₦airaland Forum

robobo:
I guess you wanted to qoute 430 billion. check the notes in 11.1 (extract below) the bulk of the loan relates to Transpower (a subsidiary) which should benefit from the impending settlement of over 4 trillion power debt waiting to be securitised (via bond) by the FG

"A significant portion of the trade receivable relates to receivable from the NigerianBulkElectricityTradingPlcwhich is the regulatory body for the power business in Nigeria."

You're right; I was looking at the current six-month scorecard.

Mpeace:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/44660_TRANSNATIONAL_CORPORATION_PLC-_QUARTER_2_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JULY_2025.pdf

TRANSCORP yeye company.

Not too bad. I think they have very large receivables — they sold a lot on credit. If they can collect before year-end, they’ll be fine. Over ₦130 billion in receivables.

jonnysessy:
Yet to see anyone corroborate this assertion. I can't seem to also see it anywhere in the news. Or is this a market whisper? But, if it happens, it will be very good. So, i can start budgeting my interim dividends

Now, u see say na expo d guy give you, ucap go pay 30 kobo interim dividend. No dey do like that ooo.

jonnysessy:
Yet to see anyone corroborate this assertion. I can't seem to also see it anywhere in the news. Or is this a market whisper? But, if it happens, it will be very good. So, i can start budgeting my interim dividends

Somebody give you expo, you won go ask invigilator whether na true, kwontinue...

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Itzlinda:
Thank you.
Dangote also made ₦30 and pay ₦30. Which means dangote is more profitable naira by naira compared with Bua.

This means if you are looking for dividend and want to invest in Cement. It is better to go with dangote cement than Bua.

That’s not always the case. Also, check the statement of cash flows—that’s where you see the actual money available to pay dividends, not just the EPS. Investments in tangible and intangible assets are typically deducted first before dividends are considered, unless the company is paying dividends from loans or equity.

EDUECO:
It is not good because of the very poor earning capacity of the company.

Dangote as a billionaire in US Dollar and can cater for 10,000 offsprings in 2026.

Ok, thanks.

EDUECO:
I don't know why most persons fear dilution; dilution is not the issue,the issue is poor earning power of the company involved!

Is like saying can Aliko Dangote cater for 1000 offsprings through sperm donation in order to produce more babies in 2026? The answer is yes,Aliko Dangote has the financial capacity to do it.But a man earning 2 million Naira per cannot try it.

I understand you, but in this context, is dilution really a good thing for EllahLakes?

Even Dangote would struggle with 1,000 children—in that 1,000, you'd find everything from scammers, transgenders to troublemakers to all kinds of characters. I don’t think that helps anyone.

ndept:
It is their investment/money. They can do anything with it, either sell/hold. It is normal and a free market. If there is value in Ellah, those that see the value will pick it up and if it is contrary, market will do justice to it. But then, I can understand your concern that the company shares will be over bloated.

Ok, thanks.

ndept:
In the spirit of fairness (I stand to be corrected though), that huge amount was invested by some people when the share price was around 280k. Therefore, the equity needs to be converted as same amount. The question I always ask myself is: If I am the one that invested that huge amount at that very time, will I not make a case for it to be converted at the prevailing share price on the day I invested it.

That's not what I'm asking. Are EllahLakes shares going to be further diluted with the issuance of new shares or not? One billion new shares is no small matter—especially considering they might want to offload some at the current high price.

yMcy56:
Since you didn't listen, aren't you hasty in your conclusion?
I'm not defending ELLAH and if i defend it, well, is it normal to work against something you are a part of or believed in ?
When I'm not Streetinvestor......

The converted shares has long been listed and added to the OS...
Do your search online nah.
When I'm not street

Alright, thanks.

yMcy56:
Mega, the loan conversion was done way back @N2.80 nah.......when Ellah was trading at around N3...
I can even remember posting it here....

Whosoever beleives in ELLAHLAKES should go for it and wait patiently....
Anyone that doesn't have confidence in the management or the company, then exit door is very open on the secondary floor.
Make dem no start this ELLAH troubles here again o

I didn’t listen to the AGM—I’ll do so later. But my question is: are these other guys, like JideFlash and KarlTom, stupid for reporting that the resolution vote happened today? Or is it now the new normal for a conversion that was supposedly done long ago—according to you—to just be getting a resolution today from EllahLakes? The way you defend stocks sometimes is honestly funny. But hey, keep doing you.

Sabiboy99:
It's seems like Wale Adenuga is the o ly guy whose company aren't listed on the NGX but he is still doing very well, or I'm I missing something?

