A cursory dig on the technicals of DANGOTE SUGAR;

N80 now appears to be a short-term psychological RKL while the green colored moving average holds as a strong support zone.
Should we see a breakout (and close) above that RKL on the WTF, then price action will likely make a HH. (simple chart representation below)

This asset is "fueling up" for a great ride.

Upside potential maintains a near 1 probability!

#ds&nasconpotential

Agbalowomeri:
OGG the summary is:

Go home

You will be there smiling until you miss out on some select opportunities that the mkt presents.

Look well!

....or the duo of inflation and currency devaluation will infest and eat into that your cash bullion van.

It is well

BullBearMkt:
Short-Term Market Outlook Turning Bearish With NSE ASI Double Top
Market All-Share Index is showing a short-term possible double top. A break of the neckline on high volume will possibly drag the index to its mean. This is a bearish outlook; however, the overall market outlook, both medium- and long-term, remain bullish

NB: Time to cautiously buy stocks

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

I like that you're often realistic and factual in your view/input.
You are right about the possible short term bearish outlook.
The mkt made a LL and followed it up with a LH (< previous high) culminating in the double-top formation.
But it's still unconfirmed at this point. (see the simple chart impression below)

The dotted line below the lower trend channel can be considered an "alternative neckline", while the green line doubles as the neckline and psychological key SL.

Lots to say but here's my postulation;

A bounce at the alternative neckline but which reproduces a triple top formation could herald a stronger short term bearish reversal.
There's a 66.7% possibility that price action may break below the alternative neckline and a 33.3% prob of achieving the opposite.
With the former, I expect a bounce at the base of that rectangle/neckline unless the large caps/blue-chips lead the fall.

The trend in certain sectorial index is given a hint.

A reversal in short term trend will only likely be confirmed if and when PV action (must be supported by vol) drops below that neckline and key SL, bounces in-between that green and purple line but turns the green line into a "bullet proof fence".
...put differently, when psychological SL transitions into a psychological RL.

Below 81, 414 is actually when I will be concerned about the mkt. (though that again will depend on the assets that one holds)
Until then, there's absolutely nothing to fret about!

Some select asset names will inversely correlate the index movement (outperform the market within the period in focus), while others will present another great entry opportunity for value investors.
Those who subscribed to my outline and investment guide--Series 2 know what they ought to do.

It is well

Streetinvestor2:
Bro just came back home to rest From church service to hospital to see a friends daughter on admission.

I was expecting you to say something on gsk as per the payment and WHT.I remember gsk was one of your strong recommendation in the past.i guess it was about that time I bought it after DD.Whr you expecting the 10% deduction from the money..And what do you think on IB results. It is one of your call out that current price said NO again to because of FA.Do you still see light at the end

This could be longer, but here's an honest brief;

@ Frangel was right (I read your engagements with him), but the truth is that there was more to the issues that surrounded GSK. (including but not limited to why they had to wind up their business operation)

Yes it's true that the winding up process (unlike that for a buy-out) necessitated the 10% WHT deduction.
It's important to understand the terms "winding up" and "buy-out" of a business entity.
They both have a few similarities and differences.
The KEY similarity is that in both processes, there's a distribution of proceeds to eligible creditors and shareholders post settlement of all pending/outstanding obligations.

With a winding up exercise though, assets are SOLD OUT and the company's affairs in the target country of operation is brought to a CLOSE.
...it is for this singular reason that a winding up exercise will often precede a dissolution. (a legal term for terminating the company's existence within/in that country)
Contrarily, in a buyout, assets are BOUGHT OVER (usually by the majority/core or PE investor) but the company's affairs remains OPEN and operational in that country.

Between the 2 process, the latter (buy-out) when pursued with equity and fairness, tends to be a bit more favourable/rewarding to minority shareholders for the singular reason that the former (winding up) will more often than not, put the company in an often distressing position where assets could be SOLD for less their true value, so she can immediately settle stakeholders and leave.

Yet another not-so-good part about a winding up process is how it tends to (oftentimes completely) set aside the carrying-value of intangible assets of the company.
For instance; GSK may have had some great GOODWILL lines (brand worthiness, HC/manpower etc) that would've otherwise accrued as value to shareholders if the company had taken the buy-out route rather than winding up. (intangibles like Goodwill is often factored in when extrapolating the EV of a coy)

Needless to highlight that the former process would of course imply a more prudent and viable business exit option for any forward thinking investor. (FDI in view)

GSK Nigeria found herself in something quite similar. ...they just had to go the winding up and assigned 3rd party distribution model route and rightly so!
Nigeria is a painfully funny place. There are stuffs to say but some things are better left unsaid.

Here's the part that should interest you though.
GSK will sure doll out an additional cash distribution.
I had given an estimate of what could be the plausible figure in some of my previous analysis. (see past post for guidance)

On INTBREW;
Not much to say. A good wine they say...

As I told some folks; many will focus on the SPL and not take cognizance of the recurrent great improvement recorded in the company's SCF and BS position.
Some persons still don't know that a company can record a loss in NOPAT/PAT and still be grossly underpriced.
The key is in the ability to proficiently figure out why there was a loss and how it connects to the holding value/feasible reward in that asset. ...then you can relate your findings to the assets equity price to draw a sound judgement.

