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Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts - Investment (6567) - Nairaland

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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by DrAwo(m): 5:36pm On Jan 09, 2022
This week on the podcast, we have a wide reaching chat with Mr Kalu Aja, a personal finance/ professional investment educator...

Enjoy the conversation!

https://anchor.fm/value-nigeria/episodes/44--Conventional-Emerging-trends-in-Investing-A-conversation-with-Mr-Kalu-Aja-e1cn7u7

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Foundwealth001: 3:29am On Jan 10, 2022
emmasoft:


It's simple. If you already have a stock/cscs account with a stockbroker, send them a mandate of the quantity you wish to buy or you can do that on the stockbroker online trading platform and buy yourself.

Otherwise you can click the link on my signature to open a stock/cscs account with Investment one stockbrokers for free and you will be able to buy Seplat, Airtel or any stock on the NGX
Always remember to mention in your post that your company charges brokerage commission of 1.35%+, this will serve as CAVEAT to potential investors to think twice before venturing into investment One.

5 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yom2(m): 3:34am On Jan 10, 2022
customstreet:


There is no wahala whatsoever, when u missed this train, u can enter another train. A lot of opportunity abound. But it pains emotionally just as u said when u missed a train with good facilities inside or a First class private jet �����
when a stock jumps 10% after several weeks a of losses we begin to hear its on steroidd
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Smartforexmgr: 4:55am On Jan 10, 2022
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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Nobody: 5:34am On Jan 10, 2022
onegentleguy:


A critical view on how the whole exercise (both the reverse stock split and the rights issue) was planned and it is clear that one of the aim is to ensure there's no sharp deviation in the shareholding STRUCTURE of minority holders.

In retrospect, a rights issue of 2 for 3 immediately proceeding a reverse stock split(RSS) of 1 for 3 means that as an investor, you lose 2/3 of your initial stake (1-1/3) from the RSS and add back (2/3X + X) to that figure from the rights exercise. (where X is your vol post RSS)

To illustrate:
Assuming u hold 90,000 units of WEMA BANK before now...
Then the RSS exercise will reduce your vol/stake to 30,000 [i.e 1/3 x 90,000 or 90,000- (1-1/3)90,000]
While the rights issue takes you back up to 50,000 units [i.e (2/3 x 30,000) + 30,000]
Effectively implying that an investors overall initial stake would decrease by approx 44.4% post execution of both exercise. [(90,000- 50,000/90,000) x 100]

That 44.4% gives a clue of how much premium the share price might need to adjust to ensure that the coys book value remains unchanged.

If we utilize the banks closing price of 72k on the last day of business in 2021 (Dec 31st) which also doubles as the qualification date, a 44.4% premium would imply a price peg of approx N1.16 per share of WEMA BANK.

This is only an extrapolation of the effective price but might well serve as a benchmark or yardstick for weighing in on how risk measures against reward post execution of the proposed exercise.

For clarity, pls NOTE that the N1.16 is NOT the pricing of each share of WEMA factoring in both deal. It should be much higher than that. Think the market price should peg @ N4.6+ or near that figure after both exercise.
That price of N1.16 measures the benchmark of what floor peg I'll be looking to buy post the conclusion of both exercise.
I got some persons sending me messages on this. Pls kindly do well to be guided accordingly.

By inference, paying a premium to that N1.16 price is a No for me... while getting a good % discount from there (better if its near or higher than the value of that 44.4% vol squeeze) post both exercise is a fair enough deal.

WEMA though will do well when all of this is over.
The bank may be looking at pursuing an aggressive organic growth plan via a merger or acquisition.
It's a growth stock.

Short term? Neutral
Mid to long term? Yes... but as I said before, I'd like to see management do a bit more from here.
Q1 and H1 2022 will be KEY!

Enough on WEMA.
Selah

#EDITED

Does it mean they want to bid the stock from seventy something kobo till N1.60?

How did I get this value?

Current share outstanding = 38.58 B
Current share price = 85 kobo
Market capitalization = N32.793 B

Like you explained, reconstruction details of 1 for 3 reduces the shgare outstanding to

New share outstanding = 12.86 B

For market capitalization to remain the same at the final date they embark on it, price needs to increase.

Assume it is now, current price = 0.85 * 3 = N2.55

Market capitalization = 2.55 * 12.86 = N32.793 B

And they are saying they want to raise N40b in a right issue of 2 unit for 3 units held (source
is Nairametrics) .

Since the outstanding units = 12.86 B

Right issues additional unit = 8.57 B
And amount to be raised will be N40 B

So this means that the right issues price will be N4.67.

