₦airaland Forum

This OP is a chief urchin, he didn't even know that KOGI, minna, Nasarawa and many other states used to be PDP states until Buhari tsunami, he forgot that people are actually the structure, come next month, we will know owns the structure

PassingShot:
SOUTH SOUTH ZONE
With APC's inroad into the SS region in 2019, scoring hundreds of thousands of votes there for the first time since 1999 and winning the governorship election in Bayelsa before a court gave it to PDP, I expect even a solid performance this time around.

While I believe PDP will win SS region with around 35% of the total votes irrespective of what Wike and his G5 gang chooses to do, I expect APC to score nothing less than 25% in Akwam Ibom and Rivers, 30% in Cross River (an APC state), Delta (strong presence of APC there) and Bayelsa, and 35% in Edo.

I have Obi recording his best performance in SS in Rivers (30%), Edo, Delta, Cross River and Akwa Ibom (25% in each of the states) and 15% in Bayelsa.

I do not expect a strong showing from Kwankwaso in the SS region.

SOUTH WEST ZONE
While SW has been known to be a fluid region when it comes to national politics, I expect Tinubu to sweep the entire region (including OBJ's polling booth) with about 50% of the total votes there. APC can realistically score far more than my projection in the SW but I chose to go with the worst case scenario here.

It is actually funny and laughable that Obi's supporters expect that their candidate will clear 90% of the votes in SE and SS but expect Tinubu not to do same in the SW. The truth is, beyond the social media noise, Tinubu will coast home to victory in every state of the SW.

With further fractions in PDP in Oyo and Ekiti (where the state's EXCO of the party has recently been dissolved). APC's win is even more assured in the region.

Lagos remains the only state that Obi's supporters have significant presence and I expect that the LP will score around 25% of the votes there. Apart from Lagos state, I do not see Obi scoring beyond 15% of the votes in Oyo and possibly Ondo, with not more than 10% for their noise in Ogun and Osun.

hahahaha just the dream,with your fallacy prediction,people like you na the waste millions for bet9ja everybody in edo state even a deaf and blind man combine together knows that obi is getting 98% of the votes in Edo state

Op you are very far from reality.

This prediction was based on 2019 election.

The game of politics have changed in this 2023.

PassingShot:
Na here we go dey dey mop una tears on February 25th.

Na you go shed tears on February 25. Mark today's date.

PassingShot:
Your eyes go clear very soon. Remain only 32 days.

You have just wasted your time writing a load of bunkum....

Even the most rabid Tinubu supporter knows that what you wrote here is not worth the time expended scanning through the jumbled up write+up...

It is becoming very predictable that anytime Tinubu experiences a major meltdown either from his innumerable gaffes or the major desertions now becoming so routine, you guys would concoct a hotchpotch of hogwash to sustain your forlorn, hopeless and futile aspirations...

Ogbeni, Tinubu is condemned to humiliation in this election...

This has to be the most flawed presidential election projection I've seen since this season. @Passingshot obviously still thinks the LP buzz is merely social media noise; he must be amongst those who believe 4 people are sitting in a room shouting Obi Obi

Continue with your Bala Blu analysis. Una eyes go soon clear

Interesting..... 😊😊😊

Yeroba boy wey no get sense

I took my time to study this prediction......seems too cool buh let keeps our fingers crossed 🤞 till the Day

Effect of hard drugs 💊

Written by a retired ballot snatcher

PassingShot:
"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride". Also, it is often said that the worst form of deceit is self deceit. In about 32 days from today, reality will dawn on supporters of paper-weight politicians and they will realize that social media presence or noise does not take anyone to Aso Rock.

Even if you disagree with my political views, the fact that I have done this to near perfection in two previous presidential elections (2015 https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective and 2019 https://www.nairaland.com/4957446/2019-presidential-election-prediction-analysis) deserves some respect. So, I will expect you to reign in your emotions while responding to this thread.

For this year's presidential election slated for February 25th, I have taken the time to diligently predict the outcome of the election. Unlike in the two previous predictions where only the two front runners were seriously considered, I have expanded this year's to four to include Obi's LP and Kwankwaso's NNPP, not because they have a chance of winning it but to massage the ego of supporters of LP's candidate and also to recognize the significant presence of Kwankwaso in some northern states.

