Megabig:


You cannot, you followed the Osun election? All results uploaded directly from the polling unit automatically merges to ward level and sums up with Lga, so you can literally tell from those levels. The only way to rig is at the boot through vote buying, once results are uploaded with results sheets, it’s over when it comes to collation

You forget that some polling units will be unannounced..... where materials will be taken there for serious rigging...


Heard during the last 2019 election, INEC created some units which wasn't known...

the reason why state governors can easily work this things out....

Rigging is very possible at all front....

Bendeco02:

U dey mind those mumu people.... Let's see how borno vote will make tinubu win the election.

Shey them talk say only borno votes will cancel the five eastern states votes.

SE have roughly 10M registered voters, While SS have roughly 12M registered voters. And the so called political genius is neglecting these regions hoping on core north votes. Even north central will vote more for Atiku & Obi, he will get the least votes there.

3 candidates will share core north (NW & NE) votes, if kwakwanso don't eventually step down for any of the candidate.

This is not 2015 when the election was between Northern (APC) vs Southern (PDP) Candidate.

This election will be the toughest election so far.

Registration doesn't matter. What matters is turn out on the day of election. The last Ananmbra election that Soludo won, go and check the turn out. The last Osun state election had 50% turn-out. In the North, turn out is typically over 60%. I hope you realize many registered as a way of getting the voter's card as an additional means of ID?

femisplash:
Other parties don't have youths.. I pity your mumuness.

I can see from your moniker you're my brother. If only you can shun ethnic bigotry and follow the right path...

Tinubu won't deliver. Remember he's not going to be yoruba or lagos president and those who presented a paper for him to sign with conditions before backing him would make Nigeria ungovernable for him if he dares backtracks. Join me in voting obi who has no godfather but means well for Nigeria. If he steps on their toes when dishing out policies, atę gbe ni. But Tinubu can't cos he's part of those who shared our commonwealth with them. Think Nigeria first

post=115285535:
Borno they were making noise isn't upto 3 million registered voters, Anambra is even higher than Borno

U don't know anything, Bornu has more than 3 million voters that already have voters card and don't need to re-register

Abubauchi:
hhhhhhh don't decieve ur self gentle man. Undastand what INEC means the INEC is talking about those who register new from the time the open the registration.not the total number of ppl who registered for the past many years get ur fact well

Go back and study the new and old registered voters

Vistra40:


Don’t you know what the new electoral law says? The results in the polling booths must be uploaded in the BVAS and transmitted to INEC server before leaving the polling unit. As long as the results have already been transmitted, nothing can be done to manipulate the figures again. You gerrit?

That's if things were supposedly working without corruption...

There are polling units that is created mainly for rigging.....

post=115285535:
Borno they were making noise isn't upto 3 million registered voters, Anambra is even higher than Borno

It's actually not about registered voters...it's more of collected PVC and Ultimately, the percentage turnout.

The North always beat the South because of turnouts...they take electioneering process as a serious business..

Whereas, down south, many collected PVC, sadly as a means of identification rather than a voting tool.

It's on election day of all days, Youths will turn empty street into football pitches, husband and wife and the singles will want to take an acclaimed rest as non of them is ready to queue under the sun or rain for some nonsensical Politicians...afterall, they don know who go win..

The above is our excuse and situations on election day in the south...but northers are ready to give it their all on election day.

I hope the south have truly woken up

JASONjnr:

That's if things were supposedly working without corruption...

There are polling units that is created mainly for rigging.....

It can’t work this time with the new electoral law sir! It is BVAS they use in accrediting voters and the device cannot accredit the same person more than once.

Tinubu will not near that Aso rock
.God forbid

Abfinest007:
Obi will do this .obi will do that go out to gather more supporters, support d movement offline n online

How many youths do you know who are not on Social Media?

Personally, I don't know even one!

Offline campaign will target middle aged and old citizens, and guess what?

Their kids and grandkids will do that job easily.

ASUU strike will bite the FG in the ass!

Just watch out for resumption in the election week.

Stay and vote before resuming!

colestephan86:

U don't know anything, Bornu has more than 3 million voters that already have voters card and don't need to re-register

You're wrong add old and new

throwawaywriter:


Registration doesn't matter. What matters is turn out on the day of election. The last Ananmbra election that Soludo won, go and check the turn out. The last Osun state election had 50% turn-out. In the North, turn out is typically over 60%. I hope you realize many registered as a way of getting the voter's card as an additional means of ID?

2021 & 2023 is not the same ... This is matter of presidential candidate from east o.

Hope you're aware that east give bloc votes?

It sure me say S.E will give Obi more votes than what S.W will give tinubu.

Stake on this

Vistra40:


It can’t work this time with the new electoral law sir! It is BVAS they use in accrediting voters and the device cannot accredit the same person more than once.

Did you see the number of registered people on the list? Lagos hits 500k...


Some of the registered people there are ghost....

I did my registration and I can tell you that many people couldn't succeed till the closing date....

Me wer no kon get time to register, wetin go happen to me.