At this right issue price, no one will want to take his rights because you are holding a reconstructed stock at 2.55 and you are telling existing holders to take up their rights at N4.67.

How can price after reconstruction (at N2.55) have such a huge gap compared to right issues price (at N4.67)? How can this be bridged?

The way it can be bridged is for the current price of the stock before the reconstruction to rise rapidly from the 85kobo till it gets to N1.56 or over.

Why did I say this?

Because at price of N1.56, if you carry out a reconstruction of shares, the new price will settle at N4.68 (i.e. N1.56 * 3).

And after reconstruction, once you set your right issues price at N4.67, existing holders can easily buy since the price post reconstruction and price post rights are almost same.

Note:

From 85 kobo till N1.56 will be 84% gain in the stock.

5 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pluto09(m): 6:45am On Jan 10, 2022
RabbiDoracle:


Does it mean they want to bid the stock from seventy something kobo till N1.60?

How did I get this value?

Current share outstanding = 38.58 B
Current share price = 85 kobo
Market capitalization = N32.793 B

Like you explained, reconstruction details of 1 for 3 reduces the shgare outstanding to

New share outstanding = 12.86 B

For market capitalization to remain the same at the final date they embark on it, price needs to increase.

Assume it is now, current price = 0.85 * 3 = N2.55

Market capitalization = 2.55 * 12.86 = N32.793 B

And they are saying they want to raise N40b in a right issue of 2 unit for 3 units held (source
is Nairametrics) .

Since the outstanding units = 12.86 B

Right issues additional unit = 8.57 B
And amount to be raised will be N40 B

So this means that the right issues price will be N4.67.

At this right issue price, no one will want to take his rights because you are holding a reconstructed stock at 2.55 and you are telling existing holders to take up their rights at N4.67.

How can price after reconstruction (at N2.55) have such a huge gap compared to right issues price (at N4.67)? How can this be bridged?

The way it can be bridged is for the current price of the stock before the reconstruction to rise rapidly from the 85kobo till it gets to N1.56 or over.

Why did I say this?

Because at price of N1.56, if you carry out a reconstruction of shares, the new price will settle at N4.68 (i.e. N1.56 * 3).

And after reconstruction, once you set your right issues price at N4.67, existing holders can easily buy since the price post reconstruction and price post rights are almost same.

Note:

From 85 kobo till N1.56 will be 84% gain in the stock.


Sense will not kill you.
I always enjoy your calculation.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by OBAGADAFFI: 9:50am On Jan 10, 2022
yMcy56:
WEMA BANK
Seems like too much grammar dey worry this bank. smiley

3. Market Maker has been appointed to repurchase reliquished shares.........

We will understand the grammar much better as time goes on........
We may likely witness some manipulations here in coming days....

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34771_WEMA_BANK_PLC%20WEMA_BANK_PLC_%20_DEC_31,_2021_COURT%20ORDE.pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/34772_WEMA_BANK_PLC%20WEMA_BANK_PLC_%20_DEC_31,_2021_EXTRAORDIN.pdf

Oga @Onegentleguy happy new year sir!
More of God's protection, direction, good health and blessings for us all IJN. cool

RabbiDoracle:


Does it mean they want to bid the stock from seventy something kobo till N1.60?

How did I get this value?

Current share outstanding = 38.58 B
Current share price = 85 kobo
Market capitalization = N32.793 B


From 85 kobo till N1.56 will be 84% gain in the stock.


Maybe WEMA will employ a Market Maker to manipulate the price.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sterlingD(m): 10:21am On Jan 10, 2022
OBAGADAFFI:

Maybe WEMA will employ a Market Maker to manipulate the price.
Is Wema Bank to be suspended from trading to effect this and possibly when
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Heishere: 10:46am On Jan 10, 2022
Has Cutix distributed the bonus?
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by gbengafaro1986: 11:06am On Jan 10, 2022
Wahala for who no buy UCAP for 2020, because now entry point is very confusing ...no pull back since 2020 shocked

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by OBAGADAFFI: 11:21am On Jan 10, 2022
sterlingD:

Is Wema Bank to be suspended from trading to effect this and possibly when

Wema will be suspended for reconstruction
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Coolcash1: 11:35am On Jan 10, 2022
Good morning,


Kindly find below links to corporate announcement released to the market:

STUDIO PRESS NIGERIA PLC – DELISTING FROM THE DAILY OFFICIAL LIST OF NIGERIAN EXCHANGE LIMITED
UNION DIAGNOSTIC AND CLINICAL SERVICES PLC – DELISTING FROM THE DAILY OFFICIAL LIST OF NIGERIAN EXCHANGE LIMITED
Kindly click this link for more NGX Corporate disclosures and here of issuer notices



