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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West (8037 Views)
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Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by mrmetoo1: 4:02pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
maestroferddi: You've totally convinced me I'm not objective. I'm not objective because I'm not objective?? **mind blown** Dude no one is saying he should disagree with everything all I'm saying is, he's not saying anything new. He's going against someone that has a track record while he doesn't. In short Agbaje wants to use Lagos for training meanwhile we have someone that's going to hit the ground running 2 Likes |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by donfineboi: 4:10pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
Lagos state will be a 65% APC 35PDP Ogun state will be a 70% APC 35%PDP Oyo state will be a 75% APC 25%PDP Ekiti state will be a 40% APC 60%PDP Ondo state will be a 40% APC 60% PDP Osun will be a 80% APC 20%PDP The yorubas are the most enlightened voters in the whole of the federation. Its going to be really hard for non PDP states to woo voters since they lack huge financial purses. Ekiti and ondo govts wont mind emptying their treasuries to woo voters within their states. Other southwestern states with llittle or no PDP influence will vote according to the wind of change blowing across the nation. Lagos state consists of more yorubas than non yorubas and a sizable number of the non yorubas(enlightened ones) knows the country is going on a wrong path. Its very impossible for PDP to win the southwest on a free and fair basis. 1 Like |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by gabriel212: 4:15pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
maestroferddi:So that is how you people had been deceiving gej of a second term victory? wait till FEBUHARI 15 and you will understand. |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by sanmibukunmi: 4:28pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
All this Flawed predictions sef.....what makes u think Governors in south west influence vote? Four years ago ppl in Ogun voted Amosun but together, D̶̲̥̅̊ε̲̣̣̣̥γ̲̣̣̥ voted Gej en mass, Lagos voted Fashola but still went for Jona in federal votes...gone are those days wen parties play factors ppl will vote not for party but for whom D̶̲̥̅̊ε̲̣̣̣̥γ̲̣̣̥ think will do it.see omisore had a good showing in osun but let me bet it with you he Jona won't get upto 10% votes dere.same tin in Ekiti and ondo....people are wise they know that politics is beyond parties its about what they want and whom D̶̲̥̅̊ε̲̣̣̣̥γ̲̣̣̥ love..... 1 Like |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by laimo(m): 4:34pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
WisdomFlakes:Me too. 1 Like |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by politifact: 4:44pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
maestroferddi:your analysis shows you know nothing about south west politics |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 4:50pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
mrmetoo1:You are funny, aren't you. What exactly do you mean by track record? From facts on ground, Mr Ambode spent some 27 years in the civil service culminating as the state's former Accountant-General while Mr Agbaje has decades of experience as an entrepreneur in the private sector. So what sayest thou? |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Dereformer(m): 4:51pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
ddazz: Guy, you will be disappointed. 2 Likes |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 4:52pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
politifact:Let us hear what you know. |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 4:56pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
donfineboi:At least you are objective enough, unlike most others, to agree that the PDP would definitely carry the day in Ekiti and Ondo States. As for others, you would soon begin to get a clearer picture... |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by mrmetoo1: 4:56pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
maestroferddi: Agbaje owns a pharmacist. Ambode reduced Lagos' dependence on oil. Lagos' IGR jumped under his watch. He owns a consultancy company, where he works with private and government organizations. So he has relevant experience both private and government. If we do a side by side comparison of A+ and Jk, A+ will beat Jk hands-down. 1 Like |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by olapluto(m): 5:32pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
maestroferddi:As a resident of Oyo state, I read your analysis and was shaking my head. PDP is pseudo-dead in Oyo state. If you go on Youtube to watch Jonathan's campaign at Mapo hall, you will see what I mean. The movers and shakers of Oyo Politics as of today were all absent. PDP in Oyo state is as good as dead. Am glad you actually did not include the PDP guber candidate in your analysis. How GEJ will fare in Oyo state...poorly. Objective analysis: 1. The votes in Oyo state can be broadly split into Ibadan, Oyo and Oke Ogun. Oyo town and Oke Ogun, including the 7 Ibarapa are most likely going to vote en masse for Buhari. Oke Ogun can be likened to Iwo in terms of religion, with a culture similar to that of the North. The fact that GEJ played religious card all through will make it hard for him to get 20% of Oke Ogun votes. Oyo and Saki axis will be for BUhari. Ibadan is the GEJ's only hope of any few votes he will get. I think GEJ will do very well to get anything above 30% of Oyo state votes. In Osun, GEJ will not get up to 20%. 3 Likes |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 6:00pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
olapluto:Your points are well noted. However, politics is nothing without the inherent opacity. The expected horse-trading and grandstanding would come into play. Simplistic submissions hardly last the distance... |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by olapluto(m): 6:06pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
