NOT an investment advice.
Due diligence still applies as always.

Selah

onegentleguy:


But then again, that won't stop me from keeping my eyes focused on the prize.

Hint: What if we look at the intrinsic value of TRANSCORP (ref: Q1, 2023 FP in view) and benchmark it against the AvP price of Mr TE... then peg a 50% MoS to that estimate and place it side by side with the coys present TA stance.

Wouldn't be a bad idea checking in with that guide you know!
We need to know when to reenter. Having a good trade set-up should help.

It is well

Again, congratulations one small to all those who followed the guide above.
But hey! Remember to stay focused folks!

TRANSCORP it is for now though.

I just can not come and go and kill myself for nothing.

CAVEAT: NOT an investment advice. Due diligence still applies as always.

Regards

onegentleguy:


Mr TRANSCORP already opening with a bid size that's almost 2x that from yesterday's close.
Indeed there was a reason for the huge but often "opaque" vol in TRANSCORP in recent weeks.
There's also a reason the vol movement has now followed a less "aggressive trading pattern" even with maximum price rise.
...Implying less availability.

Carefully observe the coys trade book.

Something is going on!

Again, NOT to be inferred as any sought of investment advice.

@TRANSCORP opens on full bid again.
...trying to replicate a similar pattern from last time. (see post above).

Near 100M unit in total bid size with zero offers at present.

It is well

"We all know the importance of power in Nigeria. We all experience the consequences of power deficit – the implications for our people, our businesses, our schools, hospitals, and institutions – our national destiny.

Therefore, I am so proud that today we convened key stakeholders, including the Nigerian Vice President @ProfOsinbajo, at the commissioning of Afam III Fast Power Plant; a 240MW installed capacity plant comprising Eight trailer-mounted mobile gas turbines of 30MW each.

@TranscorpGroup is a key player in the power sector. We recognise that power is the single most critical factor to lifting our people out of poverty and enabling job creation.

The journey has not always been easy – but we have delivered: capacity recovery, plant investment, infrastructure improvement, excellent community relationship and a transformed and motivated workforce.

Since its inception in 2006, @TranscorpGroup has led the way in demonstrating the success of successive privatisation programmes. We are fulfilling our promises to the Government and demonstrating Transcorp’s purpose of “Improving Lives and Transforming Africa”
#Africapitalism the #TOEWay

~Tony Elumelu (Chairman BOD @TranscorpGroup)

Zagee:
Transcorp 🤝 Abuja disco

onegentleguy:
Finally, as a growth and/or value investor, I will seek to align with STERLING BANK, UPDC and REDSTAR EXPRESS @ current price levels.
...of course, having the necessary trade set-up.

Again, NOT to be inferred as any sought of recommendation. Due diligence still applies as always.

Selah

onegentleguy:


No 3, like 2 is a great growth and value stock to align with.
Look well!

Just ensure to have a good trade set-up.
As I told some fellows then; REDSTAR EXPRESS @ N2.4 and below was a great entry price given how the potential MoS from accrued value was @ premium to the combination of inherent risk and market peg.

Regards

Recall the posts above.
Some folks were doubting the inclusion of REDSTAR EXPRESS @ N2.20 then.
Now N2.90 and still early. Will remind them when it hits N4-5.

STERLING BANK has since left from the N1.4+ zone at the time. ...again, still early!
But that other "U" name is yet to...
Mr TIME will sooner or later do justice to it!

Again, NOT to an investment advice.
Pls always do well to follow your instinct.

Enough said!

@dapix you've got it!

A good example of putting in the work. Now go further to permute from amongst the best pick therein.
We already highlighted them in time past.
"They sure will develop plenty of wings to fly!"

...it pays!

CAVEAT: NOT an investment advice. Due diligence still applies as always.

Regards

onegentleguy:
Meanwhile, a certain specie (sector) has been developing plenty of wings. (volume)
Soon, the constituents/birds (coys) in that family might begin to FLY!

Just wait on Mr TIME!

#oneofthemsectorwinners
#uncoveringpotentialvalue

Mfunkynation:

Please don't charm me with your short and grammatical epistle

A close observation and you can tell of "that specie where some of its constituents have been developing wings." (momentum/vol build-up in view)

Still can't decipher? Help yourself. Surf from past post.
It drives zeal and aids discernment when we don't always expect to be spoon fed in everything. Put in the work sometimes.
...just dishing out an honest piece of advice.

