MTN on Wednesday said the listing price was set 90 naira, determined from private over-the-counter share deal by existing shareholders over the past six months. It has said it would list 20.4 billion shares on the Nigerian bourse. The price values the telecoms company at 1.84 trillion naira ($6 billion).

MTN, owned 78.8% by South Africa’s MTN Group, has been one of the main beneficiaries of Nigeria’s push to liberalise its economy over the past two decades. But it has come under increased pressure from the government to boost local ownership.

The company also said the Nigerian unit will raise debt, adding that the total level rose 44% to 252 billion naira ($823.66 million) in the first quarter.

“This is just the beginning, we still intend to pursue a future public offer giving more Nigerians greater access to the MTN opportunity,” Ferdi Moolman, chief executive of MTN Nigeria, said.

MTN decided to list its local company in Nigeria in 2016 after agreeing to pay a $1.7 billion fine to settle a SIM card dispute with the government. Earlier, the company said it planned to list in the first half of 2019.

The company said capital expenditure in the first quarter, rose to 63 billion naira, the bulk of which went to upgrade its network, up from 18 billion naira same period last year.

Service revenue grew 13.4% to 282 billion naira in the first quarter, driven by a rise in voice and data income and the addition of 2.1 million mobile subscribers.

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), a measure of operating profit, reached 150.4 billion naira ($492 mln) in the three months to March 2019, up from 123 billion naira a year earlier, MTN said.

MTN said it targets a dividend payout ratio of at least 80% of its net income in the medium term.


https://www.cnbcafrica.com/news/west-africa/2019/05/15/what-you-need-to-know-about-mtn-nigerias-plans-to-list-shares-in-lagos-in-6-bln-flotation/amp/

https://guardian.ng/business-services/mtn-earned-n453bn-in-2018/

Sorry for the earlier figure stated. Carried away with the 453b

RabbiDoracle:


Don't mind him.

Q1 2019 PAT was N48.4b.

Try and extrapolate this to 4 quarters. And it could come lower possibly.

I don't do IPO. I wish people can learn from times before 2008 crash.

But wetin concern me. No be my money!

currentprice:


how 85.6? u mean 22.5

Oga C.P. pls do you mind explaining how u calculater 22.5? It's not clear to me. Thanks.

pluto09:



You are well appreciated, thanks.

My Pleasure !!

By the way, I have just been informed that the BOD of MTN Nigeria recommended a whopping 111.6B as interim dividend for FY 2018. ...an amount up by approx 123% from the 50B 2017 YE figure !!
The dividend was paid in 2 instalments... with N73B of it, paid on the 11th of Feb, 2019.
The company has a traditional policy of given out no more than 80% of its total annual earnings as dividends !! ...it would be interesting to see that maintained post listing.

On issues related to the N330B fine imposed on it by the FG in 2015, the company has paid down 2/3(approx 66.67%) of it after reaching a consensus with the government for a spread in payments across 7 instalments.
The sum of N110B was paid down in 2018, following from a remittance of same amount btw 2016 and 2017.

On concerns related to other debt burden, the company's current ratio and other debt servicing financial indices is @ a comfortable zone for me. I also like their cost to income peg including other KEY deriavable earnings line like RoIC, ROAE, ROAA, AsY, ENTERPRISE VALUE, REVENUE MARGIN, NET MARGIN and EM.
As I said ealier, time will not permit me to give a through and through break down of their financial print.

Bottom line:
Onegentleguy is 88% inclined to aligning with the listing come tomorrow.

CAVEAT: NOT to be infered as any sought of recommendation.
My advise: Pls follow ur instinct.

Salah.

^^
Yeah, Selah!

prof2007:


Check this post:

https://www.nairaland.com/5188859/how-buy-mtn-shares-nigerian#78407888

Thank you very much.

RabbiDoracle:


Don't mind him.

Q1 2019 PAT was N48.4b.

Try and extrapolate this to 4 quarters. And it could come lower possibly.

I don't do IPO. I wish people can learn from times before 2008 crash.

But wetin concern me. No be my money!

I am just worried that Book value, EPS, PE, debt to assets and all other important stuffs were not mentioned, just basic stuff that don't mean anything or could mean something. Lol!

