Swing states are states that can be won by any party or candidate,they are battleground states and do not give bloc votes.they give marginal votes.in the USA,Florida,Nevada,Colorado etc are examples of swing states while in nigeria most states in the north central are swing states...

Nasarawa: apc/ buhari won here in 2019 for the first time by 8000 votes.even when buhari lost here,he still got 40%.2023 will be no different although apc might still win here narrowly due to the infighting in pdp and tje state exco is loyal to wike.The incumbent gov engr sule will be reelected..labour should get up to 20% here

Kogi: the okun yorubas will join forces with the ebiras to deliver for tinubu while the igalas will vote atiku narrowly..a narrow win for apc will suffice.labour party will get at least 10%

Benue: in 2015 apc won Benue for the first time winning 9 out of 23 LGAs due to bloc votes from zone b..buhari lost in 2019 by 7000 votes inspite of the hatred and outcry against with...with the middle belt looking favourably at the south and not wanting another fulani ruler and with the rev alia tsunami,tinubu should win here narrowly.labour party should get 25% here

Fct: the three major parties will get at least 30% here but it might swing narrowly to labour party.

Bayelsa; this state usually gives buhari his lowest votes.he got less than 5000 in 2015 but surprisingly and miraculously got 117,000 while PDP got 180,000.with the unpopularity of diri and the rise of apc here,apc might just win it or get at lest 45%.obi should get 20%.

Cross river:apc got 30% in 2019 despite not having any elected official.with the governor now in apc and almost all elected officials at the grassroot and the guber cabdidate being very popular and with the back to south movement gaining momentum, it might swing to APC although PDP still has a slight advantage.labour should get 25% here.the party was very popular here between 2011 and 2015.APC will win the guber here

Edo: Edo will swing badly.apc lost the state by 8000 votes in 2019 despite winning more LGAs.with the governor losing the party structure to wike and thinking of defecting and the Dan orbih faction not keen to work for atiku and with the historical affinity of the state to the west,apc should win here narrowly with labour taking second place.PDP will take third. .

Ondo,ekiti,Oyo: these states swung in the past but with tinubu a son of the soil,an omoluabi on the ballot,they might just deliver bloc votes to apc...

Sokoto: buhari lost here in 2007 and struggled to win here in 2019.with tambuwal contesting for senate,atiku might narrowly win here.obi will not see 10% here but the apc guber candidate Ahmed aliyu will win this state..


Kebbi; this would have been a safe state but with sen adamu aliero and sen yahaya joining PDP with many bigwigs,it might swung narrowly to atiku.atiku has a lot of strong loyallists here led by the turakin gwandu kabiru tanimu.obi won't see 5% here even from the Christians in zuru...nasiru idris is the next governor

Kaduna: this state can go either way but apc should have a narrow win here based on the dexterity of el rufai and sani.sani is the next governor

Gombe: it should be safe for tinubu but PDP is growing stronger here and the political grandmaster sen goje is an associate of atiku though in apc.a narrow win for tinubu or atiku will suffice.

Plateau:it is a PDP state normally but the people are tired and weary of the fulani hegemony and attacks.they might just decide to switch to tinubu but PDP still has the advantage while obi should get 10%

Ebonyi:this state will swing heavily but obi should win it with tinubu and atiku tagging along respectively.


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Kyase
Kahal
Frowland
Warriaproko
Oghenaogie
Noethnicity
Cajal
Quotasystem
Ogidigboigbo
Tutudesz
Moferere

I bet the OP doesn't know what is coming. Wait until Obi tsunami hit you before you will learn

When I see the level of poverty and insecurity in Nigeria, I wish and pray we will get it right this time around. We need to tell all our youths to also get involved in voting. Nigeria will be better for it.

Op is a pdp supporter but don't worry u will receive d kind of shock buhari always Express

Abfinest007:
Op is a pdp supporter but don't worry u will receive d kind of shock buhari always Express

If you called that biased guy a PDP supporter then you're new to politics section.

Interesting

Interesting.

This guy is funny . He even include ebonyi to his swing state. Ur political neophyte

frowland:
Interesting.

How

Fahdiga:
I bet the OP doesn't know what is coming. Wait until Obi tsunami hit you before you will learn

I thought you are a PDP fan? Obi tsunami will clear south east and part of ss

Fahdiga:
I bet the OP doesn't know what is coming. Wait until Obi tsunami hit you before you will learn

I hope you will be able to breathe in election night. Peter Pandora Obituary is not in the race at all

garfield1:


I thought you are a PDP fan? Obi tsunami will clear south east and part of ss

Having seen that PDP is not a serious party coupled with the party betraying south east then what do you expect me to do?

naija4life247:


I hope you will be able to breathe in election night. Peter Pandora Obituary is not in the race at all

Peter might beat atiku to second place.peter might clear ss/se,get 30% in west and north central.atiku might end up not winning any region.it is very possible

Fahdiga:
Having seen that PDP is not a serious party coupled with the party betraying south east then what do you expect me to do?

