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CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... - Politics (4) - Nairaland

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Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by mandarin: 10:13am On Nov 16, 2018
This is a highly contentious issue and being the election period, I hope its not a form of conspiracy to give the north some bold face on determining who has the voting strength to determine the country's future, all these agencies play their black sheep purposes in global affairs.
Now, to the data in itself, CIA is advised to provide parameters and their assumption as this is a very sensitive issue in Nigeria, they are coming for spoiler, now , that should stop.

The Nigeria population figure released after past censuses have been contested and the margin of errors provided hasn't been convincing so, its been a politically sensitive issue. Take the last census in which Kano state was rated as the most populous claiming over 9million alongside Lagos, that was a far cry from the initial estimate sampled by the Lagos State Government and it was believed Lagos had over 14million. Due to the importance of population in delineating representation in government, allocation of money and projects etc, its a highly contentious political issue.

There has been the cases of multiple counting and counting of aliens especially in the Northern fringe states bordering Niger and Chad. Now, that apart, if you were a businessman and need to sell stuffs in Nigeria looking at population distribution and purchasing power, I think looking at combining various available data, you can have a rough idea of what the population will look like.

If you ask me, I believe Nigeria is over estimating its population, I was at Northern Nigeria including Kano state, Katsina etc, been to rural areas and even at the time, could not fathom how Katsina State would be over 4million at the time or Kano 9 million residents, oh my, give me a break!
Nigeria I believe in 2018 will be hovering around 120-150million. All the current estimates are based on erroneous figures of past highly contested figures and that by implication affect all the segments of the data including ethnic figures.

Looking at the voice calls data, you can't overly rely on it but you can't dismiss it either.Internet usage, consumer volumes, energy consumption average per household, number of passengers in transit categories, number of children in schools, number of births in the hospitals, clinics etc are all reliable ways of estimating the number of people that may be and your error distribution can be high or low depending on how sure you are.

Yes, it is true that Hausa and Fulani in the North alongside many Muslims have very high birth rates(so also are people from other groups), I once saw the house of a man with 56 children somewhere in Katsina state but to use that as the basis for this overly wrong assumption or estimate by CIA is factually wrong! Additionally, lumping the Hausa/Fulani is a fraud, is either you fuse them or separate them, the population sheet should let people identify themselves as one.

Based on my estimate( a personal opinion) I feel the Hausa/Fulani combination excluding all the the Hausa speakers with different ethnic identification in the north, they will be like 26% and I feel the Yoruba will be like 22% while the Igbo will be like 19%. Among the other ethnic groups the Ibiobio- Efik family, the Tiv, Edo are of high population and then the Ijo family too but none can exceed 4%.

The day a good census will be conducted in Nigeria a lot of stuffs will be seen that will nullify long held assumptions.

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Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by tigernews: 12:21pm On Nov 16, 2018
scholes0:


Contrary to your write up and qhat I just quoted you on, the old CIA figures are actually based on the result of an Old Nigerian census that included ethnic and religious data. They probably just did their own little tweaking to it and published it as research. EVeryone knows these western agencies know jackshit about Africa or Nigeria ...

This was where the old figures came from. It was the result of Nigeria's 1963 census, that was done before the civil war.



See, Before G.E.J came to power Ijaws have always been at 2% on that C.I.A and other sources Website. It was when the Niger Delta Militant crisis and Jonathan's ascension occured than They suddenly shot up to 10%.

As you can see, the old figures roughly corresponds to the new one, which was what they had up before like some sort of Ingenious research. Fulani plus Hausa, roughly 29%, Yoruba about 21%, Kanuris about 4%, Ibibis 3.5% yada yada..... They probably tweaked the figures and bumed Igbos up to 18 .... and so forth.....






Lie Mohammed, was their Enugu, Anambra, Rivers state etc as of 1963? all these your ouwole census data sheet is good for dust bin. We just need our Biafran republic to separate ourself from this poverty capital city of the world.