Make una trade with caution! I rather wait for their detailed Financial statement, than buy now on speculation.

RabbiDoracle:


That was what starcomms used. They were reeling out losses(LAT and not PAT) and they kept using EBITDA because this was positive. All men went to their tents when EBITDA started showing negative.

Sometimes @deepsuck says the truth about scammers trying to turn people to shellholders.

IPO ~ It's Probably Overpriced.

What a wise man.

Caution. Caution. Caution.

GonFreecss1:


I am just worried that Book value, EPS, PE, debt to assets and all other important stuffs were not mentioned, just basic stuff that don't mean anything or could mean something. Lol!

Make una trade with caution! I rather wait for their detailed Financial statement, than buy now on speculation.

I agree with u bro. i ask for the "Net asset" nobody can post it.

RabbiDoracle:


Don't mind him.

Q1 2019 PAT was N48.4b.

Try and extrapolate this to 4 quarters. And it could come lower possibly.

I don't do IPO. I wish people can learn from times before 2008 crash.

But wetin concern me. No be my money!

with a FY2018 PAT of N145b and 1st quarter of N48b extrapolating, the best that could come from MTNN FY2019 wld be N200b which wld give EPS of N10 which gives P/ E ratio of 9, with a payout ratio of 80% dat is N8/ share at introductory price of N90 gives a dividend yield of 8.88%, the PBV while not available wld not look good also considering that the company is quite leveraged due to easy access to debt (probably one of the best entity any bank in Nigeria can lend to presently)and hence it is exposed to easy and favourable credit terms.

In view of the fact that the above figures qouted are the best estimate (which means the figure can only get worse and not better) then in my opinion the price of N90 had already priced in ALL FAVOURABLE FACTORS.

The rational decision (from fundamental perspective) wld be to leeave the thing alone becos there are other well tested shares in the market with more favourable metrics like div yield of 14%, p/bv less than 1, P/E of sub 5, and also favourable liquidity.

However i think from technical / jijo perspective it wld be a good one considering the hype and sentiment surrounding it

Finally personally i would take the advise of one prof here who said it is a dangerous venture to pursue a moving train.

my prayer is that the listing should bring in more players to the NSE which could possibly rub off on other shares

robobo:


with a FY2018 PAT of N145b and 1st quarter of N48b extrapolating, the best that could come from MTNN FY2019 wld be N200b which wld give EPS of N10 which gives P/ E ratio of 9, with a payout ratio of 80% dat is N8/ share at introductory price of N90 gives a dividend yield of 8.88%, the PBV while not available wld not look good also considering that the company is quite leveraged due to easy access to debt (probably one of the best entity any bank in Nigeria can lend to presently)and hence it is exposed to easy and favourable credit terms.

In view of the fact that the above figures qouted are the best estimate (which means the figure can only get worse and not better) then in my opinion the price of N90 had already priced in ALL FAVOURABLE FACTORS.

The rational decision (from fundamental perspective) wld be to leeave the thing alone becos there are other well tested shares in the market with more favourable metrics like div yield of 14%, p/bv less than 1, P/E of sub 5, and also favourable liquidity.

u have said it all. best post have seen on this MTN issue.

this will give clue to pple on whether to buy or not tomorrow.

if they can provide the asset and libilities side i could check my bedsheet for the fair price but not enought numbers to use for now

currentprice:


I agree with u bro. i ask for the "Net asset" nobody can post it.

Bro. Hehehehehehe. Longest time.

If OGG is right about their PAT last year being 140+ billion naira, they don't have any reason to be trading at 90 naira. Fair value is probably below 50 naira considering the current bear market and comparing with a slightly overvalued company like GT bank, and a deliciously priced Zenith bank.

The fact that the no one knows the Net asset, as you said makes me think this was very deliberate on their part, probably advice from their analysts.

This is not an MTN opportunity for Nigerians, this is an opportunity for MTN shareholders to cash out large!

GonFreecss1:


I am just worried that Book value, EPS, PE, debt to assets and all other important stuffs were not mentioned, just basic stuff that don't mean anything or could mean something. Lol!

Make una trade with caution! I rather wait for their detailed Financial statement, than buy now on speculation.