maestroferddi:Exactly why you're being called out for your simplistic assumptions. The fact that FFK is Yoruba doesnt mean he influences a single Yoruba man. 2 Likes |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by owo(m): 6:07pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
Dare to be a Nigerian If you support PDP, you are paid to do so and apparently a thief; But if you support APC, you are a patriot who is fighting for Nigeria. If an APC governor award a km of road for N1.2billion, he is prudent and God sent; If a PDP governor award same km of road for N500million, he is a thief. If Fani Kayode joins PDP, he is bastard; If Atiku joins APC, he is a democrat. If Jonathan spends N7billion for his office par year, he is a criminal; If Fashola spend same amount in a year, he is a saint. If Akpabio approves N200Million as pension, he must be stoned; If Fashola approved N300million for Tinubu he is a change agent. If you cancelled toll gate as PDP government, you are an enemy of progress; But if you build a road in Lagos, with tax payers money and till the road, you are genius. If you increase school feed as PDP government, you must be crucified; If you do same as APC government, there must be a reason, cuz Education is not cheap anywhere in the world. If you share Okada to the poor as PDP, you are poor peoples enemy; If you ban Okada after election as an APC government, you are only helping the poor to stay alive, so you mean well. If you single handedly make your daughter a market woman leader in APC state, it is for the progress of the people; But if your wife is made a permanent secretary in your state by your state government of PDP, you are a greedy fellow. If you spend N16billion on electricity without power and then support APC, you a navigator; If you raise N500million through unbundling of same power, you are clueless. If you fail to pay your workers for a month, but in APC, it is not your fault but someone up there; But if you failed to pay your worker for a month and still in PDP, you are wicked human being. If you force your family, in-law and girlfriends as senators and lawmakers on the rest of the party members, you a progressive leader; But if you act like you don't care in PDP, you are dullard If you tried to get a third term fraudulently by bribing the legislatures but failed, then support APC, you are democrat and the father of the nation; If you try to get a constitutional second term in PDP, without their blessings, you an ingrate and silly. In their time we had Halliburton scandal, ID card scandal, Siemens scandal, we have subsidy scam scandal, we have national stadium contract scandal, we have health budget financial scam, aviation sector scam, we had power sector scandal. How many people did he jail to prove he fought corruption? Rather EFCC was his big stick against his perceived enemies. In their time we had a sitting governor kidnapped by a thug working for the president. We had a whole region of the country rigged in favor of his party. Morris Ibekwe, a wanted international fraud star won election under PDP. Those who stole Nigerians blind under PDP; Atiku, Obasanjo, Baraje, Saraki, Wammako, Kwankwaso, Amaechi, Oyinlola, Segun Oni, Okorocha, Ngige, Adeleke, El Rufai, etc, are today the same people financing APC and calling for "CHANGE". Flashback to 1999, who were these people? Billionaires ? They where nobody. Today, they spend billions and no one dare to ask a question. If you do you are enemy of progress. They started with "New PDP" when that didn't fly, they joined a cult group called ACN to become APC. Same character with different name. Sometimes it is better not to be a Nigerian than to be a confused and ignorant one. Credit: KnightsTemplar 4 Likes |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 6:08pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
mrmetoo1:I will not go partisan as you are clearly doing. What exactly do you mean by the assertion that Ambode reduced Lagos dependence on oil? Was Ambode doubling as the Commissioners for Finance and that of Budget and Economic Planning as well as the Accountant General? Were you implying that because of Ambode's ingenuity, Lagos stopped collecting Abuja allocations? Agbaje can argue that he was an employer of labour via his pharmaceutical concern. |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 6:14pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
olapluto:You have to be wrong on FFK. Granted that he has a proclivity for being cantankerous, but one thing even his traducers agree on is his wit. He also epitomises a generational change from the status quo. You don't trifle with a man fighting to prove a point... |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Nobody: 6:27pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
maestroferddi:Ure obviously biased. *signs out.. |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 6:36pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
Aloralord1:Biased for not telling you what you want to hear or for laying stark realities on the ground? |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by orimsamsam(m): 6:40pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
Op you knw nothing abt sw politics. It outrageous when a south eastern guy start talking abt yoruba politics from the east. I concluded dat ur prediction is based on party partisanship and political sentiment, When u allocated 53 percent vote for pdp in oyo state. Op i live in oyo state, iwo road to be precise. Gej didnt commission any single project in oyo state. I just hope u dont come to oyo state and open mouth dat gej will win oyo. You may get lynched if u say dat. 1 Like |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 6:49pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
orimsamsam:You are making a lot of careless assumptions... |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Jarus(m): 6:54pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
EKITI STATE This is agreeable. LAGOS STATE I see the reverse happening here: APC 53%; PDP 47% OGUN STATE Agreeable, but PDP may do better.
