₦airaland Forum

Mpeace:
Q1 dividend. Tomorrow is public holiday. Payment was to be tomorrow.

That stock can pay dividend ehhh.

They will start gas production from their ANOH plant here in Imo state, by next month.
There has been alot of activities around the plant recently.

Massive plant

Even Cap drop something too.

I just received another alert from Seplat—this is the third time. What’s going on?

yMcy56:
Ok.
I don give you one 'like' 😁

Thank you, much appreciated! That was my first like of the day — I'm dancing to that "Uta Fika" song!

ositadima1:
What heat? T-Bills are still high — the true yield for a one-year bill is still over 20%. Don’t quote salespeople; they’ll always say whatever it takes to boost their sales.

It reminds me of that guy doing 2% monthly. Unless he's compounding, he'd be better off with Treasury Bills — 20% of his ₦150 million is about ₦30 million with zero risk or volatility.

yMcy56:
Lol.
Na turn by turn.....
There was a time FG also made stocks unattractive because of TB rates, now make TB also feel the heat small.....

Meanwhile, make Dem free NNFM make e reach 200 fast o. 😊
The management suppose declare bonus self.

Betaglass is now having bids....

What heat? T-Bills are still high — the true yield for a one-year bill is still over 20%. Don’t quote salespeople; they’ll always say whatever it takes to boost their sales.

HesInMe:
ChatGPT will be the end of us, as we will suspend common sense to reach for fringe "possibilities."

For comparison, here are the components of cost of sales for Presco, which I hope is illuminating. (Some of them relate to the mills, though.)

- Raw materials consumed
- Upkeep of mature plantings, harvesting & laboratory expenses
- Employee cost (where they separated "salaries in cost of sales" from these in admin cost)
- Mill processing, refinery and packaging cots
- Depreciation of property, plant and equipment
- Depreciation of right-of-use assets
- Repairs and maintenance

So Ellah is running their own plantation and selling produce without any of these costs? See magic!

You still haven't disproven my submission. All I see here is a struggle to be right. Many auditing techniques are applied on the NGX, and while I don't know why, that's simply my observation.

Some auditors classify depreciation under cost of sales, while others record it under operating expenses. For example, Okumoil’s 2024 audited financials didn’t even bother to distinguish between the two. Can you point out which one is cost of sales and which is operating expense in that report?

You might argue for item 11 — "Raw materials and consumables used" — but they didn't include depreciation there either. Instead, it was presented as a standalone item.

So, either make a solid case — based on accounting principles — that the scenario I clearly described in my previous post is impossible, or simply admit that you don’t know. There's no need to blame ChatGPT.

HesInMe:
No need for English (I know you have sense, so think am: even consulting firms typically don't have zero cost of sales). Ellah's CEO said on the Arise interview that the large majority of sales came from sales of fresh fruit bunches.

What's your analysis now?

I admit I didn't listen to the interview prior to my comment, but my point still stands: it is possible. My argument hinges on possibility. Here is why:


This scenario, where a palm farm capitalizes the palm trees and the buyers bear the cost of harvesting the fruits. Let's break down;

1. Capitalization of Palm Trees (Bearer Plants):

Under accounting standards like IAS 16 (Property, Plant, and Equipment) and amendments to IAS 41 (Agriculture), mature palm trees are generally classified as bearer plants.

Bearer plants are treated like fixed assets (like machinery in a factory). Their costs (planting, development until maturity) are capitalized on the balance sheet, and then depreciated over their useful life. This depreciation is an operating expense, not a cost of sales.

The fruits themselves (Fresh Fruit Bunches - FFB) are the agricultural produce. Under IAS 41, at the point of harvest, the FFB are measured at their fair value less costs to sell. This fair value then generally becomes the cost of the inventory of FFB. (Normal Case)

2. Buyers Bearing Harvesting Costs:
This is the critical element. If the contract with the buyer explicitly states that:

The buyer is responsible for sending their own labor and equipment to the farm to harvest the palm fruits.

