fxuser:


umm

Understanding Candlesticks and patterns i think is just a necessary TA , FA or GUT approach pipu

Recommend:
Steve Nison: (he covered everything)
https://www.scribd.com/doc/122132782/01-Japanese-Candlestick-Charting-Techniques-Second-Edition-Steve-Nison-pdf

Then u can read TA:

1) Schabacker (d daddy of TA)
2) Edwards and Magee (d disciples )

DeRuggedProf:


I will borrow you three kidnappers, don't worry.
Sometimes you need the tactics of Adolf Hitler to survive...

DeRuggedProf:
AN APPEAL TO BECOME A FEMALE MEMBER OF THIS FORUM.

I hereby write to seek your permission as forum member to allow me to change my sex from male to female.
I promise to be a well behaved female member till December runs out.
This will enable me to convince Yayira to open the cockpit of Diamiond bank and allow me in.
I have gotten a spare engine and landing gear for her.
I will appreciate if this appeal is given urgent and desired attention.
Best regards.....

onegentleguy:


I stated it here in my analysis yesterday that the current shareholders in DIAMOND are far better off in terms of returns than their counterparts in ACCESS as far as this merger deal is concerned.


DISCLOSURE: ONEGENTLEGUY has already sold off his stake in ACCESS bank... including that from the small portfolios he manages.
DISCLAIMER: NOT a recommendation. ...due diligence still applies.

Yayira:



NOT GRANTED !

This has nothing to do with diamond but a lot to do with shortage of blokos.. it’s already 7 women for 1 men.. mba we no want more..

DeRuggedProf:


Lol....

onegentleguy:
Given the proposed merger between ACCESS and DIAMOND, it makes some sense to run an in-depth but cursory review and analysis to find out who amongst the shareholders of the 2 are up for a better deal from it all.
Put differently, where would be best for u to align with on the back of this merger?

"According to the report from both banks, the proposed merger would involve Access Bank acquiring the entire issued share capital of Diamond Bank in exchange for a combination of cash and shares in Access Bank via a Scheme of Merger.
Based on the agreement reached by the boards of the two financial institutions, Diamond Bank shareholders will receive a consideration of N3.13 per share, comprising of N1.00 per share in cash and the allotment of two(2) New Access Bank ordinary shares for every seven(7) Diamond Bank ordinary shares held as at the implementation date."

...a quick math:

On the DIAMOND side of the curve;

Today's closure price- N1.04. ...hence MoS gap from proposed merger price = 3.13-1.04 = N2.09.
Consideration price = N3.13
Cash allotment = N1
Hence allotment figure = Price consideration discounting for cash = 3.13-1 = N2.13.
Allotment ratio fulfilling implementation date- 7:2 (7 diamond for 2 access)
This means that post cash allotment, an investor's N14.91(7×2.13) worth in DIAMOND is EXPECTED to be equivalent to a N16.30(2×8.15) worth of ACCESS (assuming today's closing price of N8.15).
But DIAMOND's current price is N1.04. ...and so with reference to this allotment, an investor's N7.28(7×1.04) in DIAMOND should complement a N16.30(2×8.15) value in ACCESS.
...the interpretation of this is that an Investor/trader who managed to KEY in at the pre implementation date should at the very least be entitled to a stake of 2 units of ACCESS BANK for just N7.28. ...or per equity stake(1 unit) for only N3.64 !!
Which presents the plausibility of an already 114% ROI given ACCESS BANK'S closing price of N8.15 today.
Even if the price of DIAMOND should appreciate to the allotment figure price of N2.13, there would still be an over 9% MoS discount[(16.30-14.91)/14.91] from the current price of ACCESS. ...and we have not even factored in the N1 cash figure.
Add that up, and the chance of any possible return can only increase. (a likely 180-210% ROI).