There are pros and cons with the expected share capital reduction exercise (ref: reduction in nominal value by a factor of 25x) in between the planned RI.
I know most folks will focus on the cons and fail to efficiently benchmark it against the undisputably much better pros. Am hoping that more persons will sell off their holdings, so price can drop a bit more.
The coys PV action (TA in view) will be a great guide. ...I like the current set-up/structure.
I will strongly advice you never to downplay the efficacy of using technical analysis.
As always; FA is great, but supplementing it with SA and especially TA is even better!

There's an extremely high probability that at least 88% of the things I foresee for that coy (INTBREW) will eventually play out.
...that asset will gift some folks (including you) a lot of money.

Get a trailer load.... HOLD!

CAVEAT: I recently had migraine and the doctor attributed it to too much analysis. This might just be the consequence of his postulation.
NOT to be inferred as any sought of investment advice!

Selah

onegentleguy:

Probable scenarios on TRANSCORP;

1) Certain crop of persons with links to the core investor/majority holder and those with insider information on the outcome of her last BOD meeting may have been mopping up the shares on the floor.
The coys recent technicals (ref: PV action) is suggestive of this fact.
This could be the reason for the high volatility in price of the asset as they tactfully push it down in spasms to engage in staggered but strategic accumulation until they achieve their set out target.

2) Then comes the unbundling of her energy business arm from the group and
listing of TRANSCORP ENERGY as a separate entity.

3) Allotment of an estimated % proportion to all stakeholders of TRANSCORP. (ref: UBA >> UCAP/AFPRUD way)
However, the % equity distribution to qualified minority holders will be very small, most probably a calculated attempt to ensure that TRANSCORP ENERGY's free float on listing, maintains a wide deviation from would-be OS, with NCI and "others" having the lion's share.

4) If truly the intention is to remain a listed entity, the share price will then be proped up (artificial skip) the "geregu way" (as we saw when geregu power was listed) to attract... and fulfill....

5) The core investor/majority holder will then proceed with a PP/RI post listing, to increase the coys OS.
Well of course for himself and/or his cronies by taking up an appreciable proportion of the PP/RI in other to remain in "charge" of affairs in the coy.

6) You may eventually be bought over in future (MTO in view) depending on how items No 4, 5 & 6 play out.

N.B: This is only a plausibility, not a certainty! ...so iit may or may not play out.

Whatever happens though, I continue to think that the current holders of TRANSCORP will benefit from it! Though much of what should accrue as great future benefit might end up been diverted. (if 4, 5 & 6 play out)

Interestingly, TRANSCORP POWER LTD dolled out a total cash dividend of N214 per share to its shareholders in 2022. And yes you heard me right... N214 !!
By the way, that's a near 70% increase from what was declared in the previous calendar yr.

Should I hold on to my TRANSCORP?

A lot depends on ones entry price. If you were among the early birds who keyed in below N1 or @ N1--2+, it might be ok to lock in your capital together with a good proportion of ROI and redirect the funds to other great asset. Then you can hold the balance.
Whatever happens, you should be good!

Many folks will recall I issued a buy recommendation on TRANSCORP, 1st @ N1.14 following several analysis.
I later gave it an outperform rating @ below N2 when many folks had doubts about the assets value accretive potential post release of her Q1, 2022 financial print.

As always, it pays to be among the early birds!

CAVEAT: NOT to be inferred as an investment advice. The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

It is well

🌙🕋🎬♟️🫧

Lot's of pages to read from, but not much time available to do so.
Seeing quite some lovely constructive engagements in the last few pages, though over 86% were centered around 3 coys. (GSK, OANDO and TRANSCORP)
...that man in the middle!

Nice inputs overall.
To all those doing their bit to keep the thread alive, more power to your elbow!

It is well

Streetinvestor2:
From this graph. Thr is likelihood of transcorp touching #20 .Then to what price is likely to pullback .let me see if it will happen when the time comes..

Pls leave TRANSCORP alone, it's a Sunday, take some time out to rest and energize for tomorrow.
...just kidding bro!

For those who already subscribed to the outline and investment guide--Series 2, look at that asset with a TA analysis under the sub-heading; "Something about..." (also see the chart)

Do well to follow the guide and take position! That asset is primed to deliver great return. (ref: upto 81% ROI)

And yes other coys in the outline are also well positioned to reward good gains.
Follow through with the TS judiciously and should you see any asset trade below the TEP as stipulated in the outline, accumulate or proceed on a staggered entry as price drop.

There are at least 11 asset names in the new outline and investment guide-- Series 2.
Do well to abide by the instructions therein and you'll be just fine!

It is well

PIVOTAL NOTICE:

If as an EARLY SUBSCRIBER to my outline/recommendations and investment guide, you"ve already amassed great returns and now looking out for WHERE and HOW to effectively redirect your funds for the plausibility of more capital gains, then the SERIES 2 of my outline and investment guide is your plug!

Yes you can now subscribe for the "outline and guide on key select equity names with high value accretive potential- series 2" to help you continue to maximize your previous gains.
...some folks already placed their order.

