The FO/TE script on TRANSCORP is perhaps becoming a bit more clearer now.
Something is playing out from behind closed doors. I think some persons might be up to something.

Earlier today, the FG gave a pass to the conglomerate as the 1st GENCO to meet all requisite consensus guidance after TRANSCORP surpassed the 5 year BPE target of 670MW as set out in the privatization agreement of 2013.

Put differently, TRANSCORP has just been duly recognized as the first privatized power GENCO to be released from post privatization monitoring following its acquisition of the Ugheli power (UPL) from the FG in 2013.
At the time, the Ugheli plant had a generating capacity of 160MW, but which has since been increased by approx 325% to 680MW.

At present, UPL is a 972MW power plant... add that to the 966MW plant of Afam power & Afam three fast power in Rivers State and you have a combined total power generating capacity of 1,938MW by TRANSCORP POWER.
By implication, the energy conglomerate currently contributes near 20% to the National Grid... by far the highest at present.

There is VALUE to be tapped from that coy!
Whatever happens at the tribunal and whoever eventually becomes the president of the FRN, I expect to see a lot of positive in the power (and energy) sector.
Might not be a bad idea to follow the money!

Fundamentally, the coy is relatively healthy with the combination of current valuation and projected risk premium showing an appreciably wide deviation from CMP.
An immensely great mid to long term play.

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.
Pls do well to follow your instinct.

With this, there's a near 1 probability that petrol subsidy will be removed either in June, 2023 or a few months down the line.
Perhaps, the pump price of fuel could hover above N500/Ltr then.
Surely, there will be winners and losers from this.
A few sectors on my mind!

It is well

Some folks will exit CHAMS but later wish they never did!

N.B: NOT an investment advice.

#lamentations

It is well.

onegentleguy:


I believe you use Morgancapital.

Just login to your A/c, go to Menu and click on NEWS. (the last option under Market)
You can always surf around all the news for any given month/period but to see the latest news, click on the small drop-down arrow under the current month.
You get highlights of info/news for the day at the extreme right under DETAILS.

The news for the said cross deal is right there.

Hope this helps.
Regards

BabsO2:


Where can one monitor this off market trade information ?

Possible the deal was real as that's a high volume. Many doing such high trades - that is the buyer and the seller - could have various motivations. Such deals are not impossible.

Refer to the post/guide above if you use Morgancapital Securities.

I really do not know if other firms have that feature in their user interface. ...but there's also a possibility they have it. You just need to find out.

Regards

Marketapprentic:


Oga mi, you just avoided my request for assistance. I ASKED THAT YOU LET ME KNOW WHAT IS YOUR FAIR PRICE FOR TRANSCORP BASED ON THE JUST RELEASED Q1 RESULT. So that I know what I am doing before I make a mistake. Thanks

N2.71 based on Q1, 2023
...that's a very conservative estimate after discounting for what is clearly an appreciable risk premium.... otherwise, FVE would've been N3.05

I prefer to work with the N2.71 estimate though.

Regards

onegentleguy:


@mendes911 replied to my post. God is great!
...just kidding bro!

Honestly, I have my doubts too.
But then again, that won't stop me from keeping my eyes focused on the prize.

Hint: What if we look at the intrinsic value of TRANSCORP (ref: Q1, 2023 FP in view) and benchmark it against the AvP price of Mr TE... then peg a 50% MoS to that estimate and place it side by side with the coys present TA stance.

Wouldn't be a bad idea checking in with that guide you know!
We need to know when to reenter. Having a good trade set-up should help.

It is well

They have cleared the near 250M unit of TRANSCORP on offer.
Some VIPs dey read our post here.

God is watching you people.
Let's hope that the price will come down a bit more.
It is well

Lion123:
This Transcorp still dey do me like film trick sha. This time last week, you couldn't even find the stock to buy. It was on full bid. I was even begging my broker to abeg epp me find some units. Look at it today.

Film trick ke! ...your very funny.
Keep your eyes on the prize bro!

It is well

mendes911:


Do you still truly believe this off market trade details? Why would this BUYER pay N3.12 for units that were readily available at a discounted price on the floor? Does it add up? That's why I said it's never what it seems with these cowboys!

@mendes911 replied to my post. God is great!
...just kidding bro!

Honestly, I have my doubts too.
But then again, that won't stop me from keeping my eyes focused on the prize.

Hint: What if we look at the intrinsic value of TRANSCORP (ref: Q1, 2023 FP in view) and benchmark it against the AvP price of Mr TE... then peg a 50% MoS to that estimate and place it side by side with the coys present TA stance.

