₦airaland Forum

Mankind2024:
I will say it again and again, Agbalowomeri is a spent analyst. This was how you have been scaring risk averse investors from joining the train of Transcorp, Zenith, GTCO and other equities with your Anticipated bear 🐻 that was killed by the raging bull when the ASI was static at 48k to 50k.
Your tool is outdated, you can never get the ASI @5% below d current level, which is expected 5% volatility, You still cannot call this a bear market.
A sustainable bear must drop the index by at least 20%.
At the declaration 📜 of dividends, the index will rally to 110K.
Your old strategy of Timing the Market would never work in this current dispensation.
Remember to incorporate 2 important factors which all the Timing tools would never addressed.
1. Inflation andCurrency floating
2. ***Local portfolio investors participation in the Market and uncertainty factor in Nigeria economy.
The above negate the effectiveness of your tools.
There would be no major events, other than predicted 5% market volatility (aka gbelo-gbebo)
Advanced Ichimoku strategy, Fibonachi retracement, Elliot wave, ARIMA model and the rest of these tools are currently ineffective and inefficient in NGX.
The best model for now, is follow the insider activities, follow the money bag, follow the speculation until the government provide a definitive solution to our economy woes.

It appears you are now acknowledging economic troubles, as I saw you previously claiming Mr. Tinubu had a masterful plan, supposedly evidenced by the bull in the NGX. If difficulties continue mounting in this manner, Mr. Tinubu may struggle finishing even his first term.

Take to the streets and witness people barely managing; there are limits to tolerance before societal stability frays. Word is the Tinubu administration currently expends more on subsidies than its predecessor did.

Leave my AREMA model alone o, and concentrate on bolstering your own strategy.

Overview of the Nigerian Economy: Attracting FDIs, ASI at 105.722, and Market Capitalization at 57.8 Trillion

https://nairametrics.com/2024/02/21/overview-of-the-nigerian-economy-attracting-fdis-asi-at-105-722-and-market-capitalization-at-57-8-trillion/

Tinubu Admitted To Me He Had No Blueprints On How To Govern Nigeria


https://saharareporters.com/2024/02/20/tinubu-admitted-me-he-had-no-blueprints-how-govern-nigeria-former-apc-campaign-director

Tinubu: We Will Raise $10 Billion To Stabilise Naira, Boost FX Liquidity

https://www.thecable.ng/tinubu-well-raise-10bn-to-stabilise-naira-boost-fx-liquidity/amp

Ding!

Olaide1295:
Is this a joke? Everyone will simply sell of their naira for dollar at 500.
We are unable to sustain 1500/$ but you want 500/$. Everyone will quickly speculate, I’ll sell off all my naira investments and hold dollar cos I know the peg won’t be sustainable.

When its was pegged it wasn't eligible to everyone.

Ideally you need a Form A, M or Q to get it at the official rate

You cannot imagine the magnitude of corruption that goes with pegged exchnage rate. Arbitrage was full in action. Whereas those that have genuine requirement for USD did not get it. I was once a victim, I applied in February 2023 through form A for BTA needed in April 2023, nothing was provided. A friend was expelled from a school in UK because the bank pay his school fees after the deadlines.

Whereas exporter was selling at black market rate and getting USD at pegged rate.

The solution is patriorism from all the citizen either politician or elite or even the poor. No system will work in the midst of corruption.

femu:
When its was pegged it wasn't eligible to everyone.

Ideally you need a Form A, M or Q to get it at the official rate

kalkah:
You cannot imagine the magnitude of corruption that goes with pegged exchnage rate. Arbitrage was full in action. Whereas those that have genuine requirement for USD did not get it. I was once a victim, I applied in February 2023 through form A for BTA needed in April 2023, nothing was provided. A friend was expelled from a school in UK because the bank pay his school fees after the deadlines.

Whereas exporter was selling at black market rate and getting USD at pegged rate.

The solution is patriorism from all the citizen either politician or elite or even the poor. No system will work in the midst of corruption.

