₦airaland Forum

Adebowale89:
i have known passingshot to be an unbiased political analyst and he never disappointed for once


I met with a former house of rep member, a card member of PDP predicting figures lower than that for PDP in this forthcoming election



PDP didn't do their assignment well. a neutral and corrupt free candidates from incumbency zones would have made the election an interesting one but settling with Atiku and picking VP out of west was a greatest mistake PDP ever made


even Atiku and PDP knows defeat stare at him hence his attack against pmb and inec just to save face



2019 election is the most soft election for incumbent govt after 2003 election. I foreseen many PDP members deserting the party before first week of next month

""picking VP out of west was a greatest mistake PDP ever made""

How many votes did yorubas give buhari in 2015 (Wen they didn't know that he was a stark failure)?? 1.9 million votes.

Yorubas also gave PDP 1.3 million votes even though PDP vice was awusa n Apc vice was yoruba.

SW votes will be useless in the next elections, it will be a break even. The battle is in the NC.

To show how useless SW votes will be, Atiku didn't pick a SW candidate as VP, he didn't give SW Senate presidency or even ordinary Fed HOA speaker.

OBJ, Atiku, TY Danjuma, Babangida know very well that if they dknt pick an IGBO man as VP, PDP will be risking at least 3 million igbo votes at home in the SE n 4 million votes from IGBOS living across every state in Nigeria...Compare that with the possible votes yorubas could ever give them. That's why they stepped the yorubas aside.

The battle is in the north, Nowhere else.

PassingShot:
Keep dwelling on sentiments and emotions. I have done this many times to outstanding success. So, worry for PDP.

U did not do anything many times

Olumeme:
I stopped reading when you predicted APC winning Nassarawa state. Hehehehehehehehehe.

First of all, PDP has never lost a presidential election there, even with all change noise in 2015.

I go to maraba every other week, because I gave friends and colleagues there, I can tell you authoritatively that APC cannot win presidential elections in Nassarawa, I can bet with my head.

For kogi state, there are 3 senatorial districts, the west, Central and East.
I am From kogi state, I'll tell you for free that buhari can only win the central because of the influence of the president governor, who is very violent, but PDP is Winning east and west, I can tell you for free.

The abysmal performance of the governor will add to the woes of buhari because it is perceived that, Bello is a godson of buhari and he doesn't pay salaries.

Away from that, there's practically no APC in taraba, it was mama taraba who was the leader of the party and was funding it there, she left and even has to pack her belongings from their office, all local APC Chairman and wards followed her, she's very close to Atiku.

Away from that, the economic reality does not favour buhari, the street is hungry and everyone is lamenting.
Someone like me supported and voted for buhari in 2015, but it will never happen again, there are lots of people like that, who voted for buhari but won't repeat the same mistake again.

I was a student in FUTMINNA, in 2015, you don't dare call Jonathan or post his poster, you will be beaten, I know an igbo friend who was stabbed because he was campaigning for jonathan, but the story is different today, because the 2 candidates are northerners and Muslims, and people can campaign for whoever they want without fear.

Other factors like Shiites shooting, Southern kaduna crisis, fulani killings and bandits, soldiers dying in the war front etc will be a factor in that election..

Kudos bro.

Don't mind that foolishly senseless paid analysis

PassingShot:
That’s “PEACE”

PassingShot replying himself again?

PassingShot:
PMB has always trunced Atiku there. Atiku is not loved at home and he will have done well to score 35% of the votes there.

Atiku lost to buhari in Adamawa for obvious reasons, There is and has never been anything like APGA or AC in northern Nigeria. Same way IGBOS refused to vote Ojukwu. If Ojukwu comes out in PDP, IGBOS will vote him senselessly, , it's not big deal.

With PDP, Atiku will cruise to victory in His home state.

roscoman:
I salute the wisdom and intelligent qogent ( IQ) of these predictions. But I totally disagree with about 70% of your predictions to each of the geopolitical zones as far as corporate entity called Nigeria is concerned. To be factual with happenings, facts and figures and verifiable things in present Nigeria, if PMB / APC would win 2019 elections even with power of incumbency, vote buying and use of military with a slight margin that may not be up to 500,000 votes.

Firstly, PMB / APC and Atiku Abubakar both of them are from Northern region. These two aspirants would shared the votes from these geopolitical zones because they were both Northerners. Non of them can win 70% votes in all the 19 Northern states.