Wouldn't be a bad idea checking in with that guide you know!
We need to know when to reenter. Having a good trade set-up should help.

It is well

currentprice:


is the Chams u have identified thru ur real-Itrade TA

though am not buying but buyer will make good money, not strong enough to my taste as am still searching for my own taste for the year

Ok.... you don dey see the potential in CHAMS now.
Some of us saw it when it was trading @ 20k. (VPDs in view)
We could've even bought more from those who wanted to dispose of their holding at below 20k, just that we never wanted to take advantage of them.

When the time is right, a lot will become clearer to many folks.

Enough said!

currentprice:


yes sir

Am serious Bro!
...it will help aide your knowledge in FA.
But that's if you so desire. ... everything is up to you.

Recall you didn't see value in STERLING BANK @ N1.4+. ...that's probably because you accessed it using only the traditional way of valuing DMBs.
That coy will likely 2x in price in the mid term.

I know that in the course of time you will come back to tell folks about the potential in some of the coys we've highlighted in recent time.
But then the likes of NTERBREW will be trading for 2-3x it's CMP.

You also wouldn't have seen any value in NAHCO @ N3+ and DS @ N11+. ...those where the prices we paid for them.
For the former, you saw how valuable it was after price rose by 2x, and for the latter, only recently.

Not taking anything away from you though. You are doing well. Your pick on VITAFOAM was spot on at the time.

Again; fundamental analysis has gone beyond the traditional ways of making permutations when it comes to digging for VALUE!

Do take care

onegentleguy:


Most folks are always in a hurry to make bold assertions from a coys SPL.
Again, look beyond the SPL and take a deep dive into the SCF and BS.

Only if you saw the massive/triple digit growth accross key VPD including but not limited to the coys NCP, FCFE, CCC, CGPR, FCF and JPBG
with the 1st 2 determinant printing a 107% and 297% positive line.
For a company operating in a broadly capital intensive sector, TRANSCORP managed to achieve all this with just 4% increase in NDP from lower EFIR (debt stance) despite the jump in capital allocation... yet even lower CBR.

Hear this bro;
TRANSCORP did well at delivering value!

The days of <N1 TRANSCORP may we'll be behind us!
Perhaps there's something Sir Tony and FO need to tell us.

It is well

currentprice:


most got trap on transcorp today because of some of the daily post about off market trade today bla bla bla in 100 of millions deals during the saga despite the poor Q1. 100 of millions deal posted here without reminding member of the not good Q1, pple got carried away missed the opportunity to sell at good price.

@ currentprice, TRANSCORP did appreciably well at delivering value in their Q1, 2023. (refer to post above)
I'll advise you to go and study their report again... but this time, do more dig on the Nos.


As i've always told you; fundamental analysis has gone beyond the traditional ways of making permutations when it comes to digging for VALUE.

That said, what played out in TRANSCORP is beyond the matter of fundamentals.
You should know better than blame anyone for anything my dear.
Any Jack will agree that the FO/TE saga helped aide the pacy price rise.

It's price will adjust accordingly and then it will present another opportunity.
Keep your eyes on the prize!

Regards

RabbiDoracle:


Yeah. Was on vacation and returned. We can chat on my mobile whenever you are less busy.

I don't know what it is, but it looks big and could drive NGX very low(maybe Brent trading at $30s) . Very very low. All EMs will join the world as it sells off.

Osu imi, Osu anya.

Welcome back from vacation Bro!

Hope you got stuffs for the boys?
Dem still dey owe us some months for our small minimum wage oo!

Will do well to get in touch on WhatsApp as soon as I can.
Regards

onegentleguy:


Some persons will leave and maybe wish they can reenter.
People will exit the door... but more people will enter/come in!

Perhaps, there's an anaconda-money-bag snipping on all offers.
Maybe Mr TRANSCORP might visit that N3 arena or somewhere near it. ...just maybe!

CAVEAT: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of investment advice.

It is well

Agbalowomeri:

See who is talking
I have never seen SELL in your dictionary
It's always BUY BUY BUY

Not with certain coys naw.
Oftentimes there are stocks we place on different "shelves". (near/short term, mid and long)
TRANSCORP had its place well defined, especially with the FO/TE saga.

Another opportunity will surface.

Btw, so you didn't when we advised for a sell/exit in the likes of AIRTELAFRI, BUACEMENT, NEIMETH @ N3+, RTBRISCOA, GUINNESS (@ the high of near N100), UACN @ N13-14 etc.
I know you won't see that one.