Concerned about the recent pullback in the market?
Well, it's ok to be concerned but then again, you can take advantage of certain assets RV/IV to MV disconnection that the mkt presents both from a bottom-up and top-down investment perspective.
A SMART investor will find a way to maneuver his way around the mkt. ...he only needs to equip himself with the right tools.

What you should know;

Like the last outline and investment guide, this series also does all the work for you. All you need do is simply follow the instructions therein (entry/exit setup) and make some decent return.

NOTE: This new series comes with a similar service fee. ...it is NOT a continuation of the 1st. (I have already gifted out 2 bonus guide to subscribers of the last outline)
However, all subscribers of the previous series are automatically eligible for a 20--50% discount though dependent on certain criteria.

Like the last outline/guide, its proficiency and efficacy at delivering result if judiciously followed is not in doubt. Series 2 also serves the purpose of a powerful result orientated handy guide, particularly for early birds.
...it's an outline and investment guide that's worth every penny.

The previous outline and investment guide remains VALID.
Series 2 isn't intended to invalidate it, but to help guide those on a quest to REDIRECT their funds to other value--backed assets after locking in great returns as early subscribers of the last outline.

You can request to place your order now.

On a side note, if you're among those that subscribed for the previous outline in the last ONE WEEK, pls do well to reach out to me.
I just might have something for you! (pls, last one week and not more than that)

Regards

DeRuggedProf:


"Call me Mike"....
He did his best to dismantle the culture of eye service in MTN. Strictly went for competence. Hmmm time really flies. Some bosses became weak as boys started calling everyone by name...

I am beginning to suspect you.
Pls kindly bring me that my remote.

Regards

onegentleguy:

A pivotal line of disclosure...

Over 2 yrs ago (btw Q2-Q3, 2019), We highlighted the worries in the company UNILEVER Nig Plc.
Before that time, I gave an underperform/sell rating given the coys near N30 market price.

Fast forward to Q1, 2020 and things only worsened for the company with inherent risk consistently taken a bite from what should've been due to an investor.
See 2 amongst the last post I put out back then. (Note the lines therein)

Within that period, risk was clearly ahead of the combination of REWARD and price with the continually pressured MoS resulting in the jettisoning of the stock by value investors. ...and unsurprisingly, the coys equity peg underperforming both it's sector and NGX index in the last 2 yrs.

What has changed?

Many of the major risk drivers highlighted then have been dwarfed by the company's present stance. (diminishing effect in view) ...with improvement recorded accross several key revenue and earnings line (at least by a 72% margin as certain triggers from core top-down and bottom-up positive line combines to good effect)

The present UNILEVER...

• Accelerating RM and OIM amidst drive to recover initially lost mkt share.
This is already working for the company!

• Healthier working capital stand on the back of higher ITP (ref: >> ∆ inventory turnover) and better performing receivables.
There's been a 64.9% YoY jump in consumer spend... with Nigerians parting with over N108 Trillion in 2021 alone despite inflationary pressure.
In retrospect, "tough times can't really be that tough" as passthrough impact from cost reflective challenges is minimized by higher comparative prices amidst increased consumer appetite.
A coy like UNILEVER now appears well placed to wither the storm given her broadly inelastic product mix.
Again, the decision of the Nig gov't to reopen the border should by implication, also greatly improve this line.

• Expanded reach in distributorship chain amidst in-company restructuring.
Expect lower CBR (ref: CRP) and higher CCC to JPBM in 2022.

• Back to back improvement (QoQ in view) in AsQ, ROCE, EM, AER, CGPR and AsY following deficits/squeeze in the previous 5 quarters.

• Improved value accretive stand at present compared to most sector peers in view of the current low base effect. (ref: NCPS, EV/EBITDA, JPBM)
...I also highlighted this same line while comparing WAPCO @ N9 and later, INTEBREW @ <N5 to their respective sector peers. (P2P weighting in view)

I see a similar pattern to fellow P2P coy, PZ.
Recall that we also gave a sell/underperform recommendation on PZ @ over N15 sometime in 2019... forecasting that price could drop to N4+.
Well, it did... and we later issued an outperform/buy signal @ that N4+.
PZ is currently trading @ N13+ and could rise even further.

UNILEVER can well follow the same path. ...the probability that its price can rise from current level is now closer to 1 than zero. (aside it's FA, certain KEY technical indicators are beginning to gather momentum)

With UNILEVER, potential REWARD has accelerated by an approx 2.7x multiple ahead of surrounding volatility/risk in view of it's CMP.

Using an appropriate blend of valuation model that assumes a minot growth margin of 0.15x TTM (5% QoQ to YE, 2022) but also benchmarked to risk-discounted levels of 500bps above current surrounding peg, UNILEVER' FVE computes to N29.15
This, by the way, implies a very conservative approach. ...that FVE can expand by well over 46% if a similar growth margin from Q1 is reproduced in Q2, 2022.

Rating now upgraded to; Overweight/Outperform

IT'S TIME TO INVEST IN UNILEVER!
BUY... ACCUMULATE... HOLD!

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

When things began to change!
...was a great time to sweep in on the coy.