Did I not warn you? The yorubas invested in apc and got rewarded.what is the reward of south east? At least labour party will displace PDP

garfield1:


Did I not warn you? The yorubas invested in apc and got rewarded.what is the reward of south east? At least labour party will displace PDP

I've learnt the hard way. More reason why I am rooting for labour party.

You try but I advice you to wait till vice for PDP is known. Plateau is weary of fulani so they would vote Muslim/Muslim ticket or Peter Obi? Just watch out cos MUSLIM/MUSLIM Ticket might not get 25% on the Plateau/Taraba

garfield1:
Swing states are states that can be won by any party or candidate,they are battleground states and do not give bloc votes.they give marginal votes.in the USA,Florida,Nevada,Colorado etc are examples of swing states while in nigeria most states in the north central are swing states...

Nasarawa: apc/ buhari won here in 2019 for the first time by 8000 votes.even when buhari lost here,he still got 40%.2023 will be no different although apc might still win here narrowly due to the infighting in pdp and tje state exco is loyal to wike.The incumbent gov engr sule will be reelected..labour should get up to 20% here

Kogi: the okun yorubas will join forces with the ebiras to deliver for tinubu while the igalas will vote atiku narrowly..a narrow win for apc will suffice.labour party will get at least 10%

Benue: in 2015 apc won Benue for the first time winning 9 out of 23 LGAs due to bloc votes from zone b..buhari lost in 2019 by 7000 votes inspite of the hatred and outcry against with...with the middle belt looking favourably at the south and not wanting another fulani ruler and with the rev alia tsunami,tinubu should win here narrowly.labour party should get 25% here

Fct: the three major parties will get at least 30% here but it might swing narrowly to labour party.

Bayelsa; this state usually gives buhari his lowest votes.he got less than 5000 in 2015 but surprisingly and miraculously got 117,000 while PDP got 180,000.with the unpopularity of diri and the rise of apc here,apc might just win it or get at lest 45%.obi should get 20%.

Cross river:apc got 30% in 2019 despite not having any elected official.with the governor now in apc and almost all elected officials at the grassroot and the guber cabdidate being very popular and with the back to south movement gaining momentum, it might swing to APC although PDP still has a slight advantage.labour should get 25% here.the party was very popular here between 2011 and 2015.APC will win the guber here

Edo: Edo will swing badly.apc lost the state by 8000 votes in 2019 despite winning more LGAs.with the governor losing the party structure to wike and thinking of defecting and the Dan orbih faction not keen to work for atiku and with the historical affinity of the state to the west,apc should win here narrowly with labour taking second place.PDP will take third. .

Ondo,ekiti,Oyo: these states swung in the past but with tinubu a son of the soil,an omoluabi on the ballot,they might just deliver bloc votes to apc...

Sokoto: buhari lost here in 2007 and struggled to win here in 2019.with tambuwal contesting for senate,atiku might narrowly win here.obi will not see 10% here but the apc guber candidate Ahmed aliyu will win this state..


Kebbi; this would have been a safe state but with sen adamu aliero and sen yahaya joining PDP with many bigwigs,it might swung narrowly to atiku.atiku has a lot of strong loyallists here led by the turakin gwandu kabiru tanimu.obi won't see 5% here even from the Christians in zuru...nasiru idris is the next governor

Kaduna: this state can go either way but apc should have a narrow win here based on the dexterity of el rufai and sani.sani is the next governor

Gombe: it should be safe for tinubu but PDP is growing stronger here and the political grandmaster sen goje is an associate of atiku though in apc.a narrow win for tinubu or atiku will suffice.

Plateau:it is a PDP state normally but the people are tired and weary of the fulani hegemony and attacks.they might just decide to switch to tinubu but PDP still has the advantage while obi should get 10%

Ebonyi:this state will swing heavily but obi should win it with tinubu and atiku tagging along respectively.


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Kyase
Kahal
Frowland
Warriaproko
Oghenaogie
Noethnicity
Cajal
Quotasystem
Ogidigboigbo
Tutudesz
Moferere

I think PDP might clear OYO Plateau And Ebonyi...

Olaoluwa122:
I think PDP might clear OYO Plateau And Ebonyi...

Are you ok? All Yoruba states will go tinubu.things might be difficult for makinde with the entrance of adelabu.for umahi to say ebonyi will not vote labour party shows you that obi is overrunning ebonyi

majole:
You try but I advice you to wait till vice for PDP is known. Plateau is weary of fulani so they would vote Muslim/Muslim ticket or Peter Obi? Just watch out cos MUSLIM/MUSLIM Ticket might not get 25% on the Plateau/Taraba

The worst thing plateau fear is fulani or a core north candidate.everybody knows that tinubu is not a radical Muslim.they will prefer him to atiku.the middle belt forum has already rejected atiku and endorsed apc/labour

Going by your analysis.

