₦airaland Forum

Raider76:
You have made very good and valid points. I believe in my post I said that the proportion of investors hold for dividend is DECREASING, not is SMALL.

If you want an indication of the rapid increase in traders who do rapid trading just look at the rapid growth of Morgan Securities. They came almost from nowhere and now occasionally top the monthly list of Broker performance in terms of VOLUME of trades, as published by the NGX.

https://ngxgroup.com/ngx-download/top-ten-stockbrokers-for-the-week-ended-06-08-2021/?wpdmdl=31061&refresh=611ecd97417691629408663

Now I am sure some may ask for a breakdown of Morgan's clients. I don't have it. But one may take a hint by observing that while they top the Volume list they don't top the Value list.

Most of the so called blue chip, or defensive, stocks are cyclical anyway, not growth stocks. So it shouldn't bother an investor who holds for dividend if there are short term price fluctuations since in the long term their average prices are almost constant, unless there are major externally induced changes. It shouldn't bother a retiree, or pension fund if the price of Nestle, for example, fluctuates between N660 and N1600 in between dividend payouts, so long as when they are cashing out they target the time of the year with the highest prices. On the other hand short term traders feed on those short term fluctuations.

No one underestimates the importance of dividend payments in the markets. Those who trade and do not hold for dividend in no way affect the ability of companies to pay dividend. The two coexist in all markets. It may however be detrimental if regulations are put in place to favor one over the other. Those who do rapid trading currently include both individual investors and some larger fund managers who cater for investors willing to take bigger risks. If you encourage their participation they may bring in a lot of funds to the market, and tailor more innovative trading.

Whether we like it or not younger and more active population is getting involved in the market, and they are favored by rapid advancement in technology. And it will pay us all to accommodate them.

I think the table for the year, half year or quarter would have been more appropriate.


The value of the trade is more important to me than the quantity, you can do 1 billion unit as a Stockbroker which might make you the biggest for the week in terms of quantity sold but might not make the firm the top 20 in terms of value as we can see from this table.


The 1 billion quantity might be penny stocks, growth stocks etc.


Defensive stocks or blue chip stocks are not cyclical. Defensive stocks are matured, have been around for and consistent with profitability and cash flow during recession, boom etc and not seriously affected by the challenges of the economy.

GM motors, Ford are good examples of cyclical stocks, when the economy is good they pay good dividends, when it poor they stop or reduce dividends.

Unlike blue chip or defensive stocks that have been consistent with dividend payments and steady increase in the dividend paid to investors even up to 80 years and above.

Definition of defensive stocks, cyclical and blue chip stocks as obtained from investopedia

Differences between defensive stock and volatile stock

Volatile stocks

Growth stocks can also be volatile

Some of these stockbrokers should consider merging and then engage in innovation.

otokx:
Some of these stockbrokers should consider merging and then engage in innovation.

With almost 300 Stockbroking firms in Nigeria and the top 10 Stockbroking firms in terms of value of transaction controlling almost 70%.

Few years ago when the total value of transaction was N1.3 Trillion, Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers did 15% of the transaction that is N195 billion worth of transaction.

Merger among Stockbroking firms is the best way to save costs

This is a check up on OGG, hope you are good?.

Banks and Insurance companies are not merging too.

emmanuelewumi:
With almost 300 Stockbroking firms in Nigeria and the top 10 Stockbroking firms in terms of value of transaction controlling almost 70%.

Few years ago when the total value of transaction was N1.3 Trillion, Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers did 15% of the transaction that is N195 billion worth of transaction.

Merger among Stockbroking firms is the best way to save costs

There is a mad rush out of Honeywell flour at the open. Possible reverse today.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/33995_UAC__OF_NIGERIA_PLC%20_NOTICES_OF_COURT_ORDER_MEETING_(.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/33996_UAC__OF_NIGERIA_PLC%20SCHEME_OF_ARRANGEMENT_CORPORATE_A.pdf

For those interested in UACN unbundling.

Qualification date is 8th September.
DISCLAIMER: I don already sell mine. Will buy after the unbundling.

ratracerebel:
Let REALITY settle your doubts...and take the right step. We are in a world where everything is taking a new dimension.

Do you want to be left OUT?

If no, go to my SIGNATURE now!

Another scam speculative investment in view.

ositadima1:
Flourmill and/or Seplat look like they will move up soon. What do u think?

Not a fan of Flourmill...
Seplat is still high...
Fair value is btwn 670-700...
We just need to wait if it will come down....

Willie2015:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/33896_MTN_NIGERIA_COMMUNICATIONS_PLC%20MTN_NIGERIA_DIVIDEND_IN.pdf

MTN
Int Div of N4.55 ...
Up by 30 percent from last int div... that's generous
Results also lookin good..
Though with lower Free Cash Flow increase...
When compare with Airtel result...
Hope it can cross the N200 mark....
just like Total ....
after the interim div of N4..
Dis: Hold long position in both MTN & Airtel

MTN failed to deliver...
Did not even make the 52 week High price ...
of N183 .........
Sold 70% of my holding.....
with N10 margin...... plus expected dividend of N4 plus
As.....At at all ...at all... Na in bad pass....
Lookin to pick more Airtel and Presco ...