#stillahugeupsidepotential
#deservingassetreprising

It is well.

https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/6706#112987619

Past posts highlighting the travails in UNILEVER back in time. (also see reverts and other related post)

https://technologytimes.ng/michael-ikpoki-ex-mtn-nigeria-ceo-appointed-unilever-director/

How time flies!
Was privileged to know Mr. Mike during his tenure as a CEO in MTN Nigeria.
He was at the time, the first Nigerian CEO of MTN Nigeria, after successfully heading the same position (CEO) in MTN Ghana.
...very competent and completely equiped fellow. An undoubted case of having the round peg in a round hole!

Most folks will recall when we 1st gave out a buy and later an outperform rating on UNILEVER @ N10+ and N11.4--12.1 respectively.

Indeed, it is well!

GracefulLau:

Please keep it to yourself. we don't want to know since you are not ready to share.

Am sorry Sir.
I will share when I will. ...I always do!

But the content of the outline and any guide related thereof is strictly for those who subscribed for it.
Many are members here, hence the reason for the post and other previous updates.

Do take care of you.
Regards

https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/7458#127858495

All who subscribed to the outline and immediately followed up with the breakdown explanation and investment guide for the 2 chart as stated in the link above should be smiling by now.

One of the asset is already up by 108% from initial entry peg (and still counting) for those who keyed in early
...the 2nd is currently gathering momentum to deliver a...

It is well

onegentleguy:


But for some inexplicable reason, this response should've been on the same date as your post above.
...didn't quite understand the difficulty with login in.

On JAIZ BANK, only if you knew that the glorified micro-finance bank as you put it, is among the top DMBs currently well placed to reap great returns from the persistently hawkish MP environment.
Little wonder why there was an astronomical rise in NPM (ref: 185%) in their Q3, 2023 financial print, following a near 36,800bps growth from playing in certain class of FII.

Interestingly, the said bank is about the only quoted coy in that sector with a seeming "antibody" that shields her from certain policy restrictions by the regulator/Apex bank in view of her operating model.

Only if you knew that...

Most folks will recall I initially highlighted the value accretive potential in JAIZ BANK @ N1.4 at about the same time I gave a buy rating on STERLING @ N1.7--1.8.
When that bank (JAIZ) begins it's run, "the jug will be 2.5--3x filled" before...

Technically, the chart is doing something I love to see.

CAVEAT: NOT to be inferred as any sought of investment advice. Due diligence still applies as always.

It is well!

megawealth01:
JAIZ BANK is officially km4... One of my best decisions this 2024... Thanks to UNITY BANK for making this happen... Left my majority stake in unity for JAIZ few days ago...

My strategies always works

Why do I feel that your last sentence is probably a ploy to divert attention and avert paying your tithe to help the ministry.

Bros come and see me joor!
...no stories oo!

It is well

onegentleguy:

Most folks are always in a hurry to make bold assertions from a coys SPL.
Again, look beyond the SPL and take a deep dive into the SCF and BS.

Only if you saw the massive/triple digit growth accross key VPD including but not limited to the coys NCP, FCFE, CCC, CGPR, FCF and JPBG
with the 1st 2 determinant printing a 107% and 297% positive line.
For a company operating in a broadly capital intensive sector, TRANSCORP managed to achieve all this with just 4% increase in NDP from lower EFIR (debt stance) despite the jump in capital allocation... yet even lower CBR.

Hear this bro;
TRANSCORP did well at delivering value!

The days of <N1 TRANSCORP may we'll be behind us!
Perhaps there's something Sir Tony and FO need to tell us.

It is well

onegentleguy:


I can not come and go kill myself for nothing.

Rating: BUY/OUTPERFORM (ref: CMP in view)

#wearepreparedtomovewithit
#thatquestforvalue

Probable scenarios on TRANSCORP;

1) Certain crop of persons with links to the core investor/majority holder and those with insider information on the outcome of her last BOD meeting may have been mopping up the shares on the floor.
The coys recent technicals (ref: PV action) is suggestive of this fact.
This could be the reason for the high volatility in price of the asset as they tactfully push it down in spasms to engage in staggered but strategic accumulation until they achieve their set out target.

2) Then comes the unbundling of her energy business arm from the group and
listing of TRANSCORP ENERGY as a separate entity.

3) Allotment of an estimated % proportion to all stakeholders of TRANSCORP. (ref: UBA >> UCAP/AFPRUD way)
However, the % equity distribution to qualified minority holders will be very small, most probably a calculated attempt to ensure that TRANSCORP ENERGY's free float on listing, maintains a wide deviation from would-be OS, with NCI and "others" having the lion's share.

4) If truly the intention is to remain a listed entity, the share price will then be proped up (artificial skip) the "geregu way" (as we saw when geregu power was listed) to attract... and fulfill....

5) The core investor/majority holder will then proceed with a PP/RI post listing, to increase the coys OS.
Well of course for himself and/or his cronies by taking up an appreciable proportion of the PP/RI in other to remain in "charge" of affairs in the coy.

6) You may eventually be bought over in future (MTO in view) depending on how items No 4, 5 & 6 play out.

N.B: This is only a plausibility, not a certainty! ...so iit may or may not play out.

Whatever happens though, I continue to think that the current holders of TRANSCORP will benefit from it! Though much of what should accrue as great future benefit might end up been diverted. (if 4, 5 & 6 play out)

Interestingly, TRANSCORP POWER LTD dolled out a total cash dividend of N214 per share to its shareholders in 2022. And yes you heard me right... N214 !!
By the way, that's a near 70% increase from what was declared in the previous calendar yr.

