garfield1:
I still ask,is atiku overrated? Why did he fail to win any state in 2007? Why did he lost his polling unit and ward? Why didnt he clear his state like buhari cleared katsina? Why did he lose northeast to buhari from north west? Why did he get 25% in all northwest states but failed to get 25% in gombe,bauchi,borno or yobe? Why did borno and yobe and gombe give him the lowest votes? His highest vote was from Kaduna which he lost.he won Adamawa and taraba by 40000 votes.why couldn't he win any northern state massively? His bloc votes came from anambra,Enugu and delta.obi won his region for him but atiku couldn't deliver his own region.is atiku overrated?

guy u sabi analysis abeg

The mistake you guys are making is comparing 2019 election were an incumbent president is running. The narrative is different in 2023.

garfield1:


Peter might beat atiku to second place.peter might clear ss/se,get 30% in west and north central.atiku might end up not winning any region.it is very possible

Your analysis of Cross River shows u are just an arm chair analyst with no proper grape of what is on ground. You are banking on Ayade to give APC votes in this same cross river wey I dey? I keep telling those who care to listen, 2023 will be a shocker. Rigging will be very difficult as a result of electronic transmission. How many votes will APC or pdp buy.

Olaoluwa122:
Not in Oyo.....tinubu is well hated here...if Seyi decide to work for Atiku...Atiku might flip the state...though it might be close..

Lmao.
I'm from Oyo and I can assure you Tinubu would get his highest votes from the SW from Oyo and Osun.
With Tinubu's emergence as APC Candidate, Seyi's second term is shaky .

Who is Seyi in Oyo politics If not for the coalition, no way he would have defeated APC in 2019.
And this coalition has collapsed.

The biggest and most loved politician in Ibadan is Ladoja and he would 100 percent work for Tinubu .

See the way they sharply arranged a title for ganduje . That should show you the extent of Asiwaju's reach .

Tinubu would win Ibadan conveniently, dust PDP in Oke Ogun , Ibarapa , Oyo and Ogbomosho.

Where in Oyo state will Atiku defeat Bola Tinubu

garfield1:


Oga,they may hate tinubu but will vote him.se and ss dont like atiku in 2019 but still voted him because of love for PDP.Oyo dont want another fulani in power...

As for makinde,adelabu and folarin will share Ibadan with him.folarin might win in oke Ogun and ogbomosho.not many people care about Muslim Muslim ticket

Nobody hates Tinubu in Oyo .
Don't listen to that clown.
So Oyo loves Atiku and hate Tinubu..does it even make any sense ?
Peter Obi would come distant 4th in Oyo .

Olaoluwa122:
Toor If you think Seyi will struggle to win Oyo...then you are political novice...folarin wey people hate for ibadan...are u from Ibadan...don't sit somewhere in Abj or Lag and be doing nonsense permutation.....folarin wey rig himself to the APC ticket...and with that all bigwigs of the party don leave the party for him...na hin go beat seyi....I repeat Hatred for tinubu is high here....OYO and Ondo might not be flip by tinubu...

Who are those big wigs
Adelabu would return to APC . He's a Tinubu boy

Olaoluwa122:
Toor If you think Seyi will struggle to win Oyo...then you are political novice...folarin wey people hate for ibadan...are u from Ibadan...don't sit somewhere in Abj or Lag and be doing nonsense permutation.....folarin wey rig himself to the APC ticket...and with that all bigwigs of the party don leave the party for him...na hin go beat seyi....I repeat Hatred for tinubu is high here....OYO and Ondo might not be flip by tinubu...

Stop lying oga.
I be Ib born and bred . I've lived in the city all my life .
Where in Oyo will Atiku beat Tinubu

Olaoluwa122:
Alaye forget...Osun state would be a yardstick to see how tinubu will perform in oyo..

I don't think so even though I strongly believe Oyetola would get a second term .
Ede would vote Adeleke in the governorship for example but APC would overwhelmingly take Ede in the presidential election

Olaoluwa122:
Muslim Muslim ticket...tinubu will struggle to win Ekiti and ondo...That is how islamization agenda of Nigeria is spreading here...