The problem is not even whether there are worries.
...Yes there are worries, but it's clear(at least from a result proof perspective) that the pros far outweigh the cons with the company.
The problem would be whether u can even see it to buy.
...and here's why;
The listing tomorrow shall be by introduction, and NOT by public listing. Put differently, the listing will only present a medium for the existing MTN Nigerian shareholders to trade their stakes should they so desire. So there is NO provision for any additional sale to the public.
What can u make of it; DEARTH(scarcity) of shares.
A brief;
MTN Nigeria investors own just a paltry 19.4% of the total equity. ...with the south African group and other key PE/FPIs holding the balance of majority stake.
Of the 19.4% Nigerian stake, about 13.5% are currently in the hands of a class of HNIs. So by inference, only just about 5.9% of that figure will likely exchange hands in the near term.
When u extrapolate, that computes to just over 1.2B of the near 20.4B units, planed for listing.
Again, scarcity is the word... which should drive up prices to rocket levels in the short term. Expectedly, by 1.5-2x multiples.
The KEY would be knowing when to leave the train should one manage to key in.
Money can be made by those who can 'play their way around'. That said, I also think it'll be best for those who can't stand the heat, to stay off the kitchen.

Bottom line:
The probability of a double up ROI is nearer to 1 than zero in the short term.
It is not for nothing that the company intends to pursue a public offer(PO) in the near future. Sure u can read btw the lines there.
Guys need to be settled. Everything is well crafted out.
It's time to align and follow the money. ...but then again; due diligence should still remain ur 1st priority.

My advise: Pls follow ur instinct.

No further comment on MTN.
Cheers.

robobo:


with a FY2018 PAT of N145b and 1st quarter of N48b extrapolating, the best that could come from MTNN FY2019 wld be N200b which wld give EPS of N10 which gives P/ E ratio of 9, with a payout ratio of 80% dat is N8/ share at introductory price of N90 gives a dividend yield of 8.88%, the PBV while not available wld not look good also considering that the company is quite leveraged due to easy access to debt (probably one of the best entity any bank in Nigeria can lend to presently)and hence it is exposed to easy and favourable credit terms.

In view of the fact that the above figures qouted are the best estimate (which means the figure can only get worse and not better) then in my opinion the price of N90 had already priced in ALL FAVOURABLE FACTORS.

The rational decision (from fundamental perspective) wld be to leeave the thing alone becos there are other well tested shares in the market with more favourable metrics like div yield of 14%, p/bv less than 1, P/E of sub 5, and also favourable liquidity.

However i think from technical / jijo perspective it wld be a good one considering the hype and sentiment surrounding it

Finally personally i would take the advise of one prof here who said it is a dangerous venture to pursue a moving train.

my prayer is that the listing should bring in more players to the NSE which could possibly rub off on other shares

Roger that!!!

robobo:
my prayer is that the listing should bring in more players to the NSE which could possibly rub off on other shares

This is the aspect I love most in your writeup.
Let them bring it on, at least if they cant see mtn to buy, they'll probably divert the fund to other stocks.

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/26190_CHAMS_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MAY_2019.pdf
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/25430_CHAMS_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2019.pdf

I think that these people are trying to confuse person oooo. I do not understand, can someone please help me to interpret this NOTIFICATION.

MTN, Glo, Airtel and 9Mobile. I think MTN is the least suspect out of these lot. The biggest one that will soon come is Dangote Refinery and Petrochemical Plc.

Mcy56:

This is the aspect I love most in your writeup.
Let them bring it on, at least if they cant see mtn to buy, they'll probably divert the fund to other stocks.

robobo:


with a FY2018 PAT of N145b and 1st quarter of N48b extrapolating, the best that could come from MTNN FY2019 wld be N200b which wld give EPS of N10 which gives P/ E ratio of 9, with a payout ratio of 80% dat is N8/ share at introductory price of N90 gives a dividend yield of 8.88%, the PBV while not available wld not look good also considering that the company is quite leveraged due to easy access to debt (probably one of the best entity any bank in Nigeria can lend to presently)and hence it is exposed to easy and favourable credit terms.

In view of the fact that the above figures qouted are the best estimate (which means the figure can only get worse and not better) then in my opinion the price of N90 had already priced in ALL FAVOURABLE FACTORS.