Secondly, SE / SS: These zones were strong hold of PDP even right from the time of OBJ, Yar' Adua as well as GEJ. So the zones is still the strong hold of PDP tomorrow. Forget about weather Akpabio, Orji Kalu, Ngige, Amechi comes from these zones. Akpabio and Orji Uzor Kalu joined APC because of various curruption charges hanging in there necks as a former governors so that EFCC would soft pedal on there curruption cases. SE SS knows that 2023 presidency promising them is not realistic. Ngige had contested in Anambra many times but he lost, it is not that Anambras don't like him to rule them as Governor but single factor that is working against Dr. Chris Ngige was that he belongs to APC political party. Remember Peter Obi is also a former governor and he performed wonderfully well it would also has a great impact on the election outcome. We should not forget that South East produced Vice President last during Sheu Shagari Administration. Are you saying IPOB would not have an influence on this coming election out come ?.So all these factors may not be in favour of PMB / APC.

Thirdly, SW is the only geopolitical zones that would votes according to there mind and conciense. What happened in Ekiti and Osun States during there gubernatorial elections is what can be called votes buying so it is not an election. I can bet you, if PDP is able to this year Presidental election those two Youruba south west states cases would be revisited. Now forget about Tinubu, Oshibajo , Fashola e.t.c. These guys can't determine Yoruba / SW votes and they know. Yoruba had been clamouring for restructuring of Nigeria since the 1993 annulment of Presidential election won by MKO Abiola. SW still calling for the restructuring even during the OBJ 8 years rule and that was why GEJ had to organised a conference then. I am stand to be corrected here, Yoruba is the most educated, exposed, enlightened geopolitical zones in Nigeria and they so must believe in structuring of Nigeria but they know it is the only way multi faceted problems confronting Nigeria as a Nation can be solved. So since Atiku Abubakar has also been clamouring for restructuring of Nigeria alone, Yoruba and SW zone would votes for him at least 65%. These 3 states would never dance to Tinubu, Oshibajo, Fashola e.t.c. tones, Yorubas would collect there money an votes for the party of there choice.

Generally, I have been asking people this question but up till now, nobody was able to answer me. The question is " Did PMB / APC honestly and actually deserve for a second term ?. PMB is the worts President Nigeria had ever produced. Look at recently Rotimi Amechi video recording even Tinubu that bank rolled about 50% PMB election in 2015 knows that PMB is not performing at all and many Nigerians had seen it clearly with different things that had happened in Nigeria within the last 4 years. I can tell you, that if Nigerians was asked to rates GEJ & BUHARI administration, PMB can not score 40%. I am stand to be corrected, the way a 10 years old boy from Southwest Yoruba extraction reason and see things logically would be different from that of a 40years old northerner because of our educational background, exposure e.t.c.

Finally, US government was saying just yesterday that this 2019 Presidential election results may be declared in conclusive based on the premises that once APC / PMB sees some results declare which is not in APC favour, then they would declared it in conclusive election. Nigerians would reacted which may cause problems and International communities would never Nigeria to go into another civil war. So if care is not taking, APC / PMB may be disgrace out of that sit. Because if he do anyhow, he would be treated anyhow.

Very nice n balanced analysis without sentiments.




""Yoruba is the most educated, exposed, enlightened geopolitical zones in Nigeria""

But this is quite false. Between maybe 1900 - 1950 and between 1970 - 1990, yorubas were the most educated ethnic group in Nigeria...


The other times, IGBOS led

klenton:
the ops analysis lacks indepth analytical skills, 2015 is a never a yard stick in this election, if anything it has demystified that " buhari and sai baba" syndrome...many northerners are awake to the fact that buhari is not a god but a confused, empty little man and all this will play out in this election

dont forget this is no more the south vs the north, were an average northerner believes a southerner shouldn't govern, now its all from thier region and they are both powerful fulanis and this means both the sultanate ant the Emirates will be at best apolitical

in 2015 i predicted a buhari win and even won 50k bet on it, but this time the only way i see buhari win is by outright and broad daylight robbery.

let me tell u something even with the whole federal might, money and police pdp still did marvelous in ekiti and osun which infact many people believe pdp won.

now to my prediction, this is atikus election to lose, states like kano will be highly divided with cult like kwankwasiya movement, in sokoto with the incumbent tambuwal as governor and seeking reelection its not going to be bussiness as usual in bauchi with APC loosing dogara and co they must have lost ground, in NC taraba is for pdp with danjuma and the governor especially now that mama taraba is no more in APC, plateau state i believe even the governorship will go to PDP with gen useni as its candidate lalong is a gonner and that will show in the presidential election, kogi, benue ofcourse will be divided.