On the ACCESS side of the curve;

We need to look at things in reverse view.
If a shareholder who keyed into DIAMOND pre implementation date can(given the above computation) get an equity stake of ACCESS BANK with just N3.64, it makes sense to assume in part(given access' current market price of N8.15) that value accretion is less here.
The best case scenerio would be to run an estimate in line with the fair value of ACCESS BANK, and do a repeat computation to see where there would likely be more 'gap' to tap from with regards to value.
At my FV estimate of N15.50 for ACCESS and using a Mix of valuation model to weigh in on the best price post merger (after dilution), ACCESS' best price would come in at slightly higher than today's closing price. (N9.40 to be precise)
Note that 'best price' in this instance refers to what I believe an equity stake of ACCESS should come to as an equivalent to DIAMOND and not necessarily the fair value of ACCESS.

Conclusion:
It makes sense to believe that the chances of reaping higher gains is more with DIAMOND than ACCESS.
...and so UNLESS THERE IS MORE TO THIS MERGER THAN WE ALREADY KNOW, the shareholders of DIAMOND has got themselves a better deal ahead of ACCESS.
So in the short term, I see a much better derivable value in DIAMOND than ACCESS. That said, there's also a high possibility of a great value with the latter in the long term, should this drive be effectively managed.

My advise:
If I were an Investor with positions in both coys, I would look to book my profit from DIAMOND within the N2-2.09 price band and no more than N9.40 in ACCESS. This should also serve to guide ur target entries if u wish to KEY in. (read between the lines from the estimates above)
...but that's just me.

NOTE: The sole aim of this run down is to look in on which among the 2 coys offers the possibility of a better baigain in terms of price appreciation.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is purely information driven. ...and NOT a reference to any sought of recommendation !!
Due diligence should still remain ur 1st priority.

akinssan:
Glue don comot for FCMB chair, l no even know whether na India or Chinese Gum hold am for 1.55

Yayira:



NOT GRANTED !

This has nothing to do with diamond but a lot to do with shortage of blokos.. it’s already 7 women for 1 man.. mba we no want more..

MonkeyHunter:



I am not a financial expert but I am of the opinion that the share exchange will be treated using the fundamental principle that on the stock exchange you cannot manufacture or destroy value so if you pay dividend or bonus shares your shares must be marked down.

1) The cash payment to diamond bank share holders will be treated as a dividend payment so Access Bank shares will be market down for the dividend payment.

2) Shares issue to Diamond bank share holders will be treated as a bonus issue by Access Bank and the Acess Bank shares will also be marked down for the issue of these shares.

3)Diamond banks shares (Diamond banks market cap) that are cancelled will be treated as a reconstruction and Access Bank shares will be marked up for the cancellation of these shares.



Access Banks Market Cap post-Merger = (Market Cap of Access bank at cut-off date + Market Cap of Access bank at cut-off date) - Cash payment to diamnd bank share holders

Access Bank Market Cap Post Merger = Adjusted Access Bank Shares (i.e marked down or up) * shares in issue post merger

Shares in issue post merger = Issued Access bank shares pre-merger + (2 *Issued diamond bank /7)

In effect the sharing formula (shares to be given to each shareholders) is already know but the value to be shared (combined market Cap of each party) is not known.

MonkeyHunter:



I am not a financial expert but I am of the opinion that the share exchange will be treated using the fundamental principle that on the stock exchange you cannot manufacture or destroy value so if you pay dividend or bonus shares your shares must be marked down.

1) The cash payment to diamond bank share holders will be treated as a dividend payment so Access Bank shares will be market down for the dividend payment.

2) Shares issue to Diamond bank share holders will be treated as a bonus issue by Access Bank and the Acess Bank shares will also be marked down for the issue of these shares.

3)Diamond banks shares (Diamond banks market cap) that are cancelled will be treated as a reconstruction and Access Bank shares will be marked up for the cancellation of these shares.