Summary:

STUDIO PRESS NIGERIA PLC – DELISTING FROM THE DAILY OFFICIAL LIST OF NIGERIAN EXCHANGE LIMITED

"Trading License Holders and the investing public are hereby notified that the entire issued share capital of Studio Press Nigeria Plc were delisted from the Daily Official List of Nigerian Exchange Limited today, Friday, 7 January 2022." See more here


UNION DIAGNOSTIC AND CLINICAL SERVICES PLC – DELISTING FROM THE DAILY OFFICIAL LIST OF NIGERIAN EXCHANGE LIMITED

"Trading License Holders and the investing public are hereby notified that the entire issued share capital of Union Diagnostic and Clinical Services Plc were delisted from the Daily Official List of Nigerian Exchange Limited today, Friday, 7 January 2022."
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:41am On Jan 10, 2022
gbengafaro1986:
Wahala for who no buy UCAP for 2020, because now entry point is very confusing ...no pull back since 2020 shocked

In my opinion, even at current price a 50% plus rise before yearend expecially if they increase dividend again is very likely, maybe #1 plus in dividends per share.

To be clear, I didn't study their books, just my deduction from patterns.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sterlingD(m): 11:46am On Jan 10, 2022
gbengafaro1986:
Wahala for who no buy UCAP for 2020, because now entry point is very confusing ...no pull back since 2020 shocked
Honestly
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by robobo: 12:04pm On Jan 10, 2022
ositadima1:


In my opinion, even at current price a 50% plus rise before yearend expecially if they increase dividend again is very likely, maybe #1 plus in dividends per share.

To be clear, I didn't study their books, just my deduction from patterns.

it might be a mixture of bonus and a little dividend increase in other to minimize cash outflow

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Willie2015: 12:04pm On Jan 10, 2022
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7 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 12:21pm On Jan 10, 2022
RabbiDoracle:


Does it mean they want to bid the stock from seventy something kobo till N1.60?

How did I get this value?

Current share outstanding = 38.58 B
Current share price = 85 kobo
Market capitalization = N32.793 B

Like you explained, reconstruction details of 1 for 3 reduces the shgare outstanding to

New share outstanding = 12.86 B

For market capitalization to remain the same at the final date they embark on it, price needs to increase.

Assume it is now, current price = 0.85 * 3 = N2.55

Market capitalization = 2.55 * 12.86 = N32.793 B

And they are saying they want to raise N40b in a right issue of 2 unit for 3 units held (source
is Nairametrics) .

Since the outstanding units = 12.86 B

Right issues additional unit = 8.57 B
And amount to be raised will be N40 B

So this means that the right issues price will be N4.67.

At this right issue price, no one will want to take his rights because you are holding a reconstructed stock at 2.55 and you are telling existing holders to take up their rights at N4.67.

How can price after reconstruction (at N2.55) have such a huge gap compared to right issues price (at N4.67)? How can this be bridged?

The way it can be bridged is for the current price of the stock before the reconstruction to rise rapidly from the 85kobo till it gets to N1.56 or over.

Why did I say this?

Because at price of N1.56, if you carry out a reconstruction of shares, the new price will settle at N4.68 (i.e. N1.56 * 3).

And after reconstruction, once you set your right issues price at N4.67, existing holders can easily buy since the price post reconstruction and price post rights are almost same.

Note:

From 85 kobo till N1.56 will be 84% gain in the stock.


Well done Nwanne.
Great analysis!

I already did this extrapolations before now though. ...which was why I said that I will not be surprise if the equity price should rise from here.
But we need to apply caution bro.
As I always tell folks; Anytime you see a coy embark on a RSS and/or rights issue, the 1st thing to do is to extrapolate the figures in a way that imbibes a proper risk management framework to ensure you do not overpay for the asset before entry... or a strategic exit plan to hedge against potential loss if you are already in.
The objective is to have a TRADE-SETUP that is highly skewed towards a REWARD than a loss.
...that was how the price peg of N1.16 I calculated came about. As I said before, that price measures the benchmark of what floor peg is a worthy buy post the conclusion of both exercise.
For one thing, that N1.16 value mirrors the banks present and TTM earnings potential (NPM, EM, EPS) and asset delivery projection (AER, CGPR, CCC) and better caltures its current yield power (dividend yield, GM, CGY) in view of surrounding risk.
I am sure you got how the figure was derived.