in sw, pdp will sure do well in states like lagos, oyo, osun , ekiti, ondo even ogun, surely they will do better than 2015,

in NE gombe with dankwanbo is definetly pdp, then jigawa with lamido is swing state, i dont believe atiku will lose Adamawa if u dont know even though atiku is in PDP her daughter is a commissioner in the state

SS and SE..even though buhari will get appreciable buharis but it will be insignificant and less than atikus in road in NE, NW and NC, unlike some permutations akwa ibom is all pdp and ebonyi is pdp full time, i dont know were the idea of umahi supporting buhari comes from the last time he didnt even allow them use the stadium for campaigns, and anambra is surely pdp no matter obianos gimmicks, u think the removal of the anambra speaker is in vain? obiano is the target

i strongly predict an atiku presidency and i havnt taken in the Consideration obasanjos factor who who every body that has become president in nigeria since the democracy he has endorsed while the ones without his endorsement fails.

Best analysis so far.

Like I keep saying, in 2019 Nigerians will see how powerful OBJ is. OBJ is a national leader that has followship across every single state in Nigeria.

Nigerians will also see how Powerful m connected OBJ is in Yoruba land.

Also Men that own Nigeria who have all abandoned buhari like IBB, OBJ, TY Danjuma, Jeremiah Useni, etc.....this is a sure loss for buhari

PassingShot:
It seems you don’t have a grasp of the word “landslide”.
The worst that can happen is to split SW at 50/50 between both parties. Do you think PDP will get that much? Doing that won’t even help PDP anyway.

I am from Oyo State and I know the sentiments there.

Its now sensible to admit that 50/50 is possible in SW.

Ogun, Osun, Ekiti m Ondo are very strong states for PDP to grab 50% - 55% votes.

Remember the OBJ factor......U will see how Powerful OBJ is in the SW and across the nation.

GoodGovernance:
Passing shot,you are vey generous oooo,APC winning ogun state by only 65%

Katsina only 70%

Ogun is OBJs homeland, expect Buhari to lose there.

PassingShot:
First thing first. He should resign once he has owned up to his mistake. That’s what people with credibility and integrity do. What follows is a separate matter.

you wey dey steal for your mama pot that time, if your mama don prosecute you dat time na jail u go dey now. quote me and catch fire.

anigbajumo:
Lol,most of u guys are serious joker.Where will Atiku gat 53% in NE??U just sit down at the corner of ur room typing nonsense. Atiku will win NC??If GEJ with all his federal might Nd money can't win,NC who is Atiku...He can only win Nassarawa,forget kogi,FCT Nd kwara.He will loose heavily, just wait Nd see.

45% for Atiku In SW?You mean the zone APC purposely locked down for PMB coz of next month election, screenshot this page.Atiku won't gat up to 40% in SW....

""If GEJ with all his federal might Nd money can't win,NC who is Atiku""

NC is gone, the killings that happened in that area has affected buharis vote.


Kwara is north central n Saraki worked for APC in 2015, he won't do so again.

Benue is gone.

Kogi is 66% for Atiku, The Igalas that own the state are very tired of buhari n even the state governor Bello comes from a minority tribe and he has been doing anyhiw, hes gone.

Jos n Nasarawa are Christian states where PDP n even GEJ win in 2015, They will go to PDP. Even their governor is going, Jeremiah Useni is talking over.

Niger is 50/50. IBB has clearly rejected buhari.

Abuja is 50/50

PassingShot:
It’s you guys linking Onnoghen’s case to election. The question is, should he be left to trample on the constitution? Has he accepted he “forgot” to declare those accounts or not?

The CJN has not accepted that he committed a crime.

Only apc online miscreants keep admitting it on his behalf.

PassingShot:
If you yhad a semblance of functioning brain, you’d realize that a sitting governor enjoys immunity which was accorded to one of your lords and savior Fayose.

And if u had any grey matter left in ur brain, you would also know that Babachair "grasscutter" laws has immunity too

moshoodn:
State elections and federal elections are on two different wavelengths...

Interest at those levels differ...

Jimi and Ambode were two sons of the soil contesting for a piece of pie at that level... Now, at the bigger level, interests will realign because of the VP slot...

Your analysis is like saying though two brothers in a family who fight to the death won't work in unison against an external intruder who wants to steal their whatever is precious to them.

""Your analysis is like saying though two brothers in a family who fight to the death won't work in unison against an external intruder who wants to steal their whatever is precious to them""

Are u saying Jimi Agbage will work for buhari?? , u must be mad Ooo.

