HAS THE FORUM TURNED INTO COMPETITION?
With amusement, I have read various posts in the past couple of days. I keep wondering, if there is a prize to earn if anyone could predict accurately the reversal point for GTB? Will the right person be awarded a $50,000 prize or nothing? If there is no award, then count me out. But if there is any and is less than $50,000 - still count me out. However, if the award is over $50,000, then I AM IN!

Even at that, can I accurately tell the exact price point the stock can reverse & begin the rally? In all honestly, I cannot. I can only predict a possible zone based on past data and as we know, "Past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes" - says disclaimer from many professional analysts.

If people that have been there severally could claim past data I wanted to use is not always reliable to give a particular result, then why should I be 100% sure of my reversal zone? Based on my experience trading stocks (NSE, NASDAQ/NYSE, FTSE), FOREX, CRYPTO... I can categorically state nobody can predict exact price point a reversal can occur. AS A RESULT, I AM OUT OF ANY COMPETITION ALTOGETHER.

My little contributions are to provide readers quality and educative information. With proper money management, these info will make many people money and everyone will be happy for it.

Back to GTB, the stock is now within what I termed Rejection Zone 1. I expect to see market reaction in an attempt to reverse the trend. If this level is violated, it will expose the stock price to the Critical buying zone where long term buyers could benefit greatly for buying-to-keep. Rejection Price 2 mean to look and reconsider the fundamentals of the bank all over.

for bigger chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/vIZnu9Jq/

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

[quote author=heavenisreal18 post=81348827][/quote].
Ok. Just take it easy ehn.
Please, take my oga @emmanuelewumi that replied you here very serious, follow up with him and copy him for guidance on those shares. He knows much about these things.
Cheers!

RabbiDoracle:
So long as your theory will make you money in future and our own tested knowledge is still making us money, why you dey wahala yourself?

Exactly.
Sir no need replying him again. Let individuals follow what works best for him/her.
He's just trying hard to prove a point, he's likely not going to see from any other person's angle no matter how you tried.

meshpips:
I won't bother taking you through the details because you are not humble enough yet to learn.
Next person please! And kindly ensure that your knowledge of maths is not sickly before you attempt to take on me.

This really cracked me up. You get mouth ehnnn.
Na my ogas you dey talk to like this? Words always have a way of getting back at someone you know.
That was how one guy insulted OGG but ended up soliciting his assistance, you see.
I'll say you're the one that needs be humble here, no need to address anyone rudely or shove your opinion down people's throat.

meshpips:


Your "prof" of statistics wey nor understand the dynamics of a simple mean reversion model.

I await your own trade recommendation on gtbank sir and please be ready to put up a good defence of whatever price level you're gonna mention.

Let me give you a tip : mention the same level as I did. That's how to be smart. If not, them fit fall your hand o!

If I beat you now, dem go talk child abuse

Agbalowomeri:
If I beat you now, dem go talk child abuse

Or adult abuse

OTHER FUGAZ ANALYSIS...
They are also almost the same with GTB. Many are within the Rejection Price Zone 1 except a stronger ACCESS BANK as discussed on Aug 11 titled: "4 Bank Stocks to keep in your watch list..."

ACCESS: https://www.tradingview.com/x/pik4o1at/
FBNH: https://www.tradingview.com/x/07j8nitc/
UBA: https://www.tradingview.com/x/DNXD1rU2/
ZENITH: https://www.tradingview.com/x/ksgByoq2/

Mcy56:

Exactly.
Sir no need replying him again. Let individuals follow what works best for him/her.
He's just trying hard to prove a point, he's likely not going to see from any other person's angle no matter how you tried.

I will reply him. He can't be better than Eniyanman on SMN who modelled stock prices as a sinusoidal wave with repeating patterns and then posed a question on such.

So this one small.

BullBearMkt:
HAS THE FORUM TURNED INTO COMPETITION?
With amusement, I have read various posts in the past couple of days. I keep wondering, if there is a prize to earn if anyone could predict accurately the reversal point for GTB? Will the right person be awarded a $50,000 prize or nothing? If there is no award, then count me out. But if there is any and is less than $50,000 - still count me out. However, if the award is over $50,000, then I AM IN!