Should I hold on to my TRANSCORP?

A lot depends on ones entry price. If you were among the early birds who keyed in below N1 or @ N1--2+, it might be ok to lock in your capital together with a good proportion of ROI and redirect the funds to other great asset. Then you can hold the balance.
Whatever happens, you should be good!

Many folks will recall I issued a buy recommendation on TRANSCORP, 1st @ N1.14 following several analysis.
I later gave it an outperform rating @ below N2 when many folks had doubts about the assets value accretive potential post release of her Q1, 2022 financial print.

As always, it pays to be among the early birds!

CAVEAT: NOT to be inferred as an investment advice. The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

It is well

The following was a chat between me and 2 fellows who subscribed to my investment outline/guide late last night.
Had to put this out there so those who might have similar question or thoughts and wish to get some clarification can be guided accordingly.

N:.B: Post was edited to exclude the actual names of the asset as used in the illustration.

1st Subscriber;
Hi Sinclair,
Thanks a lot for the well detailed outline and for all you do and continue to do to help folks like us beat the financial market.
I however noticed that out of the, I believe 18 company's in the outline, about 3--4 are currently trading above the prices you analyzed and recommended. Mind explaining why?
Though am also very content with the over 14 others still within buying range.
Thank you once again!

2nd Subscriber;
Dear OGG,
I have gone through the content and I must say it is overwhelming! While some have moved past your TEP, a lot of value still remains in others. I truly appreciate. 🙏
Thanks for the great details and bonuses.

Me;
Yes it's true that a few of the asset names have gone past their target entry prices (TEPs) but that's because they are not entirely fresh recommendations.
...some were initially recommended at lower prices and those who were privileged to subscribe for the outline/guide much earlier got in at those bargain prices.

To illustrate;

At least 2 of the asset in the have delivered over triple digit % gain from when I launched the outline/guide in late Nov, 2023.
Those who subscribed earlier and bought then must have gotten over 100% ROI on both stocks.

Again, there are other asset names that were previously recommended in my last outline before this one, but still part this one even when they've delivered astronomical returns. Infact 2 of the said coys have delivered a whooping 185 and 440% ROIs for those who bought at the average peg of the range in the previous outline.

And if you're probably wondering why I still included a few of them after they've already delivered great gains, it's because of their technical and fundamental stance. Fundamentally, these select assets are broadly healthy with many pockets of positive prospect (and for some, BU/TD catalyst) that can reproduce further price rise in view of their FVEs.

But based on technicals, price can retrace to the range you now have in your outline before another possible price uptrend, hence, the need for a recommendation at psychological SLs and below their CMPs.
This is a capital protection mechanism that ensures you don't overpay for an asset that has rallied and is already overbought.

For these few set of stocks, it's best to patiently wait for their prices to "come to you and not chase after them."
And if they don't, you can always buy from the many other asset names that are still trading within great entry zones and which provides you with a much better margin of safety after entry and positions you for a great ROI post price appreciation.

It is for this reason that some who subscribed for the outline/guide won't have exactly the same set of asset and/or the same exact prices. ...especially those who ordered much later.
I have to regularly do an in-depth but proficient review to certify that those who subscribe much later, also get as much VALUE as those who ordered earlier.

The outline has all the guidance you need. ...it's an all-touching outline that tells you where you need to put your money for a possible high ROI and gives you a proficient and efficient guide to succeed in it.

Just follow the instructions therein and you should make worthy returns.

Regards

Good day all,
I just replied to all mails and messages, so those concerned might wish to check their mail boxes.

My sincere apologies for the late revert.
Had to attend to some unfinished task for the most part today.

Regards

megawealth01:


Na your method good joor at least you get paid for the job well done unlike me wey they no go even common to recognize when they are in profits dey hard them

...depends on WHAT you give, and HOW you go about giving it!
That said, I think you are also doing well for yourself.

Cheers bro!

PIVOTAL INFORMATION;

All who subscribed to my complete outline/recommendations & investment guide should do well to look at the charts therein.
2 of the asset which are among the very few names yet to deliver much gain (just 4 out of the over 16 assets highlighted in the outline) are good to go!

Look at the said 2 charts, check out the TEP, PEP, RFA/RPW... on your outline.
One had just witnessed a bullish breakout, while the other has an 88% chance of doing so with both already up by approx 15 & 40% respectively. ...they will do more!
Am assuming you'll must have taken position before now.
The one with the lower yield is primed to give a further 40--51% return.

For the few coys (<30%) that are yet to record great gains (those with just 14--37% cap growth), fear not... hold and accumulate as price runs on volatility... they will respond!
Infact, it should pay to accumulate good volumes once you see them below or at the TEPs as stated in the outline.
My analysis reveals that buying at a max premium of 10--17% above the TEPs also gives you a healthy MoS/RRM.
Aside fundamentals, their TA/PVA setup remains healthy.