It is well

ositadima1:


The current annual EPS is 70 kobo, could it be audio earnings?

Don't think he was referring to the coys EPS.
@ Rabbi is forecasting that STERLING BANK will trade for 35k in the course of time.

Now that would be truly miraculous!

Regards

RabbiDoracle:


It is a 35 kobo stock las las.

Say what? STERLING BANK for 35k?
Bro na you dey type this thing... or could it be that your A/c has been compromised.

Well, we hope it comes to fulfilment.

What's up Bro? ...it's been a while.
Regards

Agbalowomeri:


He doesn't sell his shares though
He is an investor, not a trader like you

I think he's kidding. I mean, how could he not have sold?

TRANSCORP will present another opportunity though.

It is well

Frangel:
It was not a mistake. Was the same last year. It's distributed from profits made when they enjoyed pioneer status from the FG. That is a period the government grants tax holidays to qualifying companies that apply. It's for a given period, as an incentive or for protection. Profits made during the period are not subject to tax.

PS: In the announcement, it's stated to be payable from the Pioneer Reserve.

You are very correct!

But folks should bear in mind that the coys tax holiday may have ended in the last financial year. (ref: 2022 FYE)
So unless there's an extension by the authorities, expect their interim and FY, 2023 dividend to be taxed accordingly.

Now that part in italics will put slight pressure on WAPCO's expense line, but my extensive analysis shows that it could not strain overall earnings delivery neither will it pose any drawback to current growth trajectory. (FY, 2023 projection in view)

WAPCO is still very much undervalued at CMP.
Rating retained at; BUY/OUTPERFORM.

CAVEAT: NOT an investment advice. ...due diligence still applies as always.

Regards

onegentleguy:


Welcome to the NGX !!
A case of a man's wish, the devil and a long spoon.

Congratulations to those who sold at N3 and above!
Let's hope another round of opportunity will surface in no time.
It is well

Yet another OFF MARKET deal in TRANSCORP.

A total of 131,897,297 units of TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATION PLC were done as OFF MARKET trade today May 2, 2023 at N3.12 in one deal.

The transaction was a negotiated deal with UNITED CAPITAL SECURITIES LIMITED as BUYER and APT SECURITIES & FUNDS LTD as SELLER.



It is well

onegentleguy:
So we added to our bag of INTERNATIONAL BREWERIES today.
...it's the 1st of a 5-batch structured entry trade set-up, so we've still got 4 more to go!

Only challenge is the tiny traded volume so far.
It appears some "handlers" have been engineering some crossing on the coys buy/sell trade book to suite ...
But hey, we love it!
I can never turn a blind eye to an opportunity to acquire a coy (like this) for a price equivalent to getting it for gratis... because some persons could not see the VALUE in it.
...for doing that would be tantamount to ignoring WAPCO @ N9, NEIMETH @ 38k, WEMA BANK @ 56k, UACN @ N4.5, PZ @ N4, NAHCO @ N3+, DS @ N11+, GUINNESS @ N15, UNILEVER @ N10+, TRANSCORP @ <90k, CHAMS @ 20k etc... when in a similar fashion, some folks could not infer any value in them and quite possibly avoided them like a plaque.

We hope to acquire more afolabi unit of INTERBREW as price drops.
TA shouldn't come and halt things for us pls. It has to drop oo!
We shall keep buying and where necessary, adjust our entry trade set-up to accommodate much more unit until price drops to maybe 20k.

And then we would allow Mr TIME to take care of matters.
It is well.

Got us some more INTEBREW @ the day low of N4.3 & 4.35 today.
...the 2nd of our 5-batch structured entry trade set-up, but not enough to complete the target. (we need to accumulate a bit more)
So technically, we still have 4 more batch to go.

Like the last time, only problem is the relatively low vol available for exchange at our target peg.
Not much difference in AEP btw our 1st & 2nd batch... so it appears some folks are afraid to sell.

We wait again at below 10% (or a peg we perceive appropriate looking at the pattern of the coys trade book) tomorrow to load more.
As I said before; we shall continue to load more until...

TA should not come and spoil things for us... price has to drop.
You people should sell this INTERBREW I beg of you. ...it's fundamentally unhealthy.
Pls kindly sell more... and I mean it!

Btw, CHAMS tried to close shop today.

It is well

onegentleguy:
There has been a reoccurance of mergers/aquisation or takeover/buyout and follow-up delisting of some quoted companies on the NSE bourse.