This year's projection takes the following factors into consideration:

1. Political Structure: If there is any group of people that hates to hear this term, it is supporters of LP/Obi. Unfortunately for them, no one can win a state or national election without political structure. It is political structure that ensures that you are represented in places that matter. It is structure that makes you have a polling agent in every polling unit across the country. While APC and PDP can boast of this very important factor, LP and NNPP cannot.

2. State Dominance (number of states presently governed by a party): This is closely related to structure but it is much more. A party has a very good chance of wining the presidential election in the state it controls. Even when such party does not win it, it will have a strong showing in the election there. As of today, APC controls 21 of the 36 states of the federation while PDP controls 14 and APGA has 1. This will surely have a significant influence in the presidential election.

3. Strength/Unity of Opposition: Anyone who has followed politics long enough will easily understand that wrestling power from a ruling party at state or federal level requires a strong and united opposition. It was the absence of united opposition that made PDP rule for 16 years despite all their failings of those years. The opposition could not dislodge PDP until they came together to form what is now known as APC which is the ruling party of today. I strongly believe that for APC to lose this election or any future one nationally, it would require all of today's major opposition parties to fuse into one led by credible and trust-worthy leaders in the mould of Buhari (hate him as much as you like, most Nigerians still trust him) and Tinubu (despite your dislike of him, he remains a master strategist). Sadly for the opposition, they have become more fractionalized/fragmented like never before, now splitting their votes of 2019 into LP, NNPP and PDP. Even within PDP, they are further split into G5 that is doing everything possible to frustrate Atiku. It has always been an impossible mission for a fractionalized opposition to dislodges the ruling party, anywhere in the world.

4. Pulse of the Nation: Apart from those who are registered members of PDP and those who are very bitter about the prospect of Tinubu's presidency, majority of Nigerians are in agreement that the presidency should return to the southern part of the country after Buhari's eight years. This is the only sensible thing to do to keep Nigeria one and it is the major reason that the APC governors of northern extraction stood by BAT during the primaries in deference to Ahmed Lawan who was said to have been promoted by some cabal.

5. Strategic Campaining and Political Alignment/Realignment: We have seen how the parties have faired so far with their campaigns. It is self delusion for anyone to think that attendance at campaigns does not count for much in the election. A party that struggles to fill a 5,000 capcity venue cannot expect the same electoral outcome as one that fills 50,000 capacity venues effortlessly in most states of the country, especially in the north where the bulk of the votes are situated. To think otherwise is foolery and delusion. It is APC that has pulled most crowds at their rallies, followed by PDP. It is APC that has held meetings with strategic unions, organizations, captains of industries, etc, than any other party. All of this will not count for nothing during the election.

6. The G5 Factor: Like I stated earlier, the G5 led by Wike of Rivers is a faction in PDP. While I do not believe that their alliance with any of the other candidtaes (outside Atiku) will have a significance impact on the election, remaining neutral or uncommited to Atiku's candidacy boosts Tinubu's chances even more and gives more votes to Obi and possibly Kwankwaso.

NOTE 1: For 2023, I have added 5% to 2019's voters turnout across all states of the federation except the SE region and Lagos where I have added 10% to reflect the social media buzz and enthusiasm of our brothers/sisters from across the River Niger.

Note 2: This prediction/analysis may later be updated if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

From your previous post I can see that you're a strong Apc supporter

Seefinish:
Town Hall ( 2023 election) different from balablu ( other elections)
Nigerians are going to vote personality and not political party

obailala:
This has to be the most flawed presidential election projection I've seen since this season. @Passingshot obviously still thinks the LP buzz is merely social media noise; he must be amongst those who believe 4 people are sitting in a room shouting Obi Obi

Check his previous threads people like you plenty

Weldone for the good job.

This is the longest rubbish ever written on nairaland. I stopped reading after a couple of paragraphs because it became obvious that the op is high on some expired substance.

How some people can sit down to write lengthy trash beats my imagination. I promise you will look back after February 25 and feel sorry for yourself.

Ahh!! Despite this labouring? Just 5 states for LP? Can we now say LP = Labouring Painfully?

Good thing is you gave LP 5 million even with low turnout of 19% you gave south East state. We are getting closer to reality and I expect to see that in your next prediction.

It's not really perfect but it has some elements of reflection of presidential election results.