Qualification to vote is 8 September, qualification for unbundling is 8th November.


quote author=Mpeace post=104987923]https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/33995_UAC__OF_NIGERIA_PLC%20_NOTICES_OF_COURT_ORDER_MEETING_(.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/33996_UAC__OF_NIGERIA_PLC%20SCHEME_OF_ARRANGEMENT_CORPORATE_A.pdf

For those interested in UACN unbundling.

Qualification date is 8th September.
DISCLAIMER: I don already sell mine. Will buy after the unbundling.[/quote]

Willie2015:
MTN failed to deliver...
Did not even make the 52 week High price ...
of N183 .........
Sold 70% of my holding.....
with N10 margin...... plus expected dividend of N4 plus
As.....At at all ...at all... Na in bad pass....
Lookin to pick more Airtel and Presco ...

PATIENCE is a virtue with MTN

looks like dangcem ..dangote cement is a keeper ....

Willie2015:
MTN failed to deliver...
Did not even make the 52 week High price ...
of N183 .........
Sold 70% of my holding.....
with N10 margin...... plus expected dividend of N4 plus
As.....At at all ...at all... Na in bad pass....
Lookin to pick more Airtel and Presco ...

Want to buy more at N160 downwards

Willie2015:
Not a fan of Flourmill...
Seplat is still high...
Fair value is btwn 670-700...
We just need to wait if it will come down....

Given that movement of stocks withing certain industries are correlated - If two or more move the others are very likely to follow.

ositadima1:
Given that movement of stocks withing certain industries are correlated - If two or more move the others are very likely to follow.

Courteville is moving, chams not moving.

maishai:
Na CBN eyes clear last last .............. Favouritism will never be a good economic policy, all this bruhaha coming to lime light because of dwindling FX receipt else it would be swept under the carpet,after all said and done we would still return to status quo.......

I would have loved to know the personalities that are being targeted in all this

Your head is there! The targeted personalities are Abeg and Partricial. They exposed themselves and the Finteh fraud in Nigeria!!!

locodemy:
Courteville is moving, chams not moving.

But the statement said TWO or MORE.
And the later part said VERY LIKELY.
So it didn't use certainty words. And I think his statement has some truth in it

Marketapprentic:
But the statement said TWO or MORE.
And the later part said VERY LIKELY.
So it didn't use certainty words. And I think his statement has some truth in it

He is right but I only gave example of stocks in same sector not responding to his preaching.

We need to find out why one is moving and the other left behind knowing fully well that both move together in the past.

gabscity:
Your head is there! The targeted personalities are Abeg and Partricial. They exposed themselves and the Finteh fraud in Nigeria!!!

Something is not right at the moment.
Let's give them time to finish the digging.

https://www.thecable.ng/cbn-asks-banks-to-block-accounts-of-18-companies

locodemy:
Courteville is moving, chams not moving.

Check d graph below and see that chams may move up soon as well.

The problem is that courtville is being moved without Volume. It did 6% with only 661k valued at 200k.


Edit: the title is incorrect: it is not a monthly return rather an expanding return with respect to d first Date on the chart.

Now check out consumer goods, they have mostly done above 50%. Look at what Honyflour is currently doing, see how it was at per with Flourmill for long.


Edit: the title is incorrect. It is not a monthly return rather an expanding return with respect to d first Date on the chart. Tool lazy to correct d typo.

ositadima1:
Check d graph below and see that chams may move up soon as well.

The problem is that courtville is being moved without Volume. It did 6% with only 661k valued at 200k.

The chart said otherwise but let's see how next week goes.

Courteville has been moving with volume but no value.It moving on it's capitalization capacity.Yesterday volume wasn't encouraging but the 100k rule is helping the ministry.

Lately I have been applying some simple stats to my stock analysis, parameters like mean and standard deviation. Hehe, bollinger bands comes to mind.

Despite the fact that stock prices (also stock returns) are time series, they can be analysed statistically as distribution of values with good predictive success.

I came across a post on tradingview that discussed a few stats terms in very simple language. Read d excerpt below. Enjoy.

Mean:

The first Raw Moment is the Mean. It indicates the central tendency of a distribution. People talk about the Mean a lot in trading when referring to moving averages and mean reversion. But when we talk about the mean in our previous scripts, we are talking about the mean of returns. So when indicators like the Hurst Exponent , Durbin Watson Stats or Variance Ratio Test show negative autocorrelation, which implies mean reversion, the mean we are refering to is the Mean of returns, not the Mean of price. When they target the mean to revert, they shouldn't be targeting the SMA of price. They should target the returns to the mean of returns. People usually use the mean of returns as an expected value of stock returns. They find the average for past performance and using that to get an idea of where the share price might go next.

Variance:

The second Central Moment is the Variance. It indicates the spread of data around the Mean. People usually use Variance or the square root of Variance, which is the standard deviation to measure volatility . They sometimes define risk as the standard deviation of returns. While it may not be a measurement of risk (as we will explain later), it's a decent measurement of volatility . Since it's squared deviation from the Mean (second moment), the value is always positive, and power makes the smaller deviation smaller and the larger deviation larger. We should use sample variance and standard deviation, as I mentioned before. The difference is just divided by n or n -1.