While the N4.6+, which is price post both exercise is feasible (also mentioned it in the post you quoted), is the risk reward peg truly worth considering?
If you were a shareholder, would you align with WEMA bank (ahead of the likes of FIDELITY, FCMB and STERLING) at that rights issue price? Would you even consider it a deserving/worthy price?
What would be the assets yield power at that price? (div yield, potential capital gains yield)

Again, another reason why the equity price may not rise as much to bridge the difference between the N2.55 RSS estimate and the N4.6+ rights issue peg is that the coy may already have a P.E, HNI, or core/foreign investor in place to take up the right, and paying such a premium (circa N4.6+) for them might be a bit on the high side.
Put differently, the bank may not be concerned if and when investors do not take up their rights as long as the shares get reconstructed. wink cheesy grin

The only way I see to this is if one can quickly buy now and exit before the commencement of both exercise.
It is not without risk though. As I told some folks in a private forum, trading on the shares could unexpectedly get suspended at a price that might eventually put one at a loss when it gets relisted post execution of the RSS exercise.
Which is where the N1.16 price I mentioned comes in handy. It's a price that considers (amongst other items mentioned above), the TRUE VALUE of the asset WEMA considering the planned exercise.
So even if one decides to buy now or bought earlier, it might be best to sell at that peg.
From the figures I put out, anything above that price puts one at risk.
To be succinct, WEMA above N1.16 could well be a VALUE TRAP in view of the planned exercise. (both the RSS and the rights issue)

In conclusion, your views clearly makes sense bro, but there is need to be cautiously optimistic.
We already have a clue.
Everyone knows i've always highlighted the value potential in WEMA. (at the time it was selling at sub 55k)
I still believe that WEMA (and STERLING) will do well in the mid to long term.
But in the short term, caution should be our watch word.

Regards.

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56(f): 12:22pm On Jan 10, 2022
Slimdove:
Like me I don't understand the kind of business UCAP is running that is giving them the kind of profit they declare in every quarter as if to say we don't live in the same country and know how difficult it is to run such business.
Aside the businesses mentioned by Obagadaffi, some of these companies also invest in other instruments that generates steady incomes.
Remember they are financial company with lots of top notch financial experts that research the market for them and give them the best advice on investments.

Some of them invest in other good companies too.......example is the case of FBNH that invested in Airtel and HW, which they now opted to sell at huge premium. Who knows maybe FBNH picked Honeywell @ 60k or thereabout self.
Don't be surprised that some of these financial companies and some other ones invest in Crypto/BTC and all those money spinning investments.
International markets are also there.....
Let me stop here....... smiley

Don't mind my amateurish way of looking at various means whereby they can generate fund. Just thinking out of the box. tongue

6 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56(f): 12:28pm On Jan 10, 2022
customstreet:
There is no wahala whatsoever, when u missed this train, u can enter another train. A lot of opportunity abound. But it pains emotionally just as u said when u missed a train with good facilities inside or a First class private jet �����
You're right, no wahala whatsoever........But remember aligning with "Value" and "Growth" stock could be more like it for some investors.

Ask Peter, at various times have I been reminding him of this same UCAP but he said it's expensive, that it will still come down to his N2 junction. Don't know how he wan jump inside the train @11 now..... grin and still likely moving...... tongue



Lol. Just like to whine Peter. grin

My own cost price was 3.42 or something, and I was thinking it was so expensive then,cos it fell back to as low as N1.90 thereafter, but now, it's showing over +240%.
Saw Vitafoam and it was showing +477%!!! I was like, if this volume had been big that time, don't you know how much it will be by now? Na Pa Emma and those long term investor ogas go fit talk the story well. grin

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56(f): 12:32pm On Jan 10, 2022
DANGCEM
Alhaji's boys in market today......
Maybe they're planning another set of share buyback, who knows......
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ojeysky(m): 12:40pm On Jan 10, 2022
yMcy56:
DANGCEM
Alhaji's boys in market today......
Maybe they're planning another set of share buyback, who knows......


Abi na Alhaji needs to be in the news, no b only buafoods go dey news. cool

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Mpeace(m): 12:51pm On Jan 10, 2022
yMcy56:

Aside the businesses mentioned by Obagadaffi, some of these companies also invest in other instruments that generates steady incomes.
Remember they are financial company with lots of top notch financial experts that research the market for them and give them the best advice on investments.