The same reason why you think he might struggle in Ondo and Ekiti is the same reason he'd get his highest votes in Oyo and Osun

majole:


NOTED BRO & I BELIEVE YOUR OPINION ONLY THAT I WANT TO BELIEVE TINUBU LEAST SCORE IN OYO WOULD BE 63% WHILE MAKINDE WOULD WIN RE-ELECTION. FOLARIN IS NOT FROM IBADAN AXIS

Lol
Folarin is an Ibadan boy nah. Stop jonzing bro

Olaoluwa122:
kk sir...If you believe tinubu will win outrightly in Southwest..So Okowo win not deliver block vote in delta..that is some high level of hypocrisy

Delta isn't homogenous

Olaoluwa122:
No sir...PDP his where my interest lies for now...And we in the southwest say no Muslim Muslim ticket...

Lol... Speak for yourself bro

DontBullshitMe:

Whaaaat?? lol

First of all, I agree that majority of Peter Obi's votes will be traditionally anti-APC or perhaps newly registered voters. I don't think same can be said for Kwankwanso though. In Kano's Presidential election in 2019, Buhari won convincingly for Presidential election but governorship election was 50-50 courtesy of Kwankwanso influence in PDP. So, those votes he flipped against APC in Kano governorship election will be his now since he is on ballot running for Presidency against people who are not named Buhari.

Then, your Atiku 45% against Tinubu 40% prediction in the North will be hard/unachievable/unlikely. I still believe Tinubu will win the North because he has several sitting APC governors behind him carefully positioning themselves for 2027 or 2031 as a succesor unlike Atiku that's running on being a Fulani man alone. So maybe the 45% should be for Tinubu and 40% for Atiku.

On Peter Obi's case, don't be surprised if he is convincingly beaten by Atiku in SE, his stronghold. I believe Igbos are smart politically and will not gamble the stake they have in PDP for an Obi's Presidency pipedream. This also applies to SS. You better don't be surprised if Labour Party has a better outing in SW than in SE.

So, no way Tinubu is winning the entire South. SS/SE will not risk voting LP. Trust me.


Ẹgbọn Dayo. You are wrong on this ooh.

I agree with you

Fibonacci88:

Your analysis of Cross River shows u are just an arm chair analyst with no proper grape of what is on ground. You are banking on Ayade to give APC votes in this same cross river wey I dey? I keep telling those who care to listen, 2023 will be a shocker. Rigging will be very difficult as a result of electronic transmission. How many votes will APC or pdp buy.

As many as possible.apc will win crs south and north,pdp will win central

VaginaMiners:

Lmao.
I'm from Oyo and I can assure you Tinubu would get his highest votes from the SW from Oyo and Osun.
With Tinubu's emergence as APC Candidate, Seyi's second term is shaky .

Who is Seyi in Oyo politics If not for the coalition, no way he would have defeated APC in 2019.
And this coalition has collapsed.

The biggest and most loved politician in Ibadan is Ladoja and he would 100 percent work for Tinubu .

See the way they sharply arranged a title for ganduje . That should show you the extent of Asiwaju's reach .

Tinubu would win Ibadan conveniently, dust PDP in Oke Ogun , Ibarapa , Oyo and Ogbomosho.

Where in Oyo state will Atiku defeat Bola Tinubu

Yorubas never de joke when it comes to national politics.
Tinubu may not be a perfect being, who is however? Tinubu has touched more lives in Yoruba race than even Obasanjo.
The closeness of Ogun and Oyo States to Lagos play an important role in bringing needed development to them.
Most Yorubas will vote him because they believed he had political experience through Awolowo's political mentees in Action Group.
For me it is
Tinubu: 70% APC in the West
Others: 30%

garfield1:


What made you think he can win then and why can't you be convinced now?

I travel a lot across SS, SE and SW. I seek people opinions on our leaders.