Skewness:

The third Standardized Moment is Skewness. It measures the asymmetry of the distribution. The reason why it's called standardized moments is that it not only raised the deviation to the power of three in the nominator, it divides the standard deviation to the power of three to standardize the value. It's easier to compare the value of skewness with other distributions when it's standardized. The formula I just described is for population skewness. For sample skewness, it has to adjust the degrees of freedom to make it unbiased, which you can see in the code.

When skewness is 0, the distribution is perfectly symmetric. A normal distribution has a skewness of 0. (any symmetric distribution has a skewness of 0). But as you can see from the distribution chart, the returns are not perfectly symmetric. An easy way to know if the distribution is positively skewed (skewed right) or negatively skewed (skewed left) is by looking at its tails.
If extreme values happen more in the left tail, then it's left-skewed (longer left tail).
If the extreme value happens more in the right tail, then it's right-skewed (longer right tail).
A right-skewed distribution means there are more very large positive returns than negative returns in the sample. And left-skewed means there are more very large negative returns than positive returns in the sample.

Returns are more often negatively skewed because the market usually sell-off faster due to panic.

Kurtosis:

The fourth Standardize Moment is Kurtosis . It measures the "tailedness" in the distribution. As I mentioned in the skewness calculation, it also divides the fourth power of deviation by the fourth power of standard deviation to standardize the value. And it requires even more adjustments to degrees of freedom in order to make it unbiased for sample kurtosis .

The kurtosis value we display here is the excess kurtosis. The normal distribution has a kurtosis of 3. The excess kurtosis = kurtosis - 3.
When excess kurtosis is around 0, it has the same tail as normal distribution, and it's called Mesokurtic.
When excess kurtosis > 0, It has a fatter tail than normal distribution, and it's called Leptokurtic. There are more extremely large returns in the tails.
When excess kurtosis < 0. It has a thinner tail than the normal distribution, and it's called platykurtic. There are fewer extremely large returns in the tails.
Kurtosis doesn't have an upper bound, and the most platykurtic distribution is Bernoulli distribution with ex. kurtosis of -2. (even though the least platykurtic distribution kurtosis is -2, you can still get a value lower than -2 when you measure sample kurtosis .)
Kurtosis is sometimes referred to as volatility of volatility . It measures the tail risk or sometimes called kurtosis risk. Because a lot of statistical models assume a normal distribution, and when there's positive kurtosis , then they will underestimate the risk of fat tails. Market returns are usually leptokurtic due to volatility clustering (smaller returns cluster with smaller returns makes a higher peak, and extreme returns clusters make fatter tails). The kurtosis risk cannot be explained by variance or standard deviation because higher moments cannot be explained by lower moments. There can be two data sets with the same variance but different kurtosis . Therefore kurtosis explains more potential risk than the variance.

There's a misconception about kurtosis . Many people think kurtosis measures the peakedness of a distribution. However, this is NOT the case. There are examples of distribution that has a lower peak than normal distribution but has higher kurtosis . In general, kurtosis measures mostly the tail of the distribution. It uses the fourth power in the calculation. Therefore a large value in the tail has much more effect on kurtosis than the small value in the middle.

#Systematic Trader

They gave away some pointers as to how to interprete the stats. Below:

Using Moments For Trend and Mean Reversion Trading:

*Use the autocorrelation testing indicators to confirm trend or mean reversion. Then use log return, mean, and stdev bands to act accordingly.

*Trend trading using mean and variance. When variance/stdev is high, take a trade based on the mean's direction.

*Trend trading using skewness and kurtosis . When kurtosis is significantly positive, it indicates a large risk. But for trend trading strategies, they profit from extreme moves. Take a trade based on the direction of skewness if the kurtosis and skewness are both significant. Profit from extreme values in the direction of skewness.

*Mean reversion strategies using kurtosis . When kurtosis is low, the risk of trading mean reversion is lower.

*Mean reversion strategies using skewness. A positive skewness doesn't always mean bullish and a negative skewness doesn't always mean bearish . It only shows the shape of the distribution in the past. Skewness may sometimes even have a negative correlation with price. There are studies that show buying commodities with the most negative skewness and shorting commodities with the largest positive skewness can be profitable. And it could be applied not only in commodities . This is probably due to people's preference for longing positively-skewed securities. They tend to speculate a large profit from low probabilities. They will be overpricing the large positively-skewed securities and when the market underperforms, their expectation is that it will drop.

Want to view d whole thing including its implementation, program and all? find it here:

https://www. tradingview. com/script/LiQbTD6e-Moments-Mean-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis-pig/

Good stuff!!!

My language of choice is python, hahaha. It's pretty cool. If u want to dabble in quantitative analysis of financial markets in ur free time check out Algovibes on youtube. The guy has some very good introductory tutorials on the subject.


Who knows, you could go on to become the next Jim Simons, founder of Renaissance Technologies.