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Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by oilPUSSY(f): 2:38pm On Nov 16, 2018
Ok
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by oilPUSSY(f): 3:04pm On Nov 16, 2018
RockHard:


No, check it again. Perhaps you are referring to the internet subscription. I am talking about voice data. Or perhaps you are referring to scholes', which is relatively outdated.
Stop using voice call to judge population of a region because a lot of people have more than 20 sim cards they use to make calls
In fact let me come down to your level..

NW has the highest voting strength according to INEC and Nigeria population commission, but the same NW is no where to be found in what you posted there. Many people from SW regions have access to phones due to their Litracy level to be compared with people from NW.
Try to understand where I am heading to ...

15 Likes

Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by Environer: 3:13pm On Nov 16, 2018
RockHard:


The only thing we have that is closest to an informed estimate of population spread are the telecoms data (attached below) because it is unbiased in any form, and it clearly shows the SE as the least populated while the SW is the single largest/most populated. Oyo and Ogun population alone are more than those of the SE combined (without including Lagos or Ekiti, Ondo, Osun or Kwara and Yoruba-speaking Kogi).

What about the millions of Igbos in Lagos, Ibadan, etc? CIA estimates are based on ethnicity, not on location. Of course, the SE would be the least populated by region, considering millions migrating out to other parts. But those millions are still Igbos, regardless of their location. No?

8 Likes

Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by nnachukz(m): 3:18pm On Nov 16, 2018
RockHard:


The only thing we have that is closest to an informed estimate of population spread are the telecoms data (attached below) because it is unbiased in any form, and it clearly shows the SE as the least populated while the SW is the single largest/most populated. Oyo and Ogun population alone are more than those of the SE combined (without including Lagos or Ekiti, Ondo, Osun or Kwara and Yoruba-speaking Kogi).
What you have in your displayed Telecom data is active voices and not State of Origin of subscribers. So it can not be used to estimate population of any ethnic group except if you mean that all who live in Yoruba land must be yorubas, likewise other regions.

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Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by reality1010: 4:17pm On Nov 16, 2018
RockHard:


The only thing we have that is closest to an informed estimate of population spread are the telecoms data (attached below) because it is unbiased in any form, and it clearly shows the SE as the least populated while the SW is the single largest/most populated. Oyo and Ogun population alone are more than those of the SE combined (without including Lagos or Ekiti, Ondo, Osun or Kwara and Yoruba-speaking Kogi).
CIA is nt talking of geographical areas populated but individual ethnic population.Huasas lead followed by d Igbos and etc.Check out d numbers of Igbos in Lagos,Oyo Ogun,Kano,Kaduna,Abuja and compare them wt Yorubas not even mentioning SS states and SE states.Also d Huasas r spread evertwhere.Check out Huasas population in d above mentioned states.CIA is very right.

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Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by reality1010: 4:27pm On Nov 16, 2018
mandarin:
This is a highly contentious issue and being the election period, I hope its not a form of conspiracy to give the north some bold face on determining who has the voting strength to determine the country's future, all these agencies play their black sheep purposes in global affairs.
Now, to the data in itself, CIA is advised to provide parameters and their assumption as this is a very sensitive issue in Nigeria, they are coming for spoiler, now , that should stop.

The Nigeria population figure released after past censuses have been contested and the margin of errors provided hasn't been convincing so, its been a politically sensitive issue. Take the last census in which Kano state was rated as the most populous claiming over 9million alongside Lagos, that was a far cry from the initial estimate sampled by the Lagos State Government and it was believed Lagos had over 14million. Due to the importance of population in delineating representation in government, allocation of money and projects etc, its a highly contentious political issue.

There has been the cases of multiple counting and counting of aliens especially in the Northern fringe states bordering Niger and Chad. Now, that apart, if you were a businessman and need to sell stuffs in Nigeria looking at population distribution and purchasing power, I think looking at combining various available data, you can have a rough idea of what the population will look like.

If you ask me, I believe Nigeria is over estimating its population, I was at Northern Nigeria including Kano state, Katsina etc, been to rural areas and even at the time, could not fathom how Katsina State would be over 4million at the time or Kano 9 million residents, oh my, give me a break!
Nigeria I believe in 2018 will be hovering around 120-150million. All the current estimates are based on erroneous figures of past highly contested figures and that by implication affect all the segments of the data including ethnic figures.

