garfield1:


The former voters will vote tinubu

Lol. Wishful thinking. Possible in the NW/sw/ne not obtainable in se/SS probably some parts of north central

Paulheyman:


Again Tinubu can't get up to 25% in Ebonyi LGA judging from those collecting their voters card. The campaign is ongoing in the inec office, everyone there are talking about voting OBI while they wait for their turn to collect their PVC

Self deception

Great

babyfaceafrica:


We should forget garfield1... But belief you because you are what?

You don't need to believe me, just enter bus and go to any inec office at the LGA in Ebonyi. That's enough proof to convince you. No need of sampling opinion

Paulheyman:


You don't need to believe me, just enter bus and go to any inec office at the LGA in Ebonyi. That's enough proof to convince you. No need of sampling opinion

Wait till Feb 25.. No be online mouth or anything. The votes will decide

garfield1:


Self deception

I am currently carrying out census training in the said LGA. Please since you're in Cross river come over to any LGA in Ebonyi and see for yourself, the journey isn't far, you can also try ikwo LGA or even Afikpo

babyfaceafrica:


Wait till Feb 25.. No be online mouth or anything. The votes will decide

I am grateful you want the votes to decide not garfield1 that wants ballot snatching to decide

Paulheyman:


I am currently carrying out census training in the said LGA. Please since you're in Cross river come over to any LGA in Ebonyi and see for yourself, the journey isn't far, you can also try ikwo LGA or even Afikpo

Send tp

Paulheyman:


I am grateful you want the votes to decide not garfield1 that wants ballot snatching to decide

Either he wants it or not, ballot snatching and vote buying is an unfortunate norm in Our election. There is nothing anybody can do about it. There is too much poverty in the land. People will be used!

babyfaceafrica:


Either he wants it or not, ballot snatching and vote buying is an unfortunate norm in Our election. There is nothing anybody can do about it. There is too much poverty in the land. People will be used!

Vote buying in the ne/NW/NC but not se/SS/sw the people are literate enough. Bring money they'll chop it and vote their candidate.

Case study of osun

garfield1:


Send tp

Lol. Cheers brother

Paulheyman:


Vote buying in the ne/NW/NC but not se/SS/sw the people are literate enough. Bring money they'll chop it and vote their candidate.

Case study of osun

Lmao.. Who told you there was no vote buying in Osun?.. Don't worry 25 is around the corner

This Poll is commendable

Peter Obi's chances are bright in this election

Taking into consideration the results of the polls conducted. I can infer the following:
I. Labour Party will do well but will come second or third
II. PDP stronghold is in the NW and NC at the moment and that is a challenge
III. APC has a chance to nip it if they put in more effort, as they showed presence in almost all the Zones. SE is giving better returns than expected.

My Verdict (if this poll is correct and used)
1. APC
2. PDP
3. LP

Paulheyman:


Lol. Cheers brother

Sam egwu will lose his senate seat to nwaebonyi

Obi will win

It is egregious that these guys seem to have excluded results from Rivers state. In the SS picture posted by OP they said they only polled the other 5 SS states

Top 5 states by registered voters:

5. Katsina 3,516,719
4. Rivers 3,537,190
3. Kaduna 4,335,208
2. Kano 5,921,370
1. Lagos 7,060,195

Note that most pollsters expect all these states to be bitterly contested by at least two candidates except one; Rivers state is Obident

garfield1:
This is the best poll so far,close to reality and my worst case scenario.I have always stated that tinubu and atiku will divide ne nw.whoever wins will do so narrowly and the gap will get narrower.obi will fail woefully in ne/nw.tinubu votes here will cancel whatever obi gets in se ss.the only issues in core north is that I believe kwankwaso will poll higher and tinubu will win yobe.
In nc,I calculated that obi or tinubu will win narrowly.they will cancel each other.obi votes in sw is reducing.I predicted that tinubu will beat atiku in se or ss or both or they draw each other.tinubu weakest zone is se and luckily atiku is also weak there.tinubu is getting stronger in ss..

This poll is more or less an expo for tinubu campaign.they know what to do.overall, obi leads by 3% which is too lean a lead and it can be cancelled easily.all apc needs do is more campaign and mobilization, more funding,stifling of lp bases etc

If they didn't poll Rivers state or include the result like the SS image suggests then the poll is useless

wegevv:


If they didn't poll Rivers state or include the result like the SS image suggests then the poll is useless

Rivers won't change much.obi will win followed by jagaban

garfield1:


Rivers won't change much

lol that is just dishonest.