Over the yrs, the likes of NBC, BAGCO, IHS, CAPPA & D'ALBERTO, OASIS INSURANCE, CRUSADER INSURANCE, 7-UP, ASHAKA CEMENT, AVON CROWN CAPS, DIAMOND BANK, NEWREST ASL, DANGOTE FLOUR, CONTINENTAL RE, 1ST ALUMINIUM and most recently AG LEVENTIS to mention just a few, have either undergone a merger, aquisation or takeover/buyout. ...with the last 6 all brokered in less than a year !!
However, I think we might see a few more in the not-so-distant future.

Given the current position of their financial print(balance sheet position in view) in relation to their present equity prices, the following coys could be future candidates for a merger, aquisation or take over/buy out:

NEIMETH PHARMACEUTICALS, CHAMS, FO, GLAXOSMITHKLINE NIG, COURTVILLE, TRANEX(trans-nationwide express), UNIONDAC, PZ and BERGER PAINTS PLC.

Why?

1st off, is to ascertain if there are doubts surrounding the survival of these companies, so one doesn't lose their money taking(early) positions in them. And next, is to look in on their current earnings capacity, then gauge its relative sustainability over time.

On that line, keeping a tag on their OHLSONS O-SCORE(a key financial tool used to forecast if a company could go bankrupt), I see them remaining as a going concern. ...which makes them attractive candidates for 'external forces'(investors) who could bid to take them on at a cheap and turn them around.

...and using the EPP (earnings persistence approach: a valuation technique used to predict how often the earnings return of a coy will likely continue to reoccur over time after raking-off risk), I see a higher probability that any take over/buy out (should they occur) will be priced @ great premiums to their current market prices.
With some, at potential premiums of near 105% ROI !!

I particularly like the 1st 5.

On a side note, a few coys in the financial services sector, particularly the INSURANCE segment 'could also be up for grabs'... so watch that space !!

CAVEAT: This piece is only intended to look at quoted coys with chances of a merger, aquisation or takeover/buy out.
...it is NO licence to any sought of recommendation !!

My advise: Always do well to follow ur instinct.

Still recall the post above?

With the exception of FO, virtually all 8 coys on the list was trading at a fine/great discount from their current mkt prices at the time. (i.e Neimeth @ 38-41k, PZ @ N4+, Courtville @ 20k, Chams @ 20k, BERGER PAINTS @ N5+)
Look at their prices today. The likes of NEIMETH delivered over 600% ROI before pullback, PZ has already returned over 200%, some, btw 2-3x while a few others near 2x.
A few more will deliver.
We are monitoring them.

GSK is the only coy I'd say has traded flat since then.

As I said in some of my follow up post, FO is the only coy I wouldn't buy and hold following that analysis. (given the mkt price then)
There were a few things I didn't like in their report. (highlighted them here then)

But as expected, many folks attached less importance to the post. Perhaps they didn't see any potential value in those names then.

Well, 3 of the coys (UNIONDAC, CORTVILLE and FO) have already come to fulfilment.
Who knows, maybe another 2-3 from that list will follow in the short to mid-term.

Our duty is to align early, so we can tap from any and all potential return when the time is right.

Selah

onegentleguy:
Though it may not deliver a similar ROI margin, CHAMS can well be the next COURTVILLE.
I look at the coys last 3 FP, and I see VALUE.
Reward is well ahead of the combination of risk and current mkt price (even @ >>10% premium to it)

...already highlighted this before now.
There are quite some positive to make out from the coys financial print.

CAVEAT: Due diligence still applies as always.

Selah

The above post was put out when CHAMS was trading @ 20k, but many didn't see any value in it.
Someone even inferred that the coy was not worthy of any consideration... while a few others were even proposing to dispose of their holding @ less than 20k.

Now everyone is talking about CHAMS.
I've received a handful of mails and messages from folks on the very same coy.

Wonder why they didn't align/take position before now.
Apparently, they couldn't see the good in the (sometimes seemingly) bad financial print from the company at the time.
A case in point was the coys H1, 2022 and YE, 2022 report. I laugh when some persons tagged them a drawback to growth.

They'll probably keep waiting until the stock gains another 40-65% above current price level, then they'll rush in!

That's also how some folks will wait until INTERBREW pushes up by 2-3x in price. Maybe they'll begin to see the value in it then.
Over time, some fellows will like INTERBREW @ N15 and above and even begin to praise it.
Then we shall sell to them and look for the next coy "they'll probably hate".

Some fellows probably don't know that when it comes to digging for VALUE accrued coys, fundamental analysis has gone beyond the traditional ways of making permutations.

