Deadlytruth:
@Jideflash, that impatient person in STI is on his game again.

BMZK:
Is there anything wrong with morgan platform ?
Why offers and bids at the same price not executed ?

Mpeace:
If I get money na to just buy small diamond use collect one naira and access shares. This one na sure 50%. in less than 3 months.

Agbalowomeri:


Your 50% depends on the value of Access that time

However, I am seriously tempted too; hope village people are not knocking on my door

Cownu:
Answer : Quantity!

BullBearMkt:

...na just info to interested traders. I have not read from @currentprice this year. I hope all is well

Mpeace:
the 50% is the N1 on top of the deal.

Agbalowomeri:


Your 50% depends on the value of Access that time

However, I am seriously tempted too; hope village people are not knocking on my door

currentprice:


instead of diamond while not buying Access, abi access crime is more than the merger agreement?

access price currently below 6 while uba and fbn trading above 7.

Chibuking81:

After acquisition, in price wise access will not be in that level again, until after some time. It will even go below #5 if not 4

currentprice:


do u think access will remain at 4/5 when uba and fbn rise to 10?

tritritri:



we bin asking after u...hope all is well?

onegentleguy:
Following my last post on the ACCESS/DIAMOND merger deal, I have received some mails requesting for more clarity on how best to KEY in/invest in both coys.
The best way to answer to that is to look at the possible discount to tap from(returns) before/pre and after/post merger.
In retrospect, the gap/difference between their current market prices(at any given point in time) to what they should actually sell for in relation to each other is the pre merger inherent discount, while that between the current market price to the effective allotment price(their face value considering the merger terms) is the post merger inherent discount.
With computing this, I shall also give a realistic view of 'what may likely be playing out behind the scenes' with respect to the merger/aquisation deal.

A quick math;

On the ACCESS side of the curve...
Effective allotment price of ACCESS= N7.45(this was calculated yesterday)
Current market price of ACCESS= N5.30(as at close of business yesterday)
Price a unit of ACCESS should sell relative to that of DIAMOND= N3.47 ...using the formula: [3.50 X (current market price of DIAMOND - 1)] and inputting DIAMONDS yesterday closure price of N1.99.
Therefore pre merger inherent discount= relative price - current market price= 3.47 - 5.30= -N1.83
The negative sign means that the discount is an approx 34.5% premium.
...the interpretation of this is that given the merger terms, u will be paying N1.83 more buying ACCESS right now when the price of DIAMOND is N1.99 !!
Post merger inherent discount= 7.45 - 5.30= N2.15

On the DIAMOND side of the curve...
Effective allotment price of DIAMOND = N2.13(merger valuation - cash consideration)
Current market price of DIAMOND= N1.99(as at close of business yesterday)
Price a unit of DIAMOND should sell relative to that of ACCESS= N2.51 ...using the formula: [(2/7 X current market price of ACCESS) + 1] and inputting ACCESS' yesterday closure price of N5.30.
Therefore pre merger inherent discount= relative price - current market price= 2.51 - 1.99= 0.52
Which is an approx 26% discount.
Again the interpretation of this is that given the merger terms, u will be paying 52k less buying DIAMOND right now
when the price of ACCESS is N5.30 !!

So pre merger, DIAMOND presents the opportunity of a discount to tap from(ROI), while ACCESS presents none than a premium.
ACCESS however presents some value gap to tap from post merger. ...which presently stands at N2.15(7.45 - 5.30), an approx 40% upside potential.

My inference:
It makes sense to believe that pre merger, ACCESS might experience more SELL pressure, while DIAMOND could maintain more BUY pressure. ...until of course there is an equilibrium on their price relation or if their merger face value is achieved.
This should give u an idea of what might be playing out behind the scenes with respect to this deal.
A game/ploy to depress the price of ACCESS while mopping up DIAMOND pre merger and then exchanging it with ACCESS at a cheap before coming back with full force to mop up ACCESS post merger might not be far from been true.
...particularly because the terms therein shows a mutually inclusive and directly proportional entities.

Conclusion:
Pre merger, Mr DIAMOND wins while Mr ACCESS is subdued, while post merger Sir ACCESS 'resurrects' !!
Those who know and understand know how they need to 'play their cards'.

CAVEAT: This analysis is strictly for informational purpose only. It should only serve as a guide to further ur investing strategy with both coys, and NOT a recommendation.
...due diligence still applies.

Chibuking81:

After acquisition, in price wise access will not be in that level again, until after some time. It will even go below #5 if not 4.

Instead of buying Access bank with this their Diamond merger talk, I will buy Fidelity and FCMB at their current price, even though I know that the Price of Fidelity and FCMB will still drop again this month. At least I will be sure of their dividend and price appreciation once after election.