Even at that, can I accurately tell the exact price point the stock can reverse & begin the rally? In all honestly, I cannot. I can only predict a possible zone based on past data and as we know, "Past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes" - says disclaimer from many professional analysts.

If people that have been there severally could claim past data I wanted to use is not always reliable to give a particular result, then why should I be 100% sure of my reversal zone? Based on my experience trading stocks (NSE, NASDAQ/NYSE, FTSE), FOREX, CRYPTO... I can categorically state nobody can predict exact price point a reversal can occur. AS A RESULT, I AM OUT OF ANY COMPETITION ALTOGETHER.

My little contributions are to provide readers quality and educative information. With proper money management, these info will make many people money and everyone will be happy for it.

Back to GTB, the stock is now within what I termed Rejection Zone 1. I expect to see market reaction in an attempt to reverse the trend. If this level is violated, it will expose the stock price to the Critical buying zone where long term buyers could benefit greatly for buying-to-keep. Rejection Price 2 mean to look and reconsider the fundamentals of the bank all over.

for bigger chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/vIZnu9Jq/

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

I wonder why someone who claims to be so GOOD is running after people's capital/commissions, when he can use such superficial knowledge to make cool cash then people will run after him instead. Me thinks the dude is looking for some cool capital to fly overseas and enjoy life. CAVEAT EMPTOR!

BullBearMkt:
HAS THE FORUM TURNED INTO COMPETITION?
With amusement, I have read various posts in the past couple of days. I keep wondering, if there is a prize to earn if anyone could predict accurately the reversal point for GTB? Will the right person be awarded a $50,000 prize or nothing? If there is no award, then count me out. But if there is any and is less than $50,000 - still count me out. However, if the award is over $50,000, then I AM IN!

Even at that, can I accurately tell the exact price point the stock can reverse & begin the rally? In all honestly, I cannot. I can only predict a possible zone based on past data and as we know, "Past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes" - says disclaimer from many professional analysts.

If people that have been there severally could claim past data I wanted to use is not always reliable to give a particular result, then why should I be 100% sure of my reversal zone? Based on my experience trading stocks (NSE, NASDAQ/NYSE, FTSE), FOREX, CRYPTO... I can categorically state nobody can predict exact price point a reversal can occur. AS A RESULT, I AM OUT OF ANY COMPETITION ALTOGETHER.

My little contributions are to provide readers quality and educative information. With proper money management, these info will make many people money and everyone will be happy for it.

Back to GTB, the stock is now within what I termed Rejection Zone 1. I expect to see market reaction in an attempt to reverse the trend. If this level is violated, it will expose the stock price to the Critical buying zone where long term buyers could benefit greatly for buying-to-keep. Rejection Price 2 mean to look and reconsider the fundamentals of the bank all over.

for bigger chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/vIZnu9Jq/

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

Thank you @ BBM.

We know those who are genuine and the those who are fake.
Any one who says he can accurately predict the exact point or price a stock or market will reverse its direction is either a fake or is new to the market.

I was surprised that oracle allows someone without a portfolio to drag him into that unnecessary game of predicting a reversal point for GTB.

You are doing a good job and your TA analysis is always very educative.

I just ran analysis from 21st June 2010 till 31st July 2019 (omitting small part of 2014 due to a significantly reduced trading volume)

Findings:

For 9 years time frame

Using HLC Prices [Mean price=25.7, SD= 9.37]

Using VWAP [Mean Price = 18.64, SD= 3.76]


From 2nd Jan 2019 till 31st July 2019

7 months time frame

Using HLC Prices [Mean price=33.33, SD= 2.95]

Using VWAP [Mean Price = 34.35, SD= 1]


From 2nd of Jan 2018 till 31st of July 2019

1.6 years time frame

Using HLC Prices [Mean price=41, SD= 4.95]

Using VWAP [Mean Price = 45, SD= 2.58 ]


Using just the VWAP for explanation,

For the 9 year time frame, it shows that (Using Normal probability distribution)

66.26% of trades done in the 9 year period was between the price of - 1 SD to +1 SD.

