OBAGADAFFI:


Most of us didn't offload this stocks since 2020.

What did you buy with your loot

yMcy56:

April 6th is the final qualification Date , will be marked down the next trading day which is 11th April.

** When I was telling Pa Emma to specify earlier, e be like say my own too much.

In another news, I was searching for something and stumbled on the attached in my statement.......for doubting Thomases......
ZENITH picked @10.70 and 10.75 in March 2020......
UCAP 3.24, Fcmb 1.44/1.89, Wapco 8.90/9.10, Jaiz 0.42/0.47k, Transcorp 0.60/0.61k, Fidson 2.45, FBNH @4, etc.....and the Ucap was expensive then cos it went back to around 1.90......
Chai! It is well o
**Imagine if someone had retained the stocks at these prices till inow!

Referring to your last paragraph, imagine if someone had retained the stocks at these prices till now.


The stock market is unpredictable most of the time and it is not possible to consistently get it right predicting the direction of a stock over a period of few months or years, but if it is a quality stock with growing earnings and the price is cheap the investor will create wealth going forward.


An investor or trader can decide the type of money he wants from the market
The type of money are

1. One off money, that will require regular hunting for another opportunity, at times the opportunities are elusive. It can be fun if one gets it right, but not possible to do so consistently.

2. Predictable and growing dividend income that increases over the years eg Zenith paid 70k about 20 years and now pay N3.20k excluding bonus shares over the years, united capital paid 10k about 9 years ago and now paid N1.50k, Okomu Oil paid N1 about 15 year ago and will now pay about N18 excluding bonus shares

3. Combination of one off payments and dividend income. This involves using the loots from speculative trades, to buy long term positions in stocks that can generate predictable and increasing dividend incomes over the years.


People should just stick to the strategy that suits their situations and temperament, the Koko be say after 20 years playing the market one should be able to have a predictable passive investment income that is equivalent to either 3 times of their accommodation/rent/utility expenses or 75% of their annual active income whichever is higher or applicable.

That should be the minimum goal of an investor who is looking for financial independence or early retirement over a period of 2 decades

Taking profits is part of this business of making money. When you are on 100% profit in a stock, what are you waiting for

I bought Dangote CEM at 110 -119 range in 2020, received N16 dividend per share and then sold 90% in 2021 at N220.

I'll add to my position from 240.
Do not let anyone deceive you.

Be wise as serpent, but gentle like a dove.. Matthew 10:16

To add to that. Bought afolabi units of geregu when it listed on NGX at N115 120 range when most here were scared... we all know the story now.. Geregu has almost 3x in my portfolio.

We don chop dividend clean mouth ..
Hopefully, I might sell at 400..

It's not all roses, bought UCAP @2.70 in 2020, sold 90% at 5.30 in 2021 (after dividend)..

UCAP has done 2x from when I sold

emmanuelewumi:




For Dangote cement with a return on equity of 35%, from my chart the price book value should 4 and Price earning ratio should be 11.4.

At a book value of N64, it should sell at N256 at an EPS 22.3 it should sell at N254..

If you give provision of 10% for margin of safety, it will be okay at N230

Please how can I learn from you
I'm interested

Justcul:
It's not all roses, bought UCAP @2.70 in 2020, sold 90% at 5.30 in 2021 (after dividend)..

UCAP has done 2x from when I sold

Investors love to live in a house free of charge and if possible to be paid for living in a house. That is why they average down good stocks that are selling at a discount


United Capital at N2.70 in 2020, the dividends paid in the last 2 years would have paid back the investors capital. From next year the investor will be in united capital rent free and will continue to be for life and be paid for being in United Capital as long as the business is profitable and sustainable, which he can still bequeath to his children

Stan2330:

Please how can I learn from you
I'm interested

There are materials online also read books written by successful investors

emmanuelewumi:



There are materials online also read books written by successful investors

I've read books about investing like intelligent investor, little book of valuation,random walk down wall street, the art of company valuation and financial statements analysis ( this is like a Bible to me)
But I want some one to explain certain things to me. Even if it is via video call

Stan2330:

I've read books about investing like intelligent investor, little book of valuation,random walk down wall street, the art of company valuation and financial statements analysis ( this is like a Bible to me)
But I want some one to explain certain things to me. Even if it is via video call

You are doing well, I have read all the books you listed except "the art of company valuation".