So far this is what I heard. Tinubu is hardly mentioned in politics outside SW. SE and SS do not recognize Tinubu as a candidate. Some people in SS and SW do but not that loud.

Atiku is very popular in the SE but Peter is drowning his name. His VP made it worse, he might not get a lot votes from SE.

SS is madly in love with Peter Obi but their fear is, will he win. If the momentum continues this way in the SS he will win.

As for Tinubu his image is very bad in SE and SS. He is seen as a regional politician in a national party. What he likely get in SS and SE is the treatment Oshomole got in Edo State.

In SS and SE they see Tinubu as a politician who is trying to steal the state's wealth and take in to Lagos.

misano:


I travel a lot across SS, SE and SW. I seek people opinions on our leaders.

So far this is what I heard. Tinubu is hardly mentioned in politics outside SW. SE and SS do not recognize Tinubu as a candidate. Some people in SS and SW do but not that loud.

Atiku is very popular in the SE but Peter is drowning his name. His VP made it worse, he might not get a lot votes from SE.

SS is madly in love with Peter Obi but their fear is, will he win. If the momentum continues this way in the SS he will win.

As for Tinubu his image is very bad in SE and SS. He is seen as a regional politician in a national party. What he likely get in SS and SE is the treatment Oshomole got in Edo State.

In SS and SE they see Tinubu as a politician who is trying to steal the state's wealth and take in to Lagos.

Don't forget buhari was widely hated in ss/se.from what you have said if obi popularity continues,atiku will end up winning no region

garfield1:


Don't forget buhari was widely hated in ss/se.from what you have said if obi popularity continues,atiku will end up winning no region

Buhari hard a better chance because of Osibanjo. Tinubu with a Muslim-Muslim ticket is a death trap in the SS.

Tinubu Vice is what will help me cage APC's performance in SS. But assuming a Muslim Vice, sorry. Nah 15% at best.

Buying votes will be is only option in SS and it will be very expensive because SS are not loyal like Yorubas. The money to buy vote might enter one APC man's pocket, he will just refuse to share it.

I don't know about Atiku winning in NW and NE or even NC. But as for SS and SE, Atiku's best is SS, he will get votes but if the momentum for Obi continues, he will fail in some SS states like Rivers, Edo and Akwa-Ibom. He will win Delta because of Okowa. He can get a little from Bayelsa and Cross River.

Abfinest007:
Op is a pdp supporter but don't worry u will receive d kind of shock buhari always Express

op you are yet to know "what the time is" no worry its obi o'clock and e go shock you pass kainji dam.

garfield1:


I am from ss so you must understand me too.if he won't get in your Edo,he will get in my cross river

Cross River and Bayelsa will be Tinubu's highest win in SS. It will not be more than 20%.

misano:


Cross River and Bayelsa will be Tinubu's highest win in SS. It will not be more than 20%.

It will.the state gov of crs is in apc.a the chair and councillors are in apc.in bayelsa dont forget apc won that till the courts intervened...
What usually gives votes in presidential elections is not unpopularity or otherwise but what you do on that election day at the field

misano:


Buhari hard a better chance because of Osibanjo. Tinubu with a Muslim-Muslim ticket is a death trap in the SS.

Tinubu Vice is what will help me cage APC's performance in SS. But assuming a Muslim Vice, sorry. Nah 15% at best.

Buying votes will be is only option in SS and it will be very expensive because SS are not loyal like Yorubas. The money to buy vote might enter one APC man's pocket, he will just refuse to share it.

I don't know about Atiku winning in NW and NE or even NC. But as for SS and SE, Atiku's best is SS, he will get votes but if the momentum for Obi continues, he will fail in some SS states like Rivers, Edo and Akwa-Ibom. He will win Delta because of Okowa. He can get a little from Bayelsa and Cross River.

Tinubu is not a foolish man that throws money anyhow he has diehard loyalists everywhere that knows how to disburse funds something atiku doesnt have...if he disburses more money during the election day, use federal might to increase votes and the apc bigwigs stand their ground,it will be hard for pdp. Another factor is the candidate apc fielded in nass elections.they fielded popular candidates and as people are voting for them in the rural areas,they will vote apc in other elections.