The key is to allot a bigger chunk of your fund (say 60--70%) to the select names that are yet to appreciate much in price if you're not done buying (I expect you should) or if you're redirecting funds from assets that have delivered great returns to one of little or none.
The balance of 30--40% can be allocated into names that have gone up, but buying in bits and only after a pullback. (again, respecting the TEPs, RFA/RPW as stated in the outline)
You already have a guide in the outline.

For those already up but yet to meet their PEPs, buying in bits at every pullback will help you position for great gains as sentiments improve.

Trust that you all are making money!

Many of the assets have recorded massive double digit gains while some are already on course for triple digit ROI.
My last check reveals that at least 70% of the coys in the outline have delivered btw 47--103%. (it's even a wave of triple digit % gains for some persons who got the outline much earlier)
Many of the assets will surpass the PEPs as stipulated in the guide with some primed to deliver triple digit returns.

Just know when to exit. The outline gives you an effective guide on this but you can of course decide to exit at your comfort zone.
That said, it's advisable to do a staggered but strategic exit to take out your capital and a good chunk of your ROI where there's a parabolic/quick growth in the price of a given asset.

In all, the outline has all the guidance you need. As I said then; it's an all-touching outline that tells you where you need to put your money for a possible high ROI and gives you a proficient and efficient guide to succeed in it.

Pls be guided accordingly.
Regards

The share price of TRANSCORP PLC has witnessed an astronomical rise delivering a whooping near 1,300% gain in just over 15 months!

The assets recent PV action might be a pointer to something. ...whatever that is, will sure be interesting!

Maybe... Just maybe strategic positioning ahead of a plausible plan to unbundle its diamond-in-the-rough energy business unit from the group.
That that may be the catalyst for the recent momentum build-up and spike in equity price would suite a possibility than a probability.

In this instance, fundamentals appears to be driven from the Nigerian description of a top-down approach to investing.

#Transcorpconnection
#TheTOEway

It is well

onegentleguy:


But for some inexplicable reason, this response should've been on the same date as your post above.
...didn't quite understand the difficulty with login in.

On JAIZ BANK, only if you knew that the glorified micro-finance bank as you put it, is among the top DMBs currently well placed to reap great returns from the persistently hawkish MP environment.
Little wonder why there was an astronomical rise in NPM (ref: 185%) in their Q3, 2023 financial print, following a near 36,800bps growth from playing in certain class of FII.

Interestingly, the said bank is about the only quoted coy in that sector with a seeming "antibody" that shields her from certain policy restrictions by the regulator/Apex bank in view of her operating model.

Only if you knew that...

Most folks will recall I initially highlighted the value accretive potential in JAIZ BANK @ N1.4 at about the same time I gave a buy rating on STERLING @ N1.7--1.8.
When that bank (JAIZ) begins it's run, "the jug will be 2.5--3x filled" before...

Technically, the chart is doing something I love to see.

CAVEAT: NOT to be inferred as any sought of investment advice. Due diligence still applies as always.

It is well!

WAPCO... WAPCO... WAPCO!
How many times did I call you?

As I child, I use to like taking a walk to the double 5 boulevard just beside the 60th avenue.
...it's a serenely calm place to be.

So much post to read from (just hope there hasn't been any e-fighting), yet not much time to do so.
Keep up the energy folks!

It is well.

Good day all,
I wish us all a blissfully happy new year and so much more.

Here's raising a glass to a healthy, peaceful and prosperous life this year and beyond.
...cheers! 🥂

May the biggest moments of 2023 be the least of experiences for you and yours in 2024!

Do have a pleasantly fruitful and fulfilling year ahead.
Regards

Streetinvestor2:
My oga you may be right. Before now I had said it was a stock to give you 100% next yr because of the bull run in that sector. I believed its os was around 20b plus then I saw 34b. Fundamental what ever they make will be nothing as per ep based on the os.And if they are coming to market for recapitalisation then something will be done to that os before then...my opinion. And if dead unity can trade at this present price expect JAIZBANK to do better. Then alhaji being equally a share holder and religious sentiment in the country is a plus too for the bank.
Nevertheless the os is not good for a bank of that size

The reason for the higher OS may not be unconnected to the recent right issue exercise.

A reverse stock split, if any, will likely not be anytime soon. There was a reason for that RI exercise and I can tell you that it is a good one.

The "Dangote factor" though positive, isn't really the nail-biter! There are other positives that makes JAIZ a worthy growth stock. (referencing it's CMP)
Small as it is, that bank is very well positioned to tap into the finance and investment plays in the current MP environment.

The phrase is; it is underpriced!
But then again, this is NOT an investment advice. Due diligence still applies as always.

Regards

Streetinvestor2:
is fbn and JAIZBANK mates in anyway JAIZBANK is a glorified micro finance bank

But for some inexplicable reason, this response should've been on the same date as your post above.
...didn't quite understand the difficulty with login in.

On JAIZ BANK, only if you knew that the glorified micro-finance bank as you put it, is among the top DMBs currently well placed to reap great returns from the persistently hawkish MP environment.
Little wonder why there was an astronomical rise in NPM (ref: 185%) in their Q3, 2023 financial print, following a near 36,800bps growth from playing in certain class of FII.

Interestingly, the said bank is about the only quoted coy in that sector with a seeming "antibody" that shields her from certain policy restrictions by the regulator/Apex bank in view of her operating model.

Only if you knew that...