Read the poll again carefully and consider the states excluded. This poll doesn't support your estimates at all. It almost entirely contradicts it

wegevv:


lol that is just dishonest.

Read the poll again carefully and consider the states excluded. This poll doesn't support your estimates at all. It almost entirely contradicts it

It does.almost all ss states were includes except rivers

garfield1:


It does.almost all ss states were includes except rivers

Okay let's check shall we. You have LP and APC level in 2 of the 5 states polled. You have APC destroying LP in Bayelsa. You have LP with marginal leads over APC in the remaining 2 states. Quoted below for clarity as you seem confused today lol

This survey by bantupage polls the same 5 states and has LP crushing APC by a bigger margin than in any of the states you gave to LP. Even your estimate in Rivers lol

You're entitled to your estimate sir but trying to claim that this poll aligns with yours is beyond dishonest lol

garfield1:
Cross river
Apc 35%
Pdp 30%
Lp 35%

Akwa ibom
Apc 30%
Pdp 40%
Lp 30%

Rivers
Apc 28%
Pdp 22%
Lp 50%

Bayelsa
Apc 40%
Pdp 42%
Lp 18%

Delta
Apc 25%
Pdp 40%
Lp 35%

Edo
Apc 35%
Pdp 20%
Lp 45%

wegevv:


Okay let's check shall we. You have LP and APC level in 2 of the 5 states polled. You have APC destroying LP in Bayelsa. You have LP with marginal leads over APC in the remaining 2 states. Quoted below for clarity as you seem confused today lol

This survey by bantupage polls the same 5 states and has LP crushing APC by a bigger margin than in any of the states you gave to LP. Even your estimate in Rivers lol

You're entitled to your estimate sir but trying to claim that this poll aligns with yours is beyond dishonest lol

We have a best case scenario.Bantu is a worst worst case scenario

garfield1:
This is the best poll so far,close to reality and my worst case scenario.I have always stated that tinubu and atiku will divide ne nw.whoever wins will do so narrowly and the gap will get narrower.obi will fail woefully in ne/nw.tinubu votes here will cancel whatever obi gets in se ss.the only issues in core north is that I believe kwankwaso will poll higher and tinubu will win yobe.
In nc,I calculated that obi or tinubu will win narrowly.they will cancel each other.obi votes in sw is reducing.I predicted that tinubu will beat atiku in se or ss or both or they draw each other.tinubu weakest zone is se and luckily atiku is also weak there.tinubu is getting stronger in ss..

This poll is more or less an expo for tinubu campaign.they know what to do.overall, obi leads by 3% which is too lean a lead and it can be cancelled easily.all apc needs do is more campaign and mobilization, more funding,stifling of lp bases etc

If you know what is coming on 25th February 2023, then you will know that Tinubu has no chance.

I wont say more than this.

ojoadeola:
This Poll is commendable

Peter Obi's chances are bright in this election

Taking into consideration the results of the polls conducted. I can infer the following:
I. Labour Party will do well but will come second or third
II. PDP stronghold is in the NW and NC at the moment and that is a challenge
III. APC has a chance to nip it if they put in more effort, as they showed presence in almost all the Zones. SE is giving better returns than expected.

My Verdict (if this poll is correct and used)
1. APC
2. PDP
3. LP

If your verdict makes you sleep well fine.

You will be roundly disappointed this month.

[quote author=N3TRAL post=120538527][b] The best position Pandora can come out of the polls with is second runner up. Go to Anambra and tell them that Obeer will win, they'll be singing it like a song for you that he won't win.

LP= PDP pro max
NNPP = PDP lite

Atiku Alootakar will be cursing Pandora Obeer wherever he is this evening

I live in Anambra.And I know that Obi will win with a very wide margin

BluntTheApostle:



Go and read about scientific polling, and then come back and take a comprehensive lesson from me.


No be today I begin dey conduct research.



For the fact that it is impossible to even carry out a simple random sampling on the voting populace, and not any less difficult with systematic, cluster or stratified sampling, creates a sampling bias.

You are just speaking too much grammar but not fooling anyone. And you also do not have any idea about whom you are reaponding to here.

Random Sampling is at the heart of scientific pooling, and it is good that you mentioned it. That is the most important factor that reduces any statistical bias in any polling. And it was used in this particular polling.

But further, if you took a look at the methodology of the polling here, other factors like weighted sampling was also used. It is as scientific as it goes.

Moreover, the results here generally aligns with the results of other scientific polls done by other bodies, including trends seen over time.