This is agreeable. OSUN STATE Looks agreeable too. OYO STATE I see a very tight neck to neck here, but I will say APC still has a slight edge. I have said elsewhere and will say: APC 52%; PDP 48% |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by PassingShot(m): 6:56pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
maestroferddi: And APC does not have the structures in their stronghold SW states? Osun, Lagos, Ogun and Oyo will be won by APC hands down. Ekiti will go for PDP and Ondo may also be won by PDP but by very slim margin. Generally, I don't see PDP getting more than 40% of the total votes in SW. |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Nobody: 6:57pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
maestroferddi:U said a pact between Jonathan and Tinubu gave Fashola a landslide in 2011 and u call that stark reality Thats beer parlour talk!!! Ure a TANOID, stop pretending! 2 Likes |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by Jarus(m): 7:01pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
olapluto: I met an okada man in my estate in Lagos here few days ago. He's from Iseyin (Oke Ogun) and that was here he registered. He said he would travel all the way from Lagos back to Iseyin just to deliver his one vote to Buhari. |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by olapluto(m): 7:12pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
Jarus:Oke Ogun is on lockdown for Buhari for sure. Ibadan seems to be tilting towards Buhari, though I have to confess that GEJ will still get about 30% of Ibadan votes. If GEJ can buy Ladoja, he might increase his % votes in Ibadan because Ibadan is very 'accord' right now 1 Like |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by masseratti: 7:44pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
I don't understand,Gej can't win in Ondo and Ekiti,those two states voted on personalities not parties,the Governors will try and pull there weight but if the election is free and fair in those two states from what is on ground there Gej cannot get 30 percent. As for Lagos they are the most unforgiving state,Gej marched the Army on them and you want them to vote Gej and give him 53%? He will be lucky if he can get 20%,people are actually trying so hard to get there pvc,even people I know that do not normally vote are trying to get their PVC to vote him out, OP go to newspaper stand,market Streets and hear what the people are saying. 1 Like |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 9:52pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
Jarus:Well, there is a consensus of agreement between us. If we factor in a probabilistic margin of plus or minus 5%, the whole scenario will come into perspective. We expect last minute alignments and realignments to play some role. |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 9:58pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
Aloralord1:One of the determinants of maturity and civility is the ability to make one's point(s) with taking the easy road of hurling invectives. A civilised way would have been to ask for clarification on an assertion that didn't sit well with you... |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by mrmetoo1: 10:00pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
maestroferddi: You're not going partisan but you're telling me a pharmacist is better well equipped to run a state like Lagos than someone with all that experience. Then what's wrong with being partisan, why's that a dirty word? The fact is I feel that my candidate is more qualified than yours and I've provided my reasons for that. If I didn't have any good reasons then you can throw in being partisan. If say a zoo keeper was running as Lagos state governor against Agbaje and I'm supporting the zoo keeper just because he belongs to a party then that's being partisan. The fact is Ambode has the necessary experience and qualifications. Then the fact that he's a Wharton graduate is very impressive to me. 2 Likes |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 10:01pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
masseratti:You are obviously allowing emotion and primordial sentiments to compromise your ability to critically appraise issues. |
Re: A Pundit's Analysis Of Electoral Probabilities In The South West by maestroferddi: 10:11pm On Jan 15, 2015 |
mrmetoo1:Well, one expects that you should be able to make the progress of graduating to an objective commenter than speaking like an impassioned football fan. The degree of fallacious statements you are throwing all over the place is worrisome. So being a pharmacist precludes Mr Agbaje from having the potentials for a seasoned administrator? You are joking, aren't you? I am not sure that Mr Ambode attended Wharton. Pls let us know the qualification he got from the institution. |
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