Well, that man Mr TIME, has a way of setting matters straight and putting them in their right perspective.

It is well

OBAGADAFFI:

...that capitalist mentality.

It is well

https://twitter.com/RealOlaudah/status/1651959369884377088

What transpired.
...it's alright!

onegentleguy:


Relax my dear. ...there's absolutely no cause for alarm.
What if I tell you that GT did slightly better than ZENITH on more VPD in view of their YE, 2022 Nos?
What if I tell you that GT currently "carry a bit more value with it" than ZENITH? (MoS/RRM from FVE)

Both coys are ok, but I have a slight preference for one ahead of the other.

Again, PAT does not always tell the whole story.
Look beyond the SPL and consider deeply their SCF and BS position.

I currently do not hold any of the 2 at the moment but if I were to consider an entry, it would be a 60-40% fund allocation (portfolio weighting in view) in favor of GTB. (ahead of ZENITH)
...of course, using an appropriate trade set-up.

As with ZENITH, the match in div pay from previous year (for GT) might be management's deliberate strategy to calm any expected sell off that may have otherwise built-in from the drop in NPM.
Could also be a way of telling us that the banks growth trajectory could be sustained in 2023.
(Q1, 2023 Nos will give us a clue though)

No thanks to the many structural deficiencies in the system, these banks appear to have built themselves in a manner that gives them the needed shock absorber to take in these sought of loses. (impairments in view)

On the share price, I think that dividend hunters (div growth investors) might want to hold... perhaps until post ex-dividend.
I expect a drop in price thereafter.
Again, I think Q1 and possibly H1, 2023 Nos will to a large extent determine the share price movement.

We'll see how the market reacts to this.

As expected, GT delivered real good!
If they maintain this tempo to H1, 2023 then...

Elsewhere, WEMA doing its thing.
In the INSURANCE space, REGAL INS and SUNU did so well.
I just wonder why...
Anyway, I trust that Mr Time will do its thing in no distant time.

It is well.

beejay1:
My bros, thanks for the analysis. So if you look at just Q2 2023 only and compare with Q2 2022, we have a 31% drop. Pls help verify for my learning.
For Half year 2023, yes we have a 13% drop in EPS (compared to half year 2022)

True.

But where there is a drawback in earnings projection, the combined trailing period is used to measure or guage growth trajectory in earnings delivery and not an isolated period.
Then again, there are also other key VPDs that one needs to investigate to ascertain if the isolated drawback could possibly create a deviation in growth trajectory.
I can say that this isn't the case with VITAFOAM at present.
Do a broad EPA analysis and you'll see why.

That part in italics is why a coy can experience a material drop in earnings within a quarter and still deliver an appreciable growth in earnings within a given FY.
The key is to question why. ...what occasioned the drop?... what lead to what?
Question everything bro!

With that report, if the price of VITAFOAM should ever drop, then it can only create an even more beautiful opportunity.

It is well

onegentleguy:
So we added to our bag of INTERNATIONAL BREWERIES today.
...it's the 1st of a 5-batch structured entry trade set-up, so we've still got 4 more to go!

Only challenge is the tiny traded volume so far.
It appears some "handlers" have been engineering some crossing on the coys buy/sell trade book to suite ...
But hey, we love it!
I can never turn a blind eye to an opportunity to acquire a coy (like this) for a price equivalent to getting it for gratis... because some persons could not see the VALUE in it.
...for doing that would be tantamount to ignoring WAPCO @ N9, NEIMETH @ 38k, WEMA BANK @ 56k, UACN @ N4.5, PZ @ N4, NAHCO @ N3+, DS @ N11+, GUINNESS @ N15, UNILEVER @ N10+, TRANSCORP @ <90k, CHAMS @ 20k etc... when in a similar fashion, some folks could not infer any value in them and quite possibly avoided them like a plaque.

We hope to acquire more afolabi unit of INTERBREW as price drops.
TA shouldn't come and halt things for us pls. It has to drop oo!
We shall keep buying and where necessary, adjust our entry trade set-up to accommodate much more unit until price drops to maybe 20k.

And then we would allow Mr TIME to take care of matters.
It is well.

beejay1:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/38397_INTERNATIONAL_BREWERIES_PLC.-_QUARTER_1_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2023.pdf

I cant say this one....pls read for yourself...it is well

Have you taken some time to digest the key lines in the report?
Based on clear cut forecast, everything was totally expected.
For instance, the CBN policy on currency redesign and cash restriction impacted the CCC, JPBG and CGPR of coys in that sector.