The rational decision (from fundamental perspective) wld be to leeave the thing alone becos there are other well tested shares in the market with more favourable metrics like div yield of 14%, p/bv less than 1, P/E of sub 5, and also favourable liquidity.

However i think from technical / jijo perspective it wld be a good one considering the hype and sentiment surrounding it

Finally personally i would take the advise of one prof here who said it is a dangerous venture to pursue a moving train.

my prayer is that the listing should bring in more players to the NSE which could possibly rub off on other shares

Your call on leaving it alone is the same I have.

In the Serengeti the best catch is gotten when you stalk and Chase with all animals unaware.

Now everyone is looking and wanting to jump in. I usually stay out.

People can make money from the stock but there are other tested companies out there trading at a discount. I cannot come and kill myself.

RabbiDoracle:


Your call on leaving it alone is the same I have.

In the Serengeti the best catch is gotten when you stalk and Chase with all animals unaware.

Now everyone is looking and wanting to jump in. I usually stay out.

People can make money from the stock but there are other tested companies out there trading at a discount. I cannot come and kill myself.

Nuff said! 100%

stcool:
People will make money from MTN listing tomorrow...
Just make sure you have a bench mark for you buy, mine is set at N100, but with the buzz I am seeing then may be N100-120 I will buy.

But I am sure people, MTN will make most people very rich.

Must you buy?

You go sabi rush for bus o.

One thing I learnt after 2008 financial crash was PATIENCE. I think I have loads of it.

After the nuptial flights of the termites, the frogs start warming up to do Owambe!

After some years, we will know how far.

RabbiDoracle:


Your call on leaving it alone is the same I have.

In the Serengeti the best catch is gotten when you stalk and Chase with all animals unaware.

Now everyone is looking and wanting to jump in. I usually stay out.

People can make money from the stock but there are other tested companies out there trading at a discount. I cannot come and kill myself.

My Oga like Mendes wld say im an old man and i dont have d strength to struggle with agile and able bodied men (whether to enter or to exit)

My preference is for slow and steady not fast and furious.

The thing about life (which the NSE completely mirrors) is that it always present ENOUGH opportunity. if u miss one just wait PATIENTLY and be PREPARED for the next one, for it wld come sooner than you think.

rebekah2011:
https://guardian.ng/business-services/mtn-earned-n453bn-in-2018/

Sorry for the earlier figure stated. Carried away with the 453b

Take kolanut. Correct guy!

Thought you wanted to mislead.

robobo:


My Oga like Mendes wld say im an old man and i dont have d strength to struggle with agile and able bodied men (whether to enter or to exit)

My preference is for slow and steady not fast and furious.

The thing about life (which the NSE completely mirrors) is that it always present ENOUGH opportunity. if u miss one just wait PATIENTLY and be PREPARED for the next one, for it wld come sooner than you think.

Yes o.

And with the way the market is, there is money everywhere. So keep packing. And when the oyibos wake up, you will be in Bora Bora sending your sell mandates and sipping coconut water. Don't forget your sunglasses then

RabbiDoracle:


Must you buy?

You go sabi rush for bus o.

One thing I learnt after 2008 financial crash was PATIENCE. I think I have loads of it.

After the nuptial flights of the termites, the frogs start warming up to do Owambe!

After some years, we will know how far.

My Oga,
No be say I must buy o! But this MTN listing be like NAHCO that year. The money I made from the IPO, bonus and price appreciation that record is hard

I will try my luck tomorrow, if I no see buy I go wait. Meanwhile Oga abeg help me look DF well, the way I dey load am fear they catch me.

I am confident of N21-N25 or is there anything I am missing. If Olam can pay that I will be almost OK for the year.

RabbiDoracle:


Yes o.

And with the way the market is, there is money everywhere. So keep packing. And when the oyibos wake up, you will be in Bora Bora sending your sell mandates and sipping coconut water. Don't forget your sunglasses then

My Oga i ask a question of u some moons back but didnt get a response

what metrics do u use to measure when price had gone ahead of value

i presently use 5 year average p/bv though it had failed me on some few occassions so i am looking to compare

currentprice:


I agree with u bro. i ask for the "Net asset" nobody can post it.

You can have a look at this,

pluto09:



I don't do IPO myself.
This one might be different if I am convinced by their number.