Most folks will recall I initially highlighted the value accretive potential in JAIZ BANK @ N1.4 at about the same time I gave a buy rating on STERLING @ N1.7--1.8.
When that bank (JAIZ) begins it's run, "the jug will be 2.5--3x filled" before...

Technically, the chart is doing something I love to see.

CAVEAT: NOT to be inferred as any sought of investment advice. Due diligence still applies as always.

It is well!

Ositadima2:


In light of the stress test results, the CBN is likely to intensify its scrutiny of banks. This could lead to stricter regulations and higher compliance costs for financial institutions, potentially impacting their earnings.

If ETI is not included in the list as mentioned by OGG, then it stands to reason that ETI's would move up (this one is SA).

STANBIC IBTC is also not in the list.
Together with ETI, they are the 2 other quoted banking coys that were excluded by the Apex bank.
It begs the question(s); Why were both banks exempted? Could it be because their parent coys are not domiciled in Nigeria? ...or because those who really exact control on them (unlike those in the stress test list), are not locals?

Well as I said before; the important thing is to look to take advantage from any imbalance that might be created from all this.
Nigeria is basically a portfolio country.

It is well

yMcy56:

This got me lmao.
Thank goodness say dem no mention those banks, we for no hear word for hia today.
What if the small ones complied and met the required CAR?

* Meanwhile, more accumulations ongoing in the bank stocks...,...... especially tier-1

There's need to understand the reason for the circular so people don't blow things out of proportion.

The only reason the smaller banks (as you put it) aren't in the list is because they do not hold an international operating licence. ...in other words, they do not have int'l presence for now.
For instance; Sterling, Wema and Jaiz hold national banking licenses.
I think the Apex bank have 3 major licencing categories for DMBs (Regional, Nat'l and Int'l), with each having their peculiarities in terms of operational guideline.

The stress test was only conducted to weigh in on the requisite CAR on banks with int'l presence in view of current economic realities.
Like I told some folks; there's absolutely nothing to fret about. Virtually all the said banks have enough capital buffer to make up for the needed shortfall. The lag in CAR is just 3% from actual requirement.

The question you should be asking is why ETI and STABIC IBTC (the other 2 quoted banking coys with Int'l presence) is NOT in the list?
Could it be because their parent coys are not in Nigeria? ...or because those who exact control on this 2 (unlike those in the stress test list), are not locals?

Understanding the essence of a message is often more important than the message itself. ...there's really nothing new here!
But of course Nigerians, especially investors will always tend to overreact on matters like this.

There's also an ongoing misrepresentation and misinterpretation of another circular purportedly from the ED of NIBBS, which gave a directive to disconnect Switches, PSSPs and Super agents from the NIP (NIBBS instant payment) outwards system.

Seems having bouts of knee-jack reaction post information dissemination is the norm in this clime. People tend to become overly excited when it's a positive news and unduly perturbed when its a negative one. ...too much extremities!
Investors will always find it hard to contain their reflexes when they're not properly informed/enlightened and/or where there's the absence of a proficient strategy to manage fear and greed.
Your duty is look to take advantage of such imbalances where necessary.

CAVEAT: NOT to be infered as any sought of investment advice. ...Due diligence still applies as always.

Regards

onegentleguy:
On GLAXOSMITHKLINE Nigeria:

A brief...
As I stated before now; twice I put up a very important post on GSK here, twice I got banned and the post also taken down.

I've just been informed that many of the concerns I raised then including the near 1 probability of an upward price review in view of the coys exit part have been highlighted and could be addressed at the court ordered meeting today.
(I did some extrapolations and estimates using certain key lines in their financial print)

As I also stated then; most of the company's product (ref: over 90%) have skyrocketed in price, many witnessing as high as btw 370--500% jump.
For instance, one of their prescription antibiotic, AUGMENTIN (used for the treatment of a wide range of bacteria causing infections) has risen from N4,500 prior to the announcement of their exit plan to over N23,000 at the moment. (N25,000 and and above in some places)
...so also are most of their fast selling product (i.e Ventolin, Advair etc) and even their H&PC products (i.e Sensodyn)
Granted, many healthcare products (like every other commodity) has gone up in price due largely to the surrounding macroeconomic dynamics but that of GSK have been up even more.

Many of these upward adjustment in price occurred in H2, 2023 (in the last 6 months) and should reflect in their books as wider RM, GPM, NOI...
Again the recent surge in demand for these products (occasioned by the resultant disequilibrium in the demand-supply chain) must have brought about an improvement in CCC, CGPR, CROIC/ROCE, JPBG and ROAE/EM... a positive for shareholders in that timeframe.

Interestingly, the coy had what I consider a good inventory "level" with a QoQ improvement in InVT in the period leading up to the announcement.

GSK can not "eat" all that money alone.
The BoDs will need to add something worthy to that N17.42
The shareholders should insist on getting more!

By the way, congratulations to the 1st set of buyers who checked in @ N5+. Sure it was worth the wait!

Those who ordered for the complete investment outline had a brief analysis and guide on this and much more... they know how to better approach the market!
...I gave out so much more in the outline!