In 2015 with Osinbanjo as Apc vice n a Hausa man as PDP vice, PDP got around 47% of Lagos state votes.

Do the math

PrecisionFx:
Ur madness is still on?

Atiku will clear;

Kogi.
Benue.
Taraba.
Nasarawa.
Jos.

Atiku will break even in;

Abuja.
Kwara.
Gombe.
Sokoto.
Niger.

Game over.

He will only clear your red mud village.up buhari

PrecisionFx:
""picking VP out of west was a greatest mistake PDP ever made""

How many votes did yorubas give buhari in 2015 (Wen they didn't know that he was a stark failure)?? 1.9 million votes.

Yorubas also gave PDP 1.3 million votes even though PDP vice was awusa n Apc vice was yoruba.

SW votes will be useless in the next elections, it will be a break even. The battle is in the NC.

To show how useless SW votes will be, Atiku didn't pick a SW candidate as VP, he didn't give SW Senate presidency or even ordinary Fed HOA speaker.

OBJ, Atiku, TY Danjuma, Babangida know very well that if they dknt pick an IGBO man as VP, PDP will be risking at least 3 million igbo votes at home in the SE n 4 million votes from IGBOS living across every state in Nigeria...Compare that with the possible votes yorubas could ever give them. That's why they stepped the yorubas aside.

The battle is in the north, Nowhere else.

.


you will learn on the hard way

Adebowale89:
.


you will learn on the hard way

Wen northern vote results will start trickling in, u will be shocked

PrecisionFx:
Wen northern vote results will start trickling in, u will be shocked

lols clown. if you're Igbo then i must have been wasting my time

you people political reasoning had never improve from the fiction that it is.

for your mind now, Atiku will defeat Buhari?

clown like KANU

Adebowale89:
lols clown. if you're Igbo then i must have been wasting my time


you people political reasoning had never improve from the fiction that it is.


for your mind now, Atiku will defeat Buhari?


clown like KANU

AFJ, this has nothing to do with tribe.

The north is relaxed n will vote according to their wishes, they are no longer fighting to get power back to the north.

PDP is back, NATIONWIDE

PrecisionFx:
AFJ, this has nothing to do with tribe.

The north is relaxed n will vote according to their wishes, they are no longer fighting to get power back to the north.

PDP is back, NATIONWIDE

Igbo and their comical relief. thanks for relieving my rough day with your joke

PrecisionFx:
""Your analysis is like saying though two brothers in a family who fight to the death won't work in unison against an external intruder who wants to steal their whatever is precious to them""

Are u saying Jimi Agbage will work for buhari?? , u must be mad Ooo.

In 2015 with Osinbanjo as Apc vice n a Hausa man as PDP vice, PDP got around 47% of Lagos state votes.

Do the math

If you can't reason deep, just stroll along..

PrecisionFx:
Omisore's voters will vote PDP.

Even with all the rigging, Osun elections was 50/50, clearly shows that the people have rejected Apc totally

Lmfao . I laugh in Ile Ife dialect

Lol .... analysis indeed. Wasted time and effort. "The day is coming, says the Lord" Jeremiah 31:31. E go be like Spartacus.

CilicMarin:
Abeg wetin be P34c3? you fit dm me the answer

Peace. (I've also initiated a DM to you, though; and my apologies for the delay.)

Respect, CilicMarin.

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P34c3!
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PassingShot:
That’s “PEACE”

Thanks.

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P34c3
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CilicMarin:
Oh! I see I have always wondered!

The human thought process can get unnecessarily complex sometimes! And you'd be surprised at the number of fellow posters who'd wondered the same as you, on this forum alone. So you won't walk alone.

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P34c3
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UNCL3:
If PMB really had a good plan for Nigeria and her educational sector
You would have not been so deficient in grammer

Like buhari like supporters.

LOL... Please watch out... your own poorly written grammar with wrong spellings + lack of punctuation is no less unpardonable 'fa.' Chai.

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P34c3
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duwdu:
LOL... Please watch out... your own poorly written grammar with wrong spellings + lack of punctuation is no less unpardonable 'fa.' Chai.

........
P34c3
.....
...

Who dont know grammar spelling?
I only wanted english teachers like you to do some more job.

duwdu:
LOL... Please watch out... your own poorly written grammar with wrong spellings + lack of punctuation is no less unpardonable 'fa.' Chai.

........
P34c3
.....
...

Also ensure to watch out too
''spelling'' not ''spellings''
Singular not plural
Lol.