But if Access bank decided not to go again with Diamond bank acquisition talk, their price will become hot cake, they will move back above UBA, because right issue talk will not be there again, then they will still maintain their higher eps above UBA and FBNH, since the number of their outstanding share will remain as it is without increasing.

onegentleguy:



I do not think the bolded in ur post will hold my dear.
...the deal will most likely sail through. As we speak, it has an 88% chance of actualization !!
Now if u got a complete grasp of the content of the post above(read btw the lines), then u ought to know how the entities in this merger deal should play out with respect to each another.
As long as the terms of this deal is concerned, have this at the back of ur mind:

1) Any rise/increment in the market price of ACCESS will most probably reflect or bring about an even bigger rise in the price of DIAMOND.
Because as the price of ACCESS increases, the RELATIVE price of DIAMOND(what diamond should sell relative to access) should gap up to create the needed equilibrium in their price relation. ...by given rise to a higher pre merger discount from the N3.13 merger face value of DIAMOND.
Here the probability of occurrence is near 1.

2) Any rise/increment in the market price of DIAMOND ought to reflect or MIRROR a drop in the price of ACCESS. ...because as the price of DIAMOND increases, the RELATIVE price of ACCESS(what access should sell relative to diamond) should drop. ...until in principal, the price of DIAMOND equates the merger valuation of N3.13 and creates the needed equilibrium.
Again the probability of occurrence here is also near 1.

Both cases are practical pre merger possibility.
From 1, u do not need a soothsayer to tell u that traders and investors alike will likely key into any drop in the price of DIAMOND on the back of any rise in the price of ACCESS. ...while from 2, it can be deduced that folks will also likely key in MORE in DIAMOND if any rise in it does not reflect a corresponding drop in the relative price of ACCESS(or if the price of access gaps up as diamond increases)

So it makes sense to believe that in the short term, DIAMOND could maintain more BUY pressure while ACCESS might experience more SELL pressure.
This is why I still maintain that pre merger DIAMOND wins while ACCESS is subdued, while post merger ACCESS 'resurrects' !! ...unless of course an equibruim is achieved in their relative merger price before the deal is sealed.
It is not for nothing that ACCESS has witnessed a downside pressure(dropping from a high of near N9), while downside pressure still persist.
It is also not for nothing that DIAMOND has commanded a bullish territory while ACCESS has maintained a relatively indifferent one.

My advise: 'Be DIAMOND' in the short term, and look out to 'ACCESS ur way through' in the mid to long term !!

CAVEAT: Just a guide... not an recommendation.
Due diligence still applies.

Chibuking81:

You made a very good point, I also agreed that they deal has gone up to 88%, but remaining 12% should not be write off, they will still get their shareholders approval in their coming general meeting before the deal will be sealed. In Nigeria the more one look, the less he/she see.

We should not rule market manipulators out, before the deal, access bank seems to have some stake in Diamond bank, and should government revoke diamond bank license like that of Skye bank, it will affect their stake.

They might make the deal look real to buy more time for diamond bank to survive, and bail out to those believing that the deal will go through, and once diamond bank release a little good result in their 2018 final year, they will collapse the deal and Defend Diamond bank price not to go below #1 again.

But if the deal is sealed,
1. what will be your thought towards increase in the number of their existing outstanding share through the right issue, and adding of constructed diamond bank share to the existing share of Access bank?
2. Will it not affect their EPS, and price?
3. Will they still give a reasonable dividend this year?

Agbalowomeri:


This our permapessimist
There is God oooo

Chibuking81:

You made a very good point, I also agreed that they deal has gone up to 88%, but remaining 12% should not be write off, they will still get their shareholders approval in their coming general meeting before the deal will be sealed. In Nigeria the more one look, the less he/she see.

We should not rule market manipulators out, before the deal, access bank and their directors seems to have some stake in Diamond bank, and should government revoke diamond bank license like that of Skye bank, it will affect their stake.

They might make the deal look real to buy more time for diamond bank to survive, and bail out to those believing that the deal will go through, and once diamond bank release a little good result in their 2018 final year, they will collapse the deal and Defend Diamond bank price not to go below #1 again.

But if the deal is sealed,
1. what will be your thought towards increase in the number of their existing outstanding share through the right issue, and adding of constructed diamond bank share to the existing share of Access bank?
2. Will it not affect their EPS, and price?
3. Will they still give a reasonable dividend this year?

Mpeace:
If I get money na to just buy small diamond use collect one naira and access shares. This one na sure 50%. in less than 3 months.

Deadlytruth:

I know say e don tey wey you like Diamond.

currentprice:
EKUU new year mkt o

we are making serious money this year

Agbalowomeri:


Na true o; we don forget sef
E for still pay the guy if he had waited Lol; but to see diamond nosedive to 66kobo no easy o

jideflash:
Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc has launched a process to raise N2.09 billion from existing shareholders as the insurance company seeks to beef up its capital base to position it in better stead for large-ticket transactions.

Under the rights issue, which is expected this quarter, Sovereign Trust will issue 4.17 billion ordinary shares of 50 kobo each at offer price of 50 per share. As rights, the new shares to be issued have been pre-allotted on the basis of one new share for every two ordinary shares held as at the close of business yesterday, Tuesday, January 15, 2019.

http://thenationonlineng.net/sovereign-trust-insurance-raise-n2-09b-shareholders/

veecovee:
long time CP ...

Where have you been enjoying your oil money? Make you start this new year pay tithe oo

Can you state 3 bank stocks that are goldmines and could likely be the first to take off during bull

cc bullbear, onegntle, oracle, everyone