-1SD = mean price - 3.76
And this gives 14.88

+1SD= mean price + 3.76
And this gives 22.4

It is like saying that 66.26% of the trade happened at this price band (N14. 88 to N22.4) for the 9 year period.

When you look at - 2SD to +2SD, this means that thtr trades happened between

-2SD = mean price - 2*3.76 and that gives N11.12

+2SD=mean price + 2*3.76 and that gives N26. 16

Therefore to accommodate the wider band of 11.12 to 26.16, the percentage increases to 95.44%.


If we are to use 2019 (7months) data,

VWAP mean = 34.35
SD=1

For a current price of N26 of GTB, it shows that the price has deviated from the 7 months Mean price of N34. 5 by

[(26 - 34.5)/1]= - 8.35

This is 8.35 numbers of standard deviations below the he mean Price.


If we are to use 2018 to 2019 (1.6 years) data,

VWAP mean = 45
SD=2.58

For a current price of N26 of GTB, it shows that the price has deviated from the 1.6 years Mean price of N45 by

[(26 - 45)/2.58]= - 7.36

This is 7.36 numbers of standard deviations below the Mean price.


If GTB is driven higher and it gets to N60 considering the 1.6 years data,

It simply means that the price has moved
[(60 - 45)/2.58] = +5.8

So what is there for GTB to trade at 5.8SD?

RabbiDoracle:

I just ran analysis from 21st June 2010 till 31st July 2019 (omitting small part of 2014 due to a significantly reduced trading volume)

Findings:

For 9 years time frame

Using VWAP [Mean Price = 18.64, SD= 3.76]

VWAP mean price is what sir? 18.64 abi?

Yet you have been talking my post down since I came on this thread abi?

I say throat you say neck. Now we are almost getting on the same page.

Another word of advice sir:

The financial market is an unending continuum like we have in fluid mechanics. You always need to refer to a DATUM level or specify the segment of the continuum being analyzed.

How "tall" is tall without referring to a datum?
What is the exact size of a PIECE of paper?

Y'all said I had zero knowledge about the stock exchange market. Yet I have been privileged to take smbcapital's course on equities. Na beans?

I have spent the past twelve plus years of my life trading full time and you people think I haven't learnt lessons from the market.

What would have been wrong with simply saying "we will keep an eye on your analysis" ?

@northeastern has not made a single trade call since I have been on this thread yet he has the effrontery to call me a scam. Has he met me personally or had any dealing with me in the past? So what in the heavens gave him such audacity to spew such?

If only you people treated me a little bit more kindly we wouldn't be bickering over non-issues.

There is a stock that has done 2 consecutive bullish months and has exceeded its volume high for the past ten years. This same stock has taken out the previous 2019 high. Isn't that information people could make a lot of money from?

Instead una carry dey tell me say I nor sabi.

Anyways, I'm not the way many of you see me.

RabbiDoracle:

I just ran analysis from 21st June 2010 till 31st July 2019

One more piece of information that will be helpful to you attempt at using maths to trade the financial market.

The AVERAGE of a data set can NOT be HIGHER than the highest number in the data set. The converse is also true for the average relative to the lowest number in the data set.

This is the simple reason you couldn't arrive at 19.00 region when you used 2019 prices as your Supreme data set.

I'm writing this for others that might have been at a loss wondering where our VWAP is giving us different results.

Enjoy your day sir.

meshpips:


VWAP mean price is what sir? 18.64 abi?

Yet you have been talking my post down since I came on this thread abi?

I say throat you say neck. Now we are almost getting on the same page.

Another word of advice sir:

The financial market is an unending continuum like we have in fluid mechanics. You always need to refer to a DATUM level or specify the segment of the continuum being analyzed.

How "tall" is tall without referring to a datum?
What is the exact size of a PIECE of paper?

Y'all said I had zero knowledge about the stock exchange market. Yet I have been privileged to take smbcapital's course on equities. Na beans?

I have spent the past twelve plus years of my life trading full time and you people think I haven't learnt lessons from the market.

What would have been wrong with simply saying "we will keep an eye on your analysis" ?