The vp won't matter.tinubu tested the waters with a Muslim and there was no outcry so many people won't be bothered.to be serious,in ss we may be xtians but we are liberal

misano:


I travel a lot across SS, SE and SW. I seek people opinions on our leaders.

So far this is what I heard. Tinubu is hardly mentioned in politics outside SW. SE and SS do not recognize Tinubu as a candidate. Some people in SS and SW do but not that loud.

Atiku is very popular in the SE but Peter is drowning his name. His VP made it worse, he might not get a lot votes from SE.

SS is madly in love with Peter Obi but their fear is, will he win. If the momentum continues this way in the SS he will win.

As for Tinubu his image is very bad in SE and SS. He is seen as a regional politician in a national party. What he likely get in SS and SE is the treatment Oshomole got in Edo State.

In SS and SE they see Tinubu as a politician who is trying to steal the state's wealth and take in to Lagos.

This is the perfect analysis regarding southern votes in 2023.


Tinubu can only do well in SW,he has a very bad PR in SE. Most people in the SE would rather vote Buhari than vote Tinubu.


SS remains Atiku's stronghold in the South but his choice of VP is killing the momentum together with the Peter Obi's wave. Atiku still remains favorite in SS because of PDP structure there but anything can happen between now and February.

garfield1:
Swing states are states that can be won by any party or candidate,they are battleground states and do not give bloc votes.they give marginal votes.in the USA,Florida,Nevada,Colorado etc are examples of swing states while in nigeria most states in the north central are swing states...

Nasarawa: apc/ buhari won here in 2019 for the first time by 8000 votes.even when buhari lost here,he still got 40%.2023 will be no different although apc might still win here narrowly due to the infighting in pdp and tje state exco is loyal to wike.The incumbent gov engr sule will be reelected..labour should get up to 20% here

Kogi: the okun yorubas will join forces with the ebiras to deliver for tinubu while the igalas will vote atiku narrowly..a narrow win for apc will suffice.labour party will get at least 10%

Benue: in 2015 apc won Benue for the first time winning 9 out of 23 LGAs due to bloc votes from zone b..buhari lost in 2019 by 7000 votes inspite of the hatred and outcry against with...with the middle belt looking favourably at the south and not wanting another fulani ruler and with the rev alia tsunami,tinubu should win here narrowly.labour party should get 25% here

Fct: the three major parties will get at least 30% here but it might swing narrowly to labour party.

Bayelsa; this state usually gives buhari his lowest votes.he got less than 5000 in 2015 but surprisingly and miraculously got 117,000 while PDP got 180,000.with the unpopularity of diri and the rise of apc here,apc might just win it or get at lest 45%.obi should get 20%.

Cross river:apc got 30% in 2019 despite not having any elected official.with the governor now in apc and almost all elected officials at the grassroot and the guber cabdidate being very popular and with the back to south movement gaining momentum, it might swing to APC although PDP still has a slight advantage.labour should get 25% here.the party was very popular here between 2011 and 2015.APC will win the guber here

Edo: Edo will swing badly.apc lost the state by 8000 votes in 2019 despite winning more LGAs.with the governor losing the party structure to wike and thinking of defecting and the Dan orbih faction not keen to work for atiku and with the historical affinity of the state to the west,apc should win here narrowly with labour taking second place.PDP will take third. .

Ondo,ekiti,Oyo: these states swung in the past but with tinubu a son of the soil,an omoluabi on the ballot,they might just deliver bloc votes to apc...

Sokoto: buhari lost here in 2007 and struggled to win here in 2019.with tambuwal contesting for senate,atiku might narrowly win here.obi will not see 10% here but the apc guber candidate Ahmed aliyu will win this state..