There is no reason to doubt the results except a stronger statistical reason is given. And the reason cannot be the "feeling" of a random chap on Nairaland.

garfield1:


Obi's lead is reducing.it was over 10% in sept Oct.by election eve,it will further reduce.
The undecided voters are mainly in nw/ne/sw and won't go for obi obviously.se ss has the fewest numbers of undecided and undisclosed.obi is leading in se/ss which usually records low turnout and has a small voting population.ipob activities will further reduce it.
I think anap polls will be significant.buhari led pdp by over 10%.

You are right that Obi's lead is reducing and we are seeing that from some other polls too. But that is to be expected as poll numbers usually close up towards the elections.

But my point here is that Obi, who should clearly be the underdog in the race, have been consistently leading the pack since the beginning of the polling. That is absolutely incredible and something that should tell the legacy parties a good lesson if they are smart.

Moreover, whilst we may not know how the "undecides" will eventually vote or even if they will vote at all, most "undecides" if they vote usually do not vote for the party in power (which is why they may not have made up their minds or refusing to say who they will vote yet).

But like i said previously, they may determine the outcome of the elections if they vote cos their numbers are significant.

We will just wait and see

nameo:


You are right that Obi's lead is reducing and we are seeing that from some other polls too. But that is to be expected as poll numbers usually close up towards the elections.

But my point here is that Obi, who should clearly be the underdog in the race, have been consistently leading the pack since the beginning of the polling. That is absolutely incredible and something that should tell the legacy parties a good lesson if they are smart.

Moreover, whilst we may not know how the "undecides" will eventually vote or even if they will vote at all, most "undecides" if they vote usually do not vote for the party in power (which is why they may not have made up their minds or refusing to say who they will vote yet).

But like i said previously, they may determine the outcome of the elections if they vote cos their numbers are significant.

We will just wait and see

Do not deceive yourself.most undecided outside se/ss will not vote obi afterall Lp is not the only opposition party.the only thing that can help obi is if he can ramp up campaigning in ne/nw, try to increase his chances in ss and nc.he needs to spend more,sponsor more independent mobilizers to penetrate the hinterland...if se ss had the voting strength of the north,we would then conclude that obi is the likely winner..
Unfortunately, tinubu is increasing campaign tempo and mobilization in nc,ss

garfield1:


That is what I am saying.becsuse se votes is small,they can have a higher turnout percentage than sw but sw will still record more votes.sw has 18 mil voters,se has 10 mil so you see,you obi has a problem.
In 2015,se votes was 2.6 mil while sw was 4.5.from my calculation,se votes will not exceed 3 million while sw will record at least 5 mil

Yea, but you guys forget something very important: there are actually more SE voters outside the zone than there are voters from other zones outside their zones.

If Igbos choose to vote in this elections, a lot of you will understand why they are not just one of the 3 major ethnic groups in Nigeria but are arguably the most dispersed ethnic group in Nigeria. Once Igbos come out to vote, some of you will realise how very powerful they are in Nigeria

garfield1:


We have a best case scenario.Bantu is a worst worst case scenario

lol sure sir

Here's is their Rivers state "worst case" poll which they decided to exclude from both polls for some reason. Maybe to keep it competitive for you lol

https://twitter.com/BantuPage/status/1615375891655450624

Personally I think Bantupage were so shocked by the poll they decided to leave it out

nameo:


Yea, but you guys forget something very important: there are actually more SE voters outside the zone than there are voters from other zones outside their zones.

If Igbos choose to vote in this elections, a lot of you will understand why they are not just one of the 3 major ethnic groups in Nigeria but are arguably the most dispersed ethnic group in Nigeria. Once Igbos come out to vote, some or you will realise how very powerful they are in Nigeria

Please,let's leave irrelevant talks.obi's highest votes will come from se and their turnout is always low even when mighty ojukwu contested.other tribes too have thousands of voters outside their region so it even itself out.that cliché is stale

garfield1:


Do not deceive yourself.most undecided outside se/ss will not vote obi afterall Lp is not the only opposition party.the only thing that can help obi is if he can ramp up campaigning in ne/nw, try to increase his chances in ss and nc.he needs to spend more,sponsor more independent mobilizers to penetrate the hinterland...if se ss had the voting strength of the north,we would then conclude that obi is the likely winner..
Unfortunately, tinubu is increasing campaign tempo and mobilization in nc,ss

But LP is actually the opposition party in this election. Do you know how effective the APCPDP narrative have been in this campaign. People dont see PDP as the alternative to APC or vice versa, the narrative is that you should vote LP if you dont want to vote APCPDP.

And you are right, just like i said previously, most "undecides" and "undisclosed" usually vote for the OPPOSITION in elections.