You can read up on Peter Lynch books

Beating the street

One up on Wall Street.



You can ask for explanations on what you have challenges with on NSEMPA.

emmanuelewumi:



You are doing well, I have read all the books you listed except "the art of company valuation".


You can read up on Peter Lynch books

Beating the street

One up on Wall Street.



You can ask for explanations on what you have challenges with on NSEMPA.

One up on wall street looks good and its even available for free on the web in PDF
https://yourknowledgedigest.files./2020/04/one-up-on-wall-street.pdf

Justcul:
Taking profits is part of this business of making money. When you are on 100% profit in a stock, what are you waiting for

I bought Dangote CEM at 110 -119 range in 2020, received N16 dividend per share and then sold 90% in 2021 at N220.

I'll add to my position from 240.
Do not let anyone deceive you.

Be wise as serpent, but gentle like a dove.. Matthew 10:16

Not all the time u book profits. I bought a little above 1million units of zenith during covid at 10.9 to 11.1. Am still holding it because unless something dramatic happens i don't see that price repeating it self. At least it provides a lot in dividends. Same as wapco bought at 9, ucap @ 5 based on pa emma advise. I prefer to hold on to shares bought @ low price especially when they pay dividends

nedu666:


Not all the time u book profits. I bought a little above 1million units of zenith during covid at 10.9 to 11.1. Am still holding it because unless something dramatic happens i don't see that price repeating it self. At least it provides a lot in dividends. Same as wapco bought at 9, ucap @ 5 based on pa emma advise. I prefer to hold on to shares bought @ low price especially when they pay dividends

You can sell when the fundamentals is deteriorating, growth is slowing down or when valuation is unrealistically high by all standards.


A predictable annual dividend of N3 million from Zenith Bank can be deployed into other economic opportunities with growth potentials.

emmanuelewumi:


What did you buy with your loot

WAPCO - %113
UCAP- %304

Others
FBNH-%102
GUINNESS - %142

Since cost has been recoverd through dividends, i see no reason to sell them.

OBAGADAFFI:

WAPCO - %113
UCAP- %304

Others
FBNH-%102
GUINNESS - %142

Since cost has been recoverd through dividends, i see no reason to sell them.

Very good.


Hope you paid your tithe

emmanuelewumi:




Very good.


Hope you paid your tithe

Yes o.

emmanuelewumi:




Very good.


Hope you paid your tithe

I have observed that an increase in the dividend payout ratio usually leads to a positive and significant movement in stock prices. So, estimating favourable fair value for stocks also requires a catalyst such as an increased dividend payout ratio. To justify my thinking, yields above 14% may occasionally appear, but they tend not to last long.

Consider UBA, which has an EPS of #4.8 and a payout ratio of below 20% at #0.9. It is almost clear why its price is not moving in tandem with its performance. After adjusting for risks, UBA should be valued at not less than #20, similar to ZENITHBANK and GTCO.

This undervaluation is not unique to UBA, as there are other stocks experiencing the same issue.

Waiting for a good increase in payout ratio before buying an undervalued stock may be a sound strategy while the fund is earning better returns else where. In the case of UBA, it appears that the stock will remain around its current value until the company raises its payout ratio.

Taking notes

ositadima1:


I have observed that an increase in the dividend payout ratio usually leads to a positive and significant movement in stock prices. So, estimating favourable fair value for stocks also requires a catalyst such as an increased dividend payout ratio. To justify my thinking, yields above 14% may occasionally appear, but they tend not to last long.

Consider UBA, which has an EPS of #4.8 and a payout ratio of below 20% at #0.9. It is almost clear why its price is not moving in tandem with its performance. After adjusting for risks, UBA should be valued at not less than #20, similar to ZENITHBANK and GTCO.

This undervaluation is not unique to UBA, as there are other stocks experiencing the same issue.

Waiting for a good increase in payout ratio before buying an undervalued stock may be a sound strategy while the fund is earning better returns else where. In the case of UBA, it appears that the stock will remain around its current value until the company raises its payout ratio.