PassingShot:
NORTH CENTRAL ZONE
For a straight forward analysis, I have included FCT in the NC region.

Against my prediction that PDP would win two states in the NC in 2019, the party won FCT to take their win their to three. The herdsmen issue I believed was largely responsible for PDP's showing in 2019 is no longer a major factor in 2023. Also, the fact that Simon Lalong the sitting governor of Plateau state is APC's PCC DG is making me to give APC an edge in Plateu with a win of 35% of the total votes here.

Generally, I am predicting a win percentage of around 38% for APC across this region. Not much if you ask me. I expect PDP to compete very well here, especially in Benue, Plateu, Nassarawa and FCT. I expect a fierce battle between APC and PDP in Benue especially with a very popular governorship candidate of APC there. As such, I believe Benue can go either the way of PDP or APC.

Obi's strongest showing will be in FCT, Plateu (20% each) and Nassarawa (15%). I expect Kwankwaso to outperform Obi in this region with 18% of the total votes.

NORTH EAST ZONE
In 2019, PDP won Adamawa by 32,188 more votes than APC. I expected the same to happen in this year's election. I could have allocated more votes to Atiku here but for presence of Kwankwaso whom I expect to score around 20% of the votes across the region.

Looking at the margin by which APC beat PDP in Bauchi, Borno, Gombe and Yobe in 2019 (by hundreds of thousands of votes) and considering that APC maintains their dependable governors and footsoldiers their, I expect the party to still be victorous in the NE region this time as well, albeit with a reduced win margin (45% overall of votes) except in Taraba and Adamawa where I predict a PDP win.

I expect Kwankwaso to score between 20% and 25% in the NE while I do not expect Obi to score more than 2% (2 votes in 100) except in Taraba where I have him getting around 15% (15 from 100 votes).

Passingshot should get ready for i.pob attack, the chest beaters.

They hate the truth.

You can't be calling a whole region cow, and the whole country zoo and then expect their votes...no be juju be that

This your useless Prediction will not come to pass.
May God forbide you devil....
You are predicting APC to win, it will not be well with u, fool!!!

PassingShot:
"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride". Also, it is often said that the worst form of deceit is self deceit. In about 32 days from today, reality will dawn on supporters of paper-weight politicians and they will realize that social media presence or noise does not take anyone to Aso Rock.

Even if you disagree with my political views, the fact that I have done this to near perfection in two previous presidential elections (2015 https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective and 2019 https://www.nairaland.com/4957446/2019-presidential-election-prediction-analysis) deserves some respect. So, I will expect you to reign in your emotions while responding to this thread.

For this year's presidential election slated for February 25th, I have taken the time to diligently predict the outcome of the election. Unlike in the two previous predictions where only the two front runners were seriously considered, I have expanded this year's to four to include Obi's LP and Kwankwaso's NNPP, not because they have a chance of winning it but to massage the ego of supporters of LP's candidate and also to recognize the significant presence of Kwankwaso in some northern states.

This year's projection takes the following factors into consideration:

1. Political Structure: If there is any group of people that hates to hear this term, it is supporters of LP/Obi. Unfortunately for them, no one can win a state or national election without political structure. It is political structure that ensures that you are represented in places that matter. It is structure that makes you have a polling agent in every polling unit across the country. While APC and PDP can boast of this very important factor, LP and NNPP cannot.

2. State Dominance (number of states presently governed by a party): This is closely related to structure but it is much more. A party has a very good chance of wining the presidential election in the state it controls. Even when such party does not win it, it will have a strong showing in the election there. As of today, APC controls 21 of the 36 states of the federation while PDP controls 14 and APGA has 1. This will surely have a significant influence in the presidential election.

3. Strength/Unity of Opposition: Anyone who has followed politics long enough will easily understand that wrestling power from a ruling party at state or federal level requires a strong and united opposition. It was the absence of united opposition that made PDP rule for 16 years despite all their failings of those years. The opposition could not dislodge PDP until they came together to form what is now known as APC which is the ruling party of today. I strongly believe that for APC to lose this election or any future one nationally, it would require all of today's major opposition parties to fuse into one led by credible and trust-worthy leaders in the mould of Buhari (hate him as much as you like, most Nigerians still trust him) and Tinubu (despite your dislike of him, he remains a master strategist). Sadly for the opposition, they have become more fractionalized/fragmented like never before, now splitting their votes of 2019 into LP, NNPP and PDP. Even within PDP, they are further split into G5 that is doing everything possible to frustrate Atiku. It has always been an impossible mission for a fractionalized opposition to dislodges the ruling party, anywhere in the world.