AlwaysPositive:
I hope you know that 45% of this sum are Igbos

Igbos and Edo are two ethnic groups that are politically independent-minded.

40% of the votes are Igbos and only 30% will go to Labourer, the other 10% will be shared among Destroyer and Agbado. I know a lot of Igbos in Lagos who will vote Agbado.

ucheheart:
Block vote sure for Peter Obi in Eastern and southern states. Some states for middle belt and north wey get christians and igbos for the west go still add join.

I wan see how Atiku or Tinubu go take win this election. Make we see the kind magic wey dem go perform.

Yorubas will vote for Peter Obi too

ucheheart:
Block vote sure for Peter Obi in Eastern and southern states. Some states for middle belt and north wey get christians and igbos for the west go still add join.
.
I wan see how Atiku or Tinubu go take win this election. Make we see the kind magic wey dem go perform.

and I don't know the magic idiotic pigs of biafra will use to become president of Nigeria.
no be juju be that.
even me from south south can never allow idiotic pigs to rule over me

I could see Seyi/Deji Tinubu bringing out calculator to find out how much it'd amount to by giving each voter 10k during the election... I just dey laugh here cos they'd be utterly disappointed as people would collect back their stolen money and still not vote them...

colestephan86:

U don't know anything, Bornu has more than 3 million voters that already have voters card and don't need to re-register

Both old Registered voters and new registration, Anambra alone is higher than Borno

Bendeco02:

2021 & 2023 is not the same ...

And you know this how?

If you hear gbosa, will you be able to come out to vote? If you see heavily armed security patrolling around, wouldn't you prefer to stay indoors on the day of election?

People have often said Igbos make up a large percentage of voters in places like Lagos and Abuja and even kaduna, Jos and Kano. Have you ever wondered why the effect is not normally seen in elections? Because many of those Igbos are sensible enough to know that Nigeria is a tribal environment and voting differently from the "natives" can bring them trouble. So many rather stay at home on that day or even travel to their villages.

Also, many such Igbos often live in clusters and as such, they can easily be systematically disenfranchised. All the APC needs is three gunshots in the air and most so called youths will be indoors tails between their legs.

post=115285535:
Borno they were making noise isn't upto 3 million registered voters, Anambra is even higher than Borno

you clearly do not understand how voting works and how elections are won. It is not about how many votes a state has but the lead a party will get in that state. if state A has 1 million votes and the state is split between the 3 parties, say 350, 330 and 320K, then state A and its votes are of no real consequence because state B with only 500k votes where your party controls the state 90% will put you into a huge lead even if you came 3rd in state A. in the example above, despite losing state A by 30k, you are ahead of your closest rival by 370K despite him winning the big state because of small state B because State B (450k-50k) has given you a margin of victory and a lead of 400K votes and your loss in state A is only 30k votes.

Thats why states like Borno where a single party is dominant are important, they will always vote 80-90% APC/PDP and they have 1m votes

No doubt 2023 will be different and no one can predict because the result of the peter Obi phenomenon and surge in user registration has not been tested but if you look at the votes from 2019. You will see that lagos was inconsequential in 2019 despite having a high voter population because the votes were split.

the election will be won (as it has always been) not by the number of voters in a state but by the margin of victory in a state that is what contributes to your eventual victory

APC lost Oyo but the damage to the total was only 30k votes, APC lost ground in lagos but it didnt matter because APC won Borno the contribution to the total was close to 760k votes and the 3rd highest contribuor to the gap over PDP. Wheras PDP cleared the SS and SE, it had had no single state where it had a 500k margin over APC!! That is how elections are won, it is not the absolute number of voters but the margin of victory


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Nigerian_general_election

Very few of the APC controlled strongholds (a state where they control 70% of the votes) are under threat but virtually all the PDP strongholds are under threat of dilution by Obi voters. PDP's 2 best states in 2018 were Enugu and Anambra, they are not going to get the 87 and ^4 percent victories they had in 2019 because of Obi, even if they win, that margin is coming down. What this means is that even if PDP or OBi win these states, their margin of victory will be so low they will need 6 or 7 states just to make up the victory of APC in a state like Borno. Thats why Tinubu picked Shettima as his VP!!

When you understand what I have just said you will understand why Obi's entry to the race has only served to help Tinubu and damaged Atiku. Atiku cannot win any state by a significant margin thanks to Obi, so his victories will be hollow (small margins) and will not contribute much to his cause, like I said he may need 6 or 7 states just to make up the damage in a state like Borno!!!

The problem here is that Atiku can’t even win his NE zone let alone NW and Kwankwaso is not a serious contender and I doubt he will win his state Kano. I’ve said it before and I’m saying it again, OBI and his team should focus more on winning the majority votes in SS and some states in NC, if that is achieved, he is sure matching to Aso Rock next year because as for SE, it’s already on lockdown.

post=115288647:

Dumbo

unless there will be strike during the election, children are bound to be in their various schools, especially federal institutions.

JASONjnr:


Did you see the number of registered people on the list? Lagos hits 500k...