@northeastern has not made a single trade call since I have been on this thread yet he has the effrontery to call me a scam. Has he met me personally or had any dealing with me in the past? So what in the heavens gave him such audacity to spew such?

If only you people treated me a little bit more kindly we wouldn't be bickering over non-issues.

There is a stock that has done 2 consecutive bullish months and has exceeded its volume high for the past ten years. This same stock has taken out the previous 2019 high. Isn't that information people could make a lot of money from?

Instead una carry dey tell me say I nor sabi.

Anyways, I'm not the way many of you see me.

And I'm saying that your Datum is arbitrary!

You are yet to say why you chose 2009 till 2019. Why did you chose earlier dates?

I just gave you analysis of 7months, 1.6 years and 9 years. All have different Mean. So why do you think your mean is the right one?

Don't think people don't know statistics here. People may be quiet and not talk, but they know much more than we do know.

There is an 'eureka' in what what BBM posted. Let me check his chart and reply him.

BullBearMkt:
HAS THE FORUM TURNED INTO COMPETITION?
With amusement, I have read various posts in the past couple of days. I keep wondering, if there is a prize to earn if anyone could predict accurately the reversal point for GTB? Will the right person be awarded a $50,000 prize or nothing? If there is no award, then count me out. But if there is any and is less than $50,000 - still count me out. However, if the award is over $50,000, then I AM IN!

Even at that, can I accurately tell the exact price point the stock can reverse & begin the rally? In all honestly, I cannot. I can only predict a possible zone based on past data and as we know, "Past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes" - says disclaimer from many professional analysts.

If people that have been there severally could claim past data I wanted to use is not always reliable to give a particular result, then why should I be 100% sure of my reversal zone? Based on my experience trading stocks (NSE, NASDAQ/NYSE, FTSE), FOREX, CRYPTO... I can categorically state nobody can predict exact price point a reversal can occur. AS A RESULT, I AM OUT OF ANY COMPETITION ALTOGETHER.

My little contributions are to provide readers quality and educative information. With proper money management, these info will make many people money and everyone will be happy for it.

Back to GTB, the stock is now within what I termed Rejection Zone 1. I expect to see market reaction in an attempt to reverse the trend. If this level is violated, it will expose the stock price to the Critical buying zone where long term buyers could benefit greatly for buying-to-keep. Rejection Price 2 mean to look and reconsider the fundamentals of the bank all over.

for bigger chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/vIZnu9Jq/

PLAN YOUR TRADES AND TRADE YOUR PLANS

Looking at your chart on GTB, I saw that in 2016, the bullish run started then. So I just ran a check using that 2016 as a reference point and using my 'sickly' VWAP maths.


These are my findings:

From 4th Jan 2016 till July 2019 (bottom of the last bear run to a 'perceived' bottom of the next bear run)

Using HLC Prices [Mean price=32.1, SD= 9.23]

Using VWAP [Mean Price = 25.41, SD= 5.85]

From the VWAP, GTB neared the mean price of 25.41 when it traded at 25.70

If GTB reverses from here and doesn't breach that mean price(between last bear end and another bear end), then it shows:

(1) that prices actually revert to Mean between start of a bull run, peak and then decline to the end of a bear run. This should be the reference point and not any arbitrary point like Meshpip chose.

If it actually breaks the 4-year Mean Price of 25.41 and goes - 1SD away from it, this means that the price at that point will be (25.41 - 5.85). This is N19.56. This means that:

(2) Meshpip will be correct in his forecast but doesn't know the reference timeframe.


So we shall all await to see if GTB breaks the 4 year mean price of N25. 41.

When a young lad is felling a tree, it is the elderly person that knows where the tree will land.

I dey wait una. Small by small una don dey reach the same page with me.

I will be patient with you guys. My people say person wey dey stammer sabi him papa name, just give am time, he go pronounce am fully.

I will be patient and wait. I understand as e dey do una.

Two facts remain incontrovertible

1. Stocks are subject to the dance of the index

2. Human behaviour is never an exact science that can be predicted with certainty

Back to my village

RabbiDoracle:


Looking at your chart on GTB, I saw that in 2016, the bullish run started then. So I just ran a check using that 2016 as a reference point and using my 'sickly' VWAP maths.