Kebbi; this would have been a safe state but with sen adamu aliero and sen yahaya joining PDP with many bigwigs,it might swung narrowly to atiku.atiku has a lot of strong loyallists here led by the turakin gwandu kabiru tanimu.obi won't see 5% here even from the Christians in zuru...nasiru idris is the next governor

Kaduna: this state can go either way but apc should have a narrow win here based on the dexterity of el rufai and sani.sani is the next governor

Gombe: it should be safe for tinubu but PDP is growing stronger here and the political grandmaster sen goje is an associate of atiku though in apc.a narrow win for tinubu or atiku will suffice.

Plateau:it is a PDP state normally but the people are tired and weary of the fulani hegemony and attacks.they might just decide to switch to tinubu but PDP still has the advantage while obi should get 10%

Ebonyi:this state will swing heavily but obi should win it with tinubu and atiku tagging along respectively.


Mynd44
Lalasticlala
Kyase
Kahal
Frowland
Warriaproko
Oghenaogie
Noethnicity
Cajal
Quotasystem
Ogidigboigbo
Tutudesz
Moferere

Good analysis !!!

olawalepopoola:

Yorubas never de joke when it comes to national politics.
Tinubu may not be a perfect being, who is however? Tinubu has touched more lives in Yoruba race than even Obasanjo.
The closeness of Ogun and Oyo States to Lagos play an important role in bringing needed development to them.
Most Yorubas will vote him because they believed he had political experience through Awolowo's political mentees in Action Group.
For me it is
Tinubu: 70% APC in the West
Others: 30%

Correct

Olaoluwa122:
Remove Edo Edo Ondo plss

See painment... Help me remove am
. Anufia

garfield1:


Yero in Kaduna was never popular.katsina us buhari home state.governor of Niger was useless.dankwambo worked for buhari

Lol you should be a comedian

DontBullshitMe:

If Obi's rising profile gets to a stage where it can upset things for Atiku, don't be shocked if he withdraws from the race. He can cite different reasons and back out to tilt it towards Atiku. Alot can still happen.

For now, Obi will struggle to get 1.5 million votes, win 0 states so he's not a threat for now.

The SE people who felt betrayed by PDP will rather not come out to vote at all than come out to queue and vote Labour Party that CANNOT WIN. Obi will put up a fair fight no doubt but he can't do much.

Did you watch Ekwenremadu's recent interview? Why are PDP SE politicians not decamping to Labour Party in solidarity with Peter Obi?

Am not pro obi but he will get up to 5 million votes

VaginaMiners:

Delta isn't homogenous

It's not homogenous and PdP has been raking 80 to 85% of the delta peoples vote...

VaginaMiners:

The same reason why you think he might struggle in Ondo and Ekiti is the same reason he'd get his highest votes in Oyo and Osun

He will surely win osun with a clear margin...cos he is from there...But Oyo....

VaginaMiners:

Stop lying oga.
I be Ib born and bred . I've lived in the city all my life .
Where in Oyo will Atiku beat Tinubu

Same Here...currently reside in Iwo road...

VaginaMiners:

Lmao.
I'm from Oyo and I can assure you Tinubu would get his highest votes from the SW from Oyo and Osun.
With Tinubu's emergence as APC Candidate, Seyi's second term is shaky .

Who is Seyi in Oyo politics If not for the coalition, no way he would have defeated APC in 2019.
And this coalition has collapsed.

The biggest and most loved politician in Ibadan is Ladoja and he would 100 percent work for Tinubu .

See the way they sharply arranged a title for ganduje . That should show you the extent of Asiwaju's reach .

Tinubu would win Ibadan conveniently, dust PDP in Oke Ogun , Ibarapa , Oyo and Ogbomosho.

Where in Oyo state will Atiku defeat Bola Tinubu

The most love politician in Oyo as of today is not ladoja...it is engineer Oluwaseyi Makinde...An again anybody with a few millions in his account go surely buy a chieftaincy title in ibadan...it is that cheap....Tinubu might struggle in Ibadan...but might win Oyo and Ogbomosho easily...check the voting demographic from 2015 to 2019...