Tony Elumelu And UBA To Sell Electricity Firm To Recoup $122 Million Of Debt
April 7, 2023 by The Parroter
The United Bank for Africa Plc, a Nigerian financial institution supported by Tony Elumelu, intends to vend a defaulted electricity firm it acquired two years ago to recover a debt worth $122 million.

The bank foreclosed on Abuja Electricity Distribution Co. in 2021, which supplies electricity to Nigeria’s capital city and surrounding areas, as it was unable to reimburse loans it had taken to procure electricity assets from the Nigerian government as part of a 2013 privatization program.

Nigeria’s power firms have faced difficulties operating the assets they obtained from the government due to the electricity regulator’s approval of low tariffs, inadequate metering, and power theft leading to low revenue collection.

Furthermore, a decrepit national grid transmits only around one-third of the 13,000 megawatts of power produced in Africa’s most populous country.

At the same investor conference, CEO Oliver Alawuba stated that UBA intends to decrease the growth of its loan book this year to decrease the risk of incurring higher loan losses as Nigeria confronts inflation, which increased at its quickest rate in 18 years in February, and probable devaluation of the local currency.

The bank intends to increase its lending by 12.5% this year, down from 21.4% in 2022, while the ratio of non-performing loans to total credit is expected to rise from 3.1% to 4%. According to a filing with the Nigerian stock exchange, UBA’s exposure to Ghana bonds also resulted in losses of 17.3 billion naira due to debt restructuring in that nation.

ositadima1:


I have observed that an increase in the dividend payout ratio usually leads to a positive and significant movement in stock prices. So, estimating favourable fair value for stocks also requires a catalyst such as an increased dividend payout ratio. To justify my thinking, yields above 14% may occasionally appear, but they tend not to last long.

Consider UBA, which has an EPS of #4.8 and a payout ratio of below 20% at #0.9. It is almost clear why its price is not moving in tandem with its performance. After adjusting for risks, UBA should be valued at not less than #20, similar to ZENITHBANK and GTCO.

This undervaluation is not unique to UBA, as there are other stocks experiencing the same issue.

Waiting for a good increase in payout ratio before buying an undervalued stock may be a sound strategy while the fund is earning better returns else where. In the case of UBA, it appears that the stock will remain around its current value until the company raises its payout ratio.

Cash is real and not fake


Increasing dividends show confidence about the future by management.

Some of us doubt the earnings of some of the companies, we only believe the dividends.


But investors should investigate the source of the dividend payments.


Dividend should not be more than the free cash flow, in that case the dividend safety and sustainability is a suspect.

The free cash flow of one of the cement makers is N45 billion but total dividend is almost N100 billion. The company will have to get bank loans in order to pay the dividend. Management can do crazy things in order to defend their stock price, like the way Emefiele tried to defend Naira


I am of the opinion that dividend declared should not be more than 80% of the Free cash flow

emmanuelewumi:




Very good.


Hope you paid your tithe

when will the giant GTB declare their dividend

Chi

Justcul:
never filled or submitted any e-dividend forms for geregu, yet i got my dividend. Bought through Morgan.

You don't need to fill e-dividend mandate forms for all stocks. One mandate per registrar is enough.

Not all registrars. I'm yet to collect my 6k interim for AXA Mansard paid last year December from Datamax despite having a mandate for GTCo

emmanuelewumi:




Cash is real and not fake


Increasing dividends show confidence about the future by management.

Some of us doubt the earnings of some of the companies, we only believe the dividends.


But investors should investigate the source of the dividend payments.


Dividend should not be more than the free cash flow, in that case the dividend safety and sustainability is a suspect.

The free cash flow of one of the cement makers is N45 billion but total dividend is almost N100 billion. The company will have to get bank loans in order to pay the dividend. Management can do crazy things in order to defend their stock price, like the way Emefiele tried to defend Naira


I am of the opinion that dividend declared should not be more than 80% of the Free cash flow

I understand that you believe that Free Cash Flow (FCF) is a more reliable measure of value than Profit After Tax (PAT). I also suspect that PAT can be manipulated by adjusting non-cash items. However, both measures are influenced by accrual accounting as delays in account receivables can be a major issue for both.