Some of them invest in other good companies too.......example is the case of FBNH that invested in Airtel and HW, which they now opted to sell at huge premium. Who knows maybe FBNH picked Honeywell @ 60k or thereabout self.
Don't be surprised that some of these financial companies and some other ones invest in Crypto/BTC and all those money spinning investments.
International markets are also there.....
Let me stop here....... smiley

Don't mind my amateurish way of looking at various means whereby they can generate fund. Just thinking out of the box. tongue
Do you know if fbnh completed the sale of their stake in airtel and Hw last year? Will it reflect in their result for 2021?
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by OBAGADAFFI: 1:11pm On Jan 10, 2022
AIRTEL @ 1050 shocked shocked shocked
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56(f): 1:15pm On Jan 10, 2022
Mpeace:
Do you know if fbnh completed the sale of their stake in airtel and Hw last year? Will it reflect in their result for 2021?
These things takes processes, don't think it's been concluded, especially that of Honeywell.

AIRTEL AFRICA may fast track the payment since it's company to company deal......depending on if FBNH wants to include it in the FYE result.
Remember release of FYE 2021 will still take some months too, so it may be included if concluded by then.

It may or may not reflect.......but no official doc as to that effect....that I'm aware of yet.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56(f): 2:00pm On Jan 10, 2022
TRANSCORP
This stock too like wahala. smiley
Was trying to behave like say e wan gbe body earlier....touched N1 and moved back to 0.97k........but some accumulations are seriously going on here.

Make the stock do quick and move so Peter can come out from Hilton top. grin
Will be watching out for Tony's moves here, when he's ready....

WEMA
Bargain hunters or is it bargain jijoists on queue here...

JBERGER
Much activities here today....

GTCo: 25.55..
ZEE: 25.45........@25.35, giving space for the boss to pass.....lol. Whosoever is doing this to GTB surely has a mission. Don't mind me o..... I no be analyst. tongue

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by yMcy56(f): 2:23pm On Jan 10, 2022
Did anyone notice that Pre-Market are no longer visible, so also the volumes after 2.20?

Could this be done to prevent manipulations before market starts and before it closes?
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by seyisanya(m): 2:58pm On Jan 10, 2022
yMcy56:
TRANSCORP
This stock too like wahala. smiley
Was trying to behave like say e wan gbe body earlier....touched N1 and moved back to 0.97k........but some accumulations are seriously going on here.

Make the stock do quick and move so Peter can come out from Hilton top. grin
Will be watching out for Tony's moves here, when he's ready....

WEMA
Bargain hunters or is it bargain jijoists on queue here...

JBERGER
Much activities here today....

GTCo: 25.55..
ZEE: 25.45........@25.35, giving space for the boss to pass.....lol. Whosoever is doing this to GTB surely has a mission. Don't mind me o..... I no be analyst
. tongue
Both sold at N25.50 today. GTCO lowest and Zenith highest intraday is N25.50. GTCO don finally lose hin birthright cheesy
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by austinkenneth: 3:43pm On Jan 10, 2022
yMcy56:
TRANSCORP
This stock too like wahala. smiley
Was trying to behave like say e wan gbe body earlier....touched N1 and moved back to 0.97k........but some accumulations are seriously going on here.

Make the stock do quick and move so Peter can come out from Hilton top. grin
Will be watching out for Tony's moves here, when he's ready....

WEMA
Bargain hunters or is it bargain jijoists on queue here...

JBERGER
Much activities here today....

GTCo: 25.55..
ZEE: 25.45........@25.35, giving space for the boss to pass.....lol. Whosoever is doing this to GTB surely has a mission. Don't mind me o..... I no be analyst. tongue

What really is the reason for this decrease in price for GTB? Is there an issue with their results?
Is there a core investor selling off?
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 4:40pm On Jan 10, 2022
grin
Calebbold:


Wahala for who no get UCAP. The stock is currently running on steroids.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by megawealth01: 4:41pm On Jan 10, 2022
grin
Dollarwoman:
I don't think Peter invest in stock, even if he does it should be once in 10 years, he only comes here to put fear and fire into peoples life.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by edwardaigb: 5:28pm On Jan 10, 2022
Heishere:
Has Cutix distributed the bonus?

Yet to receive mine.
Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by arduino: 7:55pm On Jan 10, 2022
yMcy56:
TRANSCORP
This stock too like wahala. smiley
Was trying to behave like say e wan gbe body earlier....touched N1 and moved back to 0.97k........but some accumulations are seriously going on here.

Make the stock do quick and move so Peter can come out from Hilton top. grin
Will be watching out for Tony's moves here, when he's ready....

WEMA
Bargain hunters or is it bargain jijoists on queue here...

JBERGER
Much activities here today....

GTCo: 25.55..
ZEE: 25.45........@25.35, giving space for the boss to pass.....lol. Whosoever is doing this to GTB surely has a mission. Don't mind me o..... I no be analyst. tongue

I see and appreciate una hand work for JBERGER today. Please make una continue like that tomorrow, I just want JBERGER @ N30.
Thank you.

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