Bookmarked

galantjoe:
Nonsense prediction PDP will win NC, NE, SE, SS, and SW

ipob why?

roscoman:
I salute the wisdom and intelligent qogent ( IQ) of these predictions. But I totally disagree with about 70% of your predictions to each of the geopolitical zones as far as corporate entity called Nigeria is concerned. To be factual with happenings, facts and figures and verifiable things in present Nigeria, if PMB / APC would win 2019 elections even with power of incumbency, vote buying and use of military with a slight margin that may not be up to 500,000 votes.

Firstly, PMB / APC and Atiku Abubakar both of them are from Northern region. These two aspirants would shared the votes from these geopolitical zones because they were both Northerners. Non of them can win 70% votes in all the 19 Northern states.

Secondly, SE / SS: These zones were strong hold of PDP even right from the time of OBJ, Yar' Adua as well as GEJ. So the zones is still the strong hold of PDP tomorrow. Forget about weather Akpabio, Orji Kalu, Ngige, Amechi comes from these zones. Akpabio and Orji Uzor Kalu joined APC because of various curruption charges hanging in there necks as a former governors so that EFCC would soft pedal on there curruption cases. SE SS knows that 2023 presidency promising them is not realistic. Ngige had contested in Anambra many times but he lost, it is not that Anambras don't like him to rule them as Governor but single factor that is working against Dr. Chris Ngige was that he belongs to APC political party. Remember Peter Obi is also a former governor and he performed wonderfully well it would also has a great impact on the election outcome. We should not forget that South East produced Vice President last during Sheu Shagari Administration. Are you saying IPOB would not have an influence on this coming election out come ?.So all these factors may not be in favour of PMB / APC.

Thirdly, SW is the only geopolitical zones that would votes according to there mind and conciense. What happened in Ekiti and Osun States during there gubernatorial elections is what can be called votes buying so it is not an election. I can bet you, if PDP is able to this year Presidental election those two Youruba south west states cases would be revisited. Now forget about Tinubu, Oshibajo , Fashola e.t.c. These guys can't determine Yoruba / SW votes and they know. Yoruba had been clamouring for restructuring of Nigeria since the 1993 annulment of Presidential election won by MKO Abiola. SW still calling for the restructuring even during the OBJ 8 years rule and that was why GEJ had to organised a conference then. I am stand to be corrected here, Yoruba is the most educated, exposed, enlightened geopolitical zones in Nigeria and they so must believe in structuring of Nigeria but they know it is the only way multi faceted problems confronting Nigeria as a Nation can be solved. So since Atiku Abubakar has also been clamouring for restructuring of Nigeria alone, Yoruba and SW zone would votes for him at least 65%. These 3 states would never dance to Tinubu, Oshibajo, Fashola e.t.c. tones, Yorubas would collect there money an votes for the party of there choice.

Generally, I have been asking people this question but up till now, nobody was able to answer me. The question is " Did PMB / APC honestly and actually deserve for a second term ?. PMB is the worts President Nigeria had ever produced. Look at recently Rotimi Amechi video recording even Tinubu that bank rolled about 50% PMB election in 2015 knows that PMB is not performing at all and many Nigerians had seen it clearly with different things that had happened in Nigeria within the last 4 years. I can tell you, that if Nigerians was asked to rates GEJ & BUHARI administration, PMB can not score 40%. I am stand to be corrected, the way a 10 years old boy from Southwest Yoruba extraction reason and see things logically would be different from that of a 40years old northerner because of our educational background, exposure e.t.c.

Finally, US government was saying just yesterday that this 2019 Presidential election results may be declared in conclusive based on the premises that once APC / PMB sees some results declare which is not in APC favour, then they would declared it in conclusive election. Nigerians would reacted which may cause problems and International communities would never Nigeria to go into another civil war. So if care is not taking, APC / PMB may be disgrace out of that sit. Because if he do anyhow, he would be treated anyhow.

I stopped reading your analysis too after saying pmb and Atiku would share the votes in the northwest and north east. As much as I believe the op was generous on the figures he alloted to Buhari in the ss/se, same applies to the figures he also alloted to Atiku in the ne and nw. Buhari would trunce the Atiku in the northwest with at least 70:30 in favour of Buhari. Atiku has no popularity here, he's corrup, not good Muslim and he's utterances didn't help him. The only States in the northwest Atiku would comfortably win in the ne is taraba and may be Adamawa with slight margin.
But Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe, borno, goes to Buhari with wide margin.