Conoil?

kintus:
Senior....Good afternoon, Sir. Please can you help look into CIleasing?

How low can we go?

Thank you, Sir.

I don't know your entry price, but maybe you should consider holding. Based on valuation, the target is around 13.28, with a conservative minimum of 9.44. From a TA perspective, I see support at 6.5, and there are sellers around 9—so if it breaks above 9, I don't see why it can't reach 13 and maybe beyond. But, note that the FA have a few concerns: very high debt-to-equity and low ROIC. Do your due diligence o.

yMcy56:
E Ku Dangsugar result o..
Best result released.....
Massive revenue, loss exited!
Don't look at the small group loss, its actually profit technically if you look at where they're coming from....... Company exited loss....
Q3 will be Massive!
* No wonder I saw heavy bids in market.......3M, 4M, 5M single bids......
DANGSUGAR is back......should close gap with NASCON

Yes, they’ve started generating value. FCF per share is currently around 3.03; assuming a similar figure by year-end, that brings the full-year FCF per share to approximately 6.06. This would suggest a valuation of over 100, with a conservative minimum of 79. Of course, this involves a lot of projections, which may either overstate or understate the actual outcome. So, at the current price, it’s a buy—but only with proper risk mitigation in place.

yMcy56:
My Oga, their vawulence no be today nah..
I don get immuned against their troubles.....😁

The Ogas don’t even know where to put their money anymore—they’ve already conquered the NGX. Let them move to higher ground; I trust they can conquer the Nasdaq and NYSE too.

Sunrisepebble:
I’m conflicted now. I was making the case for selling NAHCO a few weeks ago because even if they made a N12 EPS at a 10x PE, it’s currently fairly priced. But if you sell where do you put the funds that will deliver same value, that’s 10% div yield and constant earnings growth, not sure

Personally, I would hold. I have several stocks like that, a few pay over 40% because I bought them long ago. UCAP, for instance, pays me almost what I originally paid for it. So if the stock still looks good based on your analysis, and you don’t see a safer alternative, then it makes sense to hold.

emmanuelewumi:
About 50 bagger from 2020 till date that is awesome.

I might need to review the target price for December 2025 from N120 to something higher

Okay, that’s good. But someone must sell for the price to be discovered—no sales, no movement.

emmanuelewumi:
Nahco is now at N114.90k, don't underestimate how high a stock which combines growth, with quality and value can fly

People have to buy and sell for the price to move. If everyone just holds indefinitely, the market stalls. All the price gains we enjoy are because people are actively buying and selling—otherwise, we’d only be collecting dividends.

Zooposki:
I dont pay any fees when buying US stock from some investment apps. How do they survive?

Bid/ask spread: They probably make money by offering a wider spread than others who charge based on commission.

Now back to my hobby — take a look at EllahLakes. If you're in profit, take profit. I didn’t say sell off completely, just take some profit. There are sellers waiting around ₦12, and they’ll crash it again as soon as buyers build up.

Fundamentally, it has overshot. I’m particularly interested in this one because I started the current EllahLakes movement here, and it's only honorable to point out hiccups when I see them — unlike some people who only talk about entry, but never talk about exit.

ositadima1:
You are the one who is late to the party, not TA. After 2022, TA would have advised you to wait for it at 20, as there was support there from 2021. The other significant point would have been around 30, which is clear in the chart because that was the resistance throughout 2022. In 2023, that resistance was broken, and if you had WAPCO in your sights, you should have entered then.

As of today, support is at about 35 or below. If you can acquire it there, you should be fine. Set your target for 45 and above. But why do people try to dismiss what they don't understand? I respect all strategies, whether FA or TA; they all have their strengths and weaknesses. And, just as we have Buffett, we also have Simons, who made billions using technicals.

ositadima1:
Amber Alert!!!

Watch out for WAPCO and GUINNESS. There are some sentiments reflected in their charts, though I'm not certain whether they are positive or negative.

Check the dates I posted those. One was in response to the fellow called Street, and the other was a standalone statement — made well before the news about Chinkos intentions. The charts had already hinted at a rise back then.

So, you follow fundamental analysis — that’s fine. Technical analysis also has its strengths.

Mfunkynation:
Chai.... You do have a vision!
460 => 1300+
See Hammer!

Lol, many people pointed it out—myself included. I told the guys in DangSugar back then to get out because of all the issues. I also disclosed that I was entering Presco as a much better alternative. I've more than doubled since then. How are the sugar guys doing now? When the dust settles someday, I’ll be back with you on sugar, lol.