While attempting to calculate FCF for UBA, I encountered difficulties because banks include changes in deposits from customers and other banks in their cash from operating activities. Why is this done since deposits are technically not the bank's money?

I wanted to calculate FCF by subtracting CAPEX from cash from operating activities, but apparently banks follow a different method for this calculation. Any Ideas?

What is ur own fair value for UBA?

Oh lord av

ositadima1:


I have observed that an increase in the dividend payout ratio usually leads to a positive and significant movement in stock prices. So, estimating favourable fair value for stocks also requires a catalyst such as an increased dividend payout ratio. To justify my thinking, yields above 14% may occasionally appear, but they tend not to last long.

Consider UBA, which has an EPS of #4.8 and a payout ratio of below 20% at #0.9. It is almost clear why its price is not moving in tandem with its performance. After adjusting for risks, UBA should be valued at not less than #20, similar to ZENITHBANK and GTCO.

This undervaluation is not unique to UBA, as there are other stocks experiencing the same issue.

Waiting for a good increase in payout ratio before buying an undervalued stock may be a sound strategy while the fund is earning better returns else where. In the case of UBA, it appears that the stock will remain around its current value until the company raises its payout ratio.

What other stocks do you see as under valued ?

ositadima1:


I understand that you believe that Free Cash Flow (FCF) is a more reliable measure of value than Profit After Tax (PAT). I also suspect that PAT can be manipulated by adjusting non-cash items. However, both measures are influenced by accrual accounting as delays in account receivables can be a major issue for both.

While attempting to calculate FCF for UBA, I encountered difficulties because banks include changes in deposits from customers and other banks in their cash from operating activities. Why is this done since deposits are technically not the bank's money?

I wanted to calculate FCF by subtracting CAPEX from cash from operating activities, but apparently banks follow a different method for this calculation. Any Ideas?

What is ur own fair value for UBA?

UBA is not on my radar. Can you assist me with the total dividend declared, dividend payout ratio, return on equity and book value of UBA.


That will assist me in giving a guestimate

Mfunkynation:
BUACEM SHELLholdaz...... For those that don't know

Did you say shell holders, ok o, siddon there.
Alhaji Rabiu that his name appeared among the richest billionaire in the world........you think say na child's play. Lol.

The unit cost price for the 5units I left for Registrar palaver was N13.25. I just left it there as souvenir ...
I presume the man will continue to defend the share price sha.

https://nairametrics.com/2023/04/07/forbes-releases-comprehensive-2023-world-billionaire-rankings-as-three-nigerians-dangote-rabiu-adenuga-make-the-list/

nedu666:


Not all the time u book profits. I bought a little above 1million units of zenith during covid at 10.9 to 11.1. Am still holding it because unless something dramatic happens i don't see that price repeating it self. At least it provides a lot in dividends. Same as wapco bought at 9, ucap @ 5 based on pa emma advise. I prefer to hold on to shares bought @ low price especially when they pay dividends

So it is wrong to sell 900,000 units at 27 in 2021, buy it back at 19 in 2022

Do the maths and tell me how many units you would have if you reinvest all..

My point is, you need to be smart with money too..

Habert wigwe always sell access shares at high prices, buys them back at low prices

OBAGADAFFI:
Most of us didn't offload this stocks since 2020.

Twale sir. Na people like you just dey collect free money from NSE.
Long term also have it's advantages if one can get it right o.

Can just imagine if the SEPLAT I picked @312.70 is still there, Nahco @2.06, FIDELITY 1.77, etc. You for never see me here self. Will just be coming to read as a guest too. Lol.
Let me make myself happy at least.

One person don ask me who send me work self. The Ogas wey don belle full.

yMcy56:

Twale sir. Na people like you just dey collect free money from NSE.
Long term also have it's advantages if one can get it right o.

Can just imagine if the SEPLAT I picked @312.70 is still there, Nahco @2.06, FIDELITY 1.77, etc. You for never see me here self. Will just be coming to read as a guest too. Lol. Let me make myself happy at least.

You are the Qween here.

If your have MTN hold it well o o

Please can anybody put me through about underlying asset in currency trading and how to maximize from it in everyday trading.