CAVEAT: NOT to be inferred as any sought of recommendation. ...the need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

Selah

Update on GSK;

Apparently, there'll be no immediate top-up on the initially proposed cash distribution of N17.42. (shareholders could not hold their ground on this one)

However, the BoDs will approve a final payment from asset sale, projected to be in the region of N4 Billion (>/= N4B)
My estimate on this is a Naira equivalent of btw N4.6--6.20 per share distribution to shareholders.

There's also the not-so-clear part about some form of allotment to shareholders in proportion to one's equity holding as derived from the creation of the equivalent of the company's distribution reserve through a share reorganization exercise amounting to N2,000,000,000 in FV. (200,000 units of 50k each @ N100,000 p/s. (one needs to get the document that further expanciates on this part)
Sharing to shareholder's will be executed by it's trustee, FBNQuest.

The 1st cash distribution of N17.42 is expected to be paid no later than Dec 28, 2023.
...still a HOLD for us!

It is well

On GLAXOSMITHKLINE Nigeria:

A brief...
As I stated before now; twice I put up a very important post on GSK here, twice I got banned and the post also taken down.

I've just been informed that many of the concerns I raised then including the near 1 probability of an upward price review in view of the coys exit part have been highlighted and could be addressed at the court ordered meeting today.
(I did some extrapolations and estimates using certain key lines in their financial print)

As I also stated then; most of the company's product (ref: over 90%) have skyrocketed in price, many witnessing as high as btw 370--500% jump.
For instance, one of their prescription antibiotic, AUGMENTIN (used for the treatment of a wide range of bacteria causing infections) has risen from N4,500 prior to the announcement of their exit plan to over N23,000 at the moment. (N25,000 and and above in some places)
...so also are most of their fast selling product (i.e Ventolin, Advair etc) and even their H&PC products (i.e Sensodyn)
Granted, many healthcare products (like every other commodity) has gone up in price due largely to the surrounding macroeconomic dynamics but that of GSK have been up even more.

Many of these upward adjustment in price occurred in H2, 2023 (in the last 6 months) and should reflect in their books as wider RM, GPM, NOI...
Again the recent surge in demand for these products (occasioned by the resultant disequilibrium in the demand-supply chain) must have brought about an improvement in CCC, CGPR, CROIC/ROCE, JPBG and ROAE/EM... a positive for shareholders in that timeframe.

Interestingly, the coy had what I consider a good inventory "level" with a QoQ improvement in InVT in the period leading up to the announcement.

GSK can not "eat" all that money alone.
The BoDs will need to add something worthy to that N17.42
The shareholders should insist on getting more!

By the way, congratulations to the 1st set of buyers who checked in @ N5+. Sure it was worth the wait!

Those who ordered for the complete investment outline had a brief analysis and guide on this and much more... they know how to better approach the market!
...I gave out so much more in the outline!

CAVEAT: NOT to be inferred as any sought of recommendation. ...the need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

Selah

onegentleguy:
Pivotal Information:
To all those who ordered/subscribed for the COMPLETE OUTLINE AND INVESTMENT GUIDE "on 8 treasured/explosive equity names with high value accretive potential";

Pls if you are among the 1st set of subscribers that got the outline but not the follow-up guide, kindly use the mail correspondence (onegentleguy3@gmail.com), stating same but using only the same mail as that when placing your order. (this last part in italics is very important to facilitate prompt response)
...otherwise, pls attach your order proof of payment if our form of engagement was via a SI platform like WhatsApp or Telegram.

For those still asking about the outline; I already gave a brief description/highlight on that including what to expect and the likely benefits to a subscriber in my previous post.
As I stated then; there's an extremely high plausibility that the assets highlighted in the outline will deliver good returns. ...88% likely success rate from no less than 70% (at least 2/3) of the coys mentioned therein.

Again if you didn't receive the additional guide, follow the instructions herein and send a mail now so I can copy everyone involved and revert at once. (for want of time)

The additional follow-up guide is free as long as one had previously placed an order for the complete investment outline.

...Pls be guided accordingly.

I wish us all a fruitful and fulfilling week ahead!
Regards

Dear all,

Kindly note that I've just replied to all mails and messages connected to the above and even more.

Regards

Pivotal Information:
To all those who ordered/subscribed for the COMPLETE OUTLINE AND INVESTMENT GUIDE "on 8 treasured/explosive equity names with high value accretive potential";

Pls if you are among the 1st set of subscribers that got the outline but not the follow-up guide, kindly use the mail correspondence (onegentleguy3@gmail.com), stating same but using only the same mail as that when placing your order. (this last part in italics is very important to facilitate prompt response)
...otherwise, pls attach your order proof of payment if our form of engagement was via a SI platform like WhatsApp or Telegram.

For those still asking about the outline; I already gave a brief description/highlight on that including what to expect and the likely benefits to a subscriber in my previous post.
As I stated then; there's an extremely high plausibility that the assets highlighted in the outline will deliver good returns. ...88% likely success rate from no less than 70% (at least 2/3) of the coys mentioned therein.

Again if you didn't receive the additional guide, follow the instructions herein and send a mail now so I can copy everyone involved and revert at once. (for want of time)

The additional follow-up guide is free as long as one had previously placed an order for the complete investment outline.

...Pls be guided accordingly.

I wish us all a fruitful and fulfilling week ahead!
Regards