I think patriotism lives abroad

Stop thinking...

megawealth01:
I think patriotism lives abroad

Most Nigerians only condemn corruption/nepotism if it doesn't favor them...

I doubt if Nigerians condemn the above when it's in their favor...

I turned a particular age sometimes ago and so I no longer argue online... I just allow people to have their way while I have my peace...

Truth is like pregnancy that's destined to mature... You certainly can't hide it forever...

Happy Nigeria...

owolabi5:
UNION DIAGNOSTICS

They raised ₦1.85 per share from investors in 2007 only to return ₦0.35 per share in 2021 and delist the company from NSE (After investing in choice real estate locations).

A reminder of the danger in stock investing. Apart from mismanagement the company can fail and loose money especially with the head winds in Nigeria.

owolabi5:
Price Control can't work when you are facing acute scarcity of the product. The major problem is we don't have good inflow of dollars. The demand outstrips the supply in multiple folds. Hence wise speculators are filling their wallets to the brim.

The CBN needs to revert back to the so called unorthodox methods it reversed (even add more join) to trim demand.
Pray the government tackles security to enable a prosperous farming season. All this are needed before the mess start reflecting in the stock market with sustained bears as more companies declare more losses than profits.

Laso09:
Fixed exchange rate does not work by fiat, it can only work when the government has a robust reserves to play with and can be easily used to defend the home currency.
For now, our reserves is almost nil and so we don't have the dollar to defend the naira.
I don't think we have a choice than floating the naira, thought it is very unfortunate that speculators have hijacked the whole process and make it messy.

I don't envy tinubu and cardoso at this point.
It is a tough one.

Cardoso needs to revert back to the so called unorthodox methods he reversed and even add more join. Ban rice import etc. Even ban jeep importation etc join

BabsO2:
Cardoso needs to revert back to the so called unorthodox methods he reversed and even add more join. Ban rice import etc. Even ban jeep importation etc join

essentialone:
Why will the peg not be sustainable?

A more sustainable managed floating peg is looking like N1,500 and it needs to be supported with a couple of prohibited items for forex to curtail demand while encouraging local production of things like rice and palm oil production etc for export. As it appears too much money was printed in prior years, not under-pinned by production.

Perhaps a stability like that of the Korean currency like that seen from the spike of Jannuary 1998 of 1,750 stabilizing to about 1,300 over two decades as seen in the picture below can be replicated.

KarlTom:


https://nairametrics.com/2024/02/20/pz-cussons-warns-shareholders-liquidation-or-asset-sale-possible-without-delisting-approval/

we know their type, they delist then miraculously start turning profitable.

KarlTom:

Ony for a while till improved security for example is established.

PZ says it is ready to issue new equity, convert debt into equity, launch rights issues, sell off assets, or undertake similar actions. Anything at all, just to generate the necessary funds it needs to be a going concern. The implications of such measures for existing shareholders could be severe, potentially leading to significant dilution of their shares or other impacts that would adversely affect their holdings. 😮 PZedians, over to you ooo. As expected, PZ on Full Offer at N24.60 hahahaha

BabsO2:
A more sustainable managed floating peg is looking like N1,500 and it needs to be supported with a couple of prohibited items for forex to curtail demand while encouraging local production of things like rice and palm oil production etc for export. As it appears too much money was printed in prior years, not under-pinned by production.

Perhaps a stability like that of the Korean currency like that seen from the spike of Jannuary 1998 of 1,750 stabilizing to about 1,300 over two decades as seen in the picture below can be replicated.

This dispensation since Jonathan's era yearned for free float , doubt the managed floating idea will float ( no pun intended) in their sounding board room. Another area where CBN/ MOFI/NISA/ minning ministry can look into will be bolstering our gold reserves, like a quasi-gold standard backing -> This is more medium to long term though. Ghana can at least be useful for once as a neighbour in gold transaction between government agencies or whatever legal modalities available while we also get certain percentage or royalties or tax converted into reserve from our current local gold minning firms at fair pricing.

