scholes0:


Contrary to your write up and qhat I just quoted you on, the old CIA figures are actually based on the result of an Old Nigerian census that included ethnic and religious data. They probably just did their own little tweaking to it and published it as research. EVeryone knows these western agencies know jackshit about Africa or Nigeria ...

This was where the old figures came from. It was the result of Nigeria's 1963 census, that was done before the civil war.

www.nairaland.com/attachments/2568779_48myjko_jpegcecde0d41350fd4fee05703ffa3d97bf

See, Before G.E.J came to power Ijaws have always been at 2% on that C.I.A and other sources Website. It was when the Niger Delta Militant crisis and Jonathan's ascension occured than They suddenly shot up to 10%.

As you can see, the old figures roughly corresponds to the new one, which was what they had up before like some sort of Ingenious research. Fulani plus Hausa, roughly 29%, Yoruba about 21%, Kanuris about 4%, Ibibis 3.5% yada yada..... They probably tweaked the figures and bumed Igbos up to 18 .... and so forth.....

RockHard:


No, check it again. Perhaps you are referring to the internet subscription. I am talking about voice data. Or perhaps you are referring to scholes', which is relatively outdated.

RockHard:


The only thing we have that is closest to an informed estimate of population spread are the telecoms data (attached below) because it is unbiased in any form, and it clearly shows the SE as the least populated while the SW is the single largest/most populated. Oyo and Ogun population alone are more than those of the SE combined (without including Lagos or Ekiti, Ondo, Osun or Kwara and Yoruba-speaking Kogi).

RockHard:


The only thing we have that is closest to an informed estimate of population spread are the telecoms data (attached below) because it is unbiased in any form, and it clearly shows the SE as the least populated while the SW is the single largest/most populated. Oyo and Ogun population alone are more than those of the SE combined (without including Lagos or Ekiti, Ondo, Osun or Kwara and Yoruba-speaking Kogi).

RockHard:


The only thing we have that is closest to an informed estimate of population spread are the telecoms data (attached below) because it is unbiased in any form, and it clearly shows the SE as the least populated while the SW is the single largest/most populated. Oyo and Ogun population alone are more than those of the SE combined (without including Lagos or Ekiti, Ondo, Osun or Kwara and Yoruba-speaking Kogi).

mandarin:
This is a highly contentious issue and being the election period, I hope its not a form of conspiracy to give the north some bold face on determining who has the voting strength to determine the country's future, all these agencies play their black sheep purposes in global affairs.
Now, to the data in itself, CIA is advised to provide parameters and their assumption as this is a very sensitive issue in Nigeria, they are coming for spoiler, now , that should stop.

The Nigeria population figure released after past censuses have been contested and the margin of errors provided hasn't been convincing so, its been a politically sensitive issue. Take the last census in which Kano state was rated as the most populous claiming over 9million alongside Lagos, that was a far cry from the initial estimate sampled by the Lagos State Government and it was believed Lagos had over 14million. Due to the importance of population in delineating representation in government, allocation of money and projects etc, its a highly contentious political issue.

There has been the cases of multiple counting and counting of aliens especially in the Northern fringe states bordering Niger and Chad. Now, that apart, if you were a businessman and need to sell stuffs in Nigeria looking at population distribution and purchasing power, I think looking at combining various available data, you can have a rough idea of what the population will look like.

If you ask me, I believe Nigeria is over estimating its population, I was at Northern Nigeria including Kano state, Katsina etc, been to rural areas and even at the time, could not fathom how Katsina State would be over 4million at the time or Kano 9 million residents, oh my, give me a break!
Nigeria I believe in 2018 will be hovering around 120-150million. All the current estimates are based on erroneous figures of past highly contested figures and that by implication affect all the segments of the data including ethnic figures.

Looking at the voice calls data, you can't overly rely on it but you can't dismiss it either.Internet usage, consumer volumes, energy consumption average per household, number of passengers in transit categories, number of children in schools, number of births in the hospitals, clinics etc are all reliable ways of estimating the number of people that may be and your error distribution can be high or low depending on how sure you are.

Yes, it is true that Hausa and Fulani in the North alongside many Muslims have very high birth rates(so also are people from other groups), I once saw the house of a man with 56 children somewhere in Katsina state but to use that as the basis for this overly wrong assumption or estimate by CIA is factually wrong! Additionally, lumping the Hausa/Fulani is a fraud, is either you fuse them or separate them, the population sheet should let people identify themselves as one.

Based on my estimate( a personal opinion) I feel the Hausa/Fulani combination excluding all the the Hausa speakers with different ethnic identification in the north, they will be like 26% and I feel the Yoruba will be like 22% while the Igbo will be like 19%. Among the other ethnic groups the Ibiobio- Efik family, the Tiv, Edo are of high population and then the Ijo family too but none can exceed 4%.

The day a good census will be conducted in Nigeria a lot of stuffs will be seen that will nullify long held assumptions.

RockHard:


The only thing we have that is closest to an informed estimate of population spread are the telecoms data (attached below) because it is unbiased in any form, and it clearly shows the SE as the least populated while the SW is the single largest/most populated. Oyo and Ogun population alone are more than those of the SE combined (without including Lagos or Ekiti, Ondo, Osun or Kwara and Yoruba-speaking Kogi).

MXrep:

While this stat is false truth remains that igbos outnumber yorubas in Nigeria. Like someone said before 1963 census is not reliable because Nigeria factor has already crept in. 1921 was purely colonial and more reliable. This is a 1933 document quoting the 1921 census.

RockHard:


The only thing we have that is closest to an informed estimate of population spread are the telecoms data (attached below) because it is unbiased in any form, and it clearly shows the SE as the least populated while the SW is the single largest/most populated. Oyo and Ogun population alone are more than those of the SE combined (without including Lagos or Ekiti, Ondo, Osun or Kwara and Yoruba-speaking Kogi).

Environer:


What about the millions of Igbos in Lagos, Ibadan, etc? CIA estimates are based on ethnicity, not on location. Of course, the SE would be the least populated by region, considering millions migrating out to other parts. But those millions are still Igbos, regardless of their location. No?

RockHard:


The only thing we have that is closest to an informed estimate of population spread are the telecoms data (attached below) because it is unbiased in any form, and it clearly shows the SE as the least populated while the SW is the single largest/most populated. Oyo and Ogun population alone are more than those of the SE combined (without including Lagos or Ekiti, Ondo, Osun or Kwara and Yoruba-speaking Kogi).