4. Pulse of the Nation: Apart from those who are registered members of PDP and those who are very bitter about the prospect of Tinubu's presidency, majority of Nigerians are in agreement that the presidency should return to the southern part of the country after Buhari's eight years. This is the only sensible thing to do to keep Nigeria one and it is the major reason that the APC governors of northern extraction stood by BAT during the primaries in deference to Ahmed Lawan who was said to have been promoted by some cabal.

5. Strategic Campaining and Political Alignment/Realignment: We have seen how the parties have faired so far with their campaigns. It is self delusion for anyone to think that attendance at campaigns does not count for much in the election. A party that struggles to fill a 5,000 capcity venue cannot expect the same electoral outcome as one that fills 50,000 capacity venues effortlessly in most states of the country, especially in the north where the bulk of the votes are situated. To think otherwise is foolery and delusion. It is APC that has pulled most crowds at their rallies, followed by PDP. It is APC that has held meetings with strategic unions, organizations, captains of industries, etc, than any other party. All of this will not count for nothing during the election.

6. The G5 Factor: Like I stated earlier, the G5 led by Wike of Rivers is a faction in PDP. While I do not believe that their alliance with any of the other candidtaes (outside Atiku) will have a significance impact on the election, remaining neutral or uncommited to Atiku's candidacy boosts Tinubu's chances even more and gives more votes to Obi and possibly Kwankwaso.

NOTE 1: For 2023, I have added 5% to 2019's voters turnout across all states of the federation except the SE region and Lagos where I have added 10% to reflect the social media buzz and enthusiasm of our brothers/sisters from across the River Niger.

Note 2: This prediction/analysis may later be updated if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

This guy is a huge joke

If PDP beat LP in Lagos then I'll fully agree online noise is fully useless in Nigeria election

lansile:
Ahh!! Despite this labouring? Just 5 states for LP? Can we now say LP = Labouring Painfully?

Of course, Labouring Painfully.

Even if obi.rodent, the Andrew Liver Salt man, contest as minister of trade, he cannot win, even in the yeaster.n region

Antai123:
This your useless Prediction will not come to pass.
May God forbide you devil....
You are predicting APC to win, it will not be well with u, fool!!!

I talk am. They will soon attack passingshot for saying his mind.

This yeast.ern, egghead, cretin people can't disappoint

PassingShot:
Your eyes go clear very soon. Remain only 32 days.

your analysis are Very faulty... How do u assume LP ll dominate PDP in South East... Just cos obidients are noisemakers... Again PDP has never Lost plateau state in president elections since 99 so it won't happen this time even in sokoto PDP can't win... I think u are just trying to be mild in giving false hopes to labour party faithfuls... In 2003 Ojukwu with APGA couldn't win a single south east state... So labour party won't do magic forget that we have bvas there was bvas in Osun yet labour couldn't get up to 5000 votes in the guber polls... Let's be honest next month APC PDP ll share over 85 percent of the votes while other parties ll get the rest... Labour party try maybe na one state Dem go win... In North Central PDP ll win benue, plateau Abuja... In North East taraba adamawa is sure for them... In South East South South PDP ll dominate all... In South West PDP ll get up 42 percent of votes and can win Oyo and ondo State...

According to this analysis.. APC have won the election...... But you will be shocked to see them disgraced come 2023

You predicted as if Buhari is the candidate of APC.

You don't know what the Northerners are cooking for Tinubu.

You think Northerners will leave Atiku and Kwankwaso for Tinubu?

Stop deceiving yourself my brother.

Nairaland moderators should stop bringing none academic and none scientific predictions rubbish to the homepage.

Cc: Seun

Na wa oo.

Nigerian States (quiz game):
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.nigerianstatequizgame.nigerianstates

MrEverest:
This is the longest rubbish ever written on nairaland. I stopped reading after a couple of paragraphs because it became obvious that the op is high on some expired substance.

How some people can sit down to write lengthy trash beats my imagination. I promise you will look back after February 25 and feel sorry for yourself.

He didn't ask you to read it gremlin.
Always crying blue murder.

Labouring Painfully.