Some of the registered people there are ghost....

I did my registration and I can tell you that many people couldn't succeed till the closing date....

Dude, the more one tries to educate you the more you make it difficult. Go and google the electoral act 2022 and study it very well. I don tire abeg.

P.S: I saw you rooting for obi somewhere. Shouldn’t you be happy with the surge in the voters’ registration? Nawa

North get votes coming!!

[s]

casualobserver:


you clearly do not understand how voting works and how elections are won. It is not about how many votes a state has but the lead a party will get in that state. if state A has 1 million votes and the state is split between the 3 parties, say 380k, 350, and 320K, then state A and its votes are of no real consequence because state B with only 500k votes where your party controls the state 90% will put you into a huge lead even if you came 3rd in state A. in the example above, despite losing state A by 60k, you are ahead of your closest rival by 310K despite him winning the big state because of small state B because State B has given you a margin of victory of 400K votes.

Thats why states like Borno where a party is dominant are important, they will always vote 80-90% APC/PDP and they have 1m votes

No doubt 2023 will be different and no one can predict because the result of the peter Obi phenomenon and surge in user registration has not been tested but if you look at the votes from 2019. You will see that lagos was inconsequential in 2019 despite having a high voter population because the votes were split.

the election will be won (as it has always been) not by the number of voters in a state but by the margin of victory in a state that is what contributes to your eventual victory

APC lost Oyo but the damage to the total was only 30k votes, APC lost ground in lagos but it didnt matter because APC won Borno the contribution to the total was close to 760k votes and the 3rd highest contribuor to the gap over PDP. Wheras PDP cleared the SS and SE, it had had no single state where it had a 500k margin over APC!! That is how elections are won, it is not the absolute number of voters but the margin of victory


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Nigerian_general_election

Very few of the APC controlled strongholds (a state where they control 70% of the votes) are under threat but virtually all the PDP strongholds are under threat of dilution by Obi voters. PDP's 2 best states in 2018 were Enugu and Anambra, they are not going to get the 87 and ^4 percent victories they had in 2019 because of Obi, even if they win, that margin is coming down. What this means is that even if PDP or OBi win these states, their margin of victory will be so low they will need 6 or 7 states just to make up the victory of APC in a state like Borno. Thats why Tinubu picked Shettima as his VP!!

[/s]
Sorry you are wrong

post=115289041:

You're wrong add old and new

The Northern elites cos of politics have shot themselves in the foot by allowing insecurity to thrive, people are displaced and afraid to cluster at a place and that'd cause voting apathy during d elections, thereby giving the South an edge over them numerically

Rochas2023:
Lagos on top

Omo I still the wonder how ebony take pass other SE state, ebony wy Abia pass in population

Ebonyi has more registered new voters because the Monday sit at home was active in their state, unlike Anambra and other states.
However, adding old registered voters with the new one Anambra still tops Ebonyi with like 1 million registered voters.

I have made some visibility study on this election:

First the south east: I can tell you for real 95% will go to Peter Obi. I even spoke to party agents, party chairmen, strong party affiliates; They said when it comes to presidency they know beyond doubt who they’re voting for.

Southern Kaduna, Jos and most Christians, also the people that have been affected in someway in the north(Farmers that were attacked, communities that were destroyed, People that their pain was aided my the military, the killings of Christians most recently the Deborah killing) Peter Obi should expect strange votes from these guys, they are just angry and this is more like an opportunity to avenge their pain. The votes that’ll come from the north for Peter Obi will be astonishing.


South West: I have spoken to a lot of Yoruba folks, friends, colleagues and artisans(Christians/Muslim): They are for anything that isn’t Tinubu or atiku, give them anyone other person they’ll vote. Right now their only other option is peter Obi, and they’re grabbing it with all their strength. There some among these guys that won’t vote rather than vote for Atiku/Tinubu. There are still some that are very loyal to tribe within these guys, there are some that are loyal to the cityboy beyond doubt.

I don’t know about South south or middle belt, I’ll still make my research. The regions I have stated above are the places I can attest to.

I’m an Igbo man that campaigned against Goodluck in 2015, my mum warned me severally but I won her over, sighting the pedigree of Osibanjo. Do I regret campaigning for buhari? Yes, but I’ll possibly do it again if the other option was GEJ. Goodluck was a terrible president. If given the opportunity now, I’ll still campaign against him. To whom more is given more is expected, he was a failure. He was only able to salvage his reputation by peacefully handing over power.

JASONjnr:


You forget that some polling units will be unannounced..... where materials will be taken there for serious rigging...


Heard during the last 2019 election, INEC created some units which wasn't known...

the reason why state governors can easily work this things out....

Rigging is very possible at all front....

Oga give up it's over.You are even using the 2019 elections under the old electoral law.

Any number of voters reported for any polling unit must match with the number of voters electronically accredited.

Funny enough only valid voters in a polling can be accredited.

There is no way out for riggers

Ebubu3:
unless there will be strike during the election, children are bound to be in their various schools, especially federal institutions.

Keep fooling yourself