It is well

Mfunkynation:

please speak in plain language for us to understand

I think i've exhaustively talked about the said sector in time past... including but limited to an explicit highlight of the few coys with often unignorable, sometimes even significant value accretive potential.

Pls kindly refer to some of my past post should you require further guidance.

Regards

Mpeace:
The owners of the company have been buying since the fall started. What I see on offer might not be enough for them. I think they will soon send it on full offer very soon. TE wants to acquire enough shares to prevent any ote$ like threat in future. Access is doing same with wigwe

You've got it! 🎯
But there's probably more.

#thatdiamondintherough
#thechase

Meanwhile, a certain specie (sector) has been developing plenty of wings. (volume)
Soon, the constituents/birds (coys) in that family might begin to FLY!

Just wait on Mr TIME!

#oneofthemsectorwinners
#uncoveringpotentialvalue

Again, UBA and STERLING BANK are both a STEAL @ current mkt price!
They will reprise accordingly.
...it's just a matter of time. Perhaps, not long a time!

I love that man, Mr TIME!

Enough said.

onegentleguy:


@mendes911 replied to my post. God is great!
...just kidding bro!

Honestly, I have my doubts too.
But then again, that won't stop me from keeping my eyes focused on the prize.

Hint: What if we look at the intrinsic value of TRANSCORP (ref: Q1, 2023 FP in view) and benchmark it against the AvP price of Mr TE... then peg a 50% MoS to that estimate and place it side by side with the coys present TA stance.

Wouldn't be a bad idea checking in with that guide you know!
We need to know when to reenter. Having a good trade set-up should help.

It is well

Congratulations to those who followed the guide above. (that part in italics)
N1.8 and below was a great pick it seems.

But hey! remember "the parable of the man with a long spoon and the de*il."

TRANSCORP it is for now though.
I can not come and go and kill myself for nothing.

CAVEAT: NOT to be inferred as any sought of recommendation. Due diligence still applies as always.

#weridewithit
#unlockingvalue

onegentleguy:
The FO/TE script on TRANSCORP is perhaps becoming a bit more clearer now.
Something is playing out from behind closed doors. I think some persons might be up to something.

Earlier today, the FG gave a pass to the conglomerate as the 1st GENCO to meet all requisite consensus guidance after TRANSCORP surpassed the 5 year BPE target of 670MW as set out in the privatization agreement of 2013.

Put differently, TRANSCORP has just been duly recognized as the first privatized power GENCO to be released from post privatization monitoring following its acquisition of the Ugheli power (UPL) from the FG in 2013.
At the time, the Ugheli plant had a generating capacity of 160MW, but which has since been increased by approx 325% to 680MW.

At present, UPL is a 972MW power plant... add that to the 966MW plant of Afam power & Afam three fast power in Rivers State and you have a combined total power generating capacity of 1,938MW by TRANSCORP POWER.
By implication, the energy conglomerate currently contributes near 20% to the National Grid... by far the highest at present.

There is VALUE to be tapped from that coy!
Whatever happens at the tribunal and whoever eventually becomes the president of the FRN, I expect to see a lot of positive in the power (and energy) sector.
Might not be a bad idea to follow the money!

Fundamentally, the coy is relatively healthy with the combination of current valuation and projected risk premium showing an appreciably wide deviation from CMP.
An immensely great mid to long term play.

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.
Pls do well to follow your instinct.

So TRANSCORP has now gone back on full bid.
The unraveling of a diamond in the rough continues.

It is well

onegentleguy:


But then again, that won't stop me from keeping my eyes focused on the prize.

Hint: What if we look at the intrinsic value of TRANSCORP (ref: Q1, 2023 FP in view) and benchmark it against the AvP price of Mr TE... then peg a 50% MoS to that estimate and place it side by side with the coys present TA stance.

Wouldn't be a bad idea checking in with that guide you know!
We need to know when to reenter. Having a good trade set-up should help.

It is well

I can not come and go kill myself for nothing.

Rating: BUY/OUTPERFORM (ref: CMP in view)

#wearepreparedtomovewithit
#thatquestforvalue