The buyer bears all direct costs associated with this harvesting (labor, fuel, transportation from the field to their trucks).

The farm essentially sells the "standing crop" or the "right to harvest" the fruits on its trees.

In this situation, the farm's revenue comes from the sale of the fruits, but the direct cost of harvesting those specific fruits is not incurred by the farm.


Therefore, the farm would have:
1. Revenue: From the sale of palm fruits.
2. Zero Cost of Sales (for direct harvesting): Because the direct costs of harvesting were borne by the buyer.
3. Operating Costs: The farm would still incur significant operating costs related to maintaining the plantation.

USA2019:
Yeah. They still recorded some losses—so the issue might be with their cost allocation. I’m just playing devil’s advocate here.

They’re asking a funny question. Gross margin is a function of revenue and cost of sales — so if the cost of sales is assumed to be zero, then the gross margin would be 100%. (lol, cost of sale is infinitesimally close to zero (not exactly zero), kind of like an asymptote — remember that from further math )

Then, there are also operating expenses, which are clearly stated in their financials. These are different from cost of sales and are actually what led to the losses.

yMcy56:
They must have made some to panic sell...
In fact, they don make one big oga here sell in panic due to their paralysis..

How can you be quick to point out Auditors report on last page and neglect the Profit made in 2nd or third page?

Why aren't they fair in their judgement by pointing out both sides?

Going thru the press release, though I never read all, Wale is optimistic that from 2025 we'll be seeing much more improvement....

What if the auditors are playing script with those reports?
Nestle, MTNN were also in massive losses but came out of it unexpectedly..... Is it just less than a year of stability in FX that made all to disappear like that?

Oando PLC released its audited results for the year ended December 31, 2024, highlighting a transformative year driven by the acquisition and integration of Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC).

Key Financial and Operational Highlights (Full-Year 2024):

Revenue: Increased by 44% to ₦4.1 trillion, up from ₦2.9 trillion in 2023. This growth was primarily due to higher upstream output and foreign exchange gains.

Profit After Tax (PAT): Rose by 267% to ₦220 billion, compared to ₦60 billion in 2023. This was driven by the intrinsic value of the NAOC acquisition and a gain on bargain purchase.

Capital Expenditure (Capex): Totaled ₦19 billion, a 58% decrease from ₦45 billion in 2023, reflecting a focus on completing the NAOC acquisition. Development activity is expected to increase in 2025.

Production: Achieved an average daily production of 23,727 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), a 3% increase from 2023. This was supported by the NAOC contribution and stabilization of legacy assets. Crude oil production specifically rose by 22% to 7,558 bopd.

2P Reserves: Grew by 95% year-on-year to 983 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe) from 505 MMboe in 2023, primarily due to the NAOC acquisition.


Impact of NAOC Acquisition:
The acquisition of 100% of Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC) for $754 million (excluding other associated costs) was completed on August 22, 2024. This acquisition significantly deepened Oando's upstream portfolio by:

Increasing Oando's net working interest in OMLs 60-63 from 20% to 40%.

Doubling 2P reserves from 500 million barrels of oil equivalent to 1 billion barrels (specifically 983 MMboe at year-end 2024).

Assuming operatorship of the OML 60-63 series.

Expanding the operating footprint to include 40 discovered fields (24 currently producing), approximately 40 additional prospects, over 1,250 km of pipelines, multiple flow stations, three gas processing plants, a major export terminal, and two power plants with a combined capacity of 1 GW.
Enabling greater control over associated gas infrastructure, positioning Oando to deepen its role in Nigeria's domestic gas supply and LNG value chains.

Segment Performance:
Upstream Exploration and Production: Average daily production increased, with crude oil production rising significantly. The company sustained an operational uptime of 86% and achieved a 92% reduction in routine gas flaring since 2007.