This will work, the challenge is i am not sure any of our political leaders are willing to lose their life for gold backed or quasi gold-backed currency.

essentialone:
PZ says it is ready to issue new equity, convert debt into equity, launch rights issues, sell off assets, or undertake similar actions. Anything at all, just to generate the necessary funds it needs to be a going concern. The implications of such measures for existing shareholders could be severe, potentially leading to significant dilution of their shares or other impacts that would adversely affect their holdings. 😮 PZedians, over to you ooo. As expected, PZ on Full Offer at N24.60 hahahaha

Disclaimer: i am exposed to PZ, but rational. Interesting the change in tone from delisting as only option to fx woes to now right issues and the likes. Ye Ye dey smell (In Anikulapo-kuti's words).

The concern of dilution is the least of one's worry (caveat: speaking from the perspective of a long term player) , it will be chalked to another round of pricing like venture capitalist do in seed rounds through IPO. The board unintelligently looking for easy way out to repatriate funds. Interesting to see PZ has crazy chokehold on this sector with little to no competition in its space by it's peers.

essentialone:
PZ says it is ready to issue new equity, convert debt into equity, launch rights issues, sell off assets, or undertake similar actions...

It's easy for someone to have sensed that something is not right from the way PZ has been trading on the floor before now......
N23 was announced as exit price......just for the price to keep going up to N39 or thereabout.
It's greed that would have kept some people inside it before this RI/Asset sales announcement again......
Na to say make Una dey pray make dem see the 23 pay una self.

Make una no vex o. Maybe I looked at it from my own angle. Someone like me,whatever will make me to wait for exit payment go get strong reason.
PZ holders must have thought they'll up the payout again....

FBNH on bid...#28.70

Meanwhile, SUGAR and SALT met at same price junction earlier.....intra-day.....@61

Both now parting ways again.........
SUGAR @64+ intra-day
SALT @60....

I think SUGAR is cheaper when we compared the two ahead of the Merger.....

The merger just putting people in suspense anyhow....let them do something about it soonest jorr.....the waiting is becoming frustrating.
*Bargain hunters won't like this*

BabsO2:
Ony for a while till improved security for example is established.

Buy when everyone's selling.
Sell when everyone's buying

This FBNH matter is very intriguing...

Princkez:
FBNH on bid...#28.70

Largely correct!
Due diligence is needed though.
Sometimes the reverse is the case...

WantsandMore:
Buy when everyone's selling.
Sell when everyone's buying

yMcy56:
Meanwhile, SUGAR and SALT met at same price junction earlier.....intra-day.....@61

Both now parting ways again.........
SUGAR @64+ intra-day
SALT @60....

I think SUGAR is cheaper when we compared the two ahead of the Merger.....

The merger just putting people in suspense anyhow....let them do something about it soonest jorr.....the waiting is becoming frustrating.
*Bargain hunters won't like this*

Sista Mercy You forgot to add OANDO on full offer at #11.05k


BARGAIN HUNTERS TAKE NOTE!

Boshins:
https://nairametrics.com/2024/02/21/naira-value-binance-confirms-placing-limit-on-usdt-ngn-trading/

Boom, way to go, binance and other crypto currency exchanges need to start fixing the daily price limit according to the official exchange rate, if they can't then they should be banned from Nigeria alongside every other crypto site, the speculation is to much, even BDC guy will check binance before giving you a rate.

ttmax09:
Boom, way to go, binance and other crypto currency exchanges need to start fixing the daily price limit according to the official exchange rate, if they can't then they should be banned from Nigeria alongside every other crypto site, the speculation is to much, even BDC guy will check binance before giving you a rate.

Una dey talk anyhow....is Binance the problem of Naira

Okay now that they fixed the max sell price, Naira would drop to $1-NGN120

stcool:
Una dey talk anyhow....is Binance the problem of Naira

Okay now that they fixed the max sell price, Naira would drop to $1-NGN120

What you don't know, you don't know. Binance quickly acted to prevent issues with the government when they already started talking about a potential ban.

KarlTom:
Largely correct!
Due diligence is needed though.
Sometimes the reverse is the case...

you're right. If an investment tumbles down to floor price & they still want to stay & fight, I'm buying