These are my findings:

From 4th Jan 2016 till July 2019 (bottom of the last bear run to a 'perceived' bottom of the next bear run)

Using HLC Prices [Mean price=32.1, SD= 9.23]

Using VWAP [Mean Price = 25.41, SD= 5.85]

From the VWAP, GTB neared the mean price of 25.41 when it traded at 25.70

If GTB reverses from here and doesn't breach that mean price(between last bear end and another bear end), then it shows:

(1) that prices actually revert to Mean between start of a bull run, peak and then decline to the end of a bear run. This should be the reference point and not any arbitrary point like Meshpip chose.

If it actually breaks the 4-year Mean Price of 25.41 and goes - 1SD away from it, this means that the price at that point will be (25.41 - 5.85). This is N19.56. This means that:

(2) Meshpip will be correct in his forecast but doesn't know the reference timeframe.


So we shall all await to see if GTB breaks the 4 year mean price of N25. 41.

...I am a bit confused by the use of your VWAP. This is a tool for intraday purpose & not the way you guys put it across here; maybe unna mean MVWAP which is a different thing. VWAP is used by big banks, investors when they decide to buy or sell on a particular day to determine if they are buying at a value or selling at a good price.

For example, if @Agba decided tomorrow to buy GTB, he wants to buy below VWAP. Being smart money, buying at the prevailing price is not a value, hence needs to buy below VWAP. He can decide to by 1 STD or 2 STD below VWAP - meaning he's buying at a discount for that day. Same goes to when he wants to sell.

Using VWAP for more than 1 day trading is erroneous! May be you guys mean different thing which I don't know but definitely not VWAP

BullBearMkt:
HAS THE FORUM TURNED INTO COMPETITION?
With amusement, I have read various posts in the past couple of days. I keep wondering, if there is a prize to earn if anyone could predict accurately the reversal point for GTB? Will the right person be awarded a $50,000 prize or nothing? If there is no award, then count me out. But if there is any and is less than $50,000 - still count me out. However, if the award is over $50,000, then I AM IN!

Even at that, can I accurately tell the exact price point the stock can reverse & begin the rally? In all honestly, I cannot. I can only predict a possible zone based on past data and as we know, "Past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes" - says disclaimer from many professional analysts.

I've always admired your maturity BBM

meshpips:
When a young lad is felling a tree, it is the elderly person that knows where the tree will land.

I dey wait una. Small by small una don dey reach the same page with me.

I will be patient with you guys. My people say person wey dey stammer sabi him papa name, just give am time, he go pronounce am fully.

I will be patient and wait. I understand as e dey do una.

You didn't make reference to us not knowing statistics anymore. You don gentle abi.

BullBearMkt:

...I am a bit confused by the use of your VWAP. This is a tool for intraday purpose & not the way you guys put it across here; maybe unna mean MVWAP which is a different thing. VWAP is used by big banks, investors when they decide to buy or sell to determine if they are buying at a value or selling at a good price.

For example, if @Agba decided tomorrow to buy GTB, he wants to buy below VWAP. Being smart money, buying at the prevailing price is not a value, hence needs to buy below VWAP. He can decide to by 1 STD or 2 STD below VWAP - meaning he's buying at a discount for that day. Same goes to when he wants to sell.

Using VWAP for more than 1 day trading is erroneous! May be you guys mean different thing which I don't know but definitely not VWAP

The VWAP you described is the normal VWAP everyone knows.

The one Meshpips has been saying as his "almighty formula" is just a mere academic exercise used to determine the "technical" price of an asset as it falls. This js different from the "fundamental" price of the asset.

You did sciences in school, you should remember Bell curve for normal distribution.

This is used to distribute the data you get from the daily cumulative VWAP(the one you know) over a timeframe and then the calculate the mean and standard deviation.

Looking from 2016 when price started to rise till the Peak, you ride along this rise. Once bull ends and price starts to fall, you gather data to determine what the Mean price of the historical data you have gathered. The belief is that price falls towards that Mean price for that period.

However the disadvantage to this is that in between that start of the bull and the end of the bear, there are other peaks and troughs which other technical analysis tools would have detected and made money before the final bear ravages the market.