I hope you saw the FPs from NB and GUINESS?
A quick glance and I can see that INTERBREW even did better on certain key VPDs that are of interest to me.

Pls sell your holding naw.
To all those looking at this report but who can't see value, PLS, bring out your holding and offload beginning Tuesday.
Pls SELL OFF your stakes, and I mean it!
As I said before; everyone must not be in that coy.

We still have an unfinished business with INTERBREW. (see post above)

Selah

onegentleguy:


Some persons will leave and maybe wish they can reenter.
People will exit the door... but more people will enter/come in!

Perhaps, there's an anaconda-money-bag snipping on all offers.
Maybe Mr TRANSCORP might visit that N3 arena or somewhere near it. ...just maybe!

CAVEAT: NOT to be interpreted as any sought of investment advice.

It is well

purleesh:
https://billionaires.africa/2023/04/28/nigerian-billionaire-femi-otedola-sells-his-transcorp-stake-to-tony-elumelu/

Confirmed?

Welcome to the NGX !!
A case of a man's wish, the devil and a long spoon.

Congratulations to those who sold at N3 and above!
Let's hope another round of opportunity will surface in no time.

It is well

emmanuelewumi:

Does that mean the party is gradually coming to an end

Growth trajectory still intact!

Selah

beejay1:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/38388_VITAFOAM_NIG_PLC.-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_APRIL_2023.pdf

31% decrease in 2023 Q2 EPS (compared to 2022 Q2 EPS)

Am guessing this could be a typo error or something.
It's actually an approx 13% drop in EPS and not 31%.
Compare the coys H1/6 months end to Mar 31, 2023 to its corresponding period in 2022.

The slight drop in EPS was expected in view of the coys inorganic growth and expansionary plan.
The concern in this instance should be on how efficient the coy was at fund/cash flow utilization. ...and on that I'd score them a 7 on a scale of 1-10.

I've always said that we should endeavor to look beyond a coys SCF and take a deeper dive into their SCF and BS.
A company's SCF tells the least 'story" as it relates to ACTUAL/TRUE performance.

VITAFOAM is still a buy at CMP.

CAVEAT: NOT an investment advice.

pluto09:


I have been buying DS since last year after they published their q2 result though I was disappointment with q3 so I am not looking for endorsement. One of the attractions then was the low price of raw sugar.
I looked at price of sugar in the international market yesterday and I was not too comfortable with what I saw hence my calling on oracle to say something about the chart on sugar . Between the time I checked last year and yesterday, price of raw sugar has gone up by about 50%.
Going by my experience over the years with DS, an increase in the international price of sugar always affect the company performance as there will be a time lag for them to pass the increments to the consumers.
When one decides to have a substantial part of his portfolio in a particular company, I believe one should be well informed about the company and everything that can affect its performance going forward.

True.

But ask yourself; what has the company done to cushion the impact of input cost (imported raw material cost inclusive) btw then and now?

Key observation;

• Improved raw material inventory management...
There has been a deliberate attempt to reduce that line of cost via stocking. (overstocking of certain class of material)... perhaps putting to good use the 80-20 rule in inv magt.
The coys over reliance on imported sugar (ref: 80% as at Q1, 2021) necessitated a rejig in their raw material collection strategy to create a balance in the various forms of inventory.
Observe the ∆ inventory position in that time.

• Mapped out strategic plan to beef up backward integration...
This of course will support the highlight above and ensure less reliance/passthrough impact from input cost.

• FX Management...
The coys cash position has enabled it achieve a better gearing btw then and now... hence healthy cash position and less EFP.
The implication will be a gradual but steady drop in finance cost relative to debt... hence better earnings delivery in the course of time.

I also highlighted a few other things in that article.
Truth is; DS is in a much better position now compared to then.

It is well

Agbalowomeri:


Lol Wetin Otedola dey show Elumelu na UBA shareholders go suffer am. Make Una prepare for exceptional items

I like your reverse thinking, but don't let UBA leave you behind oo!
...I don talk my own.

@my56 abeg help bring that my remote. (check the battery).

It is well

Zagee:


Can we subscribe to Sentimental analysis on UBA ?

Talk to Agba. ...who knows! maybe he can help with the gut or sentiment analysis part.

Based on fundamentals though, UBA should have no business trading below N19.37 (last FP in view)
But then again, it's not an investment advice.

I can not come and kill myself for nothing.
Let me just enjoy what's left of my small minimum wage for now.

It is well