Trading: Traded volumes of crude oil decreased by 37% to 20.7 million barrels, and refined product volumes declined by 64% to 599 thousand metric tons. This was attributed to structural changes in the Nigerian oil market, shifts in NNPC's crude allocation, and macroeconomic headwinds in Nigeria affecting domestic demand. Oando participated in NNPC's Project Gazelle through a $550 million crude prepayment.


Clean Energy: The electric mass transit program transported over 205,000 passengers, avoiding more than 163,500 kg of CO2 emissions. Progress was made on geothermal power development, wind projects (275MW), and a 1.2 GW solar module assembly plant.

Mining and Infrastructure: Oando Mining acquired five new lithium exploration licenses and completed the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) for Nigeria's first commercial-scale bitumen mine.

Financial Position:

Total Assets: Increased by 140% to ₦6.4 trillion (2023: ₦2.7 trillion), primarily due to the consolidation of assets from the NAOC acquisition.

Total Liabilities: Increased to ₦6.8 trillion (2023: ₦2.9 trillion), reflecting acquisition-related debt, vendor payables, and statutory obligations.

Cash and Cash Equivalents: Rose to ₦221.8 billion (2023: ₦73.3 billion).
Net Finance Costs: Increased by 63% to ₦188.6 billion due to foreign exchange revaluation and interest on new borrowings for the NAOC acquisition.

Outlook for 2025:
Oando plans to focus on post-acquisition optimization and accelerated value delivery across upstream assets. Key priorities include:

Unlocking synergies from the NAOC acquisition.
Addressing security risks to curb oil theft.
Cost optimization, targeting a 20% reduction in overall costs.

Balance sheet restructuring.
Targeting a full-year average production of 30,000-40,000 boepd.

Launching 50 new electric buses to support clean mobility objectives.

Concluding partner engagement for the Bitumen Project to enter the feasibility phase.
Exploring transitioning one or more lithium licenses into small-scale production and broadening its mining portfolio to include tin and gold.

Governance and Shareholder Distribution:
In 2024, Oando refreshed its Board of Directors with the appointment of a Non-Executive Chairman and Independent Non-Executive Directors to strengthen governance and investor alignment. The Board also approved the phased distribution of 1.28 billion ordinary shares to shareholders, to be distributed in two tranches in 2025.

Copied...

Payunsin:
I bought Oando at N5.71 sold n sold it close to N90 accumulated at around N38 again

You did well, Boss. Some people are just jokers — here to catch cruise on an empty stomach — while others are doing fundamental analysis and growing slowly.

Meanwhile, some took bold chances early on and made their money while they were still young. Now it’s time to invest wisely in safe assets and enjoy life with your family. I no call names ooo.

Payunsin:
The analysis on Oando here funny despite the 220b relieved it's on full bid
Anything above N55 I will drop my Kaya I bought at Average of N38,
Continue with analysis oooo, while some are making serious money from it.
I pray Almighty God continue to be with me, the small money I made from Oando is enough for my lifetime

I don’t understand, Boss. I hope you’re not cheap. Your average entry is ₦38, and Oando is currently at ₦55, as you said — so how come? Or have you been trading it actively since then?

emmanuelewumi:
If there is no cost of sale, that means the revenue and gross profit are the same.

How is that possible in agriculture?

Farmers should please explain to me

I’ve already given examples where this is possible. If you're selling a service that doesn’t cost you anything to produce, then yes, revenue can come with zero cost of sales. Take a transport business, for instance — if their main operation is to carry passengers from point A to B, but they also do parcel delivery between parks at no additional cost, then the money generated from that parcel service would have zero cost. The vehicle was going to make the trip anyway. The same logic can apply to some agricultural businesses.

Maybe I’m wrong though — let the farmers among us shed more light on this.