Looking at the voice calls data, you can't overly rely on it but you can't dismiss it either.Internet usage, consumer volumes, energy consumption average per household, number of passengers in transit categories, number of children in schools, number of births in the hospitals, clinics etc are all reliable ways of estimating the number of people that may be and your error distribution can be high or low depending on how sure you are.

Yes, it is true that Hausa and Fulani in the North alongside many Muslims have very high birth rates(so also are people from other groups), I once saw the house of a man with 56 children somewhere in Katsina state but to use that as the basis for this overly wrong assumption or estimate by CIA is factually wrong! Additionally, lumping the Hausa/Fulani is a fraud, is either you fuse them or separate them, the population sheet should let people identify themselves as one.

Based on my estimate( a personal opinion) I feel the Hausa/Fulani combination excluding all the the Hausa speakers with different ethnic identification in the north, they will be like 26% and I feel the Yoruba will be like 22% while the Igbo will be like 19%. Among the other ethnic groups the Ibiobio- Efik family, the Tiv, Edo are of high population and then the Ijo family too but none can exceed 4%.

The day a good census will be conducted in Nigeria a lot of stuffs will be seen that will nullify long held assumptions.
U dnt need much from CIA.Everytin is clear.The population of females more than males.Huasas has more population than any other ethnic grp,followed by d Igbos and Yorubas.CIA is nt speaking of population in zones which of course place SW as second but d report is on individual ethnicity.

3 Likes

Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by Kenekingisback: 4:29pm On Nov 16, 2018
Tinubu and Ambode would not like this news as i see another census loading

1 Like

Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by enemyofprogress: 4:31pm On Nov 16, 2018
With all the killings in the north,how come? Na ojoro Jo





Is sleeping with a married man or woman a sim?

1 Like

Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by abbey621(m): 4:35pm On Nov 16, 2018
I love how all these internatinal organizations are able to come up with detailed statistics about the Nigerian population even though the Nigerian government could not complete a census without many shortcomings. It would be nice to see their sources and their verification process. Yea yea CIA but even CIA dey mess up, for example does the stat include those abroad? Does the stat include those without any form of identification? Laughable!
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by Ghostmode2two(m): 4:37pm On Nov 16, 2018
OP Nigeria should come out with her own stats

1 Like

Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by Malawian(m): 4:37pm On Nov 16, 2018
Yoruba should be 5% or lower. They have mined all their skulls.

9 Likes

Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by kernel001: 4:38pm On Nov 16, 2018
RockHard:


The only thing we have that is closest to an informed estimate of population spread are the telecoms data (attached below) because it is unbiased in any form, and it clearly shows the SE as the least populated while the SW is the single largest/most populated. Oyo and Ogun population alone are more than those of the SE combined (without including Lagos or Ekiti, Ondo, Osun or Kwara and Yoruba-speaking Kogi).


Point of correction, Lagos and Ogun state are conglomerate of various ethnicity, that's the reason why Non of them wins anything on the grounds of "state of origin", if you doubt me, I challenge you to mention three things they've won on the ground of their natives.

5 Likes

Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by iamJ(f): 4:39pm On Nov 16, 2018
Which others is 28 %
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by TroubleMaker47(m): 4:42pm On Nov 16, 2018
MXrep:

While this stat is false truth remains that igbos outnumber yorubas in Nigeria. Like someone said before 1963 census is not reliable because Nigeria factor has already crept in. 1921 was purely colonial and more reliable. This is a 1933 document quoting the 1921 census.
That was before the civil war where over 1 million igbos died
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by oluwasegun007(m): 4:43pm On Nov 16, 2018
I so so believe this data....


Igbo and Hausa sabi born....