But someone who soley relies on buying at the Mean Price will keep waiting until he sees the Mean.

BullBearMkt:

...I am a bit confused by the use of your VWAP. This is a tool for intraday purpose & not the way you guys put it across here; maybe unna mean MVWAP which is a different thing. VWAP is used by big banks, investors when they decide to buy or sell to determine if they are buying at a value or selling at a good price.

For example, if @Agba decided tomorrow to buy GTB, he wants to buy below VWAP. Being smart money, buying at the prevailing price is not a value, hence needs to buy below VWAP. He can decide to by 1 STD or 2 STD below VWAP - meaning he's buying at a discount for that day. Same goes to when he wants to sell.

Using VWAP for more than 1 day trading is erroneous! May be you guys mean different thing which I don't know but definitely not VWAP

Kindly note sir that what I do is NOT VWAP. I do my proprietary volume - adjusted price computation. The closest thing I can use to explain it to people is by referring to VWAP.

Secondly, if you were trained on "scale-ability" or prototype designing you will be able to scale out the same principle used in computing VWAP and extend it's use to ANY period of choice.

Simply replace your day with MONTH or YEAR and maintain the same ratios in your computation.

So, your thought about VWAP not being suitable for use except for intraday purpose in INCORRECT.

I have mentioned many times that once you buy below my recommended TRUE price or VOLUME - ADJUSTED price, you have an EFFICIENT entry. Same as the "big banks" do.

I will leave the other parts of my proprietary system out of any other discussion and quite possibly might not respond to any other person's post about me or my system going forward.

Una dey use style receive free lecture.

Abeg make I enjoy my Sunday jare.

Good afternoon Mr BullBearMkt
Plus UAC has dropped price from 5.50 to 4.50.
I am waiting for 3.25 ( year peak price 9.75/3) before entry.
Plus your advice

Good afternoon Mr Meshpips
Please,UAC has dropped price from 5.50 to 4.50.
I am waiting for 3.25 ( year peak price 9.75/3) before entry.
Plus your advice

Plus any news from Transcrop

RabbiDoracle:


The VWAP you described is the normal VWAP everyone knows.

The one Meshpips has been saying as his "almighty formula" is just a mere academic exercise used to determine the "technical" price of an asset as it falls. This js different from the "fundamental" price of the asset.

You did sciences in school, you should remember Bell curve for normal distribution.

This is used to distribute the data you get from the daily cumulative VWAP(the one you know) over a timeframe and then the calculate the mean and standard deviation.

Looking from 2016 when price started to rise till the Peak, you ride along this rise. Once bull ends and price starts to fall, you gather data to determine what the Mean price of the historical data you have gathered. The belief is that price falls towards that Mean price for that period.

However the disadvantage to this is that in between that start of the bull and the end of the bear, there are other peaks and troughs which other technical analysis tools would have detected and made money before the final bear ravages the market.

But someone who soley relies on buying at the Mean Price will keep waiting until he sees the Mean.

...then if it's not VWAP don't let us call it VWAP. I wonder how "an average" value can provide you definite point for reversal. No wonder the rate of failure of academia professionals, trying to trade stocks, is high. Simple price action and/or Volume by Price could give you idea what you should expect price may do in the future.

meshpips:
I had sent you a direct message but don't bother replying. I wanted to send you one stock that has done amazingly beautiful things and closed bullish for the past two months with very excellent volume done. A stock that has breached its ten year volume high but your profile shows that you are the detective hired to come confirm that I am a scam Cheers!

This guy ehnnnn.

Good afternoon Mr BullBearMkt.
Please I am waiting for your reply

Good afternoon Mr Meshpips.
Please I am waiting for your reply

Who else did not understand a thing in this VAP or WAP discussion/calculation?

meshpips:
Una dey use style receive free lecture. Abeg make I enjoy my Sunday jare .

Lol. Enjoy.

Mcy56:
Who else did not understand a thing in this VAP or WAP discussion/calculation?

Me sef been think say na LAP, abi TAP.

Too much book dey give bald head o!

Na only God go save person from all these kain people wey metamorphose from "forest" trading into equities.