HesInMe:
So, for this supposedly farming operation, buyers also bore Ellah's expenses for:

- Raw materials and other inputs (seed, feed, fresh fruit bunches for mill, fertilizer, pest control, crop insurance, etc.)
- Direct labour
- Overhead costs attributable to sales (e.g., facility costs, electricity, equipment depreciation)

Sales straight out of thin air... And we thought Oando's financial engineering was next level.

Una neva see.

emmanuelewumi:
They don't understand the meaning of cost of sale

I’m speaking from a neutral standpoint here — neither in support nor against. A zero cost of sales is entirely possible. If you look at their financials again, you'll see they haven't sold any physical goods — no seedlings, no palm fruits — contrary to some claims that they’ve started selling farm produce. This suggests there was likely no initial investment in what’s generating revenue.

There are several ways a farm can generate revenue without incurring a direct cost of sales, such as:

Agricultural consulting services

Land leasing or rentals

Farm equipment leasing or rentals

Agricultural training

Brokerage or matchmaking services in agriculture

While none of these may be their main source of income, they also never claimed to be selling goods produced on the farm, yet. So yes, it is very possible. Let's be arguing with sense!

bastardson:
Which should I increase my stake in?

Aradel or Access.. I have a substantial amount in both

This is strictly technical. I'm not seeing any significant moves for now regarding Aradel — it looks like it will still be available for less than ₦460.

AccessCorp appears to be setting up for a major move, either up or down. I believe the move will be upward. There's resistance around ₦17, but it has the potential to reach ₦34.

leo1234:
Which stock has more upwards potential (breasts) between UBA and AFRIPRUD?

I would go with UBA for several technical reasons. UBA is much more liquid than AFRIPRUD—you can place large funds quickly and recover your money just as fast if you decide to exit. AFRIPRUD is moving sideways currently without strong interest; the market isn’t really concerned with it. But, oh boy, UBA is getting serious attention: almost 50 billion naira exchanged in the last 5 trading days @34 naira. Although trades involve both sellers and buyers, for buyers to show that much interest, they must be very positive about this stock. In the short term, UBA may drop to around ₦30 or below because it is in a mini bear, but I don’t think that changes its long-term potential. This is my analysis based on the charts.

Shalom428:
Rice will happen soon or later, then Food. It will be a kill for those who bought sugar at this price and hold on to it.

https://punchng.com/dangote-niger-govt-unveil-rice-project/

Nascon is already running it's own race. Food or no food , #70 is guaranteed

DYDD

We want to see the issues with Dangote Sugar resolved, but so far, there is no evidence that they have been. The company is grappling with the high cost of imported raw sugar, largely driven by currency devaluation—a cost they’ve been unable to fully pass on to consumers, possibly to avoid giving competitors a pricing advantage.

The logical alternative would be to rely on local production, but they can’t scale up to the required quantities overnight. And that’s without even considering the impact of today’s high interest rates.

With rice now entering the market (hopefully), they may once again attempt to manipulate investor sentiment—and it will probably work—but the underlying structural problems will remain until properly addressed.

It’s also worth noting that they’ve resorted to such tactics one too many times. In the most recent financials, they used asset revaluations to offset negatives—to the point where even an airplane was revalued.

In my view, these are the fundamental issues holding Dangote Sugar back—not the fairy tales some people try to sell here.

Locotrader:
Champion Brew has perfected arrangement to use alternate energy (solar system) to drive operations.

This will impact heavily on the bottom line

Take note

Not necessarily. I haven’t heard about it, but let me comment based on the technical aspects. First, the upfront cost will be significant—especially if the solar system is intended to power a brewery. Breweries consume a massive amount of energy; we’re not talking about office spaces here, unless that’s what the solar installation is meant for. The initial investment would likely take at least four years, or even longer, to break even. In other words, the amount they would have spent on other sources of electricity over the next four years will instead be spent upfront on setting up the solar system. As a result, the financial benefits will not be evident until after about four years. Take note.