2 Likes

Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by DIVINEEVIDENCE: 4:43pm On Nov 16, 2018
Are those figures for population/head count or for landmass?
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by Kennydoc(m): 4:44pm On Nov 16, 2018
RockHard:


The only thing we have that is closest to an informed estimate of population spread are the telecoms data (attached below) because it is unbiased in any form, and it clearly shows the SE as the least populated while the SW is the single largest/most populated. Oyo and Ogun population alone are more than those of the SE combined (without including Lagos or Ekiti, Ondo, Osun or Kwara and Yoruba-speaking Kogi).

You cannot decide the population of the different tribes from the population of the geopolitical zones. There are so many Igbos in Lagos today, for example. Even Ogun state has many Igbos living there today who do businesses in Lagos.
You will always have the population of the South East lower cos many Igbos are scattered everywhere doing business. Same cannot be said of Yorubas most of whom live in the South West.

Take a look at JAMB and WAEC enrolments in the past 8 years and see that South West states haven't had a fantastic representation compared to the South East. I know Yorubas go to school just like Igbos. If only Ogun and Oyo have more Yorubas than all the Igbos in the South East, how come it doesn't reflect in JAMB and WAEC?

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Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by samuelchimmy(m): 4:52pm On Nov 16, 2018
Seeing the criteria used for the statistics, heavy mistakes should be expected,however we should also understand, that ,this is what they want the public to see,after all it is the intelligence organization of the world power,in my own opinion I think they know better,and Much decision was made to bring this info to the public in respect to their interests
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by gmercy713: 4:52pm On Nov 16, 2018
CIA got this right.

You can argue with the number of people you have given birth to and I will show you an Hausa man with two wives and eleven children.

Hausa are many because they lack birth control and you don't need me to tell you about the increased or unending early marriage of females.

Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by mbos: 4:54pm On Nov 16, 2018
whether they like it or not,,,Biafra must be....http://ceesty.com/wXFIUx
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by WaffenSS(m): 4:55pm On Nov 16, 2018
You'd have been singing a different tune had they suggested hausa-fulani are 10% and Muslims less than 50%


You're peeved because the statistics do not conform to your prejudices and preconceptions.

You may pls write to the CIA and tell them they're wrong and you're right.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by ORIENTATION101: 4:57pm On Nov 16, 2018
Environer:


What about the millions of Igbos in Lagos, Ibadan, etc? CIA estimates are based on ethnicity, not on location. Of course, the SE would be the least populated by region, considering millions migrating out to other parts. But those millions are still Igbos, regardless of their location. No?
Taaa where did u see millions of igbo in ibadan
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by Lordofthewest(m): 4:57pm On Nov 16, 2018
They've started fanning the flames of ethnicity and as usual the dumb Nigerians falling for it....what business does CIA have with ethnicity in Nigeria except to use it for sinister purposes.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by nextstep(m): 4:58pm On Nov 16, 2018
RockHard:


The only thing we have that is closest to an informed estimate of population spread are the telecoms data (attached below) because it is unbiased in any form, and it clearly shows the SE as the least populated while the SW is the single largest/most populated. Oyo and Ogun population alone are more than those of the SE combined (without including Lagos or Ekiti, Ondo, Osun or Kwara and Yoruba-speaking Kogi).

It's a shame when a country refuses to conduct its own credible census, and we have to rely on other's guesses.

This is the number of active voice lines for a total of 143 million... it's distorted by the fact that most people own multiple lines, and the numbers in SW are boosted by people from North and SE residing in those states (esp. Lagos/Ogun/Kwara/Oyo)

If they are going by pure populations in the different zones, then they haven't accounted for the few million SE people spread all over.
Re: CIA Revision Of Nigeria's Ethnic And Religious Statistics. Shock Alert!! ... by AyakaDunukofia: 5:07pm On Nov 16, 2018
Nigeria has 36 states and the FCT. After the indigenes in each of the states, Igbos comes second in population. A fact buttressed by even Kwankwaso when he said the Igbos in the north amount to 10 million, and that he built a mini city in Kano called, " New Enugu".

Why are we afraid to know our ethnicities? Simply put ethnicity in the census questionnaire and tabulate it, the issue would be resolved once and for all.

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