Access Banks Market Cap post-Merger = (Market Cap of Access bank at cut-off date + Market Cap of Access bank at cut-off date) - Cash payment to diamnd bank share holders

Access Bank Market Cap Post Merger = Adjusted Access Bank Shares (i.e marked down or up) * shares in issue post merger

Shares in issue post merger = Issued Access bank shares pre-merger + (2 *Issued diamond bank /7)

In effect the sharing formula (shares to be given to each shareholders) is already know but the value to be shared (combined market Cap of each party) is not know.

The adjusted share price of Access Bank post merger will be a function of the final share price of Diamond and Access on the cutoff date.The increase in the share price of diamond bank works in Access Bank share holders favour as it implies that there will be less reduction in the value of the shares by virtue of a markdown.

For Example if Access stays at N7.85 and Diamond rises to N5

Access pre merger market Cap = 28,927,971,631 * 7.85 = N 227,084,577,303.35

Diamond pre merger market Cap = 23,160,388,968 * 5 =N 227,084,577,303.35

Combined Market Cap = N 227,084,577,303.35 +N 227,084,577,303.35 - N23,160,388,968.00 (cash payment) = 319,726,133,175.35

Shares issued to Diamond bank = 2 * 23,160,388,968.00 / 7 = 6,617,253,990.86

Post Merger Shares in Issue = 6,617,253,990.86 + 28,927,971,631 = 35,545,225,621.86

Adjusted Share price post merger = 319,726,133,175.35 / 35,545,225,621.86 = N8.99

In summary, till share prices of both parties are frozen things are still fluid as per but Access gets 81% of the combined party while diamond gets 19% plus N23b cash

Apologies for my long posts

Mcy56:
Mobil 170 today. Is it not last week I saw it at 151? Anyone that had the gut to buy then will be in profit now.
I hope Oando too will take off for the sake of my classmate.

fxuser:



- there are bullish cross deals and bearish ones . . we de observe una for learning purposes
- once price can reject its low of the day and even close above it opening , dats d signal u want to see

#hammer

Mpeace:
lol. Pray for fidelity, transcorp and fcmb. Na where I dey now.
But come oh, which bus u dey sef. I don dey suspect say you still day diamond. No forget to pay ur tithe when you drop oh.

DeRuggedProf:


Una no dey ever grant tithe holiday after dis kind of bumpy ride?

Godlylifeoneart:
https://www.voiceheadlines.com/access-bank-to-launch-200m-rights-issue-after-diamond-bank-acquisition/





Exclusives
Access Bank to launch $200m rights issue after Diamond Bank acquisition
by David Pilling, FT
December 18, 2018 | 8:09 am
| | | Start Conversation

Related Story: Access Bank to buy rival Diamond to create Nigeria’s largest lender

Access Bank which announced the acquisition of Diamond Bank to create Nigeria’s largest banking institution will launch a subordinated rights issue of about $200m to keep its capital well above regulatory requirements, bankers working on the deal told the Financial Times. Access Bank reached an agreement in principle on Sunday o buy Diamond Bank in…

tiar:
Wrong! It is a share and cash acquisition. Don't mislead others.

onegentleguy:


Good a thing we decided to divorce 'the person of ACCESS'.
Why do I get the feeling that the bank probably lacks enough funding power to facilitate this merger deal. Unless there's more to this, existing shareholders in ACCESS might be in for some value erosion.
More possible impact from dilution loading...


CAVEAT: NOT to be inferred as any sought of recommendation. ...due diligence still applies.

Mpeace:
If that is true then we are looking at 10billion new shares by rights issue, plus 6billion shares by acquisition. Hmm Access bank is set to be the biggest bank by everything.
Na diamond pple get this thing well. Na dem go enjoy the main goodies.

onegentleguy:


Good a thing we decided to divorce 'the person of ACCESS'.
Why do I get the feeling that the bank probably lacks enough funding power to facilitate this merger deal. Unless there's more to this, existing shareholders in ACCESS might be in for some value erosion.
More possible impact from dilution loading...


CAVEAT: NOT to be inferred as any sought of recommendation. ...due diligence still applies.