Agbalowomeri:
Na overhead supply you use one page write
Those are the positions where bulls branch to drink water. Nothing dey happen, overhead supply will always be overcome with enough bull power

Interesting Q2 ahead

So you're now a fan of Oando and Dangote Sugar? Truly, there's nothing the good Lord cannot do.

Level 8 catalyst, my brother — if you spot it, you're good; if you don't, you'll be left behind. Look at Guinness, Nestlé, and the rest — they're only now reacting positively. Do you know how long that took?

You could have taken some profit in other plays and re-entered later if that was the plan. That beats sitting and waiting while deep gets deeper.

Let me explain why stocks like Oando, Dangote Sugar, and others that are structurally underwater (price & technicals) will find it difficult to move upward.

First, the concept of being "underwater" refers to the structural position of the current price relative to where significant trading activity occurred within a given time period. Simply put, many traders who bought at higher prices are now waiting to break even—and they create resistance. When the price reaches their breakeven point, they tend to offload their positions, creating selling pressure.

The only logical way for such stocks to move higher is through a strong catalyst—exceptionally good news that can propel the price beyond this overhead resistance. Some of these stocks have over 80 billion naira worth of volume sitting silently above current levels (more money sitting above than below price over a given period). Breaking through that kind of supply will be tough and take considerable time.

That said, this is my latest interpretation, which contradicts one of my earlier views where I said, "Never buy above the big money." In light of this new understanding, that statement was wrong.

Now, my updated stance is this: buy below the big money only if you see a Level 8 catalyst—something strong enough to drive the price up. Otherwise, it’s best to stay on the sidelines for now.

Sunrisepebble:
Any opinion on Fidson here, from my quick napkin maths its looking like a N45/50 stock based on their Q1 result

That's good, but we actually saw it earlier—someone asked about it here around September 2024. I wasn’t even asked directly, but I chimed in anyway, doing my usual busybody routine. It was around 15 naira then. We predicted 31, while a popular guru predicted 3.3, citing his industry experience.

I don’t enjoy doing fundamental analysis because it’s boring and time-consuming, even though it seems I’m good at it. Lol.

ositadima1:
Let me try my hand at analyzing Fidson. Fidson is a tough one, and there may be hidden notes in the 2023 financial report, but I haven't checked thoroughly.

Fidson's cash flow from operations is about 1.54 billion naira, as reported in the financials, which it almost entirely paid out as dividends of 60 kobo per share. However, capital expenditure was several times the cash flow, at about 4.53 billion naira, which I guess was funded by a 6.7 billion naira increase in borrowings for the year.

Most of this capex comes from capital work in progress (WIP), about 3.3 billion naira. A similar magnitude was also invested in the previous year, 2022. I don't know what they're planning, but maybe they acquired some of GlaxoSmithKline's assets. Since it's WIP, it's not yet operational and has yet to generate revenue.

As I mentioned before, debt increased significantly, but the debt-to-equity ratio was still acceptable at 0.96. I anticipate Fidson generating much more revenue and, consequently, profits when the WIP investments become operational.

I hope a FCFE per share of 1.2 naira will not be too far off. Running the MC simulation with 1.2 would put Fidson's value between 16 and 31 naira. Fidson appears to be undervalued.

Note: The key to Fidson's future performance will likely be how well they can translate their capital investments (the huge capital WIP) into revenue and profit growth.

aj8:
Over priced based on eps. Common sense about N3.30 and still falling . Not the type I like to touch even with my health care background. Time to book whatever profits and let your principle run if you are in love with the stock.

The request

crownprince2017:
Good morning pa Emma, I hope u have not forgotten my request on fidson.

Thanks.

Locotrader:
Now that champion has opened some people eyes,how many units remains with you?
They scared you and took off your gold at peanut.

Those who followed Loco in champion will have their way to N10 soon.