I struggle to see the path for Tinubu's victory.

If Tinubu cannot convincingly win Kebbi, Kaduna and Kano. How on earth will he win?

Which kain mumu analysis be this?

APC winning Edo? Did you take loud or Meth?

Even when Adams Oshiomole was governor of Edo, PDP still won Edo in presidential election.

How can APC win Edo?
Even with the recent Edo no be Lagos slogan.

majole:
You try but I advice you to wait till vice for PDP is known. Plateau is weary of fulani so they would vote Muslim/Muslim ticket or Peter Obi? Just watch out cos MUSLIM/MUSLIM Ticket might not get 25% on the Plateau/Taraba

Vice President for APC you mean?

PDP vice Presidential candidate is known already.

Olaoluwa122:
I think PDP might clear OYO Plateau And Ebonyi...

PDP won’t win any state in SW as long as Tinubu is on the ballot.

I still ask,is atiku overrated? Why did he fail to win any state in 2007? Why did he lost his polling unit and ward? Why didnt he clear his state like buhari cleared katsina? Why did he lose northeast to buhari from north west? Why did he get 25% in all northwest states but failed to get 25% in gombe,bauchi,borno or yobe? Why did borno and yobe and gombe give him the lowest votes? His highest vote was from Kaduna which he lost.he won Adamawa and taraba by 40000 votes.why couldn't he win any northern state massively? His bloc votes came from anambra,Enugu and delta.obi won his region for him but atiku couldn't deliver his own region.is atiku overrated?

garfield1:


Are you ok? All Yoruba states will go tinubu.things might be difficult for makinde with the entrance of adelabu.for umahi to say ebonyi will not vote labour party shows you that obi is overrunning ebonyi

The same Oyo state am residing in Seyi will win Oyo state before 5pm on election day...that's how much he is loved...adelabu with the help of former Ajimobi...what did he achieve...shey na now wey he dey mushroom party he wan challenge Seyi...Seyi is the biggest political Actor in OYO state...and his endorsement goes a long way....forget wetin Umahi dey yearn...ebonyi has always vote for P.DP...it will not be different in 2023...Though P.O might get a good showing there...and I see P.DP winning plateau also...if tinubu goes with his Muslim Muslim ticket...and finally...what is with are you okay...??

frowland:


PDP won’t win any state in SW as long as Tinubu is on the ballot.

Not in Oyo.....tinubu is well hated here...if Seyi decide to work for Atiku...Atiku might flip the state...though it might be close..

DontBullshitMe:
Going by your analysis.

I struggle to see the path for Tinubu's victory.

If Tinubu cannot convincingly win Kebbi, Kaduna and Kano. How on earth will he win?

Tinubu will win convincingly in borno,yobe,zamfara and katsina and then then the north central and south west.all he needs is a narrow win in the north.infact,if he loses the north narrowly and wins the sw convincingly while atiku struggles in ss,its all over.

DontBullshitMe:

Vice President for APC you mean?

PDP vice Presidential candidate is known already.

Don't mind that boy

Olaoluwa122:
The same Oyo state am residing in Seyi will win Oyo state before 5pm on election day...that's how much he is loved...adelabu with the help of former Ajimobi...what did he achieve...shey na now wey he dey mushroom party he wan challenge Seyi...Seyi is the biggest political Actor in OYO state...and his endorsement goes a long way....forget wetin Umahi dey yearn...ebonyi has always vote for P.DP...it will not be different in 2023...Though P.O might get a good showing there...and I see P.DP winning plateau also...if tinubu goes with his Muslim Muslim ticket...and finally...what is with are you okay...??

Oga,they may hate tinubu but will vote him.se and ss dont like atiku in 2019 but still voted him because of love for PDP.Oyo dont want another fulani in power...

As for makinde,adelabu and folarin will share Ibadan with him.folarin might win in oke Ogun and ogbomosho.not many people care about Muslim Muslim ticket

garfield1:


The worst thing plateau fear is fulani or a core north candidate.everybody knows that tinubu is not a radical Muslim.they will prefer him to atiku.the middle belt forum has already rejected atiku and endorsed apc/labour

Who is Middlebelt Forum? Keep doing the thinking for us in Plateau. Your narrative must be right_ you can't be wrong Mr. Know all.

sotall:


Which kain mumu analysis be this?

APC winning Edo? Did you take loud or Meth?

Even when Adams Oshiomole was governor of Edo, PDP still won Edo in presidential election.

How can APC win Edo?
Even with the recent Edo no be Lagos slogan.

HE KNOWS BETTER THAN EDO PEOPLE. HIS NARRATIVE IS ALWAYS RIGHT

DontBullshitMe:

Vice President for APC you mean?

PDP vice Presidential candidate is known already.

Exactly APC Vice