Agbalowomeri:
Hmmm I don't agree with your take. At least, the naira is no longer on the downward spiral as recently witnessed

Lol, the dollar will come down significantly over time. The effects of the Dangote Refinery have not fully filtered in yet — I read that the refinery is still operating below peak capacity. Other refineries are also coming on board. Not only will this reduce our overall import demand, but it will also generate foreign exchange through exports.

Very soon, one of our biggest drains on forex — in multiple forms — will be eliminated. I’ve said it before and I still stand by that analysis. When it starts happening clearly, remember I said it. You guys argued otherwise, so don’t change your stance when the results begin to show.

...............................................................................................................................

SAK:
. How or which app can one use to check RSI?

There are many platforms you can use — the most popular free ones are: TradingView . com and Investing . com

Both have web versions and include NGX stocks. In the chart indicator section, you’ll find RSI and many more tools for technical analysis.

If you don’t know how to use them, don’t hesitate to ask AI for directions — nothing wrong with that. Everybody uses it these days, even pros.

faoogoke:
The fall of CAVERTON is serious.

Just when I entered last week at 8.10. its going for 5.88 today

If you use TA, here's one way to avoid unnecessary pain:

I don’t know why you entered, so I’m not judging. But here's a tool that might help — the 14-day RSI. Use it as a risk gauge, not a buy/sell trigger like most people do:

Above 60: Risk is building

Above 80: Risk is very high

So next time, before entering, check where the RSI stands. Only get in if you have strong conviction, and the higher the RSI, the stronger your conviction should be. If not, maybe wait for a better entry.

ositadima1:
Dangote Cement and even BUA Cement—time will come when they start "shaking body," and some people will ask when I pointed it out. A 50% increase or more is very possible. I don't predict that it must happen tomorrow; rather, I give it enough time—whether one year, six months, or even less—and it will happen.

March 17th — my call. Let's see how it plays out. No need for too much talk.

KarlTom:
ELLAH on FO

I think I’ve mentioned it here before — it’s wise to take profit, because truth be told, EllahLakes is still a speculative stock.

That guy, Ojesky or something, who compared it to how he missed Okomu Oil — I noticed something: we have a mindset problem. People enter a stock as traders, but want to exit as investors, or enter as investors and try to exit like traders.

Know why you got in, have a clear target, and execute accordingly.

As it stands, the market has already priced in everything EllahLakes currently has going for it — even the potential revenue it may soon start generating. In fact, I believe it’s overshot significantly. That’s why I referenced the hypothetical ₦0.90 dividend, if it were to be priced fundamentally.

For EllahLakes to resume its upward move, it must first justify the current price levels with solid fundamentals — because at the end of the day, the market prices actual value creation.

I just hope it doesn’t fall too far and can hold above ₦9.

To prove that the tools do work, here’s a post I made — you might remember it. After the whole Champion saga, someone asked me to share a few tickers. I did, and I "allocated" (Hypothetically o, no be my money oo) about ₦5 million to each of them.

As of today, the results speak for themselves. Maybe it’s luck, maybe it’s fake — who knows?

HesInMe:
Lol. It's not that serious. All na yarns. I'm happy for people who made money in Ellah, and hoping they -- especially the ones with limited means -- are smart enough to know when their luck runs out.



So this is just opinion? "...fundamentally, at ₦12.60 per share, the company should either be paying around 90 kobo in dividends or generating free cash flow close to ₦3 billion." What informs the logic? Why didn't it apply at N8 per share?

I chose not to share again — and if you’ve been following my posts from way back (they’re all on this thread, by the way), you’d know that I used to post my charts and explain my reasoning clearly.

Now, I’ve decided not to do that anymore. It’s proprietary information. I’ve built my own scripts that guide my decisions — none of it is random.

That said, I’m not claiming my tools are infallible either.

HesInMe:
Now you remember fundamentals? What was fundamentally supporting the stock at N3, N4, N5, etc., with zero revenue?

Since fundamentals don't matter, let's go to the moon!

I’ve already answered this question here — many times. And every time I do, it ends in an argument.

If you still don’t want to understand that a stock can move based on projected earnings, then just look the other way. Why bother yourself with it? Do what you understand and leave these kinds of plays to those who truly understand them — along with the risks involved.

EllahLakes, like many other companies — think Tesla or even Amazon — started off burning cash with little visible revenue. Yet people priced them based on future return potential. It took years before they began turning a profit. It’s a risky venture, yes, but as I’ve also pointed out, risk can be mitigated.

Now, my opinion — based on both technical and fundamental analysis — is that EllahLakes may have priced in much of its upside for now, and a correction is possible.

If you still don’t get it, no need to respond. Again, focus on what you understand — the NGX is big enough for all of us.