My friend, you can rest now. Anyone who follows you should already be in Champion. Those who aren’t probably either don’t believe in you or simply aren’t interested. All this prolonged marketing doesn’t change that.

STOjo:
I think the case is just like a "half full and half empty cup". People have different experience and principles.
I respect Agbalowomeri's position and I won't argue with him.
He might not be 100% correct, but there is a lot wisdom/experience in his write-ups.
My encouragement is to heed when he speaks and not to argue.

That’s your opinion, and that’s perfectly fine. There is wisdom on all sides—both for and against any point of view. So, I’m free to argue my perspective as I see fit.

If you're trading large volumes and aiming for just 2% to 10% profit after brokerage fees, accesscorp may deliver very soon.

Umehj88:
Brother osita abeg I still dey wait for you. Make I do my DD biko

Bro, this one is based on Fibonacci and is still under construction, so make sure you do your due diligence. The predicted returns are based on the fib using the most recent prices from Friday, the 16th. Personally, if you hit 50%, you should start considering an exit.

Some of the insurance stocks in there—especially Regalins—have low volume (u fit no see enough). On the other hand, Presco and BUA Foods are quite solid for low-risk exposure. I don't have a time target for this; it's up to you, Bro.

Agbalowomeri:
Trust me you will find 100% opportunity every year. Whether you were lucky to grab it is a different thing entirely

Maybe you're exceptionally skilled at finding stocks that return 100%, but that's not necessarily the case for everyone. Advising him to start looking for 100% gainers is like telling someone to start releasing hit songs just because Davido and others make it look easy.

Instead, you could help by actually calling out some of these 100% stocks, so those with X millions—or even billions—can invest annually. Since it's apparently easy for you to spot them.

Agbalowomeri:
Between I am not asking him to change o

Only saying that I admire his energy

LOL, maybe he gets paid from it, so he has to close the account monthly. 2% of 150 million after brokerage fees is 3 million o, no be everybody they see am at month end.

Agbalowomeri:
Not exactly your big capital
But I think it's feasible once in a year or two if you know your game.

People don't know that it's so easy to target one or two stocks that are sure banker for the year. That doesn't mean it will fly immediately you buy but you can give yourself 6-12 months. Sometimes you even hit above 100% if you are patient enough. Sometimes luck can even push it in three months. I have experienced all these scenarios

Me think this is much easier than running after 2-5% when I no do Forex Lol

Anyway the Koko na to make the though as long as it works for you

I know the moniker — he once mentioned his style of trading, I think two or three years ago. People found fault in his system back then, just like you're doing now, and it turned into a long argument, sef.

If he's been doing this successfully for years, so why should he change to your style? Just a humble question.

I think both your method and his have their benefits and risks. For example, in your case, if you choose wrong and the trade moves in the opposite direction — maybe after hitting 51% — you might end up becoming an investor for two years or even go to negative percent. On the other hand, his method seems easier, but a couple of bad trades could significantly reduce his capital.

Anyway, if it works and commissions aren’t too high, I don’t see why change is necessary.

Total Div don land ooo.

Let me tell you the next one — but make sure you clap o, so I go get the confidence to keep talking.

yMcy56:
Thank you too.
Don't sell your PZ in a hurry...
Waiting for result which will be due by ending of this month, PZ is expected to trade above 40.....all things being equal.....only requires patience.
Once this debt to equity conversion is sorted, PZ will trade higher than present price.

ositadima1:
From a TA perspective (Not shown here for proprietary reasons ) and based on probabilistic analysis of past performance, Champion appears to be a good bet. If you can acquire it below 4—or ideally much below 4—there is an 18% chance of a 50% upward move, compared to a 19% chance of a 20% downward move over the next three months. In conclusion, it is likely to move upward.

Una no wan clap for me, abi?

I didn’t just say it would do over 50%, I also said it would happen within 3 months. This post was made in mid-March 2025. MCY56 is my mentor, by the way.