The question I have to ask is this:

The fine that FG billed MTN, has it been paid? Which entity will pay it? SA or the Nigerian entity upon listing?

If it is the Nigerian entity, won't there be extraordinary item/provision from their profit to pay off this?

Won't this make them start having a loss till it is finished being paid?

What was their agreement with FG on this issue? Was it we list first and then we will discuss later?

This isn't a text for you not to buy o.

stcool:


My Oga,
No be say I must buy o! But this MTN listing be like NAHCO that year. The money I made from the IPO, bonus and price appreciation that record is hard

I will try my luck tomorrow, if I no see buy I go wait. Meanwhile Oga abeg help me look DF well, the way I dey load am fear they catch me.

I am confident of N21-N25 or is there anything I am missing. If Olam can pay that I will be almost OK for the year.

Abeg make una help us look this Dangote flour oooo before water go pass garri.

Anyone that has useful information about what the acqusition will amount to pers hare , let them share ooo.

Honestly, I want to commit on it.

RabbiDoracle:


The question I have to ask is this:

The fine that FG billed MTN, has it been paid? Which entity will pay it? SA or the Nigerian entity upon listing?

If it is the Nigerian entity, won't there be extraordinary item/provision from their profit to pay off this?

Won't this make them start having a loss till it is finished being paid?

What was their agreement with FG on this issue? Was it we list first and then we will discuss later?

This isn't a text for you not to buy o.

I think I have a report on that, will post when I can lay my hand on it.
About 2/3 or there about have been paid and they have a well laid out plan on how and when to pay the balance

rebekah2011:
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/26190_CHAMS_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_MAY_2019.pdf
http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/25430_CHAMS_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_MARCH_2019.pdf

I think that these people are trying to confuse person oooo. I do not understand, can someone please help me to interpret this NOTIFICATION.

CHAMS plc is the parent company and that is what is listed on the NSE... And it has a positive retained earnings and that is where you are getting the .03k dividend from for Yr end.

That is all that should bother you now.
I Keep loading ...the news I want to hear is not out yet!

stcool:


My Oga,
No be say I must buy o! But this MTN listing be like NAHCO that year. The money I made from the IPO, bonus and price appreciation that record is hard

I will try my luck tomorrow, if I no see buy I go wait. Meanwhile Oga abeg help me look DF well, the way I dey load am fear they catch me.

I am confident of N21-N25 or is there anything I am missing. If Olam can pay that I will be almost OK for the year.

i think ur figure is correct going by current financials

where the risk is largely situated is if Alhaji does not accept the offer or ask for higher price and olam rejected (note it is only the N26 that is binding on Olam) if u also rememeber something similar happened to Alhaji of recent when he made a binding offer for a cement coy / plant on southafrica and the coy requested for higher pricing which Alhaji did not agree with hence the deal failed.

a lesser risk is that of long drawn / prolonged payment even if the deal scales through.

i think this two risk is what is being priced in and why the price on NSE is not closing in on the N21-25

so the question for you wld be how SURE are you that Alhaji wld accept the N26 / N130b offer

and are you ready to wait for the prolonged period before the cash is paid if the deal scales through? (particulary in this period of cash being king?)

N.b im a foot deep so my view might be tinted / biased

robobo:


i think ur figure is correct going by current financials

where the risk is largely situated is if Alhaji does not accept the offer or ask for higher price and olam rejected (note it is only the N26 that is binding on Olam) if u also rememeber something similar happened to Alhaji of recent when he made a binding offer for a cement coy / plant on southafrica and the coy requested for higher pricing which Alhaji did not agree with hence the deal failed.

a lesser risk is that of long drawn / prolonged payment even if the deal scales through.

i think this two risk is what is being priced in and why the price on NSE is not closing in on the N21-25

so the question for you wld be how SURE are you that Alhaji wld accept the N26 / N130b offer

and are you ready to wait for the prolonged period before the cash is paid if the deal scales through? (particulary in this period of cash being king?)

N.b im a foot deep so my view might be tinted / biased

If it is N26 and above... I will make a kill. If it about waiting for payment. I base in Lagos I go pack to the registrars office and I sabi shout well o! dem go think say na me be the highest shareholder!

Anyways at this price, I am willing to wait. Where am I rushing to?